Aus Open Day 12 - Rybakina vs. Sabalenka showdown set

0:10Hello and welcome to the tennis podcast on women's semifinals night at the Australian Open, a night that has seen Elena Rabakina and Irina Sabalenka set up a meeting in Saturday's final. It is moments before midnight and you find us in Garden Square. It's a gorgeous evening and we're in the aftermath of the session that has tended to most reliably deliver drama at a Grand Slam over the years, the back-to-back women's semifinals. But of course, this is the Dodd Slam. So what we got was two straight setters, but that doesn't tell the whole story because a match accidentally broke out on the Rod Laver Arena earlier on tonight.

0:57Unfortunately, not for long enough to give us a deciding set, but we are feeding off crumbs at this point in the tournament. And Jessica Bagula, David, definitely gave us a little snack with her second set comeback against Elena Rabakina. Yeah, but it really whetted the appetite for more, didn't it? And I was really enjoying her comeback. I loved the way she played against Romando Nisimovi yesterday. I think that's one of the best performances I've seen from her yesterday. I think we had others when she's mounted comebacks against Sabalenka, say, at the US Open, things like that, where she just steps up to probably a more talked-about opponent, who we assume has a bigger game, and that was the case today, and then retaliates.

1:42And I love watching her retaliate against players and use her movement and use those snapping ground strokes that sort of take the opponent by surprise. But it took such a long time for that to happen today against Rabacchner. She didn't leave it quite too late because she managed to make a fight to that second set. She had two set points, but she didn't take them. And you've got to give enormous credit for Rabacchner for kind of, I guess, choking or at least losing a forehand, but getting it back and winning anyway. It feels like we've had something absolutely delicious dangled in front of us tonight and then just whipped away at the last moment.

2:22It's like we've been given a few Pringles, but not the tub. And you want to just demolish the lot. Yeah, because we've been so starved. For half an hour there, it was awesome. And that's how tennis can be. We felt alive. Yeah, I felt tension. I didn't know I could feel tension anymore. after the last few days. And it was a real joy there for half an hour or so. And I do think what tonight's semifinals have done is, you know, ramped up the excitement for the final as well. You know, like we know that they can play good matches against each other. We've seen one on this court. So it has done that thing that the tournament has done all the way, which has been ever so slightly disappointing tonight, you know, in terms of as a whole, in terms of what women's semifinal night can be.

3:17But... Good things are coming. Made you think, oh, good things are coming. Like, there's just a constant tease and waiting for the good thing to come this tournament. But I did enjoy Pagula's resistance in that second set. And actually what I enjoyed about it was, like, knowing those two players. We'd seen last summer Rabatkaner lose a string of matches from having match points. and we'd seen Pagula post-US Open get involved in these absolutely crazy matches where set points and match points were coming and going. And it felt like that context was here in this match tonight. And the Rabatkinner game, which had been so brilliant for most of this match, in the night conditions, I think Pagula hadn't played in the night all tournament.

4:06I think she found that adjustment difficult, whereas Rabatkinah was just hitting through the court in such an effective way. But as David said, there was time for Pagula to find something and she did and she pressured Rabatkinah and the Rabatkinah forehand fell apart and then we were into a real situation of jeopardy and I enjoyed it. It was awesome from Rabatkinah tonight though, wasn't it? Apart from that spell when the forehand deserted her, a disaster class Matt called it on one of our WhatsApp groups um bloody hell she was good yeah so good and like you do see the difference that the serve can make you know compared to for example when this I'm over yesterday for for Pagula like there were there were little times where Pagula would get involved in a service game and Barakuna would just slam the door with a big serve.

5:09And yeah, her hitting was brilliant from the start, really. I thought Pagula was a little sluggish early on in a way that she just hadn't been against Anissa Mova. She was so sharp from the start of that match. Whereas this did take her a bit more time. I do think it might have been an adjustment to the conditions. But yeah, Rabatkin was so good. I think the frustration will be for Pagula that twice she broke back in the second set and then immediately got broken again. It felt like she was never able to break back and then hold and then really establish herself in the set. She was always kind of playing catch-up in it.

