Is The Bull Market Over?

0:00Hello, everyone. Asset prices are crashing and everyone's freaking out. Chicago's treasurer just made one of the craziest investment decisions I've ever seen. Jeff Parkes. going to explain if$100 ,000 is Bitcoin's new base, and we finally have a second American company who has successfully landed a reusable rocket. We are live today from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.

0:29Before we get into today's show, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. We currently have 37 ,933. Hit the button and push us closer to that goal. Together, we'll get there. Let's get into today's show. Ladies and gentlemen, there is no other way to put it. Yesterday was a rough one in financial markets. Tech stocks, Bitcoin, many other investment assets, they were all caught in the sea of red. It seemed like nothing could hide from the paint. Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas showed that everything was done and down, including short-term treasuries. This sell-off led people to ask the question, is this bull market over?

1:06Well, that answer is a little bit more complicated than you or I may think or want to hear. Take stocks as just one simple example. Carson Group's Ryan Dietrich has done a great job highlighting all of the intra-week performance of different days and how those different days' performance stacks up. As you can see from this chart here, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, they've been positive performance. Thursday and Friday, ooh boy, we turned negative. So yesterday's negative performance is in line with how the market has been trading all year. Nothing to worry about there. Now, in fact, Eric Bauchunas explains that S &P trading volume was potentially a positive sign in the grand scheme of things.

1:43He says that if there's a silver lining, it's that SPY's volume was somewhat subdued. You can see it's elevated, but not even in the top 20 days of this year. Usually that indicates some sort of short-lived sell-off versus higher volume, which indicates deeper freakouts, but who knows? So is the bull market in stocks over? Probably not, but never say never. This would have been one of the shortest bull markets in history, but just because it would have been one of the shortest doesn't mean that it couldn't have happened though. When Bush's Dan Ives, he's a permabull, he remains firmly bullish.

2:14In regards to the sell-off, Dan says, we view this as short-lived mini panic moment for tech stocks, as we believe tech stocks will have a major rally into the rest of the year as investors look to play the AI revolution. and the second, third, fourth derivatives now playing out, both across consumer and enterprise names. That's pretty bullish. Bitcoin wasn't safe either. It was also down yesterday. The asset is known for its asymmetry, but investors have been relatively disappointed with its performance year-to-date as well. Joe Consorti writes, Bitcoin is now up only 4.2 % year-to-date compared to the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ, which are up 14.5 % and 18.9 % respectively.

2:54That is not why many investors are buying Bitcoin as an asset. They want explosive returns. They want to go up, up, up, and to the right. They don't want sideways action that's outperformed by major equity indexes. That's boring. That's boomer stuff, they'd say. On the flip side, the digital currency is only up 6 % over the last year, yet it is up 500 % in the last five years. Investing's hard. Certain assets perform well at different times. Add in the uncertainty of monetary policy, geopolitics, and capital flows. This complex economic machine can be very difficult to predict. But here's the thing that gives me peace of mind during drawdowns like we're living through right now.

3:32The best companies, they're going to continue to perform over the long run. Bitcoin, the hard, resilient, sound money, it's going to thrive over the years. Anyone worried about certain price action day to day, they increase their odds of making bad decisions. Those who can buy great assets and hold them for a long time, they're going to do well. Everyone calm down. Take a deep breath. That timeless investing principle of buying great assets and holding it forever? It's timeless for a reason. So chill out. Everything's going to be just fine. This has got to be one of the wildest headlines you're ever going to see in finance.

4:07Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyers Irvin announced Wednesday that she will launch a boycott against investing the city's cash in U.S. Treasury securities in a protest against President Donald Trump. Now, just so we're clear, I'm not a fan of treasuries. I think bonds, they're losing trade for the most part. But the insanity here is less focused on the outcome or the decision and more focused on the rationale behind the decision. Politics and investing, they usually do not mix well. And somebody who's in charge of taxpayer money at the city level, saying that they're not gonna buy treasuries, they're not gonna protect the cash and earn a little bit of interest on what's sitting there, that's crazy.

