In short
Market recap focused on “record” moves in both directions, driven by Swedish politics/elections, AI/IT-security news, oil/gas and rates, plus specific stock/sector trades.
Guests
The episode is hosted by two Swedish market commentators (names not clearly stated in the transcript). One repeatedly discusses intraday trading, options/September effects, and specific Swedish/US tickers; the other contributes analysis and commentary on AI regulation/security and macro.
Key claims
- Analysts’ models can miss accounting effects; “book-to-book” vs cash flow/activations can create large post-report drawdowns.
- AI regulation and “frontier” model economics may slow capex, while major players may benefit from an “oligopoly”/closed ecosystem.
- Cyber/agent security is a growing risk; open-source makes it harder to contain.
- Oil/gas and yen/Fed/BoJ moves are central near-term drivers.
Notable examples
- Asker (medtech) sale/earnings: analyst view vs actuals; ~15% vs ~20% down.
- SBB: hybrid/D-aktie dispute; large premium then sharp downside; need for votes at stämma.
- Index changes: Bloom Energy, Illumina, Everpure added; Trade Desk, Coors removed.
- AI: Anthropic/OpenAI “brake” narrative; AI infrastructure spending (Finland/Google, Nokia/Fortum deal).
- Oil: Nordsjö/Brent sentiment; gas prices high; diesel/Ukraine-linked disruptions.
- Trading examples: OMX mean reversion; AstraZeneca “bad study” then biotech surge; Octave/US open.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Updates and Trading Insights
0:36 to 1:54
Discussion on recent trading experiences and market fluctuations, covering gains and losses.
“longwolf So I had two of my biggest winters and fluster intraday.”
Analyzing Market Trends in Medtech
3:11 to 4:54
Discussion on recent trends in the Medtech sector, focusing on stock performance and analytics.
“But remember, investing in your risk is not sure you'll get back your capital.”
The Impact of Analyst Ratings
4:54 to 7:20
Exploring how analyst ratings can affect stock prices and market behavior.
“I think it's not any O yanl is no negative it doesn't require any and räddar dig.”
Current Events and AI News
7:20 to 11:54
Discussion of recent AI news and its implications for various industries.
“Here it has been a little dream of a year to get these two kronor per year.”
Reflections on Market Dynamics
11:54 to 14:00
A reflective conversation on the motivations and behaviors of market players amidst recent trends.
Market Cynicism and Tech Giants
14:00 to 15:00
Discussion about the cynical view of the market held by tech giants and their motivations.
“Som var med år 2000 Och vet hur man håsar Och vet vad marknaden vill ha De är rätt cyniska De ser marknaden som en pengarkran Och det är dags Eller man måste passa på Vilka människor tänker du här på?”
The Role of Capital Markets
15:00 to 16:40
Exploration of how capital markets are perceived and utilized by tech companies.
“And it's not that all are talking about.”
AI Predictions and Safety Concerns
16:40 to 18:40
Analysis of predictions surrounding AI safety and the implications of recent statements by industry figures.
“so that the time you can get into the income and show you more money, the price of the money, the price of the money.”
Commoditization in AI
18:40 to 20:40
Discussion on how AI is becoming a commodity and its impact on market players.
“I think they understand themselves that they just want to save up their cash so that they're still there after it goes down.”
Cybersecurity and AI Agents
20:40 to 22:30
Insights into the growing importance of cybersecurity in relation to AI advancements.
“that we've been talking about so long ago.”
Show all 22 chapters
AI and IT Security Challenges
22:30 to 24:10
Examination of the challenges faced in IT security as AI technology evolves.
“that you must put on much more so I think Apple a little with your safety and your safety I still I have never virus on my iPhone for was always virus on PC but it never got Mac data Exactly, it was for a short time.”
Oil and Gas Market Dynamics
24:10 to 26:40
Analysis of current trends and sentiments in the oil and gas markets.
“For that they react very negatively on a so-called fredsuppgörelse.”
Political Influences on Oil Prices
26:40 to 28:00
Discussion regarding how political events and decisions affect oil prices and market stability.
“So it's not going to be so easy for them.”
Market Dynamics and AI Influence
28:00 to 29:10
Discussion on how AI impacts market dynamics and capital allocation.
“But AI-frosan Some are now The The The create also more capital over to the market.”
Interest Rates and Economic Implications
29:10 to 31:00
Exploring the implications of rising interest rates on the economy and investments.
“I'm going to go back but so much have not gone up and I wonder if it's not peak fair for the market that they should go down it's 5 % with a little AI-frosa now and some things.”
Political Climate and Economic Policies
31:00 to 33:50
Analyzing the intersection of political decisions and economic policies in Sweden.
“Men ränteuppgången är inte alltid dåligt.”
Electoral Outcomes and Their Impact
33:50 to 35:50
Discussion on the outcomes of recent elections and their potential impacts on governance.
“you must be able to be able to be able to do it with it.”
Market Reactions and Future Predictions
35:50 to 37:30
Insights into how markets are reacting to political events and possible future scenarios.
