Large cap the place to be as US uncertainty grows

0:12Jason Da Silva: Hello and welcome to the latest edition of the FT Advisor podcast. I'm David Thorpe, Senior Investment Editor at FT Advisor. Today's topic is the outlook for US equities after what has been, it's fair to say, a turbulent period for the asset class. albeit one which has seen a number of record highs more recently. And joining me to discuss the topic are Alex Crook, Manager of the Bankers Investment Trust for Janice Henderson, Jason De Silva, Global Investment Strategist at Arbuthnot Latham, and Daniel White, Head of Global Equities and Manager of M &G's North American Value Fund. Good morning all and thank you very much for joining.

0:51Jason Da Silva: Morning. Morning. If we come to you, Alex, for the first question, and then Jason and then Daniel, just to have the generalists and then the specialists at the end. So no pressure on you at the end. Alex, do investors need to think slightly differently about US equity exposure when the public policy environment in the US is maybe less certain than has been priced in in the past?

1:17Dan White: Well, that's an understatement, isn't it? of less certain. It's been very volatile the last six months. But I think, you know, to some extent, that's the headlines. You know, the headlines are there, you know, and there's lots of genuine worries when you dig down into those. But the reality is the US economy is, frankly, huge and grinds on in its own little way, you know, producing profits for a lot of companies. So when you look at the economy, it has had a slowdown. It's had a slowdown in goods. So that uncertainty of tariffs and maybe some pricing here and there has led to less purchases of cars, less purchases of white goods, etc.

1:53Dan White: But actually the services side, which is 60 % of the US economy, is continuing growth at its normal sort of steady rate. And so that's kept economic growth going. I think therefore profits for a lot of companies have been growing. And now the uncertainty is beginning to lift. As we had the Euro-European deal hopefully announced yesterday, we're beginning to see maybe through that uncertainty and can focus back on, well, what is the economy doing and what is purchasing going on and how are companies behaving in that environment? Still some uncertainties. Tariffs definitely haven't hit the market yet, so we don't know the impact of some price rises that will inherently come through.

2:32Dan White: But I think, no, the economy and the companies we're investing in, you know, you judge them each by their own merits, and generally the larger ones certainly are doing pretty well.

2:42Jason Da Silva: Thank you, Alex. And Jason, tariffs and tweets have been preoccupying investors this year. How important have they been to your thoughts and your work? So I'd say, you know, maybe thinking about from the policy uncertainty angle in totality, I think a lot of this has to do, you know, how I think is very relative. So yes, certainly, you know, in April it's been, it was quite stark. But, you know, you've seen through May, June, July, markets kind of got over the wall of worry. I think also what investors probably didn't price in as much on April 2nd was just the ability for corporates to maybe mitigate a lot of these issues.

3:21Jason Da Silva: And you're seeing that really coming to the fore at the moment. So I think companies are really reacting to the policy at hand. And more often than not, you always find companies manage to find a will in the way. In terms of policy uncertainty more broadly, I think it's relative to other countries as well. So you look at Japan. I mean, they have huge policy uncertainty. China as well. We don't have to touch on the UK for too long either. Massive policy uncertainty. So just because there's massive policy uncertainty in the US, on a relative basis, I don't think it's more than any other nation. So I think from US equities, we still have a relatively positive view just because by far on the way, the biggest economy with the fastest earnings growth.

4:03Jason Da Silva: Thank you, Jason. Daniel, your phone's called North American Value. Is it harder to find value when the policy environment is so muddled?

4:14Alex Crooke: Yeah, so you're right. There is a high degree of uncertainty right now within the US economy. I think if I take a step back, uncertainty, although it can feel uncomfortable for investors, uncertainty and volatility that's often associated with that is often a great source of opportunity. Some of the more attractive long-term investment opportunities that we've found over time have come about or come during periods of perceived uncertainty, high volatility. So we shouldn't necessarily shy away from that uncertainty. I guess kind of thinking about the US equity market more broadly right now, I would kind of break the question down into sort of two key parts.

