Avsnitt 564 - Ett parti Risk på Davos-expressen

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party. Thank you.

0:45Bolagsfronten? Ja, det händer grejer överallt. Och nu är Davos den här veckan också. Ja, det har väl aldrig känts så hett med Davos. Det har känts iskallt här de senaste åren. Det beror ju på vem som kommer. Ja, nu känns det som att alla... Trump är där den här gången. Ja, alla ska dit, alla ska prata med varandra. Vi har haft Trumps utspel, vi har haft Bone Support som vi hade i nyårsportföljen. Kommer ju samma kväll med sina siffror, så det ska vi prata lite om. Sen hade vi Betssons vinstvarning i fredags. And then we have the trend that still feels like the first, the pro-varor, AI feels not like that.

1:24But it has not come to crash there either. It's like for the year's trend that we go on. And then you can take Davos and Grönland. Go to the next? No, I don't. No? No. Go to Grönland. Någonstans must we go to our correspondent on the continent. Here you can go to a skidor but not in the world. You can handle on a net-sat-länk on Grönland. They have actually an Arktis niche. There we have also had a lot of action. So it's a lot to talk about and so long we don't forget your 10 minutes of monology about Grönland is I'm happy. It's just one. Yeah, it's just one. We're going to go.

2:12We have with us Robomarket, so there I thought we'd talk a little about TradingView. It's the end of the svensk market where you can handle your ISK in TradingView. You don't need to sit with 8 screens if you're using graph and like that, but you can handle directly in graph via TradingView. You can handle your ISK in SEC, but you can handle your EUR and in dollar. It's on the US, it's very much. It's always good action. Tesla has been a lot. What do you say about any action that doesn't have been a lot in the USA compared to Sweden? It's hard. It's going to be a bet on it. Yes, exactly. But exactly.

2:53It's a euro or dollar is a good deal for you to get out of the way. Because it's already euro and dollar. And you can use a little algo-handel. You can do a lot of trading view. Yes, you can even code in trading view and prove strategies. So for the person who is a novice or wants to learn it's perfect to be able to take a trading view and try to do it via Robomarket. I've met these kind of technologists who set up more than stop and limit and then drive to play to live it. Exactly. And you can handle both in the ETFs and you mentioned that you can handle directly in the chart. It's also a good thing to set up and stop loss.

3:38And popular akties can be used by Tesla. It's super popular, especially at Robomarkets. And a lot of things that's a Honda's holding. That's a drone, technology and network. Yeah, just to say that all of the company are popular. So it's. So, if you're not a good at Robomarkets, it's time to create a konto and maybe create a demo and we can handle very easily. Exactly. Thank you. But remember, investering in your risk is not sure that you will get back your invest in capital.

4:19We start with Bone Support. They were just the numbers. It was a very blanked account. Here comes the numbers that were in line with the market. They were even 2026-siffror. They would have to go with 35%. It was a little better than I had. And then the 2025-siffror was a little worse than what they had guided. Because of the value and the like. It was still a good thing. Because people didn't know how they would be able to do this. Is it a winst warning? Is it an on-line? It was inline instead. And then when it opened, the day after, the kurs was up between 15 % and 20 % And the akties have gone very poorly in 2025 The company has gone pretty well And then it has been a lot of brus here in the middle With Brumme on the Zone-conference Where they have come with a lot of things I talked about the first week A lot of anklagelser The company is still blanked over 9 % One of the most blanked akties on the whole of the market and now after the crash has the crash come down and you want to see how blanks have acted I don't really think I've seen some mnemonic here it's like they've been taking it first day but it's still like it's coming in long-many people who buy akties not just just taking it it was not a super short squeeze but blanks were quite flat blankningarna och nu efteråt så passar de ju på när börsen går dåligt.

