Multi-asset investors must ‘separate signal from noise’

0:12Hello and welcome to the latest edition of the FT Advisor Podcast. My name is Ima Jackson-Obot and I'm Deputy Futures Editor at FT Advisor. Today we're looking ahead to 2026 and asking ourselves whether multi-asset investing is still delivering what advisors and their clients need, particularly as more portfolios move from accumulation to drawdown. Joining me are Sunil Krishnan, Head of Multi-Asset at Aviva Investors and Stuart Clark, Portfolio Manager of Coulter's Wealth Select NPS. Hello to you both and thank you very much for joining me today. I think we can start the conversation, I suppose, by really setting the scene for 2026, you know, and thinking about what kind of investment environment advisors are headed into over the next couple of years.

1:00If I could come to you first, Sunil, in one sentence, what is the biggest challenge for multi-asset investors heading into 2026? And does it differ for accumulators versus those in drawdown? one sentence eh uh i think separating signal from noise is really uh key as it was in 2025 the headlines about unprecedented territory in geopolitics or markets they almost feel daily now um i guess if i can allow myself one more sentence on the drawdown versus i think if you're drawing down it just raises the stakes on your decisions because of sequencing risk you have less time to recover uh from a mistaken decision that's a fair point i mean we've been living in a there's just so much noise like you said isn't it and that's about quieting it down but there is a lot of noise out there i mean stuart what do you think same question to you yeah i'm going to completely agree obviously with what sunil has has said i think the The other issue which we'd be looking at for 2026 is the the the direction of travel for inflation, really.

2:10And what impact that's going to have on investors and the investment opportunity set effectively. And again, that that is going to have a meaningful impact on those clients who are in drawdown or potentially more meaningful impact on those clients who are in drawdown. And so that's probably one of the things with our team are concerning ourselves more with at this point in time. Thank you very much for that. So now back to you. So from a macro perspective, which assumption do you think advisors should be most cautious about building into their portfolios right now? I think it's interesting that Stuart picked up on inflation.

2:47I do worry that as a community in investment, we might assume that events like 2022 were just a one off because of very unusual events like the invasion of Ukraine. Whereas I think some of the underlying pressures on supply chains, competition for resources, et cetera, still with us. And I think you can already see that in parts of the market. And I think that does have quite important foundational assumptions for things that we'll probably talk about in terms of the relationship between equities and bonds, etc. Thanks for that, Sunil. I mean, if we can turn to asset location as well. I mean, I suppose that has a bearing now when you talk about, you know, once events that would have seemed would have seemed rare are no longer really rare.

3:36And then obviously now we hear the news, we see what's happening, you know, things like Venezuela. We're hearing the concerns about Greenland, you know, just geopolitics is having such a massive, massive impact. You know, these events that may have seemed rare are no longer rare. The volatility is with us for and has been for quite some time. if I can ask you Sunil so with that in mind sort of what does this do to the 60-40 portfolio model is it does it have an impact on it does that model is that model still fit for purpose what does that look like for us in 2026? I don't think there's anything in the geopolitical environment that changes I guess our core belief in for example the role of listed equities we see those as the primary way for advisors and clients to build long-term wealth at a reasonable price.

4:31And even in drawdown strategies in moderate size, we think that there's a role for them as part of drawdown strategies, given that we're going to be retired a long time. The question then becomes, how do we manage the risks around the listed equity markets without hurting expected returns too much? And that's historically where fixed income has had a part to play. We still think there's a big role for fixed income in that way. There are scenarios where it is the only asset that will deliver capital gains. And we can talk about recessions and deflation. So again, core listed fixed income still has a really important role in our accumulation and drawdown strategies.

5:05What is true is that this is not the world that prevailed in the 2010s, for example, where every short-term wobble in equities was buttressed by gains in the bond market. And bonds anyway had a huge tailwind from one-way traffic in central bank policy supporting bond valuations. So I think we do need to consider a slightly different approach to risk management in the future. But it's not to say that, particularly when you factor in price, that listed equities and listed bonds don't have a huge part to play in portfolios. And what are your thoughts on that, Stuart, in terms of the 60-40 portfolio traditional model?

