Live from Wimbledon - Men’s final preview

0:10Hello and welcome to the Tennis Podcast live from Wimbledon and presented by Barclays, the official banking partner of Wimbledon. It is the final day of the Championships 2026 men's singles final day. And it is that men's singles final between defending champion Yannick Sinner and French Open champion Alexander Zverev that we are here to preview. And we're doing it with the help of the Athletics' Ava Wallace. Ava, thank you for joining us this morning. We have already given a lot of takes on this men's singles final. The floor is yours. We have more to come, but it's yours that we're most keen to hear.

0:49And I have just received the bombshell news that the premise of a lot of our takes yesterday, the controversial IBM win predictor that was putting Zverev at 60 % has had a rethink. Okay. 60 %? It was putting Zverev at 60 % chance of winning. It is now putting Sinner at 60 % chance of winning. I think it's important to be able to admit when you've made a mistake. And I applaud the IBM win predictor for this. Did they just have the wrong name on the roster? Was that like the number didn't change? You have to wonder, right? Does 60 % to Sinner sound right to you? It sounds a little low to me, honestly.

1:33I have felt so undecided. I keep going back and forth. And then I just keep remembering sitting at home watching that Madrid final. and just being like, whoa, this is taken on a new level of what is going on here. I don't think it's going to be anything like that. I think Zverev has so much more belief in himself, and I think he has the game to back up that belief, but I don't know how I can possibly pick him in this matchup. Matt Futterman said a really great thing to me earlier this week, actually before, so this may be telling, before Sabalenko's soccer, where he said, I'm really bad at predicting things that haven't happened before.

2:11I was like, that makes a lot of sense. That's kind of feels like where I am. I can't, I don't feel comfortable predicting something that hasn't happened in three years. Right. Yeah. The Madrid final is so haunting. Like if you're a Zverev fan, and I know he's had the back procedure since then. And he, you know, as much as winning the French Open does seem to have changed him mentally, I do think that his back had been troubling him for a while. and it does seem like that German doctor whose number I'm keen to find out does seem like he was maybe a miracle worker. So things have changed since then, but he was so defeated so early on in that match.

2:51It was haunting from a sort of Zverev in this matchup perspective, I think. Yeah, and I kind of feel as though Zverev was almost beating himself in a couple of these matches started by sinner because sinner seems to shake him to his boots early it's it's like two heavyweight boxers coming into the ring and one of them lands early and the other one's like oh okay well this isn't what i'd planned for and and i just don't think it's very of us being able to get into a mental space and if you look at it nine matches in a row and the last half dozen not even not even close one close set in like 12 and that was a 7-6 in in Miami and and it's just as though the the belief has just drained from him within minutes and you've got him talking to his sports team and saying I don't I don't know how to play him you know because all the things he nor as rare normally does that work against everybody else even Alcaraz, they don't work against Sinner.

3:54He just wrong-foots you. He puts you off balance. There is still a way to get Zverev off balance. It's hardly surprising. He's 6 '6". You know, he's an incredible mover for his size. He's an incredible mover generally, but if you can wrong-foot him, and that's not easy to do, but Sinner is the master of it. The only thing is I do feel like this is the first time he's played since winning Roland Garros, and Zverev's belief has never been higher than right now. so is that a difference maker is there a way that he can insulate himself by holding early and getting into the match i still think there's a chance that sinner could break him early and all those demons come back and and and it's one-sided i think i think one-sided is is one of the scenarios the other one to me is one set all with two tight sets and then a bit of a dog fight but but but i think that in the end my most likely scenario is once at all and then sinner streaks away um but but i think and it will be interesting because we had the fritz turnaround for zverev the other day now that was injury assisted but it was still a heck of a difference um as in terms of what they'd had before so yeah it's interesting the high bounce is definitely helping Zverev at this Wimbledon, right?