5:55Jag är köpsugen nu när liksom hela världen skakar då vet man inte riktigt när man ska ta in saker. Aktien var uppe i 220 för hon har handlat liksom som lägst 175 och nu idag när vi spelar in så är aktien tillbaka på 197. Väldigt stora rörelser, det har det väl varit i många bolag kan man väl säga. Men speciellt här har du någon vi på Bonesupport or? Nej, jag noterade väl blankningarna har jag gjort. Några av argumenten för dem. Eller från dem, blankarna. Jag blir inte jättesugen på att ta rygg där. På blankarna eller långkillarna? Nej, på blankarna. Ja. Nej, men liksom du har ju jättehöga bruttomarginaler, kan de fortsätta växa.

6:45Det är ju ett väldigt fint bolag om det fortsätter så här. Aktien handlas ju they have high value in I think it might be up to 40 times and now maybe you can get it to 17 or something, something year so the actuals have come down and has been historically billed can they continue with this they have been waiting on a new FDA-sync that will come under the year that will come out they have been just penetrated 2 % of the market so it's not even in the beginning of the year they have had a lot of insider-köp so yeah it's been a lot of argument in both of the the one-show it's been a lot of it's been a lot of blanking has been a little bit with their tese but they have so right it's what makes it that when a company is 9 % blank it's not many times on the svensk market that a lot of times that a so an aktie has gone rakt up absolutely it's a tough brand I think I both the korta and what long is actually when it's trend and all Det köpt in all rikstägnyning, men t.ex.

7:50Det är svårt att syna, det är ju de här studierna och sånt, att de ska vara rättgjorda och sånt. Det är väl det vissa blankare hävdar att de är felgjorda. Och det ska vara en av, liksom, några av de mest erkända sjukhusen i världen, att det skulle vara fejkat där och liknande. Så det är grova anklagelser. Exakt, och att det skulle varit fel på studierna där och sånt. Spontant så tycker jag att det bara måste finnas enklare sojournal kandidater där ute. Typ så. So I have not bought in But if you are very initiated and can see such a thing Yeah, I can't But if you take a box So have the actual More buy here For they have slated numbers And it has not In the blanks have played out You can come in line You can guide Good after next year The actuality has been down So if it had not been That's the whole thing Then had the actuality Come down But I will probably dopa tårna här snart och skapa en liten bevaknings...

8:48Man ser potentialen på när de ser på sina siffror här. Ja, men precis. När blankarna fick 15-20 % rakt upp i Raya-Lay. Exakt. Det känns väl lite mer det här fondflödet. Vad finns köparna på den svenska börsen? Exakt. Så får man väl estimera någonstans var blankarna har sitt break-even. Så kommer det bra news. Så över de nivåerna kanske det täcks. It was a little bit of a fan that they would have to send out this. But it's the only thing they can do is to deliver good numbers. They don't want to go on a fighter or send out a press conference. They want to send out a blank and like that. You can do it and work on it in the same way.

9:28So it will be done by itself. If we go on to Betsson, were you on the spot when the winters came? No. Not yet, it was a dream trade. I was going to be snubber. det jag hörde var väl att den var ner 6 % och då tänkte folk att det här borde räcka och sen helt plötsligt var den ner 20 % och här är väl också ett scenario som spelar ut alla tjatar om Turkiet blankningen har väl inte gått upp så mycket här men aktien har gått dåligt och sen att börsen alltid är 6 månader före och sen så kommer en vinstvarning och sen så går det ner och det har ju varit mycket i media om att Erdogan har stramat åt i Turkiet de har ju den här stora B2B-kunden rejäl that all of them had been on the podcast.

10:12What are other podcasts? Are it 100 % of the income? Are it not that? When you listened to an interview with Pontus Lindvall, they didn't do anything. You don't get anything on the face. It feels either that they don't want to show the konkurrent or that they don't want to show how big the income comes from here.

10:34Affärsvärlden grävde fram that it could be to the best of the number of income from 100 % of the interest. I think that a so number is still that Betsson uses Turkey as a mjölkko. There are high marginalintäkter that you can do a lot of satsing on. If Turkey would not do a lot of other satsing on. That it is 100 % of the interest is because it just sprutes in from Turkey now. Now they are on Sydamerika and a lot of other countries. If the cranes would be stung out of the interest skulle de väl kapitalallokera, då skulle de inte gasa lika mycket. Och då så mycket inom betting som jag förstår det är väl mer att det är marknadsföring, marknadsföring, marknadsföring.

