Avsnitt 563 - Dags för nyårscase

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.

0:33I'm back in Stockholm. It's nice to sit here with you. It's the first winter home on 15 years. We'll see how it goes. How glad I'm feeling here in a few weeks. It's so old to see you pulse in the snow. It's just a little bit of a winter environment. I talked about the last episode we played in here about the end of the year's biggest-stown position. It was a little bit of a new one. Skit, I think I'm wrong. Yeah, now it's a little bit of a new one. I'm going to get a little bit of a new one here. Now I'm going to get to the Ted Gärdstad and Satellite to all of my poolers on YouTube. Just for a nice day.

1:11Man should be able to get the small winters. This can crash when it's as well. There's a lot of fun. I've also got questions. What do you think it can go to? To the moon. Man får be glad when it goes well. And then you'll be happy when it goes bad. Just. It's the best I think I was when I was on the open in Paris. When it opened up 4%. Then you got a little jump from them there. Exactly. You got a little hope in all of a sudden. How has the new year been for you? Börsmässigt? It was not open so many days. but you have been in the USA and they have been open and the few days that Sverige has been open Yes, and we have been doing a little longer jubilead here it's like your home market, geopolitics, where it's full fest It's full of us it's been a lot not so much trading maybe but it's been a lot to try to get out okay, where are we on the way?

2:04Typ so Podden Sportsryd will be able to solve the questions a little bit later here Then we talked about how it started. It has really continued. Where we started. Rymdh, AIH, Försvarshås, Silverguld etc. Then we talked about a change. Then a geopolitical. Then we went to a little year's case. Where you have big big time. Exactly. It's a bit of a minute. It's a lot to take. Råvaror, geopolitical. Allt on the way. We're going to go.

2:44We have with us Robomarkets. And a new year, new opportunities for the USA. What say you, Lone Wolf? You always find gold power there. Yes, it's full of us. It's a rimmed company, it's a raw company. It's AI. It's AI. It's many different topics. At least at the beginning of the year it was a good drag. Trump is still ute and I was going to handle Klana for example He could capped On the rentals on a grid So Klana was up 10 % And then he was going to 5 % So in the USA there are always Kraftiga rörelser And then you can handle both long and Kortsida and if you're long You can handle with ISK With a lot of money so you don't let the dyra Exactly, ISK is in dollar or euro and then it's not a growth and it's also a hedge with ETF I saw that ARKs Space and Defense ETF is up 20 % here on a month and via Robomarket so you can get to very many ETF so you can't get to as other markets so you can handle Yes, it can be a good way to get to explore for example a raw product it's also a raw product that's where you have physical raw product and then you can get to direct explore to spot price So it can be great to look at it.

4:09It's all from uranium ETF, it's like I said, rymd - and defense ETF, gold, silver. They've been stuck to it and still have it. Then you don't forget to buy a company. Then you get a broad portfolio. It's like now when the price is so much, so can ETF be very good. Exactly. If you want to try it, you can also use TradingView. Then you can handle directly in graph and so on. If you're interested in code, you can try to get a good strategy. It's a great compliment. If you want to get more into trading. Yes, exactly. If you're not a kund at Robomarkets, then you can just hear it to Max and Simon on Stockholmskontoret.

4:55They help you to set up a konto. Then you can just go to the different markets that you have to give. Thank Robomarkets. But remember, investering in your risk and it's not sure that you'll get back your investerable capital.

5:12And we'll start with how the year has been. It's been a lot of all time high, a lot of big money, it's a theme. I was on the strand, it was a day we had been stoned after 13 days or some of these, some of these, I understand. And Atlas opened up 6-7 % up. Börsen gick up 2-3%. Man loggade in i någon terminal och den till och med visade fel priser på i Mex. Så det stod att det var upp 3%. Jag stod på stranden och förstod ingenting. Men det har varit ganska sjuka rörelser åt alla håll och kanter. Och sen, de sjukaste har väl nästan varit i försvarsbolagen. Jag tror Saab är upp 20 % här på några dagar, känns det som.

