Avsnitt 581 - Stjärnornas krig

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.

0:43Transcription by CastingWords

1:13For the week. I've I've loads of Relationships at home, Yea its own housing at higher power cap Then's Hansa belongs to Marie Farm to become a huge certaines Servicerop has gone good very badly We've all made a much too faraita, SpaceX will have a little bit shower They are going to energia into it They hold for that , thats because no longer they justין their magic Asken vill bli rikast på jorden eller ännu rikare så snart som möjligt. Jajamän. Och du har hittat några rymdcase där. Och sen så ska vi även prata lite andra avknoppningar och annat. Och det var ju ett något Kina-möte där också som ingen bryddes om som du ska summera.

2:01Nej, precis. Det blev en sån här antiklimax. Många skakade hand. Ja. Ja, men det har hänt mycket. Vi försöker hitta lite spännande case här och se vad vi kan samla ihop för veckan.

2:17We are sponsored by Robomarkets. It's in the USA. It's a wild thing. It's a rymdhaw. It's a semiconductor-haw. And now even some semiconductor - What have people done there? The last week? They have done Micronic, AMD, Intel, SanDisk. And even Micron. We have Micronic in Sweden Rocket Lab And ASTS It's full action there We have Nvidia-rapport In the week Will you go long You can go long with ISK And will you go short It's actually going to go down a little In the semiconductor-sfären Do you do it with a good deal With Robomarkets And then they have their podcast 4 minutes to Wall Street Wall Street, which you listen to before you listen to before you open on Wall Street, you can get a little summing up of what's happened to the end of the show, what's the name of the темes, so you'll come in a good mode in the opening.

3:24Precis, and if you have no system you can also connect TradingView to RoboMarkets. It's a great platform, you can look at everything between the world and the world. Råvaror, valutor, räntor, aktier, you name it, they got it. Ja, det är ju mycket oljan styr börsen nu. Råvaror rör sig mycket så det är ju ett perfekt verktyg att använda graferna. Och även de som gillar teknisk analys så är ju TradingView en dröm. Om man har frågor, vill man sätta upp kontor så bara höra av sig till Max och Simon på Stockholmskontoret och köra igång sitt Rob Markets konto. Stort tack! But remember, investing in your risk is not sure that you will get back your investment capital.

4:15We will start with Evolutions, a return to the program. It came to the evening. It has been a lot of confusion with more. It came to 2 billion euros. Euro. Tidigare har de kört på 200 miljoner euro. Sen var det 400 miljoner euro. De har kört lite utdelningar. Det har varit lite olika lösningar här. Jag kollade historiskt. Var det 200 miljoner euro, 400 miljoner euro, 400 och sen 500. Och vilka röder har vi skett på högre nivåer? De tre första var över 1000 kronor. Och det sista var Weebop 750. So it's not been the best capital allocation Hittills Now they should buy for 2 billion dollars And then it's in the snitt Yeah, exactly Now it's really going to be a Swedish match Of this So They even sparred They took up a credit facility On 300 million euro For to have kvar pengar I kassan So it's good And they have also Galaxy Gaming Forbred That's what's happening Pending That's what I've never got I think it's been two years Very märkly forväntan On another company And if they get into it So they get out with cash But I think this will be fantastic For the market It has been a big trigger Dart is just around 30 % And Von Bar And the other ground has around 10 % A little more So I think this was 16 % of the company That they should be able to buy Now it's up today so it's a little bit less.

5:56I mean, free float so it's a lot of money. The action is blanked. Exactly. Because they're at 37-38 % on fast hands via ground and DART so the two billion dollar will be a very big big deal of free float so they're going to Yeah, so he'll be able to increase his andel kraftfully here without having to buy more or buy a bud. Exactly, for it's a passive increase so it's not a bud-plift if he's going to come over 30%. What he should do with this. Yes, it will be guaranteed to do if you don't sell any of these and then make the sale of these these two-to-acties that they should do. They said they would start on the way.

