The Bethlehem Project: Democrats battle over their party’s future

0:00Thinking long term about your investment career? Hear stories, advice, and lessons from seasoned leaders at Capital Group on the Capital Ideas podcast. Subscribe and start listening today. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Hey folks, Mark here. We're launching a special series on the briefing called The Bethlehem Project. It looks at big U.S. economic and political issues through the lens of one city, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. We published a few episodes on the Swamp Notes podcast, and this is the first episode we're publishing here. Now, there are a few reasons why Bethlehem is a great place to understand national trends and debates.

0:39It's a politically divided area in one of the most critical swing states in the country. It's also a former steel town that has successfully pivoted to a post-industrial economy. And it has a vibrant immigrant community. Bethlehem encapsulates a lot of different stories that American politicians are telling about the U.S. and who it's for. Sonia Hudson, whose voice you might recognize from the briefing, is hosting the Bethlehem Project. Sonia recently went on a road trip there to learn more about a congressional primary election. It tells us a lot about a debate the Democratic Party is having nationally.

1:12It's a great episode. You're going to want to listen. And with that, I will turn it over to Sonia.

1:22Sonja Hutson: There is a buzz in the air in this museum ballroom in Easton, Pennsylvania. It's about a 20-minute drive from Bethlehem. There are several round tables with blue tablecloths, and the room is dotted with blue balloons. A couple dozen local Democratic Party insiders are mingling and talking about an upcoming primary election. One of them is Shadwick Yoder. He's the president of the Lehigh Valley Young Democrats. And so this is really our chance to really get to see our options, really make a careful choice. On Tuesday, Democrats will pick their candidate for a congressional district that's critical for the party to take back control of the House of Representatives.

2:05Sonja Hutson: Shad is standing in front of a folding table with four plastic bins on it. They each have a photo of a candidate above them. It's kind of an informal straw poll. Shad tosses a ping pong ball into Bob Brooks's bin. Brooks is a former firefighter and union leader. And Shad says he likes him because he's a progressive focused on economic issues, but can still appeal to a wide range of voters. I mean, at the end of the day, we are a battleground district. And he's someone that I think you can get independent and some, you know, know, maybe disassociated Republican voters. He has that union background.

2:47He's someone who has not served in public office, which, you know, that can be a benefit to you, especially in this climate. A lot of people scoff their nose to career politicians.

2:59Sonja Hutson: Chad says Brooks's blue-collar background is especially important in a place that used to be a hub of American manufacturing. Having someone that is more representative of the population of the district, especially those who still live around here, who maybe have parents or grandparents who worked for Bethlehem Steel or worked in some type of blue collar project that matters to them to have someone that looks like them in Congress. Brooks is one of two frontrunners in the race. The other is Ryan Crosswell. He's a former Republican and used to be a federal prosecutor investigating government corruption.

3:38Sonja Hutson: He's also a little bit more centrist than Brooks policy-wise. This primary is a local example of the debate that Democrats have been having nationally about how to win over swing voters in places like this. I think it's going to be an ongoing conversation. There are people that want to stick to the more old-fashioned moderate Democrats. But at the same time, I just graduated college last year. I see voters who are very left and they'll vote third party just because of the failures of the Democrats. And so if we're losing the people on the fringes while at the same time trying to get people on the right who aren't going to vote for us anyway, we're just shooting ourselves in the foot.

4:25Sonja Hutson: Basically, what kind of candidates are electable, meaning who can appeal to the vast range of Democratic voters and win over some that the party has lost recently. I'm Sonia Hudson, and this is The Bethlehem Project, the series where we look at big U.S. economic and political issues through the lens of one city.

4:52In two miles, take the Pennsylvania 378 south exit toward Bethlehem. Bethlehem. Bethlehem. Bethlehem. Bethlehem. I'm from Bethlehem. Growing up, I thought Bethlehem was just like your average small town. Recently, though, I've realized we're really in the center of a lot of things.

5:21Sonja Hutson: I see the Bob Brooks for Congress sign under the United Steelworkers of America. That's your working class roots, Bethlehem right there. I met up with Brooks the next day at an industrial-looking brick building in Bethlehem. It houses the Steelworkers Union and the Firefighter Union office. So this is the fire office for the city of Bethlehem Firefighters, Local 735. We're in a small conference room with a large oval table. and plenty of memorabilia, including one of their original jackets hanging on the wall behind me. So it's a blue Class A uniform with a five-point hat. There's our baseball trophies down there because we kick the crap out of the cops every time we play on September 11th.

