Avsnitt 566 - Peak BAISSE småbolag

3 Feb 2026 · 44 min · 18 chapters

Ask about this episode

Ask anything about it. ChatGPT or Claude reads this page and answers with the times it was said.

Connect VO and ask about every podcast you hear, including the moments you saved. Add to ChatGPT · Add to Claude

In short

Podcast Episode Summary: Fill or Kill - Episode 566: Peak BAISSE Småbolag

General Information

  • Podcast Title: Fill or Kill
  • Hosts: @Phukettrader and @2ndtrader
  • Producer: Finwire Media
  • Episode Number: 566
  • Episode Title: Peak BAISSE Småbolag
  • Episode Duration: ~42 minutes
  • Release Date: Not specified

Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts discuss the current state of Scandinavian markets, focusing on various sectors including silver, commodities, small-cap companies, and the impact of AI on software firms. The episode is rich in trader insights and market analysis, reflecting on personal trading experiences and broader market trends.

Key Topics Discussed

  1. Market Reports
  2. Discussion on recent earnings reports and their implications for traders.
  3. Mention of specific companies and sectors affected by the reports.
  1. Silver and Commodities
  2. Notable fluctuations in the price of silver, with a dramatic crash and subsequent recovery.
  3. Personal trading experiences with silver, highlighting strategies and market reactions.
  4. The market behavior of commodities, particularly in volatile conditions.
  1. AI and Software Companies
  2. Examination of the recent downturn in software stocks due to rising concerns about AI advancements.
  3. Discussion on the competitive landscape for software companies and how AI could disrupt traditional business models.
  4. Specific mention of companies like Duolingo and the impact of open-source AI models.
  1. Small-cap Companies
  2. Analysis of the performance of small-cap stocks compared to larger companies.
  3. The influence of passive capital flows and index funds on small-cap valuations.
  4. Insights into trading strategies for small companies and the challenges faced in the current market environment.
  1. Trading Strategies and Personal Insights
  2. Hosts share their trading strategies and reflections on recent trades, including successes and failures.
  3. Discussion of market psychology, particularly how traders react to volatility and risk.
  4. Emphasis on the importance of portfolio management and the potential risks associated with small-cap investing.
  1. Weekly Fill or Kill
  2. The hosts conclude by sharing their best trades (Fill) and worst trades (Kill) of the week, providing a personal touch to the trading experience.
  3. The "Fill" highlights successful trades, particularly in silver and gold, while the "Kill" reflects on frustrating investments in small companies.

Key Takeaways

  • Volatility in Silver Trading: Silver prices have shown extreme volatility, presenting both challenges and opportunities for traders.
  • Impact of AI on Business Models: The rise of AI is reshaping software markets, leading to significant shifts in how companies operate and compete.
  • Challenges for Small-caps: Small-cap companies continue to struggle amidst larger market trends favoring established firms and passive investment strategies.
  • Personal Trading Reflections: The hosts emphasize the emotional and psychological aspects of trading, advocating for a balanced and strategic approach to investment.

Conclusion Episode 566 of Fill or Kill provides an engaging and insightful look into the current trading landscape in Scandinavia, particularly focusing on commodities, the impact of AI on markets, and the peculiar challenges faced by small-cap stocks. The hosts' candid discussions about their personal trading experiences enrich the episode, making it a valuable listen for both novice and experienced traders alike.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Market Reflections

0:45 to 1:50

Discussion about the intense recent trading activity in commodities, particularly silver.

AI and Company Trends

1:50 to 3:10

Exploration of how AI is impacting various companies and market sectors.

Investing in Europe

3:10 to 4:35

Insights into the European markets and the impact of currency dynamics.

“I think that it's super interesting to look at in.”

Earnings Reports Discussion

4:50 to 6:10

Conversations about recent earnings reports and their implications for various companies.

“Hela ditt investerade kapital Vi kan börja med rapportperioden lite kort då Har du handlat några rapporter Eller tittar du fortfarande på I USA, how are you doing that?”

AI in Healthcare Investing

6:10 to 7:20

Discussion on the role of AI in healthcare investments and specific company performances.

“But it should Vitrolife be able to fix it.”

The Silver Market Crash

7:20 to 9:40

Analysis of the recent dramatic changes in the silver market and trading strategies.

“How should you get to new investors if you don't want to invest in a new portfolio?”

Market Reactions and Trading Insights

9:40 to 14:01

Further insights into trading reactions following market shifts and personal trading experiences.

“And then I just tappated a little festet.”

Market Reactions and Historical Patterns

14:01 to 15:12

Explore how market behaviors repeat and the implications for trading strategies.

“And then there is a chance for a good stock.”

Silver and Market Dynamics

15:13 to 17:30

Discuss the recent performance of silver and its market implications.

