US Open Draws - Is this America’s time?

19:04Catherine Whitaker:Just play the role of a dormant volcano. Absolutely. And erupt all over the Arthrasch Stadium.

19:09Matt Roberts:She lives for that stuff.

19:12Catherine Whitaker:Yeah.

19:13Matt Roberts:So that is the top quarter of the draw, the second quarter. So if Sabalenka, as is her seeding, were to come through that top quarter, these would be potential semi-final opponents for Arena Sabalenka. You've got Karolina Mukova there is the seventh seed. In her section is the American Katie McNally. Emma Navarro is in there. Anna Kalinskaya, the 21st seed. Alina Svitolina, a potential fourth-round opponent for Karolina Mukova. And you've got Jessica Bagula further to the top of this section. She's in with Leila Fernandez, the 31st seed and former finalist here. Jasmine Paolini, the 19th seed.

19:51Matt Roberts:and Sarana Castella playing what is theoretically her final Grand Slam. She's announced this farewell tour year, but has sort of accidentally had her best ever year on tour. She insists that the plan hasn't changed, but it's going to be hard for her to stick to the plan and step away, I think. Who do we like in this section, in this quarter, David?

20:14David Law:Well, Matt, and I think to a degree yourself, have really banged the drum for Jessica Bagula this year. Generally, as though she's made another breakthrough achievement in terms of her consistency and level, and also particularly here at the US Open. This is where you've expected the breakthrough. And I've been looking for opportunities to rain on that, frankly. But I look at this draw and I see her coming through. in fact the entire half of the draw there are tough players there as you said she could end up playing Leila Fernandes in the third round who's a former finalist here she could be playing the winner of Castella Paolini that's not easy and then in the quarter there's Svitolina and Mukova in that section fascinated to see how Mukova does having won this mixed doubles and just the way she's sort of come into this tournament and we've not seen or heard of her since Wimbledon apart from just a slightly confusing Instagram post, mysterious post about a surgery that she'd had.

21:34David Law:But she looks great. And they played an incredible match here, Pegula and Mukave. And the vibes seemed really good, didn't they? Yeah, absolutely. but I just feel as though as long as Pagula's fully fit and I did have some concerns in Cincinnati if she's fully fit and I think there's enough time here to have a few days before she gets cracking I think she comes through that half of the draw

21:59Matt Roberts:That's music to Matt's ears a man that has a lot of reputation riding on a big Pagula prediction

22:07Catherine Whitaker:Why would you make a US Open prediction in March? Why did I do that? why did no one stop me from doing that? Because it's a long time off

22:14David Law:and then you could just not have to worry about it for a while.

22:17Catherine Whitaker:And yet here we are. Yeah, look, I think the jump I felt like Pagula had made is that for years we always talked about her ceiling. You know, she's such a good player, but there'll inevitably be someone who is still just a little bit better than her in a draw. She's so reliable, but can she actually beat the very best players? I just really feel like in the past year or so she has been beating the best players and her record will show that. The thing she hasn't done is the kind of really levelling up at a slam and suddenly like changing your tour form to be slam form. And we kind of saw that at Wimbledon when she ran into Coco Gauff.

23:02Catherine Whitaker:And I felt like Pagula had been playing better than Coco Gauff for a while. but Goff has got that ability to step it up and play these big tournaments in just a different way and she got the better of her there. But I do like this draw for Pagula, I agree with David. Being in this half, away from all those players we talked about, okay, she's in with Sabalenka, who has stopped her here at the US Open the last two years, but see everything we've just said about Sabalenka. Sabalenka is not the sure thing to me that she has been at previous editions of this tournament. So I look at that half of the draw and I think Pagula's in really good form herself.

23:42Catherine Whitaker:She won a lot of matches recently. I see no reason why she can't work her way through this top half and make it to the final. And look, there are obstacles, particularly Mukovo if she really gets flowing and playing. But I don't know. I'm going to stick with the Jessica Pagula prediction. prediction.

24:04Matt Roberts:To win, to win the whole damn thing.

24:06Catherine Whitaker:I'm gonna go with it because I went with it in March and I actually, or April, whatever it was, and I actually think this draw has come out pretty well really, like if you made that prediction. So I'd be silly to, like the thing I don't want to do is predict it in March, get to the tournament, back out and then she wins because then I'm in an awkward situation of like, well I did call this but I didn't. I just don't want to be in that situation. Like Charlie at the Australian Open when all through the tournament he talked up Ravakina and then changed his mind before the final and that was a mistake.

24:44Catherine Whitaker:So I'm going with Pergoula.

24:46Matt Roberts:Matt is a man that commits to his long range mistakes. So you're both going for the same final, Gough-Pergoula, but Matt you're going Pergoula to win it. David you're going Gough to win it.

24:57David Law:That's correct. What do you think?

24:59Matt Roberts:I'm going Goff. I'm sticking with Goff for the title for sure. And this is really boring, but looking at the draw, I back Paguda too. I perhaps feel less confident about it. I could maybe see a surprise in that top half of the draw, but I just feel secure in Goff. And that made me think what kind of a draw would have made me would have made me back down from my Goff prediction. And maybe there wasn't a scenario where I, you know, maybe I believe in her form so much at the moment that I'd sort of back her to come through whatever route. But I certainly back her in this scenario.