6:03So we get to keep it for a little while with the bragging rights.

6:06Sonja Hutson: Now, the electability question that I mentioned earlier is still one that voters are wrestling with across the country. But Pennsylvania's Democratic Party establishment liked what they saw in Brooks. Retired firefighter? Check. Union leader? Check. And so when Pennsylvania Congressman Chris Deluzio talked to Brooks. This was not on my bingo card at all. I got tapped on the shoulder by Chris Deluzio to take a look at the race and they wanted a different kind of candidate. They were tired of running the same old, same old. And I think Democratic Party started to see that we need some working class people to get involved here.

6:44Sonja Hutson: Brooks says the popular Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, asked him to run too. He's also got endorsements from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who's a self-described democratic socialist, plus a smattering of other high-profile politicians from Pennsylvania and across the country. We're seeing this drive to find more blue-collar candidates happening around the U.S. The most well known is Graham Plattner in Maine. He is an oyster farmer with progressive stances who's probably going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate. We want to send people from the working class that can make rules and fix a system for the working class, for people that are struggling every day.

7:27Sonja Hutson: Brooks says he wants to bring back the blue-collar voters that the Democrats started losing en masse when U.S. President Donald Trump was first elected. In 2008, about 52 percent of non-college-educated voters favored the party, according to Pew Research. By 2016, that number fell to 46 percent, and it has continued to drop. It became known as the party of elites, right? Like, that's a problem. That's why I've watched my members in the firehouse drift to either independents or even to Republicans, because they don't... When Donald Trump ran, he talked about them. He didn't do anything for them, but he talked about them and let them know No tax on overtimes and no tax on tips.

8:10All garbage. Nothing works. Nothing actually makes the lives better of my members.

8:15Sonja Hutson: Brooks says Trump has broken his campaign promises. The president's approval rating has fallen to about 39 percent, according to a recent FT poll. That was dragged down by the war in Iran and inflation. And they're finding out now. You know, they voted for the release of the Epstein files. They voted for no more wars. How's that working out? So I think that's why they're looking for change. I think that's what the Democratic Party is trying to show the everyday working class person. Like, we do care. We never left you with policy, but we understand we weren't showing it. Now, in terms of policy, Brooks is focused on one of Trump's biggest political liabilities.

8:58Magic words, affordability, right? I mean, but then when we start talking about health care, so in my personal life, I have had to decide to pay the bills, the medical bills or pay the mortgage. Nobody should have to do that.

9:12Sonja Hutson: Brooks supports Medicare for all shorthand for a universal government provided national health insurance program. The wealth inequality is a big problem. And that comes with, you know, taxing the ultra rich that are not paying any taxes right now. So if we could do that, we could help fund a lot of these things. But are those policies too far left to win over moderate swing voters? I don't necessarily agree with that because I don't think those options are really that far left. You know, I think they're what most people want. So I think coming to center is I think we get lost in are you a progressive?

9:51Are you with this? Are you with that? Like I'm working class and I think we may not agree on everything, but we should be able to talk about everything. and come to an agreement.

10:02Sonja Hutson: Not everyone's on board, however, for Brooks' plan to win over swing voters. More on that after the break.

10:22Good morning.

10:24Sonja Hutson: Bob Brooks' main rival, Ryan Crosswell, is sitting at a small table in his campaign office. It's a large open room with a smattering of tables and maroon chairs, the kind that stack and you might expect to see at your kid's piano recital. There's a music school on the floor above us. Crosswell's in the middle of preparing for the final primary debate this evening. I find the debates to be pretty exciting. I mean, I was a college athlete, so I've always kind of got that adrenaline rush thing. So I just kind of dig it. I'm going to miss them. Crosswell's backstory is a bit different than Brooks.