“att det här flödet försvinner också, så jag tog någon minut innan där.”

Political Risks in Commodity Markets

17:31 to 19:56

Understand the political risks affecting commodity prices, particularly silver.

“And as given, those who come after the rest.”
Show all 18 chapters

Current Trends in Uranium Investments

19:57 to 22:28

Examine the rising interest in uranium and its potential for investment.

“Jag tycker att alla tittar på silver nu och sånt.”

Impact of AI on Software and Job Markets

24:29 to 28:00

Analyze how advancements in AI are reshaping the software industry and job landscape.

“They were just a high-tech company, they were just a high-tech company, they were just a high-tech company.”

Market Dynamics and AI's Impact

28:00 to 29:40

Discussing the current market trends and the potential influence of AI on various sectors.

Challenges for AI-Based Companies

29:40 to 31:20

Exploring the risks and competition faced by companies building on AI models.

Investment Trends with AI and Open Source

31:20 to 33:00

Analyzing investment patterns in AI, open source models, and the implications for major players.

“Men då i Antropic så ska till exempel Zoom, videosamtaltjänsten, de var en tidig investerare i Antropic och värderingarna i de här bolagen har gått upp så mycket.”

The Rise of ETFs and Market Trends

33:00 to 36:20

Examining the impact of ETFs on small businesses and the shifting investment landscape.

“Som kan bli ganska stor del av market cap.”

Navigating Market Uncertainty

36:20 to 39:40

Discussing how to approach investments amidst market volatility and speculation.

“You're just a bigger and bigger, dumb and dumb.”

Market Insights and Personal Trading Experiences

42:00 to 42:48

Discussion on trading strategies and market conditions in small companies.

“Man sits on some of these jävla small companies we've talked about.”
Hear the part that matters, and keep it.Open this episode in VO. Double tap your headphones to save a moment as you listen.
Get VO free

Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.

0:30566 of Phil or Kill podden. Varmt välkommen Lone Wolf. How mår du? Tackar tackar. Är det bra? Det har varit en intensiv råvarig period. Det har varit den galnaste silverhandeln. Historiska tider Om man är i råvarutradingen Ja, det var en intensiv Det har jag varit, kan vi säga Hela förra veckan, både lång och kort Och sen hade jag ju varit lång Jag hade haft Silviksson-ponering länge Sen i somras Så Ja, det hände mycket Väldigt mycket, man kände sig nästan Jag kände mig nästan bakfull när det stängde Fredag karl Ja, men man kände sig nästan som någon kryptotrader Man är inte van vid de här råvaruparen They're doing it around Exactly So it's a lot of stuff How do you think about the night?

1:20How do you think about the night? So we're going to talk a little bit Silver, we were just short when we played in the next episode Precis It was a legendarious timing If you want to say Many have tried to slow down Then there are two doors in a pod And suddenly What are you saying about the clock? One time on the day a trasig clock one time he must give us that we have fructansvärt right yeah then I thought we talked a little AI it's new that mjukvary companies totally cross and they will cross from AI then we had Carnov juridic company which they said they are a company they cross Hämnet got katastrof Blocket Vend got katastrof yeah I hela det temat tänkte vi prata lite om SAP har börjat gå ner Från har varit superhett också Sen tänkte jag att vi skulle prata lite Rapportperiod Lite om det här med OMX3 Hetast i Europa Medan resten av alla bolag som är noterade Är de iskallaste Så jag har kollat lite på hur det har gått för fonderna Det är väl de man ska PR-a sig mot De bäst betalda förvaltarna Hedgefondförvaltarna med mera Hur har det gått?

2:36Och hur har det gått för oss? And then it has come new AI models, spaning, index Elonde out and kör a little affair And have bought Twitter for the fourth time We'll go on

2:53We have with us Robomarket So there I thought we'd talk about a little European market Europe is a lot of things Jämfört with the USA Many are over from the USA to the Europe And then you can handle the European market Portugal, UK, Spanien, Italien, Tyskland Med ett valutakonto i euro Så det är bara att gå lång där Handla hur aktivt man vill Utan att slänga bort massa i växlingsöviter Precis, och europeiska förvaltare har ju Vaknat till och inte tycker det är roligt att ha dollar längre Så nu ska man sälja sina amerikanska saker Och köpa europeiskt Ja men precis Och vill man titta över pölen Så har ju Sandisk varit det hetaste Den kan man ju både gå lång via valutakonto or Cort, the one has gone up 300 days in a row, it's like.

