WTA semis set - who wins it all?

0:00This is Marnie Vandenberg recording live from the Billie Jean King Tennis Centre at the US Open and you're listening to The Tennis Podcast.

0:18Well hello and welcome to The Tennis Podcast. It is Thursday evening here in the UK. The WTA finals in Riyadh have reached the end of their group stage. Round Robin tennis is over for now. Matt Roberts rejoices, although he might have come round to round Robin tennis. More of that to come. We're here to look back on the round Robin stages and to look ahead at what's potentially to come in the semifinals and finals. Matt, how are you doing? Very well, thank you. It's been quite a busy 48 hours in Tennis Podcast World. More on that later. But I have had time to track Amanda Nisimova getting through the group stages in the WTA finals and setting up a repeat of the US Open final, as we heard Marnie there in the intro live from the US Open a few weeks ago.

1:21So somehow it all works. a very, very appropriate intro today from Marnie. I love the name Marnie. And thank you for that intro, Marnie. And thank you for that little tease, Matt. You've done my job for me. Yes, do stay tuned, folks, for a very exciting announcement at the end of this show. David, how are you doing? I'm really well. I'm really well. and I'm enjoying seeing things looking a little brighter on the predictions front, given we had a bad start and maybe we didn't know we didn't have a bad start. It looked like it might be a bad start. It's ended up good. And I'm actually really pumped for the semifinals and I think particularly Sabalenka against the Nisimov because I think we've seen this situation before now which Fiontek and Inissimova playing sort of a slam final and a result going the way of the favoured player and then Inissimova sort of regrouping and I want to see if that happens here.

2:35I know it's not a grand slam but it's big and I'm really pumped. Yeah, we're going to lead with Amanda Inissimova. Luckily, David has already written the rule book on how you, the road to gloating with predictions, the rocky road from potential humiliation to gloating that you intrepidly trodged with Naomi Osaka during the US Open, David. One of many. Talk us through it once again. What's stage one? I can't exactly remember. Stage one is making the outlandish prediction, obviously. You'll have heard us do that, avid listeners. We all went all in on Amanda Anisimova to win the WC finals. I do sometimes make these things completely on the spur of the moment without honestly having given it maybe as much thought as I should.

3:31I sometimes do go with gut. But I do kind of trust my gut, you know. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. but yes basically you have to make the prediction and stand there and just just not back down then you have to hope they perform sufficiently well that you avoid humiliation avoiding humiliation folks stage one yes wasn't looking good um no no we were we were a loss to Madison Keys and a set and a break no sorry we were a loss to Elena Rabatkin a a one-sided loss and a set and a break down to injured Madison Keys and the road really was rocky folks that's right and I would say that stage two is um silencing your doubters of which there were many over Naomi Osaka and it was really the win over Coco Goff for for Naomi Osaka that did the trick um in terms of uh of silencing the doubters then then you're in you're in comfortable territory you know nobody can get at you anymore right the fact that she didn't win the thing um but you're not at gloating level and gloating is the ultimate so that's what we're after we're after her anisimo win it i mean look obviously i don't mind who wins out of these four players i just want anisimo to be so that I can gloat.

4:55Yeah, our credibility mines a bit, David. Yeah, so basically we're at stage two. Correct. We and Amanda Onisimova are silencing the doubters and that is because Amanda Onisimova is through to the semi-finals where she will face Irina Sabalenka. Sabalenka coming through the Steffi Graf group along with Jessica Pagula. We'll talk about that in part one. Let's start with the Serena Williams group where we have Amanda Inisimova and Elena Rabakina progressing through the group, Rabakina progressing in beautiful form and in first place in the group. But we're going to lead with Amanda Inisimova. And in fact, her victory over Igor Shvontek yesterday to seal qualification for the semifinals, by far the best match at the tournament so far in terms of quality.

