Did America Just Win the Trade War?

0:00Hello, everyone. We've got a lot to discuss today. The United States of America has finally struck a deal with China, and it looks like we're going to be winning once again. The inflation numbers just came in and things are looking positive as predicted. And Steve Jobs, the goat of technology, he dropped some gems for us to remember that you must evolve or die. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:30Donald Trump and China's President Xi seem to be making up like old lovers. Yesterday, Trump announced a trade deal with China that has been agreed to and is subject to final approval. Here's his exact message. Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval with President Xi and me. full magnets in any necessary rare earths will be supplied up front by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and our universities, which has always been good with me. We are getting a total of 55 % tariffs. China is getting 10%. Relationship is excellent.

1:06Thank you for your attention to this matter. I mean, it's kind of crazy and absolutely hilarious to see our relationship is excellent. After all the jawboning these two countries did with each other for the last few months. In the end, this was all just a big exercise in the United States, the big bad USA getting a better trade deal than we had had before. I also find it interesting that China was so focused on allowing Chinese students to use American colleges and universities. Next time someone tells you how horrible America is, just remember one thing. We may have plenty of issues. We may need to improve a lot of things, but we are still better than most other options in the world.

1:42So where do we go from here? What's next? Are we all just going to forget about what happened over the last couple of weeks? I think we're going to see similar deals announced around the world. At least that's what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CNBC yesterday. Take a listen to this. You guys have set the deadline for early July to have more trade deals. We're expecting more to come. What can you tell us about the progress of any of the ones you're working on? We thought Japan, India were close. We got this framework from the UK. But what else is coming there? Oh, there are so many coming, but when you've got Scott Jameson and I spending, you know, 25 hours locked in a room with the Chinese, we're not really doing the other deals.

2:22Yes, our teams are moving them forward, but, you know, now we're going to be focused, starting today, we're going to be focused on other deals. We're going to get them done. We're in good shape with lots of countries, but good shape isn't good enough for the United States of America. We want great deals that are fundamental for America. We can get them. We can get them done. We need to open these other countries' markets. Our farmers, our ranchers, our fishermen, they are going to have just a great time. Our machinists, we sell lots of equipment overseas. Boeing always does amazingly well in these deals.

2:57So this is the key to us. Can we open up our exports and end this nonsense of a$1.2 trillion trade deficit? And that's what we're working on. And you're going to see deal after deal. This is going to start coming next week and the week after and the week after. We've got lots of them in the hopper. We just want to make sure they're the best deal we possibly can make. We don't want to rush. And Donald Trump is never going to accept the rush. He only accepts the best from us. And we're going to give it to him. 25 hours locked in a room with the Chinese? These guys are working their butts off for us.

3:28And you've got to appreciate the fact that they're getting results, too. Open the markets. Bring down the foreign tariffs on us. And let's get a more even playing field. I like our shot in any international negotiation. We got the inflation numbers yesterday, and oh boy, do the doomsdayers look as ridiculous once again. Inflation came in at levels less than expectations, which proves once again that tariffs are not inflationary. The CPI data, it's backwards looking. Don't take my word for it, though. Here's CNBC sharing the good news. There's no way to look at these numbers and say they're not welcome news.

4:02I mean, a downside surprise to core. Core goods is where people were looking for potentially tariff effects and maybe except for isolated areas that Steve mentioned. You're not quite getting that. And by the way, maybe you don't like CNBC. Maybe you think they're too slanted one way. Well, here's CNN saying a similar thing. Well, John, look, we got another month of positive inflation news. Despite these historic tariffs, the latest numbers do show that inflation remained relatively tame in May. So the big number is the annual rate that came in at 2.4%. That is a slight acceleration from 2.3 % in April, but this was better than expected.

4:44Month over month, prices were up by just 0.1%. Again, that's better than expected. And that's actually a deceleration from what we saw in April. Now, one reason why these inflation numbers came in very much better than expected is because we did see a drop in energy prices. In particular, gas prices were low. And if you think CNN's not good, well, here's one of my favorite reporters on the economy, Heather Long. She said not much signs of tariffs yet on inflation. Keep an eye on grocery and food prices. Those jumped higher in May and could be on early sign of tariff impacts. But overall, rent continues to be the primary inflation driver.

5:24gas prices and apparel were down in May. But here's the deal. We're not out of the woods yet, but it looks like tariffs were not inflationary exactly as I told you. But here's where I may surprise you. I actually do believe inflation is now going to start picking up in the coming months. We know the money supply is growing and as famed economist Milton Friedman said, inflation is only created in one place, Washington. Trueflation, the alternative inflation metric, shows a reading of 1.9%, which means we went from 3 % inflation in December to 1.2 % earlier this year, and now we're back to 1.9%.

5:57So what exactly is driving this increase? Well, the government is going to print money, and they are going to expand the national debt. They don't want to do it. They are doing the best they can to fight the increases, but we're watching the bureaucratic machine that is going to win the war. I hate it. I don't like it. I wish it didn't happen, but that isn't going to stop the inevitable. As Lynn Alden always says, there is no stopping this train, and Lynn is dead right on that. No truer words have been spoken. I'm just glad that I own some Bitcoin. Hopefully, you've been paying attention too over the last few years.

6:29Steve Jobs, he is the goat of technology. Every once in a while, I see a video of him and it honestly just makes me nostalgia. The guy was incredible when it came to product design, marketing, and he really, really understood what technology could do to better improve people's lives. And guess what? Steve understood one thing. Technology is constantly changing. Take a listen to him talking right here. All the work that I've done in my life will be obsolete by the time I'm 50. Apple II is obsolete now. Apple I's were obsolete many years ago. The Macintosh is on the verge of becoming obsolete in the next few years.

7:04This is a field where one does not write a principia which holds up for 200 years. This is not a field where one paints a painting that will be looked at for centuries or builds a church that will be admired and looked at in astonishment for centuries. No, this is a field where one does one's work and in 10 years it's obsolete and really will not be usable within 10 or 20 years. I mean, you can't go back and use an Apple I because there's no software for it. In another 10 years or so, you won't be able to use an Apple II. You won't be able to fire it up and see what it was like. It's sort of like sediments of rocks.

7:33I mean, you're building up a mountain and you get to contribute your little layer of sedimentary rock to make the mountain that much higher. But no one on the surface will, unless they have x-ray vision, will see your sentiment. They'll stand on it. You know, it'll be appreciated by that rare geologist. Now, I got to say, watching that, that's a pretty beautiful thing. Change is constant. Competition, it breeds innovation. You got to evolve or you die. And technologists understand that better than anyone. It doesn't matter where you come from. Somebody somewhere is trying to take your spot in the world.

8:05They're trying to take down your company. They're trying to build a better product. And they're coming for your customers. Steve Jobs understood that. That's why he constantly kept innovating. That's why he pushed Apple to the brink to prove what technology could really do. And I gotta say, man, he's missed. The recent updates at Apple, a lot of suspect conversation about what's going on there. But here's what I do know. Steve Jobs, he's the GOAT. And if he says evolve or die, hey, I'm gonna listen. That's it for today's show. I hope you guys are enjoying this. I'm having a blast putting it together.

8:36Please make sure that you're following on X and also subscribe to the YouTube channel. I'll see you guys live tomorrow from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.