3:39It's a big win on this minnesbrist. It's like you have a silverware there. I think that it's super interesting to look at in. Both, maybe not from the long side, but it will come a lot of trouble. And there is also a connection to silverware. You can handle very many ETFs on Cetra-bors. There is silver ETF, there is raw ETF, there is gold ETF. All this can be exposed via Robomarket. Precis, och är man intresserad av det och har ett system att titta i med mycket charts så har de ju även TradingView som är toppen om man vill följa alla möjliga olika saker. Instrument, råvaror, aktier etc så är det ett väldigt bra chartinstrument och är man nyfiken på att koda lite så kan man testa olika strategier och sånt och handlar man rent av via det så kan man handla direkt i charten och sätta stopp loss köp och sälj i charterna.

4:31Så det är ett jättebra system som man får Gratis via Robomarkets Ja och har man har frågor så bara kontakta Max och Simon På Stockholmskontoret Oavsett om man är en ny kund eller gammal kund Så svarar de supersnabbt Så det är bara att höra av sig dit Stort tack Robomarkets Men kom ihåg Investeringen bär risk och det är inte säkert att du får tillbaka Hela ditt investerade kapital

4:56Vi kan börja med rapportperioden lite kort då Har du handlat några rapporter Eller tittar du fortfarande på I USA, how are you doing that? I haven't handled any reports. I thought that for the week was totally focused on the raw market. It was a good focus. I handled a little Autolive. I handled a little other reports. It's not really bad. It's not super hard. I haven't done any real home runs. Autolive was bad. The market is very well. They are very well. But it's not a report where all the companies are up and not where all the companies are up. It's a little bit like a milk. And you can't really get a value.

5:41Today came Vitrolife with their report. The report is down to 20%. So it's like there are the category of not Omex 30 companies. So there are no automatic ETF-script. They did this EQT-forbatch under Covid. and then it feels like that from the past was the perfect company that they were still in the same way and that they still think it should be still in IVF-branschen but it was still in the P50 or P70 but not longer I think today when it comes to so much I was a little bit I haven't done anything but it doesn't have any AI-coppling here I don't know what AI should do with IVF AI should be able to choose the best embryo the best egg and so on.

6:27But it should Vitrolife be able to fix it. Yes, exactly. I think that when it comes down, it's a little interesting to look at. Man can say that Burö has also gone from one of the biggest investment companies, Ubico, Vitrolife, and even Micronic, which is for the big part. But it has become super-hett. I saw Kinneviks report, which we talk about here. There was still a stark I think it was a lot of a lot of weird things, I would say. From that now they should hold the money, and it's good that you don't burn up the money. They made an investment in the first one, I think they had seven and a half billion.

7:04But now we need to invest in more than that. And the end people had wanted to have, now it's for a bit, but it was a bit flat. They had invested in Antropic or some kind of a business here for one or two years. How should you get to new investors if you don't want to invest in a new portfolio? And now you say that you don't want to invest in a new one and you don't want to take a new purchase and you don't want to buy a new one Yeah, no No, it's not a good Then I read the MV's report All of them It could not be any plan in Kimmerich It's not a new idea It's like they make up as the go along It's very easy to say it's a lot to say so but they didn't communicate it out.

7:52They did nothing. No. What was your plan? No, I don't know. They did a big deal here just recently. But they have been able to do it with health and health. Then I looked at the BMW. They have been able to do 50 % rebate. They have been able to sell a lot of companies to NAV. The course has gone up still. So it's hard to not be a homex-30 company that we will talk more about here. Något annat du har sett under rapportperioden Eller något du tittar framåt Nej det är väl det vi ska komma in på Med AI och det där Novo rapporterar imorgon Det ska bli rätt intressant tycker jag Har kommit upp mycket från Rejäla botten Ja Och analytikerna är verbäsade Jag tycker väl att VDn har väl inte pratat Och inte hausat allt för mycket heller De satt ribban Hyfsat lågt He's in the second or third Sparkningsrunda so it's like he's still Kavlating up the arm He's quite conservative in his communication And he's just going to focus on the focus With fetna and diabetes Yes, and He's not guided Sky's the limit So it's a chance to Open up and open Tomorrow and then We'll see, but it's going to be interesting Yes, it's going to be a super interesting report Super拍間 E are super low and they have got a good start on the oral pill.

9:21We'll see if someone can have it or what it will be. I don't have any position before, but I will handle on the report. It's a little 2026, it's a little now. It's going to be very interesting. I don't have a yet to have a guidance. He doesn't have any of that. It's going to be really interesting. We'll go over to for the week and the week's biggest thing happened silver crash silver crash silver has gone fantastic it was 30 dollars now it was up to 120 I handled guld and silver in torsdags this was the day before the story then it came down quite a lot I did one of my biggest intradays-winst in guld and then it was the sjuka and I staked it and then it was the gold and silver like, almost back.