5:00Alex Crooke: The first is whether we think the US equity market continues to be a good source of investment opportunities. And I guess the term so-called American exceptionalism feels a little bit out of date right now. It feels very much a 2024 phenomena. But I think it is worth remembering historically US corporates in aggregate have delivered higher revenue growth. They deliver higher operating profit margins, high return on invested capital than what you can see and observe in many other countries and regions. And there are a number of kind of structural tailwinds that have contributed to those fundamentals, those positive fundamentals.

5:43Alex Crooke: And I would expect those tailwinds to persist over time. So we do think the US market is attractive as a source of investment opportunities. But I guess the kind of second part of thinking about the market is really about how much capital investors want to allocate to the US equity market right now. And I think here the picture is maybe a little bit more mixed. So I think as everyone around this table would observe and agree with, aggregate valuations within the US equity market right now are at the kind of loftier end on traditional multiples relative to perhaps history, relative to what you can find in other regions.

6:28Alex Crooke: And really high level, just from a more, I guess, common sense perspective, if you think about the US, it's 5 % of the world's population, maybe a quarter of global GDP, a third of aggregates, corporate profits globally. yet despite the underperformance this year, US equity market still contributes or makes up over 65 % of the global equity market. So it's still a very big portion of the global equity market. So we think within the market there's a great source of opportunities and still find really attractive investments. But I do think investors may want to consider allocating outside of the US on an increasing basis, just given how concentrated and how big it's become from a global equity perspective.

7:17Jason Da Silva: Thank you. And Daniel, if we come to you first for the next question, you've sort of touched on how big it's become from a global perspective. And a lot of that has been driven, of course, by the large cap US and by a small number of large cap within the US. And as a US value manager, how do you think about exposure to those handful of stocks?

7:36Alex Crooke: Yeah, no, that's a really good question. I think one of the ways that we kind of think about this or one of the observations that we can make is if you look at the performance of the traditional S &P 500s, the broad US equity market index, that's a market capitalized weighted index. And if you compare the performance of that benchmark or index versus the equally weighted index, so still the same 500 companies, but weighted equally rather than by market cap. Over the medium to longer term, those two kind of benchmarks actually perform broadly in line with one another. But what we've seen more recently over the last kind of two or three years is significant outperformance of the traditional market cap weighted index.

8:25Alex Crooke: And that really points to the sort of the dominance and the outperformance of those large and mega cap companies. If you just look at the top 10, for example, top 10 companies within the US today account for about 35 % of the S &P 500. And that is the more concentrated end relative to history. And that part of the market does trade on a more elevated valuation multiple versus what you can see lower down the market capitalisation spectrum. But at the same time I would caution against I guess treating those large companies as just kind of one homogenous monolith you know within the top 10 largest companies in the US right now you know you do have although they are somewhat weighted or heavily weighted towards the technology sector you do have a broad variety of different business models JP Morgan a bank just about sneaks into the top 10 companies right now you do have a range of valuation multiples so alphabet for example trades on a kind of mid mid to high teens valuation multiple something like kind of tesla trades on north of 100 times forward earnings so even within the the the larger part of the market although valuations are kind of higher than what we can see elsewhere there are kind of some differentiated opportunities I think we can find.

9:51Jason Da Silva: Thank you. And Jason, same question really. The large cap end of the US market, is that attractive right now? Is that where the opportunity set is? I think so at the moment. So I think actually we actually see the large cap and the concentration is actually more a feature of this type of market environment than necessarily a bug. You know, we talk about market concentration and sector concentration. back 100, 120 years ago, you actually had two sectors take about 80 % to 100 % of the market, which was energy and oil and banks as well. So it's not to say that the market can't respond to the changing dynamics within the economy.

10:34Jason Da Silva: And I think there's also been a shift in terms of financial metrics as well. So if you compare large caps to small caps since 2005, Large caps have seen an increase in operating margins Small caps have seen a fall And also we've seen some good work Where the kind of the myth of the small cap premium Is actually somewhat of a myth Large caps continue to do well And in 2010 to 2025 Have really come to market leadership So we like large caps Also if you see how the economy's changed A lot more tech orientated And that just, you know, pivots these type of economies, these type of companies to, you know, those with a lot more network effects.

