Avsnitt 567 - Man måste våga för att vinna

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party. we go

0:45It's not a skill in the year. It's not a skill in the year. It's full fart. It's still a real nedgång in small companies. We'll talk a little about the report. We'll talk a little about Nelly Crash, Lyko Crash. We'll talk a little about Hims and Novo. We'll talk a little about the start of the software-nedgång in the past. We had a magazine-reported with their Capex. We'll talk a little bit about it. And then we can talk about Spotify. It's going to be a report today. Yes, you were long before the last report. Yes, I missed that it was the last report today. It's going to be a small caramel. Yes, exactly.

1:29Then we'll talk about some stats. We'll get NFP tomorrow. And then we'll get inflation-siffed on Friday. Then we'll talk about the SaaS-bolag that went down so much. We'll talk about some edge AI and maybe some private equity. Maybe a little bit of a råvaru. You are our expert. Yes, exactly. I feel like I'm almost a little bit full of action that has been there in January. But it's going to be a little interesting. Yes, we'll be right back.

1:59We're with Robomarkets. And this week I thought we were talking about a part of a part of a part of a fractional share. Some can be very good in the USA. There are very many of the products. Eli Lilly costs 1000 dollars. It's a little like MASH here in Europe. Annars in Sweden have we not really high-tech akties. No. And via Robomarket can you do it. So you can buy a part of a aktie. You can buy a start post and then you want to spend a month or get in a aktie. But it costs very much to just buy one. And then you can buy a part of a aktie. Which is very smooth. Precis. So you can buy more posts than a whole aktie.

2:40And as usual with Robomarket So you have 0 ,075 % I'm in charge of If you have a deal or A lot of other things Yes, exactly, on the island For it can be very cheap And as usual you have ISK On dollar or euro It can be foreign and European That's very much LVMH It's a nice brand Then you can buy a part of it And you can buy it on your own valutakonto i euro eller i dollar då om man handlar i USA. Ja men precis. Och som du nämnde om man vill snitta med en viss summa i månaden så kanske det är smidigt att köpa andelar av aktier då. Ja det kan ju vara ett tips. Småbolagen utomlands går inte lika dåligt men det är alltid bra att snitta in sig en aktie så man inte köper allt på en gång.

3:28Precis. Och som vanligt ingen växlingsavgift för att kontorna är ju i dollar och euro. Så det behöver inte växlas några pengar. Nej men precis. Och man kan handla via TradingView. Du får alltid fina grafer, enkelt att handla. Och har man frågor så du bara kontakta Max och Simon på Stockholmskontoret. Precis, stort tack Robomarkets! Men kom ihåg, investeringen bär risk och det är inte säkert att du får tillbaka hela ditt investerade kapital.

3:57Ja, om vi ska prata allmänt om rapportperioden, det känns som vi har fortsatt stora rörelser. Några är bra, många är halvbra och rörelserna är superdåliga. It feels like a theme, Troax, Sano, Vitrolife It has been bad reports, but so bad has not been But we have had over 20-25 % I was going to Sagax with their report The fact-it-blogs can't run around 7-8 % From the fact-iternes super darling So can even a such a company go down 7-8 % It's a very good theme that it's a liquiditets event Then you'll get a chance to sell Maybe to buy other fastighets companies Or buy other companies I listened to a good EFN with Origo He talked about that the trend isn't all The small-bolag trend in Denmark, Finland, USA, Europe It's just in Sweden the small-bolag trend Where the big-bolag continues to grow and small companies mow katastrof.

5:06And it has a lot of inflöden and outflöden as we have mentioned hundreds of times. And so long it doesn't go down, it's pretty difficult. I don't know if small companies in the rest of the world are so well. I don't understand it. It was fine graph on that small companies in the USA have gone better than the big companies. Russell got better here in the year, but they haven't had it. It's not the Crocodile Gap Deluxe that we have in the world. We have a very big small-compatial market here. But if we look at Lyco Nelly and draw parallel there, it looks like the category of the price of the price of the price of the price of the price.