5:42What does that look like for 2026? Yeah, I mean, we're offering, as I'm sure Aviva are as well, portfolios across multiple risk levels, risk targeted models for us, one of which you could compare to a traditional 60-40 portfolio. Actually, going back to 2020-2021, we started talking to clients around how we felt that 60-40 model, it's not really the equity side, as Neil's mentioned there, that has come under question for us. It was a diversifying asset. So, again, we're running a fund of funds structure for our solution. And that meant where instead of owning just traditional fixed income for diversifiers, we we moved to what we were describing then as more of a 60 2020 model, where the 40 bonds allocation could be split, maybe 20 % in traditional fixed income and 20 % in liquid alternative strategies, which could offer a great diversification to the portfolio.

6:46Again, it doesn't come if we're thinking more about those clients who are in drawdown, maybe there's more of an impact there on the income, the yield characteristics of that liquid alternative portfolio. So a drawdown client might have a slightly different portfolio construct to someone who's in the accumulation stage. But we felt that that offered greater abilities to protect capital and offer diversification over a traditional 60-40 portfolio. And to be honest, that's still the way we feel about portfolios today. And so as we're going into 2026, we've actually been looking to sort of increase slightly our allocation to liquid alternatives within the portfolio.

7:26Again, coming back to one of my early comments about having maybe a concern that the market is focused on inflation ebbing away over time and the risk of that potentially even picking up if the economy runs hot through the year and the Fed is focused on an easier policy alongside easier fiscal circumstances, then you could even see yields increasing towards the end of 26. and as a result having that diversification in liquid alts will benefit the overall capital preservation of a lower risk client portfolio and that's something which we think is probably the way forward for the foreseeable future.

8:07Stuart did you get a sense whether advisors are meaningfully changing asset allocations or are they sort of prioritising client familiarity and behavioral comfort? I think with the advisors, and I suppose the shift to managed portfolio service has been incredibly successful over recent years in gaining assets alongside traditional multi-asset strategies. And that focus of advisors to retain the advice relationship and understanding the willingness, ability to take risk of clients and allowing other teams like ourselves, like those to be their investors to focus on running the portfolios for them.

8:54They're really allowing us to focus on which asset classes, which sub-asset classes we see as the most attractive in the current environment. And they're really now more focused on trying to really understand the needs of their clients and service that. And then making sure they're selecting the best solution or the best range of solutions for those for those clients. So I think there has been a change in the dynamic between the client relationship and the investment management decision, which we've seen in the growth of assets and solutions like ours. But it's not really at the expense of the advisor understanding the client's needs.

9:32It's really just a separation of of expertise, I would say. And so do you have any thoughts on that? Anything to add to that? I'm not sure I do, actually, in that I think that's very much that that kind of strategic separation, I think, is really a driver of that key industry trend. And I think Stu has articulated it really clearly. So on talking about asset allocation mix, you know, bonds and cash, FedStay take on a very different role, have taken a very different role over the past few years. Can you expand a bit more? You were talking about the role of fixed income. And I feel like you were saying that, correct me if I'm wrong, that it's really re-established itself as a reliable diversifier.

10:24Could you expand a bit more on that and what that means for advisors and the role of fixed income in portfolios, especially in drawdown portfolios? I think the role of fixed income is valuable, but not as all encompassing as we used to think. I think that's the key point. So valuable in the sense that there are certain situations, recessions, deflation, where you are likely to see concerns over the health of, for example, the corporate world and particularly challenging the equity market. And it will be difficult to see other assets, whether they be exotic, things like commodities and so on, absolute strategies, they'll all face their own challenges.

11:03But in that environment, significant reductions in cash interest rates, they tend to be a very favorable environment for the fixed income markets, government bonds, obviously, but potentially also lower risk parts of the corporate bond world. So you expect that in that scenario, it will, I suppose, refresh the parts of the portfolio that other assets can't reach. So that's very valuable. But I do think it's important just to understand how has the world changed? The world has changed in a couple of ways compared to the 2010s. So we were used to seeing continued capital gains. It almost felt like one way traffic in fixed income that supported by easier and easier monetary policy.

