US Open Day 12 - Top two set up blockbuster women’s final

20:25Matt Roberts:Pagula joked in her press conference, Matt, about how maybe she'd angered Irina Sabalenka And she said, I don't know why she and her team hate me or she hates me and my team. We're nice people. She was joking. But she was playing like she was angry.

20:47Matt Roberts:And maybe I've not totally read Rina Sabalenka wrong, but kind of drawn the wrong conclusions from how I've interpreted her over the past couple of weeks. Like, she is on edge. She is a bit chippy. She is trying to prove something that maybe doesn't need proving. But rather than it making her a bit over it all, it's making her, well, in her own words, desperate for the win. She used that word, I was desperate for the win today. Yeah, I mean, we talked about that thin line that she always walks and I think we were probably all thinking she'd just be on the wrong side of it and it would spill over into frustration and errors and getting in her own way.

21:38But actually what we've seen I think in certainly the last two matches since her draw has got tough against Noska and Pagula, how she's actually used whatever pissed off energy she's been feeling and channeled it into some absolutely brilliant tennis. I mean, this was a performance that belongs alongside the ones she's, you know, produced when she's kind of dominated at the Australian Open.

22:07Catherine Whitaker:You know, that's kind of what it felt like to me today. And there is this incredible stat from Opta that she's the first player, male or female, in the Open era to reach eight consecutive Grand Slam finals on a hard court. that is what Irina Sabalenka has put together now surpassing seven reached by Steffi Graf Martina Hingis and Novak Djokovic I mean obviously the open era there have been times in the open era where the tournaments were played on, that are now played on hard court were played on grass or even clay here for a little bit but still that is an incredibly impressive feat and you know I think it does go to show how yes, the tour form is very important and we can read a lot into that, but she just deserves so much respect and credit for that Grand Slam record.

23:02Catherine Whitaker:You know, I've been banging the drum for Pagula this year because of her tour form. Well, we saw the difference between them tonight in terms of just Sabalenka's just got a level to go to that most players can't reach and she saves it for these hard-court majors. That is where she plays her best stuff. And once again, she's doing it at the US Open. Four consecutive finals at the US Open. You know, the end of season major where everyone's tired and exhausted and it feels like it should be really hard to be consistent here. And yet Sabalenka is the most consistent player here.

23:44Matt Roberts:It feels unfair to draw too many Pagula conclusions from this match because I feel like anybody and everybody would have lost to this version of Arena Sabalenka tonight. But as the Pagula guy, Matt, how do you feel about Pagula generally? Can you see a world where you're picking her to win another Grand Slam in the future? Not just putting her in the mix. I'm sure we'll put her in mixes. but picking her to win one. Can I see a world where I'm wrong again in the future? Absolutely. I can definitely see that, getting carried away by something. I mean, look, that whole pick was predicated on a lot of things that didn't end up happening.

24:33David Law:You're making it worse. You know, like, as I said, I thought Sapolanka might be, for once, burnt out by the US Open, because I really thought that she was going to have a strong French Open, and Wimbledon and that totally didn't happen. Then I thought she'd be playing this tournament without her best form because of what we've seen over the past few months. That didn't happen either. And yeah, like I'm not deluded enough to think that Pagula at her best is better than Sabalenka at her best. And if you told me that Sabalenka was going to play her best, I wouldn't have thought that Pagula would beat her.

25:12but I look I think I think generally as you said she's probably going to keep being in mixes for Grand Slams I think she must look at some of the people that have won Grand Slams and think god I'm right there with them most of the time why can't I break through that's kind of been part of how I've seen it she's got several shots a year I would say because she's good on the grass as well and she's good on the two hard court majors so she's constantly giving herself chances but yes there remains people as much as she can as much as i do think pagula can kind of beat anyone you know like generally it doesn't take a huge drop off for pagula to be able to beat someone there also remains a few people who just have a ceiling i think that is higher than Pagula and yeah normally normally one of those people show up at the slam with that ceiling and Pagula can't get through but you know I don't think she's going to go away We'll have more chance tomorrow to properly preview the women's final which will be played night session on Saturday but do you agree

26:31Matt Roberts:with my sort of slightly glib take that although I do stand by it that this will be a bit of a grudge match, certainly for Sabalenka. Sabalenka wants to prove I am still the best player in the world. You might have taken my crown, but it is my crown that you've temporarily borrowed. Yeah, I think so. I do think the main motivation, though, is... Not being slamless. Yeah, not being slamless. She talked about if it was going to be Coco in the final, She would want revenge because of what happened here a few years ago in the final. I think she will want revenge on Rebecca for the Australian Open final as well.

