French Open Draws - Swiatek vs. Ostapenko could be ON!

15:51David Law:He's heard Catherine's takes and he's gone down.

15:54Matt Roberts:OK, the draw itself. Let's start with the women. We'll stop midway through to have a chat about some Olympic canoeing. That's how things roll out here. The headlines. We have Coco Goff and Irina Sabalenka drawn in the same half. And in the bottom half, we have Iger Shvontek and Elena Rabaknes. Vitalina is in that bottom half as well. Marta Kostiuk, two. a potential round three between Iger Svjontek and Jelena Ostapenko and some absolutely mouth-watering round ones. Like, a real great smattering throughout the draw of juicy-looking first-round matches. I mean, frankly, right at the top, Irina Sabalenka against Jessica Boutas-Monero, that's a tough opener for Irina Sabalenka.

16:43David Law:Yeah, she's... I mean, look, I think Sabalenka would fancy herself against any first round in this draw, and yet if you line that up on paper, you've got a really talented clay court specialist, somebody who can play on other things as well, but, I mean, she likes clay, and, you know, it's not ideal. I mean, talking about the number of round one matches that stand out, as well as doing my third round onwards predictions, I also circled whatever I thought looked like a good first round match in both draws. And in the women's draw, I've circled 11 matches. I mean, that's a decent helping, isn't it?

17:22Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, it really is. And I think what I find interesting about a lot of the round one matches that jump out is that they're disruptors with the opportunity to disrupt. You know, like Laura Seedman against Naomi Osaka jumped out to me. that's that's one that's in that top i think i think is having a tough time there yeah i think so i think her eggs are getting scrambled i think siegmund sees prey

17:52Matt Roberts:do you think she'll beat her maybe yeah see the sort of player she beats i've got a soccer

17:59David Law:in the sort of match that she third round onwards i've got her in so i've got her taken out siegmund but it might take two and a half hours.

18:08Matt Roberts:I mean, look, Asag should be beating Siegmund, but I think Laura Siegmund is pretty thrilled at that draw.

18:13Catherine Whitaker:Yeah. I mean, even in that top section, the Sabalenka section, you've got Jovic against Eala in the first round, which is just great. Mboko against Barton Kovar is really exciting, I think, as well.

18:28David Law:Goffin Townsend is a particular favourite of mine.

18:32Matt Roberts:Boisson Kalinskaya.

18:33David Law:Yeah.

18:33Matt Roberts:That should have got a new La La. They got a sigh.

18:38David Law:She's had a tough time, hasn't she, Boisson? They only do a lot last for the men.

18:41Matt Roberts:Certainly today they did.

18:43David Law:Boisson's had a tough time this last year, hasn't she? It'd be lovely if she could find some form. I mean, she's had terrible injury.

18:49Matt Roberts:Baptiste Krejcikova jumps out, doesn't it? And I know which one you want to talk about, Matt.

18:54Catherine Whitaker:Svitolina Bondar? Yeah. Oh, my God. Give us the backstory. Well, what did we say just in our show very recently? is Fittolina real real contender at Roland Garros and you know you would quit unless she gets Anna Bondar and she's only gone and got Anna Bondar in round one this is the person who beat her in Madrid and beat her at the US Open last year and we wrote off the Madrid one there's oh she's just got an Anna Bondar problem but in the big picture the French Open that's all right what are the chances that you get drawn against Anna Bondar well she's got her in round one and she also played her here last year at the French, and that was six and five, I think.

19:36Catherine Whitaker:Like, two tight sets. She did blow her out at Wimbledon. Svitolina crushed her at Wimbledon last year. How many times are these two playing against? What is happening? But, yeah, like, it is a tricky draw because that's someone who has beaten her very recently. Look, I would still expect Svitolina to win, but it felt like a troll, didn't it, from the draw gods.

19:57Matt Roberts:I love it when a really great player has a really niche match-up issue with a slightly random player. I mean, Shrontek has it with Ostapenko, doesn't she? She's not random Ostapenko. I'm very aware she's a former champion here, but, like, relatively speaking, and the size of the issue that she has, like, that is sort of an oversized problem that she has with Jelena Ostapenko. Zverev has one with Gareen.

20:26David Law:I mean, he beat him recently, but he should have lost, and he's lost to him a couple of times before.

20:32Matt Roberts:It's just one of the things about tennis that I really love. So as much as I kind of really don't want to lose in Lina Svitolina from this draw in round one, I also do love that for the draw.

20:45David Law:You'll be on the front row.

20:45Matt Roberts:Yeah, absolutely. Who else do we want to talk about here?

20:51David Law:I like Paolini Jastrzemska as a first-round match. I mean, in terms of just intrigue that's in the other half of the draw.

20:58Matt Roberts:It's tough for Paulini, that, I think.

20:59David Law:But it is fascinating.

21:02Matt Roberts:But then maybe everyone's tough for Paulini at the moment.

21:05Catherine Whitaker:And then there's also Baptiste Krejcikova in the first round.

21:11David Law:And which, you know, when you're talking about disruptors, which...

21:14Catherine Whitaker:They're both disruptors.

21:16David Law:Yeah, you kind of think, well, Krejcikova feels like a disruptor these days because she so rarely plays that she can't really get seeded. And yet here she is a Grand Slam champion that could beat so many players on a day.