5:47Now, it has to be said, Rebac can have played great games when Pagula did break back. Rebac can have responded very well, but it did just feel like there was a little bit of frailty there that Pagula did a good job of trying to exploit but just couldn't quite fully. And, you know, I think Pagula will rue a couple of missed forehands of her own in that tie break in the middle portion of it. And then a really curious decision to roll in the first serve on her first set point. Like, I don't quite know why she did that. Just rolled it into the Rebac in the backhand. but other than that I think I think you know you can't have too many regrets because of how good Rebecca was as a whole in this match and she's very good at processing this stuff isn't she Pagula is as disappointed as I'm sure she is and I think perhaps the disappointment will be added to by the feeling that had she managed to get one of those set points Pagula she would have felt like the favourite to me in the third in the third set just because of how, well, the fact that Rabachner had had the three match points and failed to convert and that frailty that was there to be tapped into, she could have just really stamped down on that.

7:09I would have backed Pagula, I think, going into the third set. It's so tantalising. Yeah. She'd have had to have a major reset because that forehand had gone for a while. She couldn't trust what was coming off the strings and she was repeatedly overhitting. And actually, I think maybe one of the regrets that Pegula will have is that unlike yesterday when it seemed she was so set on attacking the Anisimova forehand, as good as that shot is at times, she just went at it and broke it down, really, or broke the baseline game down in totality. Whereas today, I didn't feel that that was happening in the first set.

7:49but I also think that's probably because she wasn't trusting her own game she didn't feel as good as she did yesterday there can be lots of reasons why you don't feel as good and I think a lot of it is because Rabakina just was hitting so cleanly so many rallies where Pagula did play well Rabakina still won them and I think that mentally that was getting to Pagula a bit you don't see much negative body language for her but she was walking towards her team and there was a sort of despairing look in her face and features as if so, what can I do against this, you know? Yeah, like everything we said yesterday about Pagula being a great absorber of pace coming at her and being able to turn it back on an opponent and staying solid and deflecting it.

8:38Like, all of that is true. She's absolutely brilliant at that. She was having a much harder time doing that tonight against Rabatkin's ball. She kept saying, weight of shot is too much. I can't really handle it. And you have to credit Rabakina there for that. Is the Rabakina weight of shot greater than Anissa Moves? I guess on the forehand it is, and on the backhand probably net about the same. I think it's a bit different in as much... I mean, I don't know what it feels like, but I think generally speaking, Rabakina isn't having to try to hit the thing as hard all the time. Her natural stroke is just heavy and piercing and skidding and hard when she's playing well like that.

9:25And it's off the back of the big serve as well. So you probably never really feel like you're in charge. And the difference is, how do you extract the error? Unless the forehand goes off, which it did towards the end of the second set. she talked Pagula about the strides that Anissa Mova had made yesterday in terms of rally tolerance compared to the past but I still I don't think that would even be a conversation point to have about Rabakina I don't think there's ever been a question mark about her rally tolerance because she's a great baseliner who doesn't miss much and I think that there's still a difference there I think Rabakina has a a more all-round, reliable, matured, full game.

10:13I think Anisimova will get better yet, but she's not at Rabakina's level yet. And the serve that Anisimova doesn't have, maybe will never have. No one else in the world has it. Right, exactly. It's the best serve when it's clicking like that. It's so smooth, isn't it? It has to be said, I would say today, first serve, because actually Pagula really did a good job of taking advantage of the Rabakina second serve. But the first serve is such a weapon. She hits so many aces on it. She gets a lot of free points on it, even if they're not aces. And it does set her up. And I do think compared to Anissimova, Rabakina is just more settled on court.

10:56I think the serve sets it up. But then also, I do think she's a slightly better mover than Anissimova and slightly better at handling the slice, especially coming forward. And I do think a couple of times today Pagula did have success with the slice, but it was nowhere near as a reliable play for her to be able to just drop the ball short in a rally that she did so well yesterday against Anissimova. And I think Pagula, even if she was soaking up the Anissimova power, always felt like she had a play in the rally. was I just think against Rabatkinner, she was doing a good job at times of really soaking up the power, but it always just seemed like she was on the back foot, generally in the match-up.