10:14It reverses the whole of the race. And then I just tappated a little festet. But it was just like, if you thought that now would come, it was just a super place. You had just acted, you were just a short time in podinspelling, right? Yeah, exactly. And it was a little squeeze up when it was up in... 118 or... I think I saw 121, but then... Then you were going to do it. So on Monday I sold my last one. And then I was not long silver anymore. And then we talked about it in the first pod-up. It could come a day where it was going to be down 20%. And it was not so many days before it happened. So I was short.

11:03I was short when I continued to go up. And then it started to get down. And then on Friday So it was just Propping out Then it was full of How do you think when you Stäng a so position 10 % is for a huge Rørelse Had you said I had to hold myself to a bigger Rørelse I started to stäng Runt 1999 What I would Bebohr

11:35It's not It's really intelligent That betta on 30 % It's a silver It's like that it's never happened Or even if it's 45-50 years It happened in the last case I don't know if it's around Handsharvan on 80-tall If it went down so much on a day But maybe So to betta on a so-outlier event Is just Now betta it on 20 % It's also a outlier event But Volan was so high I silverpriset Som man kan ju förvänta sig en stor rörelse Och jag pratade med en annan Väldigt duktig handlare Ska det ske någonting här på grund av pris Antingen när man har handlat Tesla Så att det blir liksom en Ur-toppning Att det går upp sjukt mycket sjukt snabbt Det är som att det kraschar på nedsidan fast uppåt Det är ju ofta slutet på en rörelse Eller så ska det ske något form av event Och här fick man ju då den här första rörelsen på torsdagen Och sen så utnämnde ju Trump Wars The new Fed-chef And he was much more hawkish So it became one of the catalysts For the catalysts For the catalysts Yeah, and you got dollar-styrka That was it you got with Kevin Wars So I tried to go long People started to write It's a little bit so I was going to go in It's a 20-22 % I was like, this is unheard of Like, in the taco And then you buy it And then, klockan 19.25 in the same time, all the people are balancing and all the people are doing and then there's some...

13:07We can go through how we did this. We rang each other. But then I had already sprung me. You rang me for a while. It was like what was the problem there. So then I had already broken how much money it was. And then you said, wait, you don't need to buy one. And I said, I'm full of money here with long silver. And then it was a time where they were balancing a x2 ETF that all the people are doing in the USA. It's just how much as you can do it And when silver prices were down So much as 30 % You're 60 % down Precis And this is just like bull and bear But in Sweden you have it over the night Not mid on the day It's just on the staining But now it's that råvarumarknader Is in staining 1925 And In fingerprint was it Societet General Produkter And then we handled it for that they must rebalance it in for next day and then it's all so say that a product is 100 they must pay for 300 if it's 3 and a company goes down say 30 % then the product is 70 % but they're for many so they must sell in the stag so that they have right balance so that it will right half-stown to the next day And this was what I called you about.

14:33That it will sell on until 1925. After that, it disappears salespeople. And then there is a chance for a good stock. And it felt like you could do the same trade in the past. But many fronted this. All Algos and all the other people knew about this. So you know that a big company should act. Exactly. And it does not come in so many sales until 1925. heller, forutom kanske retail traders och sånt som inte har koll på det här. Därav, jag tweetade ju först Hold, Braveheart grejen. Hold, det var ju tanken att köp inte en, och sen let's go Astra någon minut innan 1925. För man vill ju det finns väl säkert folk som frontar att det här flödet försvinner också, så jag tog någon minut innan där.

15:17Och sen blev det ju en snabba, 8 % fick jag göra, men det gick ju ännu mer sen. Ja, och det känns som vi har nått det här läget nu. Silver är upp 11 % idag. Och så gjorde vi samma sak So long ago we were going to go. It was fantastic. So we were on exactly the same tema. And then we were able to get silver at exactly the time. Exactly. Now it's not so that you're just 19-25 to go to long. We must explain here that it must be a big... For example if you're going to long, it must be a big deal and much capital in the ETF. For it's not going to come out. So, in the last year was silver at 10 % from fredagens stängning alltså so could you expect to get out many sales many sales from 1925 and how hard and gal the market has been when you write it has not been I said it's not 10 % it's not the biggest I was in the middle of my daughter and you rang me and said do we do it again or what do we do and then I looked I said it's not 10 % we must go and today it's interesting now we're going to the pod after this we'll see Men idag är ju Silvete upp istället Då kan man ju tänka sig att det kommer ett flöde som ska köpa fram till 1925 Och det har man ju märkt Hela den här uppgångsperioden Att det är ju mycket lättare att Var en aktör på långsidan Det är ju inte lika många människor som köper en kort ETF Eller en Eller blankar Så att liksom Nu får vi se var det här tar vägen Hur hög den här studsen blir Och hur snabbt det går tillbaka Now we're at 87 % here The average is about 76 % 75 % or 74 % And I would say that The magic thing we've seen in many markets The magic touch in silver Is over, it took just For several weeks before you just saw a rekyl Now it's more A normal beteendo And it's like crypto Now you've taken off very much leverage If you've got something to go down 30 % If you've been a belated here, you're very put It's a lot of leverage that has gone pratique.