21:28Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, so that's the great round one matches, which as David says, littered throughout this draw. I think just looking at the big picture of the draw, I think, as you said, Sabalenka and Goff in the same half, which is obviously interesting because that means we can't get a repeat of last year's final. And I do like both of their draws to get through to that stage. I know we've talked about all these names and great round one matches, but there's obviously a question mark over Sabalenka's fitness a little bit, and there's the form that she comes in here with, which is not quite so strong as it usually is.

22:07Catherine Whitaker:But I'm still looking at that draw, and knowing Sabalenka's record at majors is so consistent, and thinking she's going to make it through probably at least to the semis. I think maybe the most dangerous name for Coco Gauff is actually Potapova, who is a possible third-round opponent for her and has obviously had a really good season. Actually won her last two matches against Coco Gauff, I was looking. It was back in 2023, so maybe not hugely relevant.

22:37Matt Roberts:But Potapova's a lot better now than she was in 23.

22:40Catherine Whitaker:And she's just been dangerous. She's that flat hitter that on her day, I think, could rush Goff if Goff isn't quite at her best. That's kind of the name that's jumping out to me as a big obstacle for Coco Goff. But with the caveat that you can't really trust Potapova. She could also go out before the third round there. So if that happens, I think that is a little bit tricky for Goff. But overall, I do like the draws here for Sabalenka and Goff, I think, to meet in the Sanis.

23:10Matt Roberts:According to seeding, it would be Pagula to face Sabalenka in the quarterfinals and Anisimova to face Goff in the quarters. Matt having ruled Anisimova out of the mix and done his best to lower all expectations, said she's got a wrist niggle, she hasn't played. Unfair of me to have any expectations of her. Five minutes into the draw was leaning over saying, I do quite like that section for Anisimova, you know.

23:37David Law:and is Matt also trying the sort of reverse psychology thing you know he's he's tried the sort of unfettered hope of last year and nearly got over the line and nearly got himself blonde hair but you know now now he's putting the downer on everything and maybe she'll come good I one one player that I've got her having to get through if she's going to reach that quarterfinal is Zheng Chin-wen, who is unseeded here and is in a section of the draw where she could meet Elisa Mertens in the second round, which I would... If Zheng is fit, I would think she would win that, personally. I think she's going to come through.

24:17Matt Roberts:She's a fun fluter, isn't she, Zheng?

24:19Catherine Whitaker:I think Noskova in that section is also dangerous, having a good year, beat Goff very recently. Yeah, so there are obstacles for Sabalenka and Goff. I just trust them, I suppose.

24:32Matt Roberts:bottom half of the draw potentially more of a minefield for these big seeds obviously I've already mentioned the headline that jumped out at me which is that Jelena Ostapenko only needs to win two matches well and for Svantec to win two matches imagine if Ostapenko held up her

24:50Catherine Whitaker:end of the deal

24:51Matt Roberts:in order to get to take on Igor Svantec here

24:55David Law:I've got crossings out on my draw around this area I've got I had Ostopenko beating Svantec

25:04Matt Roberts:Which isn't a big call Like she always beat Svantec And she's beaten Svantec She's beaten better versions of Svantec Than the one that we've seen most recently

25:15Catherine Whitaker:That was in the fourth round is it? It's third round

25:18David Law:So that's third round So I've got Svantec not getting through To the fourth round on one hand Then crossed out and she's in the semi-finals

25:29Matt Roberts:I would back Ostapenko if that match happens

25:35David Law:well we know she lives for it

25:37Matt Roberts:yeah

25:38David Law:does Klay favour Ostapenko I mean obviously we know Svantec is at her best on Klay but is Ostapenko at her best on Klay

25:47Matt Roberts:I mean look there's a difference between Roland Garros Klay and everywhere else Klay right Ostapenko has beaten her on Klay before I don't think Klay is a huge favour for either of them. But Roland Garros is definitely a tick in the Shvantec box. But, you know, I still have a seed of doubt about Shvantec mentally. And she's got no bigger mental problem than with Jelena Ostapenko.

26:17David Law:Is Ostapenko going to get there? She might have to beat Teresa Valantova.

26:21Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, Valantova or Lynette probably in the second round is...

26:27Matt Roberts:But she's got a mission now. She's got a reason to win.

26:31David Law:We were talking earlier about how we were in this position a year ago, I think around later.

26:36Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, they would have met in the fourth round.

26:37David Law:But the third round opponent was Rybakkener. But so few people, including us, were talking about Rybakkener in the way we are now that that almost felt... I don't know whether it felt like an upset, But I think we thought maybe Ostapenko would get there then, and Rybakkena did, and they ended up having a good match.

26:54Matt Roberts:Yeah, a good indicator of how far we've come with Rybakkena in the last 12 months now, isn't it?

27:01Catherine Whitaker:I also think Ostapenko came in with a bit stronger form last year as well. And look, the replacement match we got was brilliant. Rybakkena-Sviontek, that was a fantastic match. It was just less fun and less fun. Yeah. And, you know, we're kind of always looking for that.

27:20Matt Roberts:This is the third quarter we're talking about here. So the top of the bottom half. In terms of seeding, it would be Svitolina against Svjontek, the projected quarterfinal. But, of course, Ostapenko standing in Svjontek's way. Marta Kostiuk is in that Svjontek section as well. That would be a fourth round opponent.

