US Open - Sinner OUT, Alcaraz IN!

19:08Matt Roberts:I think you are, Matt. Yeah. Praying for your in-flight Wi-Fi. It's always a bit of a waste, isn't it, the two of them playing together, because each of them is such an event in and of themselves. like combining the two together is almost too much vibe to be contained within one moment and

19:30David Law:one tennis match like i can't wait but um imagine what the internet will be doing yeah yeah it's

19:39Matt Roberts:gonna be it's gonna pop off isn't it yeah i think it definitely seems like that's happening and uh I am pumped. Okay, I know every element of the next part of the conversation has to be prefaced with, and Matt is going to say it repeatedly, we haven't seen the draw. The draw isn't out. We don't know. There's a lot of unknowns and unpredictable things until we see that draw, and it's going to be just another hanging on every, well, no, names don't come out of the draw at the US Open, do they? It's a PDF. I actually think the draw is less impactful here than it has been at the last two where Sinner has felt like more of a banker and it's felt like you want to be in the other half.

20:32And obviously that didn't turn out to be the case at the French Open because he lost. But here, Alcaraz is obviously there, but he's not played in months. And that's a very different position to what Sinner was in going into the last two majors, if that makes sense. So it feels like the draw is more of a free-for-all, I think.

20:53Matt Roberts:Okay. Okay, well, then I want punchy predictions then from all of you. There's no, you can't use that as a get-out-of-jail-free card. Who, I know it feels kind of wrong to talk about the Sinner withdrawal in any positive terms, and I know there are no tennis players, that no athletes that would celebrate this happening. However, the facts are it benefits. It benefits a lot of people. This is good news for the prospects of a lot of hopefuls, a lot of the guys that have been trying to knock at the door, some more successfully than others, and have been waiting for an opportunity like this. So who is the sinner withdrawal the biggest deal for, David?

21:42David Law:I mean, I kind of think it might be the biggest deal for Zverev because the last time he didn't have to play Sinner, he won the thing, you know, the French Open. So I think if he gets deep and doesn't have to play that guy, he's probably going to be feeling pretty good about his chances. But I would just add Fritz to that conversation because Fritz is the guy who played Sinner in the final couple of years ago. And just, I think he was taken aback by just how good Sinner was that day and that Sinner had moved on. And I don't think Fritz had his very best day, but I don't think it would have mattered really the way Sinner was playing.

22:32David Law:And without Sinner there, you know, and with a questionable Alcraz, I think he will really fancy his chances at this US Open because he can beat everybody if his knee plays ball. And if he plays well, obviously, I mean, I still think there are people that could play a higher level than Fritz on a given day. I think there are people with higher ceilings, but I think his floor is so high that I would kind of think that he will be chomping at the bit, really. I mean, he's a good enough pro not to get carried away in the moment, I don't think, and ruin his own chances. I think there's one or two that have done.

23:14I think there's one or two that have ended up playing worse as a result.

23:19David Law:I mean, there's others. I think Shelton's definitely one of them as well. He's had a lot of problems with Sinner, and I really feel like Shelton is in with a chance of winning this thing. But overall, I'd just about go the other two. it's very oven fritz Matt? Yeah I mean look I have the same names as David I would add in Novak Djokovic I was waiting for someone to

23:48Matt Roberts:say that name, the wolf in winter you say Sorry I mean the wolf in winter. As he shall now be known catchy isn't it Look he's beaten Sinner at a slam this year so maybe you could say he could have won it anyway but you know I think the real evidence is over the last few years, and he has found Sinner generally very tough to beat over five sets, and with uncertainty over Alcaraz, and with guys who, yes, have got a big chance here, but haven't been there and done it. And as we've seen at the last couple of majors, actually some of them have performed worse when the opportunity has been there. And I just don't think Novak Djokovic is going to do that.

24:36I think he has his own potential roadblocks to even get to the title, you know, that aren't anything to do with Sinner and Alcaraz. His own health, the heat, his body, trying to win more efficiently, all these sorts of things. But if he can do that, he knows now that he can get to the latter stage of a tournament and Yannick Sinner is not going to be there. And that is huge, I think, for Novak Djokovic. So absolutely him to go with Zverev, Shelton, Fritz. Do we throw Eminem Kabaly in there as the guy that... Post-Eminem Kabaly? The guy that at Roland Garros...