25:44Catherine Whitaker:Is there a danger that in a few days' time we're saying, oh, never as high as you think, never as low as you think? Definitely. Are we too all in on Goff here? Or is the form that she's shown kind of making that assessment of her a little bit less relevant right now because the game has looked different in these past few weeks. She's been getting wins in different ways. It hasn't been grinding through matches. It's been really convincing.

26:11Matt Roberts:And yet she can still do the grinding if she needs to. Indeed. If she ends up in a tricky spot, which it's rare that you win a Grand Slam without that being the case.

26:21David Law:I think there is a danger because this place can do things to her and it's a pretty anxiety-inducing environment with how much is on her plate. It's just that she's in such a different place as to what she was last year.

26:37Matt Roberts:Do you know, David, I was on Getty Images earlier searching for pictures of Coco Gough for promotion of this show and I searched for her and I sorted by most relevant. I searched at Gough US Open and a bunch of pictures from last year came up. I'd forgotten just how gruesome it was for Coco Goff last year. I mean, she was sobbing on the court after victories, during interviews. After victories, she was sobbing. It was an ordeal. And obviously, she was in the first week of a huge, humbling project with the new biomechanist coach that she'd employed on the eve of the tournament to deconstruct and reconstruct the two most important shots in her game.

27:26Matt Roberts:It was an incredibly brave decision to make at that time before the most important tournament of her year. But the vibes could not be more different 12 months on for Coco Gauff.

27:43Catherine Whitaker:I mean, this time last year, she'd have been out in that thunderstorm practising her serve. Right. No need to do that this year.

27:49David Law:And that's the thing, the serve and the forehand of those shots you're referencing, they're still concerns to me in as much as what happens if they go off again in one of the matches. My own conviction may wobble a little if that starts to happen, but at the moment I just kind of trust her game in a way that I haven't for a long time.

28:11Matt Roberts:Likewise. Exciting stuff. I mean, look, I don't think there's many people out there in the world that don't root for Coco Gauff, quite frankly, but Coco Gauff doing well here is just a vibe, isn't it?

28:26David Law:Oh, yeah. It's irresistible. We're sitting in the upper bleachers of Arthrasch Stadium here, surrounded by 23 ,500 seats. They will all be filled when she plays tennis matches, and people are so into her here. It's great.

28:39Matt Roberts:Yeah, so cool. Okay, that's it for the women. and we'll be back in part two to go through the men's draw. But before we do that, we want to tell you that the tennis podcast at the US Open is brought to you in association, don't call it a comeback, with Steve Fergal's International Tennis Tours, the premium hospitality and experience provider. And if you want to go and have an incredible experience at the best tennis tournaments in the world, Steve Fergels really is the one for you. They've got you covered, including at the WTA finals in November, which are going to be held for the very first time at Indian Wells.

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30:07Matt Roberts:Welcome back to part two of today's tennis podcast, where we turn our attention now to the men's draw. So I put to you, David, the same question I put to you about the women's draw just a few days ago. You picked Montreal champion Ben Shelton to be the victor here in New York. Has the draw changed that prediction for you?

30:31David Law:well similarly to with Koko Goff I think Ben Shelton has a really tough draw on paper it is it is a draw that would make me shudder a little bit if I was a Ben Shelton fan the first round itself I don't think is straightforward he's he's got a real shot maker in the Dutch player Talon Greekspor who we've seen get some significant wins he beat alexander's very a few weeks ago he's pushed him to the limit in grand slams before i'd still expect shelton to come through it he could have to play the cincinnati champion from a couple of weeks ago artifice in the fourth round they're great friends those two real showmen um and that's on paper a pretty tough one to to pick and that's just to get to the quarterfinals where he may be up against Carlos Alcaraz you know so on paper I think this is a horrific draw really for for Ben Shelton to get through to the final knowing that maybe a Djokovic or a Tiafoe might be in the semi-finals up against him and yet I still feel the same I think Shelton I think it's his time I think he's ready I think his game's never been in better shape I think he plays his best tennis under the lights in front of packed stadium crowds on the Arthrash Stadium at the US Open.

31:55David Law:And I think he's going to come through that half the draw to the final and that there's going to be an all-American pair of trophy holders at the end of it. And bear in mind, if Shelton does it, or frankly, if any American man does it, that's the first American man to win the singles trophy here in 23 years and Andy Roddick.

32:18Matt Roberts:Certainly would be if it happens, yes. I mean, it's a huge call, I think, that, David, on the basis of the draw. I mean, three of the contenders for this title, serious contenders, have come out in the same section in Artifis, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton. Matt, you had predicted Carlos Alcaraz to win the title prior to the draw.

32:45Catherine Whitaker:as Amanda Nisimova walks onto the Arthur Ashe Stadium.

32:48Matt Roberts:Matt's going to be distracted by the backhand for the rest of the show now. And I guess this is a trickier question for you, right? Because it's not necessarily who Carlos Alcaraz has to play that impacts how you feel about his chances. It's, well, what Carlos Alcaraz would be going to get. Carlos Alcaraz was supposed to practice today. He disappeared from the practice schedule.

