In short
2025 US Open draw reaction (women’s focus in Part 1; men’s draw in Part 2), with predictions built around matchups, seed placement, and recent form.
Guests
David (co-host; discusses women’s draw, Osaka, Keys, Sabalenka, Raducanu, and men’s draw including Djokovic/Sinner). Matt (co-host; adds predictions on Osaka, Keys, Sabalenka/Rybakina, and men’s draw including Alcaraz/Shelton and Djokovic/Fritz). No separate guest interviewees are mentioned; both are the podcast hosts.
Key claims
- Iga Swiatek has the best women’s draw among top seeds; early threats look limited.
- Coco Gauff’s draw is “good for early rounds” but her half is tougher later; she’s making a last-minute serve overhaul with biomechanist Gavin McMillan.
- Naomi Osaka is a bullish pick to reach the late rounds, potentially beating Gauff and then Madison Keys.
- Sabalenka’s quarterfinal opponent likely involves Elena Rybakina, with Jasmine Paolini underestimated.
- For men, Carlos Alcaraz should handle Riley Opelka; Jack Draper’s return/inactivity is a key uncertainty.
- Djokovic’s section is favorable; he could beat Taylor Fritz, with Lerner Tien as a tricky opener.
Notable examples
- Gauff: “sudden decision” to work with McMillan; “house money” mindset; Sabalenka said it took her about two weeks to see serve changes.
- Osaka: improved movement after Montreal; Montreal final self-esteem concerns noted by Matt.
- Keys: Venus Williams in round one; debate whether she can repeat a deep run.
- Djokovic: first-round Lerner Tien (4-1 vs top 10 this year); Djokovic criticizes two-week Masters contracts.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOAtmosphere at the US Open
0:16 to 3:50
Discussion about the vibrant atmosphere and contrasting vibes between Wimbledon and the US Open.
“Hello and welcome to The Tennis Podcast and the first of 17 daily pods from the 2025 US Open.”
Analyzing the Women's Draw
3:50 to 6:34
Insightful take on the women's draw and key players to watch, including Iga Swiatek.
“and we will smatter in our takeaways and our impressions and what various players have had to say in the press conference room today as and when they come up while discussing the draw.”
Coco Gauff's Big News
6:34 to 9:30
Coco Gauff's recent changes in her training and mindset leading up to the US Open.
“So, you know, you ask who's got a good draw, my mind immediately out of the top seeds goes to Svante.”
The Pressure of Change
9:30 to 14:00
Discussion on the challenges and risks of Coco Gauff's decision to change her serve technique before a Grand Slam.
“That is a consequence that she's prepared for, which I find fascinating.”
Naomi Osaka's Road to Improvement
14:00 to 16:06
Discussion on Naomi Osaka's journey and potential in the upcoming tournament.
“I'm obsessed with the process of getting better.”
Madison Keys and the Women's Draw
16:06 to 18:06
Exploration of Madison Keys' prospects and the competitive women's draw.
“She's got Griton Minnan in round one, potential round two with Hayley Baptiste or Katerina Siniarkova.”
Elena Rybakina vs. Irina Sabalenka
18:06 to 22:58
Analysis of the potential match-up between Rybakina and Sabalenka.
“It's Madison Keyes' quarter, so her scheduled round of 16 opponent would be Karolina Muković.”
Emma Raducanu's Coaching Journey
22:58 to 28:05
Insights into Emma Raducanu's coaching decisions and career trajectory.
“Tell everyone what you asked her and what you made of the response.”
Raducanu's Coaching Dynamics and Press Conference Insights
28:05 to 31:00
Explore Raducanu's coaching style and her recent revelations about returning to the US Open.
“And so maybe that makes it more difficult in a way to get coaches to commit and to, you know, has she got that in her again or was that a one-off?”
Women's Draw Analysis: Opportunities and Dark Horses
31:00 to 37:10
Dive into the potential outcomes and key players in the women's draw, focusing on Mboko's prospects.
“I feel like this is quite a land of opportunity.”
Show all 25 chapters
Women's Draw Analysis: Opportunities and Dark Horses
38:01 to 39:16
Dive into the potential outcomes and key players in the women's draw, focusing on Mboko's prospects.
“Join us in part two when we'll go through the men's.”
Men's Draw Speculations and Alcaraz's First Round Matchup
39:31 to 42:01
Discuss the men's draw, focusing on Alcaraz's potential challenges and match predictions.
“we are we're moving slowly towards disco david being invited up dj ty alexander up there at the moment and no doubt waiting for dj david to come and join him yeah they're very it's big dj scene the US Open.”
Analyzing Opelka's Draw Against Mahatch
42:01 to 43:32
The hosts discuss the unpredictable nature of Thomas Mahatch's performance against Riley Opelka and focus on strategies for winning.
“Yeah, this guy has been hopelessly out of form.”
Predictions for Alcaraz and Shelton
43:32 to 45:26
They speculate on the potential matchups in the tournament, particularly focusing on Alcaraz and Shelton's paths to the quarterfinals.
“Or is Bonzi going to do the Medvedev double?”
Djokovic's Draw: Challenges and Opportunities
45:26 to 47:15
The hosts assess Novak Djokovic's draw and potential challenges he may face early in the tournament.
“Okay, no offence to Pablo Carina Buster or Jordan Thompson or qualifier times two that are in the way of that potentially happening.”
Fritz's Chances Against Djokovic
47:15 to 51:09
A deep dive into Taylor Fritz's historical struggles against Djokovic and analysis of his current form as they prepare for a potential showdown.
“That's a very fun first-round match, I think.”
Looking Ahead: Djokovic's Best Shot
51:09 to 53:34
Discussion on the ideal scenarios for Djokovic's path through the tournament and how his performance may be impacted by age and recent match experience.
“But he also called out not anybody in particular.”
Sinner's Potential Challenges in the Draw
53:34 to 55:47
Exploring Yannick Sinner's section of the draw, including potential opponents and the uncertainties surrounding Jack Draper's fitness.
“He'd have preferred, he'd have liked this draw at one of the other slams, wouldn't he?”
Draper's Return and Sinner's Threats
55:47 to 56:00
Final thoughts on Jack Draper's return from injury and Sinner's potential challenges in his upcoming matches.
“and when he looks like he's not in his own head and when he's not maybe ground down by the relentlessness of the tour or physical ailments compared to...”
Analyzing Yannick Sinner's Draw
56:00 to 1:02:22
Insight into Yannick Sinner's potential challenges at the US Open.
“Right now, in that mixed doubles, he looked like, just give me the ball, I'm going to make mincemeat out of it.”
Predictions for the Men's Semifinals
1:02:22 to 1:05:30
Discussion on who might reach the semifinals in the men's draw.
“So the quarterfinalists from here would theoretically meet the Yannick Sinner section quarterfinalist.”
Tournament Insights and Predictions
1:05:30 to 1:07:22
Discussion about the likely winners of the tournament and key statistics.
“What are your semifinal, final line-ups and champions?”
Reflections on Recent Interviews
1:10:00 to 1:11:29
Hosts discuss their recent interviews and insights from the players.
“Walking talks can sometimes be it's like sometimes you get into deep chats when you're in the car with somebody.”
Dino Prismic: A Rising Star
1:11:30 to 1:12:44
Discussion about Dino Prismic and expectations for his performance.
“Yeah, we're not getting a one and one without Kras.”
Marat Safin's Return
1:12:45 to 1:14:19
Hosts share thoughts on Marat Safin's involvement with Team Rublev.
“I thought you were going to ask what the group chat name would be.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Hi, this is Josh Boehm from Kansas City, Missouri, and you're listening to The Tennis Podcast.
0:16Hello and welcome to The Tennis Podcast and the first of 17 daily pods from the 2025 US Open. It's fan week. We are truly in the thick of it, which is why you can hear bangers playing in the background. Thank you, Mr. DJ. The draw is out and we have spent the day in and out of press conference rooms speaking to some of the theoretical runners and riders for the titles here in 17 days time. Thank you to Josh in Kansas City for introducing today's show with beautiful dulcet American tones. Perfect for what's been a pretty beautiful day here in New York, David. Maintenance issues with our apartment aside.