27:38Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, I mean, that's it, right? Like, if, if, if, doesn't exist, but if the draw holds, this is a nightmare for Svantec from third round onwards. Ostapenko, her nightmare. Kostiuk, who is on a 12-match winning streak on clay, and by that point would be a 15-match winning streak if they met in the fourth round. And then Svitolina. Three of the form players or issues for Svantec. I think it's comfy for Svantec in the first couple of rounds, but after that, if the draw holds, I think this is really hard for Igor Svantec.

28:13David Law:You still might have to beat Rybakina and Savalinka after that lot to win the title.

28:18Catherine Whitaker:She could, but it's a big ask. You know, I feel like we put that in our pod title last year for the Roland Garros draw. It's just a nightmare for Igor's Fionta. And she navigated through it pretty well. And she didn't end up facing Ostopenko. So she can definitely overcome it. But she's going to have to play well, I think, to come through, even to the semis.

28:40Matt Roberts:What about Rabakina at the bottom of the draw? So Paulini is in her eighth. Mirandreva would be her projected quarterfinal opponent according to seeding. You've got Mukova in there is probably the other biggest name. Saranaka Steyer we should probably pick out as being in that section as well. She would be a fourth-round opponent for Elena Rabakina, a third round opponent for Jasmine Paolini, if Paolini can get there?

29:13David Law:Yeah, these are all good players. I've sort of got your Stremska beating Paolini, but I just feel that Rabakina is going to take care of all of those. I mean, I'm a big Andreva fan. I still think that Rabakina, once you get to the quarterfinals and you stick it on coach Philippe Chatrier in still conditions, relatively speaking, I'd expect her to win that and be playing Sviante.

29:43Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, I think I agree. I think on paper, third round, Baptiste, fourth round, Castella, quarterfinal, Andreeva or Mukava. I think that's tough for Rabatkinner, I do, but she's so much more convincing this year and I do still favour her in all of those match-ups individually, I think. So, yeah, tricky, but I would expect Rebecca, I think, to come through.

30:10Matt Roberts:So, David, do you have the top four seeds in the semis?

30:13David Law:Yeah, I do. Yeah. I must admit, when I'm doing this sort of thing, your eyes do get drawn to the players in bold quite a lot. But, I mean, I think in the women's draw, they are the standout players. As deep as women's tennis is, like I said, I had the crossings out and I actually had Kostiuk getting through at one stage to the quarters and then I just thought, no, it's Iger Sviantek, for goodness sake. You know, I can't believe that she's not going to find this sooner or later here again. I mean, she's won the thing four times. She's still young.

30:47Matt Roberts:But she could find it and still lose to Elena Ostapenko.

30:51David Law:Well, Ostapenko is such a wild card where it comes to her. It's freakish what she does with her. And I don't think it's just, you know, it'd be very easy to say, oh, it's mental. I think it's also game. Oh, yeah, big time. You know, the way that ball rears up at Ostapenko, she just looks at it, most players look at that as a nightmare. She looks at it as an invitation to just hurt with her power and go for broke, and that going for broke makes it very difficult for Svantec to get a foothold.

31:23Matt Roberts:Matt, what do you think? Top four in the semis? Do you think Svitolina's losing to Anna Bondar? I know she's not top four seed, but...

31:34Catherine Whitaker:No, I don't. I'm backing Svitolina.

31:35Matt Roberts:You're backing Svitolina. Do you think Shontek's losing to Ostapenko?

31:40Catherine Whitaker:I think I do, yeah. Wow. Where'd you draw end up then?

31:46Matt Roberts:So would you have Svitolina-Rabakina in the semis?

31:50Catherine Whitaker:Yes, probably. And then Gough-Savalenka. And then I think I would have Rabakina coming through that, actually. I think I've got Rabakina in the final. and then Gough Savalenka is the one I never know how to predict.

32:04Matt Roberts:It's funny, it was only a very short, you know, light little chit-chat that Coco Gough had on the stage at the draw. But, you know, the first question was, how are you feeling? She said, yeah, I'm feeling good. And then it was, but how are you really feeling? Like, you know, are you really feeling ready? And she was like, yeah, like as ready as I can be, I think. Like, yeah.

32:31Matt Roberts:um but no she's you know good on her for for doing that um okay that is it for the women's draw let's have a chat about the men's draw um look there was kind of there was one big intake of breath for for this draw wasn't there it was previewed in advance it was gonna it it was all about who's in Sinner's half and who's not in Sinner's half and Novak Djokovic is not in Yannick Sinner's half of the draw which kind of makes it a good draw like in the men's if you want to win this title there is there's really only one good draw to be had here and it's not it's being as far away from Yannick Sinner as possible and yet looked at another way it might be a bit of a nightmare draw for Novak Djokovic.

33:21Matt Roberts:Giovanni Mpesci Perikar in the opening round potential French player in the second round, potential Fonseca in the third, Kaspar Ruud in the fourth, Duminor in the quarterfinals if he gets there, Zverev in the semis, and then Yannick Sinner in the final. Is it a nightmare draw for Novak Djokovic, David?