17:24Vol goes into so it will come up these land not yet. The serious man doesn't enter into the walls. That is clear why vegetable is gone. And as given, those who come after the rest. Theajo is this. Of all people. That is so scary that they were not interested in it. For all the sudden, you can be able to ride a little bit for a long time And then you can turn it on And then suddenly it becomes a little bit of a

18:18silverbolagen i fredags. Så råvarumarknaden har levt sitt eget liv här. Jag pratade bland annat om vissla silver och vi pratade om riskerna med att staten kunde inte ha någonting. Där fick man istället lite landsrisk. Det är Mexiko. Där de mexikanska kartellerna har kidnappat tio personer på deras anläggning, vilket är ju katastrof. Så den gick ner jättemycket och igår såg att det började köpas jättemycket köpoptioner. Så då började folk spekulera i att kartellerna sitter och handlar optioner innan de ska släppa gisslan. Det är tre nivåer av galenskap här. Men, så det säger väl en del om att är man inte i säkra juridiskuner i länder då, det finns alltid en politisk risk.

19:07Oftast finns det väldigt mycket mineraler i länder med högre politisk risk. Precis. Samtidigt brukar ju om priserna ska vara här uppe så Will it be... You have the state of the rave to set in very many military military that would be able to do this. It's what I mean. It's not that they would have to do it. If it's too much incitament, which it does now. Yes, exactly. Now it's a interesting place here. You can see, even Boliden, who had a report today, said that they wanted to wait a new plateau before they had new investments. And Boliden has been in 100 years. So they're used to be at 2.8. They were going to go to the Conquen.

19:44nu är det glödhet att de här priserna skulle på ett halvår kunna försvinna, eller så gör de inte det. Men det låter ju väldigt smart att de inte bara trycker på knappen och startar hundra projekt här. Då är det ett tag kvar på håsen. Nej, men lite så. Jag tycker att alla tittar på silver nu och sånt. Jag tycker att det här var superkul, men man kan titta på andra saker. Uran till exempel som är lång. Hur har den gått? Den har väl gått bra it. The H &E ETF, the ETF has gone from 7 euros when I mentioned it, to 10 euros. And then came the US administration out with that they should... Shutdown? That also, so we don't have an NFP-siff on the Friday.

20:35But they also have a strategic reserve in the Rare Earths. Just it. So that means that it's often a talk of talk that they buy rare off to some price so that they can guarantee production. I looked at the companies and were it something that they wanted? Or were it a lot of prices? In the case, all companies would go up very much. I think the market is a little bit after silver. It's not a way to try to buy the price. A lot of risk-reviews have been after the Friday. What makes it possible to get more time to grotter down to what companies can be I think it's super interesting The gold is still The gold is still Up-at-dag Since 2008 It has more Taktat up The gold is still 4 900 Had no said that for half a year Had it been how high as possible So you're a little Fartblind I look more on Some of the things that have done It's not the same speculation.

21:43And look at the companies, the uranium companies? Hittills just the physical, the ETFs that hold the uranium. And there has been a little bit of a hack that you don't need to go down the microcap-comer. Microcap-urambolag, they will have a production of 20 years. It's not interesting. For so long it's not a price. You can go up to District Metals. So it's going to be the same cameco and the big one. And it's going to be a call of the energy fuel. Some I think it's going to be a very good deal. Yeah, it's going to be a good deal. But it's more on speculation than anything else. And then it can be very fast over.

22:26If the price comes down. But I think it's my year's call that uranium should go bananas.

22:38Let's talk about crypto So it's very tyst On crypto And then you come to When you buy it Are you talking about it Are you talking about it Or are you talking about it Yeah but exactly It can be interesting For I think it's very tyst Just now Yeah and we get our exposition Through our partner Virtune And then it's always 100 % Fysisk back It's completely svensk Reglerat And you can easily Use this via ISK Then you just write Virtune I your own platform and then you can choose their different then you can choose what you want bitcoin etrum or so you have index etp or you want to have a little more more exponering and if you have not bought crypto any time then you can it be time now when price just now is low it has been high if you say so Ethereum I think I think I'm interesting because when you look at the activity on Ethereum blockchain so the speaker is on all-time high while price on Ethereum has gone down.

24:06And with Virtunes products there, there is an extra extra from the stocking and all the products are 100 % physically back-to-be, and they are very easy to sell in a ISK. Yes, exactly. So if you're interested in crypto, go to Virtune.com and read more about the product. And if you're just going to sign Virtune so they will be very much of their product. Stort tack Virtune!

