Prepare for a more intense El Niño, UN warns

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1:10Moto Casino is a free-to-play social casino. No purchase necessary. 21 plus to play. Void or prohibited. Sign up today for a generous welcome bonus. Moto Casino. America's social casino. Download the Moto Casino app today. This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service.

1:53Israel and Hezbollah. Two people have died in central Kenya during protests against plans to establish a US-backed Ebola isolation centre. Also in this podcast... I would be frank with you, we feel abandoned. We will continue to fight, for us it's existential, but I think the world really should step in and stop this suffering and stop these killings. Ukraine remains defiant after one of the deadliest Russian attacks of recent months and our arts correspondent speaks to actors Tom Hanks and Tim Allen ahead of their fifth outing as Woody and Buzz.

2:38A new phase of the natural Anino weather pattern could begin in the next few months, the UN has warned, boosting temperatures on the planet already under strain from climate change. The World Meteorological Organization says this El Niño is likely to strengthen over the rest of 2026, driving more extreme weather events around much of the globe. Several forecasts from national weather agencies suggest it could end up as one of the strongest ever recorded, a possible so-called super El Niño. Here's the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres. I thank the World Meteorological Organization for this vital new update.

3:20The science is clear. El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 % certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. impacts will eat even harder, travel even further and cross borders with devastating speeds. I heard more about El Niño from our climate editor Justin Rowlett. It's a change in the pattern of winds in the central, the tropical Pacific Ocean. So the trade winds that normally blow east to west either stop or reverse direction. And that affects the currents of water under the ocean.

4:06So the ocean collects heat from the atmosphere, and instead of that heat traveling towards the west, it begins to travel towards the east. And we've got a series of satellites. There are moored buoys. There are floating buoys in the Pacific that measure water temperatures. And scientists can see this kind of pulse, a kind of wave of undersea heat developing and moving steadily across the ocean towards the west coast of South America, where it upwells and that raises surface temperatures. So the undersea, this water under the water, is up to six degrees Celsius higher than you'd expect at this time of year.

4:47That's a really significant increase in temperature. When it gets to the surface off the coast of South America in the autumn towards the winter, we're expecting surface temperatures to be two degrees Celsius or more than you would normally expect them to be. That is a huge increase in temperature. And that heat obviously is radiated out into the atmosphere. And that's where you get the kind of ripple of consequences on weather patterns around the world. The weather is really all about the transfer of heat from the oceans into the atmosphere and then around the globe. And the more heat you have, it changes weather patterns.

5:21So, for example, we can expect to see things like droughts and wildfires in places like the Amazon, Australia, and then into Southeast Asia, even into India, so it can affect the Indian monsoon with huge consequences there and indeed around the world. Justin Rowlett. Listening to that was our global affairs reporter, Anbarasan Etirajan. So what impact could this have in South Asia and further afield? As Justin was mentioning, the monsoon is going to have an impact because the Indian weather forecasters are saying India is likely to receive the lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years. Now, why this is important?

5:58Because nearly 70 percent of water resources in India, they get their water mainly from this monsoon rain. And given that more than 50 percent of India's farmlands don't have proper irrigation facility, they depend on rainwater. So if there is any deficiency in rain, that is going to have an impact on food production. In the previous years, for example, India, when they faced this illinear condition, food production went down, the prices shot up. As a result, they stopped grain exports, for example, non-Basmati rice. So India is the largest exporter of rice in the world. So if India stops exporting, then the global prices go up.

6:39And also India is one of the biggest producers of sugar. So it can have an impact, but then again, it can also increase inflation within India as well. And this has real consequences for real people, including a lot of very poor people. First of all, the heat itself is causing a lot of damage. What we are seeing is 45, 46, even up to 47 degrees. A lot of farm laborers and day-to-day workers, migrant workers working in the heat. You know, you usually see thousands of deaths because of the heat stroke and other things. where people are feeling the heat more. But I also have to mention about this heavy rains, a month-long rain coming in within three days, for example, what we saw in Sri Lanka last year that was attributed to the changing weather pattern.

7:23And in countries like in Indonesia, wildfires, that is the main concern because the last time in 2023, in the new effect, they had 1.16 million hectares of forest cover. It was burned down because of wildfires. That is a big concern for Indonesia and also in Australia. So the drought, the extended, the prolonged drought can cause a huge impact on the environment in Southeast Asia as well. Anbarasan Etta Rajan. Despite Israel and Hezbollah accepting a US plan to implement a partial ceasefire, fighting continued in southern Lebanon. But there have been no fresh Israeli attacks on the capital Beirut.

