Iran war: Oil prices soar

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1:06This is not the future we were promised. Like, how about that for a tagline for the show? From the BBC, this is The Interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world. This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your everyday life. And all the bizarre ways people are using the internet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:39This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Charlotte Gallagher and at 1600 Hours GMT on Monday the 9th of March, These are our main stories. Oil prices surge as the US-Israel war with Iran continues. President Trump says it's a very small price to pay for what he calls world peace. But how long will this continue? The new supreme leader of Iran is the son of the last one, leading some Iranians to despair about the future. This means that nothing is going to change. It's the same path, perhaps even worse. Anyhow, I don't think the situation can continue. I don't think that it will last.

2:24Also in this podcast, what will happen to the Iranian women's football team after they refuse to sing their national anthem? They're in Australia now, but will they return home? If they did seek asylum, and we do not know whether they do want to, what would that mean for their families back home?

2:46We start with the economic fallout of the US and Israeli war against Iran. Its impact is spreading across the globe. Oil prices have shot up by 20 % today to more than$100 a barrel and stock markets have fallen. Donald Trump has said it's a very small price to pay for what he calls world peace. G7 finance ministers have been discussing the release of emergency oil reserves but say no decision has been taken. The Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world's oil supply is usually shipped, has all been but closed to traffic for a week now. The BBC's Anna Foster is in Doha. There are beautiful wooden dows all around this jetty here.

3:29They normally take people around this harbour on tourist trips. But because of the war, that's all been cancelled. But then even further out, those are the ships that are really drawing attention at the moment. because they can't get through the Strait of Hormuz, which is just a way to my right, where the gulf really narrows. And when you look, I've been taking a look at one of these apps that shows you what shipping traffic is out there. And I've been looking at the oil tankers in particular. So if I click on this one, this is a Panamanian crude oil tanker, the Aqua One at Anka. This is the Well Sail.

4:05You can see there's a real cluster. They're stuck on the inside so they can't get out and take their cargo around the world. And similarly, on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, again, when you look on screen at all these little turquoise and red and green arrows that mark different ships, you can see, again, a cluster that need to get here to refill. And they're stuck on the other side as well. And that is why, when we talk about the global economic impact, you see it right here. You see it on this tiny screen on my phone. Everything has ground to a halt. Some oil depots in Iran have also been destroyed over the weekend.

4:45Our international business correspondent Theo Leggett told me more. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, global oil prices have increased by about$30 a barrel. So they're around$72 a barrel in late February. They're now hovering above$100. We did see a spike of$119 or thereabouts overnight, but things have tailed off a little bit. Now, that's a very significant increase. and oil prices are now at the highest level they've been since immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A lot depends on how long prices stay at these levels and how high they ultimately go. Obviously, news of the G7 talks about potentially releasing oil reserves has brought the headline price down a bit for the moment, but those decisions will undoubtedly affect where the price goes in the short term.

5:34Now, a higher oil price translates into higher costs. for factories that are making things. It's their energy bills, transport costs for goods, fuel costs for ordinary people, you know, the petrol and diesel you put in your car, those could go up. So a swathe of costs go up. We've also seen a big increase in the price of gas because about a fifth of the world's supplies of liquefied natural gas come through the Straits of Hormuz. That can increase the cost of household heating. It can increase the costs of industrial energy. It also can increase the cost of electricity. For example, in the UK, the price of electricity is very closely linked to the price of gas because gas is used in generation.

6:17So all of these costs could go up, which means if you have a sustained high oil price, it will lead to inflation. The question is how much inflation? You mentioned Russia there, and they are one country that could benefit from this because the US have already eased some sanctions on Russian oil. Do you think more of that will happen? Potentially, because this is an idea about keeping oil in the system. So what the US has done is withdrawn a threat to take action against India if India keeps on buying consignments of Russian oil against the interests of sanctions. Now, Russia has been able to supply oil despite the war in Ukraine, but those suppliers have had their price capped by action from the US, the European Union and others.

6:59What this means is it's easier for Russia to sell that oil and it may get a higher price for it. The more money Russia gets from oil, the more that feeds into Russia's budget. It eases the economic problems that have been caused by the squeeze from sanctions. And as you mentioned, the G7 finance minister's meeting today, they may release some oil reserves, but presumably that's a limited pot. They don't have a huge amount to release, do they? Yes, it is a limited pot. As I understand it, it's about four days of global output. That's the equivalent. So releasing some of that, and they certainly wouldn't release all of it, but releasing some of that in the short term would bring oil prices down.