27:16You know, I think there's a lot that goes into it. But, yeah, I think that could be a good thing for Sabalenka to channel that, given everything we've just said. Like, she can channel those sorts of things in an incredibly effective way. So, yeah, go for it, Irina, and bring that energy to the final. It will probably serve her well. She is an alpha. She wants to be the one. She wants to be number one. She wants to be the most powerful player on the court. She doesn't want to be knocked around by somebody else. She just cannot deal with that. So she's going to go out there and try to take your head off.

27:57And the thing with Rebecca in her is she can quietly stand up to it.

28:02David Law:I mean, even if it's just her sort of cleanliness of ball strike, she's able to kind of rebound and retaliate against that power. And she's able to inject her own. So she, I think, has this ability to send Sabalenka sometimes over the edge, make her so frustrated because there's somebody down the other end who's doing what she's supposed to be doing. so I personally wouldn't use grudge match as the word but I think it's on Sabalenka's side she's the one who wants to prove to everybody all these things I don't think Rebecca is built like that

28:43Matt Roberts:I think it's a one sided grudge match definitely

28:46David Law:I think Rebecca just wants to win the title and just wants to I think she loves winning she loves being a perfectionist she loves this quiet competition the way she goes about it, but it's tenacious as well. And, yeah, I'm endlessly fascinated by what's going on in her head when she's playing, because I can't read anything other than the little bits of frustration here and there. But, yeah, they do tend to have great matches. They do. So I'm hopeful. Yeah, I mean, their Indian Wells final is maybe the match of the year, certainly up there. Their two Australian Open finals have been very compelling as well.

29:30I think the first one was better, but this year's was good too. And yeah, I can't wait.

29:38Catherine Whitaker:It's a brilliant Grand Slam final to have ahead of us. And I do like the different ways they produce their power. I always find that really great to watch, the effortful nature of Arena Sabalenka's. And the more effortless nature of Rabatkin is a great contrast. And there'll be no worries about, you know, there's no worries about anyone needing to settle. There's not even really a big sort of crowd element, you know. Like I think Sabalenka might be the slight favourite for the crowd. But equally, I think some people get a bit of a kick out of seeing Skrambalenka. and when the errors come, that can be quite compelling for people as well.

30:26So it'll just be a tennis match and maybe there's part of me that would have absolutely loved to have an American crowd as a factor in the final,

30:40Catherine Whitaker:but this is fine too. And yeah, I really am struggling to call it, actually. You won't be surprised to hear our predictions for tonight. Probably best place to stay, Matt.

30:51Matt Roberts:You'll find us on the fence for the foreseeable. I mean, we always say this, it's a great session, isn't it? Two high-stakes women's best of three matches. That works in a night session. Finished at about 11.15. Yeah, and how it hasn't caught on to the rest of the tournament and the rest of all the tournaments, and also tomorrow where we have a men's five-set match in the afternoon

31:16David Law:and then one in the evening. how has that not got caught on to be what everybody does if they have night sessions? It's beyond me.

31:25Matt Roberts:Well, because they can sell two separate sessions. The answer's always money.

31:29David Law:But I still think you can sell two separate sessions. You just, for your night session, you have two best of three matches and one or one best of five. And there's no issue. The problem is, for example, last night,

31:42Matt Roberts:one best of five set match, it was a dud. and people leave disappointed. There's so much more variance in length with a best-of-five set match than there is with a best-of-three that it's difficult to rely just on that and not account for... There's no guarantee with professional sports. No, but there are, as I say, there's more variance with best-of-five and that's the problem. They have to plan for it not being enough and then we end up here at 3am. I don't think they do have to plan for it, personally. Nor do I, but that's how they view it. That's how it's viewed. You know what my solution to the problem would be.