6:33Tidigare said they had a lot of these big programs. Then they've been waiting on a form of press-to-actie if it has started. Here I still think I'm still there are some of the clear if it has started or not. So I would like to say that it was a little blank. For people who bought it in the morning. Then it was up in the morning. Now it's 718 So the price has dämpats here So I've been eating calls I've been trying to buy some calls today I've been trying to buy some tricks I've been trying to buy it in the morning I've been trying to buy it in the morning But The price has been trending very well When you've done this And then it's not all been so aggressive So we'll see I took 800 levels here om en månad, väldigt aggressivt men jag har köpt dem till ett väldigt lågt pris.

7:24Du tyckte att du fick in dem lågt? Ja, troligtvis så det är ju 10 % upp då, så kommer det ju inte alls gå igenom. Vilken månad? Om en månad, det är juni, för då har man ingen rapport heller. Sen rapporten kommer 17 juli eller någonting, samma dag som nästa löse månad så det kommer på lösen dagen i juli såg jag i alla fall. Just det. Men dit orkar jag inte vänta och då har man ju en rapportrörelse också som kan to help all the things. Or help you. Or help you. Or you can get the whole month gratis and then sell the day before the report. So it can be interesting to look at and look at. It has in all the way very well done.

8:05And the action has been in a form of information vacuum here when no one really knows what it is that is. I saw that he has increased in flat even. He is up to 35 % there. So it feels still like that he's just a real snittare, because he's gone very bad, or there's a bigger plan that he can come up and be able to to 35-40 % and then throw up the company or make any form of strukturaffair. Or not, or just tough on with the cash flow of them. He's been a very long-signed in Tobacco-Business. Then he had no structureaffair. Nej, men han redde i 20 år först Innan han sålde ut Och han sålde på helt andra multiplar Än vad han köpte på Buffet i Apple Ja, lite så Köpa lågt, sälja högre Ja, fast utan covered calls Jag blev lång i morse Ganska omgående vid öppning Det är inga backtraders här Vi köper efter nyheterna på högre kurser istället Det är sällan jag gör det Men nu kände jag såhär att du har ju en mega stor köpare stor del av free float den kommer att tuggas bort och jag fattar också att det här det kommer inte att ske idag men någonstans det finns ju en väldans kudde Ja, på nedsidan borde ju vara begränsad tycker man som Ja, och kommer den ner så kommer jag kunna träda runt det med ganska det känns bra att ha det där återköpet i ryggen Så, ja It's not a difficult analysis It's going to be a massive market It's fun to see how it handles In the next few weeks And now it can come a little insider It's also It's not a problem Yeah, exactly We had Hansa Biopharma They're doing With Njurtransplantationer It's a very lovable company They were in their own in their USA-studies.

10:14They thought they could be able to launch on a accelerated and just do it in a fast two. But they didn't do it. It felt like the first company was running out of the world. I saw that they were up to 300-400. Now it's about 35 kronor. And so they've done so many companies. They first launched in Europe. And there it goes always trough. It's every country that it's going to launch. It's much less price than the USA. so Oncopeptides kör ju också, fick ju nej i USA men kör Europa och man märker hur trögt det är och nu sålde de iväg hela den licensen till ett privatekt bolag och fick runt 110 miljoner euro för det men då var det ingen royalty i det här de hade en milestone att när de får ett riktigt godkännande skulle man få 5 miljoner euro till men här då kan man få bort hela sellstyrkan, de förstärker kassan rejält.

11:14De hade redan 700-800 miljoner i kassan och får in över en miljard till. Och market cap var lite över 3 miljarder. Och nu då får man in pengar för att kunna slutföra sin fas 3 i USA och lansera det här i USA. Där bolaget påstår att det finns en marknad på upp till 2 miljarder dollar. Och man har ju då, jag som satt och både led och slutade med I was going to do a good fest in Caliditas So you have the old Calidas VD René here Who has taken over the road And this one will be seen as If you take off a lot of the long-term But short-term So you save the financing From the coming of the emission And I think they have a little loan So they can solve with these things And now you can go all in On a USA Lansering The first three first.

12:08Den håller de på med. Så snart ska den bli klar och sen ska man lämna in och lansera. Och sen bli Kassaflöres positiva då. Jag har köpt lite idag för att se hur den handlas. Antingen i Svensk Biotech så är det ju en klassisk sell the news. Den var upp 20-25 % på det här. Tyckte jag lät ganska lite. Men i många av de här fallen så har du ju bara Onko var väl specialitet på det. Varje gång de fick ett godkännande eller någonting. Så öppna högt och gå ner hela dagen. Are you going to do it? How do they do it? When it is good? Then they will They will go to the same Then they can partner too I guess that they will go to the same And then they will go to the same And then they will go to the same And then they will go to the same But to go to the same To go to the same With the same strength It costs more than a billion So it is It is probably why I reacted to it I reacted first on that It was 24 % up But egen cell...