“So they have done so many and the other side of the left, fram och tillbaks hela tiden.”
Central Bank Policies and Global Markets
37:30 to 42:00
Exploring central bank strategies and their effects on global financial markets.
“to get to someone who can sit and regerate.”
Market Movements and Bank of Japan Insights
42:00 to 43:34
Discussion on recent market movements and the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions.
“Men jag tycker inte man ska ta den här kvällsrörelsen så mycket utan mer hur det har rört sig kommande 24 timmar på Indic.”
Stock Highlights: Fill and Kill
43:34 to 46:05
Analysis of recent stock trades including successes and failures.
“No, the one I have taken a lot of interest on.”
Market Sentiment and Future Predictions
46:05 to 47:24
Exploration of market sentiment and future investment strategies.
“It's very clear and it's very much fear-mongering in the market, even my kill.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Just what is it that you want to do? We want to be free. We want to be free to do what we want to do. And we want to get loaded. And we want to have a good time. And that's what we're going to do. But wait baby, let's go! We're going to have a good time. We're going to have a party.
0:36longwolf
0:45So I had two of my biggest winters and fluster intraday. It's good that you're on the same day. Plus minus no. Then you came home there on the gatan. You didn't know anything. It's been a little I-bass here since the helgen. It's going to talk a little bit about. SBB comes with new people today. I handled a analytics-ret for the week. It went down 20%. We had a vote in Sweden. You have stood and camped in different votes. Opinions-buildat Jajamän Vi ska snacka lite råvaror Du hade någon take på att Antropic Ska lura alla, snacka lite IT-säkerhet Ja, det är mycket att prata om Det kommer ju lite AI-news Här i helgen Det finns massor att prata om kring det Vi ska prata om valet som du nämnde Och annat som har gått Har du gjort några vinstaffärer?
1:36Har du gjort några affärer? Omeks på botten idag, till 30 punkter Det var väldigt Bra intradastrade It has been September-mused and now we're up 1 ,5 % here on two hours. But we're going to go on the next episode.
1:54We have with us Robomarkets. Now when it's a little bit more in Sweden, so you have a lot of more of the people in the country. And if you want to sell out of the country, it's really the first election. And it just sprutes out new things in the USA. Igår handlade jag ett tungstensbolag, Elmet. It känns som om Sverige kommer 3 nyheter om dagen. There are 3000 nyheter om dagen. I USA, yeah. On the americans. And then you can handle via Robomarkets with your ISK and a value of your income. Slipping all the dyra growth. It's super smooth. Exactly. And then you can also hold a look at index-includering.
2:34For example, S &P 500. Those who are walking in and out. We tweeted a tweet. Bloom Energy Illumina och Everpure, de ska in i indexet och Olson Coors, alltså Coors Beverages Trade Desk, de åker ut till exempel. Sånt här kan man hålla koll på kan man göra affärer och då är det bra att ha ett ISK i dollarkonto. Ja men precis, och sen om man vill hålla koll på räntor och andra tillgångsslag så är det ju väldigt bra att använda TradingView som man får tillgång till via Robomarkets. So, if you have any konto, it's time to get it today. Thank you, Rob Markets. But remember, investing in your risk is not sure you'll get back your capital.
3:22Yes, let's start with a little of a real market. I'm talking about Asker, which is a series of sales in Medtech. It's like it just sprutas in different series of sales in the market. and it has been a very popular sector with the old Lagerkrantz and Adtech and these very stable pieces and now it has been many more on the market and here we had Asker who had a analytical for Carnegie he sat down the market from the sale and I saw the actuals and then it was 15 % and in the normal case a REAC, what can it be? 1-5, 6, 7 % maybe if it's a very volatile stock and here it was 15 % so I bought it and thought, here is someone who has tried to fail and then on a certain way it just came down, it was a lot of volume and the actuality was down 20 % on that the analytically said he talked about the book-saving it's often a lot of people are afraid for that they had forksyned the numbers nothing is not enough, but it looked better on the way they did on the way they did, and like and I came in on the weekend like this, singer for 1-2 hours and wine, buy this, go and come and buy and put a seller in a c-andline and sort 3-800 when using a banyak time, feeling okay and I thought I never do more But it must always be one here to still stay, but it's a slightly negative the result, we're excited about in September I think it's not any O yanl is no negative it doesn't require any and räddar dig.
5:03And these index funds they don't handle but they don't handle on a day. They don't hold on and they don't hold on a day. They don't come in and have a price of the price. Here it's just it's going to be a hedge fund or something like that. They see a rubric with a fifth in book-to-book. And so it's a a completely different and a half. Now it's the under-noteringspris that's going to be it's okay before. But I don't know what you want to ta med sig mer än att det är väldigt annorlunda att en analytiker kan få 20 % impact på känd information. Ja, men det är väl just formuleringarna, aktiveringar och sådana saker som gör att folk drar öron åt sig.