1:03Yes, those continue. More of that in future editions of the Toast Podcast. That'll get people staying tuned, David. Hear about the brown silt that's in my bathtub. But, you know, the truth is everybody feels fresher than normal because the weather's not horrible. It's blue sky, beautiful sunny day, it's warm, but it's not unpleasant. And I hope that that continues because this place can get debilitating for the players and for everybody working here when it's that horrible, sticky humidity. And it's not like that at the moment. I think that that's helped players in qualifying. I mean, you can only imagine what it'd be like to go through three rounds of qualifying if it was like that and then go into the main draw.
1:51But I think that there's going to be some players bouncing out of that qualifying draw ready to do some damage in the early rounds. And I like that. I love the sort of chaos that that creates. And yeah, here we go, folks. I know we say it every year but it's true every year and almost feels truer with every year that goes by. The whiplash of the Wimbledon to US Open transition and contrast just could not be greater. And it really strikes me on a day like this because at Wimbledon there's no crowd in. It's a few days before the tournament starts. we have the place to ourselves basically the journalists a few people working there you know and there's a hush to it and we walked in today and bang we're hit with these with these you know songs coming out of the speakers and people on stilts and irish dancing and it's like wow this is a this is a very different vibe and and the truth is Wimbledon is the outlier now you know like the US Open is bigger than than the others I suppose in that sense and louder than the others it's it's the most exaggerated but Australian Open and French Open are more similar you know the hush the quiet is very much a Wimbledon thing increasingly so as they as they desperately try to you know put on a fan week when they eventually have the extra space but that's going to be many many years and until that actually comes to fruition so yeah going from Wimbledon to the US Open I think is pretty much the biggest whiplash and jarring difference that we get in this sport.
3:34You've reminded me that we're yet to get a photo of David with someone on stilts which is always a priority on a day like this. Maybe they'll let me have a go on the stilts and then I'll be able to go to the top of the Arthras Stadium without going up the escalator. Folks, let's start with the draw and we will smatter in our takeaways and our impressions and what various players have had to say in the press conference room today as and when they come up while discussing the draw. Media day is definitely not really so much of a thing anymore, is it? It's media couple of days. There are still a lot of pretty significant players including two of the tournament favourites to come through tomorrow, Igor Shontek Carlos Alcaraz, they're both scheduled to come tomorrow, Jack Draper, a number of others as well.
4:22But we've spoken to quite a few today, Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Yannick Sinner. So we'll bring that into it as and when. But let's use the draw as a framework and let's start with the women. Who has a good draw on the women's side? I think Iga Svjantek would jump out to me as someone who has a good draw here. Obviously we knew off the back of her win in Cincinnati that she was going to be the number two seed So kind of the big question for me of the women's draw was where Coco Gauff would land And look, arguably you could say that that's bad news for Iglesias Fionte Because Coco Gauff landed in her half And really though, I think that's bad news for Coco Gauff I think Gauff would have rather probably been in the Sabalenka half Given the way she's troubled her and we know about the tricky head-to-head for Coco Gauff against Igor's Fiontech when Igor's Fiontech's playing well.
5:21But that's sort of looking at the latter stages of the tournament. I think if we look at the early stages, Igor's Fiontech's got a good draw here. I'm not seeing too many names, too many types of players that would traditionally trouble Igor's Fiontech in the early rounds. You know, Kanin Skye is there as her first potential seed in the third round who has got a win over her, but equally, Chiantic beat her pretty easily very recently. Alexandreva is in there, but she's never really able to bring her tour form to the majors. And then in the quarterfinals, there's a potential Wimbledon final rematch with Amanda Nisimova.
6:00And look, as much as I'm always big on Amanda Nisimova, given what we saw at Wimbledon, it'd be tough to say that that feels like a tough draw for Iguzfiontech. Matt made the bold prediction at our live show last night that if that match happens, it won't be as bad for Anna Samova as it was last time. I stand by that bold take. So I'm looking at Iguzfiontech here, coming in in great form and not seeing too many really obvious threats to her early in this tournament. So, you know, you ask who's got a good draw, my mind immediately out of the top seeds goes to Svante. Let's talk about Coco Goff for a moment.
6:43She's come out, as you say, in Igor Svante's half. So theoretically, she would be a semi-final opponent for Igor Svante. She's in the Madison Keys quarter. So according to Seed, it would be a Goff-Keyes quarterfinal. But Coco Goff has got Isla Tomljanovic in round one, a round two with either Dona Vekic or Jessica Bouthas-Monaro. And then there's players like, well, your eyes immediately jump to Naomi Osaka as a potential, I think, third round opponent. Fourth round. Fourth round opponent. Fourth round opponent for Coco Gauff, whose press conference today was fascinating. She was the player I learned the most from in press today because, well, some big Coco Gauff news has dropped this week.
7:32There have been big Coco Gough developments. She has employed the biomechanist, Gavin McMillan, who's previously worked with Irina Sabalenka and seemingly kind of fixed her serve two or three years ago. She has started working with him this week, the week before a Grand Slam. There have been videos circulating of her out there on the practice court in the rain, making technical changes to her serve. It was interesting. She really laughed at the questions about her being out there in the range she said it was just drizzle guys it was only drizzle um she said i wanted to get more reps in and the indoor courts were booked um she was very open about this move impressed today she said it was a sudden decision she said gavin became available and i felt like i had to to take that opportunity when it presented itself she said i had to make a change so why wait she said I don't want to waste time playing a way that I don't want to play.
8:35She said, I'm obsessed with the process of getting better. I have a clear future where I see myself and I'm in a hurry to get there. And sort of on the subject of it being on the eve of a slam, she said, look, I hate to lose. So there was never going to be a good time to do this. And she kind of talked about, she didn't quite put it like this, but the sense I got was that she feels like because she's won a slam this year and she's had a pretty consistent year she feels like it's already a good year she's playing with house money now from now on she said I haven't got much to defend from this point onwards okay she won the WTA finals last year but up until that point she hasn't got an awful lot to defend she is treating this US Open as a free hit like if making this drastic change now costs her her chances at this US Open, that's priced into the decision.
9:33That is a consequence that she's prepared for, which I find fascinating. Yeah, I don't know whether it's a good idea. I don't know whether it's going to work. Neither does she. But wow, do I admire it. I admire the ambition, the determination to just crack on with it. It also tells me how low she must have gone in terms of her sense of how she's serving and how she's playing. That is a drastic move to make on the eve of a Grand Slam and to do it with so little time to actually make an impact. But then I think she is a player who has shown that with a change to the backroom team she can make some drastic improvements as well.
10:21I mean, that happened with Brad Gilbert in a different way, but she was playing terribly at Wimbledon a couple of years ago, came out and didn't lose another match basically for for about two months and won the US Open um and I think that's an interesting one about the house money the feeling that well I've got one under my belt and and I just want to get on with making myself the best possible player that I can be not just worry about the the record books and what they end up showing in the short term I just end up admiring her for it because she's not shying away from the issue she's just facing it head on and it is interesting isn't it because she has shown herself to be someone who can still win matches can still get through tournaments even when she is serving a big number of double faults like normally she ends up running into an opponent who's playing too well for the standards she's playing she rarely actually like wins the biggest titles when her serve is in that state you know but she can still win matches she can still win rounds she could have i think very conceivably got through some matches here with the game that she had in cincinnati and yet she's made the change as you said kind of a long-term view of it like clearly it's a problem that needs solving why not just solve it now let's see what what the us open brings um and i asked arina savilenka today and in the press conference how long it took her to see changes with gavin mcmillan and get her to a place where she was happier with her serve and she said two weeks she said two weeks of you know she said i was desperate two weeks of incredibly hard work doing whatever it was he told me, fully buying into what he was telling me, and I saw a big difference.
12:14And I think it's going to be hard for Coco Gauff, with a grand slam going on at the same time, to see really meaningful change in such a short space of time. But that answer from Sabalenka did suggest to me that, OK, maybe the US Open, we might still see some problems, but there's definitely a potential bright end to the season for Coco Gauff. So obviously Sabalenka stressed every player is different. It might take Coco Gauff longer than it took me and that's absolutely a fair point. But I'd sort of had it in mind that it took Sabalenka longer than that. I could have had it in mind that technical changes are really, really hard things to do and implement and make a meaningful difference to your game.