5:48I know at that stage that was not a high bar to clear. It's still not that high bar to clear, but this was a fantastic match and more evidence, Matt. I know we don't need any more at this point. The point is proven. We know who Amanda Anasimova is now. But if you needed any more evidence of her resilience, well, it was there in this match once again. she's so good she is she's so good and and so resilient yes because you sound so relieved that she's good well i've been saying it for years but now she actually is and it's just so pleasing good under pressure as well isn't she good under sort of you know when you've got a lot that is making you maybe question yourself and reason to doubt.

6:46And yet she's proven that she's got it in her to fight through those moments and really start to hit the ground running. Yeah, exactly. Because as you said, I think this was the only match we've had so far where it was straight winner takes all. You know, like we had Goff Sabalenka today, which was almost that, but there was a set equation in there and it could have got complicated. but Svjantek and Isimova was the losers going home and the winners going through. It was as simple as that and I just think that really did help to elevate the match and make the stakes clear and it was, I think, the best quality match we've had from start to finish because I'm sure we'll talk more about Igor Svjantek's loss to Elena Rabakina where, again, she won the first set but then got totally blown away and totally went off the rails in that match.

7:42This was not like that. This was sustained quality throughout. A really good start from both players, you know, where breaks of serve were so hard to come by. They were both holding serve and Igor Svantec won it in a first set tie break and was brilliant, you know, really good in that tie break, having fended off some break points at the end of that set. and then Svantec has break points at the start of the second set which I think is exactly what David's describing there of Anisimov under pressure having to deliver and she did, you know, she stepped up she saved those break points Svantec missed a second serve return on one of them which will be a regret but otherwise Anisimov saved them and then even at a set down to Igor Svantec one of the great front runners that this sport has seen and this Samova digs in and she's got her teeth into her mat she started striking the ball like we know she can and she believes and she brings it and she levels it up and then she just goes off into the distance in that third set and again has to fight through a tough moment saving a break point at 4-2 but just has too much you know off both wings I'm always going on about the backhand but the forehand stepped up as well and we saw that on the match point where she'd been hitting those returns inside out so well, all match, but this time she hits it sort of inside in and Svantec's rooted to the baseline.

9:13She can't read it. And that's the match. And Anissimova now moves to 15 and three in deciding sets this year. It's Kena Shikori levels of remarkable deciding set record. And yeah, once she's found her range, once she's in a match and is fighting and showing that resilience. She's just proven to be so goddamn good this year. And we saw it again. And yeah, the narrative, of course, of her against Fiontek is always going to be rooted in sort of coming back from that Wimbledon final double bagel. And now she's beaten her twice in a row. And I don't think Fiontek played poorly in this one. I really don't.

9:55I think, you know, she's not at her absolute best, but Anissa Mova took that from her. and yeah, it was outstanding. Did Fjantek play poorly against Elena Rabakina? I mean, the answer surely has to be yes for most of the match. She lost 12 games in a row in this match. This wasn't just letting go of a lead and losing from a winning position against a great player. This was a total collapse out of nowhere, was it not? yeah a bit like we've um seen earlier this year if you think about it as well when you think of some of the ones in the spring on the clay when she would sort of you know have an okay start and then it would just suddenly go away dramatically or she would lose an opening set incredibly one-sidedly i mean it's just not what we've we're used to and it's made for the most interesting year of her career in many ways because she has been very successful I mean she's won Wimbledon she's she's been in other big tournament latter stages and and looking kind of like herself and and then also this new version of herself which at the same time is almost like an old version of herself because I was reading Matt Futterman's article in The Athletic today where he's talking about how she's continually trying with Wimforsett to reintroduce the variety they're not just the the stand toe-to-toe tennis of of thomas witkharovsky she wants to have more to a game but that's that's a it is a big ask that isn't it and you know i i think then you come up against a player like rebachina who has kind of one one way to play she is coming for you and we know that big hitters have hurt shvantek in the past and i'm you know unless shvantek is bang on it against that ball it probably is really tough to counter.