11:21Jason Da Silva: These companies have a lot more higher returns of capital as well. And so, yeah, we like the large capital space. And then secondly, from a tactical standpoint, why we like it is if you look at the market at the moment, the economy at the moment, it's relatively late cycle. and so you want to be in these defensive, quality, high-margin businesses that will help you kind of see through this very uncertain economic backdrop. Thank you. Alex, Bankers and Investment Trust is a global vehicle but it's also an income vehicle, right? I don't know what the term is but it's had however many years of consecutive dividend growth.

11:57Jason Da Silva: So as an income guy, is the top end of the US market interesting and relevant for you?

12:05Dan White: Oh, always. Yeah. I mean, the scale of it has to be, you can't ignore it. I mean, I slightly think maybe a different way to those two comments in that I think there's almost two markets in there these days. And one is clearly the Mag 7. You might want to drop Tesla and chuck in Broadcom, but you still get these sort of six or seven stocks, which are, to my mind, just dominated by the AI story and largely investors' enthusiasm and their own enthusiasm through the capital expenditure. And then there's the rest of the economy, which and the rest of the stocks. And if we park the AI for a minute, the rest of the market is behaving to some extent how you'd expect it to be in the economic conditions.

12:45Dan White: So slowing growth, you know, yes, and rates going up, and therefore the financials are done really well, because higher returns on cash. We've had, you know, some struggles and those defensive names, farmer has been been a nightmare. But again, maybe regulatory, maybe other aspects in there. But those other stocks, I think, are very interesting because there's some value in there. And there are some sectors that are definitely offering some cheapness, assuming the economy picks up next year. It doesn't. More tricky. And then you've got this AI, which is basically a third of the market and growing in earnings probably at 15 % to 20 % when the rest of the market's barely static at maybe 5 % growth.

13:26Dan White: But some of them you're paying up, others you're not. But the big issue is, are they going to get a return in a reasonable time on the investment they're spending? Because their core businesses are very profitable. But if that new investment is on a lower return, then it's going to drag down margins and how do investors see that? So that's a tricky one. And we are playing sort of four or five out of the six or seven, whichever you want to take it. And actually, to be honest, getting a little bit worried about the ever-increasing levels of CapEx because does that mean ever more capital has lower return down the road?

13:59Dan White: So it's getting incrementally trickier, I think, to keep buying those names. But they are, back to your income, we had Meta and we have Alphabet, which owns Google, paying dividends for the first time. And so, yes, in terms of cash returns, we're starting to see some return coming through, admittedly of very low yield. So you don't buy the market for the yield, but as an indicator of the growth in the CapEx, sort of cash flow, then it's pretty interesting to us.

14:28Jason Da Silva: Thank you for that, Alex. Jason, the US economy has proven to be resilient this year to date. Alex mentioned earlier we haven't really seen any negative effect of tariffs take hold yet, if we do at all. But does that present opportunities from your point of view further down the market cap scale? So I think it's quite tricky with small caps at the moment. So if you look at the Russell 2000, roughly 30 % of its EBITDA goes to interest costs, and you compare that to the large caps, which is below 10%. So I think for us to get a little bit more bullish on the lowest side of the spectrum in terms of capitalization, market capitalizations, we'd have to see a bit more evidence of interest rate cuts.

15:12Jason Da Silva: If you do see interest rate cuts, I think that the lower end of the market cap will rally. So, you know, taking a step back, you know, the lower end of the market cap tends to react when, you know, the more cyclical side of the economy tends to perform well. You know, typically the manufacturing sector. And that's still relatively moribound. You know, it's not quite expanding, not quite declining, kind of going along at the trough. until you see stronger evidence of that side of the economy, I think you can get a little bit more comfortable on the lower end of the market cap. So you've seen a couple other market sectors take a bit of a hit, like healthcare has taken a bit of a hit as well because of all the policies coming in terms of drug pricing, Medicaid and Medicare pricing as well.

16:05Jason Da Silva: So I think that could be a sector to look at outside of the big tech. So, yeah, but, you know, kind of going back to what I said earlier, you know, if we see interest rates coming quite aggressively or the manufacturing side of the economy comes through, then we'll be a bit more aggressive in terms of outside of the large cap sector. Thank you. And from your point of view, Daniel, are you finding value in what sense is that word or further down the market cap scale?

