In short
Fill or Kill Podcast Episode 568 - Summary Notes
Episode Overview Title: Avsnitt 568 - Fyndlägen i misären Duration: 0:00 - 39:28 Hosts: @Phukettrader, @2ndtrader Producer: Finwire Media
Topics Discussed
- Intro (0:00)
- Truecaller Analysis (4:11)
- Karnov and AI/SaaS Discussion (9:45)
- Focus on Small and Mid Cap Companies (17:26)
- Discussion on Buying Dips (25:06)
- Market Index Overview (31:41)
- EG7 and Small Companies Analysis (35:45)
- Weekly Fill or Kill Segment (39:28)
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Key Discussions
Truecaller
- Winst Warning: Truecaller issued its third earnings warning, leading to a significant drop (27%).
- Challenges: Encountered issues with advertising revenue and competition, particularly with Google’s algorithm changes affecting ad placements.
- Market Sentiment: The volatility and long-term business model difficulties faced by Truecaller have led to skepticism among investors.
Karnov and AI/SaaS
- Market Positioning: Discussion on how Karnov is navigating the AI landscape and its SaaS offerings.
- Growth Strategy: Noted that Karnov has shown resilience with increased sales volume despite broader market pressures.
Small and Mid Cap Companies
- Market Trends: There's a mixed sentiment regarding investing in small and mid-cap stocks, with some opportunities discussed amidst current volatility.
- Investment Strategy: Caution advised on buying dips, emphasizing not to rush into purchases without clear indicators.
Buying Dips
- Strategy Discussion: The hosts discussed tactical approaches to buying dips in the market and balancing short-term trades with long-term positions.
- Market Behavior: Noted that recent earnings releases have not consistently impacted stock prices as expected.
Market Index Discussion
- Market Performance: Reactions to index performance, particularly regarding small-cap stocks and institutional flows.
- Investing Trends: Emphasis on the importance of understanding market dynamics and adjusting portfolios accordingly.
EG7 and Small Companies
- Governance Issues: Talked about EG7’s struggles with governance but noted recent positive movements in its stock price, showing a rebound after earlier challenges.
- Potential for Growth: Mentioned the possibility for recovery and better governance leading to potential investment opportunities in the small-cap segment.
Weekly Fill or Kill
- Investment Decisions: The hosts shared personal investment perspectives, reflecting on their decisions to buy or sell stocks in light of current market conditions.
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Key Takeaways
- Volatility in Tech Stocks: There is a prevalent concern about the sustainability of certain tech and SaaS companies amid competitive pressures, particularly from AI advancements.
- Diligent Analysis Required: Investors are urged to conduct thorough analysis and not be swayed by short-term market movements, especially in small and mid-cap stocks.
- Long-Term Perspective: Emphasis on maintaining a long-term view when investing in potentially undervalued stocks, particularly in uncertain market environments.
- Market Sentiment: The discussion highlighted the need to be wary of emotional trading and the impact of broader economic trends on individual stock performance.
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Closing Thoughts The episode wrapped up with a reminder of the unpredictable nature of the markets, particularly in the context of small-cap stocks and the ongoing evolution of industries due to AI advancements. The hosts encouraged listeners to maintain a strategic approach to trading and investing.
Contact Information: Listeners can reach out through social media or email for further discussions and inquiries.
Disclaimer: Investments carry risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Recent Crashes
0:45 to 4:10
Discussion on recent market trends and specific companies' performance.
“You're a big fan now if you're a small business investor.”
Truecaller Financial Troubles
5:50 to 9:20
In-depth discussion on Truecaller's financial issues and market position.
“släpper their numbers for that they are so much.”
The State of the Tech Market
9:20 to 13:00
Exploring competition and challenges faced by tech companies in the market.
“And often they said they had to buy 10 % of the volume or Harvard.”
AI in Business and Future Risks
13:00 to 14:00
Exploration of AI's role in business and potential risks involved.
“sådana här processorer som man hörde när man var liten, att du kan ju inte släppa något superavancerat.”
AI in Healthcare Challenges
14:00 to 15:00
Exploring the implications of AI in the healthcare sector.
“So he asked, we have a lot of AI, super good for our system.”
Disruptors in the Tech Industry
15:00 to 16:30
Discussing the shifting landscape of disruptors and their impact.
“Framförallt in sjukvårdens problem is that they don't have a homogen data-bas.”
Investment Trends in SaaS
16:30 to 18:00
Analyzing current trends and challenges in SaaS investments.
“Det var den här Moltbot-killen som byggde ett bolag själv här.”