5:48Men det borde väl alla kunna mata in i klod numera? Det borde inte komma som någon nyhet. Nej, exakt. Men jag tror att när en analytiker lyfter fram det så blir man skraj. Vi har ju haft andra bolag där det är sådana aktiveringar som har sedan visat sig att sen går botten ur en aktie när det där sen ska reversera. Och så finns det liksom inte så mycket fundament av att luta sig mot. Nu... Askers fall... Alla de här fallen är olika, men den gemensamma nämnaren har ju varit att i många fall att man har utnyttjat aktiveringar eller kundfordringar. Du har bättre siffror än vad du har kassaflöden. Exakt.
6:26Och det är ju alltid läskigt när någon börjar nysta i den, dra i den tråden. and there I think that people have been with and everything else and then they take risk now it's not the same that it's the same thing all the aktiverings and kundfooding that you take up is not just the question is how much how much have you done and serieförvärvarnas ad should be that you have high multiple on the market you buy for less multiple on the market and some of these lagerkrans-lifkorms have been 20, 30, 40 times have been able to do a fantastic arbitrage exactly and if people are in and ask if they have the high multipel then it might not be like a good as a company either then it's even difficult to do a affair and then it's still and then suddenly the next story goes and then it goes fast exactly Exactly We can think that Some investerare have been with On other things In other companies And when they hear it We need to take a risk We sell a little And then we see ourselves Which you can get a little bit of Vem is the person Who didn't sell the day before But on the record Sends 20 % down When it's a hundred million You can get a little insider They've been to buy 20 000 There are many There are more around When they're going to buy When they're going to buy Yeah, but it's true And I think I think this has become A lot of people I saw that Ledningen has sold For over 100 million Kronor here For a few months But I think Bolet has been I 20 years And has IKEA Family As a big A huge So it's not Something they've Slängt ihop On 3 years And then Satt on the Börsen But they Köpte for 1 million now, they sold for Very large sum here for a few months And it can be skatter, it can be the one Bort for the other But we'll see if this will be a trend That analytiker have been a bit more And looked a bit more on book-to-book Then we have SBB It's very nice It's very nice for us who handle it Analytikerskåren They should not just be positive It was Carnegie who sat them on the market They should be much more in and nistar I book-to-book and so I think Then we have SBB, they're going to be able to solve their D-actie.
8:56Here it has been a little dream of a year to get these two kronor per year. D-actie has been around 5-8 kronor and then there was potential to get up to 15 spenn. It was probably more. It was more of other juridical technologies and what time they would pay back. and now it came to this has been a very bad deal the rents are going to take the fastsets and the akties have been the last year and the year has gone bad so it's not just SBB that has been done on the market and this has absolutely not been done because it has been a very bad deal SBBD and now it got a 45 % premium or something 7 ,97 % it's about to lose it it's a fast price but I'm sure it's about 7 ,97 % it's about to lose it it's about They need two-thirds of the one who owns both B and D.
9:51They go on the next M and R. Many are very angry. SBB says that through this can they can buy hybrid and then do a new purchase. That it has been a little bit like a lock. Which on the other side has been the actie-owners' hold. We are on the way. So long they don't have solved this so they have a problem. So now you can do a little bit of a knut. I bought a little SBB B which I still don't know what I'm going to do with it but the opening was high and went down D-actie is talking about 6 % for this and then I don't know if it's going to go or not but on a little longer way it would be good I think that someone wrote that D-actie on 30 cents or something so it's a real rug pull for everyone who has been with since the start to solve it on 7 ,94 or 97 so where they're facing and how the bransch looks like it it's not happy days so you can ask is this the best they could have been to or is it the worst Or pass on, now that everything is skadisk, and the owner is skadisk, they must be off with this.
11:14So, either they have a chance to get a scam or it is a good scam for that it is going to go through. And Aker and Ilja have in all the way B-actiers that they can vote for on the Stämman. So, there it will be a chance to get it. It doesn't get a chance to get a pair of pairs. Annars måste man ju ladda in rejält med prefaktier under tiden nu fram till stämman Det finns ju alltid hedgefonder som gillar att bråka och liknande Men ja, trist att det inte blev så bra som många drömde om Men det känns som att ointresset från att ha varit det mesta omtalade bolaget på börsen SPB är ju ingen som bryr sig längre Vissa skrev att det här var en plan för att de skulle gå ihop med Aker Property Group, APG That you just need to lose all the knut So it feels like They just take step for step For now it's a investment company Instead of a company So you can't do it But SBB is also going to 3 kronor So it has been a total catastrophe For all the owners It was probably 50-60 kronor When Visseroy Blanked loss And a certain pod When you look at the most of the most of the most of the world Yeah, when you didn't have so glad Then we have the big AI-news All the time I'm going to get into the helges From nowhere So He sent us Tropics He did It's like your Sub stack He wrote a long blog In the way Swam with swam Where conclusion Where the Conclusion was That he Case the frontier Yeah, man Ska bromsa up It's gone too fast It's been too fast We need to reglera I think Man has On a on a way, when all of them have raised, raised, raised and then from no place he says this and then Elon Musk says this and Sam Altman on OpenAI says this is good too it felt a little orchestrated Nadella also Microsoft and this means that the development will go long but especially they will make less capex it will be much cheaper for them to drive this if you don't have to fight Mot oändligheten Men som har en supermodell Att det ska gå så snabbt som möjligt Och därför gick ju Nibius och CoreWeave Alla AI-relaterade Som bygger på investeringar i AI Gick ner nu på måndag Precis, vi ser Munters gå ner i Sverige Ja, den har gått väldigt dålig innan Jag tycker att det här är superintressant Jag är lite Jag kollar lite på För en gång skulle du ha satt på foliehatten här Har du någon konspiration?