33:44David Law:I think it is, really. I think, relatively speaking, I don't love that for Djokovic, some of those names. I mean, look, I've got him running into trouble against Kasparud, personally, if they get that far. But, yeah, he could have had an easier time than that, I think. I mean, just as an indication of the difference in the feel of the men's and the women's draws, I told you I circled 11 matches in the first round in the women's draw. I've circled five in the men's. now maybe I've not been as specific about some of those and maybe I've missed a couple but I mean I just feel like that tells a story really

34:27Matt Roberts:see I feel like there are I agree not as many I feel like there are quite a few fun first rounds in the men's draw what I don't think is fun is I mean look I just like competition in tennis and sport and no matter what came out of the draw I was always going to feel like Yannick Sinner was the favourite for this title, I think the draw for Sinner is an absolute joke. Like, genuinely Elliot Spitzeri might be his biggest problem. Like, if there's a heatwave and Spitzeri somehow makes his way through to the quarterfinals. Like, I mean, tell me. Tell me if Sinner is fit and has all his limbs intact.

35:16Matt Roberts:probably doesn't even need to be that fit. Just the limbs. Tell me who could possibly beat Yannick Sinner in that top half of the draw.

35:27Catherine Whitaker:Boy, I think... I think I probably have one name. Hit me. Medvedev. And look, I'm not predicting Medvedev to beat Sinner, but you saw the way Medvedev worried him in Rome, And I think the element here is stress. Could Sinner get stressed and could that have a physical reaction on his body if it's hot as well? There are elements here which could diminish Yannick Sinner. If Yannick Sinner is at his best, I think he probably reaches the final without dropping the set. I think he's that dominant over everyone in this half of the draw, including Medvedev, to be clear. but I just think with those intangibles Medvedev might be one who could possibly be able to exploit them on a very specific day but the thing that jumped out for me is that early on his draw is actually incredibly similar to what we've seen him have at Roland Garros in the last couple of years we've seen him play Mute here we've seen him play Rindekanesh we've seen him play Bublik and okay Mute was quite fun for a set or so but generally and Rindekanesh he was fun for a little bit as well but generally he's handled those sort of

36:38Matt Roberts:mercurial players those matchups because those flare players just lose their pizzazz against him like I never want to see public sinner again as long as I live I mean there's something else going on there with ego and psychology but like you know I know mute I went five love up on Yannick sinner and that was fun in a weird way for a bit, but then it wasn't a match at all, was it?

37:10David Law:I do think we're scarred by Bublik against Sinner at the US Open last year when it was, what did Bublik win? A couple of games and the whole thing.

37:19Catherine Whitaker:But also Bublik against De Manor at the Australian Open this year. He's just had a few where he's not really showing up.

37:24Matt Roberts:And he does his whole, oh, you're a robot thing. I mean, he's still the guy that,

37:30David Law:given the way he played against Draper last year here, makes me think, well, he's the guy, if he just burned hot one day, he could disrupt, he could make things interesting. I'd like to see Lander Luthe against Sinner in the third round. I'd like to see that. Not that I expect Sinner to lose, but I love watching Lander Luthe. I think he walks around believing he's going to beat people. So I want to see him bring it to the best. But other than that, I mean, I agree with you. I think Medvedev is likely to reach the semifinals. You do? Yes, I would have thought so. And I know it's not his favourite surface, but I've got him beating Kabali, I've got him beating Vashiro, I've got going through to the quarterfinals.

38:15But I think it tells you that there aren't that many obvious bankers

38:21David Law:the way that you would normally get, really. I think you've got a choice between lots of similar people who haven't really done that before. But I'd still expect Medvedev.

38:30Matt Roberts:The projected quarterfinal for Sinner would be Ben Shelton, and for Medvedev, it would be Felix Auger-Eliassime.

38:37Catherine Whitaker:Yeah. I think the way I'm looking at this draw is that, you know, if you're like us and you're following the tournament like we follow it, literally every single day, and you're thinking about all the various possibilities and who can be the guy to potentially beat Yannick Sinner, then this top half is probably not giving you all that much enjoyment. but I think there are still some fun potential matches to be had just in and of themselves. I'm looking at a potential Cabali-Tien third round, and I don't look at that match like I do at some fun matches in the women's draw and think that's got big implications for the tournament as a whole.

39:18Catherine Whitaker:Right, but in itself, I think that would be a great watch, and that will be fun if that happens, I think. And Medvedev-Tien is impossible. So there's a lot of those throughout the men's draw. And I think, you know, the people who just come to Roland Garros for a day and tune in for a day and see that match, they're going to think, wow, that is still an amazing match and I'm going to have a good experience. It's just when you look at the bigger picture of it, which obviously we try to do, that's when I think you can end up feeling a little bit more sort of negative about it, I suppose.

39:49Matt Roberts:Yeah, round ones I've picked out here on the men's side. Thomas Mahatch against Zizou Burgs. Benjamin Bonzi against Alexander Zverev.

39:58Catherine Whitaker:And they're next to each other in the draw, those two matches.

40:01Matt Roberts:Right, winners to face one another. Moise Kwame against Marin Cilic, that got a rippling of ooh-la-la's, as did Alexandra Muller against Stefano Sitzepas. Giovanni Pesciperica against Novak Djokovic got a good ripple of ooh-la-la's. A big ripple of ooh-la-la's for Hugo Gaston against Gaël Monfils. and the biggest ooh-la-la of all for Stan Wawrinka against Artifice.