7:34But the problem is, when do you release it? Do you release it now in order to ease whatever spike we're going through at the moment? Or do you wait until, for example, the Northern Hemisphere winter when it might be badly needed? How long do you think this crisis is going to go on for? Theo Leggett. And we have more on the economic impact of the war on our YouTube channel. Search for BBC News on YouTube and you'll find Global News Podcast in the podcast section. There's a news story available every weekday. Heavy explosions have continued to rock the Iranian capital after the country named its new supreme leader Mojtaba Khomeini.

8:10Little is known about the 56-year-old son of the last supreme leader who was killed in an airstrike nine days ago. Only a few photos and videos of him have ever been published, but it's expected he'll rule in the same way as his hard-lined father. Thousands of people have gathered in a central square in Tehran to pledge their allegiance to him. But there were chants of defiance in Tehran when the news was first announced. BBC Persian has received some messages from people in Tehran who don't support the Iranian regime with their reaction to the news. We've voiced up their words. Even the slimmest chance for a change no longer exists within the system.

8:48The assembly could not have selected anyone closer to the former leader. So everything will remain much the same. They don't even need to change their chance to support the name. Why isn't there much information available about him so we can see how charismatic he actually is? They sent out mass text saying he has become the leader. Now I'm just waiting for Trump's speech. This means that nothing is going to change. It's the same path, perhaps even worse. Anyhow, I don't think the situation can continue. I don't think that it will last. For more, I spoke to our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette.

9:26He has really been in the shadow of his father. He's been working in his office for decades, a very reclusive figure and very mysterious. I mean, just imagine that suddenly he is propelled into the top position in the Islamic Republic of Iran at a time of war. And Iranians don't even know what his voice sounds like. Last night when it was announced that Iranian friends were looking online to see any evidence of public speeches, there were none. Any time, many public events, there were hardly any. He's not held any formal government positions. They don't really know that much about him. But what they do know, as you've just been reporting, for those who support the government, it's a continuity of the Khamenei line, a hard line, conservative line.

10:16For those who had hoped that the start of the war was the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic, they think that a harsh regime will become harsher still. One of the moments that's being mentioned now in articles about him is what happened in 2005 and 2009, where a very conservative cleric, Mahmoud Amininejad, won disputed presidential elections. And the prominent reformist candidates, those who are seen as being more moderate in Iran's political spectrum, accused him of conspiring behind the scenes to rig the election victory. So if that was the beginning of his work behind the scenes, he now emerges a little bit from that shadow to see a cementing of the power of the hardliners with the reformers, including the president, Masrush Bechishkan, being pushed ever more into the sidelines.

11:12Do you think we'll even see him that much in public, at least for the moment, at least, considering he's such a target for the US and Israel? There's been not a sign of Mustafa Khamenei since Saturday morning after those first strikes, which killed not just his father, Ayatollah Khamenei, but also his mother, his wife, and one of his sons. And that, I should mention, Charlotte, is now another dimension in this war. It's deeply personal. It's about revenge. He'll want to take revenge. And Donald Trump, who didn't want him to be in power, also sees it as personal revenge, because, as we know, he doesn't like people taking issue with him.

11:50So he hasn't been seen. It was reported that he was injured and it's not clear that he is. So he's got this conundrum. He's got to project stability and continuity, but he also has to keep himself alive when he's got a target on his back. That was Lise Doucette. Along with the economic cost of this war, there's also, of course, the human cost. The greatest single loss of civilian lives came, as far as we know, right at the start of the war with an airstrike on a school in the southern town of Manab. A video uploaded by Iran's semi-official mayor news agency of the moment a missile appears to hit the school.

12:30More than 160 people died, many of them young girls. I said the video appears to show impact. Well, the video has now been verified by the BBC's in-house team of specialists. Merlin Thomas told Tim Franks the latest. We've been investigating this deadly incident that happened on the first day of the war. And in this war, there's been limited amounts of video footage emerging because of the internet blackout. But this new video that's emerged sheds new light on exactly what's happened. Because yesterday, the semi-official news agency mayor published a video moments before a missile hits the base.