13:51Exakt, eller det är väl ingen konspiration Det är liksom bara såhär Man får ju också se hur den här branschen Det är många figurer i den här branschen Som var med år 2000 Och vet hur man håsar Och vet vad marknaden vill ha De är rätt cyniska De ser marknaden som en pengarkran Och det är dags Eller man måste passa på Vilka människor tänker du här på? Det är inte de här 22 -åriga AI-killerna Nej men Larry Ellison och Elon Musk Och alla de här, det är hela Paypal-maffian Och alla var med Larell Sen fick ju Sin beskärda del Av sleven efteråt För vad han hade gjort Under Och pumpat
14:32Pumpat Och alla siffror Stämde inte riktigt I den där pumpningen upp Men de fick ju in det Michael Saylor Var ju en annan Han fick ju Göra en deal För att inte krypa in i fängelse Och nu är de här igen Allihopa Och det är samma killar Som sitter och kör Samma tech killar but they see the capital market as a a requirement. And I think that they should not see it as that they have their best for the eyes. It's not that they're talking about. No. And it's not that all are talking about. And it's what I think that this and what Amodei wrote in the helvines says or says. For first, you know, you're talking about and you're talking about a billion.
15:16And then you come out ur forskningslabbet och säger we're all gonna die. Okej, men sluta då. Och nu så säger de att vi måste sakta ner av säkerhetsskäl, bla bla bla bla bla. Och det här kom ju lite efter den här, det var ju en ex han ställde på Antropic som sa att det var typ 10 % chans att vi skulle bli utplånade på jorden, så det känns som efterspel. Ja, han slutade för inte så länge sedan heller, så jag vet inte, det känns ju mer som att han har fått en påse pengar att gå ut och säga det här nu så att vi får den här... Sätt igång agenda här. Sätt igång det här narrativet nu. for that Antropic is going to be able to open AI and it's very easy to look at what it costs to do is to train up the new frontier models it costs multum and it's there it's the biggest thing to do in Antropic and Open AI it's when they need to train up the next model then there's something that they call inference and it's token and the same thing, when you use a model.
16:20And the time is there, it's where you pay money. And the time that you have to leave a model until next model comes, is just for short for that they should go plus and show you the best. And then it's good if you can say that you can make a difference on the new, modern, best models. so that the time you can get into the income and show you more money, the price of the money, the price of the money. The price of the money is less. Yes, exactly. The price of the money goes up for you to pay more time to pay. So, the price of the money is going to look better. And very much more than today, just before we were playing in, so came Antropic and said to their aktie-higare that they will in this quarter next quarter will also show positive numbers for the first time once oh, that's a good they will come to the market here now and now their guidance to the IPO when they say that they will say that they will see much better then I think that it takes one quarter that they are on the market and then they will again I was supposed to be a good We were going to wait for a month to the open AI.
17:40We talked about it before. You said that they were going to wait. It's like they have signed a pact here because they are positive. It can be something that is because it's a lot of money over all. Ingen will be able to get the ball in the course. It's called an oligopol. Yes, it's called a lot of korthus. But they are the biggest concurrent. I don't know if Tropic will be able to get the door back to the market. But if they say that they want to open up, they also want to come to the market. But then it's a rug pull. Then you gas the market again and then the cost goes up. And then you have got in your money.
18:21And then you have all the money in the market and you have to buy it. They must sell it. But if they come in on 2-3 million dollars and they go down 50 % then it's 1 trillion dollar. so you mean that it doesn't play a big role for the reason why they'll sell for the value. –Senary, down the line. I don't know if they... I think they understand themselves that they just want to save up their cash so that they're still there after it goes down. For it was it phenomenon under 2000 also. So that they took in money and so that they fluffed the numbers, it was just for them to come in and get the money so that they could survive in the winter or in the winter.
19:01I think that it looks a little bit It looks a little bit It looks a little bit It looks a little bit For otherwise you don't hold on with it What do they do They've just been trying to do all the time About that we all will die Or that we all will die Is 10 % But we continue What do It says itself That it's really weird And here is the difference With China That has their open source models That it feels like They have a little flose There from What do they do That they also And will China be able to It's been a commodity so the end way to win in a commodity is to scale what is the biggest and the biggest and it's also what they see if it's commoditized so it's not like much value to play a lot of money in the next model but it's better if you can take out the time between models so that you can get good and can pay of money.