32:27Okay, that is it for part two. We'll come back in part three

32:30Matt Roberts:and talk about those two best-of-five set men's singles semifinals. Welcome back to part three of today's tennis podcast. Just before we get into previewing the two men's singles semifinals tomorrow, of the Coco Gauff press conferences dropped. She seems pretty philosophical. I mean, gutted, as we expected, but her ability to kind of process and have perspective in a very short space of time is pretty unmatched, really. She's talking about how the other three semi-finalists are a few years older than her and thinking about the amount of improvement she can make in the space of those three or four years that she's got on all of them.

33:15So, yeah, look, it's gutting because she makes very clear in the press conference that her season centres around the US Open, as much as she cares about the other mages,

33:23Matt Roberts:this is the biggest one for her. So, yeah, it's, you know, she's sad, but she'll be OK. Tough thing on a Saturday, I think, for a player like her. and Ampigula, you know, to just not be in that final, you know, to desperately want to be in it and not to be. Wonder whether they watch it. You know, I imagine they probably don't. You know, you have to try. I mean, I was listening to Taylor Fritz the other day and just wanted to get away from it all for a couple of days. But I don't think it takes them long to get back working hard, these players. OK, looking ahead to tomorrow. And as we thought might happen, they have switched up the order of the two men's single semifinals to make sure that the All-American clash between Francis Tiafoe and Ben Shelton is in the primetime night session slot.

34:21It's not a shock. It is something that has happened once before. And that one previous occasion was when there was an All-American semifinal. So we kind of saw this coming, but it does mean that from midday on the Arthrasch Stadium, it is the women's doubles final. The top seeds, Katarina Sinayakova and Taylor Townsend, going up against the all-American pair of Ashton Kruger and Robin Montgomery. And that is followed not before 3pm by Alexander Zverev and Karen Hashanov. What percentage chance do you give Hashanov here, David? I think on paper I'd give him about a 40 % chance, something like that.

35:02Based on the form that the two of them have been in of late,

35:08David Law:I don't think Zverev's looked that convincing at this tournament. Hashinov has beaten him before on a hard court, and I think he's playing pretty much as well as he can play, Hashinov at the moment. never know which one of which sort of player he's going to come out on in a in a big semi-final he's tended to come up short when he's played these tournament these of these matches before a little bit like jessica pegula has he got another level that he can tap into because i certainly think that's very have got a level that probably hashanov doesn't have but i just think it's like i said i think about 64 i actually think in reality it may end up being closer than that I think I fancy the upset in this one.

35:54Matt Roberts:Would you both agree that it perhaps favours Hashanov a little bit in the semi-final, that it's day session rather than night session, but if Zverev gets through it, this being day session, then favours him for the final, which would also be day session? Definitely, yes. I think it will be a shock to the system for Zverev playing in the day. I imagine as well he's probably been... Well, I know he's been practicing late as well. You know, he just hasn't been hitting at that sort of time for two weeks. And he talked about how he's been feeling jet lagged and he's going to have to override all of that and be ready for three o 'clock tomorrow, which is, you know, so many hours before he's used to playing at this tournament.

36:40I have to say, I don't think he really liked those night conditions, though. I think hot and sticky. It felt like he was a bit uncomfortable in those conditions. Like me right now. If he can adjust, make the body adjustment, maybe he can actually get his tennis going a little bit more. I think he's going to do that thing of playing well enough to win. I'm not really expecting from where he's been this tournament, I don't think we're suddenly going to see Wimbledon form from Zverev. I'd be very surprised if that happened.

37:21Matt Roberts:That's the thing. He was playing that way all the way through Wimbledon, wasn't he? Yeah, exactly. That was one of the best tournaments he's ever played, for sure. The French Open was a bit more like this, where he wasn't getting dragged into the really, really long matches that he had at the front end of this tournament there, but he wasn't fully convincing, and he had a pretty kind draw, and he made the most of it. and that's similar to what he's done here. And, you know, it was Mensik in the semis at Roland Garros. It's Hachinov here. I could just see something similar. And, you know, for Hachinov, if he gets in a winning position, he's going to have to close.