33:11Catherine Whitaker:He went indoors.

33:12Matt Roberts:Right. I was going to say it could very well have been because he was smarter than us, saw the weather forecast and decided to pivot. Well done, Carlos. But, yeah, I mean, if 2025 Carlos Alcaraz shows up, draw irrelevant, right? Yes. So it's maybe a trickier question for you.

33:33Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, look, I just think the men's draw is particularly fascinating this time round because, to me, you can make a case for quite a lot of players. There's quite a lot of players that I think could win this tournament, but they've all got an almost equal but to their name. Whether it be they've never done it before, like a Ben Shelton, or they're 39 years old, like Novak Djokovic, or they haven't played in four months like Carlos Alcres. These are all really compelling reasons why they might not win the title. And I'm finding it really hard to pick someone out, so therefore I'm just drawn to the guy who I know is the best if he shows up anything close to that level and that is Carlos Alcarez and I'm not really expecting him to be at his best in this tournament because he hasn't played for so long but I'm trying to work out in my mind how good would he have to get to win it does 80 % Carlos Alcarez win this tournament?

34:31Catherine Whitaker:maybe not but 90 % might without Yannick Sinner here and can he get to that level through this draw is kind of what I've been asking myself with the obvious caveat that we don't really know physically how he's going to be. But assuming physically he's OK and the injury is OK and it's just a question of form and working himself in, I think he can do it. Now, I don't think the draw's been that kind in the opening couple of rounds to him. Roman Cefiulin is his first-round opponent. He's a guy who has had his best grand slam results at Wimbledon. He's a quarter-finalist there. He played very well at Wimbledon this year, in fact, as well.

35:14Catherine Whitaker:But he takes rhythm away, you know, and I think Alcaraz will be looking for rhythm in his first round. I just think it's awkward. He's a guy with weapons and power and can take the ball early. That will test quite quickly where Carlos Alcaraz is, as I think will the second round. either Jenson Brooksby, who is a very capable player, or Jaime Farrier, who is someone who has had the best season of his career, has qualified at all the slams before this one, is now in the draw on merit via his ranking. And we saw him beat Ben Shelton the other week. And he's just generally a really solid player, another test.

35:53Catherine Whitaker:So I think those couple of rounds are tricky for Alcarez if he's way off, which he might be. It's very possible that he is way off. But, you know, all-time greats do special things and I'm just thinking maybe Alcaraz can pull something incredible off. And as you say, the draw doesn't affect it too much because it's just all about how Alcaraz is. But he is in big picture a tricky section because of the fact that Shelton's there and Fies are there. And a bit like the women's draw, so many of the form players have actually all landed in a similar section.

36:31Matt Roberts:Do you both think we will get the Alcaraz-Shelton quarterfinal?

36:40David Law:I'm going to say yes. I do have real reservations about Alcaraz because it's just such an unknown as to what physical state he's in. but given that I've said Shelton will go all the way I've got to have him so I'm saying yes

37:03Catherine Whitaker:but that does mean you don't have your guy David and I think I'm more drawn to your guy at this tournament Artifis I don't know he was so convincing to me

37:14Matt Roberts:that was a tough one for David Law because you've gone big on Ben Shelton but long range you're so big on Artifis he's in the form of his life and he comes out in Shelton's section.

37:26David Law:Yeah, I think it's a tough draw for Feast in that regard because I think if he gets up against Shelton here when the crowd's going wild, I mean, I think Feast loves all that as well. Don't get me wrong.

37:39Catherine Whitaker:I think it's hard for him not to be the guy in a matchup.

37:42David Law:Not necessarily. I think it's probably harder that Shelton raises his game and that matchup so far has gone the way of Shelton. I still think the pattern with the Feast backhand being as good as it is should mean eventually that he will become the superior player in that rivalry because I think Feast is a better player overall. But Shelton here, I just think if he's ever going to win one, same as Roddick, it's here. and yeah I just feel as though the force is kind of with him a little bit at the moment coming into this tournament I know he had that early loss in Cincinnati which gives you pause for thought but I also don't think that was the worst thing in the world for him get plenty of time on this court plenty of time in the environment be fully energized um yeah I still see Shelton coming through maybe that maybe it's a stubbornness in me I don't know because I've said it early but I also didn't you know you gave me the chance Catherine earlier on when we were planning for this to back out of my predictions by telling me the draw I'm always fair you were fair and and I've stuck with them because I actually believe in these two players Goff and

39:00Matt Roberts:Shelton in the form they're in right now this is the very bottom quarter that we're talking about here the quarter above that so in theory the player that an Alcaraz or a Fies or a Shelton would meet in the semifinals. Technically, the highest two seeds in these sections are Novak Djokovic and Daniel Medvedev. I mean, at this point, if Medvedev achieves his seeding, I will be absolutely shocked. He was threatening to become a pickleball player 48 hours ago or maybe flirting with curling. I don't know. Daniel Medvedev, who on earth knows? We've got Francis Tiafoe in this section as well, Valentin Vachero, Brandon Nakashima.