5:49So I have it for me. They look like it extremely tough. The lipstick theory has not really played out here. Nej, speciellt inte Som i Nellys fall Fjärde kvartalet ska ju vara Stärkaste Omsättningsmässigt var det väl Starkt Men lönsamhetsmässigt Svagare än väntat Lite sämre än väntat Det var väl 10 % sämre Men det är mycket rabatter i Q4 Det är Black Friday och sådana saker Ja, exakt Dels öppnade de ju butik i Kömenhamn Nu såg jag idag att de signade butik i Göteborg Och det är väl Tror man på det so it's a really good investment and it's a cost so if you open a lot of new products it's a cost but you won't open the market one more than a time but here it feels more in Nelly's case that it's a form of momentum bubble that's going to be today we played in here at 15.35 the Aktie is on the 310 million which is a lot of it's a lot it's not so many Storägare, det är ju Stefan Palm Och Wright Ventures, jag tror inte de De känns ju väldigt långsiktiga De vräker nog inte ut på den här rapporten Ser jag framför mig Utan då är det väl liksom, det går stopplosser Det kan vara blankare Och så känns det som att uppenbarligen måste det varit väldigt mycket Momentumfonder eller liknande Som, ja Aktien har ju gått fantastiskt Den är ju upp på ett år Trots den här kraschen är den upp 123 % På ett år Det säger väl allt It says everything, but their execution has been fantastic this year also I bought the actual seven-eighth I sold it on nine and I missed the whole of the taux I've got a dip a little here today, I'll see if I hold it in the staining or what's happening tomorrow It's a really crazy I hope that Mr.

7:45Stefan Palm is going to get in here, I'll see you in the foot I'll see you in the dip, I'll see you in the direction I'll see you in the direction of the action But the report is not 38 % dålig Sänker ju liksom värdering, förväntningarna Många kan ha ryggat Andra människor inte läst på själv och liknande Men Ja det är någonting som är helt Galet över den här rörelsen Och omsättningen Ja men om det är lite momentum så är det väl att Q4 tillväxten stark Sen Q1 dåligt Mycket returer och grejer efter Jul och nyår och folk håller i plånboken Och sen kommer Q2 and then you sell more on full price and then comes the way to go.

8:24But if there is a relative in this then it will be a while before the end of the focus is. Yeah, but you should look at it. If you look at how the price has gone and then you look at the relative in this branch is it billy? No, I don't think I should say. It's not really cheap either. It's not a cap here. Obviously, when it's 10x in 3 years. Nej, men P1 är väl mellan 10 och 15. Man har bevisat här och visat att man är mycket mer ett kvalitetsbolag än vad man var på 7-8 kronor när jag jagade någon form av turnaround. Alla hatade bolaget så har man visat att man verkligen kan exekvera här. Gått mot mer egna märken, returerna var 22 % och 35-40 % när det var som värst.

9:14De har gjort många av de här grejerna, de har automatiserat sitt lager, då har effektiviteten kommit upp där. But I have owned a company, both noterated and onerated. There is no company that is so difficult as the fashion company. And when you have a company as a customer, you have to always have to renew it. So it's a job of a company, but if you have to get it out of the way, that you have managed to convert it to the own brand, that you have to get a D2C business, then it's a much easier. It's a very hard concurrence and you're really dependent on the consumer. And we had a katastrof-konjunktur for the year and the acties were 1000 % on 2-3 years.

10:00So I don't really hold on. No, but if you compare what we were for three years ago. With the rente-and-gång and all that. It's much better than what it looked like 2023-2022 in the economy. It's going to come in the year. It's not coming from the last year. It's been total missire. But the Riksbank has already been under all these three years. Absolutely. Absolutely But have people become better? We've had inflation that has been up all these rents. Yeah, it's clear that people have better now than 2022. Yeah. It's just about to look at the price. If you look at the price of the ESK, it's gone up.

10:35Yeah, absolutely. There's not enough people have enough exponents for that to go up. But we'll see what it's going on here. I think this is a powerful reaction. Then maybe it's been a powerful reaction on upside before. We talked about it before, if you look at Corona So you just got to try all these Speak up, it was not really the price It could be something like this That you had to go away I don't think it's really the case I Nelly But you had looked a little more on Lyco What's happening there? It's a little bit the same branch I haven't looked so much on it But they have There are more that you're pressin and skuld.