12:57It really strikes me as a big long-term kind of project but the way Sabalenka put it wasn't really like that. So that's going to be a fascinating part to see whether Goff's improvement is at the same rate. It's fascinating listening to both Sabalenka and Goff, like how huge the mental aspect is to making a technical change, making a big technical change, which is obviously what Goff is looking to do on the serve. Sabalenka, when she was talking about that period when she worked with Gavin McMillan, she said, I was desperate, I was willing to do anything. And while Coco Goff didn't use the same language, she was kind of saying the same thing.
13:37She was like, it's more important to me than winning a US Open, potentially, or reaching a semi-final of a US Open. You know, she hadn't made this change. She would be in all of our mixes, I think. We wouldn't be picking her as the favourite, but I don't think any of us wouldn't have had her in the mix, despite her form and the state of her serve and her game. And yet she's got this urgency to, well, as she says, get better. I'm obsessed with the process of getting better. And yeah, you've got to be, sorry to, you know, use all the therapy speak, but you've got to be willing, you've got to be open to change in order for any of this to work.
14:19You've got to have the humility to be prepared to do what's required. And yeah, same as you, David, and I'm sure you as well, Matt, like just so full of admiration for her she is a grand slam champion this year this summer she could so easily be like yeah i'm fine thanks okay i'm in not in my best form right now but i'm just going to keep doing what i'm doing because i'm doing just fine thank you very much but she wants to be a better version of herself and yeah it's super cool and yet i haven't got her coming through that section of the draw, personally. I feel very bullish about Naomi Osaka for this tournament.
15:01And yeah, I think... Tell us why. I just think Osaka's shown the levels of improvement on the court that I was looking for. I know it all ended pretty sourly and sadly, in a way, in that final against Victoria Mboko and the whole on-court speech not going well and not doing press comments afterwards, then she didn't. But she owned it, you know, in a subsequent posts that she put out and interview. I just think she's in form again and she's remembering how to win. I think she needs to get on a bit of a roll. I mean, it's important to get that momentum going. But I've always thought there's one more Grand Slam in Naomi Osaka.
15:48and I think that this could well be it. I think she's going to come through that section of the draw with Goff, end up playing Goff, win that and end up playing Keyes. I know it probably sounds like quite a long shot, but that's where I'm thinking. Where do you stand on Osaka, Matt? She's got Griton Minnan in round one, potential round two with Hayley Baptiste or Katerina Siniarkova. Yeah, both of those dangerous opponents, I think. Particularly keen to see Baptiste against Osaka. I think that would be some phenomenal shot making. I absolutely agree on the improvements that we saw from Naomi Osaka through Montreal.
16:33I thought she was moving a lot better. I think I've liked the vibes with Karofsky and her camp. You know, I'm generally positive about that trajectory. I'm far less sort of confident about her chances in terms of going really, really deep here. I think what we saw in that Montreal final was something that I'm not sure is going to go away in just a few weeks. It was pretty alarming the way things fell apart there. I think it spoke to a pretty deep lack of self-esteem.
17:23And for someone who so often rose to those big moments, She's not been someone who has had a load of Grand Slam quarterfinals and semifinals in her career in Naomi Osaka. When she's got to the latter stages of tournaments in the first part of her career, she ended up winning them. She rose to those big moments. And what we saw in Montreal was so far from that player. So I like what I've seen in terms of the game. But to me, I'm not sure she's necessarily ready to go all the way and win a major again just yet. But it's an incredibly exciting section of the draw with Goff and with Osaka and with Madison Keyes.
18:05Baptiste. It feels quite an open section. It's Madison Keyes' quarter, so her scheduled round of 16 opponent would be Karolina Muković. She's got Venus Williams in round one. That's a blockbuster. Marta Kostiuk is in this section, Linda Nozkova, Ava Lees, Sarana Kosteja, retiring Petra Kvitova, who is Bojola Counts of Joy in her press conference earlier on today. Is Madison Keyes in everyone's mix? Yeah, she would be. I don't make her the favourite. I don't think she will win it, but I wouldn't be surprised if she did because she's done it. She's also performed well here, reached the final here before.
18:52Feels like she's probably in the best mental state to handle what's expected of American players, high-profile American players that she's ever been. I am convinced by the Madison Keys' health, the way she's been all year. But I just, I struggled to see Lightning striking twice. and I think that that's what happened at the start of the year she she pulled that off good for her if she did it again I'd be delighted for her but I think I think it's going to be Osaka because I and I realized her I mean her second round would would concern me if she played either either Baptiste or Sini-Archiva but yeah I I am just so so interested in in not just the top couple of names this time I mean I think the women's draw is always there's always intrigue and they're always interesting matchups, but I think there are actually quite a few players who could go all the way here.
19:49Who have we got in the top half then? That's an intriguing name that could go all the way. This obviously is Sabalenka's half. She sits at the top of the draw. Her scheduled quarterfinal opponent would be Jasmine Paolini, but I've got an awful feeling that we're going to do an underestimating Jasmine Paolini thing here because also in this section is Elena Rabakina, Veronica Kudomitova, Emma Raducanu, Leila Fernandez who would like to put their hand up to underestimate Jasmine Paolini first? I think I'm about to do the ultimate underestimating Jasmine Paolini I'm going to tell you a fact which makes a strong case for Jasmine Paolini which is that she has a winning record over Elena Rybakina and that's a potential last 16 match likelihood to face Irina Sabalenka in the quarter-finals so you could think maybe Jasmine Paolini is going to be the one to face Irina Sabalenka.
20:43And yet, despite that, I think it will be Elena Rabatkinner to face Irina Sabalenka. So that is me doing the ultimate, underestimating Jasmine Paolini, because I'm aware of the facts, and yet I'm kind of going against them. But I tell you what, Sabalenka, she did not want to see Elena Rabatkinner in her section. I was going to say, the fact that you think that will be the quarterfinal, Rabatkinner against Sabalenka, does that mean you think Rabatkinner coming through this quarter because I know you find the head-to-head between Rabatkinner and Sabalenka pretty compelling for Rabatkinner. I mean it's hard not to, like it speaks for itself.
21:20Yeah I think a lot of Sabalenka's recent wins over Rabatkinner have been tight whereas quite a lot of Rabatkinner's wins over Sabalenka have actually been blowouts. Rabatkinner has an ability to just actually hit Sabalenka off the court which is quite something when we think of Sabalenka as one of the main power players on tour and she thinks of herself as that she prides herself on being that yet the smoothness of Rabatkin as power and the ability to turn that back on Sabalenka has really troubled her a lot in the past but I think yes I'm a believer in that head-to-head being tricky but I'm such a believer in Sabalenka in terms of getting to the latter stages of slams that record speaks for itself as well you know like the doubts I have over Sabalenka are not actually in those first four or five rounds you know it's the latter stages I think if they were to meet here it would be much more like their matches where Sabalenka's won through very tight fashion you know I think she's going to bring it I would back her to just get through Rabakina and I think with Rabatkinner...
22:32Potential round three against Radikhanu, Rabatkinner. Yeah, which is very interesting. I just, on any given day, I'm not confident that Rabatkinner's going to bring the top level. Whereas I'm more confident at a slam that Sabalenka's going to bring it. So I still have Sabalenka as the big favourite in this section but Rabatkinner is definitely a threat. Open Zians, Rebecca Massarova does Irina Sabalenka and then there's a potential Polina Kudomitova in round two, Leila Fernandez potentially in round three, David, you and I went to ask Irina Sabalenka the same question in press today, I had to cancel my question because you asked it and then I thought of another one and Matt was going to ask that one, so it was all, anyway we were all on the same wavelength with what we wanted to know from Marina Sabalenka.