20:00So it's more economic. Exactly. On the same topic they're talking about regulations. And it's also that OpenAI and Antropic will stäng the door behind them. They will create a regulator's wall. So they're on the other side of the wall. And all the others who start the new will get a much more way. Exactly. So yeah, it's a cynic. And another topic in AI here is a little IT-säkerhet. It's like it's coming new hackerskandaler all the time. It's like many profiles are hacked. Twitter, X-konto. It's like there's a mega trend that we've been talking about so long ago. It's like it's just bigger and bigger.
20:46Especially with these agents. If you take the vastest cloth and say that we're going to to reduce the oil in the community in Sweden. I don't know how well we're infrastructure-based now when AI you mean if you take it, you start off 10 000 agent yeah exactly, it's problem and it's what you talk about at the end of the time even if you put them on a stung then you want to come out to internet so they look extremely powerful yeah, exactly but then it's that open source models are not so long after so it's even harder to stop it for open source Elon Musk tweeted it or something open source It doesn't stop it.
21:29Just for it is open source. Then it's the crowdsoft and I think that Yubico who has done a real move on the market can be a form of a winnare. That all AI-agent are going to be much more with nycklar and security and like that. Every AI-agent has a own security. The one has a own cryptoplombok. There's a lot that goes to there for a lot to do it. Fullt fungerande AI-agent Ja Men det känns som hela IT-säkerhetstemat Att hitta något bra bolag där Med inriktning mot hackerattacker Eller skapa någon form av skyddsnät Det tror jag är extremt viktigt Vi hade ju Dustin här och det råkade ut för en jättestor Hackerattack, vi fick stänga Sajten tre dagar Nu var det någon som har läggt upp på Något full LinkedIn, det var flera hundra Terabyte, det känns som de hade fått med sig allt Därifrån so that and yeah many companies put on money on this but it seems to that you must put on much more so I think Apple a little with your safety and your safety I still I have never virus on my iPhone for was always virus on PC but it never got Mac data Exactly, it was for a short time.
22:55But still... Apple has always had personal safety and image and image. And they have taken it very long.
23:13Duotelefonen. Den ser jävligt cool ut. 30-40 000 kostar den. 26-27 but yeah 2TB I must be more than that but man waiting on which AI profilering should they take AI safety is a little uprogram and another AI-newness it was Google that would put 13 billion euro on AI infrastructure in Finland so much we haven't really seen in Sweden of these big jets yet and Nokia has been a real AI-winner and here it was a power plant that was a power plant or they would buy 50 % of the oil from a Fortum power plant through a 22-year deal and Fortum got up 10-15 % which is a lot of Fortum-actions and the whole Finland got a boost IET, a company called many around around so we'll see what happens here in Sweden It's been no AI-focus I valet It's hard to say Ska we go to the whole Norrland With billy el to the americans Data center yettten I don't know if people are so sure on that Had we had Kärnkraften kvar Had it been it Now we have a effect of a break Exactly Sverige has Suttit on Royal straight flush with hand but still not to play for the reason and if we talk about a little bit of råvar I've looked at a little bit of oil there it's very strong I think it's 107 and you can even follow the price on råoljepriset in Nordsjön and there we're up to 135 dollars if you come with your boat to Hamn so you're ready to pay for it because it's a brist on oil within the Mellanöstern and I think that the Nordsjö oil company AKRBP, DNO, Econor De här handlar extremt Lågt De går inte alls, golgen är upp 5 % någon dag De går upp 1 % eller i back Och idag golgar ner 2 % Då går de bolagen ner Så det är ett extremt negativt oljesentiment Det känns som att alla bara går och väntar på att Trump Ska ut på Truth Social Och säga att han har löst det Och där är vi inte riktigt än Gaspriserna är bekordhöga Vi ser ut att få superhöga Elpriser i vinter och gaspriser Ute i Europa It's not a high gas price It's not a bad thing for the USA No, but it would be a good thing The oil company But it's not a good thing But it's not a good thing And it's because of the oil company Is still quite investable for many So it's just a return to the oil company That's what makes it look like But it's going to be a better thing Even better in all of a sudden But then you have a super-life now It's still a good thing When you're doing these companies Over a week or a week So you're living for for that it should come something that...
26:14For that they react very negatively on a so-called fredsuppgörelse. Or that the Brentolian comes from 105-90. Then it's panic. It's hard to play there. It would be a good trade. It's not just about the Ormos-sunders anymore. Now has Saudi got problems with the Hotir-rebellion. It's a bit over all. Hotir-rebellion has done an offensive and a snub. Saudi has probably been a little bit taken on the table. So it's not going to be so easy for them. And diesel, that's record here. Ukraine bombed a lot of diesel locations in Ryssland, which Trump's on the golf course now when he was on the golf course on Irland.