Market Reactions and Investor Behavior
18:00 to 19:40
Understanding how market reactions influence investor decisions.
“The small-plug's fonds are gone out of the skog.”
AI's Role in Various Industries
19:40 to 21:30
Examining the impact of AI across different sectors.
“It's a sector where you have Wallgravar That AI isn't on All right, the physical product They're going to be the winner That's why they're using AI In their business It's cool to look at it for that it will go down.”
Building Infrastructure for Future Needs
21:30 to 23:10
Discussing the importance of infrastructure in supporting AI.
“I've seen it on the SaaS-based But to look at the Traditionella I mean Trelleborg and all Have been very much on Internet-bubblan When they have effektivized, digitalized What will they do with AI?”
Show all 17 chapters
Investment Strategies in Tech Companies
23:10 to 25:00
Insights into portfolio allocation and investment strategies.
“You don't need to buy them that are super-exponered against that AI-serverhallars will be in all-and-all-and-all.”
Navigating Market Volatility
25:00 to 26:40
Strategies to approach investments during market fluctuations.
“And if you don't have to come with your company to come with your company, if I have gotten it right, and it's not coming with your company inside.”
Market Trends and AI Impact
28:00 to 28:50
Explore how current market trends and AI advancements affect investments.
“P-fondes have problems So we have a stable Bort σας so that you just kortared it on the upside and it went up 6 % and now it went down 2-3 % in a smyg-gly and then you're not really with.”
Real Estate Insights and Future Expectations
28:50 to 30:20
Discuss updates on real estate investments and future expectations in various sectors.
“Have you any for example in what you could could change the whole sentiment?”
Historical Market Comparisons
30:20 to 32:50
Analyze historical market events to predict current trends and movements.
“I must say again, the Filo-Agarna that got 1000 % and then we got Lummi some times.”
Investment Opportunities in Small Companies
32:50 to 35:50
Investigate the potential of small companies and their impact on the market.
“And then we'll see what's that knacker them.”
Market Volatility and Investor Strategies
35:50 to 37:30
Examine market volatility and share strategies for navigating investment challenges.
“They thought that it was negative and the price was up 18 % today.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. Away baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.
0:42The GeneVIII You're a big fan now if you're a small business investor. Yeah, it's a fact. I don't think it's super easy as a trader. I'm a positive thinker. It's a real mistake. If you don't like the biggest companies. You can look at other places. But it's not that it's going to hold the tongue right in the mouth. Maybe wait a little until the rest of the day. Yeah, it's a lot to talk about. We've had reports. We've had a lot of news. Dagens crash, weekn's crash. Today we had Truecaller, Cinch, G5. It came from Racer. Karnov thought we could talk a little bit about. Fortsatt small companies, some SaaS-related companies.
1:26Some companies that don't really get so excited. What should I go on? How should I go on? How should I go on? How should I go on? Then we had a little about Lundin Mining. You had a new, what was it, American case? Where have you been in the world and been in? I just looked at, we were going to go on on AI Space. I think it's a spade in AI. Yeah, a spade. It's a little different, but how I see it. Yes, and then some of the other things that have stopped to go up. And then some more and more. We're going to go.
2:03We're with us Robomarket. So there I thought we'd talk about some positive handel in the USA. There are still many opportunities. It's a big company. We had a lot of logistics, a lot of things. We had a lot of business, a lot of business, which is a big company. All of them were down. We had even DSV in Denmark. And we had the Mag7-compan. It's a different kind of AI-compan. You name it. In Sweden it's very deppable. Precis. Large cap is okay, but mid - and small cap is pretty good. Yeah, and there's traders hanging. And via Robomarket can you really let's handle americans to sell. If you want to sell for long side, then you can do it in a ISK, dollar, slippa dyra taxis and if you want to go short, then you can do it even with a bondage.
2:57Exactly. And then you can also use trading view via Robomarkets. And then you can look at charge, you can kodate a little bit if you can do it and test a different Strategier Men framförallt så finns det ju Att man kan göra listor och sånt Så man kan göra sektor på sektorer Och man kan handla i charten Och det rör ju på sig en hel del just nu Överallt Så det kan vara bra att ha ett system så man får en annan överblick Om man inte har något redan idag Så är det ju väldigt bra Och i TradingView kan man ju få index Du kan få råvaror, du kan få krypto Du kan få väldigt många olika tillgångsslag Precis, i realtid Vilket är ju väldigt smidigt Och framförallt så kanske man Man kan testa lite olika momentum-strategier.