11:38And that's what Rabatkinner's overwhelming, smooth game can do to you. And on the Rabatkinner serve, both today and yesterday against Chantec, she was serving at below 50%, which she generally considered to be a bad serving day, and I guess kind of is. but she wins such a high percentage of points on that first serve that it doesn't feel like she's having a bad serving day because she's still at that low percentage. She's still dominating on serve more than anybody else would be on that percentage. But then also there is more upside to be had in her game. Imagine if she comes out in the final against Sabalenka and serves at 70%.

12:20Yeah, well, we've seen her thrash Sabalenka before, which is an extraordinary thought, isn't it? To think of a player that is capable of going on a tennis court and knocking Irina Sabalenka off a court. We've seen it happen. The other thing I would point to as well is her return which Pigula doesn't have a big serve, she doesn't have a bad serve but it was so often being rammed down her throat on the return and without, again, and there's some overcomparison without trying to hit the living daylights out of it. It's just her natural stroke is thudding. It's nice going into this final that we'll talk about Sabalenka in a moment, but it's nice going into this Rabatkin-Sabalenka final, knowing how good their matches against one another can look.

13:11Because I remember three years ago ahead of their final, we were sort of excited about it from an individual perspective because they were both playing so well, but we were worried about how their games would match up against one another and whether there would ever be a rally longer than two or three shots and obviously it turned into an absolute classic and they've had more barnstormers since then so I feel pretty good here I am promising a good tennis match on Saturday but I feel pretty good about the potential for what that match could be Yes, me too it's quite an odds head to head in that the last nine matches they've played against each other they've alternated winners you have to go back to 2023 for the last time someone won two in a row in that rivalry which was Rabakina so I think it's been one of those that's been a little hard to grasp like who's got the advantage here because they keep going back and forth a lot of Sabalenka's wins have tended to be three sets It was only Wuhan last year where she actually did get a straight sets win.

14:20But I do think Rabakina was, you know, she was chasing that spot at the WTA final. She probably wasn't quite at her peak then. Whereas Rabakina has beaten Sabalenka in ways that no one else has really done it. As David said, she's had a lot of straight sets wins. She had wins where she's blown her off the court in a way that no one else has really. And that's interesting because it brings into play the Sabalenka stat of not losing a Grand Slam match in straight sets since 2020. It's an extraordinary run that she's on, Sabalenka. But by far and away, the most dangerous opponent for her to lose that stat is Rabakina because of what she's done to her in the past.

15:09So it is pretty tantalising. Obviously, it will be a dud because it's the 2026 Australian Open, but it is tantalising and I am excited for it because there's so much in the matchup that I can't fully get my head around. Sabalenka tonight, 6-2, 6-3 over Alina Svitolina, a match that reminded me of Alcaraz de Menor from the other night. I wrote the same thing down while watching it. Different weight classes, somebody flinging their body, heart and soul at every single ball, playing out of their skin. That turn of phrase that Alex de Menor gave us the other night in that devastating press conference, I had to play out of my comfort zone and out of my skin.

15:58That was what I was thinking of while watching Alina Svitolina tonight. that sort of heavy feeling of, even though she was in a lot of, you know, in that 6-2 opening set, she was in a lot of those Sabalenka service games, it still felt like a lost cause. Yeah, as we were careering towards the end and it looked like it was going to be 6-2, 6-2, I remember thinking, right, Dane, it doesn't feel like a 6-2, 6-2 match because I think Elena Svitolin is actually playing some good stuff here. And at the start of the match, the TV channel interviewed Gail Monfils, her husband, who's sitting there as part of the team.

16:41And he's in the corner of the court. And he's saying, you know, the idea is to dictate, to try to not let Sabalenka dictate. And, of course, this is the new 2026 version of Alina Svitolina. It has been for the last couple of years. She was number three in the world in 2017, 2018. But she didn't play like that. She played much more counter-attacking tennis. Now she's going after the ball. And there was one rally, it must have been midway through this match, where they just stood there and they just traded forehands, like two boxers trading right hands over the top and just testing each other's chin.