11:03Sonja Hutson: He's a former member of the Marine Corps and most recently worked as a federal prosecutor investigating government corruption. He was also a registered Republican until last year. Crosswell says he started to think about running for office after President Trump got elected again in 2024. At that time, he was working at the Department of Justice. It became very apparent after the start of the second administration, Trump 2.0, that he was going to follow through in a lot of his campaign promises, going after his enemies, you know, kind of co-opting the government for his own use, and that this is something that has to be solved with the ballot box.

11:47Sonja Hutson: So he changed his registration to Democrat and decided to run for Congress. But I've been voting Democrat for 10 years. I sometimes joke that when Trump came down the escalator, I went up it. Crosswell's referring to when Trump came down a golden Trump hotel escalator in 2015 to announce he was running for president. Crosswell's campaign has focused a lot on what he sees as undemocratic moves by the president. That frustration has been felt across the country. So-called no-king's protests have drawn millions of people. You know, I understand that the theme of the 2024 election was the price of eggs.

12:27And that's still the case. Affordability has only gotten worse since he's taken office. But I think this is a no-Kings moment where what upsets people the most is these abuses of power. Is this idea that a president is just going to say, I'm not even going to consult Congress. I'll launch wars without Congress. I won't disclose the Epstein files in full. I won't disperse money to Pennsylvanians that Congress has already appropriated. I'll do what I want. I'll profit from the office and I'll use taxpayer resources to do it. Corruption and abuse of power is a kitchen table issue and because they can't be separated.

13:04Because when someone is most concerned with enriching and empowering himself, he's not addressing the affordability issues.

13:11Sonja Hutson: Here's Crosswell's pitch. His experience investigating public corruption makes him the right person to stand up to Trump in Congress. And that's important because we're going to need to rebuild some of the guardrails that have been torn down and rebuild new ones. I asked Crosswell what he makes of Bob Brooks's pitch about putting more working class people in Congress. I've always found that curious. I joined the Marine Corps. That was my first job. It's news to me that vets aren't considered a working class. Like I mentioned earlier, in terms of policy, Crosswell falls a little more towards the center than Brooks.

13:47Sonja Hutson: He supports a public option for health care instead of universal coverage. Basically, it's a government funded health insurance program that competes with private insurance companies rather than providing universal coverage. And I ask him, what's the best way to win over swing voters? Is it, you know, a more populist economic message that's maybe a little bit more progressive and further to the left? Or do you kind of swing your policy a little bit more to the center? I think it comes down to the issue. You know, I think that Americans are ready for a real progressive swing towards something like campaign finance.

14:30I think a woman's right to choose. we should be pushing as hard as we can to codify nationally the protections of Roe versus Wade. On some sort of economic policies, I am someone that supports the public option. I think the more progressive view is Medicare for all. What I would say is we don't have a single state with single pair. So we just need to be realistic. And I think there is a tendency in primaries, Democratic primaries, to go as far, you know, progressive as you can to win votes. But what's annoying to me is those folks are going to come back to the Senate when it gets to the general election because they're going to know that's not going to win.

15:11Sonja Hutson: I also really want to know how Croswell approaches these kind of voters when he's out on the campaign trail. I don't focus on party affiliation. I just focus on the issues and why I think my positions and quite frankly, the Democratic Party's positions are better for voters. So when I am speaking to independents and Republicans, one thing I do is I try to get them to the objective, but consider it from their perspective. So big, beautiful bill. Democrats care very deeply about the Medicaid cuts, the cuts to SNAP benefits, as they should. If I'm talking to a Republican, I'll probably focus more on the debt.

15:52Hey, we're adding$5 trillion debt to an exploding debt that puts the world's full faith and credit in the U.S. dollar at risk more and more. It risks catastrophic inflation. So just trying to get there on a road that I think is more palatable for someone that may be of a more conservative mindset.

16:26Sonja Hutson: We're back in Easton at the Democratic primary mixer, and Crosswell is talking to a steady stream of attendees, including Courtney Gilmore, who's from a Republican part of the district called the Slate Belt. I listen in as Courtney and Crosswell speak to another Democrat named Lorraine Maneo. Ryan's work ethic is what drew me in. his ability to raise money. He's working in areas. I mean, he's come up to the slate belt a few times now. Those are important things, especially to voters up where I live, right? You know, the slate belt gets ignored. The funny thing is, what she doesn't tell you, is initially she wasn't a big fan of mine.

17:05Let me tell you the story. I'll tell you the story.

