The investors eyeing Venezuela’s oil

0:02Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Tuesday, January 6th. This is your FT News briefing. Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appeared in a U.S. court yesterday. And smaller private investors are jockeying for a position in Venezuela's oil market. Plus, we'll take a look at how Southeast Asia has been able to weather President Donald Trump's tariff storm. I'm Mark Filippino, and here's the news you need to start your day.

0:35— Protesters gathered outside a courthouse in Manhattan yesterday. — They demanded that Nicolas Maduro and his wife be freed. The two were captured in a U.S. military operation in Caracas over the weekend, and they were charged with narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and firearms offenses. Maduro denied the charges, saying in court, quote, I'm innocent, I'm not guilty, I'm a decent man, the president of my country. Investors were in somewhat good spirits despite the weekend's geopolitical turmoil. The S &P 500 ticked up a little bit more than half of a percent yesterday, and Venezuelan debt surged by almost 30%.

1:16The country's bonds have been a default since 2017, but after Maduro's capture, the price of these bonds jumped. that caused a major windfall for hedge funds who bought them for cents on the dollar.

1:34The U.S. military operation in Venezuela has opened the door to a bunch of new investment into its oil industry. Smaller private equity investors have been the most enthusiastic. U.S. oil majors, on the other hand, they've been pretty cautious. The FT's Jamie Smith is here to talk about who's likely to benefit most from expanded access to Venezuelan oil. Hey, Jamie. Hi, Mark. So tell us about these private investors who are chomping at the bit to get into Venezuelan oil. Yes, it didn't take very long at all. One of the most prominent is a former Chevron executive, Ali Mosheer, who had previously worked in Venezuela, and his fund has actually been seeking to raise$2 billion to try and invest in different assets there.

2:20He told me that he thinks he can possibly buy and acquire between 20 ,000 to 50 ,000 barrels of oil per day production from the state oil company. Harold Hamm, the US shale tycoon, a close associate of Donald Trump, He told me that he is considering looking at Venezuela. He sees it as a potential opportunity. So there are two potentials. And there are lots of other players that maybe have had previous experience in Venezuela or are just eyeing up this opportunity. So I'd expect to see a lot more people come out of the woodwork over the following days and weeks. Jamie, why are these folks so keen to invest in Venezuela?

3:05Well, yes, smaller private equity style investors can generally move faster to take advantage of opportunities, particularly if they've already raised money. They're not waiting in corporate boards to make decisions about entering politically controversial countries. There's also some of these potential investors have a vast store of knowledge about Venezuela itself. For example, Ali Moshir, the former Chevron executive, he's able to pinpoint particular assets which he thinks he can invest in or he can buy and he can develop. And then there's probably some of these investors which are close to, you know, President Trump.

3:47And they would maybe see this as a way to take advantage of an opportunity in this country, but also to, in a sense, follow Trump's leadership on this matter. Just out of curiosity, Jamie, why aren't we seeing that type of enthusiasm from oil majors? Venezuela, you know, it is a much sought after price. It has the largest oil reserves in the world. But there are major drawbacks, which mean that the oil majors, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, who have both operated in the past in Venezuela, have been very coy about any investment intentions. These two companies have had their assets expropriated back in 2007.

4:32So they're going to think long and hard about coming back into a country where they previously lost money. Another key issue at the minute is that oil prices are very low. They have gone below$60 per barrel. And at that rate, it's difficult to make money. Now, the exception to that is probably Chevron. They have existing operations in Venezuela. So most analysts would suggest that they could actually increase their production quite rapidly. But so far, they've been very quiet and hesitant to speak out about that. What about Venezuela itself? Does Caracas have anything to gain here? The oil industry for Venezuela is the largest export earner for the country.

5:15So it's vital to help rebuild Venezuela's economy. Now, it requires a lot of investment and the U.S. and its corporates could provide that. But there's also this question about, you know, whether they're going to extract a lot of the wealth and the terms at which they're able to operate in Venezuela are really crucial. It's going to be hard to get buy-in from the public on the ground if it's seen that U.S. companies are going and stealing all the oil and keeping the profits for themselves. That's CFT's U.S. Energy Editor, Jamie Smith. Thanks so much, Jamie. Thanks, Mark.