11:17Och så är det ROI på den marknadsföringen. Så om du har en mindre budget, då får du väl högre marginal, men då har du inte lika stor marknadsandel. Precis. Så 100 % av vinsten kan ju kanske för lekmän låta lite värre än vad det kanske betyder. Absolut. Sen de där intäkterna, jag vet inte, kanske, om det skulle vara så, That it completely That it completely disappears Yeah But also that it has been a so big deal I don't know, I thought I thought, but not to have noticed It's on Liren I think I think they have a value-exponering Yeah The whole thing is pulvered Absolutely People try to say that this is a crypto casino For it's so banned So you can't play with Liren Fast the price of the price Borde kanske to disappear I don't know.

12:07It's over my valutakunskap. Yeah, but I thought it was online casino that you can get in. But in crypto casino, I don't know. But it's a company that you don't have the institution to buy more private. They have a lot of purchase. It's not a lot, but it's still inside-go. So it's also Also as a true caller. With its return to the market. Bolagen can't see the these These new ones. Or if you want to use the return to To buy a dyr course. I have no idea. Betson will have a low value. Often when it has happened. It feels like it goes in cycles. It goes very well. How much is Turkey? And then comes a dip.

12:58And then it has been a nice job. It's hard to say if it's 100 % here. or if it's on 70 but they've been extremely good on to get to and create a lot of income and winters. Some said that a large part of the income was personal and higher skatter in other countries. It didn't really have Turkey - they talked about that it was a B2B-Kund that had had a little worse. Which is probably Turkey. And that you do jättemycket satsningar inför fotbolls-VM det ska ju bli ett väldigt bra bettingår när man har fotbolls-VM och Betsson har ju gjort väldigt mycket reklam och köpt fotbollslagströjor eller spons på tröjor och så så vi får ju se den är säkert köpad här någon liksom inför det här bettingåret om nu inte Erdogan helt lyckas nu kom det ju någon ny nyhet att han sa att man kunde jämföra gambling med terrorism och liksom att han verkligen vill slå ner på det här it's more like he wants to get in an egen figure that he has a pooler or something else the turkiske market is I do I don't know, but how do you feel betting here or if you look at Kambi which I'm very much, he's down in 8 days in the USA, is it still a polymarket era where it comes new numbers all the time and it feels like the market is still not really aware.

14:32Now it's going to be that Goldman and a lot of professional aktors should create prediction market desk and sit and trade it here. I feel like people overshad it that it is 100 million dollars or like this, but it feels like extremely much trading here. It's not so that a private person lays a bet and so have the numbers become so big. It's probably very professional actors who sit and handle cashier and the market and the market and the other arbitrage which makes the volume on the market so much bigger if you compare it with that someone puts a bet on a Cambie-select. Absolutely. People put up in the book I don't know how they can count the volume on the market.

15:19You can get a little betalt for what you can do. likviditet. Jag såg även att man får betalt för att komma på alla ämnen. Det är det jag missat. Det kanske folk har missat men de har bett sen... Det är inte någon på Polymarket som sitter och kommer på allting. Nej, utan det kan man själv göra. Och sen får man betalt. Efter volymen bara, hur mycket som bettas. Hur mycket som omsätts så får man ju en som en liten fi. En kickback liksom. Så det är ju verkligen user-creator-content. And before I thought it was that they took no courtage, no commission, but they just wanted to sell their data to all the news.

16:01But now I've been waiting and I'll start with different... And like that, you'll get paid if you put it in the book. You and I can't start a prediction site if no one plays there. It must be some volume, it's hard to start a forum. It's no one in your prediction of the bet for the ones that have been taken down. So it's very strange that someone has tried this in Europe and now they have laid down in Sweden and like that. And then in the USA... It was probably a regleringsscape. No, I don't think it's just a bit of interest. That it's complicated. I think... In the USA is it so big for it's forbjudge it to all the states.