3:38Kanske bra att köpa lite aktier som går upp istället för svartom, som jag brukar hålla på. Exakt. Och det är ju väldigt många som använder när man handlar amerikanska aktier och man behöver oftast inte vara rädd över likviditeten heller. För vi är stora börser med väldigt stora volymer. Så är det. Och har man några frågor eller vill sätta upp kontor så är det bara att höra av sig till Max och Simon på Stockholmskontoret. Stort tack Robomarket. Men kom ihåg, investeringen bär risk and it's not that you'll get back your investerate capital.
4:11We'll start with the crash of today. We had Truecaller. They've come with a winst warning. They've come with the same report again. Then it was on an on-on-one winst warning when I was walking on skid. Now it's the third time that the siffre comes. Up a once, down two times. And now it was down to 27%. So, you know volatility and the R &D's-SW verks true call the right aktie. The market is now down very much. It's all time low. They have problems with their annonserings business. If I have heard it right, they got a problem with Google as a 3D parts solution. When they were going to send out their annonser, they changed their algorithm, which they were so close to.
4:59and now today capitalized and said that we will not find any solution on a short and medium but we will focus on the other business and then more direct annonser it does not all feel like you have been skeptic in the Indian-rabatten that it is difficult to take on a little bit like Evolutions we have problems with Asien with this thing, but they can't really explain that someone has copied their plays how it works. The market is transparent and if you don't see the solution on the company's problems that are long-term problems then you get very straffed in the market. I don't have any true callers, it looks like a good to handle when they släpper their numbers for that they are so much.
5:55It's hard, they've had a big The stockpile, the stockpile, the stockpile, has a lot of a lot of money. It's a lot of money. If they have to know that this doesn't move so fast. So that can't have to know. I'm not sure that it's not a new risk. It's more that people have difficulty understanding the business model. They have still increased the amount of users. How many users can help. but you can't capitalize on the use of the best You had heard about some future vision here, that operators should try to do the same, and that's why it's been that you have been doing all the time Yeah, exactly.
6:36It's just many operators globally that should be able to live AI on other ways, but also on such a way to track and identify different numbers and so on Softbank, SKC Korea It's not that you want to have the spam-samtal It's not that you want to be a spam-samtal It's not that you want to be a spam But you want to do a lot of other things But it seems like it can be a add-on But it's a later question If it happens or not The dream had been that True Caller Had come so long with its användar-bas That they had no super-app or something that had to be able to do or do a lot of other things in TrueColorApp.
7:21It's very unique to have over 100 million users. Absolutely. There are other apps that have over 100 million users. What do you think about it? SK for example in South Korea has a A1 or A or something like that that they think will be a super app. It's a lot. It's like Elon Musk is going on with X. It was just talking about how to get money to sell crypto. There are many who dream about it. I thought if Robinhood could be a super app. You always do it in the way. Klana has some spots. I'm not really sure.
8:03It's the same as I'm the big ones before. With WeChat and Grab and the other. That you can do so many tjänster as possible. But then the question is how to grow in India. There they grow, but in India they have many people so they have very many customers Then we had Cinge it was also here you just saw on all the numbers that came in, that they were organic a little bit, but in the value of the value and then the value of the value of 15 % so it became negative growth I saw that their half-pr in Norway, Link, has gone very bad SMS and AI maybe not really good crazy now, it could look like a Massa nya funktioner och så med SMS och WhatsApp och liknande så bolaget själva ser väl inte som hotade här.
8:50Men det känns som ett klassiskt softwarebolag som är väldigt enkelt att slå ner på i den här vevan. Och sen hade vi G5. Där är väl också det här AI-hotet. Har inte visat tillväxt på länge. Ska komma på nya spel. Och just mobilspel känns som den lättaste delen att konkurrera ut i AI-världen. It will probably spot out Mobilspel And then It's a problem that Costs are going to do that They're going to do that You're on a huge database With kunder If you want to do cross-market-saving Or do you and I Are the world's best mobilspel It's not that many people should play it So it You need to have a market-saving You need to know what you're doing with but so some of them will be of course but it's not sure that they do then we have Karnov they have many slated on which is a juridic here I felt I was still a little in the tunnel here you inside they had a lot of they have sold a lot so they have got a better kassa they have netto but can use a lot of the this the same for the sale of the liquid.
10:08So they launched a new purchase. And often they said they had to buy 10 % of the volume or Harvard. And here they launched a purchase of 2.0. So they went from a purchase of 500 000 per day to 20 million per day. It was a little bit of a company. And that's kind of one of the solutions here. If you want to show a little self-confidence Then if your company will be up to two years of AI, it's a bit of a half. It's a bit of a half. So you have to be quite sure about it. All the company say that they are an AI-winner, but you have to be quite sure about what it is. Then they launched it on the new return.