39:40Matt Roberts:there's tough players in here. But Uriah, of course, is drawn to 39-year-old Novak Djokovic. Now, nobody needs a good draw like a 39-year-old, right? A 39-year-old who we have a lot of recent evidence now that if he is going to do the close to impossible and win his 25th major title at the age of 39 or more, he's going to need to do it by keeping gas in the tank along the way, by preserving his now limited canister of energy for the later stages when he meets the toughest players and he needs it most. So it feels like the draw is huge for Novak Djokovic. How has it fallen for him?

40:32David Law:Yeah, I don't think it's the worst draw that he could have had, but I also think there's potential for elongated drama that he could do without early on.

40:47Matt Roberts:It's almost like you've watched a lot of Djokovic matches before, David.

40:50David Law:I also wonder whether he's kind of used his luck up in Australia. And listen, it's not lucky that he ended up beating Yannick Sinner, but he was lucky against Lorenzo Mazzetti, who had to retire during their match while he was very clearly about to win. he had other bits of luck throughout that event and here he is with Navone in the first round and you know potentially having to face one of his old rivals in Vavrinka or Berrettini in the second round I could just really see him having a bit of a scenic route in one of the one or two of these matches and depleting himself. But overall, Nakashima is a fourth-round opponent.

41:35David Law:I don't think he's bad if that ends up happening. Do you not? No, I don't. I think Nakashima's really made strides this year, but I'd still back Djokovic to unsettle him because he's a really great kind of rhythmical player, and I think that Djokovic can deny him rhythm. Tiafro and Medvedev potentially in the quarterfinals. I'd still go Djokovic if they end up happening.

42:06Matt Roberts:Matt, I got the sense during the live show earlier, and we found a Brandon Nakashima fan, by the way, potentially even a super fan during the live show earlier. Shout out Mavis, who at the mere mention of Brandon Nakashima became just, she was just fizzing, fizzing at the mention of his name. I get the sense you're more worried about Djokovic's draw and specifically maybe about Brandon Nakashima.

42:34Catherine Whitaker:I just thought we should mention Nakashima. I feel like his summer has deserved that. He's been so consistent. He's made strides and he's in Djokovic's path. And I think it's just easy to overlook him. but honestly like ultimately I do fall down on the same side as David that if that match were to happen I would I would back Djokovic I love the phrase elongated drama like and I can I can see that as well with with Ravrinka and Berrettini there for Djokovic but he's still the guy I go to next and we had this you know confusing situation recently where he comes out of Wimbledon talking about how great he felt after that tournament and how good his body was feeling but then he turns up in Cincinnati I thought was a real show of intent in terms of how good he's feeling and getting ready for the US Open.

43:27Catherine Whitaker:But he looked awful in Cincinnati and was really toiling in the heat and lost his first match. So that's not ideal preparation. But I guess to some extent, I just trust him to work his way through the early rounds, elongated drama or not.

43:45Matt Roberts:Do you think he will work his way through in such a way that he has nothing left for the later rounds when he gets there?

43:53Catherine Whitaker:I think he will have something left. And the question to me is whether that something is enough to beat who's in this draw. Because if a really convincing Yannick Sinner were in this draw, I would think, well, no chance. If a really convincing Carlos Alcaraz appears, I'll think, well, no chance. but if, you know, if Shelton and Alcaraz and Feast have played matches against each other and taken a lot out of each other and maybe, you know, are playing well but not absolutely peaking and Novak Djokovic is there he is going to be licking his lips at this opportunity and relishing it I don't have total faith in him being able to do it but I'm not going to write him off at all

44:40Matt Roberts:It's a good draw for Francis Tiafoe, isn't it? Given everything I just said about Daniel Medvedev and how thoroughly unconvincing he is. I mean, look, looking really deep, it's a potential sort of Schulte-Naukras semifinal. But in terms of getting to the quarters for Tiafoe and then, you know, anything can happen from there, I like it for Tiafoe to get to the quarters.

45:05David Law:Yeah, because I would back him if he played Medvedev. That said, the interesting thing with Tiafoe is I've actually backed him to go deep in both of the last two Grand Slams, the French Open and Wimbledon. And his form leading into those events and at times during the matches that he's ended up losing has been fantastic. And he's had another great run in Cincinnati just now. This is where Tiafoe, a little like Shelton, I've seen him play his best stuff. but I feel like there's a mental block there that he needs to overcome in a big match to win. And that would probably require him to do that against Djokovic in the quarterfinals is what I've got in my mind.

45:51David Law:And there's a big question mark still there. But it's tantalising as a prospect.

45:55Matt Roberts:See, I think, I mean, I have it with Tiafoe too, as you've just described, but I have that trauma with Ben Shelton. I think that's why I'm holding back from Ben Shelton a bit. I agree that it's different here, but I am scarred by how thoroughly he imploded in the face of huge opportunity at the last two Grand Slams. So that's the bottom half of the draw. In terms of the top half, Alexander Zverev, top seed here at a slam for the first time. We've just been watching him practice in front of us Sonash shanking forehands left, right and centre. Again, in a different way, it's a bit similar to the Alcaraz situation or maybe more similar to the Sabalenka situation.