38:00That's a tough one. You know, closing out anyone to get to your first grandstand final is tough. Closing out Zverev, who you know is just going to keep being there, is very tough as well. So I'm expecting a four or five set win for Zverev. But I do think Hashinov has a chance. Is there an argument based on the head-to-heads

38:29Matt Roberts:that Karin Hashinov is the man left in the draw of the other three with the biggest chance to beat Alexander Zverev? I think there is an argument. and it also feeds into that point about the time zone slot that he's playing tomorrow and then getting used to it for the final.

38:49David Law:His record against both Tiafoe and Shelton is exemplary. He just doesn't lose to left-handers. I mean, I can think of two that he's ever lost to. Lerner Tien and Rafael Nadal. and only Nadal over best of five yeah and then there is Tiafoe who he's who he's always pretty much had his way with and and whereas he's lost two or three matches against Khachanov right-hander bull of a man who's just gonna grind who's put it this way I think if Khachanov plays against the player that Zverev has been for most of this tournament I think Khachanov will win But he might not. He might play way better than that.

39:38David Law:He may play more like the Wimbledon form or the guy that we've seen reach Australian Open Finals, and that will beat Ashnov. But I'm not convinced that that tennis is there just at the moment. So, yeah, I'm going for the upset. Night session, the big one, certainly for the locals. Francis Tiafoe against Ben Shelton, 7pm, under the lights on the Arthur Ashe Stadium. What do you think the match is going to look like? Who do you think is going to win?

40:06Matt Roberts:Who do you think the crowd is going to be with, Matt? It's a very interesting question about the crowd. I don't know. Who have they been with when they've played here before? I'm not fully sure. I think they're just into it, aren't they? I don't know if there is a favourite, really. I think historically, Tiafoe has it here. He's built the relationship with the crowd here. He had that moment. Shelton's newer. still building that relationship. But he had that match two nights ago, which accelerated that build. I mean, a lot of people were asleep. Because no one in America saw it because they're all asleep.

40:43Matt Roberts:But they've seen the headlines. And I think that definitely did have cut through. And that performance from Shelton to beat Alcraz is why I'm going with Shelton in this one. There's absolutely the big question mark of going again and backing up that win. You know, he's felt like he's climbed the mountain and he still hasn't, he's still got two more rounds to go. You know, that is a tall order. I think for some players, I would be really worried about the recovery from that and how physical that match was and how late it finished. I do think the extra day and then playing again at night and just how incredibly physically strong I think Ben Shelton is.

41:29I have fewer worries for him. I think I'm just going with him because of the way he stood up to Alcaraz in big moments. I think his ground stroke baseline game has come on, leaps and bounds. And I just really sort of trusted the business-like face and mode that he's had on in the last couple of rounds, especially against Alcaraz. I think his I think his ceiling is a little bit higher than even Tiafoe playing some of the best tennis of his career so I'm gonna go Shelton David Yeah well I chose Shelton to win the tournament at the outset and I'm not gonna change that obviously I had my little detour when I thought Alkraus was gonna beat him because of what I'd been sort of tempted into seeing by Alkraus' amazingness

42:24David Law:I think I've seen that both of their previous matches I really remember them quite well Amazing that this will be their third meeting here in Shelton's only been on tour this is his fourth year on tour It was the first year that he was really on the tour they played each other and Tiafa came out really flat and it was such a surprise to see the vibes guy getting totally upstaged he'd had his moment the year before against Soundcrafts in that match and I always remember him saying, you know, I'm looking forward to getting out there and Ben will put his big Bugs Bunny ears on and we can go and put on a show.

43:01David Law:And unfortunately for Tiafa, he just came out so flat. And then a couple of years later they played and Tiafa was a completely different guy. He did go down two sets to one in that, but managed to pull it back and win it in five. The next year, I think it was, so 23. Yeah. Yes, that's right. 23 and 24. 24 was the other one. because last year he lost to Jan-Lanar Struff and he was in a terrible state. They did play on US hard courts last year in Washington. Shelton won that one. Yeah, I just feel similar to Madden. I think the ceiling is higher for Shelton and I think that serve can just win you so many cheap points.