10:48First, the return was in the report. Then it came on the report, and then it came back to the inside-go. It's one of the few companies you've seen here, which has been done with a little strength. But what say you About all the companies that say that we are AI-winning? I say so I think that you don't think you should buy In an insider that you have bought No, it's a good sign For when it's so big, so It will come insider to buy Annars are it something that's wrong So I think I think that you should hold In your money quite hard And And as I said, I mean that that the reason I'm not going to do that I don't know how good the new AI models are that have been released now but what I hear from people I'm hearing who are amazing and they say that they're fantastic many of them are going to be like vibe coding and so and in my ear it sounds like internet is a fly and so many things.
11:54When you call it a little nedsetting, it can be a lot of things. Until the day it doesn't have it anymore. It's no one who is being told of that it doesn't have to be prepared for the day it comes. I think that you have to have in the back of the company. If you look at the SaaS-gold, then you have to go to SaaS-gold. For the time. For the time. You have to have a RR Some should hold on in absurdum Ingen kyrn And to pay off And they just fix the kyrn And then they just like this And then they just like this And then they just like it Yeah, now we don't know what's happening Till next quarter When a new model comes So And in a quarter can the SaaS-based Be glimt?
12:40Man can't really know what we have It can be a deep seek moment Or it's not But it's not But we know that Uppenbarligen So there's a lot of models There out there som inte har någon aning om hur bra de är där den enda anledningen att de inte släpps är väl att det inte finns computer power tillräckligt att driva dem. Men det byggs ju ut, det vet vi ju. Och framförallt, det är väl som i alla sådana här processorer som man hörde när man var liten, att du kan ju inte släppa något superavancerat. Det är något smart att släppa långsamt om du ska ta betalt för olika tjänster. Det också, men sen tror jag att du kan inte driva vissa...
13:10Det jag tänker är att det finns nog modeller där ute som är så pass bra och superbra. but they can't stop, because they can't stop. So it's that. And sometimes it comes such things when it's a leap. And then it's hard to set high multipl on a SaaS-based company. If you can't see one or two years before. Look at what's happened the last three years since Chatt GVT has stopped. And it looks like it goes exponentially. Or the development goes exponentially. And the flaskhalss That I think That's the thing that it's been That's the computer power And physical energy It doesn't look like that At the development of the time I think it's interesting What a brand is Research has a very Very fine report They're in the healthcare industry So, in the community And especially in the healthcare industry It's like there's no one to take in a vibe-coded product.
14:20So he asked, we have a lot of AI, super good for our system. But he said, Johan Löf said that if we do wrong on a thing in our system with the cancer patients, then it's good night. And AI doesn't have the same answer. It can be a little bit of a problem here. I don't think that the sjukhus have a super-cancer cancer-planering system that they will be able to do it in the night. If you have something that works, people often use it. So it's very important to see which branch, which are the kunds. It won't sit in-house people on the community and vibe-coded what they see now. Not yet. Not yet. Framförallt in sjukvårdens problem is that they don't have a homogen data-bas.
15:13We have not a national system That's not a But it's well it's the sector It's the Tandem Health One of the most AI-based But when you get a Homogen data hole All the things Look at that Then you can get lost an AI So it's well there Racers That you can get That you can get Data and so I was still trying to talk with many kodars It seems like they didn't have worked on so much on the IT-consults For it was you had already before Just the last few months has not happened so much with the Claude-grej So it seems more like that Fantasterna is doing very exciting stuff now And then you don't know how fast this will implement Or in which parts are more than that it will implement But it's hard to think about how it works The disruptors blir disruptade.
16:13SaaS-kungarna var disruptors. Nu kanske de blir disruptade. Man behöver inte titta så mycket på vad som implementeras i de stora IT-bolagen eller mjukvarubolagen idag. Kolla vad byggs vid sidan om i garaget av några killar med 100 agenter. Det var den här Moltbot-killen som byggde ett bolag själv här. Man har svårt att hänga med i alla svängar. but he was just up to open AI here on Sunday night and had been doing this in 3-4 weeks or something yeah exactly, Antropic did a blunder here and did he do? no, they started to cancel people who used Claude to their premiums service and then I opened it to open Claude and then Motepot or something but it says how fast it can go and he has got 100 million dollars up to 1 billion dollars here on something he has done in a few weeks so it it's fast, they're pretty stressed the AI-fired company, who's going to have the best competencies and so, so if you're going to sit and fill up some smart stuff there then you're on a gold sits and now he's an an an an AI-fired super duktig and if we continue with SaaS, small cap and mid cap so it's enormous negative it's a lot of inflöden But small-plug's fonds are still bad.
