Elon’s ROI: $458 Million Didn’t Buy Much In The Midterms

0:00Dan Bigman: This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed Sponsored Jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Get a$75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Today on Forbes, Elon's ROI,$458 million, didn't buy much in the midterms. Elon Musk's pinned tweet that was up until late Tuesday night, sums up his thoughts succinctly.

0:46If Democrats won the midterms and then the presidency in 2028, it would be, quote, the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word. In his telling, Democrats would abolish the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court, expand the Senate, and institute open borders, all policies that he claims would lock Republicans out of power forever. In the waning days of the campaign, the richest man in the world put his money where his mouth was, flooding races across the country with at least$458 million, according to federal election commission filings and other reporting. That's far more than any other donor, and at least three times as much as the billionaire E-line couple in second place, per New York Times estimates.

1:34And those hundreds of millions of dollars didn't buy him much. Forbes set out to track where Musk's money went and what races it may have impacted. A review of campaign finance records and other reporting found at least 10 political groups Musk gave directly to, either in his own name or through related entities. Then, Forbes examined spending records through November 2nd to determine which candidates' campaigns those groups spent to support. Musk also gave directly to 23 candidates' campaigns. The results form a sort of report card on Musk's spending. Candidates in 106 House and Senate races had Musk's support behind them.

2:18As of about 2.30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, 18 had won. All in seats Republicans were expected to win anyway. Another 44 had lost, and 44 races had still not been called at that time. In general, many races were flooded with money this year. It was reportedly the most expensive election cycle ever. And just because Musk gave to a group that spent money in a race doesn't mean Musk's money made the difference in that race. But the results indicate that his ROI on$458 million was not exactly high, raising questions about just how much money matters in a wave environment. Overwhelmingly, the biggest beneficiary of Musk's largesse was scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose race against state Senator James Tallarico became this cycle's marquee Senate matchup.

3:11Here's the breakdown. Musk gave$75 million to the main GOP Senate Super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, or SLF, on September 9. He sent them another$83 million on September 23, a total of$158 million. Each time, SLF transferred matching amounts to another Super PAC called Texas PAC, which was backing Paxton to the hilt. America PAC, Musk's own political operation, spent another$47 million in the race. And a third PAC, called Lone Star Liberty PAC, which had received a$10 million donation from him in August, backed Paxton II. That's a total of$215 million from Musk flooding ads and door knockers into Texas.

3:59It seemed personal. Musk, the father of a transgender woman, posted on X two days before the election,

4:10And it all came to naught. Tallarico swept to a double-digit victory on Tuesday night, the first Democrat since 1988 to win a Senate race in Texas. He led a Democratic slate that also captured the Texas governor's mansion and may even take the state legislature. In Tallarico's victory speech, the senator-elect said,

4:54Musk, after nine hours of uncharacteristic silence on X, finally posted on his platform early Wednesday morning. He wrote, quote, data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now. AmericaPAC, entirely funded by$216 million from Musk, spent in at least 44 races all over the country. After Texas, its biggest money holes, per FEC filings, were shoring up Republican Senate candidates in Ohio, 9.7 million dollars spent, Michigan 9.2 million dollars spent, Iowa 3.3 million dollars spent, and Maine 2.3 million dollars spent. Democrats won all four races Tuesday night. For full coverage and to see the list of results from the races Musk-backed groups spend in, check out Kyle Kahn Mullins' piece on Forbes.com.

5:50This is Kieran Meadows from Forbes, Thanks for tuning in.