11:16Nelly mår ju jättebra finansiert. Ja, precis. Och sen har de det här centrallagret och det verkar finnas nackdelar med det. Framförallt innan de kommer igång. Det finns inget som går så dåligt som ett nyinstallerat, automatiserat lager. Nej. Så det verkar vara lite mer exekveringsproblem där. Ja, och där liksom när man läser runt det är svårt att få en bild. Där verkar det ju mer, där verkar ju folks spekulationer vara. Nu låter jag som att jag är negativ Nelly när jag är 38 % på rapport. Det är jag inte. I mean more, the action that it has gone, the value that it was a good value, maybe not a billy, not a lot of money.

11:56But margin of safety has gone through the last year. Even though they knew that they had levered, but you understand what I mean. And so it has come in very many, I mean, the action has gone from 40 to 40, to the month. it has come in very many retail investors and so then it is a higher risk and it that you can say there is also that people maybe not have been able to and now they don't have been able to when they look at the report but in Lycos' case they have in all the way there are people who have a theory that Mattas is a kick in Denmark they are in the end so it looks like a stag in the smink and that Lyco is pressed so they have been able to get out their lager and have been able to get out the price and if all of them have to get out the price it's not good for them then you just have to get out of the margin now it's a little bit of a spare here, it was a little bit of a and other but both of these are very hard competition and it's like a restaurant it's going to be very interesting to see how to say Kaja goes They just own their own market, so they have a higher margin.

13:10But it has gone fantastic. It's just the ones who have all the market. They have also a fantastic market. Yeah, but Lyco had very much sacked on an egen app, which was probably long-signed. It was almost like live shopping, Snapchat, where people had to buy their own videos and they got to pay. If your product sold it, you made a lot of money for it. fast du var en privatperson. Och det är väl säkert jättebra långsiktigt men kanske inte när du är lånepressad att liksom göra massa galna satsningar. Nej, det blir så här group och omvarning. Ja, nej men precis. Så ja, börsen fortsätter vara helt galen.

13:51Båda de här aktierna märker man ju i alla fall i Nellys fall här och då att du har inte de här institutionerna som kliver in. Nu omsätts ju det fruktansvärt mycket så nu verkar det inte hjälpa vem som än kliver in. Men liksom i de här uppenbarligen of the much bigger companies so it's a little bit more because you get in, if it's a index, or that people can't put it in. But here comes a little bit a lot of a lot to the other side. And it's something that we call a P-E - that you can wait three days after a such a report. Like I, a such a report-race. You can't wait a little today. For it's going to be a gris, it's going to be a small hand that's caught, it's going to stop, etc.

14:30So, sometimes it can be worth waiting until the dam has taken off. If you don't have to deal with it, like you who has a dip. Yes, I don't know what I'm going to do. It depends on how it's going to stay. Often, what I'm talking about is that when it's got a lot of rörelses and you just need to make it on a day-to-day-old, then it's often day-low. Especially if people have caught it too late on day-to-day. So nothing happens to stop them in a stung. You would have a WeShape Yes, exactly We could hop to EQT For it was a little like The rower The gick down 20 % On this software Or software Stöket with Antropic That they would have a lot of software They bought out Fortnox It was very interesting to see how Fortnox had handled on the market Spontant så kände man att det hade kunnat vibe-coda ihop här ett litet Fortnox-kopia.

15:29Så den hade nog inte handlat så bra. Den köpte man ju ganska dyrt. De har en ganska stor software-exponering allmänt i EQT. Och man är ovan. Den var ner 7 % i ena dagen, 5 % i andra dagen. Det här är ju verkligen ett kvalitetsbolag i EQT. De har gjort det fantastiskt, det får man ändå säga. Men här kom ju Investor och nya ordföranden in och köpte för 700 miljoner And then a private person who buys for One billion billion Over a few days It just shows that he just has to be able to do his position With 2-3 % So it's like I buy for 10 000 I have no idea But it's still a real signal That EQT internt Not really feels like Antropic just now But it's not even in the middle of this For you always biased Yeah, then it's I think that the sales over the whole line In private equity Equity and equity are like a Like a call Of P KKR, Blackstone, all of them have gone katastrof And then They just handle them in group It's new, you know, you're in the name All's just about sector and group And on ETF and like Precis, and then there are different skillnader All of them are in between And in different nish But the biggest All of them are Claude har den här modellen det var det här med att man kan vibecoda och ha agenter som kodar Claude är fantastisk på att bygga program och koda mjukvarubolagen blir ju då för vi har inte gått igenom det här Vi snackade lite Carnov och det här vi drog ju halva det här segmentet förra veckan och nu är det väl någon fortsättning på det här och nu studsar ju mycket men i förlängningen så är det ju What are the Wallgravarna As it's called Are they with AI?

