Avsnitt 570 - Veckans största loser

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.

0:30Auf nuestro esc 열심히

0:45in Zinga and then he comes in and then it's just a total mørker. Now you can experience this together with you. You go around and laugh at the top of the top as usual. You've talked about it in the pod that you want to buy oil company. Hey and I. And now it's like a total crash here and it's geopolitical you want to do on the pod to any form of a crisis analysis pod. How do you feel? It's just tråkigt that it's needed. But yeah, so it's not. Yeah, it has in all the way Rated it We had Israel and USA's attack here in the weekend Some have affected the market very much So it will be We will talk about Chipping and Sjöfart and Hormuz Sunded I will say Hormuz Sunded It sounds like a lot of words Hormuz Sunded It's different natural resources That's what's happening here We will tell how we handled it when they thought it would come the big crash-day but the one came today instead it was a bit of a team of people maybe it was probably a dip-shop mentality a little Venice it was already over and nothing happens it's not that people nothing plays any role it's not that to flow and OMX even the one can start to go down we're going to talk about some sort some sort of money, some gold and silver what the company we have bought or not, or look at it.

2:12You name it, it's a lot to talk about. Really.

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3:12Det finns så mycket olika saker man kanske vill titta på. Det är många olika saker som påverkas och det som händer i världen. Så då är det bra att ha ett system där man kan nå och titta på alla olika saker. Till exempel flera olika råvaror och få upp charts och titta historik. etc. Now has oil been in focus. It's almost what you look at all the time. So it's very good to have a real-time update on oil and see how it works. Precis. Naturgasen has gone how much as much on every three days. Precis. So, spana in Robomarket. Skaffa a contract if you don't have it. It's very important to have stable leverantörer so that you can handle when it's the most and it's the most important thing.

3:54And that can you use Robomarkets. And if you have any questions, just to hear from you to... Max and Simon on Stockholmskontoret. Stort tack Robomarkets! But come back, investering in your risk is not sure that you will get back your investment.

4:14We'll start with the two last days. A little bit of a-up-reping. How do you act in a crash? I'm a bad crash trader. I use long index. It doesn't work well because you have to be longer long-sucht. It's always up when it goes down. But it's not the first time, the first two days or like that. Here you can see today that we went down 2 % from opening. So it was completely wrong here in opening. It was quite strong. It was a little, what should I say, when USA and Israel have done an attack. OMX goes down 2%. Israels börs går upp 5 % USAs börs går upp 0 ,3 % Vi är inte inblandade alls och vi får Smaka Men det hör väl lite ihop med att OMX Har ju varit en av de starkaste Börserna i hela världen här Så det har ju varit de stora bolagen Det har varit Boliden, det har varit Lundin Mining Det har varit Sandvik och de här De har ju väldigt mycket att ge tillbaka Och det har ju varit en enorm köpare Eller inflöde i OMX 30 Och de här bryr sig inte så mycket Om vad priserna är Now they just leave the periphery market That's the Stockholmsbörse Precis, it's a flight or safety trade Stockholmsbörse?

5:33No, it's what we see now Bort from Stockholmsbörse So how do you think of these two days? I've had some more points Some are plus, some are minus But some are like a swing I've slain with the water Which always happens When you look a month forward I feel like I want to buy a cash and buy it that's going to be most Or it's going to be more agile I've been in the corona there I've been raking in with a lot of oil companies And thought that this will happen soon, but it didn't do it So we still have to be so near, I'm trying to be more snabbfot And do more affairs than sitting in the same old post and then you sit in a lot of small companies it's not the most that are the most here now I've been in the same, I've been focusing on the cash I've done it quite a long time now so this is not a big valve not of an excuse from what happened in the helvary with Iran but that I think that the world starts to be worried, worried, worried so it's a lot of people then we have a lot of long positions now we have a little short index so that the end of today I actually I thought it might be some form of studs but yeah agile snabba affair not you can't your horizons must be much kortare you need volatility to adjust your trading and it's a little that I've been a little passive the last week because I think that it's that it's that's happening over all and volatility in the market has not really stounced over the end so I've I've had to handle a little more in the way.