11:53Yeah, it concludes a season for Sviantek that I am struggling to make sense of it. You know, like really, a lot of the things we thought we knew about Igor Sviantek, kind of the opposite happened this year. And that makes it really compelling for us as viewers and observers and analysts of the sport. But yeah, difficult to get your head around. And I think David's right. You know, there has been a big process of unlearning that she's going through with this with this new coach, Wim Fassett, who wants her to play a bit more like she used to play. But I think in some of her toughest defeats, she's she's reverted back to type and been a bit guilty of losing patience and overhitting.

12:41And I think we really did see that today. Well, the other day against Rebacchner, you know, I mean, she just disappeared from that match. Igor Sviante, you know, it was really tight. I think the second set was was maybe a bit tighter than it seems. You know, I know I know six one, but like some of those games, it was it was a little bit, you know, it still felt like a match. Whereas in the third set, it didn't. And a lot of that was Rabatkinner serving brilliantly, playing, I think, the best tennis that we've seen from anyone in this tournament so far. But it was a slightly familiar Igor's Fiontek tale of lack of patience and being really one-sidedly beaten in a set in a way that just didn't used to happen to her.

13:27and we have seen that at numerous times this season and I think it is more likely to happen when she's tired and kind of at the end of her energy levels, which she does seem to be right now. So, you know, any year you win Wimbledon and especially as Iguzriante, that feels like a sort of unimaginable high, really. It was the one that I really thought she might never win. So for her to tick that off this year, you have to say that is such a good achievement. But it does feel like the rest of the field's just caught up to her a little bit. You know, like she started to lose. I know she came into this tournament with the head-to-head lead over everyone in the field or at least an even record.

14:12But I think a lot of that was historic and maybe helped by some of her clay court success as well. I think if you look at it now, she's lost a couple in a row to Anissimova. She's lost three in a row to Goff. She's lost two in a row to Savalenka. She's lost her most recent match against Rebecca now, her most recent match against Paolini. Like, the rest of the top players have slightly caught up to Igor Stjantek, I think. And this year has, yeah, has just sort of demonstrated that, even though she's still been right there with them most of the way. Do you think she'd have signed for this season at the start of 2025?

14:49Some people think that's a ludicrous question. She won Wimbledon, as you say, Matt. Like, that is something she might have wondered if she'd have ever done, ever get to do in her career. And yet, there's a part of me that thinks she's the kind of character that she's not number one. She hasn't been the best player this season. And I think she's so ambitious and ruthless and dedicated that finishing the season not at number one is not what she was aiming for at the start of this year. I'm not sure she would have signed for it I don't know, what do you think?

15:30I don't know I think Wimbledon's so big Wimbledon is huge She won Wimbledon I think she signed for that It's enormous isn't it and I think I don't know I don't know her and it is guesswork but I sense that she would be frustrated and surprised at some of the inconsistency within matches the way that she lost those one-sided sets I think that that would be like really did I do that but then to suddenly put together that sort of form to win Wimbledon and have that high I often think with questions like that Players usually would say no to something at the start of it because they would think that they could do more than what they ended up with.

16:27I've heard that. I remember Roger Federer in the interview, sorry for the name drop, I did with him in 2010 when I put to him how many Grand Slams he'd won over. Or if I offered you this many Grand Slams over the next five years, would you take it right now? I remember asking him that in 2010. I think I said, if I could do three more over the next, maybe three more over the next five years, I think it was, or something like that. And he said, and that would take him past the record. I think it was. I can't exactly remember the numbers, but I remember he just said, no, I'd want to win more because I have won two or three a year.

17:05That's what I'm used to, basically. And I think that not winning Raleigh Garras is probably quite hard for Igor Shvantec to accept because that's something she does, even though she knows it's really tough and there's a lot of competition out there and she doesn't assume stuff. But it is an interesting season and I wonder how she will go into the next one to try to improve things. Yeah. I'm in no way suggesting it's been a bad season. I just, you know, circling back to the original words that Matt said, it's been a weird season for Iga Shontek. Really weird season. We haven't really talked about Elena Rabakino, who's probably the woman that deserves the most plaudits from this Serena Williams group.