16:40So that this should blow on in five years for the fact that Trump's son or who it is, is a part of the polymarket. but I have to see that it is forbidden to bett in all states but Polymarket can just blow on it will open up it will open up or so will Polymarket be forbidden but then they will fly out and then people will lose it I think that Polymarket is the way to do it you have a platform you can bett on everything from politics to geopolitics to football to what Apple will be in the morning it's probably nobody that it should be. Yeah. I think that it's super good. I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean, Sports betting is a lot of more than what casino is.

17:34Yeah, And this is not casino. They're not going to play on a bunch of spars. Which I think is a lot of all right, that it goes to that it goes to that it goes to that it goes to that it goes to that it goes to It's very interesting to see five years away what happened with betting sites and what happened with prediction markets. Especially if I had something to do on the helges. Yes, exactly. Maduro. You had a Maduro bet here. Yes, exactly. What gave it? I had... What gave it? It gave three times, four times the same thing. It was good. Yes. I had one that was before the last December. You were not the inside that bett two hours before?

18:15No. And this happened 3 January or 2. It was a 3rd day of the day. But I had to bet on Mars also. That he was going to go back in March. So it was it. Now I have... What have I been doing now? Yeah, that Israel does not do anything. That he did not do anything against Iran before the last January.

18:39If we talk about crypto, it has been a risk-off here with the tulls. Crypto has come down a little. And in the morning came NYSE New York Stock Exchange with that they would launch tokeniserated handel. So it feels like the normal and the crypto-world will come near and near each other. Yeah, absolutely. Nysunnerheten, that they hold on with a platform tokeniserated, they have open 24-7. Then it was not a time plan that was communicated. But they have been up with the side of of the usual market. It is like the future. They see how crypto deals on the holidays and the and even the interest for polymarkets has just exploded.

19:27Now I think I think I'm I think in principle every article I'm going to read the market and then and then especially in politics and geopolitics etc. But even in the market and then Polymarket as a big market bygger on Ethereum block or Polygon so it's a smart contract and you see absolutely that the opportunity is there for in a budget where you can buy and sell and sell and you can handle dygnet around the world over it must be very attractive yes and there are we our partner Virtune which we have to get into when we want to get into crypto you have gone long here in the end of the year for the year yes Yeah, exactly.

20:13How do you think that? I think that Polymarket is a little bit like... I'm talking about Netscape. Netscape for those who don't know, was the first... ...that you could do on the internet. In all of a sudden, the use of consumer was interesting. And I think that Polymarket has been so outbred So they could call it for it Yes, exactly And we use Uvertune for they are regulated They are 100 % physically back Via Coinbase So it's offline It's easy and easy You can handle it via Nordnet Avanza Saver Montrose You can handle it on their ISK They have even products that give staking And extra extra and then it's just a choice of and then it's just a choice of which product you want to go along.

21:13Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana or their index or stablecoin. They have very many products so it's just a choice of which part of crypto-system you want to invest in. Or let them choose their Coinbase-products which have 50 % of the likes. Exactly. Antingen some of Altcoins or Bitcoin. In Bitcoins, I think it's interesting The spreader isär mot edermetallerna Rätt ordentligt Edermetallerna har fullständigt tjurusat Bitcoin står och stampar Och är volatil Och Ethereum och dem Det är liksom olika användningsområden Ethereum är ju sådär Lyft, Solana, XRP Det är liksom nätverk som man Bygger saker på Som Polymarket till exempel Eller vad heter de Cash Den andra Calci Calchi och även, jag tror Nyser bygger väl också på Ethereum-kedjan så man kan spana in alla de här och se vad det finns för olika sådana här användningsområden som bygger på själva tekniken och just den blockkedjan och se vad man kan vara intresserad av Ja, och vill man hitta någon av Virtunes produkter så är det bara att skriva in i sin mäklare så skriver man ju Virtune och så kommer ju hela listan upp och sen är det bara att välja sin exponering och vill man läsa mer så är det bara att gå in på Virtune.com Do it!