7:20But it's not coming to any in the way. For example, small companies. But I've never been interested in it. I've been worried about the market in the way. But now we've got to come in with it. Range is a little bigger. So it's probably going to be a great cool trading. Yeah, and max was up maybe 12 % here as most. And now it's up 5-6%. So you can see that it's really the trappiest up. It's a bit more than what it goes.

8:14Yeah, exactly. They've done a phase 3, but it takes time But then we'll see if it really needs Or how it will be They'll have more meetings So now you need to work again, a little trades and other things So I focused on it I got a lot on it at the end of the week Then on Monday After the day And then you had Iran on it And then I've had Oil option I've had it on the last week Had I never had it in the last week It's the end of the week Why did I never had a lot of sally option from the last week in this week. Yes, exactly. I have some oil companies. I have a good expo. I have a little Chamaran.

8:54They got to get rid of their fields. It's classic when they're at a company. But it's a high risk. But they're in a high price. But in their near future to Iran they've been to a chance to pause production. Igår was a very sad day. Man kommer in på morgonen, man känner att det kommer bli mycket action. Jag låg stort plus på det jag köpte runt kolen efter en kvart. Och sen var det bara någon härdsmälte i att man köpte lite oljebolag, man köpte lite av de här typiska vinnarna. Och det är väl lite så här börsen funkar. Det är som att köpa något biotechbolag som kommer med någon studie som alla har väntat på i tre år.

9:35Oljebolag, shippingbolag, allt har ju handlat väldigt positivt inför den här nyheten. and then on a strange way so it's the speciality that it's totally sell the news so all these oil companies that I bought they crashed under the day they were up totally if you had to buy them from the day but if you bought it you are the last idiot I bought it a front line which is a oil tanker company which has gone very well but are super winners and then I bought it for shipping and the one was up 400%. So, you know, when you came back to the day that you were a total exit liquidity-gubbe that just killed all smart people.

10:19And then you came in 5-12 packers on the dance floor. Yeah, but exactly. You have to be a exit liquidity and buy it when it's already happened. So, you know, you're looking at what you can find and you're looking at something that doesn't have gone. No, and if you look at oligolagen so they don't all on that this is a long-s long-sit oil price here but now it's 15-20 dollars risk-premer with Iran so if it's a fred or if it's a war then it's a total of to 60 dollars yes, especially if it's a regime fall and Iran becomes a frit Iran then it will have a lägre oljepris, garanterat. Och det är väl det som är endgame här.

11:12Att fritt Iran. Ja, och det är ju ingen riktigt som vet hur det kommer gå, men om oljepriset går upp 10-20 % som de har gjort nu, då ökar ju vinsterna med 10-100 % för vissa, beroende på vad de har för upptagningskostnad och liknande. Men det ser man ju inte alls i oljebolagens kurser. Och sen tror jag en annan grej var som jag missade igår, som vi har pratat om how long as possible, it's not so many stores, it's hedge fund and a little invest in oil company, but you have no index, you have no vanliga stores so you don't have the marginal price that it is in many ways, that it now is in the stock market so it's not the big but it's the other köping, it's the other it's all other things that do that it's long long-term upgångar i oljebolag Precis, och det är varför just av den anledningen kan du köpa AKBP till 10 % utdelning Ja, och det sprutar ju bara in pengar i de här bolagen Det känns som att nu handlar marknaden som att det är en som Ryssland och Ukraina i början Saab gick inte upp så mycket, man trodde att det här skulle vara ett kortvarigt krig i Ryssland och Ukraina och sen visade det att det blev superlångvarigt och Saab och försvarsaktier gick fantastiskt, och det är ju samma sak And here with oil-actions, it would show that it will be a stop in Hormuzund jättelänge.

12:38And then it will be completely different prices. But now, Ryssland and Ukraine, the first day was not going down. It continued to be very strong. It didn't crash. I think it was very staking in the first day. The first day was going to be stuck. But it was just that it wasn't over. It was it we saw it earlier. First, I thought it was a bit over. I don't know. He talked about 4-5 weeks. Yes, exactly. And there can we... We can do it. You can do it in the analysis. Pesky. Or what I don't know, he's taking it in the iPod. Yes, but they attack you in the helgen. The communists took the first day. It was good news.