17:21And Svitolina was throwing her entire body into these balls and she was not backing down and she was going to hit it even harder. and she hit one right out of the middle of the strings but it went straight down the middle didn't get Sabalenka moving at all just went straight down the middle and you could see Sabalenka just thinking yes, come on then, let's go for it and she's even got a greater way to shot and like the Dimon or Alcaraz thing she's got the revolutions on the ball as well so she can hit that shot with a bit more clearance over the net and it still bounds off into the distance after hitting the ground that summed up the match in many ways to me but I also feel as though the moment I thought Svitolina's got no chance was the moment that a hindrance call was called against Sabalenka because I could tell looking at Sabalenka it pissed her off and the moment she got pissed off she just I thought she's going to be even more dangerous here It was Matt's favourite moment of the match he came alive when the hindrance was called jumped out of his seat.

18:27Hindrance. I do enjoy a hindrance call. It just adds drama. You don't get it that often and, you know, therefore you see players have to respond to it. Something that they would not have planned for at all. This extra element just thrown into a match. And I do think there were potentially times in Sabalenka's career where that might have thrown her off. You know, I do think that she's such a, she's developed mentally, I think, to be able to channel or something like that. And yeah, I was with David. I did think that was bad news. Like when, you know, like when Nadal used to get called for the shot clock and then like he would, like, make sure he would not miss the serve and then guaranteed win the next point, just trying to prove a point.

19:14And yes, I mean, Sabalenka, she was trying to prove a point to the umpire. She was annoyed with the umpire. She gave you some extraordinary quotes, David, about what she was thinking about the umpire in that moment. Well, yeah, because I wanted to confirm that I was right, that it had annoyed her and that it had actually energised her performance even more. And all I said in the press conference was there was a hindrance call early on in the first set. and I could see by the look in her face as soon as I said that she'd been waiting for it because she wanted to get this out of her system and I was about to say does it make you play better if you feel you've had an injustice against you I didn't get that far I could see in her look in her eye I said well what was your view of it and she just went off and and and basically said it pissed me off I think it wasn't fair it's just I think she said it's a natural exhalation when And I hit the ball and I didn't think it was right.

20:22But any time she wants to give me a hindrance call in the future, please do because it's going to make me play better. I'm curious to know whether you feel like the hindrance call was fair, by the way. I did. Yeah, I did. I can understand why she was annoyed about it because I think she does that quite a lot. Yeah. And she doesn't get called on it a lot. What did she do exactly? But I think that's a failing of officialdom, you know, inconsistency. Like, I think, according to the rules, this was the correct call. Yeah, like, she does this thing, Sabalenka, where if she thinks a ball is going out after she's hit it, she adds on a little extra part of her natural grunt.

21:12So it becomes like two sounds, her grunt, when that happens. and on this ball in particular, she mishits it. And I think she's convinced it's going out in that moment and she makes that extra sound. But while the ball is still in play and Svitolina's got a play on it. And like Catherine said, I've become so attuned to watching Arena Sabalenka that in the stadium at the moment, in the moment, it didn't jump out to me as a hindrance because I'm used to it from Sabalenka. it's something that she does a lot. Whereas the other hindrance we had earlier on in the tournament with Mukova celebrating midpoint before she'd hit a winner, that was very obviously a hindrance to me.

21:57This was a more subtle one. But I do think she made an extra sound as Svitolina was still about to hit the ball. And I can understand her frustration because she's not normally called out for that. But I actually don't think you can have too many complaints. It strikes me as a bit harsh, but reasonable from the umpire. My anecdotal theory that I can't prove, because I'm not sure anyone is nerdy enough to be compiling data on this, but I think Hindren's calls are on the rise. I've certainly noticed more of them. Yes, I think, yeah, anecdotally, that feels the same to me. If there's been a crackdown, it's all that Red Bull they're drinking.

22:50What else to say about this match? I mean, we should say Svitolina did go up a break in the second set. Right at the start of it. Right at the start of it. And then consolidated that break. And Sabalenka did a sarcastic thumbs up to her box. She was definitely rattled and Svitolina was playing out of her mind. But that's the problem, isn't it? She was having to play out of her mind. Yeah, she was. As you said, you can't do nothing with the ball against Sabalenka. She'll flatten you. If you try and force it, you will make errors. If you hit with a decent pace but not enough pace, you will just feed Sabalenka.