25:21Matt Roberts:Who will never have to pay for another Eminem as long as he lives. He was the one at Roland Garros who did step up. Okay, he didn't win the title, but he got to the final and did his part in a way that we've seen others not do over the last couple of months. Talk about rounding into form at just the right time. And he keeps on doing these interviews saying, I feel so fresh. He's like, you know, he comes off court after a marathon, yet another marathon deciding set victory. And he's like, I just can't believe how fresh I feel. I don't know. Yeah, I would throw Cabali in there.

26:01David Law:Give up on my vitamins and get the old M &Ms in, I think. And then there's just like a whole tier of guys who you could also throw in there. Hodder, I think, given the form he's been in.

26:16Matt Roberts:You think he's in a tier? Who's in a tier with Hodder? I think you could also put Fies in there because... In the same tier as Hodder. Yeah, because they just haven't really shown it at slams yet. As title contenders here. To me, they're a little bit below the names we've just mentioned as first beneficiaries of Sinner going out because they've got some other stuff to prove, I think, at slams. Whereas, as David said... But they also don't have the scar tissue. Right. So they're a bit more unknown. Shelton was the first name that sprung to mind for me But then what happened to him at Roland Garros in Wimbledon is really scarring to me from a Shelton point of view.

27:06Matt Roberts:You know, the size of the opportunity there and how badly he fumbled it. Now, I know he's done all the right things since then and he's trying to sort of channel that experience in a positive way. But it's to be proven, I think. He's raised a serious question about his sort of ability to seize opportunity, with those two results in Paris and Wimbledon, whereas, you know, someone like Rodar, he might not be good enough yet, he might not have the legs yet, but he's not bringing any baggage to the table. Yeah. I mean, Fees is bringing a hip injury to the table, which is...

27:46David Law:So far, so good this week, though, Catherine.

27:50Matt Roberts:You're very inconsistent, David, about when you choose to be optimistic and when you choose to be doomful about injury-prone tennis players. Let me tell you, FIACE.

28:00David Law:A week ago, I wasn't like this. A week ago, I was a bit down on FIACE.

28:04Matt Roberts:But I've had a good week.

28:05David Law:We've had a good week, me and I. We've all had a good week.

28:07Matt Roberts:Okay, like me and Kabali. Yeah, one round of M &Ms, and I'm throwing him in the mix for the US Open. The bookies have Carlos Alcaraz as the favourite. What do we think about that?

28:21David Law:I wouldn't put him there. But I'm not exactly sure who I would have probably put Zverev there. Even though I'm not convinced by Zverev's form personally, but I feel as though, look, he's the guy who's just reached the last two Grandstand finals and has been playing regularly. We have no intel on Carlos Alcraz's form, fitness or anything.

28:46Matt Roberts:Isn't unknown form better than known bad form though? Which is what Zverev's in. like we know Zverev's not in form

28:57David Law:not on these hard court tournaments no but I mean he's still reached the last two Grandstand Finals and they weren't a million years ago you know I mean he should still be thinking very bullishly about this oh yeah

29:11Matt Roberts:but he is also not in any kind of form right now I'd say that that's yeah Matt Alcaraz favourite for the US Open I can see it I can see why they've got that I can like I would to be clear I would take the field over Alcaraz but if you had to push me for a name I think I would pick Alcaraz like because I have to just I just have to trust that he's coming back and he's ready to come back and I don't think he'll be at his best straight away but I think he's so good that he might be able to use a couple of rounds to find some form. And if he hits form and he's fit, he's definitely the favourite. So the question is, can he do that?

30:02And he's so good. And all-time greats, they do extraordinary things. You know, we've seen people win slams in more improbable circumstances than this, I suppose, is what I'm saying. have we well I mean Rafael Nadal was numbing his foot at Roland Garros and won the tournament he'd won 13 of them yeah but he was numbing his foot David like he wasn't fit to play he left Carlos Alcres hasn't even been

30:33David Law:playing for five months he has not played one tennis match he hasn't played competitively he's been hitting tennis balls and you know played for four hours with Holger Runa yesterday as I said Federer had six months out and came back and won the Australian Open having only played the Hotman Cup. Serena Williams won the Australian Open pregnant. I'm not sure Runa, with his recent record, is somebody I'd be taking as an acid test of where I am. No. But he was available, David. All I'm saying is, like, I'm not saying he's going to win it, and I'm not saying it's a disaster if he doesn't win it. I'm not trying to put any pressure on him to win it.