13:07De kommer inte ha 2 miljarder i kassan om några år här. Det kommer de kanske att ha när produkten är sålt. Men jag menar, som i alla biotechbolag så kassan kommer ju minska här. Speciellt om de ska bygga cellstruktur i USA. För det är inte billigt. Nej, men vi får se hur marknaden tolkar det här framåt. Jag har en position just nu som jag köpte idag. Får se om jag har kvar en vid stängning beroende på hur den handlar. Det känns verkligen som att det har varit två läger. Jag har handlat typ Sanjona och lite andra sådana aktier. Då bollas det runt hela dagen and then on a week's sicht so has it trended very well when all of them have gotten fin vin or has taken home or it has been a classic sell news so I will see how the hand we play in here around 3 how it is coming out but just now I'm in a way and I'm glad I'm at all that it's a bit of a future in svensk biotech it's not especially the last year in for biotech biotech-hosen which you always talk about if we look at the power Fastversvars.

14:03Och det är lite sammansatt med rymden. Där har det kommit ner rejält. Saab, vi har pratat om det tidigare. Saab har fortsatt ner. I dag kom det med deras... Sverige skulle beställa båtarna. Då har Frankrike lobbat rejält. Så det blev fyra franska båtar. Om det var fyra miljarder dollar stycke. En miljard dollar stycke kanske. Men... Vad tror du? Försvarsaktier? Vissa har kommit ner jättemycket. Is it like it's like a thing to do now or has the bubble gone out? On the rim? No, on the forsvars. On the forsvars. Saab and... I saw Mildef were there. I think that the long-term trend will be going to be in the money.

14:51But as it looks like now it's very much on... Xi said that Putin will be to be in the Ukraine invasion. Iran, USA Will Trump få till en deal här Snart i mellanårsval I november Han är totalt rökt om den här Konflikten fortfarande pågår för länge Så att oljepriset inte hinner komma ner Så Jag vet inte Det är väldigt sentimentstyrt Dels är det sentimentstyrt Jag såg att Mildef då hade varit med på 110 De kom med om en vinstvarning Uppet på 300, Insights -åldret ner Nu var det 170 so it feels much more specific now the evilly ETF influx that was week after week that Saab has taken off so now you can see what companies are there and look at a little bit on the value some companies have handled very high, some companies have much less we have talked about Kebney, Mildef 4C, it's a lot and small and some companies have managed better vissa inte.

15:58Så jag tror man du kommer ha en jättefin tillväxt i många av de här bolagen och sen får man bara titta lite på värderingen. Vilka är det som sticker ut åt de olika hållen. Ja och det är väl värderingarna tycker jag sticker fortfarande ut kanske lite på ovansidan. Ja. Men du kan ju köra andra derivatan alltså titta på bolag som levererar till försvarsindustrin. Alltså det är väldigt mycket investeringar som gör så väldigt mycket capex i försvarsindustrin överlag. Det ska byggas fabriker och det ska byggas allt möjligt och det ska It's a lot of material and so So you can look at a little bit more On the sectors And the other products Of the products that sell to the For the industry For there should be a relatively stable Yeah absolutely And maybe you can find other values And it's just a lot of people who try to To buy a For the industry Astor You saw how you did it You have Defensor Flats and then it's something that that H &M-gain gets to do so that's another thing but you want to have a hype meme variant on it which I still have a lot of it's still a rymd and and a forsake it's just a it's just a yeah with SpaceX IPOs so it's just a so you want to have something that's a little sex if we had a Underreal I Europa så hade ju det varit Superkul Det hade varit kul om Underreal Var noterat i USA också Men vi har ju inte riktigt Några sådana Vad heter de här det svenska som Spotify-gänget har investerat Helsing och tyska Helsing hade ju varit coolt Du vill ju ha någonting sånt sexigt då kanske Det finns ju ett satellitbolag Som heter OHB I Tyskland De var ju upp 17 % idag med någon deal with Helsing so it feels like the whole sector I don't understand why the company was super today, Saab had a lot of Ryanair Yeah, it was in a big deal, it was a big deal with four Fregatter bland annat but it's just just to look at the value and prognosticating and how do you play SpaceX IPA?