46:44Matt Roberts:I don't necessarily feel down on him because of the draw. I just feel down on his form and I think his confidence. Obviously, in terms of 2026 as a whole, his confidence must be high. But I do think in terms of the post-Wimbledon summer, he's nowhere near where he needs to be to be winning this tournament.

47:08David Law:Yeah, I sort of, on paper, I feel like that shouldn't be the case, that his French Open win and his Wimbledon final should override those things and that it's okay to have some blips along the way leading into a Grand Slam tournament like this and have some time off and maybe take a little while. But the fact that he lost the first round in Canada and then was beaten fairly early in Cincinnati. But moreover, just didn't look convincing. And has spoken a year ago when he lost to Felix Ossiali, spoken about how he just never really had his timing all summer. And particularly this tournament looks as though he doesn't have the feel on the ball that much.

47:52David Law:And now having seen what I've just seen in a practice session against Lerner Tien where he just didn't look like he got control of the ball. And I realize it's only practice and that can change and you can play way in. And probably, you know, most of the players he's up against early on, I don't really see causing him a problem. Lorenzo Mazzetti may be in round four. I think Rafael Hodder is a real threat to him in the quarterfinals. I realize they played each other in the French Open and Zverev took care of him there. But I just don't I don't see Zverev in top seed form or title winning form here.

48:29Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, to me, I'm looking at Hodder there as well. I think as much as Zverev's form hasn't been good in the last few weeks on the American hardcourt, I do think with Zverev, his record has shown that five sets makes quite a difference. It's very hard to beat Alexander Zverev over five sets. Even when he's been in really poor form, it's still taken someone to go out there and grab it against him, like Orgelia seen last year. And I'm just not really seeing those threats in the first week. Mazzetti has got wins against him on clay. I remember him beating him at the Olympics and in Rome. I think on a hard court, that's a tall order for Mazzetti.

49:16Catherine Whitaker:But maybe, like maybe Mazzetti can find his spark and produce what he did in Australia. and that Mazzetti would have a real shot against this Zverev, I think. But for me, it's Hodder that I'm really looking at as the big threat to Zverev in terms of blocking him from getting to the semis.

49:36Matt Roberts:Do you know what Hodder was doing during the US Open last year?

49:42David Law:Do you know, if you'd have mentioned Raphael Hodder to me a year ago, I'm not sure I'd have known who you were talking about.

49:48Matt Roberts:No, I mean, it's been the most extraordinary ascent through the rankings.

49:54Catherine Whitaker:So two years ago, he was winning the juniors here. Yes. Last year, don't know. Last year, he was playing a tournament called Hersonisos 4,

50:05Matt Roberts:which is very COVID-coded in Greece.

50:10Catherine Whitaker:Did he win?

50:11Matt Roberts:Oh, hang on. It seems that Hersonisos had four back-to-back tournaments in the same location. Raphael Hodder played editions three and four, and he reached the final of... In fact, he won edition number three on the 11th of August last year, and then he lost to the guy he beat in the final, in the semifinals, in her Sonisos four. So that's what Raphael Hodder was up to last year, and now he's in the mix for the US Open.

50:47David Law:Yeah, I'd absolutely say so. I mean, our definition of in the mix, for anyone that doesn't know,

50:53Matt Roberts:is somebody that you wouldn't be surprised to see win the title.

50:58David Law:Yeah, Hodder would be in that conversation for me, alongside Zverev, alongside...

51:07Matt Roberts:Hang on, in the conversation or in the mix? In the mix.

51:12David Law:Shelton, Feiss, even though I think Shelton beats Feiss, He's still in the mix to me. It wouldn't surprise me if Feast won that match and then won the title. Alcaraz, absolutely. Djokovic, six. That's quite a lot of players. Fritz, seven. I think the mix is quite a lot of players this year.

51:32Matt Roberts:Taylor Fritz, we haven't talked about yet. He's in the section below Alexander Zverev, so he'd be a potential semi-final opponent for Zverev. The seeds in this section are Felix Orgeliasim, the third seed. You've got Jakub Mensik, the newly crowned mixed doubles champion in there. Lerner Tien that Zverev was just practicing with. Fritz, as mentioned, and Flavio Caballi, the fifth seed down at the bottom of this half. Dare I ask what we expect of dear old Flavio?

52:05David Law:I don't think he's in the mix. I would be surprised if Flavio Caballi won this title.

52:10Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, to me, Fritz is in a section here with a lot of guys who are just outside the mix. You know, I think they're dangerous, they're threats. They could potentially beat Fritz, but then can they go on and win the tournament, I think is another question. And the guys I'm talking about there include Kabali. I would say Lerner Tien is in that category of player. Jakub Mensik as well, and Orjali Asim, semi-finalists last year. It took Yannick Sinner last year to beat Orjali Asim. Now, he's had a back injury recently. His form hasn't been the best over the hard-court summer, but he did play very, very well against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon just a few weeks ago too.

52:57Catherine Whitaker:But they're all in that section with Fritz. It's kind of a stacked little section, little quarter, and yet none of them are the really big names that we're putting in the mix. There's a lot of threats there, but I do think Fritz has come out pretty well from this draw overall, like avoiding Alcaraz and Djokovic and Shelton and Fease and landing with Zverev, a guy who traditionally has got a really good head-to-head against. OK, he lost to him at Wimbledon, he lost to him heavily at Wimbledon. Zverev was awesome in that match and Fritz was struggling with injury, but he said, even if I hadn't been injured, I might well have lost to him today.