5:16Sort of looking back at his previous Wimbledon record and how relatively poor it's been to the other slams, hadn't been past the fourth round, hadn't beaten a seeded player here. It's been such a hot Wimbledon. He's a tall guy. The bounce has been higher than usual. I think that all kind of stands to reason, right? Yeah, and I think getting through those early rounds when it particularly stays low on the fresh grass and he had to navigate quite a tricky opening match against Alexander Blocks. I remember we were watching that in the media room and it was delaying Serena Williams coming onto court.

5:51How long ago does that feel? Wow. And at the time I remember thinking Zverev might be in a bit of a bind here. Blocks is playing quite well, he's serving big. But he got through that match, crucially, and has grown in confidence and with performance since then. And yeah, he's been very impressive against Le Hetschke and Fritz, who are good grass court players. But the thing is, he's played no one in this run that he's had recently, winning the French Open and reaching the Wimbledon final like Sinner. I mean, there isn't really anyone like Sinner, especially when Alcaraz is out. I think there's definitely a chance that he just gets hit with that level early on here that he hasn't faced and could lose belief again.

6:38I mean, some more stats on this. Sinner's won 14 sets in a row against him. Only the one tie break, as David said, and six of those sets have been 6-love, 6-1 or 6-2. Zverev also hasn't broken Sinner's serve in their last six meetings, and he's only created three break points against him this year in a handful of meetings. So all of that is just so on Sinner's side here. and had Sinner not performed like he did in the semi-final, I might have been coming into this with more doubt because I wasn't that convinced by Sinner through the tournament but he showed that the level's there against Djokovic and I think he's going to bring it and it's going to be up to Zverev to see whether his newfound confidence, his newfound game style, he can actually bring that to bear.

7:28He's the one with all the questions to answer, I think, Zverev. Pre-Djokovic demolition, Ava, how concerned were you about Zverev's form? Did you always think he was just playing as well as he needed to and would turn it on when he needed to? No, I was totally unsure because you guys, everyone, we were all talking about this kind of wobbly forehand. He was talking about how he wasn't happy with it. You said he wasn't convincing. He didn't really have to be convincing. It's so funny how that one Djokovic match can turn things because it's like, okay, well, now he looks like he's been reserving energy and holding everything in, and he looks brilliant for it, whereas that really could have gone the other way.

8:06I think it's also, it's so funny. We're all defaulting to what Zverev can do. I think Sinner's going to be really motivated to come out and win this thing. I keep forgetting, oh, yeah, there is that guy on the other side of the net who's mentally probably not, obviously not in the same space that Zverev is in terms of he's trying to beat this guy and all this thing, but he does not want to go into the last Grand Slam of the year, having not won one yet. And he doesn't want to be in a world number one that doesn't currently hold a slam. Right, exactly, yeah. So I think he's going to be equally as motivated, if not more.

8:37I mean, it would be so wild if we came out of today's match with Zverev holding two slams and Sinner holding none. A channel slam? A new, complicated king of the sport? That's like a whole... It's way beyond a headline. That's a very big story all of a sudden that we have to like seriously tackle and consider and it's quite interesting in a lot of ways and quite troubling in many others. Complicated king of the sport. Yeah. That is quite a way to put it I think and that sums it up because you know we spoke a lot at Roland Garros about how certainly our audience feels a mixture of complicated feelings about Alexander's verve because of the court case he had a couple of years ago because of the allegations none of which have been proved all of which he's denied but which hang there yeah yeah he his name was booed wasn't it when during the arthur ferry interview after the quarterfinal it was you're going to play alexander zverev big boos was that what kind of booze would they have booed any any name any person that was going to be facing Arthur Ferry?

9:51Most people, yes. So you think the reception is going to be fine for Zverev? Have you ever been or heard of a pantomime, Ava? Yeah. Sorry. I don't know. Ava knows who Cliff Richard is now. I do. I've had my British education for an hour every morning. They sounded like pantomime booze, but I think there were also people in that audience that do know the story, and they've probably seen Zverev attack an umpire's chair and think that is awful. And so there'll be some people who would have used that as a loaded opportunity to boo his name. But I think the majority was a reaction to its Arthur Ferriere's opponent.