11:42That was a great environment for people to say, look, I'm earning nothing on cash. The central bank itself is buying bonds. Why should I not follow suit and benefit from the capital gains? But also, anytime there was a short term concern about equities, it was generally about economic growth. That was generally why equities were having their short term wobble. And that was a reason why people would quickly flock to the fixed income markets for protection. And those two assumptions, I think, are much more questionable now. There will. There have been and will be times when Stuart and I have both talked about inflation.

12:15It might be an inflation concern or concern about interest rates rising faster that leads to the pullback in equities. And you wouldn't necessarily expect fixed income to perform so well in that environment, even if that's not something that we have seen sustained for a very long period of time. It can still provide a bit of a shock if there's been a real reliance on fixed income to actually make gains in that environment to support portfolio. On the plus side, I think we need to recognize that there are some greater protections built in to the fixed income markets now than there were back in 2022.

12:48So to give you an example, at the start of 2022, so before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the 10 year yield yield was below one percent. Whereas now we're looking at, let's call it four, four and a half percent. That's quite a change. And I think it does mean that from a pure valuation perspective, there's a little bit more protection built in. It doesn't mean that, again, that you are guaranteed to get capital gains, particularly if the concerns are driven by tougher policy from the Bank of England or tougher policy from other central banks, inflation concerns. But it does offer more of a margin of safety, more of a valuation cushion than we were used to before.

13:30Stuart, just on the role of cash in multi-asset portfolios, what do you see as? Is it a strategic buffer, a behavioral tool, a potential drag on long-term outcomes? yeah i mean we have over the years used cash as an asset this is an asset class in our strategic asset allocation model tactically we're willing to go overweight or underweight that asset class within the client portfolios and it's a way to manage the overall volatility of a client portfolio so a few years ago we had quite high cash allocations actually in our low risk portfolios. And it was slightly misunderstood, I think, by some of the advisors and some, and we spent a great deal of time trying to explain to them, you know, by having a higher allocation to cash, it was actually the model was spitting that out as it saw a more attractive risk adjusted return by effectively barbelling cash against an overweight equities position compared to having other assets in the portfolio mix.

14:38And then we're taking tactical decisions around that. Recently, we have used that cash to invest, as I mentioned, in some new liquid alternatives positions. And back in 2022 as well, having gone into 2021 and 2022 with higher cash allocations, it gave us an opportunity to pick up some assets at much better valuations than we would have been able to buy at the beginning of the year, including traditional fixed income on those higher starting yields, giving giving better carry for the clients at the time. So I think it would be a mistake for us to not use cash as a proper asset within the portfolios.

15:20But you are right. Ultimately, in the long run, cash is not really a driver of returns for clients in that portfolio. And then when you adjust for inflation, you have to be aware of the potential drag in your overall level of expected return. certainly net of fees for clients over time. And that is one of the factors that we have to put into the mix when we're considering that part of the portfolio. Great. Thank you. I mean, if we can just quickly drill down to talking about drawdown portfolios and perhaps sequencing risk. And I just want to have a really quick question for both of you. What would you say a well-constructed multi-asset drawdown portfolio needs to prioritise in 2026?

16:07I'll start with you, Stuart, and then I'll come to Sunil after. Just sort of briefly, what do you think needs to prioritise? Yeah, I mean, obviously, for a client who's in drawdown with a certain income requirement, and this is, again, where the importance of the advisor understanding the client's requirements and structuring their sort of the mix of assets within the solution, rather, the mix of solutions and the cash, level of cash, which they have available for shorter term requirements is super important because I think this year, and it goes back to how Sunil started really, is it's going to be a lot of noise again.