23:28Tell everyone what you asked her and what you made of the response. I wanted to know, given how dominant she is in the rankings this year, how consistent she's been, whether if she ended the year without a Grand Slam title, and bear in mind she's zero for three for Grand Slam titles this year, whether that would be tough for her to take. And I actually thought i i mean my my personal view is that i think it would be pretty devastating for her her natural inclination would be to to really be pissed off at that and feel like she'd blown it or let herself down and or not got what she deserved because all the effort she puts in and how good she believes she can be and is but she actually very artfully handled that question that I thought, and as though she'd probably...
24:21She often references how much she's learnt from this year, and I think whenever she does that, she's referencing all the fuss that happened after the French Open final and the situation she got herself into with the Coco Gauff lack of respect and lack of giving credit, because I think that really bothered her at the time, I think it hurt her, hurt her pride, hurt her sort of sense of justice. And she was upset and she felt like she'd said something and she was in big trouble. And I think with everybody, with the crowd and she didn't like it. And I think she keeps bringing it up because it shows you how much it bothers her.
25:05And I think probably she had to go through quite a process to come out the other side of that. and part of it is to learn how to be a bit kinder to herself even if it's just speaking it into existence about if she doesn't actually pull this off and win the US Open she's got to be okay with it and I think it's quite quite sensible to have got to that state even if I think inside she'd be burning. Do you see it being a Rebecca Sabalenka quarterfinal or or would you like to estimate Jasmine Paolini? No, I wouldn't. Why break the habit of a lifetime? No, listen, I feel bad about that, but I mean, I still think Elena Rabakina, head to head, should be winning that match on a hard court in America.
25:53And I think the form she showed the other week is I would make her favourite to do so. I do think that Sabalenka Rabakina is going to happen. I think I might have gone for Rabakina to win that last night in the live show. I feel really on the edge either way with that one. Yeah, and the potential round three with Raducanu for Rabakina is interesting. She came through the main room, the main press conference room today. Very well attended press conference and it's clear Emma Raducanu feels very good about finally getting the reps in as a tour player. She feels good about this hardcourt summer. she's had.
26:33She mentioned the Sabalenka match in Cincinnati a lot. She is taking so much validation from the fact that she was able to make that as close as she was. And she also referenced the Sabalenka match she played at Wimbledon, which was obviously two very tight sets. And it was after that match that she was seeking out a new coach. and her agent Jill Smoller, who of course worked with Serena Williams for a very, very long time, she suggested Francisco Roig. And it was interesting the turn of phrase she used to. She said, I feel like the way I played in that Sabalenka match at Wimbledon helped my case in getting him to agree to work with me.
27:18And I found kind of what that revealed about the balance of power in that conversation was interesting. Like, I don't know, I might have thought that somebody like Francisco Roy, OK, he's got Rafael Nadal on his CV, but he's not got a long CV. I wouldn't have thought that he could pick up the phone and work with whoever he fancied working with. But she obviously felt, Raducanu obviously felt like the ball was in his court. She's an interesting case, Raducanu, because she's a total one-off in that she's already had this career high that so many good players never have. And if you pick up the sort of baton to be coached in Emiratikana, you're always going to be compared to that.
28:07And so maybe that makes it more difficult in a way to get coaches to commit and to, you know, has she got that in her again or was that a one-off? And I suppose she also has, and I think she would accept this, now a reputation for not staying with coaches for long periods. That's her approach to coaching. That's her team's approach to coaching. We had Max Heisenberg tell us about it on the show, didn't it? Their approach is mine them for their expertise and then mine someone else for their expertise. Fair enough. But coaches will know that. you're not getting job security with this role and that all feeds into the power dynamic as well.
28:55There were moments of real revelation about Raducanu today. Some of it was very rehearsed and media trained but there were some good moments as well. She was asked a lot about Francisco Roig and that partnership and what she hopes to get from it. She was asked about the Rafael Nadal of it all. Like, are you desperately trying to mine him for information about one of the greatest of all time and trying to learn from that sort of secondhand via Francisco Roig, who was so embedded in that camp for so long? And she said, she kind of said no. And she said, I don't want to pry. Which, very polite, lovely.
29:42but if true and it's possible she just sort of didn't want to go there or get into it but if true and I did sort of get the sense that it was true a curious answer I thought like what are you paying him for if not to pry into what he knows about greatness and elite sporting success from working with Rafael Nadal it was an interesting moment and I don't quite know what conclusions to draw from it. The other line or sort of answer from her press conference was her revealing that how much she didn't enjoy returning here in 2022, defending her title. She lost to Corne, I think, didn't she? And that was a tough watch.
30:34And she actually said, And this year is the first time I've come here and felt able to enjoy it and enjoy the memories that I made here four years ago. Wow. Which is kind of sad. Like, OK, good that you're happy now. But that's, yeah, there's a lot going on there. A lot going on there. The second quarter of the women's draw is the last one yet to be discussed. I feel like this is quite a land of opportunity. This might be the section you'd want to be in if you were sort of an under-the-radar dark horse, perhaps. Yes, I think so. If you were Victoria Mboko, perhaps, who does find herself in this section.
31:21And I think she's not a dark horse because everyone is probably going to be looking at her in this section given what she did in Canada, given how great and obvious her talent is. And as you said, given the fact that the two highest seeds in this section, I think have some question marks against them. One of them is Mira Andreeva. And mostly the question mark is we've not seen her much, really. We saw her carrying Daniil Medvedev in the mixed doubles. But that's about it, really, in the last few weeks because she's not been fit. So kind of where's her level at? I don't expect it to be as high as it was at in the spring, where she was winning 1 ,000 titles.
32:07I think expecting that here would probably be going a bit far, but we know she's a great player, so she could come through this section. It wouldn't be a great surprise, but equally it wouldn't be a great surprise if she didn't. And then you've got Jessica Pagula at the top of this section who ordinarily going into a Grand Slam, certainly this time last year, I absolutely would have been penciling in through the rounds. Like Jessica Pagula, she's so reliable. OK, she had a quarterfinal hurdle that she hadn't got over, but she did get over it, went one better and reached the final here last year.
32:42So she's defending all those points. But she's just changed a little bit as a player. She's not been as consistent this year. She has taken some pretty strange losses at the Slams, I think, this year to Kocciareto and Danilevic and Boisson. These are players who you would expect her to take care of at the slams, but she's been upset by them. She comes in with two wins, two losses on the American hard courts. So I don't feel that confident in Jessica Breguda. She's also got potentially Belinda Bencic in the fourth round, who she's never won a set against. So that's not an ideal draw for her. That's one of tennis's weird and wonderful head-to-heads.
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33:26isn't it? It is. You would have thought that would be quite an even head-to-head, but actually Bencic has dominated it. So kind of for all those reasons, the name I'm drawn to most in this section is Mboko. You know, I spoke a lot about how Canada felt like everything coming together at the right time, her confidence, the crowd. It feels like maybe things are continuing to come together with this section that she's ended up in here. And, of course, the fact that she's got herself seeded, having such a big jump in the ranking, let's see if she can really make the most of that. It's going to be fascinating.
34:06By drawn to, do you mean coming through? Coming through this section, reaching the semifinals? Right now, that's my pick. With a Wimbledon champion in the first round. But a Wimbledon champion who, last time we saw her, could not move. You know, she was really struggling with her left foot, wasn't she? Yeah. Krejcikova. Krejcikova, that is. You know, the level Krejcikova's brought this summer in the matches that she has won and when she has been fit, quite impressive. And when she's got a point to prove, Babbo or Krejcikova, never is she more dangerous. I just am not banking on her fitness, really.
34:47I think Mboko is also capable of beating her even if she is fit. It would be very, very tricky. But I'm just not confident in that fitness for Craig Cheekover. But it's absolutely, I think, one of the standout first-round matches in this draw. There wasn't an... If you'll allow me to have a mini-rant about the US Open draw, we didn't get a ooh or a ooh-la-la or a drawing of breath because we got all 256 names presented to us at once. In a PDF. In a PDF at midday. Absolutely pathetic. But had the draw been done properly, this would have been a real moment when those two names came out against each other.