10:30And it didn't carry over into the match, did it? I mean, there was big support for Ferriere, obviously, but it wasn't in any way sort of hostile towards Ferriere. What's country like for these two in terms of the athletics audience? Obviously, you write about Coco Gauff. you know how that's going to do. Presumably Carlos Alcaraz, similar, and like U.S. players, I'm imagining. Ben Shelton probably does pretty well. Naomi Ossoff. You know, the normal big mega superstar. I mean, Alexialla, we're just learning. We've had our first A-A-A-A-Bounce. Yeah, the A-A-A-A-Bounce. That's a nice way to put it.

11:06And the answer is probably not right to put these two in the same category. It's probably very different. But Ciner and Zverev, how do they rank? I'm not actually sure. I do spend most of my time kind of not on purpose writing about the women. Right. So I'm not I'm not actually sure the cut through on that. That's interesting, though. It is a game we kind of play, certainly with my friends when they're watching on TV or I get to a tournament of like, you wonder how many people in the crowd are aware of the backstory of everything. Because, I mean, how many athletes have we all covered that have troubling backgrounds?

11:38And it's like people have no a lot of people have no idea. Yeah, I tend to think at Wimbledon, people are a little bit more, a lot more informed about tennis. Do you? That's interesting. But like when he goes and plays at the US Open and it's that massive crowd, I think probably the majority of people in that stadium don't really have any idea. I think our readership is pretty tuned in, but I don't know. One of the pieces you did write, I think it was you and Charlie, actually, about men's tennis this week was about, I think it was called A Bottom Half Full of Opportunity. And it's like, oh, okay.

12:12Well, the second seed ended up coming through that half. I loved the way, as time went on, you crossed out. So you wrote the piece. That's what they deserve. The piece was first published at what stage of the tournament? Oh, gosh. It was the... Was it before the quarterfinals? Before the fourth round, I think. Before the fourth round. So it was Alex de Menor was still in there. Ben Shelton had already gone. Didn't even make the article. Yeah. but who else would have been in there? Taylor Fritz would have still been in there and it was looking at this bottom half which of course had Zverev in it but who had never really done much at Wimbledon before and it was like who of this chasing pack is going to respond to the opportunity just like the conversation we had in Paris of Carlos Alcaraz not being around has it surprised you how poorly the chasing pack has responded to that opportunity at these two slams?

13:05It hasn't surprised me because I think at the French Open, sitting in Felix Ogialia seems press conference after. And I started saying, OK, or thinking to myself, there's a separation here between men's tennis players who have been almost conditioned to think that there's a ceiling that they're going to bump up against. and someone like Flavio Caboli, who just sees blue sky above him and is not traumatized and has no, like, history with the big three or history with, yeah. I think there's so much time left. I do wonder if that's, if we're going to start seeing more of that. Alex de Menard was kind of like that in his loss here.

13:47He was playing the Felix role of being, whoa, I'm not where I want to be, I'm not where I thought I was going to be, and I'm really bumping up against that now. So no, it isn't really surprising to me to see that Zverev, the one who's proven that he can do it, who really is delusional enough to think he can be that guy. And I mean delusional in an athletic way, not in a bad way, but yeah. I kind of feel like I've been deceived by these two slams that we've had without Alcaraz because the feel of them has been this, I don't know whether you agree, but on the men's side, I felt a huge sense of jeopardy and what's going to happen and anyone can win this thing kind of thing.

14:28You know, especially at the French Open. But even here, given Sinner's unconvincing form, Zverev had not shown this form on grass before this tournament. Djokovic was doing his thing. You know, it felt like, OK, this is an open tournament. And actually, all that's happened is there was one very hot day in Paris and that has taken Yannick Sinner out. And otherwise, I feel like we probably would have had back-to-back Cine-Zvera finals, which had been happening throughout the whole season when Alcaraz wasn't around. And there's been this feeling of, oh, it's different, because there's just been this space in the draw without Alcaraz.