40:29David Law:I cannot wait. You've circled that one, David. Oh, yeah. I circled that before I did anything else.

40:36Matt Roberts:Did you buy a new highlighter for that one?

40:38David Law:That's the one.

40:39Matt Roberts:I don't want to, I mean, I've already been the bummer on this show once. Just my only note of worry about that match is they're going to put it on Chatelier Night Session and it should be on Longlen, but they're going to think it's too good to resign to Longlen, aren't they? Too attractive. Too attractive, and I want it on Longlen.

41:02David Law:Yeah, it would be perfect on Longlen, it really would. I mean, there's a chance that it might, because you've got Djokovic and Zverev in the same half of the draw and they are higher seeds, bigger names, it might work out like that.

41:22Catherine Whitaker:The thing is they spread the first round out through the three days so they've got three potential night sessions where they could fit that in I suppose.

41:31David Law:Same round though, oh no it's not the same round as Djokovic from Seca, that's one before.

41:36Matt Roberts:I would say it is nailed what half of the draw is Monfils in? I'd say it's nailed on that Monfils will play night session so if that is played on the same day then it won't be. I think that you can book that in. Whatever matches Monfils plays here, there'll be a Chateau night session. He's played a lot of them, hasn't he? And certainly Monfils Gaston. You can bet your house on that being Chateau night session.

42:02Catherine Whitaker:It's not ideal, is it, against another Frenchman?

42:04Matt Roberts:I don't think so, no.

42:06Catherine Whitaker:They'll all get behind Monfils, obviously.

42:08Matt Roberts:I think it's very much not ideal for Hugo Gaston.

42:11Catherine Whitaker:But he's a fun guy too. I can't, I'm looking forward to it. But you won't have the crowd with him because it's Monfils. You want everyone to be going with Monfils. Yeah, and it's a bit awkward, yeah.

42:21Matt Roberts:And it'll probably hold Gaston back from doing his fun stuff, some of it anyway, or trying to whip the crowd up.

42:31David Law:You have put a bummer on it for me.

42:34Matt Roberts:We talked about Djokovic's potential nightmare draw in that bottom half. How about Alexander Zverev, who would be Djokovic's semi-final opponent? So according to seedings, it would be Djokovic against Diminor in the quarters, and in the bottom quarter, it would be Fritz against Zverev. Now, look, I know Fritz is a massive question mark to get there. He's barely played on clay. He's lost early this week. But he is a problem for Alexander Zverev. You've got Kasper Rude in his section, who has been a problem for Zverev. You've got Rafael Rodar. You've got Artifis. if he can make his way past Stan Wawrinka.

43:14Matt Roberts:You know, given that Zverev's the second seed here and he always knew he was going to be avoiding Yannick Sinner in terms of the other problematic names, and none of them compared to Sinner, but in terms of the ones available, I don't think he's avoided as many of them as he would have liked.

43:30David Law:No, I don't think so either. I think he got a little bit fortunate when there were two names left that could have come out in his third round draw, and he got Hugo Humbert rather than Rafael Hodder. who ended up who could be a quarterfinal opponent for Zverev I think that one went his way because he's so good against left-handers I don't think Ugo and Bear will get close to Zverev if they play against each other but the first two rounds are quite interesting I think for Zverev Benjamin Bonzi because we know he can perform on the big stage because he's beaten Medvedev before in that way and then well the winner of Thomas Mahatch and Zizou Berg's they're mercurial players particularly Mahatch but I do think he's at least dangerous you know he's the sort of player that should be way higher in the world given his skill set um so I don't know I don't think that's ideal for a second round opponent um and then yeah Feast maybe in the fourth round if if he can get that far probably be more likely hatching off though I would have thought I said that like two

44:34Catherine Whitaker:or three days in David would be uh looking at Zverev's draw thinking okay yeah that player could be tough for him it actually happened within three seconds of of the draw coming out david started talking up the match bergs chances even the bonzi chances i love it we're so back i haven't got

44:53Matt Roberts:zverev in the final actually as it turns out who have you got caspar rude it's it's interesting

44:59Catherine Whitaker:going like you know so have you got rude beating djokovic yes yeah see to me that is a prediction that is entirely dependent on which Novak Djokovic shows up.

45:12Matt Roberts:How much he's expended to get there.

45:14Catherine Whitaker:Because, you know, he sort of reeled off that potential draw for Djokovic and Pesci, Perica, Fonseca, Rude. I don't think that's that tough if Djokovic is... Agreed. ...anything close to himself. But there is that question mark that he won't be. and therefore those are, you know, certainly Ruud is someone that I think could capitalise on a below-par Djokovic because he's solid, he'll keep bringing it, he can hit the heavy forehand, he's confident at the moment. It's just, I really don't feel like I can make a prediction for that before we get a better gauge of how Novak Djokovic is looking. But if I sort of had to say right now, I would lean on the side of Djokovic will probably be looking good enough to sort of get through that section would be my hunch at this stage.

46:08Catherine Whitaker:He could do with getting through it all efficiently, though.

46:12Matt Roberts:For sure. Because he got those massive helping hands in Australia and enabled him to preserve the canister. And, OK, he could get some walkovers here, but more likely he could do with some efficient winning.