23:34It was so hard to think of a game plan, really, for Svitolina. But she was doing everything she possibly could, as evidenced by that start of the second set. But it was always going to require Sabalenka to go a bit off, I think, for her to have a chance. And maybe, you know, again, far easier said than done. But as David said, I did think a lot of Svitolina's shots were directed more or less at Sabalenka. I didn't feel like Sabalenka was having to hit on the run or move all that much. Yeah, I thought she had to move. And I think she got too into this toe-to-toe slugfest. And you don't want to have one of those against Sarinda Sabalenka.

24:16I mean, she's just got greater power. And she was playing well too, Sabalenka. She's been playing well for the last two or three rounds, hasn't she? And it's a different level to what we saw in the first week. The moment she got broken back for two all, I saw Monfils straight out of his chair trying to just reassure Svitolina because I think she was in a similar position to Pagula. You're outmatched power-wise. You're trying to impose your game. You've got your plan. but your plan doesn't mean anything if if you're just up against somebody who's overwhelming it like that and they were they were actually quite similar apart from the the comeback at the end of the the Rebecca and her Pegula match they're actually quite similar they um they've they've done for the last couple of years haven't they the Australian Open they've put messages on the screen during these matches between Ukrainians and Russians and Belarusians to say to forewarn the crowd that there won't be a handshake um they also did an announcement of that tonight a vocal announcement which i think is a a good call to keep the crowd informed about that but they they did they did it at 6252 oh did they which felt a bit on the nose for sutilina it was very much like this is about to end yeah yeah that reminds me of all the years i was the communications manager on the ATP or at the Queen's tournament where it's the final and when you got to sort of 6-2-4-3 you'd bring the trophy into the corner of the court and just try and keep it out of view but you knew you'd got to get out there quickly It's like how Emily Maresmo always hovers in the corner of Philippe Chattrier It's like, I think it was Medvedev a few days ago had a funny line in his on-court interview after beating Marajan when he was two sets down and he said oh I spotted you courtside Mats it was Mats Valander doing the interview he said I spotted you courtside at the end of the third set and I was thinking god it's a shame that Mats has chosen to watch one of my really bad matches and then I realised that actually you were there because you were about to interview Marajan unless I got a move on and mounted a comeback it was a classic quip from Medvedev we'll have time tomorrow to do a proper preview of this final between Rabakina and Sabalenka what I will ask you now is which of the two have impressed you more individually this tournament

26:54I'm afraid to say I think it's pretty much a dead heat I don't think I have an emphatic answer I mean I think certainly in week one Rabakina was the better player I think in as much in terms of form, but I think Sabalenka's caught up. I personally would put them about on a par at the moment. For me, Rabatkinner has had the standout win, beating Sviante. You know, I think Sabalenka, there's been no match where I've thought Sabalenka might lose. You know, like, she's been impressive. Her performances have been brilliant, but they've also been pretty much what I was expecting from her. You know, like, you know, this run she's been on in the second week, as David says, Mboko, Jovic, Svitolina, I thought she'd win all of those matches in straight sets.

27:46She's been brilliant. And I liked, I think what's impressed me most is the way she's flicked the switch from the first week to the second week and been in sort of title winning form now for a few days. But, you know, I was not, I was one of the people not convinced that Rabatkin's end of season form would necessarily translate to Grand Slams because we'd seen her underperform at Slams in the last couple of years, really. And it just felt like she was delivering in those sort of one-week events on tour, but trying to bring it to the majors felt like something that hadn't really been happening. But, well, she's proven me completely wrong because she's carried on her form from the end of last season.

28:31She's now on a, I think, nine-match winning streak against top 10 players. Like it's a really brilliant run she's on. So it's hard because you're comparing them against the expectations of them that you have. But I would probably slightly lean Rebecca in answer to your question. But I would lean Sabalenka in terms of who I'm favouring for the title, if that makes sense. Neither have dropped a set en route to the finals. It's one of those unstoppable force. No, yes. unstoppable force, immovable object situation. Something's got to give. And the thing I wanted to shout out for Sabalenka is that she's reached seven consecutive Grand Slam finals at the hard court slams now.