26:52Now he came out and said that Ukraine has lovated that he didn't do it anymore. Exactly. So now I'm going to see it now. Now it's going to be a problem. So you want to get rid of oil here from. Framförallt inför Mellanårsvalet. It's not just for Trump and them in Mellanårsvalet. so you'll probably see a whole lot of different plays and... ...to the population. $5 ,000 would he have given to all invaders if he won the Mellonorsval. Yes, it didn't help the market. No. 1 ,2 trillion dollar would he try to get up over the night. Exactly. No one could do it in Norge also. If you lose the Mellonorsval it won't go to the budget.
27:34It will be a skuldtagsbrot all the time. And it's good for the market For the other big theme The next week AI and the rent The end that all have looked at In theory So it can't sell So much bonds If you don't have to No Then it's a Then it goes Räntorna down Exakt Then it goes Räntorna down And now with a AI-frosa Then you can buy A.I. bonds Instead Precis But AI-frosan Some are now The The The create also more capital over to the market. Or the stockpap. I've been in on that it's so much capital that requires from different ways. From the capital market and the market. That it's difficult to make the market around.
28:26And when Meta pays 8 % on their bonds it's clear that it's a concur with 20-year-old americans statspapper but now with a little AI-fros and maybe a little bit of a bit of a now I think he will be a little bit of a little bit of a but to say that between-of-the-art-val it's like a hell of a so they can't they must be able to after it all the way after a mat so then it's a little bit of a little bit of a because of it also and then it's a new budget after the market so it can be interesting then you come down to the market or if the market goes down you bought a TLT, how have it gone with the last week they have continued to go up I'm going to go back but so much have not gone up and I wonder if it's not peak fair for the market that they should go down it's 5 % with a little AI-frosa now and some things.
29:29Pensionsfonds, the big capital allocation is still going to see if it's going to blow a little now and the money will see a little bit. It's coming down a little bit. 5 % is quite a bit. Is it a little different than the money? Is it going to be something else? Or is it going to happen? It's going to be a intervening? I think I said it for a minute. Becent can bestow for it. I don't want to buy my bonds. cross your actions and see where they want to be. It will be so to the end. So, down the road will be able to buy the rentepapper. It's twofold. If AI also becomes fantastic, it doesn't become a rent for us, but if productivity takes part and inflation comes down, then it becomes interesting.
30:19It's been several different scenarios where the rent can be able to come down. and many of the area それ Callers is oil and this inflation so if it prevent this it's losing to pay we all would have no no for I don't know I'm not saying it's so I don't know about odds or issued stream because if it has been a problem then the rest is a false on our long readiness I svenska longräntan går det upp jättemycket. Det är försvarsinvesteringar, det amerikanska räntor med mera. Men ränteuppgången är inte alltid dåligt. Det är om du sitter på mycket lån. Sveriges statsskulder är inte så hög. Vi ska ju höja nu Riksbanken mest i världen.
31:12Det var väl det i den här valrörelsen. Varje gång den frågan kom upp så blir man irriterad. Det är någon issue i Sverige, statsskulden. and I started to talk about how we should finance it finance it with a loan and then we take it then and now I'm going to the worst sløs here but you don't have a coupon card in every question in every question as a state and you can have a growth mindset as a individual you can also have a positive thing but you can invest in your income in yourself it depends on what you invest in if you want to invest in inte bra. Låna för investeringar och investeringar i försvaret är investeringar och det får bieffekter och man bygger andra saker, det är underleverantörer och det liksom, det byggs saker, vi får saker för dem och om det visar sig att vi inte behöver massa det ska ju byggas massa fastigheter i försvaret och allting, de kan användas till andra saker.
32:08Sen tror jag att det bakas in, jag hoppas och tror att det i Sverige att det bakas in massa andra saker som är liksom that you can say national security in the future and that's what we're doing and we're doing and building infrastructure so that we can actually use the resources we have in Norrland we're a very small country of 10 million people we're a European region of the country on a country like Tyskland so many of our problems are self-revolved but it led us into the election yes it became very gentle I USA also It can be 250 million in the 10 And still it 50-50 Exactly, I think people Målar ut this result On both sides I think even the other side Målar ut this as a full-time katastrof I understand it if you're politically active But it doesn't look like That it will be some gal Budget Ingen communist budget
33:14you have centerpartiet that I mean it looks like it can be a borgerly budget that the sosses are on but all the votes are not counted in the morning come out of the country for the time I think we got a mandat or the side of the side and then it doesn't require it requires that one centerpartist when they vote in the rickstown that it's not that I'm not going to go to the other side and then it goes not to go. It's quite a bit weird. Yeah, so that opinions and the research so out, so you must be able to be able to be able to do it with it. Even so long. Then we'll see what happens. I think it's a spännable place.
33:57I think it was cool to follow up on Polymarket. They had 25 % on Christersons minister. Then it went to 10 % up to 25 % and now it's on 10%. 10-1. When you look at the vote, it was more 50-50. It was not before. Exactly. I thought we talked about it yesterday. I wonder if Christersson is still there. So it might not be Christersson, but it might be Strömmen instead if he takes over. It's not that he has said anything. But what I heard is that Christersson doesn't continue as partiled. He would have gone if it went bad. Now it was good. It was good. So it's not been like Palatskuppen. Exactly. So I don't know.