4:47And doing it for political reasons as a quote unquote boycott, that's just plain stupid. it. When I saw this headline, all it told me is some people, their brains are broken. It makes zero sense to do this. And it's hurting the American taxpayer. You may not like who's in office on either side of the aisle, but using taxpayer money and trying to weaponize it and doing it by not buying treasuries, that is just plain S-T-U-P-I-D. I recently sat down with Jeff Park. He has a theory that$100K,$100 ,000 Bitcoin price, it could be a new consolidation base. Take a listen to Jeff's logic here. The demand and the put, if you will, as you've described it, is definitely there.

5:28So that's something we should take some relief in. Nonetheless, it has been discouraging that we've had many peaks to troughs drawdown this year over a mainstream cycle than otherwise we should expect. I think there's like eight different counts of drawdowns at this point where we can't expand outside of like a 20 % range. And Bitcoin, as we know, needs a little bit of volatility to make breakout moves. So the question is, why is there selling pressure at any given time? And one of the metrics that I think is really interesting, and Glassnode does a really great job presenting it, is this metric called short-term holder realized profit to loss ratio.

6:04And that metric actually hit 0.2 earlier this week. What that means is that 80 % of those who have been acquiring Bitcoin recently are underwater, and they're the ones that are selling. So this is not the same narrative of the giant whales that have been sleeping for 15 years and coming to market and selling thousands of Bitcoins at a time. We're continuing to see that kick in. But there is a little bit of capitulation, if you will, with short-term investors who came in as well. that I think is healthy because those are generally the same people who come back to buy when there's momentum of a breakout.

6:41So that money can actually be more of an accelerant in the future. But nonetheless, there is definitely some kind of supply that seems to be ever present between this 110, 115k range. And anytime you go near there, there is some downward pressure. And that's why I think everyone is so focused on the 100k because when you look at the range of where the back bids would be beyond that, it starts to thin out a little bit where we can imagine we're going to start testing 95 and ranges that otherwise we would be disappointed to see at this point of the cycle. But it's not been great that the ETF inflows have turned a little bit negative.

7:18It's not great that the treasury companies have not been able to buy as much as people had anticipated, even though Saylor has been doing heroic things, coming up with new preferred structures, as has strived to permit the opportunity to have more digital credit in the space. But in the end, we probably still do need more of that flow to come in to offset what otherwise is coming to be some persistent supply. I always like talking to Jeff. He's incredibly smart, makes me feel kind of dumb sometimes, and he's got very unique insights, and this is no different. I'd love to hear what you guys think.

7:49Leave a comment. Tell me, do you agree with Jeff or do you not? It's going to be very interesting to watch Bitcoin's price over the coming months. Every once in a while, something happens that just gets you jacked up about American innovation. Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos' rocket company, they landed their reusable rocket yesterday. This is only the second company in history. For everyone who claims the United States cannot manufacture anything, remember, America has produced the only two companies in human history that can launch a rocket into space and bring it back down to Earth in a reusable way.

8:23It's just incredible. American innovation, American entrepreneurs, American capitalism, dominant on the global stage. If it was so easy, someone else would have done it elsewhere, but only in America. Elon Musk originally thought of reusable rockets something like 30 years ago. He's been working hard at it. Now we've got two companies. Kudos to Musk to pioneering, but kudos to Jeff Bezos for fast following and being able to recreate the same technology. The more companies we have that can help us access space, the better. It's going to drop the cost of space access. It's also going to increase what we can do there to help here on Earth.

9:01And my guess is there's a bunch of little kids all around the world that see engineers, entrepreneurs, launching things and landing them. They're going to be inspired to go and study science, math, technology. And that's the type of thing that keeps the innovation engine running. Blue Origin, welcome to the game. It's great to see you here. I can't wait for many other companies to fast follow and continue to innovate here in America. That's it for today's show. Thank you guys so much for watching. Please remember to subscribe on YouTube, 37 ,933 of you already did. Don't be the one that's left out.

9:36Hit the subscribe button and I'll see you guys on Monday, live from the desk of Anthony Pompliano.