Is The Iran War 'Effectively Over' As Trump Claims?

0:02Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me once again is Benham Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the FDD's Iran program. Benham, thanks so much for coming back on. Thank you. Great to be with you, Brittany. As the war against Iran has continued over the last eight months, you've come on time and time again to provide status updates of where things stand in the conflict, both diplomatically and militarily. And I want to talk about where we are in this moment, because last week, both President Trump as well as Vice President Vance has said that the war is at least partly to blame for Republicans getting absolutely battered in the midterm elections.

0:39Since then, President Trump has indicated on 60 Minutes that he doesn't see the need to resume strikes against Iran. And this week, he said the war he believes is militarily effectively over. So to start off the conversation, how do you view where things stand right now in the conflict? Well, to be brutally honest, I don't think things have changed that much. You know, my personal recommendation to the president, given all that remains on the table, is to hold your fire, but to also hold the line. And the reason I say that is because the status of no deal or no war or no peace or no war with the Islamic Republic is a somewhat familiar status.

1:18It's really the contest that's defined the U.S. and Iran for quite some time. And in that context, the Islamic Republic has a lot more to lose, particularly when the core elements of U.S. policy against the Islamic Republic, at least under President Trump, are things like maximum pressure sanctions. And as you know now, the maritime blockade. And then this more recent task force that was just announced, which targets overland and regional and Caspian sea trade. So quite literally, the president is boxing in and shutting down the Islamic Republic, which sharpens the choice that the regime has. And I say, especially given reference to the midterms, but really even strategically before that, make the Islamic Republic make a mistake.

2:00Make the Islamic Republic have to choose between bad and worse. And make the Islamic Republic have to own or have the burden of engagement or escalation be around their neck rather than that of the United States. So I think the U.S. is in a pretty good position here. I think it's a familiar position as well where sanctions are continuing, military assets are in the region, and U.S. regional partners are mediating and moderating. So all of this is familiar. But what is changing, of course, is inside Iran. The economic resources available to the regime, the tight kind of course but also brittle political circle that exists around the Supreme Leader and the IRGC and the Supreme National Security Council.

2:41And for them, it's not going to be a static situation as much as it may look like the status quo for America. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he said at a G7 meeting on Tuesday that the economic campaign that the United States has employed against Iran has been so effective that he doesn't foresee the need to resume any major combat operation. However, when it comes to Iran, a top Iranian security official said that, hey, we're not engaged in talks with the United States right now. And he said that the regime will not allow any of its enriched nuclear material to be removed. What do you make of what Iran is at least saying and forecasting publicly?

3:22Well, I think that that statement is also fairly consistent with what we've seen and heard from the Islamic Republic for quite a while now. They are looking for a U.S. surrender at the negotiating table. They're looking for a U.S. submission. They're looking for a U.S. retreat. And they're even looking for U.S. reparations after being attacked not once but twice in the past nine months from the U.S. and from Israel. And so I don't find that Iranian position shocking. You see what they're doing at home. They're trying as best as they can to rebuild much of their tattered defense industry and rebuild more drones and missiles.

3:59Obviously, that is now with a significant delay. But the Islamic Republic hasn't been talking directly to America for a while. In this sense, there's been a lot of regional moderation and mediation, and I expect that to continue. But if that is the ultimate red line, that the Islamic Republic will not unearth and ship out all of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, then I think that really does provide a much shorter runway for diplomacy. And that means that the other elements of trump's iran policy be they sanctions and containment and military pressures are likely to come into the fore again and that doesn't mean the u.s needs to rush into military conflict but it does need to know that it needs to constrain the resources available to the regime and in that constraining uh to limit the damage that this regime can do if it's not going to be fliant at the negotiating table in that may be the beginnings of the crisis or a diplomatic opportunity.

4:54But if we're being realistic here, I really think it's just management of the crisis. We are exactly a week from when America and the rest of the world woke up to those midterm results and they weren't very good for Republicans, right? The election was viewed as a referendum on President Trump. Like I said at the top, both he and Vice President J.D. Vance, J.D. Vance in more stark terms blamed the defeat on the war against Iran. And I'm curious, Do you think the results from the election last week, do you think that is changing President Trump's policy or outlook when it comes to Iran at all? You know, it's funny.