34:41It's still a lot of things. Then you see what it is. Centern has put out a hand to Sossana. Stängt dörren till M. I see it as a tactic. It was it they went to the election. So they must have to do it. Those possibilities. And then we see if it goes. With Vänstern and Miljöpartiet. If it doesn't exist, it's always the old alliance. The parties on the other side. They won't say no for three weeks ago. We don't talk about it. Centern has... I think it's the road they plan to go around and see what they can find. It's a very good place for Centern. They must have been a long time. It's both a good time and a good time.
35:29Yes, they feel like their best. best. I don't know if they are more than or what they are, or if they are in the or are any kind of crypto-communist in disguise. But if you look at how the center has been historically, they were like, they went up with the 90-tall, Mod Olofsson, they had an alliance, and then Annie Lööf and had up his school. So they have done so many and the other side of the left, fram och tillbaks hela tiden. För att i alla fall politiskt hålla en mitten fåra. Och tittar man på börsgrejerna här så... Typ sen 2006 har ju Sverige regerat på en borgerlig budget. Så Stefan Löfven gjorde det.
36:20Hade inte majoritet i riksdagen. Maggan inte heller. Så vi får se helt enkelt. I think that many are like many have already declared this election already then we see the government it's four rounds since the new election who wins the new election I think the center because they have the most money they have the most they have the most they have the most they have the most of the time exactly so we will see I think even that it is brotts from a safe safe it was a drönar incident in Litauen igår what drönar incident on the tåget to Ukraine Carl Bildt. Ja, som var på väg till Polen. Eller det var ett tåg bakom Carl Bildt.
37:02Och i München var det några sprängladdningar och lite annat som man hittat. Ryssarna passar på. Ja, exakt. Lite så. Så det kommer också att göra att det här kommer att gå snabbare än vad det var. Det var ju där när det gick hur många dagar som helst. Det gick ju månader. Långfikan skulle bli kortare nu. I don't think we'll see a long one because it's more urgent now to get to someone who can sit and regerate. And if you look at the price of the company, the bank and the school companies. All of them went very well because they felt like it didn't get any galen. Then, when I got home, came to the center to give up the money from the school.
37:51So, then Academedia went from 4 % up to 2 % down. So it went down to 6 % Today it's flat So it's still a bit like it's Lugnet and you don't think it's going to happen It's like bankers And so Bankers have not been able to get so much So it's like It's a little non-issue It's no one who's going to be on the market Än so long Kronan was going to be I don't know if it's going to be Why I think no one's going to be Because Valet var super-jämnt Men jag tycker att det här Det här valet absolut sa Det första man ser Är ju liksom att Sverige Svenska väljarna har ju Klart och tydligt valt Att de vill ha Borgerlig ekonomisk politik Och inga galenskaper Alltså ekonomiskt Och då tuffar ju börsen vidare Och då blir det ju svårt to think that it will come the sjukest things for example from the end of the end that it will be infill and it is off the table and all the way to index it is a bit of a time for 3 hours then it will be up reels what do you think about index what do you think about September we have Fed now that will be a bit of a stature Fed will come with a besked in the morning It's about 90 % 90 % inprisade It's not you For two weeks I'm not sure you've seen it I haven't seen it yet I'm not sure why Kevin Ward Would do it Based on what he said He's going to get a real outskilling of Trump It's fattable It's two inprisade I year And then we have Mellanvalsåret Mitt i allt Så jag ser inte riktigt Kevin Wars, den nya centralbankschefen Han har ju också sagt att han Har tillsatt sin arbetsgrupp Som ska se över allting och vilka mått De ska titta på och räkna om Sättet det räknas på De är inte klara för november, december Så han ska alltså Agera i blindo då På den här Det känns som bara på grund av sentiment För inflationssiffran som kom Den kom i fredags Den var ju lite Varm Nej, den var inline Egentligen Det fanns några lite Och ändå gick väl sannolikheten upp mycket på att det skulle bli en hel länge Men det var ju för att inflationen inte föll Utan den liksom var still Jag tycker väl lite att marknaden pushar Kevin Walsh in i att han måste höja Narrativet blir så Så medialt har man pushat honom Samtidigt som han has constated that he doesn't want to do forward guidance.
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40:46Forward guidance is that Fed doesn't want to guide and tell so that the market knows what they want to do. And then it's like 90 %... Openheartedly, the market verks exactly what they want to do. It's better on Polymarket or less than that? Exactly! So I wonder if the market is still in the way before he took over Fed. We'll see. I'm sure I'm sure he's going to be on the way. He'll probably be on the way. but then he's just 0 ,25 and says this is it and then he's in a pause so I don't know if he's not a big deal he's just saying he's the first on four then he's just then he's just it's not cool and it's always so he can't say so before the election he's just saying one and done and now we'll see what my work group says in November but it's still I would say it's a weird I have a hard time att köpa att han verkligen måste höja 0 ,25.