8:04President Trump said he'd spoken to both sides and they had agreed that all shooting will stop, his words, after Iran warned Israeli military actions in Lebanon were a threat to the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Lina Sinjab is in Beirut. These talks really saved Beirut an attack, saved Dahyeh an attack, which is the southern part of Beirut, southern suburb, a Hezbollah stronghold that has been targeted in 2024 and continue to be targeted. It's been really a very tense day yesterday with thousands of people fleeing for their safety from Dahye neighborhood who are still stranded. The morning started with an imminent strike expected on Dahye, but it didn't happen.

8:47And that's because of these kind of round of talks that mainly the U.S. president done after Iranian pressure to include Lebanon in a ceasefire deal. This is the first time that the U.S. president talks even indirectly to Hezbollah, which is an organization designated as a terror one, but that spared Beirut a strike. Hezbollah agreed not to target northern Israel, and Israel agreed not to target Beirut. But in between these two, the south is out of the equation where bombardment and airstrikes continued yesterday with more than 20 people killed, including an attack on a hospital in the city of Tyre.

9:29What do Lebanese people think about these promises from the White House and Israel? I think people are really holding hopes to anything that could stop the violence in Lebanon. Even though Beirut is spared this attack, but many parts of Dahi are destroyed. They've been destroyed since 2024 war and now more destruction. Displaced people are scattered in the country, in Beirut, in the north, in the mountains, in shelters, in schools, but even in tents. They're still staying in tents. The greater fear is that the South is now sacrificed, that the Israelis have boots on the ground. They occupy big swathes of land, including a strategic castle, the Beaufort Castle that dates back to 900 years old.

10:17and they feel that this is the Israeli tactics in South Lebanon are similar to Gaza, destruction and occupation. Briefly, is there a way forward? Diplomatic pressure, but we've seen what the diplomatic pressure done to Gaza. There are still attacks in Gaza. There are still daily killing in Gaza. Big swathes destroyed and the Israelis want to expand more. And the fear is that South of Lebanon is going to be the same. Lina Sinjab in Beirut. In many parts of Ukraine, a huge clean-up is underway after what was one of the deadliest Russian attacks in recent months. The eastern cities of Dnipro and Kharkiv were targeted by hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles, as was the capital.

11:03Emergency crews have been out in almost all districts of Kiev, with teams searching for people feared trapped beneath rubble. As we record this podcast, at least 21 are known to have died, including two children. Dozens were injured. Russia said the strikes had been a response to previous Ukrainian attacks and all their objectives had been achieved. The Ukrainian MP Alexei Gonchorenko said the world is distracted by other conflicts and his country was suffering as a result. The United States now definitely completely observed by what's going on in the Middle East and in reality the negotiations which were started by President Trump for last year, they have no result for the moment.

11:46I would be frank with you, we feel abandoned. We will continue to fight, for us it's existential, but I think the world really should step in and stop this suffering and stop these killings and stop this next escalation which is happening right now. The world has means to do this, but unfortunately it looks like it doesn't have the will to do this, at least for the moment. The Kremlin says the war in Ukraine has entered a different paradigm because of what it called inhumane acts of terror carried out by Ukraine. I got this assessment from our diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams. I mean, there seems to be a reference to the Ukrainian attack on eastern Ukraine on a Russian facility in Starobilsk back in towards the end of May, the Russians said that 21 students were killed in a dormitory.

12:40The Ukrainians said it was being used as a headquarters for a drone unit. There's no independent verification either way, but it does seem to have triggered a very strong Russian response. I think the background to this is increasing Russian frustration at the glacial pace of the war and the Kremlin's inability to make significant gains in recent months. And more and more commentators are talking in terms of the war taking a turn now in Ukraine's favour. They see Russia's combat performance waning, Ukraine managing its manpower issues more effectively, a favourable casualty rate, favourable to Ukraine, that is, better tactics being deployed by the Ukrainians.