5:58Analysts are expecting China's auto exports to jump 25 % this year, and if they do, that would hit a record of more than 7 million. Carmakers are trying to offset collapsing domestic sales of gas-powered cars and slowing electric vehicle growth. They're doing it by setting up factories and sales networks around the world. It's not just Chinese car companies, mind you. Volkswagen and Tesla are also pivoting toward lucrative export markets. Chinese data shows that the top markets include Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Europe. One notable exception is the U.S. There, of course, these Chinese companies are limited by levies and security controls.

6:45The U.S. slammed the world with tariffs last year, but one place in particular was able to offset the impact of the blitz, Southeast Asia. The region is still thriving in large part due to cheap manufacturing costs and America's demand for technology. Peter Foster is the FT's World Trade Editor. He's been digging into this and joins me now. Hi, Peter. Hi. Okay, so just do me a favor. Paint us a picture here. How did the region manage to actually grow exports during at least some of the last year despite this trade war? So as you said, in the Liberation Day tariffs, we saw countries like Cambodia and Vietnam, big manufacturing powers in Southeast Asia, getting slapped with tariffs of up to 49%.

7:30In the end, the tariff went down to 20 % pretty much across the board, and that had three effects. The first one was that China, which had a higher tariff, a 35 % or so tariff, rerouted some goods via countries like Vietnam and Cambodia. So that's effect one. Effect two, the AI boom meant that actually, despite the tariffs, an awful lot of electronic goods went from Southeast Asia into America because there was so much extra demand created by the AI boom. So in the end, the trade volumes keep going up. So the initial expectation when Trump's tariffs went into effect was that the trade would basically be rerouted to lower-cost countries, maybe other regions of the world.

8:14But just to be clear, that hasn't actually happened. No, because the economic gravity of trade is so strong that a 20 % tariff, which is what we ended up with, on a$100 sneaker that lands at LA Long Beach at$25 only puts$5 on that sneaker. And if you can afford a$100 sneaker, you can afford a$105 sneaker. And so what we saw is the producers of the garments and the sneakers and the electronic goods having to suck up a little bit of that extra tariff cost and a little bit of that extra tariff cost being passed on to the American consumer. But in the round, that meant that trade, despite being a bit more expensive, pretty much carried on as it had before Trump came back to the White House.

8:59So while some of these countries have held up well overall, individual companies are still feeling a bit of the squeeze. Well, that's right, because the tariff, remember, is paid by the U.S. importer. So if I import sneakers or electronic goods, etc., from Cambodia or Vietnam or Thailand, now I don't want to have to pay all of that. So I say to my producer, look, you've got to cut your cost. You've got to give it to me more cheaply. There might be, for example, a one-year forward contract where the prices are fixed. and the producer in Vietnam or Cambodia, they still want to make the goods even if they don't make as much profit as they previously did.

9:35But that means that when we went to interview companies in Cambodia, as we did, we found them grumbling about the fact that their profit margins, of course, have been squeezed by these Trump tariffs. But they also say that over time, they will have to pass those costs onto the U.S. importer as they enter into new contracts down the line. All right, Peter. So as we get further into 2026, How will some of these companies and countries continue to navigate some of that ongoing uncertainty? Well, they will be looking to see how the U.S. side manages these trade goods. The U.S. has said that it wants to put a 40 % tariff on any goods that its spots are being rerouted from China through Vietnam, say, or Cambodia into the U.S.

10:18in order to avoid that much higher tariff between the U.S. and China. Now, one of the things we don't know is the extent to which the U.S. administration is going to kind of enforce these rules. How tough is the policing going to be? That will be one of the big determinants, I think, this time next year, whether or not they have reduced the trade flows from Southeast Asia or whether, despite the rising costs, economic gravity takes over once again. Peter Foster is the FT's World Trade Editor. Thanks so much for your time, Peter. My pleasure. You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes.

10:54This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Check back tomorrow for the latest business news.