13:27And then... Iran has answered with them. They can send missiles and USA and Israel can go on all the time and try to get out so many sites as they can. Iran has been quite desperate and has been able to get out of all around them. Gulfstaterna, Saudi, Jordanien Cypern fick also again. Qatar. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain. Allihopa. Rent ut sagt. Än so länge have all of them around around said that this is not okay and that they maybe They must engage themselves and then we see if they do it. But I think that the drown on Saudis raffinaderi it was especially done from Iran. For if the industry and the infrastructure is fair game it's a thing that I think Saudi can actually hop in and blanda sig.

14:20And it should be Iran's important part of their own production. that if the one would be slated, they would not have so many intäkter. But then it's not much. And I think that just now, it's not much intäkter at all. But they have very much missiles and drone in Iran. They have even been producing and helped Russia with drone. So it's this one you need to do. And it's it you need to do it. And then after that, you need to do so many of all these. the small commandocentrales and so on that there are many groups of Basi front and Revolutions guard and military can't do so much in the way if you have taken out all the Phoenix and so on they can't run out without Israel and USA will be able to do it.

15:12And it's that when you have got infrastructure for those three, it's just three groups Basi front, Revolutions guard and military when their infrastructure is forced it's first then people can go out on the gator and try to make it. So, before that, as Trump said, they were staying home and they were holding it. And that's what they do now. So when Iran has answered with very many missiles, we'll see how long they have capacity left. In the beginning, we had to have been sending a cluster of bombs against Israel, which are made of many. They have not produced themselves, but they have been made of Russia or China.

15:50So, here we have to say that. The question of what the rationality is in this is that Iran is a part of the Axel-Makten in Ryssland, Kina and Iran. Trump has said that it will be a great deal they will do. And it is that they will do. I have read in a number of 4 ,000 locations that they will do. And it is what will happen. And it doesn't play a big role. They just need to stop all these locations. location it's not a role in many ballistic missiles that can't be able to get up it's a risk for the iransk regime that they can get there so it's just that you wait for it so it's very much what's going to happen on the mark with revolution and like that but there are we not yet it's what I mean vissa jump to gun the iransk folk can't go out and take so it looks like it looks like it when it's flying with a sailor.

16:51It must first take a time with. And then it will be in Iran instead. And it's what I hope will go smooth. They will have air support people so that military will show or something. Israel or USA will be there. And how can say about OMEX? Why are we the strongest in this? Is it the end of the forks? We've gone very well in this So That it was a new one to find Is not really a bit of a weird So it probably doesn't have to be Iran's sake No, it's just Now we're in on Hormuzhund It's a big question Iran says it's stank USA says it's semi-opet Igual said they first It's open but not for americans and britses And then it's a sign that they've been able to go to all the boat Yeah, and then it's been small tanks or small tanks that have come through and have been able to get full speed under the night Kul to be the captain Yeah, exactly And then it's been a business company, Lloyds all in England, the business companies on these these, the car goes up or so I think it's hard to get a new It's been a business that it can be a big smell for the company.

18:20Yes, we'll see. But what you want to remember is that I think most people just think about oil and gas that comes from Saudi and Gulf states. And Qatar stopping their LNG gas. Yes, exactly. But then there's a lot of product in production of LNG and oil. etc. And it's swavel and ammoniac. Swavel uses to all. Gruvindustrin, when you buy gruver, for example, you can separate the copper from the berg. And then you can use swavel oxide. And then you can use swavel. But then you can use swavel to how many other things as you can. But especially konstgödsel. It's a part of When you do it, you need to be a swavel and another one.