43:38David Law:I think he's hitting the ball with such confidence right now. I think he kind of blunts quite a lot of what Tiafoe does because he can stand up to him in the trade now, Maybe in a way that he couldn't in the past. He's got the speed to chase down Tiafoe's drop shots if he's going to start hitting those. So I'm not quite sure how Tiafoe hurts him in quite the same way that he hurts other players. So, yeah, Shelton for me.

44:04Matt Roberts:If it is Verov in the final, who would he rather play? It's such a good question because of the lefty thing. The answer should be Tiafoe, right? But the lefty thing is so big. I think he'd rather... Well, the answer should be Shelton, of who he would rather play, because of the leftiness, I think. But actually, I think he'd rather play Tiafoe. I think this Shelton is different to the Shelton that Zverev's played before. The leftiness is still a thing, but I think this Tiafoe is a little bit different from the one he's played before, but I think the difference is bigger with Shelton. You know, like, he beat Alcaraz.

44:48He faced down Carlos Alcaraz. I know it wasn't... In a fifth set. It wasn't total peak Alcaraz, but it was a very good Alcaraz for parts of that match, including in the fifth set, and Shelton beat him. And he was getting stronger physically as the match went on, and he's just added to his game. He's got so many shots now, And I think he might find ways of keeping away from the patterns

45:15David Law:that have beaten him so comprehensively by Zverev in the past.

45:19Matt Roberts:And the crowd?

45:21David Law:For Tiafos and Shelton? Yeah. I think it'll be split. I kind of hope they're not split. I kind of want them, don't really mind who they're with. Pick a lane. Pick a lane, yeah. Give us a vibe. Honestly, I think whoever's behind, they'll be cheering the other guy to make a comeback and make it an epic. Just longer, more. Yeah. I think they just want to have a fun time. I mean, some people will be passionately behind one or the other, but I think the numbers of them will be pretty evenly split.

45:49Matt Roberts:Can you imagine how many celebrities are going to be in that you haven't heard of, David?

45:53David Law:I mean, you were reeling them off to me. You were sitting behind me, and every time one came up on the screen, I turned around to Catherine, and Catherine told me who it was. And then I had to find out, yeah, now, is that a band or is that a person?

46:05Matt Roberts:Scissor was a real head scratcher for David. We had to have a pronunciation guide for that one. And the thing is, I've got most... You, Michelle Obama, folks, to be clear.

46:16David Law:Yes, I did. First time. Didn't even have to ask. And for the majority, I've got them listed. So I'm going to Google them. And then when I'm talking to my kids, they're going to think I'm really cool. Because I know all about these people. Rosalia. Yeah. Can't quite remember who that one is. And Matt Futterman and me were talking about Rosalia. because he wasn't sure on Rosalia either.

46:35Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, I saw Matt Fassman Googling Rosalia.

46:38David Law:He said, I know... Because I said to him, do you know any of these people? Because, you know, he and I are not dissimilar ages, but he's from this neck of the woods, isn't he? If these were British people, I'd know all of them. No, I wouldn't. But anyway, he seemed to know far more of them than I did. In fact, I know zero of them.

46:57Matt Roberts:I think it's going to be star-studded tomorrow night.

47:01David Law:I'll be so pumped if I do recognise anybody.

47:04Matt Roberts:I think it'll be less star-studded tomorrow day session. I think that's fair to say. Yes. OK, folks, we'll be back tomorrow at the end of those two men's single semifinals to talk about them. We'll talk about the women's doubles final as well. We'll talk about the other tournaments as well that have been going on that we have been keeping an eye on but, well, haven't had the bandwidth to bring you up to date with, quite frankly. But we will over the course of the final few days of this US Open. Don't you worry. And we'll look ahead to the women's singles final on Saturday as well. Let's say a big hello to Leo who had the popcorn out for tonight's women's singles semifinals.

47:48He says women's semis is the best day always. And Leo had his popcorn at the ready for some high quality matches. We hope you enjoyed that, Leo. What a high quality photo shoot dog Leo is. Talk about raising the bar for pet mascots. There are no limits. Absolutely extraordinary. It's the Arena Savalenka of dog poses. Is this a private tennis court that they're taking these photos on? I have so many questions. So many props involved. Extraordinary stuff. Hello to our mascots, Bodhi, Maisie and Roger. Hello to our top folks and executive producers, Greg, Chris and Jeff. Matt, should we have some shout-outs?