31:15He's in the mix to lose in the first round and win the title for me. Like that's how good Carlos Alcaraz is. I trust the level that I know is in there. There's just an unknown about whether he can find it.

31:32Matt Roberts:Yeah, I agree. If I had to name one name, it's Carlos Alcaraz, but certainly not Alcaraz over the field. And I certainly wouldn't be at all shocked if he loses first, second round, any round, quite frankly. What if I offered you Americans or Carlos Alcaraz? What chance now do you give the Americans as a collective? Fritz, Tiafoe, Shelton, Tommy Paul. That was a generous Tommy Paul threat. I've done that for my dad because he's become a really big Tommy Paul guy.

32:10David Law:I'd take that.

32:12Matt Roberts:You'd take the Americans? Would you take the Americans over Zverev, David?

32:18David Law:Yeah Yeah

32:20Matt Roberts:Would you take the Americans over Zverev and Alcaraz? The top two seeds No No, okay, Matt? I think I'm with David I think throwing Zverev and Alcaraz in there Feels like you've got the most It feels like you've got the most Probably the most reliable guy there in terms of zverev and then you've got the unknown quantity of alcarez over the americans who i think have got a real shot here but i'm not sure i trust any of them really you know fritz fritz is generally the guy i trust the most but i'm worried about his knees still i I know he's saying they're responding really well, but seven five-set matches is a lot.

33:15Shelton?

33:17Matt Roberts:I should just interject to say I'm being corrected. Brandon Nakashima has never had so many chat mentions. People are screaming his name from the rafters in there. Should probably have said Brandon Nakashima. Should I have said Brandon Nakashima? I don't know. At the moment probably yes I think if you said Tommy Paul Okay yeah Probably Nakashima should be in there But I didn't, I'll be honest I didn't think it was a glaring Permission Learn a TN I was thinking of But that's my own personal bias Yeah I'll throw all of them Matt Riley Apelka's in there You can have the whole bunch Right down to the bottom of the American barrel yeah i mean who el kraus gets first round is who who the who are the dangerous floaters going to be who are the ones that would make you sharp intake of breath i mean butick i think i saw that um i think i saw hatch and i was going to be unseeded is that right oh god yeah i think that is that i saw that too okay i know his form's not great and that's why he's unseeded but oh that would be you'd make your play for four hours yeah yeah that's rough uh i think tarante still be unseeded right like yeah guy like that in form yeah there's a few out there but who did you say last night he wasn't he's just terrible i mean he's obviously had a good week but

35:00David Law:I was happy to be there, Clive, last night.

35:05Matt Roberts:Okay, I'm going to have to ask you for a US Open prediction right now, please. I know, I know, you don't hate me.

35:12David Law:No, it's all right. I'm going to go...

35:16Matt Roberts:David's only saying it's all right because I said in a WhatsApp group an hour ago, I will be annoyed if there are eye rolls when I ask for a prediction.

35:25David Law:Yeah, I've been giving myself pep talk ever since. be upbeat I appreciate it David be helpful Shelton

35:35Matt Roberts:to win the US Open wow like it Matt I think I've told you mine Alcaraz

35:49Matt Roberts:do you want to see think David that would be like sort of an all time achievement if Alcaraz comes back after not playing for four or five months yeah i do yeah and wins it and a massive shock because

36:06David Law:where i stand now i mean i just have nothing to go on in a positive sense other than history now his history is amazing and he's not 40 you know but crikey i mean i just have no no reason to be optimistic for him with anything i've seen with my own eyes in like five months And if he came out and he played, look, I do agree with Matt. Like if Carlos Alcraz is fine, probably take him about seven minutes to hit top four.

36:41David Law:But I just don't believe that you can go from what he's had or I'd be surprised if he went from what he's had to sort of physically unimpeded. over that amount of time that you'd need to play. I'd be worried about that. So if he did it, I mean, I think it would be awesome, really. It'd be an incredible moment.