17:29Blir it easier? Blir it harder Conkurrens? Pressar marginals on Mjukvarybolagen? How many mjukvarybolag will see their marginals Pressas? Antingen pressas For all your Kunder who has SaaS-abonnement You can't sell it to or you will come in a billigthats that will be a product that will be a product. And I think I'm with this that the company will be more effective and you will have less than you have less than people will still have an interface even though it's easy to go in in the chat GPT and get back some financial data. You're not sure you can't buy an interface. Yes, exactly. But I'm not sure to see that everyone will still have their own interface.

18:16And many companies have been in the community as kunders. Should the community be able to go to their own program? Even if it's been much more expensive, it won't be able to get it. No, but what can you take? There are some alternatives to the market now. What is the alternative? It will come with more konkurrens. I see people who are now who are able to go to their own terminal. All right, Reuters, portfolio, so many things. It costs a multum to have. Bloomberg is not going to be able to get a lot of money. S &P has gone down a lot, of which do rating and like and financial analysis. On the basis of the market is very hot.

18:52I think that it is still something here. They are not hot at it now. It's been a 15-year-old. It's clear that we don't break it on a year. It's not that it's about it. It's about multiplans, framtidsutsikter. It's about ARR-saving. Exactly. You can't really Längre can't On the way 10 years I'm out of time Look at what's happened the last 10 years I'm not sure how it looks In 10 years And it's the risk that you need to be in So that multipliers are still on And one of the biggest losses was Vitek They went up a little bit on their report But they were the most There came a little insider-go I think it's important With a little EQT insider-signaler i alla fall.

19:42Nu har EQT handlat bra från att ha varit totalt kraschat här i alla fall. Jag försökte googla och jag tyckte det var synd. EQT har ju ändå sitt ventureben. Det hade varit kul om de hade investerat i Antropic eller någon av de här. De har investerat i många bra AI-bolag och säkert vissa dåliga. Men det hade varit komiskt i alla fall om de hade haft en jätteexponering mot någon av de här vinnarna. Men det hittade jag inte. Nej, och sen finns det väl varför private equity åker på det. Det finns ju en annan del i det där private credit creditbenet. De äger live-försäkringsbolag, lånar ut till sina portfoliobolag.

20:16Och EQT är det den snurran också? Nej, det tror jag inte på samma sätt. Men det har ju blivit en stor marknad. Nu vet man inte hur stor den är, för de här lånen handlas ju inte noterat. Så jag antar att de som har köpt de här lånen, säkert tyska pensionsfonder, de är väl alltid sist på bollen inne i sånt här. Private betyder ju att det inte är en bank som lånar ut Utan det är liksom utanför banksektorn Ja exakt, du köper over the counter liksom Och det är ju för att bankerna har försvunnit I den här marknaden efter 2008 Och alla regleringar, de har inte lånat ut till många bolag Alltså på det sättet som kanske Innan de innan har gjort Att de är med och finansierar Mindre bolag som kanske inte riktigt är lönsamma än Nej De har ju liksom inte kunnat gå till banken Och där har ju någon behövt steppa in Ja And that has private equity done And so they have done it Via private credit So it is a risk Man can't be a risk Especially if they have made out of such a mjukware company And many big companies Who have become a big company And now they have to get to the market And it is well the blue owl That is notewable in the USA If you want to see how private credit Sector goes So can you look at the action What you are worried about The only thing that happened in the competition we saw in the USA in the year, which had a lot of exposure to the bil sector, was that it looked good until it was over.

21:45It looked not like it was a good deal. But it came out very quickly, and it was the market to market on these loans. It doesn't happen, it doesn't happen to market on private credit. It doesn't work.