17:08Sonja Hutson: Courtney says she's been really concerned about Trump's ethics in office. We are in a very dark time where we need someone to get in there, know the laws, know the way to fight back. And Ryan's definitely that candidate. And I think he's figured out the method to get across the aisle. I mean, he turned Republicans, Democrat at three of my events. So I'm loving it. What do you think about him appeals to moderate swing voters? I think him knowing the law, having a career with the DOJ, is enticing to people who may be in the middle because we need to just rein in what's happening right now in our country.

18:00Sonja Hutson: I think there's been kind of a broader debate within the Democratic Party here and across the country about how do we appeal to those moderate voters. What do you think is the best strategy to win over moderate voters? I think we need to pay attention to the working class. I think we need to fight back against taxes and stuff for the billionaires and corporates. And I hear a lot of what we're going to win against the Republicans, but I'm more of a let's get Republicans to join in with us. And I think with a candidate like Ryan, who's learned how to talk both aisles, would be that perfect candidate.

18:54Sonja Hutson: Democrats are feeling optimistic about their chances this fall. Typically, the party that does not control the White House does well in midterm elections. But here's a word of caution from Chris Borick. He's a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in nearby Allentown. Democrats are starting from a position where the Republicans have given them all kinds of openings with the president's approval rating and his diminished standing on the areas that were once his strengths. But they still have a bad brand. And that's why strategy and candidate selection is still really, really important.

19:31Sonja Hutson: To Chris, the Pennsylvania Democratic establishment has made their choice in this race. And it's Bob Brooks. They think it's part of the rebranding or reestablishing of the Democratic Party amongst those constituencies where they've absolutely lost voters, right? Chris points to a recent campaign ad as an example of how they're doing that. 20-year firefighter, union leader, bartender, snowplow driver Bob Brooks is running for Congress. Endorsed by Shapiro. He's on Harley Davidson's. He's wearing his firefighter uniform and he's pointing at the camera. I'm Bob Brooks and I approve this message because DC's a dumpster fire.

20:14We're going to put it out. For a party that is accused of not looking tough enough or not looking working class enough, His imagery speaks to that. For voters that aren't deep into policy, these are your shortcuts. And for a population with limited attention span and background knowledge, those shortcuts are key.

20:41Sonja Hutson: But the big question is... Do you think it'll work? In this cycle, again, when you have incredible tailwinds behind you, you got a lot more room for error than you would in another cycle. Or experimentation. Or experimentation, right? And so this is probably not the worst time to try some things and see if it hits. Candidates matter. I keep saying that. But cycles are really powerful. And if you get a good cycle behind you, you can ride it and be quite imperfect.

21:22Sonja Hutson: So while things are looking good for Bob Brooks on Tuesday, Chris put a big asterisk by all of this. There's four candidates. Turnout for primaries tends to be low. So who knows what could happen when you potentially only need 35 to 40 percent of the vote to win?

21:48Sonja Hutson: Before I came to the FT, I was a political reporter. And this trip reminded me of something I learned really early on in that job. As much as reporters and academics and political insiders love to get into the nitty-gritty of policy positions and legislation, elections are really about how voters feel. Do they feel seen? Do candidates make them feel hopeful? I keep thinking about something another Democrat at that mixer told me. His name is Ethan Lipka. I think they want people who are actually going to do stuff and not just talk about it. You know, Obama ran on hope and change. I don't really think we've ever really left that political moment of people asking for change.

22:31Sonja Hutson: Given that approval ratings for both parties are in the dumps right now, I agree with Ethan. People are hungry for change. Now, the question for Democrats when they head to the polls on Tuesday is, who's going to inspire people that they're the one to make that change? Is it the blue-collar progressive Bob Brooks focused on affordability or the more centrist Ryan Croswell focused on keeping Trump in check? The Democratic establishment has anointed Brooks, but the voters will have the final say on what electability means.

23:11Sonja Hutson: This was The Bethlehem Project, the series where we explore the biggest U.S. economic and political issues through the lens of one city. Our show was edited by Mark Filippino, and it was mixed by Sam Giavinko. Topher Forges is our executive producer, and Lauren Fedor contributed reporting to this episode. I'm Sonia Hudson. Thanks for going to Bethlehem with me.

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