46:28David Law:It's so interesting trying to work out whether him having just not played is going to mean he's got more in the tank or the fact that he hasn't played will mean he's not match tight and he's just not undercooked, you know, and not able to handle the sudden burst of requirement physically.

46:47Matt Roberts:David, I note that you ducked the Warrinka-Fees prediction. I'll assume that you're backing Fees.

46:53David Law:I am backing Fees, yeah.

46:55Matt Roberts:With a note of worry?

46:58David Law:Mainly because I just think there's a big question mark over Fees' fitness. I think it could very easily be a super entertaining four-set match before Feast gets hold of him, sort of thing, or really close sets all the way, you know, whether they're three, four or five. But I would have thought eventually, you know, a lot will be, can Feast keep his head as well? Because there'll be support for Feast, of course there will be, the home crowd will go for him, but there's such affection for Wawrinka here. I mean, I'm fascinated by how the crowd responds to that. I mean, because Fies is so used to here, I think, being able to just be the guy.

47:41David Law:And I think...

47:42Matt Roberts:I think that's from that... I mean, obviously tough on a tennis level, but from the sort of experiential level for both of them, I think that's a really tough draw because neither of them can be that guy completely in that scenario.

47:57David Law:Yeah, totally. Yeah, I'll be front row for wherever it is or as close as I can get to it. Long length. Yeah, I hope so. But I think I go Fies. What do you two think?

48:08Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, I go Fies ultimately as well. I think Fies' level this year is higher than Wawrinka's. And I think he can handle just about that scenario you put forward there, which I agree is a tricky one with him not having the full backing of the crowd. But it's a bad time to get Wawrinka. You know, first round when he hasn't expended too much energy. He was surprisingly still diesel, wasn't he, like this year? Like the way he's... I don't think five sets is phasing Wawrinka too much at the moment. And Feast is a question mark over five sets.

48:45Matt Roberts:Even his three-set matches are... He can't break anyone's serve, so he's just always in tie-break sets. So, yeah, I agree with you. I mean, I don't think it might be a problem if he was doing seven of them in a row.

48:59Catherine Whitaker:Right, exactly.

49:00Matt Roberts:I'm not sure anyone's sort of looking at that possibility. Can't wait for that to be clipped up in two and a half weeks' time when Rink is in the final. No. Anything else to pick out? Matt, who have you got in the final to face, let's assume, Yannick Sinner?

49:18Catherine Whitaker:Look, I think at this stage, I would say Djokovic. That would be epic, wouldn't it? Imagine if that happened.

49:26Matt Roberts:39-year-old Novak Djokovic, he beat him at the last slam.

49:28Catherine Whitaker:That would be a good story. And maybe that's crazy. But it doesn't feel crazy with Djokovic.

49:36Matt Roberts:He's the third seat.

49:37David Law:It does tell you something about the landscape, doesn't it? Yeah. I mean, as great as Novak Djokovic is, he is a part-time tennis player now, and he is 39. What? No, 39 tomorrow, I think, actually.

49:52Matt Roberts:Oh, OK. Happy birthday, Novak. Okay, that is it for part two. We will be back in part three to talk about the planned media walkouts by the tennis players. Welcome back to part three of today's tennis podcast, our first of 18 daily tennis podcasts throughout Roland Garros, our draw day show. Our second daily tennis podcast from Roland Garros is scheduled to be a media day show where we go to all of the press conferences, we speak to tennis players, we do some one-on-one interviews for Friends of the Tennis Podcast, for our Tennis Podcast Meet series, and then we chat about it all at the end of the day and make irrational assumptions about players' form based on throwaway answers they've given to our questions in press conferences.

50:44Matt Roberts:Whether that will be the show that we're producing tomorrow, who knows? Because this bombshell story broke yesterday while we were at dinner and I was being refused vinegar to go on my chips. Originally reported in The Guardian, the players will walk out of their pre-tournament press conferences after 15 minutes. The 15 minutes reflecting the 15 % of revenues that is currently allocated to prize money at Roland Garros. the 15 minutes this is reported following up today by ben rothenberg in his substack that 15 minutes will be divided up into 10 minutes in the press conference room and then five minutes on camera in a nearby uh room with the host broadcaster so that's what we call a world feed interview it tends to be a fairly kind of perfunctory how are you feeling how did your match go look ahead next opponent type of interview that is given wholesale to every rights-holding TV company to use as they see fit.

51:57Matt Roberts:So the protesting players will not stop for individual interviews with rights holders. So that's TNT in the UK and most critically in the US. That's Eurosport, that's France TV, that's Amazon Prime. Lots of TV networks that pay a big sum of cash in order to be rights holders at these tournaments. And that cash isn't just paid for the rights to show the matches. It's the access to these players in order to tell their stories and to make people at home care. apparently they also won't be participating in any other photo shoots or social media activities that would normally be arranged as part of Media Day.

52:44Matt Roberts:Usually what happens at Media Day is they come in and do a press conference then they'll go and do a series of TV interviews usually some of them sort of, we call them stand-up interviews where it's somebody there with a microphone quite often in front of a backdrop where they'll just ask two or three questions and then the big TV networks will hopefully get some of the players to come to their studio sets and do a sort of more involved, more time-consuming sit-down interview. Apparently, as is planned at the moment, none of that is going to be happening tomorrow. As reported in The Athletic yesterday, the players are understood to have studied the tournament rulebook and concluded that they will not be fined for this action so long as they fulfil their contractual obligations to conduct a short flash interview with rights holders after each match.