19:15You need to be a ammoniac. And both of these regions are very high-presenters. For it is a product to when they are going to be a oil. In the past, we know what happens when it happens when it happens. It goes the price of the price. Antingen you need to take a torch or you need the price. So inflation. Why do we for example see that the price of the price of the price? I vanliga fall brukar det vara flight to safety Och köpa dollar och köpa räntor Här har det blivit lite tvärtom I och med fraktpriser upp, oljepriser upp Du säger matpriser Det är inte så många i media som har pratat om matpriser Nej men alla sitter ju bara och säger Att det är gas och olja Men de här brilprodukterna är ju väldigt stora Jag tror att 50 % av världens svavel Går genom hormonsundet Sen behöver inte alla Vissa i Sydamerika till exempel Jag har ju sagt innan att det är våras för Sydamerika De är ju självförsörjande på svavel It's in a gruvindustrial and so many things.

20:12So it's good. But for example, Africa needs it.

20:18So it's a lot of things that you don't think about that goes there. And it can be an inflation. It's a inflation. We know just that for the time it became an olienbargo in this region. It was on the 70s that we had to talk about. Innan we had to talk about it how much as well. Now we have populism. We have demonstrations. Vi har Politiska mord Och nu har vi Ett oljestop I den regionen också Så det är väldigt likt Strukturellt högre inflation Högre räntor Det känns som nästan inför här Så var väl folk nästan inne på att vi skulle Börja få lite räntesänkningar Det är väl det som blir någon Väldigt tipping point Och sen titta på europeiska gas terminerna 100 % 100 % på tre dagar Nu har vi tur att våren har kommit Just nu är det ju billig el i Sverige för att det är så varmt Ja exakt, och våren har ju verkligen kommit till hela Europa 19 grader i Paris i helgen Men för industrin de behöver ju mycket el Så vad tittar du på faktiskt i det här då?

21:31Korta matproducenter Vad har du för avancerad för att druppel take på det här? I don't know if it's going to be a bit that it's going to be stoned for a long time. What will be the alternative then? If it doesn't happen, what will happen? Then will USA go up on max capacity against Iran. Now the UAE, the Arab Emirates, said they would try to press up production. OPEC would press up production. Exactly But It's not that it's going to do It's going to be Vissa people think that USA went into max capacity In the attack I'm not saying anything yet You're not saying anything yet You're not saying max capacity I'm talking about oil No, you're talking about oil And this is The days of the day Where are all sites Where are the A-fynics-rampers And then they've been Skied under them What you've seen But you mappar now what all the areas must be.

22:38Is it your answer on which action you buy? Is it a company you should buy when it is going to be able to? No, it is not. But what I mean is that if the sun is closed, it will be a lot of time. And you will go much harder to get it. For that it will be open. So it will go faster and speed up the process of the more critical it will be. Vissa menar på att USA kommer ge sig Det kommer inte hända Det kan man prata om i början Men när man är i krig Då gör man det för att vinna Så jag ser ingen off-ramp Annat än att regimen faller Och vilka branscher Jag tittar på Nu är det intressant när börsen går ner Tittar lite på insiderköp Jag tittade på den här EG7 som ett exempel Stökigt bolag innan Insiders have just been In the market Now they haven't done it The last two days But the last two weeks I think it's been for 20 million Or something Man would be looking at Wallenberg He has to buy more EQT It was Scandics VD that I chose to buy it today Have you in the world In the world In Sweden Scandic I mean Consumer confidence And Consumers Maybe Be a little razzed But Vissa branscher Are completely Opensivated Of this And some companies can be very much affected with frakter and it can be e-handel and what else else So it can be found to find their things here But it's a supply chain question It's what's on the way And then we'll see how long Man får try to estimate how long can the supply chain question be So what's it for possible possible Mark Ruby said The biggest problem was that Iran didn't get too much missiles and drone so that the day they want to take off a keyhole can't be able to do them because they have too much capacity to save themselves it can be that also when they have taken out so much they can so long so they can go away from it it can be a kind of thing but I think that you want to see what people do to give people a window of opportunity and that they haven't yet yet it has been four days so that they haven't yet so that you hope you really can You look at the POM Grenade so you have got some Iran-exponering here.