37:07Matt Roberts:Is there any argument at all? Now, obviously, there are downsides, significant ones to returning at a Grand Slam. I don't think anybody would plan it that way. But is there an advantage to it in that you have time? He has time to, provided he's got the cardio fitness, and I back him to have that. I mean, I know you can't replicate the match conditions of it, and that's going to take some adjusting too, but a best of three set match can be over so quickly. You come out cold, you come out flat, you come out a bit knackered, you come out a bit stiff, whatever. It can be over before you know it. you have time in a best of five set match is there any argument that for for Carlos Alcraz given his

37:57David Law:age there are benefits yeah I can see that I think so and especially given his record over the

38:05Matt Roberts:distance I'm just thinking everybody's so like oh my god coming back first tournament at a grand slam like what a nightmare would you doing like maybe not yeah I mean I think I think my my bigger

38:17David Law:concern would be just the strain on the injury over that amount of time if he gets into a long match early on and it's not properly being tested I would really worry about it breaking down and I again I realize I don't know the full extent of it I don't know whether it works like that with this particular injury but that's what concerns me but absolutely I think there's an argument that having some time to sort of get used to it again in a in a match is useful and give him time to exact his brilliance on people and then the fact that he's got this extraordinary record over the distance my prediction is Alcaraz as well definitely not Alcaraz over the field but if I had to pick one individual,

39:08Matt Roberts:it's Carlos Alcaraz. Which is, I don't know, maybe madness. We had a look at the odds earlier. And, I mean, we haven't even mentioned Alex de Menor, have we? But Holger Runa had better odds for winning the US Open than Alex de Menor. Which is insane. Which is insane. but like he's probably not going to play the tournament if you're putting your money on Runa well I did wonder if because I mean as much as I you know we're not fans of betting on this show and we don't you know it's just not a world that we're involved in the when I was texting you in the week saying you know the internet is saying Yannick Sinner is less likely to play the US Open than Carlos Alcaraz.

40:05Matt Roberts:Very understandably so. I think both of you were like, yeah, Catherine's reporting on what the internet is saying is notoriously unreliable. I'm going to ignore that. Fair enough. I do historically fall for the internet a lot. But it was when I saw reporting that his betting odds of playing or his odds in the tournament, I don't know the link. is it that they fell or that they rose? I don't know. But there was a massive shift in the betting market on Yannick Sinner and that doesn't happen unless people know something, right? And so the fact that, what was I talking about? Holger Runa. The fact that they have Holger Runa in the odds suggests to me maybe they're in with Team Runa.

40:56David Law:No, I think that that's top end Intel. I've seen it with manager odds for my football team for instance of people that I just know are not going to get the job and they're up there in the in the race so what does that mean well they just don't have the intel they're just sort of going on they don't know what they're talking about with that particular one whereas with the sinner thing you I think that I think you can maybe get a steer.

41:32Matt Roberts:Okay.

41:34David Law:That's... What we have from Holger Runa is him being on Served, Andy Roddick's podcast, and saying that he's targeting the Davis Cup as his planned comeback, and then that being reported, and Runa going on Twitter and saying, everyone's saying I've withdrawn from the US Open, and I haven't. People need to stop drawing to conclusions. and it was like, well, no, you didn't withdraw from the US Open, but you did heavily imply that you're not planning to play. So, you know, the last thing I heard Horga Roona say was that he's probably not going to play the US Open.

42:10Matt Roberts:Used this period of injury as a sort of learning and maturing opportunity. Evidence suggests he's going to come back exactly the same guy for better and for worse. But now a honey impresario as well. what a guy uh sorry matt go ahead well i was just going to say hannah just made the point in in the chat that you know all these all these names we've mentioned and we haven't mentioned felix or jay aliaseem who is going to be you know one of the the top seeds and lost to yannick sinner at the us open last year you know do you think that's unfair potentially i'm just i'm not a Felix Believer at all.

42:53I think I do have more faith, I think, in Shelton because he's managed to, you know, win Canada a couple of times when, you know, it's been open and he's been the one who's Serg's and done it and he's repeatedly run into Sinner and Alcaraz at the slam. So it makes sense. And it's in America. It makes sense to me that he would be the first name that we would kind of go-to outside of the ones who've already won majors but i guess if i've i guess if i've mentioned cabali like you you could you could probably say that or jealous seem could be in there as well i don't i don't think he's quite got the extra gear that maybe the kick that cabali's got

43:37David Law:you know uh but grand slam results would tell you that yeah yeah but maybe he maybe he doesn't need that is what I'm saying to win this one if if Sinner's not there you know given that there are still

43:51Matt Roberts:there are still a lot of better players than him I know the ranking but there are a lot of better players I think than Felix I think Fritz is a better player I think Shelton's a better player

44:03David Law:Jerry's a better player I wouldn't put Felix in the mix would you?