53:40Matt Roberts:So that an indication that they're planning to continue this action throughout the tournament. There is a meeting scheduled between the players and the tournament officials on Friday evening. Larry Scott is scheduled to be in attendance at this meeting. He's the big dog that is kind of herding all the tennis player cats together and doing a good job of it. Getting these players on the same page to do anything in a coordinating way is not easy. And indications are that that does seem to be happening to some extent, David. What do you make of this move from the players?

54:24David Law:Well, I'm not surprised if anybody's capable of getting combined action. It is Larry Scott. He's somebody I worked for at the ATP. He was the head person at the WTA. He's the person that helped drive through equal prize money at Wimbledon in 2007 alongside Billie Jean King and Venus Williams. When he talks, you do listen. But you're quite right, Catherine. when you think of how difficult the Professional Tennis Players Association have found it to get everybody to do the same thing, this is quite unusual. But what he's done is he's siphoned off the top ten players, the ones with the most influence, and he's got all of them on side, and it seems to have filtered down.

55:10David Law:We'll wait and see how it actually is tomorrow. And the fact is they are still doing their press conferences and they are still doing five minutes for TV. So it's not like if they'd have not been doing anything, that would have been really interesting. Maybe not so for trying to gather content, but I think it's going to be an effective boycott in terms of creating attention. We're here talking about it. It's been reported everywhere. I think it does put some pressure on the tournament because they can't deliver to their big money-paying rights holders the kind of access that they want. Those are the levers that are being pulled here.

55:55David Law:They won't lead to them getting exactly what they want. But it's a step to show that they mean business. And they will probably get some reaction out of the Grand Slams. that well then it's is that going to be enough for them to not do anything else in the future probably not you're probably going to have a series of these things and then it will depend on whether they can get close enough to what each of them what the the slams are prepared to give up and the players want in order for them to back down but i don't i don't see this being a one and done you know i this this makes me feel like okay these the players under this leadership under this influence main business?

56:34Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, I think that's the biggest takeaway for me, how quickly they seem to have mobilized and how, OK, we haven't seen it yet, but how well they seem to be sort of aligning our message and doing the same thing. And that sense of collective action, I think, has come about quicker than I expected, just based off those comments in press conferences from Rome a few weeks ago. So I think this is a step that it's serious and I think not talking to the rights holders will hurt the tournament. I think there's something in that but I think ultimately the players are going to have to get to a point where they're giving up something where there's something sort of really meaningful impact for them and them doing less media for most of them is sort of in their own interest rather than the opposite.

57:33Catherine Whitaker:And I think to get the full action at the end that they want, I think they'll have to give up something themselves. It doesn't really feel like that's what this is at this stage. But I do agree with David that it can maybe snowball and escalate from here over the years.

57:49Matt Roberts:Yeah, I think that's... In fact, I know that's where I come down as well. They've certainly demonstrated here that, I mean, assuming they pull this off tomorrow, that organisation and coordination-wise, they have something about them, no doubt. But in terms of their will and what they're prepared to do, I'm not sure this proves much at all. The power of a protest and strike action is in the union's preparedness to sacrifice for what they want, to fall on your sword for the greater good. And Billie Jean King sacrificed Grand Slam titles to achieve what she did for women's sports and women's rights.

58:34Matt Roberts:That was worth it to her. And the phrase, studying the tournament rulebook to identify exactly what moves you can make without being fined. Well, Billie Jean King, that ain't. Yes, I agree, this will hurt. There is power in hitting the broadcast contracts, no doubt. But does it signal to me or to Roland Garros, most importantly, and the other Grand Slams, of course, that these players would actually be prepared to put something meaningful on the line to achieve their aims? Like, not at all. Maybe they would be, but this doesn't go any way towards that. I don't think.

59:15David Law:Certainly not yet. We would have to go back in time to know exactly how things unfolded around the strike of Wimbledon in 1973 and talking of all the stands that Billie Jean King took. But I think all of those were incremental and part of negotiations, meetings, pressure. If you don't, we're going to do this now because you're not meeting us. And now we're going to do this. I suspect that's how those things unfold. but ultimately if the slams really did dig their heels in and decide, sorry, no, we're just not going to, then in the end they will have to show their teeth in a far more meaningful way in the future if they really want to get what they want.

1:00:05David Law:It'll be interesting to see how hard the slams do dig their heels in.

1:00:10Catherine Whitaker:And whether they all dig in together to the same degree.

1:00:14Matt Roberts:So I think it's Roland Garros that the players are meeting with tomorrow night and then the US Open and Wimbledon have meetings scheduled later in the fortnight. I think the Australian Open is sitting tight.

1:00:28David Law:They've got a while to wait.

1:00:30Matt Roberts:We'll see how these canaries down these mines go and we'll let you know what our plan is.

1:00:40Catherine Whitaker:And then Wimbledon's next to announce its prize money.

1:00:44Matt Roberts:Yeah. Yeah, I mean, that is a very interesting facet to it, the fact that the slams themselves aren't united. It does feel a bit to me like, you know, calling a strike by saying, we're only going to work our contracted hours, not a moment over. I'm going home at 5 p.m. That's not a strike.