24:59I looked at it for a few weeks ago and it was a business in the Gråhandel. It's a investment company against Iran. Exactly, it was a 10 years ago and it was really bad. And then it was a aktuell I actually met a company in time for a long time but then it came new sanctions and the of the of the and the and then they came to Euroclear so it became stök but it goes to buy the and they have invested in Iran's Amazon Copia and Uber and so there is a potential that this will be a good that it will be a source of history with freedom for Iran and and a lot of tyrannes and a free Iran, then you want to go to the Iran.

25:59And then a little other. I don't know. And it's premature even so long. A little other branch. Drönarbranschen has been a good thing. And the American forsons company that has lagged Europe, Lockheed Martin and all other other drönarbranschen, have gone fantastic here. It was a little bit of a on-fucked in the US Lagren And Saab was up Jettemycket ago, 7 % And stängde on minus So it feels like it's rotating around That it's American defense That it's all that you can go in It feels like the forsaken Sälj a lot to Gulf states They sell a lot to Israel So there has it been a little bit of a reserve I'm lucky that I didn't go to Saab there.

26:47It feels like there it's a bit over a little in the Saab galenskap. The one goes not up every day. No. I think that this will be able to generate that Europe still sees even more that they must be able to if they don't need it. So it's going to be in the end. Yeah, so that was the one. The other trend that has been is gold and silver. Where gold went very strong. It's a flight to safety or like Silver is not it And silver has this 48 hours later packed up quite a lot Silver is under 82 dollar 8 % today It crashed quite a lot I go Guldet is under 51.44 and is under 3 % today It was up I go But here it feels like I know I know Dollarn has been very strong då brukar ädelmetaller tappa så gillar man några guld och silverbolag så kan det dyka upp intressanta lägen här för det är fortfarande så att ju mer oro det är, då kommer vi att ha en stark guld i alla fall silver är svårare, det känns lite samma där med spekulationen att allt som har haft väldigt hög spekulation guldet kanske nådde dit i slut och silver, de ger ju tillbaka, när det blir risk off så är det ju sådana här spekulationstillgångar cryptocurrency.

28:13To and by crypto gick ju bra och guld går dåligt. Är det liksom topiranierna som flyttar ut sitt fysiska guld och köper krypto istället? Det kanske är många guldstaterna och grejer som köpte krypto. För att man vill... Ja, ifall man måste dra och sådana grejer. Det är många som... Du sa att det var svårt att få med dig de här 200 attackerna du har hemma. Då får man ha digitala attacker istället. Nej, men det är enklare att ta med sig bitcoin än guld om man ska flytta på sig. Men... I think it's time to start to start a lot of strukturella trends. Some more trends that come from this. We're in there.

28:52Fog of war kallas it. Now we don't know if it's actually stängt or open. Really. You know that many tankers have decided to not take risk. And not to go through it. But if you like me and buy an oil company i går. till exempel, då blir man ju oftast inte så belönad om du kör den här Fog of War och sitter nu i en månad och inte gör någonting. Man måste ju i alla fall skriva upp en lista på grejer man tycker är intressant och kanske börja agera. Ja, exakt. Nu var jag lång oljebolag innan. Men absolut. Så man får ju handla sentimentet som är i de här. Men man måste vara väldigt nära och väldigt rapp för det kan komma sedan en ny breaking news som är rakt tvärtom.

29:39Och det är det jag menar är att man måste hålla tungan rätt I munnen var väldigt Örat på rälsen För det kommer mycket olika information Desinformation Så det är svårhandlat Men till exempel När naturgasen har gått upp 100 % på tre dagar Då är jag mer inclined och kortare Än att gå lång Till exempel Är det motsatsen till en momentum trader Som är det hetaste som finns Ja men Den har ju gått 100 % på tre dagar Hur trender den uppåt Yeah, it's true. I also understand that the market will be a little more rational. For example, the gas is top of mind for people to handle after Ukraine. I mean, people came around here on the street and gave a bull on 10 and a gas contract like on lunch so when something happens now I think it's just that that all people say it so that all people say it again because the wall is there and yeah so there was Equinor the gamla stat or the state-owned but notated one of the biggest companies They were up 11-12 % ago because they are a big gas-operator and oil-producer.

