Avsnitt 589 - Osociala medier

0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.

0:43Transcription by CastingWords I'm in Tarifa, the sydlystest spot in Spain. So I'm looking for Morocco and Swiss Peak. It's just a mile in between, or if it's 12 kilometers. So I'm looking for Africa. You can most kite over to Africa. Yeah, exactly. I've taken some kite-leksion here. If you're not in the market, you'll go out and crash a little. Exactly. Then you'll take the Mediterranean and Atlantis. Then you'll meet here. Yeah, snyggt. Jag körde Gotland förra veckan. Nu är jag i Kalmar. Jag kör lite Sverige-turné innan det blir utomlands. Men det känns som att jag har haft en ganska lugn period.

1:23Nu är det ju den stora rapportveckan. Idag var det väl rapporterna som drog ivång. Så det ska vi prata lite om. Jag har en liten sociala medier AI-spaning här. Sen är det lite bolag kopplade till AI. Lite level två här som har börjat röra på sig. Sen hade vi en av de största double noteringarna någonsin, SK Hynix gjorde sin notering, du gick all in Nej det gjorde jag inte men jag tittade på den Ja, det känns som ett sånt här event där alla sitter och bevakar och sen är det någon form av piken i den aktien och sen har ju de börjat bråka i Iran igen, så där har vi skickat ner jag trodde du skulle säga att du var nere i Mellanöstern så du kunde uppdatera live där Ja, exakt But it's been a lot to talk about.

2:12It's like now you can go down a little inför the report instead of the report. Yes, exactly. Let's go up here inside the report. Yes, we're going to go.

2:30We're sponsored by Robomarkets. The report has not really taken off in the USA. But there are still great news. We have both SpaceX and now we had XK Hynix, the minnestillverkaren. Both of these companies can handle from long-sidan, from the period they are called, but even from, if you want to blank, so can you cut them. And if you want to go long, you can do it on your ISK with a dollar-konto with a dollar, so you don't have to do it. How do you look at the USA-bolag? Is there anything else that is called? ja ja mniejaij forsvaat magzaven belitens holders k Gabriel Taken 될 med ett

3:23seismic

3:33ett seismic and that it slår på marginalerna. And that's what I think is a little bit of a theme. So it's probably interesting both in the semiconductor companies and half-legged companies like Microm, SK Hynix and Sandisk and all the other. And Magnificent Save 7 and Hyperscreders. So it's perfect to have a company on Robomarkets if you want to sell it in the USA. You have a USD and Euro. and then there are no available to them so you can even cut Yes, and then we have a tip about their podcast 4 minutes for Wall Street when you're on the play and want to get a little up to date in the USA so you can find it on Spotify and other podcast platforms and if you want to open a konto or have any questions so you can contact Max and Simon on Stockholmskontoret Stort tack!

4:30But come remember, investering in your risk and it's not that you'll get back your investerate capital.

4:40We'll start with the report. We had a bad report from Ericsson. It was the last one. They often used to come with a PANG-report. He didn't even know how to do the minst prices and the other. It's like the fact that the stock has gone very strong. They used to move on the report. And now it's time for a higher expectations of higher cost. You are the expert here in the pod. What are you saying? No, but it's not so much to say. Componentbrist. Componentbristen has gone up. It's what you're saying. It can be interesting when the new one takes over. After the first report can it be interesting. It's interesting.

5:26Städer ut lite nere. Exakt. Jag kollar här på kursen var uppe i 125 som högst. Det känns som att Ericsson och framförallt Nokia har ju dragits med i AI, AI11 och liknande. Nu när vi fått den här AI-nedgången Nokia kommer ner från 13 euro till 440. Så det känns ju liksom lite sentimentdrivet här. Vad det blir av här. Andra rapporter jag tittat på Mycronic kom med en fantastisk rapport de har lite mer i det här nästa segmentet är det ett AI-bolag eller inte vi hade Lime det är väl intressant för de som följer Topware att ett sånt bolag kan gå upp 10 % det är väl det här SOS-Mageddon som vi kallas och det är väl det man tror när man står i alla fall utifrån att det kommer inte komma några vibe-kodade grejer kommande tre kvartalen utan det här är ju någon form av five-year-old-year-old-year-old.