24:39Thank you.

25:01They were just a high-tech company, they were just a high-tech company, they were just a high-tech company. They were just 15 % on this, and then it was like, new high-tech models press the mjukvård sector. Alla faller kraftigt efter det växte oro att etablerade bolag får svårare att försvara sina affärsmodeller. Cell trycker att sprida sig till data-analys, reklambolag, där man ifrågasätter vilka som verkligen blir vinnarna. and it's something Relics in London, Walter Kluvner, all of them are under 13-10%. EQT was under 7 % today. They've done a lot of mjukvara. This has been the most important area to invest in mjukvara.

25:40It's SaaS, it's safe for intäkter, and then over a night have you got for that it doesn't work anymore. Duolingo is one of the markets that have crashed most. There I think it's nothing in the siffror. Then I think you're going to go in and vibe-coded in your own Duolingo or ChatGBT so you can go around gratis. So I don't need to pay for Duolingo. So I'm a little split here. My most of the most in the consumer world is a brand. You don't need to have the best product on Shampoo or whatever else. It's a brand. And it's a brand that I'm going to buy. If you have a good interface with Duolingo then you can have a NES 8-bit Duolingo for that it's gratis.

26:23I don't know what's that will be. I don't know what's that will be here. I think it's a DeepSeek Moment Light That's happening here in the day And it's Kimi Kay and Moltbot It's two new open source AI models DeepSeek was also open source So I'm not super in the last part I'm trying to check Kimi Kay is very billy Very good And they have botswärmar So you can get how many Anställda as well And you can do it well So you can build Very fast and very well And you can get a lot of capacity And it costs not They drive locally So you don't need to pay for the same thing So it's also For the value of In the AI and everything But the tank is I don't know, the Dualingo All of them that have been in database or have an egen AI, will they just just be able to to get their own data to other models and get a little bit of money for data they hold?

27:32And who will be a consumer, what could they do? Do they just have a contract with a company or an antropical? I have a hard time to see it. It will be a lot of companies. Then it's easier to see that kodare and like that will be able to disappear and it will be able to disappear a lot of jobs in many sectors where AI, If you're a graphic designer or whatever else Maybe traders, you name it It's a lot easier to see That the job will be able to mince And then the marginals go up But it seems like now People just go around in a nice way And they're going to slay out They're going to slay out But you don't understand how it's going to go It's more just a big worry But it's just a market for Man sells buy-on I think that SaaS, for example, is very high It's clear that it has been very strong But it's not that you know how AI will be How many times do price sales, you can pay It's just to look at how the development has been The last four years in AI And what's happening And how barriers to entry has been Raserats, i kostnad Att bygga en app Eller bygga något annat Google kom ju med en dataspels AI nu också i veckan Visst, där ser man ju Mobilspel, alla enkla grejer Men att den skulle bygga ett nytt GTA Det har jag ju svårt att tro Ja säkert, men bara risken att den skulle Kunna göra det framgent Och de här bolagen handlas till P30 Då kanske det blir P20 istället Ja, exakt Så att It's there that it's a risk-justering And it's there that EQT For it was no one that had no explanation It's that if you're buying a lot of companies And it's omöjligt to pay You can't sell them For it's no one who wants to do an affair And then it's not a way to pay How you should pay your portfolio When you've done 10x ARR And now you don't know what you're going to pay Then I listened to another podcast Where they talked a little about this And then it was a lot That you don't want to be a completely kässt lokalt bolag utan människor, relationer, säljare och liknande har du liksom bara att du säljer mjukvarutjänst där det liksom tuggar något abonnemang som alla bara kan säga upp det är nästan skönt att ha någonting fysiskt eller någon människorelation här helt plötsligt, vilket känns stendött innan, att det liksom ska vara jobbigt att byta ut systemet och att du behöver liksom folk som hjälper med implementering och liknande för att liksom har du bara någon liten SaaS-tjänst som du bara, abonnemang som du bara kan Spotify or whatever you can say up I think if the AI models are going to be the same as they've been the last four or three to be able to to build an app it will not cost anything so the job is a little bit of the company and the companies that are going to hold them but then it is good to be a platform Som Apple eller Steam Eller någonting För då kommer det ju läggas upp 2 miljoner Nya program och appar och dataspel Ja, precis Och då är det ju fortfarande såhär Men marginalerna konkurreras ju bort Men du måste ju fortfarande Stora aktörer kommer ju fortfarande Finnas kvar för att du måste ju ha pengar Som publisher och liknande Kunde göra reklam Och liksom bara för att du har gjort En bra program bara Hur ska du organiskt kunna nå ut Med dina grejer?