17:39I saw what we had done for a short-up. It was for a few weeks ago. It was peak small-plug's bass. It was a little bit late. The smarts are always for a bit late. So we are all in the way. We forgot the question. Yes, exactly. It's just that people look only on how a fund has gone. The fund has gone well. The fund has gone well. The small-plug's fonds are gone out of the skog. Then you take out your money. Then you have to sell your own-in-of-the-home. and then the fonder goes down more and then the grand the next day because then he says that the fonder has gone down and I wonder, you know, retail I wonder if this really is retail it can be in stock institution of capital and so that from small company that the land of the world has been huge while the Swedish and the large fund and the index and the index and the aktive fund it is trend and with what we talked about here we don't know if this is a deep seek moment or not but the security of the most does that but then there is a other aspect that you should be a little scrip for it's all PE and VC company that are investing in SaaS if the price of the price goes like this on the börsen it will be difficult to do IPOs or PR-affaires without the börsen it will be very difficult It's very difficult It's very difficult And P-firmary That can be It's really difficult It can be difficult to understand When the flow is so much So you can look at a mid-cap That's very good And then you can look at Sandvik Where it's negative, negative negative And there's just a gap Up and then under the mid-cap That's very good So if you find the right company here In the end of six months So it would be fantastic If they don't want to Slough out of AI or anything I think it's what you think It's a sector where you have Wallgravar That AI isn't on All right, the physical product They're going to be the winner That's why they're using AI In their business It's cool to look at it for that it will go down.
20:00But if we look at where capital will fly so it's in other sectors. And it's what we have talked about in the podcast now in how many episodes as well. All right, real estate, value-comers. We talk about oil-comers, we talk about oil-comers. Europees fastighets-comers have gone really well. We're going to buy a company in... All around. Around town. a tysk fastighetsbolag which they thought was very undervalued they had the record 100 % up and there we are not really the same in the svenska fastighetsbolag so it could be a niche there you can be afraid that AI will stop all the contors I think more if you want to see some years later so you might have to find AI-vindsor with with the labor of labor if it will be padelhall beach, arcadehall what should all do I mean that all of them will be Varslade here It should be a lot of winners On that all of them will be Arbetslösa All of them will be On the krog The question is With the money Upplevels Billiga hobbies Here It's like a win It's the app Hygglo All of them All of them They're going to And they're And they're And they're And they're It's easier to To sell So many businesses Than to What is next Tech-trend So Man Don't think That it's It's Now it's a recent bias Just because of the years It's the end of the year I've seen it on the SaaS-based But to look at the Traditionella I mean Trelleborg and all Have been very much on Internet-bubblan When they have effektivized, digitalized What will they do with AI?
21:47Not just Trelleborg, but I'm talking about the sort of company Yeah It's a kind of Olje-bolag, snus-bolag Tobak och de här Men oliebolagen tycker jag är billiga De är väl ganska ohotade Så det gäller att hitta mycket fler branscher För det är så lätt att säga Oliebolag och tobak Men de är ju superhatade av andra anledningar Det har väl vänt lite nu Men det känns som att hitta branscher Där det liksom är lite Lite mer hands on just nu Ja men då finns det ju sådana bolag Om man vill ha ändå lite AI-inriktning Så är det ju Vi pratade ju här under MagSavien-rapporten om det är CapEx, Googles CapEx de ska ju bränna 600 miljarder dollar i år på CapEx och bygga, det är de här hyperskriserna bygga datacenter och sånt och då finns det några bolag i USA förra året pratade vi lite om Bloom Energy de gör ju då generatorer som kan drivas med olika drivmedel, gas biogas biobränsle diesel etc för att generera power.
22:54Caterpillar har gått jättebra i år. De bygger en massa datacenter eller deras maskiner och liknande. Precis. Du har ett canadensiskt bolag som heter Celestica. Gått superbra senaste halvåret. Men när man tittar på de här siffrorna växer. Det de gör är att de bygger server racks. Och typ i princip allt möjligt. När Google nu gör sig med de här egna chipen, då kan inte de köpa servrar och sånt from Dell to example but they have their own special design and Celestica is the most in the world on doing a special design home-bygden to the big companies and they work at all of these companies so when one of hyperscaleers is the Nvidia chip around the chip all the infrastructure around them is Celestica so they have been a bit of a copy but I wonder if they will not continue to grow sjuk enough it feels like you can go in in the middle of the the company but they have gone how much as much but it is really boots on the ground you mentioned the building here before they they are involved in all these big data centers in the same the building so you can probably let between spades We have a company that made a brand of data to something around data.