44:07Matt Roberts:No I would be surprised if he won it he withdrew from a tournament with a back injury a couple of weeks ago. I don't think I'd put him in the mix either. But to me, he's... To me, he's quite similar to like a Tiafoe or... I don't think Tiafoe's in my mix. Even like a Medvedev. He's not in my mix, to be clear. I haven't mentioned him either, have we? He's been playing... But he's sort of in that tier, just under the guys in the mix, I suppose. Is Hodars ahead of Felix for you both? I would say so, yeah. Just final one on this. It's interesting how little any of us have mentioned Novak Djokovic, isn't it?

44:57Matt Roberts:Because six months ago, when we were talking about Alcaraz being absent from slams and OK, we were still talking about Sinner being a problem for Djokovic. but the person that it felt like it had the single biggest impact on and their chances of winning that slam was Novak Djokovic six months ago and it doesn't feel like that now. Is that right? Does that feel like that is a shift that has taken place over the last couple of slams?

45:33David Law:I also feel like if this was the Australian Open, I'd be more bullish on Djokovic's behalf. I do think there are different tournaments for him in that regard. The record would tell you that. And he just, he never looks as convincing at the US Open to me. I mean, look, he still won it several times. So, you know, it's all relative. But I still, you know, I also wouldn't rule it out. I don't feel confident that he won't win it because somebody's going to win it who is a bit of a surprise to me because even if Alcaraz won it, it would be a bit of a surprise. There's no mix. No one in the mix.

46:18Matt Roberts:Jack Draper definitely not in the mix. He confirmed today having suggested or having been reported that he was planning to play qualifying. We have heard today as reported by Tomaini Cariol in The Guardian. He is withdrawn from the US Open with his arm injury. He said it is unclear when he will play next. Sorry, that's Tomaini that said that unclear when he will play next. I mean, it's no great shock. It's almost a relief to hear this, that he's not going to sort of put himself through the motions with sort of a feeling of inevitability about the outcome. but it is another confirmation of an incredibly depressing picture for Jack Draper.

47:08Matt Roberts:I can't help but think about, there's that video that went viral, isn't there, of Sinner was on camera doing a BBC interview and he found out that Jack Draper was having to withdraw from Wimbledon and he looked so genuinely devastated for him and now it's happening again. but Sinner's also had to withdraw him. So it's just a bummer. It's just a bummer. I know injuries are always a feature in sport but to consistently be denied seeing the best players in the world at the biggest tournaments is such a shame.

47:45David Law:And with Jack it doesn't feel like an injury. It feels like somebody's just taking his career away altogether and I just hate that for him.

47:57Matt Roberts:Yeah, get well soon Jack Draper, Yannick Sinner, everyone else in the tennis sick bay quite frankly and we'll talk about Elena Rabakina on that note in part 2. Welcome back to part 2 of today's unplanned tennis podcast. Seeing as we're here we'll cover off some other bits of news that have dropped pertaining to the US Open in the last couple of days. One of them transpired on court in Cincinnati overnight and that is that Elena Rabakina, who was in a situation of needing just two wins to overtake Irina Sabalenka as the world number one, Sabalenka having lost a few days ago in Cincinnati. She was forced to retire after just five games of her quarterfinal against Iga Shvantec.

48:46Matt Roberts:She came onto court with a lot of strapping on her left foot and ankle area, her Achilles. She was trailing in the match 4-1 and she pulled up. She called the trainer following a consultation with the trainer. She only played one more point before retiring. She was clearly unable to play. She couldn't put full weight on her leg while attempting to serve. the reporting has been that it's the left ankle area which is bothering Rabatkin and she gave some quotes which were reported by the Associated Press she said of course I feel not the greatest it's painful to walk we'll know more tomorrow when we have the MRI it's been bothering me for a long period of time but felt like I had it under control it was feeling okay before the match unfortunately one wrong movement and something happened um look we don't know she doesn't know until she has the results of the mri what i saw uh david looked like somebody that was unlikely to play the us open yeah i had the same thought i i this was horrible this moment because

49:58David Law:uh i i i woke up early this morning and avoided the results what stuck this one on was really really enjoying the first few games, thought Schvontek was playing really nicely, and then there was little flashes of what a Rybakina can do. And then, I mean, she showed just a little bit of discomfort one point, and then the next point she just stopped as though something had gone. That's how it looked at least, and it was horrible. I don't think I've ever seen Rybakina injured quite like that before. I think I've seen her maybe with back problems before, but nothing like this. And, you know, it looked like she'd got the Achilles strapped, you know, the back of the heel there.