53:36Catherine Whitaker:He recognised the levels Verev was playing that day. But on hard courts in the US, I do think Fritz still backs himself against Verev in that match-up in a way that he can't against a Djokovic or an Alcresc. He just doesn't have the evidence of having done it. He can't prove it to himself that he can do it against them, but he can against Verev. So, to me, one of the big draw winners was Fritz. because we're all talking about can this be an American's time on the men's side and just think he's a bit more experienced than the other ones, a bit more of a complete player maybe, maybe not in his absolute physical prime because of these knee issues and that is a concern.

54:22Catherine Whitaker:That's my butt for Taylor Fritz, you know, the knee issues he's having. Is his knee going to hold up? I just think it's not the worst draw for him here.

54:31Matt Roberts:I mean, obviously we know David's answer to this question given his overall tournament prediction. But, Matt, if you had to select one of the American men to win this title...

54:41Catherine Whitaker:I think I would go Fritz.

54:42Matt Roberts:You'd go Fritz because of the draw.

54:43Catherine Whitaker:Because of the draw, yeah.

54:44Matt Roberts:Are you picking him to reach the final?

54:47Catherine Whitaker:I think I am, you know. Yeah. Which I wasn't expecting to do that.

54:52Matt Roberts:Well, that's the beauty of draw day.

54:54Catherine Whitaker:Yeah. Because tennis is about match-ups and rivalries and these things matter.

54:59Matt Roberts:Yeah, I agree. There's a lot of... Apocalypse?

55:05Catherine Whitaker:The gods do not like my Fritz prediction.

55:08Matt Roberts:If you're hearing this right now, it does mean we survived whatever we're about to encounter when we leave the Arthur Ashe Stadium. My goodness me. So, OK, Matt, you're going for an Alcaraz-Fritz final.

55:21Catherine Whitaker:Which feels mad, but here we are.

55:24Matt Roberts:David, who are you picking to come through this top half and play Ben Shelton in the final?

55:31David Law:I'm also going Fritz, which means I'm going for two All-American finals. He knows his audience. Incredible from David.

55:43Matt Roberts:Well, that would be... That'd be quite something.

55:48David Law:I mean, I was thinking earlier that in terms of stories to come out of this event, that is perhaps second only to Djokovic winning 25 as a kind of narrative you know to have American domination of this tournament after all the years of particularly on the men's side of fallow land you know this would be a be quite incredible did you see the ATP social video that

56:18Matt Roberts:they put out asking a bunch of players to, this is before the draw, but to predict who they thought would win this US Open.

56:27Catherine Whitaker:Fritz was backing himself.

56:29Matt Roberts:Fritz backed himself.

56:30Catherine Whitaker:Not many were.

56:31Matt Roberts:Tiafoe backed himself. Tommy Paul backed Novak Djokovic.

56:38Matt Roberts:It's quite revealing.

56:41David Law:When you told me about that, I was thinking, yeah, but don't they mean like the men predicting the women's champion? because isn't it just a bit awkward?

56:52Matt Roberts:Yeah, I mean, it was good content. It was really good stuff. Okay, that is it for part two and the men's draw. We'll be back in part three to mark your card about some first round matches to look out for over the first three days of the tournament. Welcome back to part three of today's tennis podcast. First round matches. What were the ooh-la-la moments for you, Matt, when the PDF dropped in your inbox?

57:19Catherine Whitaker:Well, the big one, we've mentioned it, but was Berrettini-Wavrinka. That just jumps off the page, particularly because they met at Wimbledon in the first round as well. The previous Grand Slam, we now get it again. And it was a belter. It was a great match. Four tie breaks. One of the tie breaks was 18-16. I think it was happening at the same time that Serena Williams was making her comeback and playing my joint and it was one of those all my attentions on Serena Williams but oh my god there's this incredible tie break happening I need to get my second screen up and watch that as well and it adds it's it's added to by the fact that Novak Djokovic is potentially waiting in round two it just gives it extra weight as a matchup and I'm fascinated to see where they where they schedule it sort of what Wovrinka shows up is it one with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder points to prove having been originally denied a wild card.

58:17Catherine Whitaker:Like, I think that story's been big that I think also is what I think he'll have the support with it being his last Grand Slam. I think that could be an absolute scene.

58:26Matt Roberts:Where would you like to see that match scheduled?

58:30Catherine Whitaker:Grandstand? Yeah. You know, like a lot of grounds pass holders in their big courts.

58:37Matt Roberts:Sort of a twilight Grandstand match.

58:40Catherine Whitaker:Yeah, that'd be great.

58:42Matt Roberts:Lovely stuff. David, some picks from you?

58:45David Law:Yeah, there are two or three, really. I mean, on the women's side, there was Venus Williams against Sophia Kennan. You know, you've got Kennan, who's won a grandson, being in another final, who's a feisty American. You've got Venus Williams, who's mid-40s and still revered and loved everywhere she goes. You know, it's just a great scene, isn't it? And I think the winner of that would play Pagula, which is quite something.