24:23You don't need to buy them that are super-exponered against that AI-serverhallars will be in all-and-all-and-all. They have often gone up very much. Exactly. It's a company that is with and build AI-infrastructure. It's a CapEx play on that CapEx will continue and not to suck down but it can also be a diversification from Nvidia if it comes other chips that will still be for example Celestica to still need because the chips should also have its own design I thought we could hop a little to how you should portfolio allocate this how you can buy Dippen I tried to buy a Smott I Nelly, den har gått ner sju dagar i rad Här efter jag köpte på rapportdagen Eller inklusive rapportdagen Och där får man väl liksom Tänka, ska jag hålla till nästa rapport Eller ska jag ha tills det studsar Nästa gång och komma ut Med lite förlust, eller liksom Det är svårt, det är lite som coronan här Kommer jag hitta bättre läge än kortsiktigt Det börjar som en trade och blir ett kärn innehav Ja men lite så, nu går det ju ner väldigt mycket Så det blir ju inget kärn innehav, det blir ju någon liten skvätt Nej det blir mindre och mindre It's been a wind and wind every day that you're going to irritate.
25:45And if you don't have to come with your company to come with your company, if I have gotten it right, and it's not coming with your company inside. It doesn't have to hold a hand if you don't really have any explanation to all volume that has gone. If I have gotten it right, the two biggest owners, Palm and Right Ventures, are insiders. And if any of them would have been able to have flagged. And it has not been done. It's a little blanking, but I have to say that the blanks are more trendföljande, att det här bolaget kraschar mycket, då kommer alltid blankar, gamar. Det är väl någon kodstrategi de har, om jag fattar rätt.
26:21Men ja, det är svårt här hur man ska köpa dippen för det känns som att man får väl liksom snitta in. Man ska inte köpa allt på en dag här, känns det som, i de här SaaS-bolagen man kanske gillar eller liknande. Utan man får liksom mer rida ut eller att du får någon liksom rapport eller någonting. Men ja, typ Razors kom in med bra siffror. it was up on the morning and then it trended it's very many reports that have opened A-K, some have opened up and then trended down, so the number of numbers doesn't really play any role here, so then you can have a half-year horizon when you buy a dip in this and then you can think, do I buy this for that I've gone down much or do I buy this for that I think about this company and now when the value of the value of the value it doesn't play any role, it doesn't play any role if it's 20, 15 or 7 or 7 or what you want to count Yeah, then it's well that The value of that is not a role I think that you should have I beacquing that The last 15 years have we had no rent So that small It was well soon again But the small company Multiplers that we're vana at It's not a standard No, and still Small company have High value if they're more All right, if they're more But risk is also I know that the last 15 years We've never had to talk about risks But There should be a risk-premer I saw that Scandia Would launch a fund here Staten or FI or Riksbank Or anyone will never come And to help us with small companies So we're in a new regime We're going to need a little bit Like that someone says That this is billy But you say that P-fondes have problems So we have a stable Bort σας
28:32so that you just kortared it on the upside and it went up 6 % and now it went down 2-3 % in a smyg-gly and then you're not really with. So is often the deal. You get a snabb up-going, all are going in and then you're going to be a ballon but you're going to be a little bit. Gravitationen comes in a gap. Have you any for example in what you could could change the whole sentiment? I have thought about it today. to example i SaaS and mjukvarugrejen om det här med AI om det som the doomsdayers säger att AI kommer konkurrera ut marginalerna etc vad kan Fed göra till exempel centralbankerna om de sänker räntan det hjälper väl inte mot den trenden nej man får förbjuda AI kanske det finns ju liksom ingen quick fix annat än att om det kommer att det här var deep seek moment att det var inte de här modellerna är inte så bra som det påstås men But, oavsett, we see the development of the model that it goes very fast.
29:36It's really hard. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see. You sit on the hands. You've never bought it? I've actually never bought anything. I've never found anything. Have you sold your own? I've tried to build it. I've got oil companies, fängelses, that has been a real estate. Lume-Ager, we should talk a little bit about it. We can talk a little bit about it. But they came with a update on this. We should go into a field. We should go into a field. And that was super good. Vissa oroar sig for CapEx. I think there are some solutions on it. I the branch just now I don't think I need to worry about CapEx.