50:42David Law:And I went to the physio yesterday to have work on an Achilles. And he told me it was tendinitis, which I've never had before. And it doesn't actually impact movement for me, like at all. I get some pain, but I can move back. And I watched her and she could not move. Like she couldn't push off at all. So I was, I found that really scary. So yeah, she needs to be sensible as well, whatever it is.

51:13Matt Roberts:She does play a lot, Rabakina. Those quotes about how it's been bothering me for a long time, but I felt like it was under control. Look, she knows her body better than I do, but those just raise flags for me. I mean, I generally just always worry about her. She does seem to go through periods of feeling like she's hit the wall and is trying to play through it. And look, maybe she just likes being on tour and likes playing a lot of tennis. But yeah, when I saw the quotes about how it had been bothering her for a long time and now it's just gone, I did think, yes, not great for somebody that you want to be, somebody that could still take the number one spot right like she there's a still a strong chance of that yeah i think it's probably the most likely scenario at this at this stage you know that she might not play the us open but still get the number one spot if sabalenka doesn't doesn't defend um i think i think pagula and goff are also in the conversation depending on how they keep going in Cincinnati and what they do at the US Open.

52:28But yeah, for someone on the cusp of, you know, a career moment like that and getting to world number one to be injured like that. I mean, at any time that would be terrible. But particularly right now, it feels really gutting. And yeah, look, we don't know she's out of the US Open, but it did not look good. and the quote painful to walk is very concerning, I think, with the Grand Sam around the corner. I feel confident that Taylor Fritz is going to need to find a new partner for the mixed doubles. I will say that.

53:04Matt Roberts:I mean, he genuinely is probably really gutted. He loves the Fritz-Robachner mixed doubles duo. Yeah. Who do we think he'll get? Who do you think is his first choice? And who do you think he'll end up with? I think one of my favourite parts of the... Well, she was supposed to play with Draper, wasn't she? So she's now available. She's not in the field, right? Can he tempt Goff? I think Goff is... I think he might play with Pergou. I think the tournament will have tried everything to get Goff to play. They will have desperately wanted it. so I would be unsurprised if Taylor Fritz could offer Coco Goff anything more appealing than what she's already been offered and declined but I could be underestimating the offerings that Taylor Fritz has at his disposal

54:00David Law:they've been a United Cup team haven't they?

54:03Matt Roberts:yes as have Fritz and Pagula more so Fritz and Goff she's very tolerant of his she finds him amusing in next doubles.

54:15David Law:Yes, I seem to recall that Goff quite enjoyed Francis Compton. Well, I wouldn't say enjoyed.

54:21Matt Roberts:Tolerates.

54:24Matt Roberts:I've interviewed them a couple of times after United Cup mixed doubles, and she always says, yeah, he talks a lot. She says, you're really chatty, do you know that? Venus Williams hasn't got a partner. That Rhys. I think deep down, Deep down, I think Fritz would want to decline Venus Williams. Do you know what I mean? I think he wants to win it. Yeah, I do too, because he is a mixed doubles specialist, lest we forget. Well, then it's Pagula, isn't it? Pagula's got to be his first choice. Yes, I think so. And the tournament will want Pagula to play. We know that Medvedev's taken a wild card into Winston-Salem, so Schneider, Medvedev, they're not going to be in the mixed doubles.

55:19Matt Roberts:So Schneider's on the shelf. Yeah, but I think Pagula's more likely. Yeah, he's a bit random, Fritz, though. I could see him ending up somewhere a bit random. Katie McNally, people have been suggesting, which I think is quite a good shout. Yeah, big in the Philippines. Randomly played with Mazzetti last year. Is Keys playing? No. No. Well, maybe you can tempt Keys to play. She did last year. Right now as we speak. Yeah, she did. I feel like she was awful.

56:01David Law:Yeah, she was. She played with Tiafa, right?

56:04Matt Roberts:Yeah, and they were embarrassing.

56:06David Law:Yeah. The level of effort was utterly embarrassing.