18:19I think the end of the trend the trend, the structure of trend is that it will not be to go to the end so it will buy on dips but yeah How do you play SpaceX IPO? Do you sell it at the same day as it has not been? It depends on how much it has gone If it's this one, I don't know but it's really about 3 euros today Yeah, today it's up 5 % exactly 3 euros, it's been a fantastic race since July It's like it's very weird. It can be 3.10 in a few days, and then it's 2.70 in a few days later. It's a very good deal. So I would see that it would be a proxy for a rymdhaw. For us europeers, for European European.

19:05For the tysk passions. They must have a exponer for saying that we also can't even say that we are long in gym. That's why I'm a good. Then it's much more expensive than all other satellite companies or what it is. It's just a multi-plastic. It's just a slag value. It was a slag value when it was on the top. But now it's still very expensive. Let's look at price sales and see if you have the American or anything else. Or the ones you mentioned in Tyskland. Rocket Lab has gone up. We talk about 100 times sales whereas CUTLs is like six times EVE. It's a very different skill. But it's because they are still in...

19:56...gammel business. ...fucket, that they are... ...we are sat. For it's what they hold on with a time. And not Leo, satellite, and... ...forsvar, and so many things. I think that... The company's sales is going to happen. It's just like the market, the company's sales. We had a report here for a week or two. And then you see that the company's sales are going to grow. I think Leo's sales have been 60 % in Leo business. So it's the future for the future. In Europe, we have Avio. The Italian rocket-to-work. They had for the rest of the company a good upskjutment. It's a very good company. They work with NASA and work with cool things.

20:47It's a very cool company. Do you know what it is? No, I don't think I'm going to take it in the next week. I'm going to go to three weeks. Yeah, I'm going to go to 100 % on a year, but I'm going to go to 14 % on a month, 13 to 3 months. So I'm going to go to 4%. So it's just a bit weird that everything is in a group. Precis, and then we have some real memes that can go. Amentum, in the USA, it's a engineering and technology company that works with the USA and the with the USA, all myndigheter and so on, in the air and energy. Bland annat they did the mark system to the NASA's Artemis - which is what it was here.

21:37And so they are under-referentors to raketer and defense services with the air and expo. And then there is another that is Redwire Corporation. It's also a meme stock. but they do like solar panels, satellite antennas and all that, docking system in the room, all the room infrastructure is what they do so when we talk about data center in the room there will be a press - I say not that this is the quality of this it's just that they hold on with when you read about them it's science fiction it's what they say so it's them two Avio and Eutelsa it's not memes docs it's elic to say They are not so much, but they are really really good.

22:30Eutelsat is more than an avion. Avion is a research company, but they do very cool things. Super good. So it's probably the four that I think... It's probably not a mistake to have two europeans, but SpaceX is an American. I think it's a lot of capital in Europe that doesn't have to be able to buy American. And so, then we have to find a European variant. And in Sweden, we have OAC and Unibap and Gomspace if you just want to go on. Yeah, exactly. Ofson. They have to even have a satellite. They have to have a satellite with SpaceX. Now I don't know. The market is so dumb. So they can do a couple of things.

23:12Oh, Ofson got to try SpaceX for that to go up. Shit. They have a job of working on the same. But what the fuck? Yeah. I've actually looked at it. It has come down a little bit. It's not on high. So if it's going to be a high. Yeah. And then when it's the next to the CPU, we'll talk a little bit. Man will absolutely not be able to buy SpaceX. Now it's like it's going to be a lot of luck on a little free float. So that the Axel can go up. But the first day will be so clear. It's classic. Then they look at the lockup That's going to come out And what it's worth If it's 100 times sales And what it's like It's just people who Gick fordonsprogrammet Som now all the other No, but some have Have a SpaceX and work with Motor and have a little All of them will be able to sell When they can I heard that it would be an enormous Vinst for Austin as a stad for almost all the anställda work and work in Austin.