17:58Talk about rediscovering form, David. I mean, this looks close to peak Rabakino right now. She has been absolutely awesome in Riyadh so far. Yeah, she's been searching for this all year. this feeling of security, I think, from the baseline, knowing what's coming off a racket. We know how good her serve is when it's on. It's the best. You know, you talk to Goran Ivanovic when he worked with her. You listen to Andy Roddick. These are people that know serving, and they rate her serve above all other in the game right now. And it's the way she just rolls her arm over and the points over. you know just just I mean I know there's more to it than that but that's what it looks like and then this the reaction when it actually comes off the strings the sound of it I mean it's it's awesome um to behold it's it's top level tennis this and you know you look at them now on on paper she's you would not be surprised if she ended up actually winning it I know we picked Anissim over but I was really taken aback by the level against Anissa Nova.

19:08And I realise she's improved since then, but blimey. If Rabacchina keeps this up, she'll take some stopping. The one to beat, Matt, Elena Rabacchina? Based on form so far, yes. I do think she's playing the best tennis here. I just don't know whether she's answered the question that I've had about her this year which is kind of with regards to I guess the clutch gene you know like we've seen a lot of Rebecca in her matches where she's been in winning positions and not been able to close and I just feel like there's been a lot of baggage over the last year or so accumulated there She hasn't really needed to flex that muscle.

19:59This is an extended metaphor that is not working, but... I'm enjoying it. Press on. You get what I'm saying. She hasn't really needed to be clutch this tournament so far because she's been so good and been so dominant. Other than losing that one set to Igor Sviontek, she's been absolutely imperious so far. But I just think when it gets close, if the players left in this draw can make it close, you know, I'm probably backing Sabalenka or I'm backing Anissimova, see previous discussion about her three-set record form, you know, like it's just whether anyone can make it close, you know, and I just have to think that there might be a level drop to come from Rebecca because that kind of has been the pattern of her last couple of years.

20:51You know, there's a reason she hasn't been winning the biggest titles and like a lot of it is form and she's got that form right now but i think there's just something a bit more to it as well so i i think she's playing the best tennis but i think i'm probably backing maybe all of the others in terms of that real match toughness and ability to just get over the line at a kind of bigger event so she looked she lived she feels at the favourite right now because she's playing so well but things can change, I suppose. And now we're not in round robin. It's like the Traitors. You've got to come through a test.

21:28Right. Exactly. She hasn't come through a test at the round table. Yeah. She's Alan Carr. It's the comparison everyone has always thought. Elena Ravakina, Alan Carr. Just like Alan Carr, so far the Traitors finale starts in an hour and 51 minutes here in the UK as we record, so far undefeated. She beat Igor Shontek, that comeback win. She dismissed Amanda Anissamova in her opening match and then she faced Ekaterina Alexandrova in her third match. Alexandrova, the second alternate. Did anybody know that Ekaterina Alexandrova was lurking in Riyadh? I certainly didn't. Mirandreva was the first alternate.

22:13She's obviously playing in the doubles, elected not to come in and play the singles when given the opportunity. And I get that. There's a difference between being fit to play singles and fit to play doubles. That's absolutely her right. And I kind of, I really, I think I respect that decision from Iran Draver. So in comes Ekaterina Alexandrovich making an unexpected appearance and actually putting up a decent show, but being overpowered by the brilliant Elena Abakina as she has been so far. So it'll be Rabakna against Pagula in the semifinals and Sabalenka against Anisimova. We'll talk about those two and how they made their way through the Steffi Graf group in part two.

22:59Welcome back to part two of today's tennis podcast, where we turn our attention now to the Steffi Graf group. Apparently, Steffi Graf and Serena Williams are a couplet in this particular context because they've both won five WTA finals titles. That is how those two group names have been arrived at. There you go. This group has been won by the world number one. She collected her year end number one trophy this week and she has progressed through the groups unscathed. It is, of course, Irina Sabalenka. The key match for her in this group, the three-set win over Jessica Pagula, a much-needed, decent-quality match.