16:36Alex Crooke: Yeah, so I wouldn't sort of disagree with Jason's. very good point he makes around the capital structure of some of the small and mid-sized companies and being more interest rate sensitive. I do think as a US value manager, that small and mid-cap part of the market is probably the biggest source of really interesting ideas today. But with the kind of caveat that one absolutely needs to be very selective in terms of identifying names and opportunities in in in that part of the market because as jason talked about you know inevitably or often that they're carrying a bit more leverage they are a little bit more kind of macro sensitive however given that there's a kind of top-down i guess perception of that part of the market we can often find individual opportunities that have maybe kind of been overlooked or sort of sold off because of the kind of broader asset allocation kind of view or perception.

17:37Alex Crooke: So, for example, we own a consumer battery company, so not electric vehicles, batteries that goes into kind of remote controls or children's toys. It's a three-player market. It's quite stable, predictable end market. They do have a little bit of leverage, but they've kind of termed out that leverage and so on. impacted by the interest rate environment. And that's a stock that kind of sold off aggressively during Liberation Day due to the kind of wider kind of concerns because of that small and mid-cap space and hasn't really kind of participated in the rebound or rally that we've seen in the market more broadly subsequently.

18:20Alex Crooke: And today is a company that's trading on a kind of single-digit PE multiple, so very, very cheap on an absolute basis and also relative history for what is, we feel, a relatively high-quality business, say, consolidated markets, stable demand, and trading on a really attractive valuation.

18:40Jason Da Silva: Thank you. Alex, you alluded to the attractiveness of the top end, but there's not a lot of dividends there. Do you go further down the market cap scale to get them?

18:51Dan White: No, I don't think you do. I think, you know, it is economically sensitive, So you tend to buy small cap when economic growth is picking up. You know, again, I think we're seeing slowing growth in the US and this year is probably a write off and it's next year's story about growth picking up, hopefully, if rates it. So that still pushes you into next somewhere into next year. On top of that, you know, tariffs will affect small companies. You know, some of them, yes, will get a small advantage from less imported goods. But then a lot of them are importing goods and using that as well and therefore have got some pricing issues.

19:22Dan White: So, you know, the large cap then, though, has got a weaker dollar and a lot of tariff barriers to international markets are being reduced or eliminated in Trump's sort of move through tax. So those bigger companies have suddenly got more opportunities in the exporting market. I like that. And I think, yeah, you're paying up for it. But I think the growth there is going to continue to outstrip that from the mid and small sized companies. So I still think, yes, for the next six to nine months, maybe you stay in those bigger names. I think you'll see a better bang for your buck than you will there.

19:55Now, for yield, yeah, it's still tricky.

19:58Dan White: But you've got some interesting divider. Banks are growing and throwing off cash. You've got some of the commodity areas, which have been very dull, really dull, and not have big yields. So, again, some quiet bottom fishing in some of those names might be interesting. And there's some of those in the U.S. market. But, yeah, tricky still for income.

20:18Jason Da Silva: Thank you, Alex. And on that point, really, I mean, you referenced the weakness of the dollar, and I'm sure that's positive for many companies. But for your shareholders in the trust and broadly for clients that are in the UK and you pay out, you know, sterling dividends and sterling is how they think about the world. And the dollar has declined against sterling by, I think, 8 or 9 percent year to date. How does that impact how you look at your US equity allocation?

20:49Dan White: Yeah, no, it's definitely taking the shine off things. And we did cut allocations sort of into that. You never hit the right at the top in February, March, ahead of that Liberation Day announcement, which I didn't quite see the scale of this, Taris, but I didn't feel it was going to be good reading from international investors. So we did cut into that, and that was when the dollar was sort of beginning to peak. And it does affect things. Yes, it's taken the shine off, definitely, you know, returns from, you know, the local market. But again, it swings and roundabouts. It shows opportunities as well.

21:22Dan White: And I sort of see why we're here. I'm not sure why you'd have another leg down. A lot of commentators, you know, extremely worried about, you know, the Fed, independence of the Fed and independence of how interest rates are being taken there. And we'll, you know, undoubtedly see how that one goes. But I'm not sure I'm a big buyer of sort of the dollar does another 10 or 20 percent fall. it's still a market i see as attracting capital we've got you know obviously huge commitments to spend and increase manufacturing that's a lot of purchases of dollars uh required to do that so i think we've probably seen the worst and and back to my point what are the positives then well it's u.s companies definitely are slightly more competitive internationally and we get another bite at the cherry hopefully of buying some of those so maybe that nets things off and it's a good opportunity to start to ease a little bit more money into the US market.