24:16So there will be many more very rich. Verily. But the lockups will be able to get out and so it will be self-flöder and of course it will be for it is life changing money for many of them it is not the few people who work on SpaceX it is how many people and then the investerare that has been with from the beginning it is a mega-resa so it is clear that it will come Yeah, liquiditet thereifrån Absolutely Och det är väl väl som är Cerebras heter de va De satte väl, i alla fall tillfället har de satt toppen i halvledare nästan på dagen och inför den så när de failade så tog då började halvledarmarknaden fullständigt gasa Wall Street jobbar ju lite såhär, de pumpar ju If they have a big IPO to do, then it will pump.

25:15No one will sell half-lead before we have sat on the market. And it's probably so I think that a blueprint for SpaceX, a brand-based company, in for SpaceX, maybe not to live after. When it comes to big companies, Antropic and OpenAI, they are just behind it after. They will see who comes first. but it's a lot of capital from other things on the market. Some will sell all the lockups that are going to sell. It's very much capital when it's so big. All right, SpaceX, Hyperliquid, there it is now. You can play on what IPO-pris - which will be. It's almost 2 trillion dollars, at least in the helgen.

26:05And it's the most important The biggest IPO in the world So you can think that If you look at the market So you don't look at the IPO On the bottom Can you say So it's been extremely exciting And it will create a lot of Svalvågor Runtom

26:33We are sponsored by Avanza. I would like to tips on their analysis. The analysis has made a series of the various analysis. There is Kepler Chevroë. The most of all analysis has been in the last 10 years. Theirs råd has overrestered Stockholmsbörsen with 10 ,7 %-enheter. and this will be a private banking with Avanza. So it's very good to be able to do that. You can be sure for your analysis but it's also good to stem with someone else who has written or some estimates. Or just to get up the more pitchers you get the better. Yes, to the end you choose something good. Exactly. I think you want to start with an automatic month from Avanza's sparkonto they have.

27:25Sparkonto, there can you get to get a rent on your liquid. It's for example if you have got a or you have sold something or a job or something, so you can invest it there and get it there and get it on the money. And then you can invest it in a month so you can spend it in a month or something, but you don't want to stop everything in a month. Then you can spend it there and get it and then you can spend it on the money in what you have chosen to spend it. And it's a very good chance that you can do it very automatised and smoothed, while you can get it while you can pitch it in and maybe snittar in sig i någonting.

27:57Ja, det låter ju briljant. Ja, enkelt men väldigt smidigt. Ta åt er de här tipsen och stort tack Avanza. Men kom ihåg, investeringen bär risk och det är inte säkert att du får tillbaka hela ditt investerade kapital.

28:16Om vi hoppar vidare då så har jag handlat lite Noreon. Balder var ju storägare, ägde 40 % av Noreon. De har delat ut det här so Baldr has become a brand why should they have a bank so first I was a little short then I realized because then all Baldr have been and then it was a fastid it was other fonds that wanted to have a a fastid company like Baldr but they didn't have a Norrion then they got it on so then you could have known that the akties would sell quite fast but I thought that the akties were I was very strong, so I stopped my shorting with a little bit and went on the Friday. I saw people had gotten their own and they came out of their own.

29:04I bought it in a Friday and now on two days I have gotten a fantastic discount. So today I have sold a little but I'm still there. I think it's a nice case. It's a case I love when it's a fictive try. Alla mille kom. Nu har den kommit upp. Igår var den upp 6%, 3 % idag. Så den enkla resan är väl gjord då från 49 till 54. Men aktien är ju ner ganska mycket. Ner 20-30 % i år. Och har väl gått ner mycket för man visste att de här aktierna skulle ut. Bolaget handlas till P5. Handlas till kraftrabatt mot andra banker. Har gjort en ganska bra resa här. from being a spreted company to a more renodled company and a bank.

29:54You have Nossman, who is a CEO of here. He's a for 150 million. You have a pilot school. Celine is a big owner. It's a quite interesting case. Dels kortsiktigt, because the course has come down a lot on the part of this part of the part of the part of the part of the part of the part. Even long-siktigt, that it It's a discount. So we'll see how long I'm going to pay. But it's an interesting play just now. Balder got a lot on this out. Because then the actuals would go down. Because I got the Norden-acties. And I think the actuals were on plus. The day. Because it became a clean-up. So here you can say that it was 1 plus 1, 3.