16:49You mentioned Venezuela, which was, the rhetoric there had obviously increased over recent months. I didn't expect this time last week that we'd be sitting here today talking about the U.S. having gone in and nabbed the president of Venezuela and the first lady of Venezuela. And they've been appearing in court in the U.S. just yesterday. So when we're thinking about the positioning of portfolios, we need to maintain that base level of yield for the clients. And again, that's where I say maybe for a drawdown client, you have slightly more of a focus on the traditional fixed income part of the portfolio, slightly less than the liquid alternatives because it does give you that carry element within the portfolio.

17:35I think what's interesting, actually, again, for a drawdown portfolio, you might also be looking at having a more diversified group of assets on the equity side, some which are generating some income there as well. And if this inflation dynamic comes through, which we're worried about, then actually more value orientated strategies on the equity side might also help. But at the same time, they're generating some some income for those clients as well. The key for us this year, not just for drawdown, but for the accumulation portfolios as well, is really about flexibility, flexibility of positioning, but flexibility of mindset as well to make sure that we're keeping up, trying to siphon out what is noise and what is a genuine change in the investment outlook and trying to capture those positions within the portfolio.

18:27And so it's going to be a year where we just need to be constantly, even more so than normal. And this is obviously part of our day job, but constantly aware of trying to filter out the difference between natural changes in dynamics. Do you agree with that? I definitely have sympathy with the need for flexibility. But I do think it's also important to keep the strategic plan in mind when it comes to management of sequencing risk in drawdown. You know, the way we think about it is, as Stuart's alluded to, the different components of let's call it a post-retirement strategy, because a lot of the most important work for drawdown portfolios is post-retirement.

19:20and you're thinking about, right, there is a long-term need for stability of income where annuities have a part to play. There is a near-term need for cash in the here and now to fund immediate plans. And then there's the component in the middle, which perhaps didn't matter very much when we didn't think we'd spend a long time retired. But it really matters now when people are thinking, well, I might be retired for 20 or 30 years. And the key question I think the industry struggled to deal with for a long time is how much of that pot in the middle can I draw down while controlling the risk of running out of money?

19:55Now, I think natural income, expected total returns, inflation, linkage all have a part to play. But the key remains to manage the capital. And it really just becomes a question of what can you how can you construct the portfolio to provide as much visibility as possible on what that sustainable drawdown rate might be? but still keep some control of that risk of more severe kind of permanent impairment, which we might talk about as tail risk. And I think if we we talk about the potential for markets to be more volatile from here, everything else being equal, that does mean that that introduces more sequencing risk.

20:31The whole point is that volatility, even if it evens itself out in the long run, that if you're drawing down consistently through those ups and downs, it can create problems or a worse end outcome. And so I think the end result has to be either you either have to be more tolerant of permanent impairment. So you kind of say, look, I'm happy with a slightly higher probability of running out of money earlier than I thought. Or you have to be looking at a more conservative drawdown policy or you have to be looking at changing the investment strategy in a way that mitigates that that sort of sequencing risk or the risk of permanent impairment.

21:05It's got to be one of those three. And you can't really outrun the maths on this. And I think the priority in general, but no less so for 2026, is just to manage. Right. How are we controlling drawdown on capital without paying too high a tax in terms of long term expected return? Thanks very much. And that's really in-depth explanation there. I mean, just briefly, would you say that the client anxiety has increased and that is sort of a role that advisors really have to play? a role that advisors have to play more now, more than in the past in terms of managing client anxiety? Or has it always been there?

21:46I think it's always client anxiety really increases when markets have been through a significant drawdown. And so if we think about last year, around Liberation Day, client anxiety picked up and advisors had to do a very good job of managing that for those clients to make sure they stay invested and were able to benefit from the recovery. When you get to the end of what was ultimately a good year on the back of a couple of other good years, client anxiety tends to be okay. The wealth effect has been good for clients generally if they look back through the entire year. I think it ties in with one of the other questions you had, though, which is, you know, advisors need to really be ready to handle that anxiety when it does flare up.