1:01:09Matt Roberts:It's just doing precisely what you're paid to do. she's doing the bare minimum millions of people are doing that every day some tennis players I mean quite a lot of them by no means all or even the majority but there are tennis players that say to communications managers after the match when they come to them with their list of requests and say oh what am I contractually obliged to do I'll do that that's really common what's

1:01:40David Law:quite funny when we realised that the demand was 15 minutes to represent the 15 % that they're getting as the proportion of revenue and then we realised not one player's press conference has ever gone to 15 minutes that any of us can remember.

1:01:55Matt Roberts:It's going to be an interesting day. I'm sort of quite excited.

1:02:01Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, something new, something different.

1:02:04Matt Roberts:Keep us on our toes. Yeah, we will be back tomorrow with a show.

1:02:09David Law:Yeah, we don't know what's going to be in it. Don't know what's going to be in it. But we'll let you know.

1:02:13Matt Roberts:But we will be back. Folks, the time has come to unveil our mascot for Roland Garros, 2026. It is a returning Roland Garros mascot. It is one of my legacy faves. It is Bashir the cat. Bashir that my mum fell so in love with, she demanded I source some pictures so that my mum could do a portrait. and a beautiful portrait. It is a truly stunning cat. You will want to see pictures of this cat, trust me. And Bashir's full introduction and details and photos will be in Saturday's preview show and in Sunday's newsletter. So thank you, Bashir, and lovely Elise, Bashir's owner, who is always bringing Matt dates.

1:03:03Catherine Whitaker:We love that.

1:03:04Matt Roberts:Multiple grand slams around the world. Matt has received premium dates from Elise. So thank you, Elise. It is great to have you and Bashir back on board. We also have our mascots in tow with us for this Grand Slam, putting up with us. We have Bodhi, Maisie, and Roger. Hello to you. And just on the subject of Roger, Carrie, if you're listening, and I hope you're listening, Carrie. I know you're a big Alcaraz fan, but I hope you're listening regardless. Don't desert us. Carrie is Roger's owner, and Carrie sent me just the loveliest little care package for no reason other than being lovely in the post the other day.

1:03:44Matt Roberts:I opened it just before coming out here, and it was just the loveliest thing. So thank you, Carrie. Hello to our top folks and executive producers, Greg, Chris and Jeff. Matt, let's have some Ronald Garros shout-outs.

1:03:58Catherine Whitaker:We have Koda Farha from Sydney, Australia.

1:04:03Matt Roberts:Hello, Coda.

1:04:04Catherine Whitaker:Hi, Coda. Coda says, I named my cat Dasher after Kasachina.

1:04:09Matt Roberts:Oh, that's superb. Isn't that great?

1:04:12Catherine Whitaker:Kasachina was a name that jumped in.

1:04:14Matt Roberts:Yeah, in the Sabalenka section.

1:04:15Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, has Sonmez round one. I bet that's a good atmosphere. Good match.

1:04:20Matt Roberts:Yeah. Oh, that's lovely. Coda in, I forget what language it is, but it means a friend to everyone. A friend to everyone. So, and Coda is our friend officially. So that works. Hey. Thank you, Coda.

1:04:36Catherine Whitaker:We also have Alison LeMay. Oh.

1:04:40Matt Roberts:Hi, Alison. Well, that works as well.

1:04:42Catherine Whitaker:Alison says, we split our time between New York City and Washington, Connecticut. And Alison says, I've been listening since before the days of Grad Mat. My husband and I are heading towards retirement, and our goal is to start working our way through the slams. That is the way, Alison. Only Australia left. And the thousands and five hundreds. At least one per year for the rest of our lives.

1:05:08Matt Roberts:Brilliant. Alison. I love that. Best imaginable retirement plan. Listener since pre-Matt. And now she's made it to the Spanish Matt era.

1:05:21Catherine Whitaker:What a trooper. David and I met Luke earlier today, who'd been listening since 2012. And since episode 12, was it? Episode 12 in 2012, I think.

1:05:32Matt Roberts:Wow. Thank you, Luke. Thank you, Alison.

1:05:40Catherine Whitaker:And finally, we have Thomas from New York, but originally from Belgium. Like Muster.

1:05:47Matt Roberts:Hello, Thomas. Like Fual.

1:05:49Catherine Whitaker:Yes. Very good.

1:05:51David Law:Who's a new fave in waiting.

1:05:54Catherine Whitaker:And Thomas sent his shout-out in the week Medvedev won Dubai and says, as Medvedev wins his first repeat title on a walkover, brackets legend, I would love to give a big shout-out to two dear pod listener friends, Simone and Mark, with whom I attended the feverish Medvedev-Lopez match at the 2019 US Open.

1:06:18Matt Roberts:Oh, my. What a match to have attended. He was...

1:06:22Catherine Whitaker:He was sending Medvedev to sleep at night. Oh.

1:06:28Matt Roberts:What a thing to have been there for. Thomas, that is absolutely iconic. You've shared in a piece of important tennis history there. So thank you. Thomas, Simone, Mark, Alison and Coda, thank you ever so much for being friends of the Tennis Podcast. We are part of the Athletic Podcast Network. We are here for the next 17 days. whatever they may hold. Do come along on the Roland Garros ride with us. Thank you for listening. We'll speak to you tomorrow.