22:38If we go into a little Davos and Tullar and Grönland then it's 30 % chance that Tullar goes through on Sweden 1 February so it could be a good hedge if it goes through then it would be indexed but then you get 200 % 300 % three times the pengar now we don't have any percent-requence It's interesting that it's a good perspective. If we're going to hedge it before it's done, then we're going to hedge it on a way. Then you want to pinpoint what happens if this happens, what will we get most of the growth and what will most of the growth of this? The analysis is very long. Then you'll find it and then you'll find it in the best option with the lowest price against what you're doing.

23:29And I will argue that often You can get that When you've thrown it after When you're doing the Peace at event as you said, it will be much near the fact of event without needing to be able to react to the reaction. It can be stökish, but where does it go? Here can you get to get to the event risk. It's very interesting. It's a lot of more actors, more market makers, and more parts will begin to act. I think it's 13 % odds on that China invadiered Taiwan is on 13 % it's very many X so if you worry about it and you can do something then you can hedge on a certain way what says our correspondent he goes out with tullar and the world is shocked it was stängt in the USA and today is he going to be able to and try to make it out and try to make it here.

24:40The price has still got a net turn. How have you acted? How do you see it on the whole situation? I'm going to be on Friday. I'm going to be on the P500 but I took a discount on it today. Backtrading-king. It was hard to have slated extra clips about it. But I felt like long-hauled in the USA. It will be happening. I thought that it could be something to Iran was my opinion. So you got this instead? So I got this instead. And it's not as it we talked about it's not easy to hedge a event and know what's happening. I don't know if the regime in Iran had fallen in the helgen and the other had opened up.

25:20It's not all right. But I thought, no, man is quite long, I can have a lot of portfolio, it can be quite a bit short. And then it happened, it became even better. It's long, it's a lot of money, and get hälsat and so on. It was a bit of this. And the hedge position in the short S &P for other people. I got in the Corona with a long and a lot of big oil companies. This was a little bit of the opposite. It was like that to be able to get up with a gytja when the oil went to 0 and it was a long amount of oil companies. It was just that you were exponing to something that was a winnary. So it was a relative winnary when it was a lot of money.

26:02It's not a better feeling about the market. ETSA gick väl upp 15 % Igår eller någonting Och hade ju lite sån här Saab När Ryssland gick in i Ukraine moment Att den var på minus på morgonen Sådana här dagar när det blåser mycket Det är ner mycket, det är inte rationellt Då ska man ju titta på Och Saab var ju upp mycket Ja men Saab var ju upp mycket Råvaror, lång uranium Silver, platinum Alla de gick ju rakt upp Och hotelsat gick upp Mycket av det man var lång gick ju upp So it was just fun. And many of these, what you've seen on Saab, is that trend is much longer. Now Saab is on a whole... 40 %?

26:45...and on a level of the trend. It has been so long, but it's a bit the same. I would like to find more cases that we should make us over the USA. It's a little Saab trade, but it's not. That we should have their own satellite and their own offshore. Ofzone is also very good. på det här också har ju gått jättebra men liksom att oavsett att Trump skulle vända nu så har man ju fått en känsla, har ju folk fått upp ögonen för att det går inte att lita på USA kommande tre åren så då måste vi verkligen göra oss oberoende så jag tror liksom inte Etesats skulle gå rakt ner i backen bara för att han ändrade sig om Grönland utan folk har ju insett att vi måste göra oss väldigt oberoende av USA kommande tre åren Ja, jag tror inte ens det bara är kommande tre åren, jag tror att det är en ny inriktning och kanske en nyttig sådan för in Europa.

27:30And this is the first time I've talked to people in the finance industry where people on the way were really thinking about it. Innan it was more that some people should boycott some people. But not people as I've talked about it. But now it's like this has gotten a tipping point at that now are people really trutters. Grönland. There is a grænser. That they're going to take our grandlander. It's not that it's It's clear that you can summarize it so but there are still many things that it's 30 it's a lot of long and it's 58 ,000 If it had been a little Spanish so it had it not been the same I think that people are more that it's a Danmarks land You mean that we're svenskar?