30:41Or it was a badder. and then it's also been happening quite a lot in the past sector Svea Fastigheter and Clara Bo went together SBB had even been in some little pastigheter so it's been all the companies have been doing kraftful rebate you'll know you'll see more of this when you're you're you'll get less rent you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can you can It seems like you need to do a little financial akrobatical here for to get up the course. And try to find arbitrage in between. See what you can do. If you want to do a financial akrobatical then even Ilja Battlan is in the episode.

31:35So they were in 3-4 hours and were a mistake with tech. Then they took Ilja in a little fasted in this. and now they have bombated in fastigheter, so now I think that kurs was up in 27 hours or something but no one has got the you know, you know, you know, you know they're going to get their fastigheter from different convertibles and akties classic Lehman Air and the new owners who have been in their fastigheter, they haven't got their so just now it's going to get so many akties and it looks like it's a low price value, but the price value is much higher and the day when people can sell their so I don't think it's going to be like a cool But now it's a wild trading-actie It's like Westum and all these companies Under 2021-year-old They just bought new things, bought new things The course goes up for every single-actie So if you look at some of the things You can look at Episurf I don't know If you don't have any interest in the day So it's a big deal I don't know And it's often going to end with a tóra When someone gets out all their actuals That they've got on four-hour I saw how Mofast was One of these companies that had been built in And to get to buy four And to get to buy four And to buy four And to buy four And to buy four It was good So called it Pappersvinster It was good On paper What do you say More about Semiconductor And your best We just need to talk about The HSN Because the one is Historically Bank of America Came out With Fund manager Survey It was the biggest Alloceringshop from pessimism to fund managers their exponering they've been from the top level of 3 ,9 % cash so they've been very much what's the best bransch they've been half-ledare and they had this This is when the biggest IPO in the year comes in the next week.

33:43And then when they have the expo, it falls in half-year index 8 % on a few days. What I react to is that I understand that data center, it needs a lot of chips, a lot of money, etc. etc. Alla säger att det här inte är en cyklisk puckel utan det här är en strukturell högre plateau av efterfrågan. Det jag reagerar på, jag skrev en text om det här förra veckan på min blogg. En dikt. En dikt, exakt. Och det jag menar är att för många nya som kanske inte har sett se med conductors eller halvledare i industrin förut det är inte första gången det är en mega-hås i det här. So how does the company look at?

34:31For all of these half-led companies And it's a lot of other companies It's like the company Minne for example First it's a brist And then it's a lot of money Sandisk and Micron And what they do It's just like a single-led company Just now they have 69 % margin That Micron has And it's about EBIT 7 But it's peak earnings It's clear that it can be different under den här gången, Famous Last Worlds. Men om man tittar historiskt så har det typ aldrig varit så. Och kineserna har ju startat två nya bolag de senaste sju åren som nu är redan uppe tillsammans och har 14 % av världsmarknaden på minne. Alltså det man kallar för DRAM.

35:13Så jag menar, kineserna ligger inte på latsidan heller. Och alla de här bolagen, om det så är SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, de kinesiska, vad det nu är. Nu kommer det vara varför det är så cykliskt oftast. It's just like the next question, it's just like the raw market. You know how much copper is going to be able to ask for 4 or 10, 10, 6 years. And then you start to start a group. But all of these SK Hynix or Samsung or these companies, they look at the after-prognosis and say that after-prognosis is going up with 60 % on so many years. Or per year, it's well now, after-prognosis. But then it's not so that the company says that the market will grow 60%.

35:56you have the market and we have the market first and foremost they will grow more market so they will buy 60 % capacity for that to produce 60 % more now I don't know if it is 60 % I just took the number of the siffers but then they will grow more than that for Samsung will also take market from SK Hynix they will grow more than market and all are doing this and it's that it always gets over capacity And then when the new fabriker That's 4 years to be And cost 20 billion dollars When they've gone live So it's very high cost cost And so that should be So even if After the future After the future And the price of the minne So they continue to produce Which makes it always So deep down And it's the same thing In the industry Alltså If it's so In copper Or what it is It's the same thing It goes in so many cycles Now you're on With AI And so It's not a hype or a bubble.