30:18No, they would come in 2030. So it's fantastic. I must say again, the Filo-Agarna that got 1000 % and then we got Lummi some times. It feels like they trying to copy Johan Swedrup here. They're trying to build a really good elephant with a really good before it was something that they were looking at and then they're going to sell the other times they get a really good job in their company. And then it's hard to know what the price of the 2030 och sen ska gruvan rulla på i 70 år. Man har ingen aning vad priserna är men när priserna stod här där de var idag då var det ju ett fantastiskt nuvärde och sen hade de ju liksom en siffra som var relativt priserna kanske för ett år sedan och då var det ju fortfarande bra net present value.
31:11Ja precis. Sen vet vi att höga råvarupriser leder till låga råvarupriser. Så det kommer väl gå upp och ner men än så länge tror jag att vi är... We played in here 14.42 and Lumia was down a little on this and it feels like it can go down 10 % or up 10 % when Canada opens. It's them who are going to do it. Exactly. I think they don't look at the capx. No, we'll see what people say. And then, if you look at a index or a big company that's still good. So if you feel like it goes down 10 % then we have no small company. kvar. Så det är ju en farlig hedge. Det är ju lätt att tänka, jag ligger i en massa småbolag här så jag kortar lite index.
31:57Men det här krokodilgapet har ju bara blivit större, jag vet inte. Jag har ju dragit paralleller till 70-talet för Harrypodden, så jag kan bara dra såhär, alltså slutet på 60-talet kallades för go-go year så alla bolag som typ döpte om sig till att heta någonting med Tronics på slutet gick och det var småbolagshås. Det kom till och med svenska investmentbolag till svenska börsen som skulle investerar i småbolag. Sen höjdes räntorna, inflationen började gå lite, småbolag blev totalkrossat. Då roterade det här, flödena gick in och bildade Nifty Fifty-bubblan. Då var det IBM, Kodak, Coca-Cola. Och de här fick typ 50 PE.
32:39Ja, alla de här stora megabolagen. Det är väl dit vi är på väg nu? Det roteras ju in så, så det blir ju att storbolagen where the flow goes. Index. And then we'll see what's that knacker them. It's going to be an Olin Bargo from Saudi Arabia but we'll see if it's going to be something like that this time. But it's a really interesting comparison because we had populism in the world and we had big differences. We had even then a president who was out after Fed-chefen. so it's not completely different I think you should look at the last populist and then it's not completely different I get a little IT-eran-vibber here you were not a super-actie-handler but it seems like everything is together but then there were some companies that didn't invest in IT-compancy so they first became super-hawn and then they were like, oh, they were really and it seems like the same here Vissa kategorier rullar på som att Ingenting har hänt Som vi tradear Men är man långsiktig Man ska inte underskatta Hur mycket det gör att bara hoppa över En sån Hoppade man över och var med på techbolagen Så på din långsiktig avkastning Att hoppa över it-crashen Blir ju fantastiskt På din långsiktig avkastning Jag såg ju någon graf På First North Den startade på 100 for 2006 or something.
34:16Then you haven't been with tech the last 10 years. You have much to take away. First North, there has me more that I draw much to mid and small cap and like. And there you saw at just First North, there are you companies that are on the way up and then they hopped on the way. So if it's a good thing to be done, then you leave First North. So it's a very weird index to look at. For the good ones are gone and the bad ones are gone. Whereas a big index, S &P 500, is the best best company in the world. It won't come higher. Yes, exactly. It's a mistake to put the graph on each other. Yes, it can't do it.
34:57It's a losers lounge to win the ball. But then it's small companies, it's where it's a little asymmetry. You have not like many people who read it. People don't look at the numbers. It's not like the number of numbers. So it's clear that you can find alpha there. Jumfört with going through Sandvik. And it's very many who look at a graph and say they've gone to hell. But it's no one who looks at the numbers. It's a few companies here where everything has not gone to hell. Fast that's the actual price. Exactly. We should not be able to get out of the numbers. It's still there. It's a less effective market.
35:37So if you want to go over and over and over and over, you can do much more than that. Yeah. Then you can't go all over and over and over and over and over again. Then another company I just want to mention, which I talked about earlier, is EG7. It's a company that has had some problems with governance. They sent out a lot of comments. They thought that it was negative and the price was up 18 % today. It's been a very exciting. Is it a GV-effective? No. No, it's been a long time ago on that Leif GV Persson has bought. And just that you can go back.