22:39And again, that might come if we have these periods of increased volatility, whether it's geopolitical risk, concerns around valuations, the increased coverage. There's a lot of press coverage at the end of last year about the AI bubble. Is it isn't it a bubble? and those questions then do come through in the advisor meetings and the advisors need to be given the information in advance. And that's where the communication from us as asset managers is absolutely key to be able to answer those questions or be able to get them the answers to those questions in a timely manner when they come to us looking for that detail.

23:14So I don't think anxiety levels are really up that high at the moment around the client base, Certainly not from the questions we're receiving through from advisors, but it's undoubtedly going to increase during those periods of volatility or drawdown as they come about. right thank you so much and can we talk about diversification next um what that sort of looks like i mean i think we've sort of touched on elements of it but shoot if i can ask you what does sort of when we talk about diversification in your in your opinion what what does that look like you know can fixed income and equities are these enough on their own or you know do we need those uh smaller proportion of our alter um of uh alternatives just to sort of balance out the portfolio?

24:03I mean, what are your thoughts? Yeah, I think we've said before that for us, it is ensuring that in the diversifying part of the portfolio, you are not solely reliant on traditional fixed incomes. And they'll express it very well with the highest starting yields, the ability for central banks to react to changes in macro environments, that there is a much more attractive starting point for traditional fixed income compared to where we were, you know, five, six years ago. But for an overall portfolio diversification, it does require now other asset classes. But us, that's not really in the private markets at the moment.

24:48So we're not again with funder funds, daily liquid solution. And so private markets comes with its own structural challenges, but also private equity, private credit. It's certainly a very hot asset class last year, and we had some concerns around that. As a result, it's not an area which we're really actively doing much work in at the moment. The other area for diversification, though, is really thinking about within those asset classes. So within the equity market, we still have exposure to the U.S. equity market. We still have exposure to U.S. growth and tech within that. But it's really thinking about where are the opportunities today?

25:26And can you get diversification within equities as well? So that can be international emerging market equities. It can be looking at value solutions in the US or even US mid cap exposure, albeit that has I mean, it looks very attractive from a relative valuation perspective, but is intrinsically tied to that sort of economic activity and that K-shaped economy that people are talking about. So so so much in the US that the question is, can those companies really drag themselves out of the valuation position which they've been in at the moment? So that's the other area of diversification for us at the moment.

26:08Thanks for that. And Sunil, what about yourself? Do you have any viewpoint on that? Yeah, I think the hurdle for diversification or diversifying assets for us is quite high because you are trying to blend interaction with the rest of the portfolio. So is it genuinely diversifying cost and liquidity? So it's not to say there's no role for private markets. So, for example, in some of our more premium strategies, we do have allocations to private credit, for example. So there can be a role, but it all just needs to be quite tightly controlled because you don't want it to dominate the liquidity profile of the entire portfolio.

26:46These are core multi-asset strategies which are intended to be at the heart of, you know, clients' long-term savings and investment plans. So for us, it's quite a high hurdle, but there are certain things that pass the test. So I think Stuart mentioned liquid alternatives and absolute return funds, and that's something where we do find there are one or two opportunities that work quite well for us over the past few years. And we think we'll continue to do that. We can be a little bit selective about private markets. And essentially what we're trying to do is say, how do we just control that risk of the overall direction of the equity market, the overall sensitivity to interest rates?

27:26But again, without paying too much of a tax in terms of the overall expected returns of the portfolio. I think that is important. Sometimes you can get a little bit more exotic. So, for example, some of our strategies to invest in gold. And obviously, that was a pretty helpful place to be for portfolios in 2025. I think we'll see quite the same pace of gains in 2026. But I think there are rewards to thinking about how aspects of the market regime may change and which diversifiers may be well placed for that. That worked well in 2025. And I think that will still be the case this year as well. Thanks, Sunil and Stuart, for your thoughts there about diversification.

28:06It's really, really interesting. um if we can we're almost coming to the end end or end of uh of the podcast but i'm going to just touch on on um regulation um stewart if i could talk to you about consumer consumer duty we talked about client anxiety um client behavior i just wonder if we could just touch on regulation as well really in terms of when advisors are communicating that volatility um you know trying to get the clients to understand a bit more about short-term underperformance how How can they do that while still evidencing the good outcomes under consumer duty, in your opinion? I think, yeah, it's really important.