15:07But actually, OK, we saw Caballi come through on the Cine side of the draw in Paris, and he did very well to do that. But actually, it's kind of been the status quo still. We've still got Sino, we've still got Zverev, we've still had Djokovic in the semis, and a few guys have had moments, but no one has seized this period and said, right, when there's a chance, it's going to be me who grabs it. Have the Americans not surprised you slightly in that regard? Tiafoe, Shelton? I was surprised at Francis Tiafoe not making a deeper run here because he had been playing so well. Me too, I know. I know, and we're from the same hometown, so we were behind him.

15:53Does that mean Shelton doesn't surprise you, his full performance here in Paris? Well, you know what it was? Was I yelling at you during that match in the video room? I think I was. I was like, he's too much emotion. The first set when he started really, you know, I don't mean this in a derogatory way, but like college tennising and pumping himself up I was like ooh that's that's too much too soon my guy like you know act like you've been here before because he has been here before so but yeah he surprised me a little bit Francis couldn't hold on to the run I think they'll be thinking about that for a while by the way how crazy is tennis Otto Werthinen who beat Ben Shelton has already lost to someone around like 600 and something in the world this week of course he has yeah what a wild that couldn't be more Oscar than Otto Werthinen where has that happened where has tennis been happening?

16:42I'll find out. You worked on that. I saw that Paola Bedosa won Borschtad? Gestad. Borschtad? One of those two. I saw a picture of her holding a trophy and I said, ah, good for you. Yeah, thanking the physio. Lovely stuff. Thrilled for you. Had no idea that was happening. Paola Bedosa thanking the physio. We had a debate on the show a couple of nights ago about Matt and David whether you would take Zverev's serve or Sinner's serve.

17:13who's would you like because zverev is serving a bit better right like his numbers are a bit higher his first serve percentage is always astonishing for somebody with a serve that big he does tend to have the highest first serve percentage kind of always whose serve was also higher all day yesterday karolina muhova so i'll take center how about that yeah it's funny though isn't it because you would probably say like the one shot that you would well okay let's do this shot by shot whose would you take whose backhand would you take that's a very good question yeah that i would probably take zverev's would you yeah yeah yeah matt's not sure backhand boy over here they're both great.

18:03I know. That's such a cop-out. Yeah. You just hope they both have fun. Both backhands have a nice time. Tennis is the winner. Backhands are the winner. I feel like in an exchange I would take Zverev's but like the ability to hit it on the run you know like the ability to do that that you know I close my eyes I picture Sinner like doing the splits in the corner on his backhand side like Djokovic style that's what happens when you close your eyes I mean genuinely yeah I think I'll go Sinner you know okay just on that as well I think I think the difference is and this is a this is an interesting battleground for today's match is what does Zverev do about that backhand?

18:54Because what he wants to do is settle in and win a backhand-to-backhand exchange because I do think nobody hits it deeper and more clean than Zverev and more reliably deep. But Sinner doesn't allow that. He goes down the line. He will go down the line early in rallies. And I always remember a chat with Dan Evans about what separates Sinner and Alcraz from everybody else he says they will go down the line earlier than anyone else and they they open up the court and they don't want to get into one of these exchanges and and increasingly this year zvereva said look i don't want to do that either and he's trying to sort of reprogram himself as this guy who pulls the trigger but sin has got it innately it's it's embedded in him he would he he has no fear of pulling the trigger down the line early in a rally and then you're not in your backhand tobacco exchange then you've got to scamper over to your forehand it's a totally different rally than sinner has against sorry than zveriv has against the rest such a great point okay let's let's let's do the formalities forehand sinner yep that's sinner on a dodgy week um 50 i'll take it right good enough uh movement volley

20:15that's 50-50 to me I actually think I think Zverev should be up there way more because he's he's so difficult to pass and he's his overhead is so good he will turn anything to an overhead like wingspan you only need to be good you don't need to be a great volleyer I think for it to be worth worth your while getting there Ziner's assertive with it all that's the difference he instigates it all It kind of so often comes back to the point, Matt, that you made about the serve the other night, which was, the thing is, it's Sinner hitting these shots. Yeah. That's what I want. I want Sinner hitting all of these.