22:03We are sponsored by Avanza, which is a lead of investment platform. This week we were talking about their private banking-erbjudging. That you can use when the portfolio is 3 million. Precis, we often talk about cases and the price of the product, but not so often. Infrastructure is back on a spare. So when the portfolio is 3 million, it changes the plan. It's not just a quotas it's about, but it's many other cost-mассas you can see. Absolutely. They have for example a bolong for private banking with very low rents. They have, depending on how much you spend from 3 million, you get today 2 ,25 % boränta, which is very low, and down to 1 ,75 % renta, depending on how much you spend.

22:49So it's a trap there. So you don't need to ring and tjata and sänky its bolong, but it's fast levels depending on its total sparings at Avanza. Precis, och om vi kollar på handeln lite så som PB-kund får man ju då värdepapperskritik med lite andra villkor som faktiskt är väldigt intressanta. De har ju även ett deal flow, alltså access på corporate finance sidan. Som PB-kund får man ju då ofta förtur eller exklusiv tillgång till introduktioner och emissioner och det kan ju vara väldigt intressant. Och dessutom så öppnar de ju även dörren till onoterade investeringar via partners som Avanza har så man kan titta på det.

23:22For us who are going to grow down to see siffror and so, so also have rabat on a company like for example, such as data or other new services and analysis. And it's a cost-and-dung business that you can get rabat on. Yes, and as a result, they have also partners in juridic, both in skattejuridic and familjejuridic, for example Deloitte and Lexly. So you can get to expertise so you can help and to structure up their economy and their family situation on a very good way. Exactly, so they have both specialised in-house and even partners. So for to say, if you have a sparement on over 3 million kronor so can it be rational to do a calculation over this and see what you can get so that you don't get today.

24:08If you have anything today, it can be worth it to think about. Yes, so contact Avanza already today. Stort tack. But come back, investering in your risk and it's not that you'll get back all your investable capital.

24:26What do you say? If we go to Spotify here, I looked at it now. I bought them on 20 % on three days. It's not really them that you're going to have an AI-forlora. That you're going to have to go into your own. You need to have a right-hand. Then you can do it a step to. Now you can do everything with AI-musics. You don't need any right-hand. For new music, you mean? For new music, then Spotify can say that they have a high margin of AI music. You don't need any artists anymore. It's very many like that. It's what Spotify has done with, that they have the best product. For it's YouTube Music, Amazon, Apple, all of them are their own.

25:05But still, Spotify has won the race. And now you see that Daniel Ekholm has the latest report. Now it opened USA-burning up 15 %! It's a mess of a hundred billion dollars in cash. and this was a company that didn't get paid for a year when they were going to be able to do it so I think it's very spreted here many companies will become super-willed on AI I don't know if Spotify is one of them but many companies will become totally so it's just to select and it's not I don't think you need to know what's more than so just to understand that maybe multiple times will come down a little Gary, why are for the immune they're still things soon.

25:48Yeah that's right in the Duolingo podcast, it'm rather a bit less than you. It's just a chat-for-at-my computer every day and you enjoy one school for me. But there was more funding for 40-50 times for en inches. In fact you're not crazy and Mike already lakes it probably. Yes, for the money can be asked about it. I at least five years from here. from. Yeah, really. So it's it that's the problem. And then for the week came it other things on. Then came the Magnificent Seven-rapport. Their CapEx exploded. All handled it in principle well. Even Google came out of a fantastic report. Amazon handled it super well.

26:28Yeah, Microsoft really well. It had never gone down so much, it was. It had never gone down so much, it was. It had almost 30 % from high. And it's on the CapEx. They were so much money. Google should spend 1 600 million kronor on AI or on their total capex but the most are AI and shareback, buybacks no more and today they are going to put bonds yes, they would do a 100 year bond which is fascinating and then they have taken in the UK and Schweiz and made bonds with different values will Google exist in 100 years? I think it I think they are a big winnary Problemet är Det stora problemet är De som har problem är OpenAI För att Google De kan ju bränna de här summorna OpenAI måste ju få de här pengarna De står ju med mössan i hand De måste få in de här pengarna Och är det lättare för OpenAI Att ta in de pengarna de behöver För det behövs ju uppenbarligen Mycket om man tittar på de andras capex Är det lättare för dem att få in När Google bränner de här pengarna Or say investor, will they really win?