29:19Wow. That's matching the streak that Steffi Graf and Martina Hingis did. Monica Seles did reach eight in a row, but they weren't consecutive slams because she had the time away from the sport. But this is a really incredible run of consistency. And four Australian Open finals in a row is the kind of thing that greats do, right? Greats have a slam that they always show up in and dominate and put together streaks and feel like the person to beat. And we've had Igor Svontek do that, Roland Garros of this generation, and Savalenka is doing it right now in Australia. She'd already been doing it, but just reaching another final just really cements it, I think.

30:08You were in Savalenka's press conference, David. She was asked about the rumoured return of Serena Williams, which has put the cat amongst the pigeons today. Not amongst my pigeons, but some pigeons have some cats amongst them. yes um i i think um irina sabalenka will she was she wasn't committing a particular view to it other than whatever makes her happy i hope she does um but i also i i dare say irina sabalenka would love it if serena williams did come back because i think she would love to take her on but yeah it is interesting isn't it this was an interview that Serena did on the Today programme in America The Today programme is a highbrow Radio 4 show in the UK true, well put this is maybe not quite the same but that having been said I really quite enjoyed the interviewer's style of just not letting her off the hook and repeatedly saying, are you coming back?

31:21You've signed up to the drug testing program again, where you have to show your whereabouts and all that sort of thing. Are you coming back? And she was refusing to basically answer it. She was trying to get out of having to answer it. And she was trying to sort of joke her way through it. And then the interviewer kept saying, well, you're not saying no. Is that a maybe? That's a maybe, I think. And she was trying to get out of it. and not say anything, but she certainly didn't say, no, I'm not coming back. So maybe she is. We'll find out. I will believe it when I see it. I don't want to piss on any bonfires, but I would...

32:02I don't know. She's got something to promote, hasn't she? So the speculation is publicity, and publicity is good for her. Yeah, I'm certainly not about to assume that she's definitely coming back, but she might, I guess. It's also just another classic example of sort of anything Serena does making such big news, because this was essentially the in-person form of what she did on Twitter a few weeks ago, when it was all sort of announced. Like, she's not going to announce this except on her terms if she is coming back. Like, she was quick to play it down on Twitter. She was trying to play it down in this interview.

32:55Like, to me, like, there was no news today. And yet all I'm hearing about is Serena Williams. And that is the sort of effect that Serena has and probably wants. Yeah. Let's see and let's wait for Serena herself to say something. Yeah, all she did was say, I'm not prepared to shut this down entirely because you all talking about it is good for me. But that is part of journalism, isn't it? Oh, absolutely. No problem with the asking. To ask the question and if you don't get a no, then that's quite different to... I mean, to be fair, that is what they do on the Today programme. Absolutely. maybe not that different after all.

33:41Folks, that is it for part one. Do join us in part two, though, for a change to the regular programming because part two is where we'll have sensation of the day. But first, an important word from our lovely sponsors of this and every episode of the Tennis Podcast throughout this 2026 Australian Open. It is, of course, Steve Fergal's International Tennis Tours, the premium hospitality and experience provider. and an official ticket and travel package provider for Roland Garros 2026. Yeah. Where Yannick Sinner's going to be going for a career slam. Will he be chasing Carlos Alcaraz or will he be trying to get one over on Carlos Alcaraz?

34:27We don't know. What we do know is that with Steve Fergels, you can do Roland Garros the official way, which means you're guaranteed peace of mind and a faff-free experience at one of the most beautiful sporting events in the world. And Tennis Podcast listeners can now save 10 % on Roland Garros ticket packages. And you can also add on premium hospitality options as well. All of it secured the official way. Just go to tours4tennis.com forward slash podcast. That's tours4tennis.com forward slash podcast and use the code PARIS10 for that brilliant 10 % discount. Welcome back to part two of today's tennis podcast, where we have moved up sensation of the day.