13:05Now, we've slowed the video right down and we've shown it to multiple weapons experts who've identified the missile as a US Tomahawk missile. Now, it's worth saying that Israel and Iran do not have tomahawks. So to be clear, this new video doesn't show the missile hitting the school building, but you can see smoke rising in the background near the school building. And because of that, and expert analysis of verified videos and satellite imagery, it suggests that the area came under a wave of US strikes. And you can see that in satellite imagery, which shows a number of buildings that were hit.

13:40Donald Trump has said in terms, and I think it was just on Saturday that he said, when asked the question, did the US bomb the school? No, in my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran. It sounds as if this could contradict that. Yes, it casts serious doubt on what President Donald Trump has said. He obviously has blamed Iran for the strike on the school. And we've asked the US about this, and we'll continue to investigate that. But experts that we've spoken to, the body of evidence we've looked at, as well of satellite imagery indicates that the presence of a Tomahawk missile says that this was a US operation.

14:16Just briefly, I mean, any reason why the US would not be able to establish whether they had bombed the school by now? It's not clear. Normally, in these kinds of operations, they would have intelligence that would indicate where they've struck. So they've not explained and been forthcoming as to why they haven't come forward with an answer. That was Merlin Thomas. Still to come in this podcast When we actually start looking at objects and can actually see chisel marks or somebody's thumbprint or something like that you immediately become more connected to the person who made it A new finding reveals ancient Egyptians were just like us

15:01This is not the future we were promised Like, how about that for a tagline for the show?

15:38To Turkey now.

15:44Large crowds of supporters of Istanbul's jailed mayor marching ahead of a landmark corruption trial that they call politically motivated. Ekrem İmimoglu was arrested shortly after announcing his intention to run for president and is seen as one of the few politicians capable of defeating President Erdogan. If Ekrem Imamoglu had not announced his presidential candidacy, today he would still be in office as the metropolitan mayor. Today, with a political coup, with a political trial, he's being held in a trap. The case is political. Our mayors are imprisoned because it is political. I do not believe there is any corruption, nor do I want to believe it.

16:28He faces more than 140 charges, including corruption and running a criminal organisation. Emre Temel from the BBC's Turkish service told me more. Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed on the same day he was announced as presidential candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, in March last year. And his arrest triggered Turkey's largest street protests in more than a decade. This is a long-awaited trial which began today. It is expected to last several years and it is considered as one of the most significant legal proceedings in recent Turkish political history. We heard the accusations.

17:09At the time, Istanbul's chief public prosecutor, Akın Gürlek, who is Turkey's justice minister now, requested prison sentences totaling more than 2 ,500 years. Mr. İmamoğlu denies all the charges. His request for the trial to be broadcast live on TV has been rejected by the government. Wow. I mean, what's the mood in Turkey around this trial? Obviously, we heard from some of his supporters there, but presumably some people have different feelings. Yes, the mood is tense and unpolarised, I should say. Many opposition supporters view the trial as politically motivated, as we heard, aimed at weakening a key challenger to Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

17:47And street protests and demonstrations have reflected anger and frustration among Mr. Imamoglu's supporters. And today's courtroom scenes have been kind of chaotic. Applause for the mayor signaling a strong public opinion. However, on the other hand, pro-government supporters largely accept the judicial process as legitimate. President Erdogan and his party maintain that Turkish judiciary is independent. However, overall, I should say, this trial has intensified political tension and raised public concern about the state of democracy in Turkey. And human rights groups external have also raised concerns, haven't they?

18:28Yes, they have expressed concern over the independence of Turkish courts. And trial has drawn widespread criticism outside the country. Both Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have denounced it as politically motivated. They both argue that the case undermines democratic norms and judicial independence, independence, sorry, and Amnesty specifically highlighted concerns over secret witness testimony and fair trial violations. Overall, international reaction reflects significant unease about democracy and human rights in Turkey. Emre Temel, to South Sudan, where the world's youngest nation is grappling with instability and fears of a return to civil war.