31:04Nej, jag håller med Inom alla branscher Så det är såhär Visst Konkurrensen ökar och det kommer hända grejer Men just nu känns det som att Ingen riktigt vet och så är vi bara i något Totalt värderingskaos Exakt Och de här AI-modellerna De kommer ju liksom inte snåla på Och ge sig in i varenda bransch som finns Nej och jag tror att Om de ser att någon Bygger någonting på deras modell Ta Vad som helst Bygga hemsidor eller vad som helst and then they're by the way on their own it's just a rapper and then they see how much it uses and if they realize that this is a good thing and it's worth it, then they start their own so I think that your runway if you build a company on an AI from LLM-modeller or something else is very short so you need to pay a lot of money 1-2 years for then when it goes a little bit better then you'll be out-konkurrered or if it goes so well that you might be svald, that they buy you but I think that your runway is very much Yeah, really and then I've seen it go around many pitchers, it's like it's a battle between OpenAI and Antropic, who's going to not it?

32:24It's going to go a bit skakily on OpenAI Nvidia took back their investering on 100 billion dollars, now it's been about that we should invest a little then and then, and then, and then, show and Kim, these numbers had you not lovat som de hade lovat. Men då i Antropic så ska till exempel Zoom, videosamtaltjänsten, de var en tidig investerare i Antropic och värderingarna i de här bolagen har gått upp så mycket. Google är ju en jättetidig investerare i SpaceX så blir det notering av Antropic eller någon av de andra bolagen så finns det rätt många roliga case på bolag som har fått tusen gånger pengarna på sin investering.

33:02Just det. Som kan bli ganska stor del av market cap. Hela market cap, ja, exakt. Nej, men sen tycker jag att den här open source-modellen det är ju sådana kinesiska modeller. Ja, där sitter du gärna och matar in både personnummer och... Nej, det gör jag gärna inte. Men man måste ju ändå hålla koll på det. Ja, det måste man ju verkligen. För att de drivs mycket billigare om du kan driva dem lokalt. Jag har ju alltid haft den här tanken om att Apple ska komma med en AI that is located on your iPhone. Instead of giving you all your info to OpenAI, ChattGBT or Gemini, you talk to them and you talk to them.

33:42You talk to them and you pick them up to the LMM-models. Then you go to the LMM-models and you go to the LMM-models. A Trivago for LMM-models? Yes, it would be a little bit in line with Apple, privacy and all that. but they wait for you to do it so cheap as possible and Apple sits already on so much data on you as a person so that with your Apple ID so you can really get a specialised AI-assistent on you and it's very interesting and it might be a question why Apple has been so and now you have signed off with Google as their first I could say why they have been a little bit

34:52Yeah. when it's down even more than this. So it's been a total catastrophe in January. So it's easy to know that you look at in your own small-bolags portfolio and then you see OMEX on high. It's like it's up 1 % on the day. It's a total wild west in what it's called. And this is just a continuation of this ETF index. Now you can all go over to Europe. Then you buy a Swedish ETF or a Swedish index-like product. Then you don't get the small companies in inflöden. Then you don't get anything with them. The big companies just go up. It's also a crowd that goes to bigger companies. It's a mega trend that has started for 5-10 years.

35:40That passive capital has more and more of inflödet. Then we had a great small companies in 2021. Yeah, but it's in 2021 And then it's been a stendid And all say that next year will be small-bolag And some time it will be a little bit And a little bit of a little bit And a little bit of a lot of rent Private consumption goes up And the local, the svensk companies Will go better But it's It's about being a new world In the way that it's so self-reported The smaller companies will be more Then you get more inflöden It's just about to look at The best thing is for example Saab You go from hate to get into an index-cluster, ETF-cluster.

36:20You're just a bigger and bigger, dumb and dumb. And there are still no other ones that are not going to be. No. So if you're going to buy a small company now, then you'll find it when it's on the limit to get into an index or you'll get all of these inflöder with you. I'm going to buy a company on 500 million dollars. and a small company for a forvaltare is like 70 billion for this Trelleborg so it's a little spread and skur of what it is but it's very interesting times some time will be of course small companies perform but we are in a new world with all the passive flows and ETFs and like that yes, you're going to invest in small companies I think It's the same experience that Value Investors had the last 15 years.

Read the full transcript

37:15Någon must always buy your own account if you want to come out. Things can be billy for every time. But it's a good span. 2021 didn't look like it all. Ingen thought it was cool with indexfond. Alla would be an own private VC. Alla would invest in onoterate. Alla would find the next startup on the market. and then you get money on NFTs and all that. So from that, that it was full blown small-worldly, to that you could pay for what else, and all of them were VC-investors, to that now are all index-kramare. Till that you log in Omex 30 is up 1%, you have a list of 30 companies and 1 is up. And all of them just said, no, man just just should just buy index.