22:11Dan White: Thank you, Alex.

22:16Jason Da Silva: And Daniel, the hunt for value in the US, is it helped or hindered by dollar?

22:23Alex Crooke: Yeah. So sort of FX dollars currency, it is an interesting topic because it's sometimes, I guess characterised as being a sort of silent contributor or detractor to our investment returns but I actually think it's kind of somewhat different from that. It's something that often gets overlooked by the market when it's working in one's favour and then perhaps gets a sort of disproportionate emphasis or focus when it's working against us. So obviously For UK-based investors this year, dollar weakness has been a bit of a headwind, but I think it is worth remembering and emphasising, I guess, the dollar strength that we saw in 2022 that really kind of insulated many UK investors from the sort of big drawdowns that we saw within the US equity market and really the stability of the dollar that we saw throughout 2023 and 2024 when investment returns were very, very strong.

23:29Alex Crooke: So I think it's important when we're talking about dollar weakness to sort of put it into a kind of longer term context. I think that said, I think it is a useful reminder this year that we perhaps need to get comfortable with the fact that maybe currencies are going to be a little bit more kind of volatile than perhaps we've been used to over the last couple of years. not least because some of the reasons and factors that we've talked about and that sort of overall uncertainty that we see, not just within the US, across lots of markets for today.

23:59Jason Da Silva: Thank you. And Jason, for your clients, obviously in the wealth management space, is it something that they've been noticing when their statement comes through? Have they noticed that maybe the market did this, but their number is actually that? No, we've been extremely busy fielding a lot of those questions and queries. And currencies are extremely difficult to deal with, particularly if you think about the fall in the dollar year to date. It's all about context. If you think about Q4 last year, the dollar was on a massive tear. And so if you look on a year-on-year basis, actually not as bad.

24:40Jason Da Silva: And then ditto with the U.S. market as well. The US market, particularly around the Trump election, was just absolutely flying. And so you've probably seen a little bit of payback year to date on that. Our messaging to clients is kind of twofold. When we think about the dollar, obviously the big two bugbears at the dollar is A, it's overvalued. So you've got to think about forward returns potentially are going to be weaker from the dollar. And then secondly, again, you know, thinking about the context is relative growth between the US and the rest of the world definitely did narrow relative to expectations in Q4.

25:17Jason Da Silva: So, you know, it's just thinking about those two things. But the valuation of the dollar is extremely, extremely crucial. But what I would say is, and this is the message that we have for clients, is if you look at the US market, about 40 % of the S &P 500's revenue comes from non-dollar currencies. And so there's this like natural offsetting mechanism within the U.S. market that if you have a weaker dollar, you know, earnings within the U.S. will do well, the U.S. markets. And then that should kind of offset some of the local currency or the pound currency returns that you will have. And it's all about whether the U.S.

25:54Jason Da Silva: market in pounds does better than, you know, the FTSE 100 in pounds, the stock 600 in pounds. And whilst in Q1 it was quite aggressively to the downside, you have started to see the U.S. market bouncing relative to the rest of the world, even in pounds over the last couple of weeks as this AR trade really starts to get new momentum. Thank you. And Jason, if we stick with you for the last question, from a wealth manager's perspective, you obviously have part of your client base who have income as a priority. is the US ever a dividend marketer? Would you have less, significantly less US for income clients than growth clients?

26:36Jason Da Silva: Yeah, it's an interesting one. And, you know, I've been thinking a lot about that. You know, so whilst it's on a yield base, it's never going to be like the UK markets, like the Australian markets, you know, because, you know, frankly, it's got a different sector composition. And, you know, in the US, obviously a lot of tech, These companies are reinvesting into growth, the CapEx plans that has been mentioned. And so, but having said that, you have seen Meta and Alphabet start to pay somewhat of a dividend. And I think for us, we're more concerned about the sustainability of dividends and if dividends grow.