5:33The Islamic Republic, at least in its elite podcast and commentary space, thought that it would or could. And you saw in the newspapers and in the press, really, in the week or so following the change in the House and the Senate and the victory of the Democrats there, that there's still an opportunity, that the Islamic Republic was the one claiming victory here. But ultimately, I think the president has stayed in the course. You know, he's told the public not once, but several times since the elections, that if he had to do it again, he would do it again. And in fact, this resoluteness has kind of been transferred over into the Iranian political scene, where they are talking about the fears of what Trump might do in a lame duck session, whether that's more economically escalatory or military escalatory.

6:20That remains to be seen. But I think one thing is absolutely certain here is that regardless of the composition of the House and the Senate, that the Islamic Republic's enmity with America is not just bipartisan, but nonpartisan. And that's something that despite the victory lap, Iranian politicians and military officials and religious officials and talking heads and media personalities have been saying, which is that, you know, Iran won the midterm elections last week. Ultimately, the Supreme Leader, the son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mushta Bhamenei, basically said that the enmity with America is ongoing and regardless of who is at the helm in Washington.

7:03And this is something that Democrats who will enter the House and the Senate on January 3rd will need to take to heart, that it's one thing to contest the White House. It's another thing to contest the White House in a manner that will only redound to the dividend of a strategic adversary of the United States of America. And that's the Islamic Republic. To that point, in two months, Democrats will control the House. They will control the Senate as well. Do you foresee that switch in power there, that flip changing the outlook or the way this conflict looks going forward? Let's say it's not fully resolved in a tight little bow in two months.

7:44I do think actually that there is more that New Democratic Congress could do to help than to hurt. And the question is, will they want to do that? Obviously, there's political red meat when it comes to impeachment and investigations and hearings. But the real important function that the Congress can play is oversight. You know, help the American citizen, help the American taxpayer understand the relationship between means and ends and press the administration, press CENTCOM, press the Pentagon for clarifying the end state, for giving metrics, for being direct and upfront about the costs. A real exercise of the oversight function, particularly through hearings, could go a very, very long way, be a boon to the American citizenry, as well as really hold the line for the things that many democratic elites hold dear.

8:32I'll give you a couple of examples. A lot of people are talking about the lack of oversight. In the past two years, there have really only been three direct hearings about Iran policy. Yours truly had the pleasure of partaking in at least one of them. But three is way too few, given how much Iran has dominated the news. Next, of course, is investigations. Investigations should be conducted and released, particularly ones that relate to the strike against those girls' schools in Minab and Lamer at the beginning of the 40-day war. And we need to make sure what kind of guardrails are in place to make sure that kind of stuff doesn't happen again.

9:11This is where a political change in the helm can actually help the United States. And also, lastly, I would say there's been bill after bill introduced about trying to find ways to support via telecommunications and VPNs and satellite internet, Iranian citizens gain access to the internet. And despite these things having bipartisan, bicameral support, they languish in the House and in the Senate and are not included year after year into the must-pass bills like the National Defense Authorization Act. So it will really be a test for the new Democratic Congress. Do they want to do something to help to act on the values that they've espoused we're on the campaign trail or is this going to be political theater and red meat for the next two years in which case neither the right will win nor the left will win the islamic republic will win what about a leadership shake-up at the pentagon because people are not happy with secretary hegseth right about now president trump he's admitted that he's received calls about his leadership and he says i don't know why people are so unhappy with him but he's indicated to The reporter said he has no intention of getting rid of him.

10:19And he said he did survive in a move to impeach him. House Republicans did block that measure. And he held his first press briefing on the war since May. And he said that all of the military actions he's overseen in his tenure, including the ones in Iran, have come from the president and they have been lawful. Do you think we are going to see him out come January, come even before that or at all? And do you think he will change his leadership tactics or him being out? If that does happen, that would change the dynamic of this war. Well, I'm not sure exactly what would change the dynamic of the war, because, again, it takes two to tango.

11:01And so much of the dynamics of this conflict, and unfortunately, this is often forgotten in Washington, are not dictated by CENTCOM or the Pentagon or the White House or the Congress or the media or the policymaking community, but the adversary. And we have to remember, as former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis used to say, the adversary gets a vote and it takes two to tango. And it's important that wherever you sit in this political drama about how the war was conducted and what will happen next, we remember that we can only at most control half of this situation. But looking very specifically at the Hegseth case now, he did survive that impeachment attempt.