6:28Värderingen på ARR och SaaS-intäkter ska helt förändras. Det kanske kan vara lönsamt att köpa lite SaaS-bolag som har kommit ner jättemycket, för det kommer inte synits något i rapporterna än från SaaS-bolagen. Jag tror att man vill bara få in det billigt. Vad vill man få in billigt? SaaS-bolagen. Och sen kommer det ju finnas kvartal som blir bra. I think on the long term, as you said, the five-year plan, it's probably difficult to increase prices and grow. For it might be all that. I don't know if I think that there are so many companies who will be able to go to their own solutions, but I think that there will be more competition.

7:08Yeah, it will probably be more. And then it seems like one of the most difficult things is about P-Bolag and the other. It's about buying and selling a company. All right, how are the value of the value? Now it's more, if they come down to the price, then it's a good price to pay for it. i återkommande intäkten. Det kommer spruta in pengar i bolagen, men det kanske är svårt att få 20-30 gånger någon vinst nu helt plötsligt. Ja, men precis. För att just att den här tillväxtfaktorn kanske flackar. då slår ju det rätt mycket på multiplarna. Men som kassaförers case så kan det ju bli bra att äga. Ja, men annars har det väl inte kommit så...

7:49Jag tror att det är rätt sprida skurar. Just det här med I think it's more competition and it's probably going to be a war that you can concur with a price and then it's difficult as they have had golden days where they can't go to increase prices every year and they can't do up sales on the customer and I think that's more trough rot and it's much where the impact is. Yeah, but it's just like Fortnox is very interesting what it will be of it of the company, they have been increasing prices. They have been out and screaming. But many companies have just been able to do it all. They have 50-50 % per year and the customer has no choice.

8:32Exactly, and I think just that it will be possible. And other companies, Noreon, which I owned before, has come much today. The report was bad, but they are still in the same way. And the company is also billy, but it's maybe a bit of a an excuse. I saw Xvivo it was interesting with all Medtech-report the one was down 8 % it was a strong average but a less margin and then I was wondering how to take in the one. The one was down 8 % so it's a little bit of a tumour the market is on. Now we're in a little bit of a a little bit of a third day in a row. It's not a lot of but it's more like that some of the companies are up 10 % and some of them are down.

9:16I haven't seen any tydly trend yet. I say that Daddy Care has gone bad so long. The one is up 16%. So it's a little... Yeah, I'm sitting and reading a DN-referat here. I don't think that's really true. No. So, and then we had a bud on Banhoff. Which has been very discussed. Carlung, the president of the president, has been the urfad for Swedish internet. and no monopol and not to let us take away integrity and like and now they have to sell themselves to Telenor here one special thing was that he sold himself for 60 and gave rest of the tax including the other side of the other side 62 kronor so it's a little bit people think that the premium is low and many are out and screaming that they should buy operator and like that so it's a I have own it hemma som jag tror också är som tidigare var ju känt för superbra, snabbt, fiber hej och hå, men jag tror att om det är Telenor som är där i bakgrunden också och där känns det nästan som att man har gått på en blåsning för då kör de ingen kundservice, de kör kvar det här gamla inte öppet på helgen och liknande men om jag skulle teckna Telenor då får jag i alla fall lite service här så det blir intressant vad Banoff är om 2-3 år men Telenor måste ju räkna på det här and Telia bought Breban 2 what say you here, pay first or are you angry on Carl Jung?

10:50No, pay first I'm telling you I'm happy, I'm happy I'm happy I'm not I'm not I'm not doing anything I've done anything it's like now it's been something that it's going to be new operators with all from VPN to to get into the most it feels like all this with the internet it goes just a bit of a goal with EU so it feels like you've never got so much there I don't know I don't know if I do so much as I as I really want as I'm not sure if I annonser your Instagram swipe and it's like and bitter and like but it's my 4-year daughter that's a clip on the card it's what you do I read Peter Benson it was up 100 times so I'm up 55 % on 5 years plus a little of course but it's still like this is a super-stabilt It's a big deal.

12:06It's a big deal. The deal is not so big. It's just a big deal. They got pretty good. I'm not paying for other brands. But we'll see if it comes in. Some of the others. If you get a higher budget. I Sint, for example, we got a higher budget. We'll see if it comes in. And we'll talk about it. My next sparing was social media. Now it's summer So It's interesting to meet What it's going to be here We have Facebook Which is probably our 40-year generation I'm not in the long way We are in some form of Instagram-generation And now with AI and the same So it's just like it's just Professionellt material It's influencers, it's a lot of stuff It's a lot of stuff Now on the summer People have some private videos but I have more and more of the pause on the summer so I try to understand and now I can put up what else with AI-generating and it feels like it's it's cool if you're on TikTok or Reels and just look at the clip but now isn't the clip really long so I don't know it's very interesting to meet the players here the 5-10 years now they'll slay different AI-grej it's a super-tung kill from if it was open AI or like.