35:30You're right. We've been denied. Yeah. David, where do you stand? Disco David. Where does he stand on Victorian Boko? Well, I've got her in the semifinals of the tournament. That's the disco David I never love. And yet I could imagine a scenario where she loses in the first round. I think that those are both perfectly reasonable predictions or expectations. But I find her so convincing as an athlete, as a player. And there's a freshness to her coming on the circuit. and you know there are a lot of players in that in that section of the draw that you've talked about there and Drava would be normally the player I would be picking to face Pergoula in the quarterfinals but I I don't feel there's something not quite right about what I'm seeing from Drava the last couple of months I think maybe she hit the wall a bit she had a lot of success in the springtime maybe there's massive expectations and so forth so forth and coming into the other Grand Slams.
36:38She had the really tough situation against Boisson and Roland Garros. She just doesn't look quite the same at the moment. I'm very sure she's going to come back. Whereas Mboka just looks like this force out on the court. And I'm thinking, wow. I think this is her debut at this tournament. And yet she seems like she's been here before. It's a bit Raducanu-esque. And I think she's going to go through this section of the draw and end up in the semis. So you have an Osaka-Mboko-Sabalenka-Rabakina semifinal? Correct. And an Osaka-Keyes semifinal? No, an Osaka-Keyes quarterfinal, and then eventually Svjantek against Osaka in the semifinals.
37:30And Matt, you've got? I don't know if I've been quite as thorough as David in terms of mapping out the whole thing but I've got Igor Sfiontech winning it I've got Osaka winning it all of it
37:49I love that I think it's absolute insanity but I love it We've been there before Disco David, what can I say? Okay, folks, that's it for part one and the women's draw. Join us in part two when we'll go through the men's. Before that, though, we wanted to introduce you to Steve Fergal's International Tennis Tours, as if they need an introduction. They are supporting the tennis podcast throughout this US Open. Steve Fergal's together with On Location set the standard for tennis travel, bringing fans closer than ever to the sport they and we love. They'll arrange your deluxe accommodations, daily transfers to the tennis, and of course, incredible seats with access to hospitality lounges at the world's biggest tournaments.
38:37We've been in some of those lounges. They're a delight. They are, yeah. We had a great time. Yeah, cocktails with kind of fun things in the cocktails with tennis balls on the end of them. Fun stuff happening in there. You can get that at the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open, Indian Wells, everywhere that's worth going to basically and 2026 marks the 50th anniversary of steve fergel's international tennis tours happy anniversary steve so to celebrate they're adding unique extras like stunning excursions to local landmarks throughout the year if that sounds good and of course it does go to tours4tennis.com forward slash podcast that is tours the number for tennis.com forward slash podcast and check out what they have to offer and book your trip welcome back to part two of the tennis podcast where the party really is getting started over on the fan week stage we are we're moving slowly towards disco david being invited up dj ty alexander up there at the moment and no doubt waiting for dj david to come and join him yeah they're very it's big dj scene the US Open.
39:51I don't hate it. A bit of an Ibiza vibe. Yes. Never been there. Never gonna. Does that mean Carlos Alcaraz is going to win the 2025 US Open or Matt? Does it mean he's going to lose in the first round to Riley Apelka? I'm a bit worried about Riley Apelka. I did physically recoil when I saw that among the 256 names in the various draws. Look, I think he'll be fine. I think he'll beat Riley Opelka. I'm not predicting Riley Opelka to beat Carlos Alcaraz. But you don't want Riley Opelka in round one. I know we've talked about Alcaraz's various ups and downs in matches and all this kind of thing, and we've been on high alert for another Burtick van der Zandt's Hulk situation happening.
40:45the truth is he's actually been remarkably consistent this year he's put together seven finals in a row now he has he has slightly got rid of that that tag you know that we perhaps you know had next to his name this time last year as being someone who can just kind of lose to anyone so I am backing him to beat a pelker but he is going to have to concentrate he is going to have to play well in some big moments. I can just imagine him smiling if he said that to him. You know, like Opelka, I know he's in and out of form and all that kind of thing. He's not going to miss seven serves in a row, though, is he, Riley Opelka?
41:28No. I know someone that might, though. He just beat Alex de Menor, did Riley Opelka, someone he'd never beaten in his career. That's one of the best wins of Riley Opelka's career that he's just had. I think he's a dangerous opponent. And, yeah, you just don't want that if you're Carlos Alcarez. But maybe... Or maybe he does. Maybe he's so aware of the threat, it's so you know what you're going to get, and that allows him to lock in. Maybe he overlooked Burtick-Randazansko last year. Lanzitz Burtick. Yeah, this guy has been hopelessly out of form. I'll be fine. Certainly that's what we were thinking.
42:08Whereas you can't really overlook Riley Apolka. It's so obvious what he's going to do. so obvious how you prepare for that match maybe that focuses him and actually it's not too much of a bad draw but yeah it just made me a bit jumpy Understandably so I remember when we were bigging up Thomas Mahatch at the start of the year the best player in the world Feels quite a long time ago that doesn't it? In inverted commas I haven't mentioned him for about three months Huge talent but then he's up against Raleigh Opelka and I thought there's no way Mahatch he's going to concentrate long enough to win this match.
42:44And he's going to be close, and then suddenly he'll lose one point in a tiebreak three times and lose this match. And actually, he did the opposite to Opelka. I think it was four sets, or maybe five, but I think it was four. And there were tiebreaks. And he said he concentrated really hard on his own server. I always think it's the other way around. Surely you're concentrating really hard on your return because you're trying to figure out a way to break the guy. But no, it's more sort of inverted. You concentrate on your own serve. He's not a very good returner, so you win your own service games.
43:18That puts pressure on him as well and gives you chances when you get to those tyre breaks. And that's what Alcraz has got to do. And he's got the brilliance and the athleticism and the inspiration to get those couple of points here and there that he needs. I think Alcraz will be OK. Okay. Theoretically, his quarterfinal would be against Ben Shelton, and very theoretically, his fourth-round opponent would be Daniel Medvedev, although he unfortunately has drawn Benjamin Bonzi in round one, who is the man, of course, who beat him in round one of the last slam. Is he going to do the Bonzi double? Or is Bonzi going to do the Medvedev double?
43:59I think he might, you know. I think he might, yeah. I mean, Bonzi's got better since, yeah. He's exactly the sort of player Medvedev's been consistently losing to. Will we get Alcaraz Shelton in that quarterfinal? I say yes. I say yes to the biggest obstacle for Shelton would be probably Kaspar Rood or Yuri Lehechka. Shelton just beat Lehechka, didn't he? very recently Rude hasn't been in great form really so I do see Shelton coming through there and I think Shelton has lost to Alcaraz and Sinner this year at the Slams he's lost to Sinner when he's gone on to win the title and Alcaraz when he's gone on to win the title at the Slams I think playing Alcaraz at the US Open would feel like a much better shot for Shelton than playing Sinner at Wimbledon and Sinner at the Australian Open.
45:06Yeah, it's best case scenario, this for Shelton. I think that would be night session. Like, let's, you can try and turn it into the sort of match that he wants. I still would back Alcaraz, but I would really like to see Shelton in that environment. Can we have Mouté against Shelton first? Yeah, I was going to say, he'll have to get through Quarantan Mouté in round three. I just want that. I just want that. Okay, no offence to Pablo Carina Buster or Jordan Thompson or qualifier times two that are in the way of that potentially happening. I think Jordan Thompson is going to find this US Open far too woke.
45:40I don't want any of those people to get in the way. Or even Talon Greekspore, and I've got a soft spot for him. I want Mute against Shelton in round three, please. I feel like I should mention Kasper Rude in this section just to beat the allegations. That you don't like him? I'm just not moved by him. There's no hate there at all. What's he going to do? Lose to Ben Shelton. In the fourth round? Yes. Yeah. Not Quarantan Mouti? No. No. I back Shelton because he does tend to meet the people he's supposed to meet. Absolutely. And then he can't quite do it against them because he's not as good as them.
46:23That's what's happened so far in his career anyway. Staying with the bottom half of the draw, so the top of the bottom half, the third quarter, if you like, this is where you find Novak Djokovic, and he would be seeded to meet Taylor Fritz in this quarterfinal. It's a nightmare for Taylor Fritz. Yeah, he's never beaten Novak Djokovic. And is it a nightmare for us? I'm not enthralled by the prospect of Djokovic, Fritz in the quarters. But this is, first round aside, sort of big picture, this is a good draw for Djokovic. He would have wanted Alcaraz rather than Sinner in the semi-final. He'd definitely sign up for Taylor Fritz in the quarter-final.