28:14We're svenskar All I'm talking about here so it's going to be interesting I thought it was about it the first time that Americans have gone down 30 % for the year on Systembolag so it can just move and now when we went in here so came it at a dansk pensions fund They had to sell their treasuries Bonds in the US And they bought fransk Instead of them They buy european bonds I think It's a far way there That maybe Trump Till the end of the day He says that he stings off Dansk bankers I dollars It's not that It's not that He's a far way to trigger So it's like Or so I garvar now It's not because I think that his retorik Kring Grönland is right or something But It's not I'm very happy That this will be a deal I have read Art of a deal So then I think Just look at incitament I think more That the European analysis What the fuck have we done Skirt down kärnkraften, skurrt ner våra försvar vi har trott på mjuk power men grejen är att när det blåser i världen så är det ingen som lyssnar på någon för att vara snäll utan det, vad har du att erbjuda och vad kan du ställa till med sorry, så ser världen ut när inte alltid hanke dårig och man har råd att vara snäll och det är det som det är det det handlar om And in Europe we have given everything to everyone.

29:56We have outsourced our export to Kina. We have outsourced our security to Russia. And our energy to Russia. And that we have held on with 20 years. And then we sit and ask ourselves why no one listens to us. Hot with bazooka, handelsbazook. And it's the lesson that Europe has learned. We have been thinking about it. We have thought that we can not have a safe cost. We have had a margin with a lot of work, a lot of work, a lot of work, etc. For that the USA has been standing for safety. And it has been 20 years before that it has escalated. And the end I react to is that it's the same political that's going to be able to get the power of Putin

30:52that's going to be able to get us to the power of Putin that's going to be able to get the power of that now they should have a hard word and stand up and stand up for something that's ideal and I just thought that an ideal doesn't work in this way so I mentioned in the previous episode that I think that Denmark will do a deal I think that it will be so that USA will be able to They will probably do what they want to do on Grönland. It includes that we are in a churn-fri zone that is in Scandinavian. That of the deal must we have to do. For there is Grönland. You're not on any landstigning? No, but also if the USA is going to build all the infrastructure on Grönland and it doesn't mean all the way to do it.

31:40Danmark then will come and say now we will open a gruva here and use all the way I've been by and all the new hamnar and so we thought for the ones we should pay for so it works not so it's there it will be a deal I think yeah snart it's Gotlands turn so I fattar that retoriken is suverainty and all so but the fact that it will be a deal for or later It's a little bit of his goal. It's a realpolitik. Europa must learn to learn. Charlie Munger had an idea about how to make a offer. You never want to do yourself to a offer. No, it's hard to learn my own. Yes, exactly. To do things, to set up for risk and hope that someone else is happy with you so that you don't go out.

32:33It's not a good idea. Not as a nation. It's not good at all. So the big thing We have our own political team How do you play this on the Börsen? I saw Etesat was up Today it was up much more I'm not sure but it's up 50 % in a year So it's probably a sum of money What have you been doing? Saab I feel like it's a little bit I'm not sure, I'm not sure I want to say that Europe Flytta to the USA, your jävel I'm European so I just want to be strong again But the interesting thing is I think it's interesting to look at what happened to me It was going down It was probably consumer products Blavlar Bilge Exactly As I said, you can't hope On a new market that will be snatched So we can't hope that the Chinese will stimulate their economy So they will buy Hermia-väsky And buy tysk bilar again but what they do is they send all their kinesis that they don't sell in the USA dump them in Europe we sit and look at our bilindustries and go on the knack it was also a typical offer-mentality we saw Trump out their kinesis and then we saw shipping lanes with kinesis and we did nothing and bilindustries in Europe are a big economic sector And we just look and look and look and look And look and look Man gets just confused But what's interesting is that it was that it was It was just like Råvaror, satellite Satellite, it's just like Now it's just like satellite Because you're a long hotel But I would say Infrastructure company Man can look at the chip company What's the name of the hollands The machine that does The machine that does ASMR Exactly De är lite farliga för att man är rädd att Europa ska använda dem som något hot tillbaka.

34:39De är mer än att bricka i spelet. Ja, det är väl en ytterlig brick att spela. Förutom det stackars bolaget. Ja, absolut. Men det är det här jag menar. Man måste use your strength.