5:55Man tror ju, i vissa bolag så känns det som att nytt år, det årsskiftelscase, då börjar man om och så vänder trenden, men i många fall känns det som att man har bara laddat om kanonerna så har det blivit sinnessjukt i det som var hett förra året, eller? Ja, framförallt är det många som var kanske underviktade en sektor som gick väldigt bra förra året och då ska man ta i nästa år. Eller så var det vårt besök där på Saab-kontoret. Det måste jag ha varit det. Då tyckte man väl att aktien hade gått mycket när vi var där men aktien står ju nu i 700, de har ju splittat. I think they were up 1 200 % since invasion.

6:33It says a lot about how long so these trends are. It was over 4 billion dollars on Nasdaq. I'm still following the omsetting every day. It's much about a paper that is over 1 billion dollars. It's just a few thousand companies that do it. It's just a day. And then it's a big new thing in some of these OMEX 30 companies. You know what it is for the enormous price of this. The feeling is very peace and feelings I saw that ARK has a space and defense fund That's up 20 % on a month Is it such a type of fund or what are you asking? I think it started with more For more than a year For a year And then you have got inflöden And then you have to buy Saab here Is that so you think?

7:23Absolutely Geopolitiken has gone more to the the first part of the It has not been so that no one is less interested in to buy a weapon than in December I have a hard time to see I have tried to look at the the future of the it is not Alekta has bought a little first Apan has sold a lot of Saab but otherwise you don't see any buy-in. And that's the foreign country, that it's custodian and like that. That's not any buy-in. It's more fonder, which is not a kött-and-blod-a-gare. Yeah, exactly. And it is sector-allocering. And there is Saab and we're in a and it's And it's I saw a graph that it had gone down 20-25 % in The first thing was going to be in the first place.

8:20Now they took it back to the top. The Saab skipped the dip. They just went straight on instead. With 30 % more. So it's just a good rating. You should look at some years out. It's not next year Saab should be able to do it. And the SOS was out there. They thought that the state should be able to do it. So it was some people who speckled it here. It was a good thing to invest in the future. What do you think about the state? What's the idea of the theory? It's more like that they do a new emission than that the state has done. For it's not that the capital is so big. We should have a little bit of a cashier-rabat if we should put a lot of big orders.

9:01Yes, exactly. But it's not just a order. I think Saab has... All the Europas forsvarsindustri... We are doing smart things on the market, but we don't have a volume on anything. It's that problem. That's what the problem is. Tyskare gör en, stridsvagn, fransmen gör en, italianerna ska ha sin egen grej. Problemet där är att vi får ingen volym på reservdelar och sånt då. För alla ska ha olika saker. Det är där USA, och nu kommer vi snart in på det här geopolitiska, men det är där USA i NATO är så himla viktig. För att de tillverkar så fruktansvärt mycket av allting. Medan vi tillverkar lite men bra grejer, men vi kan liksom inte samköra det.

9:42And it's like many other companies I've talked about Kebney I've seen Offzone, it's Clavis It's a lot of other companies The new Argo And they've lost here after the year There's no HS under the year But now it's like They've gone pretty bad And so it's just in Saab I don't know I haven't done anything I've handled a Saab from the last time I thought I came back to a Rekmacka Alla ligger snett, I'm coming in It went down 2 % Now we played in here on the afternoon So it was plus again But it seems like many traders Are going to be short here Then maybe it's a little more on the side But it's been a Sigma 9 event It's not that never happened there It's just a little But have you done anything to say I don't think that I've seen that many have been short It's logistic if you look at the value And how fast it has gone up and so.