47:07The problem might be round one slash early rounds for Djokovic. Yeah, I mean, he's drawn Lerner-Tien. That's a very fun first-round match, I think. I think Tien has a winning record on the year, his kind of first year on tour. I think that's pretty impressive. But the most impressive thing is his record against the top players this year. He's 4-1 against the top ten, is Lerner Tien. Medvedev, Zverev, Shelton and Rublev, he's got wins against them. Now, obviously Novak Djokovic is in a different category to all of those players. Yes, he's top ten, but he's an all-time great. and I do back Novak Djokovic to figure that out.
47:51I think you need a bit of a weapon, I think, still, to be able to beat Novak Djokovic. TN can beat you with court craft and can beat you with creativity and imagination. I don't know whether he can beat Novak Djokovic with those things. All those aspects of Novak Djokovic, I think, are tremendously underrated. He's so good when he gets involved in those sorts of matches And he's also able to constrict someone like Tien and stop them being able to play with such creativity as he might be able to against Zverev or Medvedev, for example. So I am backing Djokovic to come through it, even though he's wearing a sleeve.
48:31We haven't seen him since Wimbledon. He was even wearing the sleeve when throwing the first pitch at a Yankees game? I imagine he didn't, yeah, Yankees game. I imagine he didn't want to go full pelt with his serving arm on a pitch. He went very much half pelt, if not less. I don't think they tend to throw those very hard. I think they are very ceremonial, those things. But he was wearing sleeve while he was doing it. He just looked a bit odd. It wasn't a flex, put it that way. I think Tien will keep him out there for a while. And there'll be some moments that you think, oh, what's wrong with Novak Djokovic?
49:11and then then he'll be all right but I actually think that if Fritz doesn't have a good chance this time he never will. I feel like his chances feel like they get better every time he plays Djokovic in a way or they should in theory they should because of Djokovic's age quite frankly and yet... and Fritz is at his peak pretty much now and yet it just seems like there's so much scar tissue there so much baggage and it's a tough matchup just generally for fritz isn't it because he gets put off balance what does he do better than novak jokovic even at 38 year old novak jokovic well he's better at being in his 20s.
49:58So is Matt. That is something I have over Novak Djokovic. And look, Fritz is a very good player. It does feel like his best game just sort of feeds Novak Djokovic rather than hurting him. But I do feel like if Fritz could go out there and really believe his youth and the fact that he's at the peak of his career and Djokovic is kind of hanging on to his best days and not even those really he still can produce incredible tennis but the guy has not played he only plays grand slams I don't know whether you can keep getting away with that yeah and he really most of his press conference today was popping off at two week long Masters events I mean, I don't think he'd be playing a whole lot of 1 ,000 events, even if they were the same length they used to be.
50:55But it's pretty clear that them being two weeks long is a total turnoff to him. And he feels pretty strongly that they're a terrible turn of events for the sport. But he also called out not anybody in particular. He said his understanding is that there's not really much point in trying to lobby for any change because the contract to sign the deal is done. He said there are 30-year-long contracts for those events to be structured that way, which is a pretty extraordinary thought. But he kind of said, oh, well, it's one thing all these players coming into press and saying all this now, but when the negotiations were being done, nobody was really prepared to put the time and the energy on the line required to prevent this from happening or to adjust things at all.
51:54And yeah, I think he's got a really fair point there. He would potentially face Francis Tiafoe in round four, also a possible Holger Runa loitering, although Holger Rune has got Bertuc van der Zanskiel in round one. He's coming in in just optimal form to take out a seed in the first round. Yeah, fresh off losing a six-love set against Sebastian Baez on a hard call. Yeah, got him. He's primed and ready. He's got everyone right where he wants them. Tiafoe, Djokovic, fourth round? Yeah, I'd like to see it. I mean, Tiafoe did pull up with his back a couple of weeks ago in Cincinnati. he certainly didn't look very good in mixed doubles the other day don't know how much to read into that but this is the place that he wants to play his best tennis more than any other Tiafoe against Runa I think that is a heck of a clash if it happens for the right to face Djokovic despite all that I've said about Djokovic and the fact that I think Fritz has the best chance he's going to have I still have Djokovic in the semis losing in the semis to Alcaraz losing in the semis to Alcaraz But as you said, Catherine, it's the best scenario, I think, here for Novak Djokovic.
53:13Alcaraz is half. I think he's got a better shot of beating Alcaraz than he has of beating Sinner. And, you know, not having to face one of those in the quarterfinals so that it takes stuff out of him if he does get through them in the later rounds like we saw in Australia. You know, he had nothing left against Zverev. So I think kind of all the Grand Slam draws he's had this year, Novak Djokovic, I think this is the best one in terms of how he's ended up landing with respect to Alcraz and Sinner. He'd have preferred, he'd have liked this draw at one of the other slams, wouldn't he? Yeah. we got a Mensik Jarry tennis podcast coded first round that we got in trouble for not mentioning at last night's live show so I'm just going to mention it to get out ahead of the criticism on this show we got Joel Fonseca in Taylor Fritz's section he was brought to press today and put in far too small an area he took up the whole when will the people learn that lots of people just forever more now regardless of what he does I was going to want to speak to Joel Fonseca.
54:24It was the media equivalent of some of his court schedules, that one in Miami when they had to suddenly move him and get him into the big stadium. That caused a great scene earlier this season. It was giving that. Let's move on to the top half at the men's draw. Let's talk about Yannick Sinner. He's obviously at the top of the draw. Vic Capriva for him in round one. Potential round two with Alexi Popperin. And a Tommy Paul fourth round. and a Jack Draper quarterfinal, according to seeding, of course. Yes, it's a fascinating section of the draw, that, to me, because of the unknown about Draper in particular.
55:09The guy just hasn't played since Wimbledon, which is, you know, that is a problem for him. But he looked so good in the mixed doubles. Absolutely. I know there's no way of knowing until we see. The proof will be in the pudding. But you were pretty bullish about the scenario, David, where this injury provided it is healed and he's good to go. Like, could end up being a good thing for Jack Draper. Enforced time on the sidelines to refresh mid-season. You know, look at Yannick Sinner. Isn't a bad thing with the way tennis is structured. There's quite a big disparity in Draper when he's unleashed and when he looks like he's not in his own head and when he's not maybe ground down by the relentlessness of the tour or physical ailments compared to...
56:05Right now, in that mixed doubles, he looked like, just give me the ball, I'm going to make mincemeat out of it. And he looked like he could hit the ball bigger than everybody he faced. and I don't know how sustainable that is because it's a fine balance because you've got to have enough robustness to get through the rounds and if he has long matches is he going to hit the wall at some point because that isn't those matches are not in his legs already from previous weeks but I think he looks dangerous so I'm fascinated by that I mean and actually when I look at Sinner's draw generally I do see threats sometimes I see good players that I just don't regard as threats whereas here you've got potentially Alexey Poprin in the second round significantly Alexander Bublik is in his section and could be a fourth round opponent and then could be Draper in the in the quarters so those are players that on their day can hurt you I still think Sinner comes through it but it's at least an interesting draw for Yannick Sinner here It does remind me of Roland Garros a little bit where I remember being desperate for Sinner-Draper there quarterfinal, Draper had been in such good form through the spring playing really well obviously Indian Wells, Madrid you know, like I was hyped for that potential match and then along came Alexander Bublik and played 90 of the greatest minutes of tennis you will ever see to beat Jack Draper.
57:39And then suddenly we had Bublik Sinner instead of Draper Sinner. Obviously, since then, Bublik's got a win over Sinner in Haller, so that remains intriguing. But I must say, I'm not as high on Bublik on hard courts as a threat. I'm not sure he is either, based on his scheduling post-Wimbledon. He took advantage of those weaker fields on the clay, won back-to-back titles incredibly emphatically, and then just hasn't played. But I think there's something about the chaotic nature of his game that disrupts more on the natural surfaces. I think on a hard court, I would be stunned if he beats Yannick Sinner.