20:50Yeah, like you might take Zverev's backhand technically if it was Sinner hitting it, like Sinner's head making the decisions. Yeah, can I say like defensive volley, Zverev? Attacking volley, Sinner? And that tells you a lot, I guess. Yeah, yeah. Drop shot, Sinner? I think that's it. I think he has this wingspan and can make it work. He can sometimes win points that you think, wow, how has he reached that? You know, nobody else is reaching that. But, yeah, I mean, when you get onto drop shots, I think it's comfortably seen it. Like, he's become, in less than a year, if you think back to that U.S.

21:25Open final, press conference we all attended, when he said, I'm going to add variety. And he's added one of the better drop shots on the tour inside a year. Like that. Yeah. Very quickly, just to go back, obviously this is a men's final preview, and we're talking about someone that's out of the tournament, but I just wanted to get your Djokovic takes, because when we had you on the show before the French Open, I was so confident. Your Djokovic takes really stuck with me, but I think they were accurate, right? Like, he's going to die on the court if he needs to, and he pretty much did against Joel Fonseca, and he came up against a kid and it wasn't enough.

22:04where do you leave this tournament feeling about Novak Djokovic have any of your Djokovic related feelings changed as a result of what you've seen this fortnight from him no I think and you guys I think you guys had a nice discussion about it whatever day that was that you talked about it I can't remember anymore but I where you said is this enough for him to feel like he's done enough this year I would have to think it is um especially if you said wind assistance I said gosh that's a great phrase from Catherine. If he can get a little bit of help in the draw and the right moment, like, I do think he can do it if he doesn't get Felix in the quarters and instead gets...

22:42It being win more? Yeah. Win 25? I think he's, oh, winning 25, I don't know. Not 25 more. 25 more? Yeah, sure, why not? No. Number 25. If he... So what is it? I don't think he's getting 25. I think he's comfortable with where he is right now. Like that very long press conference, he didn't seem burning up with why can't I do this and aging is so unfair as we've seen him before. And it wasn't like, yeah, he got me. I'll come back next year. He was just like, yeah, did pretty well. He's never going to say he's happy there, but I have to think he's going to keep going and keep trying. And maybe if things fall the right way, he gets one.

23:24Like, I don't think this is going to be the only opportunity he had. I think it was right now we can say it was his best opportunity. I think he will have more good opportunities. The mood music isn't hugely reassuring about Alcaraz and the U.S., is it? Right, and also these guys have shown they're going to miss some slams. They're going to be conservative with their bodies because you can see now that, okay, I can play until 40, so why I don't have maybe the same urgency that other people had in their careers. So, yeah, I think he might get another good shot. Was Serena trying to tease a Serena Alcaraz mixed doubles partnership yesterday?

24:00Did you see that? I think it's certainly what she wanted to imply. So he posted the carousel of sort of comeback material. She doesn't have time for Carlos Alcaraz's antics. What? Hang on. What are Carlos Alcaraz's antics? She just, just like he's, you know, he's wearing the backwards ball cap. He's grown out of his hair. I don't think Serena wants that. I don't know. Maybe she does. But I can't. I mean, you guys have caught me speaking with. Who would you like to see Serena play with? Grigor. She's, you know, go and do the, go and do the fun and have the comedy hour and like, you know, get us all whispering.

24:40Like, yeah. Okay. Nobody loves Grigor Dimitrov. For all the people who love Grigor Dimitrov as much as they do, nobody loves him more than the Williams sisters. Like, they're just like, that's my guy through and through. Come on. That's fun. Did you see Venus at the football last night? I did. I looked up and there she was sipping champagne and I said, don't you? Yeah. Yeah. Great. It was good. Although all the other Wimbledon champions here, she's like, I've been there in the Royal Box before. And I smove her with golf in an England shirt. I know. It was Miami, the place to be in July. Who knew?