31:03I think it's a little fascinating that the biggest companies, it's like them and investors. On a way of winning, what happens, they always get to be... Yes, on a way of winning. On a way of winning.

31:16But... What about index? Are you doing a little bit now? Are you long or short? Just now I'm flat, it's index. So now I'm long with my akties. I'm going to... 40 % cash which you want to do. And then I asked the question what would you buy 40 % cash? And you just talked about a rocket-ramp. I don't know if we're too far from all-time high-level. You can't buy a lot of money. You don't buy it on all-time high-level. I know. But then it's that companies have gone and they thought they were billy. They still look still are going to be a billig. It's not like they've done a monster -

32:09It's a sob moment here after the invasion of Rysslands or will the oil prices go down to 20 dollars in two weeks? It's the two alternatives. Yeah, it's not. But you can't gamble. It's not risk-free I reacted on the reaction And it's the one I follow And it was that Oilers opened up Zapan, Aker All opened up to 10 % And then I followed them And then I wonder if it has been A so-called Iran trade That has laid on And then Buy the rumor, sell the news Exactly And then when it has happened And now the institution The flöden of djure And then they come and think What the fuck is 10 % of the deal And the actual market And then we know when this happens Yeah, it can be quite interesting But energy over the way I think that Iran Borde be quite poppies I have been trying to do my Iran I was going to Macron And that in Sweden Would be more here also They would be a good job of a weapon.

33:21I don't know if it's a big deal of Iran. I don't know how much it needs. But especially Iran, or India. India did a deal with first Cassotom. They were going to buy 50 % of their production. And then they also did a deal, all of them maybe missed it, but a deal with Cameco. That they were going to buy them too. So it started to be a little huggsex on production. And production is actually down. For both Cameco and Caso Tom have guided down production. For they have had some gruvstrul and all that much. And so many things. So oil prices go up. So, the power of Kärnkraft is more in fashion. And it's interesting that Lumio and Boliden has come down so much.

34:11So maybe another derivative of high oil prices. and so, that at the end of the time, at the end of the time, we must go now. And I Lumie-Boliden, I feel like this, the Saab moment, that Magin is maybe over at the end of the copper and the sector. Yeah. Or?

34:35I think that they go up every day, so Lumie has gone up every day. Now Lumie has gone up every day. Then you break the momentum Magin. I think that there will be a little pause. Exactly, they got the dollar emot you now. And the cop has come down a little. And the cop has come down. Then you have the swave. If this is going to go out on time. Swave needs to be used for the cop. And there are them good for. For America has their own. And as a result with small companies. So I would say that it's a little bit of a bit. It was almost like it was a little bit of a game. Folk börjar lappa lite av den här AP-fonden Som har crossat alla småbolag och liknande Och då får man ett världskrig Över helgen här, precis när det vänder runt Och då vet man att de sista som kommer klara sig bra här Det är ju småbolagen Utflödena lär öka igen Och liksom, ja Det är inte de som kommer studsa först heller Men det betyder ju bara att det kommer dyka upp Ännu mer intressanta lägen I de här bolagen man verkligen Kan räkna på, eller gillar Eller har liksom en bra take på Precis But above all, it's just like that it's just like, follow it now for it's a matter of matter.

35:46All that you think can change until after the end. So, hold your tongue right in your mouth. Be a little snarl. Just like... Just like a trading thing that we can tell about. It's a good tip. No, we've said it before to the pod, but it was a while ago. So I'm going to go back again. But when you're used to handle And then you're used to handle With the market that has been on a certain way And when it happens like this and volatility comes Then you think that OMX is under 40 points It's a lot But it's not a lot when the wall has gone up And it's it Range has become bigger So You need to act there Maybe You need to forget When I started with index Then it was under 1200 In a long crash and now we're on 3200 and still the same with 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 but it's three times higher market value that's what you're doing and trade it was a nice way to say that you've done 300 I don't have done 300 but the price has gone 300 but your portfolio has been so it's still just the same size it's not it's more of a depot when you don't have to pay attention but what I mean is what I thought I think it was...