36:34But it has borta på morgonen här. När rapporten kom, den öppnade på minus och nu är den 18 % upp. Men det är ändå kul att någon försöker göra någonting med händerna här bland småbolagen. Istället för att bara sitta och gnälla om hur dåligt det är så kan det komma in någon gammal grundare eller kapitalstarka personer. Ja, där tror jag det finns mycket potential. Ja. Med governance och lite aktivism. Ja, lite aktivism. Många som har hållit på i en annan marknad och det ställs andra krav and that it does more hands-on. Now it's not on you. No, exactly. I saw that the biggest win in the year is, I'm not sure about the whole of the market, Medivir, which made a right-up to Carl Bennett.
37:20So from nowhere else can all of your companies do a right-up to Bennett and then go to 150%. So Brixton can just be able to get a right-up to a company that he owns. And it's that I'm going to take my mind from that that's why they're talking about these new things. It's not that it's not so much the first or the second day. For then, the small sparrow comes in, they buy a lot of the big investors, or the big investors, they sell out. Then it's a vacuum. For then there are no big investors with people who are sitting in the net. And then it goes 100 % to. For that, yeah, the sales are gone. Now all have a new gift, now we are all.
37:59Alla tror on the new thing, or people just sit around. veva runt, men det är ju framförallt nu när det är en riktigt dålig marknad så tar det nog en dag eller två eller tre om det skulle komma. Så jag tror att man kommer ha tid på sig när det kommer positiva nyheter i de mindre bordet. För du har utflöden, du har likviditetsfolk och allt möjligt. Ja, för många dippköpare måste det här vara som ett 2008-event. Det var länge sedan vi såg det här. 2022 såg vi det här. När det liksom inte fanns någon stopp. Det bara fortsätter. Anledningen då var ju Höga räntor. Nu finns ju inte den quick fixen. Att man sänker.
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38:36Nu borde det inte vara så dåligt snarare, för nu är räntorna ganska låga. Ja, exakt. Så det vänder nog inte. Det blir ingen V-shape. Nej. Om man inte lägger bud på hela Föres North. Ja, något sånt. Men det kommer aldrig hända. Vill du avsluta med något, eller är vi klara? Jag vill avsluta med att det är inte bara småbolag. Det är inte över hela linjen. Det finns ju små industribolag. It's small oil company, it's small service company Motorovarusektorn It's a lot of fun to let Maybe not just the ones who have been Darling The last year It's never been any time That you dream of being Fred Lundberg You always have 100 million to buy all your own You get a lot of risk You have a low risk And it's just a tough one So it's just a goal And then we have the fill and kill I will say that Killen, it has been the few times it has been Phil and Kill.
39:36I have not bought so many of these dippes and I took a win for a week with EQT-optioners and if you have a win, take it and spring and killen will still be that I gave me in in Nelly and then position you can go to the afternoon or so you can wait until next report. It's hard to analyze how you should be treated when you're in these the här areven. And my feel is that I don't have kept the dippes and even if I've tried to rotate a little bit from hype-grej and to buy trough of things that are billig. Killen is that rotation doesn't have come in there yet. I still wait for that it will come a up-to-value there instead.
40:23Is the trough? All right, flight to safety Inom situationstecken Vi har ju ett sjukt jobb När det bästa man kan göra är att man inte har köpt grejer Att man inte har jobbat Det har varit det bästa Trots att man inte har suttit på de här grejerna Som har kraschat
40:41Minna har inte gått upp De har harvat runt Så vi får se då Om det kommer en rotation Hoppas det Yes, så kan man kontakta oss Facebook, Twitter, Instagram Philokillpodden at gmail.com Vi vill tacka Filmer i Media och vår härliga klippare och vi har en egen disclaimer och jag äger Nelly av det vi har pratat om idag har sålt mina Carnov för tidigt och jag äger Lumi av det vi har pratat om idag Jag har inte vågat mig på att köpa de här Celestica eller Bloom Energy men jag tycker att det är intressant jag tittar på dem de får gärna komma ner lite grann then I'll talk to them. Snyggt! Over and out. So we'll see you next week when it's sportlov.
41:27Then it's always going to be a Börskraft. I'll never forget. No, it's not that you want to know. Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.
41:52Thank you.
From the publisher
Dagens ämnen:
0:00 Intro
4:11 Truecaller
9:45 Karnov och AI/SaaS
17:26 Small och Mid Cap
25:06 Ska man köpa dippen?
31:41 Index
35:45 EG7 och småbolag
39:28 Veckans Fill or Kill
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