48:27It's not pre-midnight. Well, no, we are past my curfew, but the thing I didn't say is that it's also to do with how close to missing the bus we are. And we've actually got some time before the bus, so we're going to do shout-outs. We're going to get through three more. And we start with Anna Bendo from Dublin, Ohio. Hi, Anna.

48:49Matt Roberts:Hello, Anna. Anna says, I've been a listener since 2018 and my husband and I are coming to Wimbledon next year so I can start my first leg of the fan slam and celebrate our 50th birthdays. Oh, so cool. We met somebody today that was completing the calendar fan slam of women's semi-final sessions. Shout out, Sharice. I'm not sure we've heard a slam quite as cool as that. Incredible stuff. But yeah, any kind of fan slam is a wonderful thing. And Anna, we wish you well in your journey. Yeah. Anna Kaninskaya on Bjorn Fratangelo's backhand list. Very good. And Dublin, like where Matt and I went to see Bruce Springsteen.

49:37Matt Roberts:By the way, this is Dublin, Ohio. Well, yeah. But I would have gone there as well to see Bruce Springsteen. There was a moment when you shouted something out about the backhand list during the Rebacchner against Coco. It was ingest. You said Rebacchner was off the backhand list very loudly when she made an error. Oh, she didn't miss a couple of baddons. It's because Matt Futterman was questioning whether Rebecca was on it. And I said, yes, of course. And then she missed the backhand. And I was like, oh, she's off now. But I thought we'd got a big moment. No, no, no, no. I'm not going to knock someone off the backhand list after they've just made a major final and become world number one.

50:16That would have been absolutely insane. That would be a reality check for her, wouldn't it? Thank you, Anna. We also have Celeste Byrne from Sydney, Australia. Hello, Celeste. Hi, Celeste. We don't know anything else about Celeste. Sydney, Australia. I've been watching Melbourne, Australia tonight because that's where the LA Rams were getting a good duffing up. Do you know, on the stairs down from... We were in a logjam with people getting down from the top of Arthur Ashe Stadium this evening and the woman in front of me as we were queuing to go down the stairs had the NFL game up on her phone and they did a wide shot of the MCG and you could see the Rod Laver Arena in this wide shot.

51:03So here we are at the Arthur Ashe Stadium where Craig Tiley is the tournament director looking on a screen where there's NFL happening in Melbourne next to the Rod Laver. It was just... It's all wrong. I felt upside down. There were 100 ,000 people that were loving it. so you know that was right and obviously the LA Rams lost that was also right Celeste I hope you'll have enjoyed this work around of not knowing anything about you and not knowing any tennis players called Celeste thank you very much for being a friend of the pod great name and finally we have Mark A. Prince Jr. from New York hey right Mark hello Mark Mark says as a fan I've completed the career golden slam saw Agassi win the gold medal at the 96 Atlanta Games and the calendar year slam, which Mark did in 2019.

51:58That is good. Prince like the rackets. Yes. How are we spelling Prince? Is it like Freddie Prince Jr.? Yeah. With a Z? No.

52:12Matt Roberts:It's Prince like the racket. Right, OK. I think Freddie Prince Jr. is with a Z. Oh, OK. And the artist formerly known as? Yes. The late Prince. That spelling. And Mark like? With a K. Yeah, like Mark Filipousis. Yeah. And Knowles. Jessica Begula's coach. Mark, Celeste and Anna, thank you very much for being friends of the Tennis Podcast. Just before we go, if you are an NFL fan like David, then the Athletic has got this really cool, new, exciting thing that has already started because the NFL season has already started. It's the Athletic Live. It's presented by Google Gemini and it's their brand new watch along on NFL game days.

53:00It's got all of their biggest and best beat reporters involved and you can become part of the show in the interactive chat on YouTube. and it all has already started. It started on September 8th. So do get involved with that. I did. The Athletic Live, did you? Yeah, yeah, I got in when Seahawks were making their massive comeback last night. We were recording a podcast while that was happening. Multi-screening, Catherine. That's what the kids do these days. I'll have words with you about that. We are part of the Athletic Podcast Network. We will be back tomorrow. Thank you for listening. We'll speak to you then.