58:21I think a little part of me was wondering how Yannick Sinner's going to be after this virus. I thought he absolutely sort of quashed any notion that that will be a problem for him in the press conference. He said, he's fine. He looked fine, didn't he? He looked fine, he sounded fine. He said he's not quite 100 % yet, but he's been hitting. I think he's going to be absolutely ready to go here. And the difference in his body language and demeanour this year compared to that equivalent press conference last year where he was having to explain to the world what had happened with his doping violation.
59:02And you could feel it, the heaviness of him, whereas the lightness of him now is so notable. He's been doing lots of, as they all do, lots of sponsor appearances this week. We have unfortunately seen Yannick Sinner and Carlos Alcraz playing pickleball. Was it Yannick Sinner? No, it was Alcaraz and Fritz. Well, pickleball has been happening. We've also seen Alcaraz being sort of blessed by a priest. It's the most uncomfortable I've seen Carlos Alcaraz look, sort of being doorstepped by... Having heard his apalka in round one. No, it was ping pong I saw Yannick Sinner playing at some sort of sponsor-y thing.
59:44And he looked like Carlos Alcaraz does. It was big golden retriever energy. and like he never looked he always looked this time last year like he was dealing with it all brilliantly but he never looked like this like happy no it's such a contrast and he was asked in his press conference about his kind of rivalry with Alcaraz he was he was asked to sort of sum it up and his face kind of lit up he he's aware of how special the rivalry is as well and and he spoke about he says honestly the only thing that's the same between the two of us is how hard we work to try to maximize and be the best we can be at tennis otherwise we're totally different but you can tell he really likes Carlos Alcaraz Carlos clearly likes him and they love the fact that they've got this rivalry together it's a really cool thing that and I did hear a great stat today from our friend and colleague Matt Trollope, who told me that if Sinu and Alcaraz were to meet here in the final, they would be the first pair in men's Open Era history to play three grandstand finals against each other in the same calendar year.
1:01:00Which I immediately reacted to that and just thought, surely some combination of the big three did that. It felt like they were always meeting in grandstand finals. But no, it hasn't happened in the Open Era in the men's game, and it hasn't happened in the women's game since Venus and Serena. So it's a very rare thing to do. You mentioned at the live show last night, David, how many times did we come into the US Open expecting Federer and Nadal to certainly meet, probably meet in the final, and it just didn't happen. It feels like, in contrast to the women's draw, where there are lots of possible winners, lots of possible names that we're looking at that could do well here.
1:01:40The men's draw, it's all about Sinan Alcaraz and whether they're going to meet. And we have, I have certainly kind of just assumed that that will probably happen, but it would be pretty sort of history defying. And I just wonder whether we're in for a shock that none of us are seeing coming here. You know, like sustaining this level of constantly meeting in big finals is rare. And I think they're good enough to be able to do it. I do expect it to happen, but just be warned. Except Riley Apulka is the shock that we all are seeing coming. So is it even a shock? Last section of the men's draw to cover the second quarter.
1:02:25So the quarterfinalists from here would theoretically meet the Yannick Sinner section quarterfinalist. The seeded quarterfinal at the top is Sinner and Draper. The seeded quarterfinal in this second section would be Alexander Zverev against Alex de Menor. It is, David, a dream draw for Alexander Zverev. I don't think he could have hand-picked a better selection of prospective opponents than he has right here. Right from the beginning, he starts against Alejandro Tabilo, who has won five out of 17 matches this year. Second round, Bautista Agu or Jacob Fernley. Zverev's won his last 12 sets against those two players combined.
1:03:14Third round could be Galmon Fis or Félix Ogi Aliassim. you know players that are really good but i'd be surprised i mean zverev should be beating these guys he should be everybody in his path including andre rublev in the fourth round and probably alex dimenor or karen hatchinov in the quarterfinals i know hatchinov got a win against him in canada but that was match point to zverev and it was a net core that denied him zverev should be in the semi-finals there's just no other outcome that I think he that I think he could accept there and I think that we should expect yes Alex de Mino is a very good player it just strikes me that that Zvereva's got exactly what he wants here and he should be playing Sinner in the semi-finals and if he doesn't it's a failure you agree Matt generally yes um I I think with the caveat that you know one of the reasons why we're sort of down on Zverev I suppose as as a player relative to his ranking is that we always think he's a bit vulnerable you know like because we think there are a lot of players that can outplay him and if Zverev doesn't doesn't play his best I do think that brings in a Rublev for example who was brilliant against Alcaraz in Cincinnati who finally has a potential Grand Slam quarterfinal, not against a Djokovic or an Alcaraz or a Sinner.
1:04:50You know, it's a chance here for Rublev to get through to his first semifinal. Alex Dimonor, again, I don't think that's a given for Alexander Zverev. No, not a given, but... Sarundolo is in there who's got a really good record against him. Like, I absolutely think this is a good draw for Zverev. Of the players he could have played. Absolutely. And if he plays as he can, Zverev, I think he will get to the semis. But I'm just not 100 % convinced that he will play as he can. And as David says, that would be kind of a failure, really, if he doesn't get to the semifinals here. So who have we got winning this thing on the men's side?
1:05:30What are your semifinal, final line-ups and champions? I've got Sina. But you're also covering your bases with a big shock. Well, that was in terms of whether Sinner or Alcaraz meet in the final. I'd be stunned if one of them doesn't win it. You know, like, we could potentially be in a situation where one of them gets shocked. I'd be really surprised if both of them lose here. David? I've got a Sinner-Zverev semi-final and a Djokovic-Alcaraz. I've got an Alcaraz-Sinner final and I've got Alcaraz winning the thing. How far do you think we'd have to start polling around the media centre to find somebody not picking Sinner or Alkraus for this title?
1:06:22I think anybody who does is probably being quite contrarian. I think you could make arguments for Zverev and Djokovic. But, look, they're so by far and away the best players in the world in men's tennis right now, Sinner and Alkraus, that you're looking at injury or illness, I think, as the main reason for one of them not winning it. And that's obviously not to say that we can't see a scenario where one of those two doesn't win the title. It's obviously sport and anything can happen, but to suggest that one of those two winning it isn't the most likely scenario is pretty ludicrous, really. Even for Disco David.
1:07:09who really is going to get called up onto stage pretty soon. So that's it for part two. The stage has got closer. Yeah. It's got louder. That's how volume works. That's how the volume knob works, Matt. They want to get on the tennis podcast. That's it for part two. Join us in part three for more disco. Welcome back to part three of the tennis podcast, where we'll whiz you through a few notable results from qualifying. Unfortunately, Awe Ito didn't make it, David. That's a shame. She still has a chance as a lucky loser. I don't want to wish anybody to have to pull out in the next 36 hours injured, but usually somebody does, and having lost in the final round of qualifying, she'd be in with a chance, but she did lose quite heavily in the final round of qualifying, hitting zero winners.
1:07:59Oh, dear. In fact, the stats from that match were so strange. we are we're not sure that they're putting the best people on qualifying stats compilation because there were we're not quite sure how points were won on the basis of the stats no winners or unforced errors listed in the stats but anyway sad for our Ito fans like me I'll tell you what though Fran Jones Britain's Fran Jones has qualified for the main draw here for the first time her second time qualifying for the main draw of a slam. It's her fourth time playing the main draw of a slam, but that includes two Wimbledon wildcards. It's an extraordinary achievement for Fran Jones, who battles a number of physical situations.
1:08:51As she said herself, I spoke to her today for Tennis Podcast Meets, and she was absolutely brilliant. She is a serious, proper, interesting person. She said, everybody's got something. She said, I'm not saying what I deal with is necessarily worse than anybody else, but it is different. She deals with a very particular set of physical circumstances, and she's incredible. She's qualified here without dropping a set, and she faces in round one, Matt. I'm receiving this news live, but I can tell from Matt's face it's interesting. Well, it's very tennis podcast coded. Ava Lees. Is it? It is. Wow. I did ask her as she was, you know, after I'd stopped rolling and we were, well, she was actually walking to her next interview, Fran Jones.