27:41Google is this. If someone's business goes like that, they're going to pay their marginal for rest of the company, then they don't think they're going to buy their business as it's a part of. It's just a part of the luxury market. Exactly, it's just a part of the market. What happens? They can take cost that they make it billy for the consumer. so long and then so that OpenAI will be longer and longer that data when OpenAI will actually be lonesome because Google can go and then it had not been smart to do if Google had been very long after with their model Gemini but now they are not so long after the last model Gemini went almost on so they are up and tamp to top then it's a good thing to go I think it's good It's good for the price of the CapEx It's good to draw value or draw parallels to Netscape and AltaVista and so many things that it always comes to a new boom and trend, but it's not sure that they are the winners All right OpenAI here If we're talking about a year, then it's something else For a year ago was Google completely outdressed so OpenAI is probably a super winner of a year but just now doesn't feel like super winner more than that they have many users but they have not got a snuff on their business and the skill of this is that it has with capital to do for it is cost to build all these data centers and everything so it is barriers to entry if you say it so you and I have difficulty to draw on 1.600 billion And then you have Claude That Amazon is the biggest Of the Antropic And they go on Steroids here It goes on AWS Amazon's Moln And then Amazon is going to go down 14 % Exactly But it's not that I note That the market has been in general So all the people have gone And it's not so normal And it's not like it's not like it's a year's NASDA-crash här, och det har vi inte.

30:01Invidia gick ju bra. För all den här Copics betyder ju att Invidia får en del betalt. Och det säger väl en del om de här sjuka marknaden. I fredags då så hade vi liksom haft software-crash hela veckan, och nu skulle det vända runt. Vi har haft krypto-crash, vi har haft det ena och det andra. Och då går de här Core Wave, Strategy, de här går upp 30%. Det är ju inte en frisk marknad när det liksom är rekyldags, och då går de här bolagen upp 30%. Nej, exakt. Så jag tycker att det är väldigt svårt and outröna who wins and not. Microsoft comes also down a lot that they are connected to OpenAI which doesn't look like a win on that.

30:44But for 2026 I think I have Edge AI and it means that you have chips on phone or laptop or data Many of the AI-utrackings that you can ask for a model to a local model. That it can be done locally instead of getting to the data center. It's very cost. So Edge AI is at a part of the model that can be done locally. There are companies like Intel. NPU is called the chip. Qualcomm, I look at it. It's a slumrende tech company that has been very cheap. They've done all the time in the past 10 years. But they have the Snapdragon chip. So it can be a little interesting if you want to find a form of...

31:37The other trend is that you're afraid that your AI will take over your dator and your personal information. Many have bought a Mac Mini for to carry the AI-botten. so that he can just hold on where you don't have all your own code and your private information. Yes, exactly. So it's something you can look at that maybe is a trend that just this is to drive AI locally and what it takes to hold on the infrastructure for it. And how has Qualcomm gone? It's been a lot of reports. So it's no other one that can see it. Intel, but they are probably They are probably a little national security classed in the USA on their founder and so on.

32:25If Kina takes Taiwan. And then we have got a lot of money in there. Just so. But it's hard to buy it here. And then we had Hims and Nova. Nova is still a small cap company. We had Hims who has sold compounders, so many copies. And they went out with that they would sell I was actually a 49 dollars version of Vigovie But it wasn't really Vigovie It was something they had Kirt together in the next hit themselves So Lilly and Novo Kraschade på this And then they saw how it's possible That they should do a product But it's not on the right cellulite It's their own cellulite And what's happening with a patent And what's happening with all things So FDA went out and slacked HIMSS The one was up 15 % and after that has gone down to 30-40%.

33:17For they have won very much on selling GLP-1 compounders. So Novo crash first, now it's been back. You might have gotten a little trust in that FDA still bryr you on patent. It had been a catastrophe if it had been to see that who else can do what else can do if you just skied in the patent market. But now it's still FDA here and it was still positive for Big Pharma. So Novo studsade 8 % two days in a row. So the stock is higher now than what the stock was before the new year. So the market is very slain here, back and back. I saw that Astra came in a new obesity study. And they bought something Chinese jet-to-art there.