11:38But if I recall the vote count somewhat narrowly, and I don't think this will be the last attempt by Democrats for some kind of push for accountability at the Pentagon. I don't know what will happen with the Republican minority after the new Congress. But suffice to say, I think, you know, the top leadership of the Pentagon is still going to be very much in the target set for those new and incoming Democrats, particularly those that rode the anti-war wave. We're Forbes. We love talking money. And I'm curious, I saw this price tag. I saw a huge number this morning, and I want to get your take on it, because according to an insurance company, they are estimating that this war is costing Iran's neighbors in the Gulf Coast more than$200 billion in damages.

12:26Huge price tag. I'm curious, do you think money's going to talk here? Because President Trump had a meeting earlier this week with the Qatari prime minister. Do you think, because they're seeing that number, that's a lot of zeros, that's a lot of commas, They're going to say, hey, hey, hey, we really need this to stop. We need the United States and Iran to reach an agreement. Do you think that will be a push, a bigger push for negotiations? I absolutely believe that many US partners, particularly on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf, which as you know, many of them are major energy exporters, but they're major commerce and trade and tourism hubs as well in the world.

13:02know that if there's another outbreak of fighting between America and the Islamic Republic or Israel and the Islamic Republic, that the battlefield or the likely response domain for the regime is going to be critical infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and U.S. diplomatic and military facilities across the GCC countries and in the CENTCOM area of operation. So it's no surprise to me that countries that have really lost out economically like this, And I'm thinking Qatar right now, which, as you know, for many months had a rolling force majeure for its gas, its ability to export gas.

13:37That was magnified by the fact that unlike Saudi Arabia and unlike the UAE, for example, there was no pipeline workaround to when the Islamic Republic had, quote unquote, shut the Strait of Hormuz in mind, the narrow waterway there. So I'm not at all shocked that countries that sustain major damages to critical infrastructure and civilian infrastructure don't want another round of fighting. But what we need to zoom out and realize is that if the Islamic Republic is willing to do this kind of stuff and engage in this coercion and bullying and harassment that comes with the reported price tag you mentioned, just imagine what they would do if they were strong, if they were permitted to build back, if they were permitted to trade and exploit markets that they're now restricted or prohibited from accessing, and to be able to, again, pose a major global threat, which, by the way, is what got many of those countries in the region on our side in the first place, because they feared a rising and predatory and irredentist and revisionist Islamic Republic.

14:36I'm curious what you're looking out for next, because you're saying what we're seeing is more of the same. There hasn't been too many changes. President Trump has said we're trying to keep its status quo. He said this week that he thinks the war is going to end fairly soon. He's been saying that, though, for months. So I'm curious, what should we be looking out for next? I think you should be looking out for, one, a potential resumption of hostilities, to who blinks first. And I mean that diplomatically, you know, whose hand is watered down, whose negotiating position is watered down, you know, meaning is it the Islamic Republic's with its stance on Hormuz and uranium, or is it the United States of America when it comes to things like no enrichment and the return of IEA inspectors?

15:19Who budges first diplomatically in the time and the space that the administration, it seems like, has continued to give regional mediators to try to find some sort of solution. Also look for, you know, the continued flow of US assets and resources into the region. Four, look for the Islamic Republic to continue to engage in some kind of digital deterrence and cyber deterrence with more cyber attacks. We saw what happened with the French government and the Germans echoing this as well about the Islamic Republic's attacks on refrigeration units and doing so many euros worth of damage to France. We see what the Islamic Republic, I think, has done now for a second time with threats against air bases in the United Kingdom, which is quite far away, where the US does station cargo planes and aerial refuelers and bombers.

16:10So suffice to say how the regime tries to punch back outside of the CENTCOM area of operations. And then lastly, what is going on internally? the cost of living in the Islamic Republic, the political and economic pressure the regime is going to be under as they face a budgetary crisis with the walls coming in on them, with the retention of max pressure sanctions, the blockade, and now the attempt by the administration to go after overland trade and regional trade. Well, we certainly have a lot to look out for next. And I appreciate you always jumping on to provide these updates. Benham, thank you so much for the time.

16:44I hope to talk soon. Thank you so much, Brittany. Always a pleasure. Thank you.