37:59Buffett has always said it. It's so people do now. So it's going to be what next The worst thing is going to be. Yeah, index. Index. Storbolagsindex. In a year we will get a real impact. Yeah. When we know. If we just take the month. It's just 3 February. And you think it's 11 months left on this year. It's just a bit. But I think that the market is a little unhinged. As you say it on English. Kolorationerna börjar liksom... USA and Europe are just slain Allt börjar gå sönder Det är väl ett varningstecken Oavsett hur kul det är Att handla silver när det går ner 30 % Eller går det upp 70 % på en månad Det är klart Att det är en varningssignal Och hur fort det går Eller hur fort silvert gick är 70 % Och sen helt plötsligt Mina sms i helgen Ska man köpa silver på den här dippen Eller från folk som jag inte ens visste hade en aktie It's not a depot.

39:04And like, I was going to open up the market. It was a lot of money. It was a lot of money. It was a lot of money. It was a lot of money. I was going to go up 2 ,5 % from the bottom. No one understood why it was going up. What was that happened? And then, it's a little bit of this. That Europe and Sweden have completely ended up in epicenter for that it's what it's going to be able to do 2026. Yeah, and it shows you that all are quite slumped in relation to their conviction. All the things are momentum traders It's what you're noticing Not even yourself No Man is contrary Man försöker ju vara What momentum Kanske kommer hända So you're waiting So Yeah So That's why you're When momentum is over So hope people On the next thing And it's very like 2021 Fast then It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not It's not That's a good job.

40:00You can dance to the edge. That's always a good tip. Yeah, but a little so. I think you don't need to be a girly. Vollan does not need to be a girly. You can leave a little on the board and take it home. You always have a loan. Now it goes up. Now it never comes to the price of the price. And to 99 ,9 % will always be a better option. Exactly. And then you say to yourself. I never sell this because I never will go back. That's what I've done. I never come back. Exactly. Exakt. Därav till exempel, jag har tjatat om det ibland, om man har ett innehav som går väldigt bra. Alltså ta en delvinst, justera gavvet.

40:36Det är inte lika tråkigt om många säger tvärtom, man ska öka sina vinnare. Vill man bli riktigt rik, då ska man göra det. Absolut. Vill man ha pengar kvar på kontot hela livet, då kanske inte det är bäst. Exakt, men man måste ha ett portföljtänk och inte basera på sina enskilda innehav. Ja, har du några andra positioner du vill dra innan vi klappar ihop för den här veckan? Nej men Jag tror att Apropå det här att allting bara Rullar runt Så tror jag att den här silver och guldrörelsen Allt det där, nu har andra råvaror också gått bra Men det finns råvaror som laggar Energi råvarorna, olja Vad fan gör den?

41:14Det är som att piska en död häst Så jag har lite lång olja För att jag tror att den här råvaroråsen Kan fortsätta Men jag vill inte ta i dem Där spekulationen är högst If the other ones will continue to go well It feels like you can have a better risk reward And just when we're in Pradalia There's an oil company that wants to be a value So it's very billy With good and good So we'll end with the fill and kill Fill and the fill is of mint trade I gold That became fantastic And kill is I handlade Pissbolag på tåget igår Silver from longsidan I tacos It's not to be focused The trades MUST I skip The market is farlig when you do something It's not me My fill is of course The silver The silver The last week Hopp of longning Gick kort Two snabba longning which became very good.

42:25So it's just a MVG, I think I. And then... If you could set it to your own bety. Yeah, and that's what I'm doing here. Yeah, that's what's going on. You're your own chef. And kill it, it's just... Man sits on some of these jävla small companies we've talked about. And it's just... It's just like... It's just like... It's just like... It's just like... It's just like... It's just like... It's like... Then we're near the bottom. Peak Bass Småbolag. Then you can contact us... Facebook, Twitter, Instagram... Philokillpodden... Gmail.com We want to thank our Klippare and Finvai Media And we have an ega disclaimer And I have Inget of it we have Pratat about today I don't think I I don't have any Iran EF Yeah, I don't have The Iran EF I don't have any Ensign of any AI-bolag Over and out So we'll see you next week.

From the publisher

Dagens ämnen:

0:00 Intro
4:57 Rapporter
9:43 Silver och råvaror
24:36 AI och mjukvarubolag
34:25 Småbolag
41:46 Veckans Fill or Kill

 

www.instagram.com/fillorkillpodden 

Tack RoboMarkets! http://gorobo.pro/2aue 
@RoboMarketsSE

Tack Virtune! www.virtune.com 

More from Fill or Kill

All 65 episodes
Avsnitt 566 - Peak BAISSE småbolagFill or Kill · 44 min
Listen in VO