28:47And to a degree that separation consumer duty has led to an increased use of outsourced solutions and the focus there on advisors identifying the correct solutions for them to use with their clients and really then focusing on the ongoing assessment of the suitability of that solution for their clients and freeing up their time then to focus on understanding changes in the client's circumstances, whether it's their short-term requirements, their mid-term plans, whatever it may be, and really allowing them to assess better whether the current solution they're invested in is still the appropriate solution, whether it's they're approaching retirement and moving into the drawdown phase from an accumulation phase or or they've inherited some money, whatever it might be.

29:41And the obviously advisors were doing this before. But with the advent of consumer duty, it has increased the focus to some degree on maintaining the evidence and sort of going through that on on an ongoing basis and allowed. Again, I think the real focus has been that separation. So some advisors have really doubled down on continuing to offer their own investment solutions and they've required to undertake additional training, additional exams to be able to offer those solutions for clients. And some of them are doing that brilliantly. And there are others who have looked at their core skill set and said, we're really good at the tax planning and the relationship management side.

30:26the advice part is our core skill. And we're going to outsource the investment part to specialists. And I completely understand that because when it comes to me thinking about the best structure for my assets, and which is the right wrap product on the platform, I haven't got a clue where to start. That's where I look to a financial advisor to give me that advice. And so I think that's the real boost from consumer duty for advisors and for clients at the end of the day. and i guess it's fair to say that you know while consuming while sort of you know um doing things better um and against the backdrop of consumer duty we wouldn't want the unintended consequences of advisors becoming too too cautious because again that can have that could have um unforeseeable harm right would you say yes and i don't again i don't think that has i i don't think when we look at the profile of investments across our range, and obviously I can't talk about the wider industry, but post-consumer duty, the distribution of investments across our solution hasn't seen a significant change to what we were seeing post-RDR, but pre-consumer duty, so to speak.

31:47And so I wouldn't say that from the data that we can see, that we've seen a change in the advisor's approach to assessing risk or managing that risk for clients. They've continued to follow the same approach and we've seen the same distribution. There's always some years it's a bit more risk, some years it's a bit less risk, but we haven't seen a significant change in attitude or the way that advisors are dealing with that part of their process. there are more and more providers out there and I think that does add to some complexity and and advisors having to work quite hard now as well to understand the differences between different providers of risk assessments different solutions and then make sure that however they put it together whereas the matrix or or their proposition is put together that they're comparing appropriately across different solutions at the same time.

32:46And that's a very important part of what the advisor is doing on the investment proposition side now on a day-to-day basis. Just coming on this for a second, I think there's caution and there's caution. I agree with Stuart that I would not expect to see advisors migrating from, let's say, funds with higher equity content to lower equity content because of consumer duty. But I think one of the concerns is that in a world of many, many providers, as Stuart mentioned, there is a risk of getting less and less choice because essentially the kind of caution that manifests itself is there is a conventional way to do things.

33:20There is a conventional way to translate a certain profile of client risk appetite into a portfolio. And the incentives to innovate, the incentives to take a differentiated approach may get less because essentially it will be much easier to justify from a consumer duty perspective why you're approaching your client's problem in exactly the same way as every other advisor than necessarily to take the risk of taking a slightly different approach. And I think that's just something we need to be aware of as an industry. There are certain circumstances that will lead to that have led to great track records over, let's say, the last decade.

33:57So broadly speaking, the more you've had in equities, the more you've had in US equities, the better. But I suspect Stuart also has this in his industry experience. You know, an early part of my career was in a three-year equity bear market from 2000 to 2003. And I do wonder whether advisors having regard to consumer duty will allow them to factor in those types of risks into their approach as opposed to the strategies that have done best over the last 10 or 15 years. Obviously, we need to think about that in terms of the strategies we designed, but I think advisors will also need to think about does consumer duty allow them the space to mitigate that slightly out of the box risk or slightly out of the normal range of experience risk for their clients.