23:48The first really competitive, good-quality match of these finals, 6-4, 2-6, 6-3. And, yeah, unlike Alan Carr and Elena Rabatkinner, Irina Sabalenka has been tested, Matt. yeah she has uh because as you said Pagula Sabalenka like at the moment a really reliable matchup in terms of generating pretty good matches I I didn't think this was as high quality as Sviontek and the Samova but it was competitive and Sabalenka really did that thing of stepping up when she needed to. You know, she sort of really went away in that second set. But some of the shot making in that third set, particularly with backhands down the line on the run, you know, it seemed to be a shot that she kept coming up with time and time again and in crucial moments just stepping up.

24:45And she's sort of done that a lot against Jessica Pagula. You know, Pagula's right there with her, but Samalenka just has a gear, a level. that Pagula doesn't quite have, I think. And Sabalenka seems to be able to find it most of the time. Obviously, Pagula got her in Wuhan just a couple of weeks ago. But most of the time, Sabalenka just seems to be able to raise it enough. But yeah, I really do like the way they're matching up against each other right now. It was not a straightforward match at all for Sabalenka. There was a lot of angst. her coach Dubrov left the box during the match. And, you know, there was clearly some sort of tough emotions out there, but she got through it.

25:36And then, you know, speaking of tough emotions, I was having real flashbacks to June and Roland Garros watching her slowly descend into madness just now against Coco Gough as it seemed to be happening again. in that first set. And, you know, she was eye rolling and sighing and the shoulders were slumping and she was contorting her face in all sorts of frustrated expressions and slamming the ball down. And it was... She was having an awful time. Yeah. Awful. I don't know. I mean, yeah, I don't know how she won that set. I mean, I do because she's brilliant, but God, she was hating it. Yeah, you know, Goff was four, was four, two up, had two break points to go, a double break up.

26:28She served for the set Goff at five, four. She was 30 love up. And then Sabalenka won eight points in a row and did so with some brilliant tennis. You know, there was one point where she came forward. There was a brilliant forehand pass sort of up the line, some big serving in there as well. Just brilliant stuff. And then we landed in the tie break. And look, I know Sabalenka did lose that tie break to Jessica Bergula the other day, but she's still so good in these tie breaks. And then again, she was down in it, but stepped it up and mounted the comeback. And I'm so impressed with that by Sabalenka, you know, like, you know, Gough was gunning for her in that first set because Gough pretty much knew, I think, that she needed to win in straights to get through.

27:14and she just withstood Goff who was playing well in that first set and all the flashbacks and emotions that comes from that matchup I think and she just kept it together and then raised her level when she needed to and then race clear in that second set that was a that was a strong effort from Sabalenka today I thought. One of my favorite things about her is when she gets upset and is clearly bothered by her own form by the circumstances she's having it looks like she's having a terrible time and yet she can still play and she can sometimes it can go off i mean we've seen it in those matches against coco golf actually usually and i think this is maybe a big one that that she's sort of weathered it this time but you know she just any other player you would you would kind of think oh well she's not going to be able to focus on the next point after that and yet she does she she just grips the racket even more ferociously and goes after it i love it did you see arena savilenka's return position in that second set billy jean did it was like you know gav mcmillan is sat there on the sidelines the bloke you know arena savilenka's ex-coach that koko got poached in order to bring in and fix her serve i know there's no beef between those two.

28:43I've seen the TikToks. I know it's all fine. But I also saw where Sabalenka was standing to return that serve. And it was a dismissive return position. It was way inside the baseline. It was, oh, you brought him in to fix your serve, did you? That's gone well, hasn't it? That's what that return position was saying. And look, her serve wasn't nearly as bad today or in the second match as it was in her first match against Jessica Pegula. I think she took a bit of pace off it today, was my sense. Went back to a sort of slightly more US Open-y approach. But yeah, I think Coco Gauff, as great a competitor as she is, as much as she loves the sport and being out there and getting her teeth stuck in, I think she's ready for the end of the season, Matt.

29:38I think she's okay with not having a match to play tomorrow, put it that way. Yeah, I think so. And that's probably really important to remember that, right? Like, I feel like so often we talk about players experiencing burnout, but actually Coco Goff probably isn't top of that list for me. Like, I don't often think of her necessarily as one of those players, but I think it comes to pretty much everyone. And when you're having the struggles that she's had with her game as well, I feel like almost every match she's played this year has been some sort of ordeal or mentally exhausting or challenging.