56:13Matt Roberts:Yeah. Jovic? I'm just naming Americans. Sure. Yeah. Okay. Shall we move on? That's it for part two. We'll be back in part three to talk about US Open prize money. Welcome back to part three of today's tennis podcast. yesterday made the the US Open made a series of announcements they said they will be awarding record prize money once again they'll be offering a total player compensation package of 108 million which is up from 90 million in 2025 singles champions will take away 5.5 million dollars and first round singles losers will receive$140 ,000, which is an increase of 27 % on last year. Of the$108 million total,$101 million is for prize money with$2 million going to a newly formed player support programme and$5 million is going as stipends for food and hotels.

57:24Matt Roberts:um matt futterman reported in the athletic the 101 million dollar prize pool for 2026 is a 19 percent increase on last year's 85 million and it's likely staved off any player protests over remuneration that of course we saw at the french open and wimbledon this year 101 million is 18 percent of the 2024 US Open's operating revenue of$559.7 million. We don't know the 2025 revenues yet. They haven't been published. So 2024 is the best data that we have available. The players involved in the protests want prize money, as we've been reporting at the for Grand Slam to represent 22 % of their respective revenues by 2030.

58:13Matt Roberts:So this falls short of that, but is significant progress. The group apparently assumes that Grand Slam revenues will grow by 5 % per year when calculating its expectations. That would put its hypothetical benchmark for the 2026 US Open at$616 million in revenue and the prize money representing 16.3 % of that figure. Of course, this will be Craig Tyley's first US Open as the tournament director. He has committed to the players three asks over remuneration, welfare contributions, a Grand Slam player council, and a prize money formula that is tied to revenues. Tyley met with the player group in Cincinnati and said that the association is aligned on all three of its asks, according to a person briefed on the talks who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

59:16The US Open also joined the other three Grand Slams, hashtag Tennis United, to form a new

59:22Matt Roberts:Grand Slam Player Council to give players a voice in on-court and in-tournament issues. The Player Council will also provide recommendations to the US Open to guide how the new US Open player support program will be deployed and these announcements have been very well received by that top player group who need a way better name than top player group but they've received these announcements very positively indeed how do you receive them david um i i think that But this is not far off what I would have expected.

1:00:03David Law:It's actually even gone further than they thought they would go. I've said all along that I thought the US Open would make a real statement with this. And they would want to go big and be bigger than all the others. And then you add on to that the layer of their new leader, Craig Tiley, who loves a big announcement and who loves to be a player's friendly tournament director i know he's not the tournament director but he was at the australian open and he led tennis australia he was always spoken of incredibly warmly by players really where all this sort of thing came up and and i think that he will want the players to simmer down and be on board um and he will have been prepared to push push it a bit more and and maybe you know lose out a little bit on the the margins of of profits and and so forth um and i think that they have they have played a blinder overall the players i mean they haven't had to do that much to make a heck of a move towards their goals and you know for for first round defeated players to be getting 140 000 you know 100 000 plus pounds that is significant money and um and they've got the the council and they've got the welfare package.

1:01:37I mean, it's, it's been a success overall.

1:01:41David Law:I mean, I think there have been elements of it that have been a bit, a bit excruciating over the course of time, but look, you know, the, the, the overall, um, move at the moment is in pretty short time has got them what they wanted. Now, whether it carries on as another matter, that's going to be quite interesting to see but um yeah it's um it it it when i hear about the simultaneous rises in grounds pass prices admittedly on the secondary market i i do wince a bit there when we're talking about the players getting these enormous rises and just think look that the next thing they need to do is figure out a way for this not to be the way it is price-wise uh for the punter who wants to go watch it's great that they have a successful tournament everyone wants to go to and then they sell out and so forth but the secondary markets really bother me that having been said fan week is amazing you know they lay on this week of tennis and entertainment come in the doors watch tennis up close in practice you know and and that's really cool so there are loads of good things going on there are things i'd like to see change as well but um it's no surprise to me that craig tyler starts with a bang and i suspect that will carry on

1:03:05Matt Roberts:there's gonna that first round prize money is now so high um and you know i think it's right that the the distribution of the prize money increase has gone more to early rounds than to later rounds. And that's what the players have said they've been calling for, that they're doing this on behalf of lower-ranked players. But I think there's going to be unintended consequences to that. I would like to track the rate of first-round retirements because it's just such an incentive to take to the court, that amount of money. I know there's the new-ish rule to try and deter that and the rate of first round retirement has gone down as a result of that rule being introduced.