10:42I don't want to say so much. No. Then it can be something that this will start to become big politics. And then absolutely, if they take in the money or if they will go in, then maybe they will be short there first. But then I don't know if they will be after. I don't know if I should go down. I don't know. It's not a flip there on the regerings. Just the supply industry is not a free and efficient market if we say so. Absolutely. I understand why you're going to be short on the value of the company. It comes a lot of conference conferences here. It was it in Sälen. It was not just that I thought.

11:29It comes to the big ones in my mind. But absolutely. I Sälen also. It's clear that it's more buzz in the sector. so that it maybe it's, you know, you can follow what's happening on them, what's happening in Europe we're going to get in on all this here with Grönland and there came it to that Sweden would be able to sit on the other theme that has been on, so it has well, you've been able to do it with my little snedgunga in your company there, and you're really militarily, and you're really good of zone, it goes really good so, yeah, it it's very, many are well in it it's very it's it's that it's not that that the Rymden will be a 2026-tema.

12:09Antingen is you're in a small voice here, that it's many smart people who believe it, and then it will be a mass. Or when many believe it, it's not that. But it has it started very strong. And it's more the SpaceX that you've mentioned earlier. Yeah, exactly. SpaceX IPO sats absolutely Rymdsektorn on the card. Then you have Defense, also the power. And this goes in with each other. Rimbolagen är inte längre bara en pojkdröm utan det är en del av försvarsindustrin Och det är inte riktigt att man ska åka till Elon Musk Vi ska inte till Mars Det är inte det det handlar om, utan det är satelliter det är uppkoppling att inte kunna störa ut Man ser nu i de här kopplingen Man stör ut saker, Starlink hjälper Iranierna att kunna fortsätta ha uppkoppling om man har sådana här Starlink moduler app So it's such a thing.

13:05Missilsystem. Rymden is absolutely super important for the forsvarsindustrial. We'll talk a little more there in year-to-scipleskris. And another topic that has been still is silver and gold. We had the big of the big of the big of the big of the big of the big of the big of the Silver was going to about 70 dollars. It was very bad. But it was a mega-goal Then it was a new high 85, 87, 88 And it was a little spotlight-actie Silverware And the stocks that are connected to silverware It was a little bit with Venezuela Now it was with Fed, Trump It was a little bit of the area Around the metal All the way goes to their way inflationen, dollar försvagas det kommer lägre inflation det är ett tema som bara spinner vidare här ja, hard assets alla råvaror går ju bra oljan är väl sist ut ur startbåset den har jag också vänt lite precis det är helt sjukt att det vill till att det nästan blir krig i Iran innan den läns orkar lyfta men den lyfte ju lite kring Venezuela också men sen det var ju väldigt Små rörelser egentligen I alla fall om man hade fått spå innan Men så ja, råvaror, det är en svagare dollar Dollarn trendar neråt Jag tror väl att vi får en reversal Alltså en rekyl På den trenden ner Borde ju komma här någonstans kanske Men samtidigt Nu har ju Justitiedepartementet i USA Har ju då Gått på Fed För deras rapportering av siffror Alltså kostnader and book-saving in terms of the renovation of the fact and it's his I don't know what his name is Pulte who has initiated this and it's best for it can you understand because it's not really good for it it's very good exactly the end of the skilling is that if Biden had done it it would have been that he would do Fed-overover then they would have said but Fed is just politically and it can be We got CPI-siffra today, the one was less again.

15:30So if you look at it objectively, it's a little bit of a high. And then it's not so common that a president says to Fed that they should be able to sell it or so. Historically it's not so common. It's not that it's not that Fed actually allows us to be on. that they get criticism and people who are up and screaming at them when they do something yeah, all right let it go, you say it what you say, it's all the time so it has always happened so it's been a bit when you don't even say anything and I think that you absolutely can say it to Fed, for they have very bad track record also and our Riksbank should we not talk about so, but that they are oberoende i sitt beslutstagande.