1:09:39Everybody wanted to speak to her after qualifying today. I said, when will you know and would you rather big name, big court or small name, small court, bigger chance of winning? And she said, honestly, I don't care. And quite often when players say that, I don't believe them for a second. But I did believe her. I really did believe her. and look she's as I say she's she's not really like anybody else on tour Fran Jones and I big big up my own work it's her work really I'd say that's that's worth a listen in Tennis Podcast Meets which should be going up tomorrow we've done a few interviews today David is accompanied Arta Rinderkneesh to the locker room yep we uh we we he was he was offering me a very short interview in the interview area or a longer one if I accompanied him on his walk back to the locker room.
1:10:33So I told the latter. A lovely chat. Walking talks can sometimes be it's like sometimes you get into deep chats when you're in the car with somebody. Yes. You know, it's something about that scenario which can it's a loosener. We connected. How loose was Arter? Oh, he got there. So did I. We had a great time. I'm looking forward to listening to that. And David and Matt had a had a 2-1-1 with Karen Hashinov yes we did, we had a lovely chat again and that's the whole point of Tennis Podcast Meets isn't it yes, he's got Nishesh Basavaradi incidentally, Hashinov in round one so yeah, and hopefully more interviews to come tomorrow for Tennis Podcast Meets, which will be going up for Friends of the Pod we think tomorrow, unless anybody promises us a blockbuster interview.
1:11:27I think we can confidently say tomorrow. Are we confidently saying tomorrow? Yep. Yeah, we're not getting a one and one without Kras. Okay. We haven't asked. Maybe we should be asking. Anyway, tomorrow for Friends of the Tennis Podcast. Last qualifying result I wanted to touch upon was Dino Prismic. Remember that name? Yes. Was it last year? It was the opening day of last year's Australian Open. when he pushed Novak Djokovic to five sets, I think he led him two sets? I think it was four. I think it was four. But he led him by a set and a break maybe. But it was the nature of them. He was so electrifying.
1:12:06Yeah. Really was. And didn't Djokovic say it was like, you know, looking in a mirror? Yeah. And look, he's had injury in the period since then. There are reasons why he seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth. but I think it also just hasn't quite happened in the way we all thought on the basis of that performance. But my brother's had him in his fantasy team and has been tracking his progress very closely indeed and has got a group chat name ready to go for when Dino Prismic finally fulfills his talent. And it is good. What would be fulfilling his talents? I thought you were going to ask what the group chat name would be.
1:12:49Well, I want to know that too. You know. You know. I can't remember. Dino Soaring. Okay. That's very good. It's very good. It's so good. What needs to happen in order for that to happen? I mean, relative to the last 18 months, I'd say qualifying for a Grand Slam is Soaring. So we're in then. We might be in. Well, I think I'm going to say Math. Change that group name if he beats Rublev, who he's drawn in round one. It's a fun round one. That would be Soaring. Yeah. It's funny how the group started out as Kirioptimists. That feels a long time ago. Yeah. Yeah, that feels an awfully long time ago.
1:13:32The group's gone on a journey, and hopefully the destination is Dino Soaring, because that would be a fun time. And I will make a point of watching Rublev against Prismic, certainly some of it, in round one. Have you seen that Marit Safin is in tow with Team Rublev? Yes, he looks like he hasn't had a haircut in about three years. I'd love to know what the contents of Safin's suitcase were. Like, what are these outfits? What did he think he was packing for? It was like me at the French Open, like, urgently order some trousers, Marat. Some proper trousers. It's fun, though. It's a fun element to that dynamic.
1:14:17okay that's it for today's preview we've got another preview to come tomorrow after we've spoken to Carlos Alcaraz and Enigus Fiontech and we'll have Charlie Eccleshire on tomorrow's show as well and maybe the DJ will be back? Well hopefully not yes yeah we'll see TBC on the DJ but we will definitely be here hello to our mascots Phoebe, Maisie and Roger hello to you all I saw Priyanka Phoebe's owner at the live show last night and got some pictures of Phoebe always seems to be smiling every single picture she's, what a mascot so thank you Priyanka for coming to last night's show and thank you actually everybody that came to last night's show I haven't wanted to talk about it too much because I don't want to give people FOMO that wanted to come and weren't able to but it was an incredibly special time and we're very grateful to everybody that came and made it so It was very overwhelming for us and really, really special.
1:15:19And our executive producer, Greg, was a very big part of that, making it happen. So thank you, Greg. Top folk and executive producer alongside Chris and Jeff. Hello to you. Let's have some shout-outs, Matt. We have Claire White from County Clare, Ireland. Oh, hi, Claire. Hello, Claire from Clare. and Claire says after being lucky enough to get tickets to the Olympics last year I was somehow successful in the ballots for both the French Open and Wimbledon wow well done Claire Claire what are your tricks cleaning up I feel like Claire deserves something better than what we always produce which is Claire Wood yeah Claire Liu very good sensational very good any white Anne White.
1:16:12Yes. Yes. Who? Of all-in-one white jumpsuit. Yeah, a pretty iconic Anne White, in fact. Yeah. Leotard. There you go, Claire. Lovely stuff. Very jealous you got to go to the Olympics. We've also got Owen McCroissant. Hi, Owen. McCroissant. As I said it, I thought, surely that can't be the correct pronunciation. Owen. Owen McCrossin Owen, you've reminded me that my favourite moment of today was when our subway broke down earlier Yeah, we struggled to get into Queen's today Yeah, we were on that subway for sort of over an hour it was a pretty dark moment and I remembered that I had a croissant in my bag It was just such a pick-me-up You made a very similar noise as when Sarah Rani hit an underarm serve the whole subway it was the boost that I needed so thank you for reminding me of that Owen tennis, I'm going to assume there's no tennis McQuest Owen Davidson the Australian tennis player who sadly died a couple of years ago and was a doubles partner mixed doubles partner of Billie Jean King and they won numerous mixed doubles Grand Slam titles together very good, very good thank you Owen And finally, we have Matthias Soup.
1:17:40Hello, Matthias. Hey, Matthias. It's a real food theme to my pronunciation of these names, but I feel more confident about this one. Matthias Soup. You're going to have to produce a tennis Matthias, David, or else I will end up telling the story of my brother's German exchange student again. That is what Matthias says. He says, I'm still not the famous German exchange student from Catherine's youth, but a long-time fan of the pod from Stockholm. Come on, Tennis Matthias. Well, I know lots of players from Stockholm, if that helps, or at least from Sweden. I mean, alongside Stefan Erdbeck, of course.
1:18:17I always remember when I was a young lad liking Henrik Sundström. I remember thinking, what a name that is, from Sweden. And Joachim Nyström. My word, did they have some good names in Sweden. We've got Matthias. Matthias Bellucci. Mattia Bellucci, very good. Mattias Bachinger. Yes, I remember him. I have Googled that. No, I remember him. I don't think 90s, no. I think more recent. Hang on, hang on. Stand by. He has a Wikipedia. He is 38 years old. Told you. Wow. He retired in 2023. Yep. There we go. Thank you, Mattias. again. Thank you to all of our friends of the Tennis Podcast. We will be back tomorrow.
1:19:07If you'd like to become a friend of the Tennis Podcast and get to listen to our upcoming episode of Tennis Podcast Meets, then the link, as always, will be in our show notes. We are part of the Athletic Podcast Network. Thank you for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.
From the publisher
Catherine, David and Matt are together at Flushing Meadows to dissect the US Open draws and analyse what’s been said on media day.
Part one - Women’s draw. We cover why we think this draw is good news for Iga Swiatek, the potential for Elena Rybakina to be a problem for Aryna Sabalenka, and why Victoria Mboko could come through a wide open section. There’s also chat about Coco Gauff hiring bio mechanist Gavin MacMillan to help her serve and David explains why he’s feeling bullish about Naomi Osaka’s chances.
Part two - Men’s draw (39:28). The big question from the men’s draw is whether anyone can stop Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. We analyse their draws and consider the paths of Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev.
Part three - Qualifying (1:07:27). We talk about Dino Prizmic and Fran Jones making their way through qualifying and into the main draw.
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