1:03:53Matt Roberts:But, yeah, that is data I will be wanting to keep an eye on, I think. Matt? Not much to add, really. I remember Jamie Baker, Wimbledon tournament director, talking about wanting to lower the temperature and it just feels like that's what's happened. here right like the grand slams have responded by upping the prize money okay not yet to what the players are asking for but but getting there and big increases and they've got this board and it just feels like everyone is now a little bit more on the same page and you would have to say as david has that the protests that the that the players did and and the unity they showed has has been effective up to this point and moving things along.

1:04:44And I think it might be interesting to see in the future, you know, like the US Open is kind of blowing the other slams out of the water, really, in terms of the amount of money they're offering now. I do wonder whether we're going to get to a point where how United are the grand slams kind of thing. You know, if one of them is able to do a lot more for the players than the other, that might be a way that this saga develops, which will be interesting to track. I hope the Grand Slams stay as unified as they can.

1:05:18Matt Roberts:It's also interesting, it's sort of buried in the announcement, but it's interesting that Tylee has committed to prize money being tethered to revenue. It's the headline figures that are grabbing the headlines, But that's quite a big concession, I think, because, again, recalling the Jamie Baker interview, he gave a really fulsome explanation of why that's just sort of not appropriate in tennis. Now, you might disagree with that, but sort of applying the percentage of revenue formula that you have in U.S. team sports just is comparing apples with oranges. So that's quite a big move, I think, and not necessarily one that the other slams would replicate.

1:06:10The top player statement did say that it's not yet tied to an agreed revenue sharing formula. So maybe there's still some way to go on that. And maybe Craig Tiley's got his own sort of idea in mind of what that is, but maybe isn't fully agreed yet. But I do think that's an important point to raise, that that might also be different for the slams. You know, like each slam is different in terms of the way tournaments are run and their costs. Yeah.

1:06:48David Law:Anything to add, David? Yeah, I do remember a piece and I really, I feel bad that I can't exactly remember who wrote this, who reported it. It might have been Matt Hughes in The Guardian. and he's got a lot of contacts within this group and has been doing a lot of the reporting. But apologies if I'm getting the wrong person here, but I remember a while ago, I think around Wimbledon reporting, saying that actually the French Open were looking at the revenue link and they were meeting with the players and that was something that they were prepared to do. Now, obviously, they've got quite a long time until they need to reveal anything.

1:07:28David Law:But yeah, it now feels a little bit like Wimbledon has taken the strongest stance against that concept, at least outwardly. So it'll be, again, fascinating to see what the Australian Open do without Craig Tiley in the chair.

1:07:50Matt Roberts:The Player Advisory Council at the Slams is also interesting, isn't it? I mean, that's what they've been calling for. Seems a no-brainer for the Grand Slams to give them that. But in practice, this is not the same as the ATP and WTA player councils that have voting power built into the structure of the organisation. This is just an advisory council. You know, their advice can be ignored. Like, I don't think that is just a neat resolution of this issue forevermore. I could see there being bumps in the road with that down the road. And again, the different parties having kind of different definitions of what that actually looks like in practice.

1:08:36Matt Roberts:But time will tell, folks. Time will tell. This has been quite a way to spend an evening. There is really nothing I won't do to avoid packing for a trip. How long you got? The taxi's coming in 11 hours. I am a bit packed.

1:09:00David Law:Percentage is?

1:09:02Matt Roberts:50.

1:09:05David Law:Okay, we can work with that. You'll be fine.

1:09:08Matt Roberts:But I've got a deciding set tie break to watch now. Thank you, everybody, for sticking with us, despite the fact that there is some absolutely thrilling live tennis happening. I'm sure most of you are multi-screening, but if we get this show off the road now, then maybe we can watch the conclusion of that. Thank you all so much for being with us live tonight, for joining in the chat. If you did that, for listening to the show, we'll be back on Monday with another live show streaming at 5pm UK time. It'll be up for you to watch whenever you like. It'll be up as a podcast as normal. And then we're, it's an avalanche of podcasts from that point onwards, folks.

1:09:44Matt Roberts:And that's assuming nothing happens in the meantime that we need to come and do an emergency podcast about. and you can never assume that with tennis apparently. So thank you all for listening and watching today's show. Hello to our mascots, Bodhi, Mazie and Roger. Hello to our top folks and executive producers, Greg, Chris and Jeff. We are part of the Athletic Podcast Network and we'll speak to you on Monday.