16:22Ja, det får man förutsätta att de är. Annars sitter det fel människor där. Så, ja. Vi får se. Jag tror inte att Trump kommer göra sig av med Powell. Han kommer av. Det är ju bara några månader kvar han sitter. Nu var det någon Blackrock-kille som han... Ja, som han var på intervju. Så, ja. Vi får se. Vad tror du om det här temat med Maduro och det här att det finns inga säkra tillgångar? Man håller på med De beslagtagna ryska tillgångarna Det är ju dåligt för dollar Ja det är dåligt för dollar Men jag tänker mer att då köper folk hard assets Då köper man silver och guld För då köper du guldtacker och förvarar någonstans Om du ska fly ditt land Eller om du är mega-ri Oavsett så vill du ha investeringar i hard assets Det är väl lite det som för 2026 Vi ska prata lite om vad vi tror på Det är mitt genomgående tema Du vill ju ha Warren Buffett och de pratar om margin of safety alltså hur långt ner är värderingen mot assets i ett bolag det är ju det, du vill ha hard assets där och det är väl svårt att säga med en guldtacka om den ska stå i 1000 dollar eller 4500 just guld är lite svårare men det blir väl en försäkring mot att ditt land eller någon skulle komma och ta dina assets ja och sen är ju just dollarsvagheten är ju att ju oroligare det blir så vill ju folk ta hem kapital and we go in in this orion.

17:48And for the time did dollar always go up on the orion? Yes. Can you think? Yes, exactly. But the difference is that we were so over-wicked in the USA in this orion. So we saw in the beginning of the year and that dollar began to go down and people began to take home and it became a piano now when you were in the year and everyone said how much they were on the dollar on the valutexponering in the dollar. so you can see it even more you don't see it in the price of the price no but it's different sectors I have not started like a I don't think it's a staking not as a raw product it depends on the sector that's the best it's a raw product and there's still trend with Gemini Apple and Google AI For every day it's like it's coming new Rapport about that OpenAI is not going to I haven't found any good way to expose me But it's like it's a good idea Yeah, but they're not going to sell it They have no own chip Google uses their own And maybe Softbank was someone who tipsed them They were the biggest owner of OpenAI That you could have shorted them Precis And the one has gone Fantastic here in the end For the first time I saw the Hyperliquid som är någon kryptomarknad.

19:14Där kan du handla en open AI-aktie. Och där handlar den typ all time high. För där går det bara efter senaste runden. Men jag vet inte. Skapa något nytt konto på en konstig börs och sen tjorta grejer. Det låter för komplext. Men jag tror att det finns en trade där att korta det som exponerar. Microsoft är väl också det. De är ju stora ägare. Men där tror jag inte kursen kommer röra sig så mycket om det skulle kapsa i... I think that the competition is hard in AI. Trump has said that the consumer should not price for the build-out, but it will take the tech-bolag themselves to be if it will be marginal press.

20:00In all year 2000. He is also talking about the el. There is a stark theme for 2016. that the price has gone up in the USA and the potential can be still going up and then they have been able to buy their own and buy mini-reactors and like that is the goal with all the AI-data center and so and he was out and said that you should stand for the itself and now said Microsoft that they should take the note but like to find different companies where they can exposure to get up at the use of the use that will go up so much there I think it's really good exactly and with that so It's interesting to be the råvaror.

20:37I'm going to poplar uranium. One of my cases for 2016. Uranium-pris. Bananas.

20:49It's a lot that happens at the same time. And the råvaror is going to be... Will you be able to physically lagra? Exactly. I'm going to be able to do some ETFs.

21:06Today we have a new sponsor, and it's Avanza. It's almost all of them have a relationship with. Exactly. And it's very many who have a relationship with Avanza. They have 2 ,2 million customers. They are the biggest platform in Sweden. Yeah, and it's very nice to be here. It was here you started your career. You rang in order on your time, or? So old, isn't it, actually. One time I've been talking about it, when I've been talking about it in the USA. of so many things. But we both started our börskarriärer on Avanza, as many others I think. Yeah, it's often it's a clear decision if you want to learn more if you're active or if you're just a fan of a spare.