19:14Thousands of people have fled the rebel stronghold of Okobo in Jongle State after the army issued an evacuation order as it prepares a new military offensive. Government forces are trying to retake territory from those loyal to First Vice President Riyat Marker, who's in detention in Juba on charges of murder, treason and crimes against humanity, which he denies. Kalkadan Yibatel is at an aid centre. This is a humanitarian hub in Bor, which is the capital of Jonglei State. It's South Sudan's largest state and recently it's most restive. Since the beginning of the year, there have been intense clashes in various areas within the state, between government forces and rebels that are aligned with imprisoned opposition leader Rick Machar.

20:01Now, over the weekend, the army has announced an evacuation order in a county called Akobo, which is one of the most remote in the state. It said that it's about to launch a new military offensive and it told humanitarian agencies, members of the UN mission to close their offices and evacuate. It also told civilians to try to seek shelter in government-controlled areas. Now, this Akobo area is a stronghold for the rebel forces. I've been speaking to some of the aid organisations here and they were telling me that thousands of people are already fleeing from that county, county, many of them on Sunday, some crossed borders into neighboring Ethiopia because that county is close to the Ethiopian border and others are you know running away in different directions.

20:48Aid organizations have left the area as well in UN chartered plans on Sunday which means some of the towns in those areas are currently deserted. Civilians have often been caught in the crossfire an unknown number of people have been killed and close to 300 ,000 people are displaced. The most recent evacuation order is feared to exacerbate these situations and even more people are feared to flee their homes. That's going to worsen the humanitarian situation which is already dire as it is. Added to that, this ongoing insecurity, it's going to be very difficult for many desperate people to receive very essential supplies that they require.

21:31Kalkadan Yibatow. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has said he's sending drone experts to the Middle East this week to help Gulf states under attack from Iran. Just before we recorded this podcast, Mr Zelensky said that 11 countries had asked for Ukraine's help after it spent four years inventing cheap and effective ways of defending the skies from similar Russian attacks. Our diplomatic correspondent, James Landale, is in Ukraine and has been to see the latest anti-drone technology the country has to offer. We're standing in a field in the middle of the Ukrainian countryside and it's a place where people come to test drones.

22:10We've come to look at a drone called a bullet. They're putting it together in front of us and it looks like a very strange weapon, a hybrid weapon. Half quadcopter drone, half plastic shell. and it's the latest technology, the latest design that the Ukrainians have come up with to destroy lethal Russian Shahid drones that attack Ukraine almost nightly.

22:41The bullet's just taken off, rising on its four propellers and then suddenly, whoosh, away it goes. It tips on its side, rockets away and now it's just a small speck on the horizon. Top speed is well over 300 kilometres an hour.

23:04This is one of Ukraine's newest and fastest interceptors. And the idea behind it is very simple. The pilots launch the bullet and use a first-person camera simply to crash it into an incoming drone. They're deadly, and the pilots know they could be just as effective against similar Iranian Shahid drones, causing havoc across the Middle East. This drone pilot, callsign Draka, thinks Ukraine has much to offer. Honestly, we have enough work here. But we understand that this war is spreading across the world and that Iran is an ally of Russia. So I think we could find the resources to send our instructors to train people who are fighting the same enemy.

23:53We've come now to the factory where the drones are made. There are rows and rows of men and women soldering, assembling, fixing, sorting. And there are piles and piles of these drones. You really get a sense of just how relatively simple it is to make these drones and why they're so cheap. Stanislav Grushin is co-founder of the General Cherry drone company. Are you surprised that it has taken this amount of time for the rest of the world to wake up to the importance of this? Speaking honestly, I'm really surprised. It seems that every country is preparing to the past wars, but not the ongoing ones.

24:38Have any countries come to you? Have you had extra demand requests in the last week? Yes, a lot of state agents from different countries from all over the world, not just Arabic ones who are already facing the threat from Iran, they understand now how it may be. The request is pretty high and very urgent. President Zelensky says Ukrainian experts will arrive in the Gulf this week to offer immediate help with drone defences. But he's clear nothing should damage Ukraine's own, and he's looking to swap interceptors for more Patriot missiles. The war in the Middle East poses risks for Kiev. Rising oil prices fueling Russia's war machine, distracted allies turning their attention elsewhere.

25:30But Ukraine's hard-won expertise in interceptor drones gives President Zelensky an opportunity, not just to win new friends and funds in the Gulf but also to keep his war from being forgotten.