13:33They did a little comeback on the market. What do you say about the social media trend and AI? I think that both Facebook... Facebook has Messenger, maybe people still use it.

13:49Instagram... As you said, it's just like a commercial. Man does a clip with people on the other side. and so many things. But I'm going to use Snapchat for it's still a communication tool in all of the younger generation. There you go. You don't have a number anymore but you can use Snapchat. And I think it's a far to lose the communication tool. You're going to use WhatsApp. There's not really what the model is. Either they're going to scrap all the equipment even if you have a lot of integrity and stuff. But you don't pay for WhatsApp. So it's hard to know. You know, they're very many kunders, but you don't have any reclamation there.

14:37And they don't pay for it either. So they don't pay for it either. But you don't pay for it either. But it's still where much communication is. And they might train their LLM on it. But Ometa should also come with their own AI. So they've got to get us in a peace-krig here. or they start the price of war now when budget the price of war and all the money comes from the market so they start the price of war their money and they will be gratis and they will be paying money on their app and not the money but they will be gratis open they will even do their own AI chip it takes time and it is very difficult and avancerated but they will maybe they will I think just on social media and some social media have become so commercial so that you don't think it's like a lot more.

15:33If you go on Instagram you can't get to be able to sell something. It's like to put on a market or a bazaar. They've done all the flow and it's for you. It's not them you follow. You're completely bortmaneuverad mot vad det var innan. Jag har aldrig fattat det där flödet som är för dig. Jag vill inte ha alltså hela min upplevelse är att jag vill ju se nya saker som jag inte visste att jag tyckte om förstår jag vad jag menar. Flödet för mig är jag typ aldrig inne på för det är inte intressant. Utan man vill ju se och inom situationstecken uppleva nya saker, se nya saker förstår jag vad jag menar.

16:15Ja men absolut. Så det är i alla fall inte I'm not sure that I'm not sure that I'm not sure that I'm looking for a lot of people. I'm not sure that I'm looking for a lot of people. I know what I think is. I'm not sure that I'm looking for things that I didn't know. What do you mean? I read that they had developed. Well, the world is less than a lot of people. It's a lot of people. And that's the whole social media. If you have a certain point, you just need to make them. But another thing I read about that they had developed, which I've noticed, is their advertising. That before it was just random and you just got to get a lot of shit on a bike.

16:49And now when you're at the same time on Gotland or when you're here, you get to get a geotagged, niche ad, where they're probably using it the last year's AI that makes it extremely better. He's very good at Zuckerberg on this. I've just got to see what Instagram and Facebook is. how big it is of Meta. He has probably a bigger plan of this. My claim to fame is that I was on a visit on Meta or Facebook, with a guy who was quite high up for 10-15 years. And then he went through a room. And then he had gone through that room then he sat there in a lot of open landscape. I don't know if he still does it.

17:34But he is a guy you want to invest in. It's just that you don't see his playbook just now. And you might see the name of the meta. That it's probably what's the end game. Metaverse. So we don't see it on Instagram and think that it will change. Because there is no plan there. Yeah, it's guaranteed. And it's one of the strengths with X or Twitter. That it's not that you use it when you talk about your friends. But there are people who write. It's very much botar. but you know, I don't know what you know in any case, it's not a lot of people and write, so it's authentic material it's not so much commercial on Twitter, it's not that you use it so much yeah, and it's snarely like a it's not a competition with I'm not saying that it's social media it's a new media for that with what we're doing with I don't want to have a full-time-to-value article or for us it's just a way to do it or something happens and before it goes through a redaction and that you have taken care of and all then it's already already done so it's just a much easier way to have a hum about current events and then there are many people who write about the market and the market and everything else but I would not set it in the social media, the facket like Instagram, Facebook or Snapchat Nej, och om vi hoppar vidare till lite AI-relaterade bolag då så har man sett Bravida, har gått väldigt bra de får massa ordrar inom datacenter P-Cell, Powercell, släppte en nyhet igår de fick en datacenterorder och sen en potentiell order som var på miljardbelopp men den kändes klassisk småbolag BushiWushi Micronic kom med en superrapport både AI-kopplad och försvarskopplad The one has gone extremely well.