59:12Matt Roberts:People are going to see the Venus Williams ace count in that match and predict a return to the top 20, aren't they?

59:19David Law:Yeah, because Sophia Kennan cannot return serves at all. She's worse than Pesci Perikar. And actually, the other one I would say is, we mentioned Artur Fies earlier on, what a draw he's got. Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round. And, you know, there has been beef between Fies' coach, Goran Ivanovic and the guy who used to go, Stefano Sitsipas. So that'll be tasty.

59:45Matt Roberts:Gosh, yeah. The Goran derby.

59:48David Law:Yeah.

59:49Matt Roberts:Is Goran going to be here?

59:50David Law:No, I think he's going to be back in situ in the autumn, in the fall, for the Asian tournaments. And even Shinkush, they basically share the duty of coaching Natafis. He's going to continue. he's been in Cincinnati and Canada.

1:00:11Matt Roberts:Are you telling me that if Art of Feast goes on a run, Goran's not going to get FOMO and hop on a plane?

1:00:17David Law:I'm not telling you that, no.

1:00:19Matt Roberts:But that's not the plan. Watch this space, folks. Any other cards to mark with first-rounders?

1:00:29Catherine Whitaker:I think Muzetti-Ferry is interesting. Two very stylish players. I'm just interested how Ferry's going to get on. post-Wimbledon, trying to back up that big breakthrough. And then for lols, you look no further than Jelena Ostapenko against Tatiana Maria. Because...

1:00:55Matt Roberts:This is such a hipster pick, but you won't regret it, folks. Right, we'll all be there.

1:01:00Catherine Whitaker:Right, like, contrast of styles is something we always look for in matches. and you cannot get more contrast than these two.

1:01:10Matt Roberts:Contrast of fashion, just everything.

1:01:12Catherine Whitaker:Yeah.

1:01:13Matt Roberts:Yeah, that won't disappoint. And I've actually forgotten who Alexandra Iala plays in round one, but regardless, that's where the vibes are, folks. I mean, I don't know whether you'll be able to get anywhere near it. I don't know whether the tournament will feel like they have to schedule her on a ticketed court for safety reasons, genuinely. but if it isn't and you can get near it I suggest you do because sampling that vibe is something very special

1:01:43Catherine Whitaker:She has a qualifier in the first round and as of right now we don't know who all the qualifiers are because it's been raining today and they haven't finished the qualifying but there are some potential as we're recording here right now big names that could get through and could face Iala in the first round

1:02:03Matt Roberts:Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's going to end up being our show tomorrow now where we bring you the results of who's qualified. We know that Grigel Dimitrov's qualified because his third-round qualifying opponent, Otto Wertonen, had to withdraw ahead of today. So Grigel gets into the main draw, but none of the qualifying matches have been completed. Jung Chin-Wen is a set-up in her final-round qualifying match. Bianca Andrescu is to love up.

1:02:30Catherine Whitaker:Still only dropped six games.

1:02:32Matt Roberts:Still only dropped six games. Coco is back in the stands. We are so back, folks. So, look, there's the potential for Iala against Andreescu, a former champion, or Jung Chin-wen, the Olympic gold medalist. Like, there's good stuff there. Yes, please. Yeah, good stuff. But we'll confirm all of that in tomorrow's show. Because I don't know if I've mentioned this, folks, but we've got 18 shows in the next 18 days. Yeah. So anything that we don't cover on one show will always be covered around about 24 hours later. We had a show on Tuesday that feels apt to mention today because it is our latest edition of Tennis Relived, our bonus content for Friends of the Tennis Podcast.

1:03:21Matt Roberts:This is our history series that we do, delving into the recent medium and distant past history of the sport and storytelling, quite frankly, or doing our very best efforts at storytelling. And the story that we told this time around was about the 1996 men's draw at the US Open, which had to be redrawn, provoking much controversy and a walkout from Yevgeny Kafelnikov, the reigning French Open champion, who withdrew himself from the tournament in protest and who David spoke to at length for this edition of the Tennis Podcast. And he doesn't mind being punchy, does Evgeny? No. He doesn't hold back.

1:04:09Matt Roberts:So that is up now for Friends of the Tennis Podcast. If you would like to become a friend of the Tennis Podcast, the link to sign up is in our show notes. And it also gets you access to The Barge, our community safe space platform for talking about tennis with like-minded people. it gets you access to the writing of our brilliant writer Hannah. She's written a column previewing the US Open, dovetailing with a review of Novak Djokovic's documentary. It's excellent stuff. She's such a special talent. We can't believe we have her on the team. And if you're a friend of the pod, then you get access to all of her work.

1:04:47Matt Roberts:And you also get significantly fewer ads. What else do you get, David? All sorts of stuff.

1:04:53David Law:Yeah, you get Q &As with us. once a month on YouTube.

1:04:59Matt Roberts:Monthly live shows.

1:05:01David Law:Grand Slam review shows. Yeah, where we have voice notes from our very favourite contributors giving us a totally different perspective on a Grand Slam.