27:14Jason Da Silva: I mean, you don't want to be in a place where something has a high yield. Think about imperial brands a couple of years ago, and then they cut dividends quite aggressively. So, you know, we really think about the sustainability of dividends. And then, you know, secondly, you know, when we think about from an asset allocation perspective, you know, you're really looking at, you know, you've got equities that pay high yields, but then you also got fixed income. That's, you know, particularly high yield has got, you know, 7 % to 8 % yield, potentially with lower volatility, more secure income because it's high on the capital stack.

27:46Jason Da Silva: So, you know, when we think about the US, you know, I wouldn't neglect, you know, maybe the debt side of the market. I know we're talking about equities, but, you know, can potentially give you as kind of nice a yield as some of these UK markets or Australian markets with high yields, but with maybe a bit less volatility. Thank you. Alex, I know we've touched on it, but you are the income guy here. So do you have, I suppose, would you expect always to have in Bank of Trust an allocation to the US that is less than, you know, the misky world or whatever? Is that inevitable as an income down?

28:24Dan White: No, I don't think it is. I mean, we are just under it at the moment and increasing allocation towards that index level. So we're sort of not far off now. And that's, yeah, that's had a little bit of pain in the short term. But as an investment trust, we've got revenue reserves. We've built up over the long term to help bridge that gap between the sort of two and a bit, two and a half yields that we pay out. I think the key has always been for income investors is not to reach too high for yield. And as soon as you get, we always had the magic numbers, usually about four. But as soon as you get over four, you're sort of starting to invest into much more slower growth.

29:02Dan White: Now, that may be good if the market's sort of volatile and we're into recession. You know, you want these sort of stable, steady growers. But actually, you're going to sacrifice some long-term return over a sort of 10-year period. And so I think the same is in the US, but the four in the US is probably two because of the market growth that we've seen over a number of years. But the US is growing dividends quicker than the rest of the world because earnings have been growing quicker. We have a very good long-term study that we've been producing quarterly for 15 years now. And it shows, yes, the US has grown dividends over that period 300%.

29:36Dan White: So it's a huge growth number on the back of those earnings. But don't go and reach into those 4 % or 5 % yielders because you're really sacrificing that long-term, I think, capital as well as income return. So there's still great sectors. I mean, I would point again US financials, plenty of capital buffers in there. We're going to see deregulation, allow them freeing them up some more capital. They'll use some of that to grow. No doubt they'll buy their shares back, as US companies all do. But definitely, they will be paying good dividends to investors. So that's a very fruitful area. And then I would also look in some of the consumer areas where consumer goods probably overpriced things in the recession and not in COVID and have been struggling a bit on volume.

30:19Dan White: But there's still some great names that are long-term compounders, great businesses, been left a bit behind. And certainly, we used to pay 25 times. you now get these things for high double-digit sort of multiples, but very good steady dividend growers. So again, have a look through the consumer sectors.

30:38Jason Da Silva: Thank you. And Daniel, last word on this topic. You're head of global equities. Can the US ever be a dividend market?

30:49Alex Crooke: Yeah, I think this sort of topic around dividends in the US is kind of really, really fascinating. I mean, it's something I kind of feel quite strongly about. I mean, I absolutely do believe that the US is a very important dividend market for investors and clients, but just perhaps not for the reasons that you would necessarily think or expect. It really is as a function of that kind of growth point that Alex mentions. So if you take a company like Mastercard, for example, the payment processing business, number two to Visa, that's a business that IPO'd back in 2006 and never in its listed history has it yielded more than one percent so it would have been overlooked by many kind of traditional income investors maybe search for a higher dividend yield but because of the power of the dividend growth because Mastercard's been able to grow its dividends so strongly over that period actually if you bought the shares at the IPO in 2006, your yield today on your initial investment would be about 65%.

31:58Alex Crooke: So every year you'd be getting 65 % of your initial capital back in dividends. And that absolutely, to me, fits the definition of an attractive dividend stock. And so for a number of reasons, I think US equities do offer an attractive source of dividend opportunities.

32:17Jason Da Silva: thank you for that Daniel White Head of Global Equities at MNG and Manager of MNG's North America Value Fund and thank you to Alex Crook Manager of the Bankers Investment Trust and Jason De Silva Director of Global Investment Strategy at Arbuthnot Latham thank you all for listening and please do remember to tune in to future editions of the FT Advisor Podcast thank you

32:46Thank you.

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