19:35It's on all time high. It's really smooth under radar. Mycronic is up 55 % on a year. It's been a bit of a year. It's been a bit of a year. It's been a bit of a year from 200 to 330. It's been a bit of a year. It's been a bit of a year. It's been a bit of Caterpillar. It's been a bit of a year. If you want to leave the hyperscalers and minnesbolag. so it feels like this could be next sector, all the companies that gynnas of the whole data center boom. Yes, I would also say that they have hackers and spiders. Are you looking at some? I've looked at the Celestica for example, which is notated in the USA and Canada.

20:25They build data center and infrastructure around they build even energy solutions and so on. and even the server rackets the Celestica that's all the components it was you who talked about it or another colleague it was a battery company so if the el was going to be able to have a generator or a battery in all data centers so you can have a backup exactly so they are in a generator company that goes on gas or it's some of the energy you can drive them on gas you can drive them on diesel or you can drive them on a natural but they have gone to to the morning so you must find a step after it what you said you must find a step after it exactly I think that these buildings if all of them are off it's not sure that all of them are coming out of it takes a long time it's not going to be guaranteed it's the end we know it's true many will not be off but under the time The ones that are on the way to buy, then it's like a company like Celestia that's worth paying.

21:35They're just like what they can buy for them as well. They can't keep it. So they can't keep it so long as it goes. But over that, budget has been very stretched. It's all the time. Amazon took 25 billion dollars for the week to AI to buy. Tropics wrote a deal of 20 years ago, which was 19 billion dollars for a data center. and Meta came out for the week so that they were going to buy a data center in Canada for 9 billion dollars. EQT bought a data centers from Carlisle for 2 ,6 billion dollars. So it's the hottest play in town. But much does it now on loan. You take in money, so much liquidity is going to be in this.

22:21And the balance of the balance of the hyperskrile begins to be a little bit more. forul owe they put all these projects into their own so that drives notimental language on what to put money, give a profit in their profits then you put it into their own jain but also believe that it takes to make получается like anatory but it's slightly the record for around 350 milliard seels the last years that has taken Alltså som man har tagit på sig I obligation Så man får betala det här Så det är ju rätt stor bygghås Ja det är precis Det känns I Sverige det känns både motsatsen Och samma sak som alla byggbolag till Norr förvalt Alltså plötsligt stod de där och så fanns det ingen Köpare längre Eller så kommer ju några väldigt många Byggbolag inom det här kommer ju tälja Guld Och sen som jag har nämnt innan Det finns ju en risk I don't think you've heard Microsoft, Nadella or Google, talk about the mind-brist in the future.

23:31Or the midi-chip. In the year is the big thing in the future. I would say that for the year was still GPU-brist. All the midi-chip. You don't have to worry about it's difficult to take on the midi-chip. No. So if data centers take so long time to build. Why? I'll come back to this argument Michael Burry, the famous short Fondsvaltaren From the film The Big Short His sub-stack Collega He says that the Avskrivningarna on the chip Will be big But he has not seen it And the reason to it can be That you have a big lager With chip and minne But they have not installed yet Because the data center-byggnad Tar so long time And if you haven't installed a hardvara or a half-leder, you can't write off the hardware, but it's first when the hardware sets in use.

24:26Yes, exactly. So, the screen comes. It's just not happened. Meanwhile, Nvidia and the companies say that they take it on the other argument. No, our chip holds much longer than I thought. But I don't think it's so. I think it's not that you have installed everything you have bought. Because data centers are not on place. Because it's a need for you to build new network. And before you have built a new network, it's difficult to go to... Before you have got it, it's difficult to build a network. And build a data center and build up server. It's like there are AI and business companies, which we've talked about, XK Hynix, they've got up much on their notary.

25:15Then they've come down, all the business companies have come down. and it was Meta who said that they had over capacity of data. Compute, which they would sell. Yes, and then I was going to come to that they would sell something from 1 billion to 5 billion dollars. So it feels like there's a lot of sentiment here. Cosby, the sydkoreansk börs, where all of them are talking about half-stown and like that, the one has come down 30 % from the top. And there you see that the stockholders have gone down on Iran. The price has not really gone down on AI-neupting.