30:23She's been battling herself as much as her own opponent at times and I think that must be tiring. And she's already made it very clear how she sees this time of the season. you know she's had some great success post in the post-us open period some of her biggest successes have been in the post-us open period with a slightly different mindset she's had that success because she dgaf apparently right so i think that combined with tiredness combined with the struggles with the game like even sort of superhuman coco goff is is is gonna feel it eventually and yeah it does feel like she's been ready for the end of the season.

31:07Jessica Bagula threw in second place in the Steffi Graf group, so she will play Elena Rabatkinner in the semi-finals. I mean, she must be ready for the end of the season as well, Bagula. She just keeps going, doesn't she? I know it's sort of such a tired take to say Jessica Bagula is underrated, But I'm going to say it because I think I underrate Jessica Pagula. I really do. Like, she's some player and some competitor and a real credit to the sport. She always leaves it all out there. She's a real credit to the sport. You wouldn't catch me underrating anybody.

31:54But Jessica Pagula, actually, I do think... You know what, David? this was a big week for Jasmine Paolini being a good draw. Well, yes, because I mean, I think Pagula's eight previous wins had been in deciding sets. And then today along comes poor Jasmine Paolini and finally Pagula manages a straight sets win. Yeah, I think maybe David could have got a straight sets win over Jasmine Paolini in the state she was in. and they had run out of alternates so i don't know yeah incredible but i did you know to answer your question i mean i do think i do think we are guilty probably because the type of player she is of damning i would faint praise a little bit you know and i i'd like to think some of that has changed the last few months it is not only is it a great example of somebody who just doesn't quit doesn't doesn't sort of have an off button really when she decides to go for it she gives you a performance pretty much all the time there was you know there's been that one a few years ago when she was on empty but what she's done this this autumn fall as uh as uh they call it um is is unreal to me that the because when the season the grand slam season ends I think it is so normal for these top players to have a bit of a dip or to wonder whether they can be that bothered when they've done as much as they already have.

33:33And she just, there's not been a bit of that from her. She's been one of the players of this swing. All these three set matches, just digging in, great matches, sometimes uncharacteristic type matches as well, where she kind of chokes a bit or she saves loads and loads of match points. and yet she's still winning. I actually love watching her matches against these big hitters, watching her figure it out because she's kind of a counter-punching big hitter. She's not stand and deliver, knock you off the court power, but she can retaliate. And yeah, it's fantastic the fact that she's so often in this position.

34:15And I think I've wondered with Pagula, you know, she's kind of older than you think because she's only really been like a top player kind of since the pandemic, really. I think it's easy to think of her as in the same age bracket as some of these players that she's been really consistent alongside over the last few years. But she is quite a lot older than them. And I had to start to wonder whether there was going, you know, whether that sort of decline was going to come. And I think in particular, her Grand Slam results this year, certainly the first few slams of the year you know when she lost to Boisson and Cochiretto you know over Roland Garros and Wimbledon you know sort of looking back now I think at the time they felt like sort of disappointing losses but I did wonder whether they were part of a you know bigger picture of maybe maybe a bit of Jessica Bergoula decline but she's just been so good over the last few months she's just sort of made that not the case and made me really feel confident that she still can compete with the very, very best players in the world because she herself is one of the very best players in the world.

35:25And I think when she reflects on her season, she will be disappointed by her slam results generally. But this little portion of the season post-US Open has sort of reaffirmed my belief that actually she's not going anywhere yet. You know, she still is right up there with the best of them. and, you know, potentially capable of even winning this tournament. You know, she's so good.

35:53OK, well, that's round robin over. Matt, you can breathe a sigh of relief. No, I love it. I love round robin. You know, it allows you to lose your first match and then win your next two and keep up a prediction. That's suddenly a convert. I've always said that. I've always loved it. OK, we will talk about the knockout matches in part three.