21:46Exactly. They have a website and an app that's very very good to be able to be able to find out and botanize it on. Yeah, there's a lot of info. We're going to focus a little on the report period for example. There are they AI-sammanying in some days. It can come very many reports Then it can be smidish If you're maybe a little bit If you're a little bit in Or you're following a company So you'll get a A-I-sammansfattning On the report you want to read Or if it comes a lot of reports So you can choose some of them And then you'll get a little bit more Yeah, but really And then when it comes a hundred-tals reports So it can be all for much reading But at least you want to read What happens here Or the important bits And then it's really good to stop sitting with Ctrl F because you can get an AI-sammansfactor and get an overview of this or not and then you can get a decision there.

22:40And sometimes if it's a big deal in a company that you might also have a big deal so you can quickly know why. And these AI-sammansfactor are a very good tool to get faster to what is the key in what happens. Yes, exactly. And then they've also launched an analysis With estimate, analytics estimate, it's very much what's on the market. So then you can see both the fact-actical numbers, but then the front. Both in 12 kvartals and year. And it's a lot when you look at the big companies. It's a lot of analytics that follow. It's a lot of analytics that follow. It's a lot of analytics. How do you get results in?

23:18How do you get results? How do you get results? And this is what you get. So I usually write down on a paper what they expect. What are the analytics in the world? What are they expecting? And then some reports. Some come in mid on the day. It's often after the analytics estimate. It's a matter of time. And then it's about to be on the hook. Yes, really. And it's especially very much time. Börsen is on expectations. There are bad news that come. But a company doesn't react to it. Because it's inprisated for the course. So a lot of estimate is super important. And before you let it down, it's been very difficult.

23:55Man går in på olika sidor i olika estimat och man försöker hitta vad är marknadens förväntningar på till exempel en rapport och sådana saker. Och då är ju det här superbra. Man går in på en aktie, man ska rulla ner analys och sen så är det det. And like that, if you're an Excel-guru and you're working and you're working on yourself, then you can also compare yourself with analytics, if you're better or worse, or if you're more positive or more negative than what's in the world. And then you can also see how you can expand yourself, if you think about something very similar to what analytics are.

24:31Precis. So, summa summarum, it's easier and easier to see if a company is worth a premium or a rabat compared to the expectations of the expectations? Yeah, but exactly. So if you want to have a better and smart decision, then you're going to be a kund with Avanza. And if you're a kund with Avanza, then you're not sure that you've got all these new things yet. Exactly. And it's what we've been thinking about here in the future. What they have for different functions and how they can use them. But remember that Sparafonder and Akties have been a good way to get to the money to grow, but no one can see in the future.

25:06So, the price can be a lot of power. and it's not safe that you can get back your money. Exactly. Risk and reward hänger ihop. Stort tack Avanza!

25:21And then geopolitics. Trump took Venezuela. It had we not known to talk about in the pod. We had the first episode of the episode. You sat up on Polymarket. Cashed in. I cashed in on one of the bets. I had to get it on the year. It was the most of the year. But this happened a few days after. nyår. Och du satt inte kolla de här pizzabeställningarna som man kan göra? På Pentagon? Nej, det gjorde jag inte. Ja, det var väl rätt odramatiskt, kan man väl säga. Det var superdramatiskt, men det gick väl, man måste väl säga att det gick mycket enklare än man trodde. Och oljepriset hände inte så mycket.

25:58Han påstår ju att hans mål här är att få in jättemycket investeringar och liknande. Det känns som att de är ganska negativa oljebolagen. Det är ingen som har rusat in här. and it's a little like the the key to the power of the power that you have super guarantee of the US, for what happens if Trump stops, what happens if it becomes a new government in Venezuela, it's not just to pump in hundreds of billions of dollars here in a super-usag. No, they have been outkastated a few before. So, it's not that you know. So it's a very much, now it's a conversation. Yeah, it just went around a lot of grap about that they have the world's biggest oil reserve but it's not really It's the same thing as Saudi Arabia.