34:43It's a very fair point there, very fair point. Thank you so much to both of you for joining me today. I have just one last question, really, and that's just to ask each of you sort of, I mean, in a way, it's kind of like a crystal ball thing, but in your perfect world, what would success look like for a multi-asset portfolio over the next three years? I'll ask you first Sunil then I'll ask and then Stuart afterwards so I think a really important um driver of uh total returns let's say you know I mentioned earlier on that listed equities I think are really important driver of long-term wealth creation um and let's just take an example like you mentioned AI and the question marks about um you know is there is there a bubble there In fact, Stuart mentioned it earlier on.

35:29So let's take that as an example. Today, we don't think that the valuations, the expectations of markets are overplaying the risks in terms of, or sorry, overplaying the opportunities in terms of where could demand for AI enabled services, the underlying hardware go over the course of the next, let's say, 12 to 18 months. and therefore I would say I think it's important that portfolios are able to benefit from continued expansion of this theme however three years in that context is a long time and I think it's going to be very important for us to be humble and not be too driven by hindsight when we come back in three years time to say was it a thing worth backing or not the answer over the course of the next three years might be both and therefore I think it's important that we have a degree of humility about will the next three years simply be a continued pattern of earnings per share gains, strong total returns in these types of investments in the US stock market, in the NASDAQ, in technology companies?

36:30Or will there come a point when the valuations have outstripped the likely outcomes and do we need to adapt? So I hope what we'll do in three years time is look back and say, how did we try and build resilience to both of these outcomes into portfolios way back in 2026? And did we do a good job of building in that resilience to the fact that the outcomes could go in more than one direction? And I think if we can look ourselves in the mirror and say, yes, we did that. We provided some participation if things continue to go well, but we were also alive to the risks. And that resulted in arriving in the middle of the range for client portfolios, the middle of the range of potential outcomes.

37:11I'll be pretty pleased with that if that's where we can land up. Yeah, thanks for that. And you, Stuart? Yeah, I mean, that's a great answer, let's be honest. I think the other aspect, and coming back to your previous question, actually, is really around the communication in that environment to clients and making sure that they... So we as professional investors, I always find this quite difficult. Part of our job through tactical asset allocation is to try and time markets. But at the same time, we're saying to advisors and to their clients, you should stay invested because trying to time the markets is an incredibly tough thing to do.

37:54What we can do is provide information and answers to advisors through those periods of volatility and drawdown, which I think there's inevitably going to be at some point over the next three years, whether it's in three months or 18 months or towards the end. But again, going back to Sunil, and it's interesting, I started as well in 2001. And so we've been through these periods of protracted drawdowns, spikes in volatility, sharp drawdowns, and long periods of very solid returns. But going into this year, I think we need to be talking to advisors about that range of outcomes and why, to Sunil's point, not necessarily being the top of the pops, is actually the best place to be in an environment where there is quite a wide range of potential outcomes driven by some factors, which people are, you know, it should be easy for us to say we've had four years of President Trump.

38:59We're through a year of the second term of President Trump. But there are also other geopolitical pressures and changes in the way the world is operating, which might mean some of those models and the experiences that we've had over the last couple of years are harder to replicate. So let's make sure advisors are aware and they're passing on the message to clients that, yes, it could be that there are good returns to be made in the short term. But through a through a full investment horizon, there are going to be pockets of volatility. And we'll be doing our best to manage that risk and take exploit opportunities when they're presented.

39:36But ensure that those clients are aware that markets don't just go from the bottom left to the top right of a chart in a year on year out basis. I like the, you know, top of the pops analogy there. That was really, really encapsulates what you've sort of both said about, you know, what you're looking, what your thoughts are ahead for the next sort of year to three years or so. Thank you so much, Stuart. And thank you so much, Sunil, for joining me today on this conversation, looking ahead, multi-asset investing for the next sort of 12 months or so. It's been really, really interesting. And thank you for listening.

40:17For more on investments, please visit ftadvisor.com. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.