25:09Yeah, apparently, apart from the weather. Yeah. Predictions time has come, folks. I know you're all going to go for Sinner, so I'd like something a bit more... Different prediction. Detailed than that. Detailed and specific, please. And Matthew, I am going to come to you as well. So just think about it. How do you, how do you, I would like to hear from the experts how you guys think the crowd is going to go and if Zverev's going to, if we're going to see some crankiness today. I think Sinner is really popular here. Okay. I do not, I mean, apart from the Zverev of it all, and I don't, I agree with you that I don't think it'll, I think the majority probably won't know about the troublesome backdrop to Alexander Zverev, but he's just not the character or the tennis player that Yannick Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz is, obviously, you know, each to their own.

26:04But it did strike me how 50-50 the crowd were in the final here last year. Generally, when it's Alcaraz-Sinner, it's not overwhelming. It's not like, you know, Federer-Jokovic. Yeah, yeah, yeah. but generally Al Graz gets it but it was pretty 50-50 here last year I do think Sin is very Wimbledon I think he's going to have a lot of support today Is that going to get to Zverev do you think? Well he played Arthur Ferry last time but then the thing is he stamped down on Arthur Ferry quite early and after that first set the air came out of that match and out of the crowd a bit I think what's going to get to Zverev is if he if he loses a game on his serve quite early that's the real danger for him that all the things that he's had experiences over the last year against Sinner come flooding back because nobody's done that to him no you know he's he's he's actually started slow in the first set in quite a lot of matches Ferov has but nobody's punished him for it you know he just hasn't lost a first set as as far as I can remember.

27:16And that would be a different experience for him, particularly because it's this guy. And he doesn't want to get embarrassed. And I think the fear of embarrassment could cause the embarrassment. Potentially. I actually don't think that's going to happen on balance. I think Zverev is going to stay with him because of the serve. And actually, I think he's going to win the first set on the tie break and Zverev is going to come back. but I also think that my second most likely scenario is that Sinner just destroys him. David, do you think there's any chance, we haven't talked about it, but any chance for Zverev to push this long and bring two things into play, which is Sinner's record in long matches and the potential, given the late start time, for a final set under a roof?

28:07Yeah, I think those things are possible. To me, that's his best chance of winning. Would that be your team talk with Zverev in a world where you're giving Alexander Zverev? I'm so tired. Don't do that. What time's your flight tomorrow? Noon, which is like early to me. But the thing is, I don't know how he gets it to that point. Holding serve. But I guess it's how that is. If you keep holding serve, you can take it long. He has to make every set close, even if he loses it. But the thing is, his new tennis DNA that he's trying to bed in, and we're going to see tested today, is to not be the grinder that hangs in as long as he can.

28:46But I think he can grind, and then he'll just get hit off the court, and he won't actually extend it because it won't be close. I think the way to extend it is actually to play more aggressively if he can and keep the score close and keep the sets long. I just don't know if he can do that. 4pm he's got to get to 8. I think 8 starting the final set. They did close it once at 7.30. Yeah, something like that. I mean, it's not impossible. It's one of my slight frustrations about the late start time, knowing that it could finish under the roof just for darkness, and I really don't like that. But I think my prediction is Sinner in 4.

29:32with maybe one close set. I don't think the heat is enough today, particularly given the start time for that to be a factor. Maybe if it was starting at 2 o 'clock, it's very hot in the sun, but the air temperature is pretty nice sitting here with my hair clapping around everywhere. You couldn't use that as a strategy today, I don't think. No, the heat. The heat. I think it's an interesting one of the fact that Sin has never won a match beyond 3 hours 48 but I do think that that is kind of debunked by the 5 hour 29 he played against Alcaraz and lost out by one point so I don't think you could chance that yes you want to keep the score close because you don't want to get broken and see the thing tail away from you but I think you've got to feel I think if you're Svarov you've got to think I need to play well and try to outplay this guy whether he can do it is another matter I think we're, I think, I feel like it's going to be over in three.