25:52The company's worth of 5-7 P-e-snitt. But the half-lead is just cyclical. So it's super-billig. It's just like the market. You want to buy them on high P-e-tal and not low. Yes, it has said now in two years. Had man köpt de här på låga P12 Så hade man ju varit oändligt framgångsrik Så det gäller ju bara att förstå P12-talet var ju högre i alla fall för tre år sedan Ja absolut Så det gäller ju bara att förstå här när det Toppar ur Sen kan vi ju komma in på det att Kina De kör ju liksom ett helt eget ekosystem Och de har ju släppt Vi nämnde det i förra podden De har ju släppt open source-modeller Som ligger sig jämsides i världsrankingen Med de bästa modellerna som västvärlden har plockat fram Och de har ju byggt det They say about the original chip from Huawei and the two of these, two big bucks are actually surrounded by clawedEC, from one of our hand, which is already called in the years.

26:53The two are relatively new companies and have still half of the factor of 15 % of the average market. And one of the big open source models that are really good They say that they also need to do their own chips So even in Kina started to come konkurrens on the side of the mind And it's interesting because we have had restrictions on our mind to Kina For that to break them But it's not that we have built a parallel tech stack where they have their own prylar. Yes, it was quite clear when it was a form of both a fight and a war against each other. So, China will be able to do their own models. Exactly, and now it started to be a war.

27:51I Kina concurrerar de mot varandra också och nu börjar det bli konkurrens här, vi såg att Apple stämde OpenAI för spionage för OpenAI pratar ju om att de ska göra någon telefon eller någon hårdvara och OpenAI har ju lockat över 400 anställda från Apple, bland annat en toppchef som nu leder OpenAIs hårdvarudel och tagit med sig hemliga ditningar för att bygga egna AI-gadgets och prylar och antar att det är telefon or laptop. And then we see that Microsoft has been out of OpenAI and Tropics models in Excel and Outlook. So it has come priskrig and concurrence and it has new AI models that do quite a lot of what you use to, to a much less cost or almost gratis if you do it on device or use an open source model.

28:45So the question is how much of what people use today can do with a gratis model. I think it's relatively much. Yes, but then it's going to be a lot for a common man and then for those who do important things or advanced things, so they probably never have it. Precis. So I think that the smekmånader in AI race is over. Now it's about all the series. Famous last word. I say not that I say not that the end of the year, but I mean, before it was like, you know, you buy what's with AI for it. You know, you start to see the big companies look at their marginal. What's this cost? Is it a better alternative?

29:27The first level thinking, that it's just to hop in, the water is warm. It's a bit over. Now all of them start to look at what's this cost? What's this alternative? and we have the best model on just this and I mean and it's very interesting if EU will need to take off their own LLM models or if we can fly to the American Yeah, it it's a long book it's a long job it's probably the French Mistral it's probably the ones that are coming to Europe exactly

30:10We'll see a little crypto. It seems like it has stabilized a bit here when the market has become stronger. It has been a bit weak on the end of the market, but it has not really been affected crypto. We've been around 58 ,000 on the 1st July and now we're on 62 ,000 in Bitcoin. It's not a fest, but it's still been stabilized and been up a little. How are you looking at crypto? I think that it's event-schemas That's interesting Dels has Kevin Wors, the new Fed-chef He has not shown In his communication So it doesn't look so high-acted As he thought And now for more in the middle-of-the-art That's how it's going to be So it's not that he is He is more dovish So we see if he gets to the oil price and he says that inflation has gone down and it should be positive for risk of the increase like bitcoin for example or crypto over the last same with the regulator's clarity act it is that it will be a place in the Senate and the Senate will be able to get it on place before the election or the Republican will get it on place before the election and then it is a tight time for the Senate because they go on a hold in August.

31:33After that, all will be focused on the middle of the election. So it's before they go on a hold that it's going to be clubbed. There are a lot of things on the scheme that it's going to be clubbed. You want to get a clear-to-act on the place. It's going to be a frisk how it's going to be constructed and formulated. But it would be a better security for crypto if it comes on place. So I think it's a pretty big impact that you can get from Trump administration to get on place before the Senate goes on. And then we talk about crypto so we do it with our sponsor Virtune. Vissa gillar to buy crypto when it's hett.

32:15We're looking at it when it's not like hett. And it's it now. And they have a lot of products if you want to buy a little bit With crypto-exponering, we have Vertune Coinbase 50, which is their largest product with exponering up to 50 of the most and most like the crypto-to-time. Then we have Vertune Crypto Top 10 Index, Altcoin Index. So they have many different alternatives if you want to put in a little every month while crypto is on a little lower level. Yes, exactly.

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