26:38It's a different type of oil. It's a different type of oil. It's a different type of oil. It's good for Venezuela to sell their their own oil to the USA. They can sell their fracking oil, which is a light oil that we need. So our oil and the oil oil is going down. We're less dependent on the oil. For what people think, we still buy it. so i forlängningen blir det ett slag mot den nyska ekonomin och mot Kina och en doping av ekonomin om oljeenergipriserna går ner inflationen, det löser ju absolut så slår det ju på alltså slår ner inflationen men dit har vi inte kommit än det har inte hänt så mycket sen själva fritagandet framförallt den stora viktiga frågan är ju att väst It's more powerful and China and Russia are weak.

27:38It's the content of it. And as a European so it's positive. So there it's a little bit of this that it's a little bit if Iran falls and Venezuela falls then there are not so many interests that are that are important in the world. Syrien, Assad, borta. So then there is Kina och Ryssland helt ute i Mellanöstern Sydamerika är nu under USAs kontroll Ja, det är bull väst Bull börsen, det är en peace dividend Det är lite som en sovjetfäll Så man behöver inte passa ner sig se nattsvart på framtiden utan snarare ljust i förlängningen Sen kan vi få finanskriser och sånt och alla sådana där grejer Men grundförutsättningarna ser ju bättre ut på lång sikt Och sen när du skriver Grönland och Taiwan?

28:32Den läskigaste frågan är Taiwan. Grönland är också lite läskigt. Jag är inte så skraj för att om USA skulle styra Grönland eller om Danmark gör det. Jag skulle i och för sig vara lite orolig om Danmark verkligen bestämde över Grönland helt och hållet själva. Det är lite som att vi i Sverige, Luxemburg skulle säga att vi garanterar säkerheten på Gotland. Nej, det hade inte känts jättetryckt. Så det måste ju till en deal. I can draw the angle on Grönland militarily Why it's so important People can't really understand it But the world is round Grönland is Jättestrategic, jättevictic Grönland, Island, UK It's like a long sun Look at the world We were in on the power before We can't use ammunition And anything with volume And all of a sudden We have the world's length of the east front from the north of Norge to the Havs.

29:31The length of the war is longer than the war under the Kallakrig. And we will be able to save the whole of the We will be totally dependent on the supply of the US And the one who sits on the Grönland will be able to control the North Atlantic. So if Russia and Kina should have control over the border then we have two fronts. We must be able to save the North Atlantic and the East Front. North Atlantic then it's a few weeks and then we will be able to get it but we will be able to get it. It's the reality. Denmark has not to have a weapon on the Danish territory. We have to have a weapon on the Grönland because we have to meet Moscow without they can react from the Grönland.

30:12We have to have a boat, we have to have a hangar, so if we have to have a Grönland in Europe then it's a trillion of investment we need to do for to build up a superpower so that we can save it it's not for, absolutely but it's going to be required to be able to do it Denmark has not to be able to to hold schools open on Grönland with its 600 million dollar bidrag so Denmark can't do it, so it's all Europe that's going to do it and if you don't want to do it as a politician, then you need to think to funderar on whether you want to deal with a deal. And I wonder if Denmark actually does it. The people are good at dealing with it.

30:56All the people are always doing it. Exactly. So I wonder if the whole Europe helps Denmark to make up the report on Grönland and then hoppa Denmark over the rest of the country and then sit our other European politicians there and just make a little bit of a deal with the USA. I know that this is a very controversial question. I'm for that to keep Grönland, but then it wanted to make atomic batteries Bhargafartyag and patents that we put on the ground for that is also smelt. Because of the world, the world has become warm. So, is in Antarctica smelt, so Nord Passagen, you can also go from Asien to Europe.