41:43Men alla andra säger det. Jag tycker ofta att det rör sig på ett sätt på Fed-kvällen där i USA och sen tycker jag man får en helt annan rörelse dagen efter sen i Europa och sen kommer en USA-rörelse. Så har det liksom gått upp i USA då kan det bli ner jättemycket dagen efter eller att rörelsen förstärks. Men jag tycker inte man ska ta den här kvällsrörelsen så mycket utan mer hur det har rört sig kommande 24 timmar på Indic. Sen han kanske höjer för räntemarknaden says that he would do it. So they don't want to do it there. So it can be it. Then we Bank of Japan on Friday. And it's very interesting when Bessent has got into their market.
42:25Forth week he said that he was in the house. He was in the house in the market. So don't let him do it. Because it's always been in the house. So it is. Is it that you are in terms of the market? No But I the aspect of Bank of Japan is very interesting It's always a little interesting Because of carry trade Which is the biggest trade Or the position that it is on But it's even more now when Bessent has been intervened So it's a little bit more It's a little bit more on Friday And it's a good one And it's a quarter-losing on Friday So the market this week I longed OMX today when we were down quite a lot.
43:10For some of the reasons can trend, others can be quite mean reverting. So when OMX was down quite a lot today, I thought it was worth playing at it mean reverting. All right, so we're back to the whole world. And that's what we did. It was a good thing. It was a good thing. Are you still there? No, the one I have taken a lot of interest on. So, the lösen week, sometimes it's very interesting things to do if you have a little understanding about what it should go. September-losen is always very big. It's many positions, it's very much that has been moved in the third quarter. And then it's very many options that you can do it and it's very big.
44:02So it's very much of the time and back. It's not a real direction It's not a sense It's a very options type And then it can be a mean reverting At the end of the day You can go to the point So that the ball goes up And then you can go to the other point And it's a lot of balance So it can look like a lot of brus But on the whole When you look at the day after It's not a lot But it can be a ball And it was it I played on today And I thought it was going to be so In the next week But when the solution is done Then it can be done Massa drift So sometimes it's so Sometimes it's the solution Where it goes to a halt Or after the solution And now it's September After the solution It might be a little bit For the oil and the market And if the Fed does something You might get the effect next week We'll see But it's not something I bett on But I'm ready for it If it happens Yes Then we have the full or kill.
45:06I have to say that fillen was the USA-handel. I handled a little bit of new things. I handled Octave. I was still a lot of fun that the one is double-notated. The one is still between 150 and 190. The one is coming up much. When it comes to AIBS, it goes SaaS up. So I bought a lot of Octave here to the USA-opening. And then it comes up the whole day. So it was fantastic. The kill was Astra, who came with a bad study on Friday. I was long Astra until Friday, I stopped the study. Then I came with a bad study on Friday and I felt like, yes, I missed the next day. Then I opened Astra on Monday. Then I was korting Astra because I thought, where did I come with the bad study?
45:50And then it was the biggest biotech-up in a year in the whole of the industry. Astra trended up about 4 % all day. and it became one of my biggest interdags - any time. It's a so-called Sigma-9 event which one of the famous fonds - that one said that. Cool at the end of the end of the end. What are you for PhiloKills? It's very clear and it's very much fear-mongering in the market, even my kill. It's the market, the oil market and the yen. And Besant will be the three markets when he's going to manipulate it. It's a little bit. In September, it makes me feel that I'm quite sure. Fill in the way that it's in such a way like today, for example.
46:42You take a percent of X and it's in and it's out. It's like there you can be. Then it starts to happen some of the things we've done about robot companies. CCXI talked about My name is coming in here. The one has come up very much. From that they announced that they would take in Agility Graph on the Burship. The one is on 12 now. In the end of the race is 10-golvet. In a bass here in September, if it's a little volatile next week or something, then it's super interesting. It's all about risk-willing in the market under September. It's coming up very much. Yes, it's like many people are sitting and...
47:23Yes! You can contact us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, phylloquillpodden1gmail.com We want to thank you for in my media and our here at the clip. I'm a disclaimer, I'm a SBB just now. I don't know if I'm a guy when I'm a guy when I'm a guy. Annars I'm not a guy with it we've talked about. Have we mentioned something about what you're talking about? CCXI, you're not. No, I'm not. I don't think we've come in on something. We're going to talk about råvaror next week I think it can be a little A little bit more variant Of the year Yeah, nice In fact, no oil company for what we're talking about No Over and out, we'll see you next week But come back all we talked about Here we are in our own thoughts And we'll see it as a underhållning and inspiration It's absolutely not a financial aid Just what is it that you want to do We want to be free We want to be free to do what we want to do and we want to get loaded and we want to have a good time and that's what we're going to do we're going to have a good time we're going to have a party
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Dagens ämnen:
0:00 Intro
3:22 Asker
8:53 SBB
12:30 A.I
20:25 It-säkerhet
23:41 Google
24:49 Oljan, räntan m.m.
32:40 Valet
39:00 Index
45:06 Veckans Fill or Kill
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