1:05:10Matt Roberts:We have our tennis podcast meet series that we do on the eve of every Grand Slam where we do a series of kind of get-to-know-you interviews with players that are new on the scene or that we're curious about or that have a particular story to tell and we'll be working towards our 2026 US Open edition of that tomorrow. So as I say, link in the show notes. There's also a link there to subscribe to our free newsletter, which is your source of all sorts of fun stuff, including Matt's stats, which is daily throughout the US Open. You ready, Matt?

1:05:45Catherine Whitaker:I think so. I wonder how many stats I've done now.

1:05:50Matt Roberts:You could do a stat on how many stats you've done. If I do that, then I've run out. And that's just about it, folks, for today, at least for us, and maybe for Amanda Anisimova and Eva Jovic, who are, I think, winding up their practice.

1:06:07David Law:Yeah, I think they're testing out the electronic line calling system at the moment as well.

1:06:12Matt Roberts:Right.

1:06:12Catherine Whitaker:I can tell them it's working.

1:06:15Matt Roberts:Except to tell you about Leo, our wonderful US Open mascot who very appropriately is in rainwear in today's photo. In fact, I think those are little rubber ducks on his waterproof-looking jacket. So Leo obviously is in tune with the vibe. Leo says, or Leo's happiest days are spent at the park with his beloved Uncle Paul, a friend of the podcast. Go on, Paul. Or visiting his grandparents who spoil him with fresh meals and endless affection. Whether he's strolling through the neighbourhood with his mummy or running on the beach, playing in the park or socialising at doggy daycare, Leo approaches every adventure with boundless enthusiasm and a heart wide open.

1:07:00Matt Roberts:That's like a description of David Law.

1:07:04David Law:And Carlos Alkra.

1:07:06Matt Roberts:We love Leo. We love our mascots, Bodhi, Maisie and Roger. We love our top folks and executive producers, Greg, Chris and Jeff. Matt, let's have some shout outs.

1:07:19Catherine Whitaker:We have a couple of shout-outs today. The first one for Lejean Austin from Denver.

1:07:26Matt Roberts:Lejean?

1:07:27Catherine Whitaker:Yes.

1:07:29Matt Roberts:Well, Denver is where friend of the pod Sarah is from, who's been helping us out today.

1:07:35Catherine Whitaker:Hi, Lejean.

1:07:36Matt Roberts:Hey, Lejean.

1:07:38Catherine Whitaker:Lejean says, I made my first trip to London last autumn, primarily to see the Denver Broncos play at the Tottenham Stadium. I did manage to visit Wimbledon, but didn't realise how extensive the museum was and thus didn't allow enough time. On my next visit to London, I plan to rectify that.

1:07:57Matt Roberts:It's just an excuse to go back, LaGine.

1:07:59Catherine Whitaker:Absolutely.

1:08:00Matt Roberts:You know, Sarah told me a story about when she was at school, you know, how it's a thing to have cartons of milk at school. She said apparently a local company launched a special edition type of milk that was orange in honour of the Denver Broncos. And that was distributed at her school. Orange in colour and in flavour. Horrifying.

1:08:25Catherine Whitaker:Absolutely horrifying. Thank you, Lejean. And finally, we have David Smith.

1:08:32Matt Roberts:Oh, hello, David. Hi, David.

1:08:34Catherine Whitaker:We know David. David says, I would like to use my shout-out to say hello to my partner, Marsha.

1:08:42Matt Roberts:Hello, Marsha. Hi, Marsha.

1:08:44Catherine Whitaker:And they were married at the beginning of this month on the 3rd of August. Congratulations. And David says, I've been slowly trying to introduce Marsha to tennis and hope to bring her along to Wimbledon one day for the full experience. In the meantime, I will happily settle for watching from afar with her and our little cat, Binks. Photos available on request, Catherine, David says. Consider that a request, David. Binks is a four-year-old tuxedo cat who loves chasing balls, falling asleep in front of deciding sets and catching and eating butterflies in the garden. So congratulations to David and Marsha.

1:09:24Catherine Whitaker:David is the, as he's reminded me here, he is the only Bruce Springsteen fan I know whose favourite song is Outlaw Pete, which is such a deep cut.

1:09:35Matt Roberts:Did you previously know that about David?

1:09:37Catherine Whitaker:Yes, David's told me that before, but he has reminded me. and I was just as shocked hearing it again.

1:09:43Matt Roberts:Gosh, I thought we were hipster before. Yeah.

1:09:46Catherine Whitaker:I do actually think that's insane, David.

1:09:50Matt Roberts:Well, David liked David Law, of course. My old headmistress was called Marsha, Marsha Elms, and I played her in the school sixth form pantomime.

1:10:06Catherine Whitaker:You played your teacher?

1:10:09Matt Roberts:It's like every couple of years, the year 12's put on a pantomime that mocked. You were allowed to mock the... Yeah, it was a real star turn. It might have been my peak. Thank you, David. Hello, Marsha, and congratulations to you both, folks. We are part of the Athletic Podcast Network. We are here on the Arthur Ashe Stadium at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York City for the next 18 days previewing and then talking about the 2026 US Open. Thank you for listening and or for watching. We'll speak to you tomorrow.

1:11:08Thank you.

1:11:41Thank you.