13:24Obviously, Russia still has an overwhelming advantage in manpower and has shown itself able to adapt. So I don't think anyone's predicting the immediate end of the war. But I think the massive use of drone and missile strikes show that that tactic really is proof that Moscow still believes that it can break Ukraine's will through the use of air power at a time when Ukraine's air defences are severely depleted. Yeah, but for all of that, we heard from the Ukrainian MP Alexei Gonchorenko saying the country feels abandoned. Is that true? What's the West doing to help? Well, you know, before the war with Iran, there were active negotiations going on to try and get a ceasefire in Ukraine.

14:07Those negotiations came to an abrupt end. Donald Trump is clearly distracted. Europe talks up its role as a supporter of Ukraine, but it doesn't represent a viable alternative as an interlocutor with Russia to try and get a ceasefire. And the Russians are certainly absolutely not interested in Europe performing that role. Europe can certainly support Ukraine. You know, it's passed an enormous 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine, but it's no substitute in terms of brokering a ceasefire. Plus, of course, we have a lack of hardware. A lot of the hardware that Ukraine would want to use to defend itself against aerial attacks has been sucked into the conflict in the Gulf.

14:52You know, it's very, very good at shooting down drones. But when it comes to ballistic missiles, you need Patriot missiles, and only the Americans can supply those. Paul Adams. The world's largest trader in ships for recycling has told the BBC that hundreds of Shadow Fleet vessels are operating on the high seas beyond their design life with no legal route to be decommissioned. Industry figures warn this could lead to an environmental disaster. The US sanctions watchdog has now approved a special licence allowing four sanctioned ships to be sold for scrap. Here's our business reporter, David Waddell.

15:29There could be 700 ships operating beyond their design life, according to GMS, which specialises in getting old ships off the sea. This licence covers four ships, So it's a drop in the ocean, if you like, but it's the first license of its kind issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control. That's an arm of the U.S. Treasury. These are container ships going by the names of Rantanplan, Bigli, Timon and Yogi, all about 20 years old. That's not too old and all sanctioned for trading in Iranian goods. I spoke to Dr. Anil Sharma. He's the founder of GMS. He's been working for seven months to secure these licenses.

16:09So he's celebrating. But his firm's big focus is tankers. When you remove a tanker from the trade, what are you doing? You're reducing that ship's ability to carry two million barrels of oil per trip. And so you're also limiting the ability for the sanctioned oil to move in a cost-effective manner. The old ships can really undercut the market. Safe ships would ask for a higher price, higher freight. The sanctions are designed to sting anyone who deals with them. So many ports won't accept them. Insurance is hard to come by. GMS can't buy them and mainstream recycling facilities can't receive them.

16:50I've been told by the International Shipping Association, BIMCO, that in fact some are being recycled, but it's very much under the radar and in breach of the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships, which is a fairly recent convention. Here's Gudrun Janssen's, the ship recycling lead for BIMCO. Sanctioned ships, the problem is that no one can really touch them. So the moment a recycler enters into a deal that involves a sanctioned ship or a sanctioned company, there is a real risk for the recycler itself of being caught by the sanction regime as well.

17:27So what that means in practice is that more ships risk being abandoned or ending up in unsafe, substandard ship recycling facilities. She told me it's up from 85 in 2020 to over 400 abandoned vessels last year. and yet there are many hundreds of such ships still at sea. Let's look back to the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. She ran aground on a reef off the coast of Alaska and spilled 37 ,000 tons of oil. It killed hundreds of thousands of seabirds and thousands of other sea creatures. Exxon Valdez was quite young and went on to operate until 2012 but some of these ships are well beyond their design life.

18:07Their hulls are fragile and as a direct result of sanctions, their engines are often poorly maintained. Should one of these run aground, particularly a very large crude carrier or supertanker, we could be looking at an environmental catastrophe. Our business reporter, David Waddell. Still to come in this podcast. First, a Paralympic medal for sprinting. Now, preparations for blast-off. The reality is we don't know what it is like for someone with a disability. I'm a lower limb amputee. What it's going to be like for someone with a disability like mine living and working in space.

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21:27This is the Global News Podcast. At least two people have been killed in Kenya amid protests against a new US-backed Ebola quarantine centre near the town of Nanyuki. Hundreds of demonstrators marched through the streets on Monday, blocking roads and burning tyres. Police fired tear gas to disperse them. The Kenyan government has defended the construction of the centre by citing a health treaty with the US. The BBC's Thomas Mukwana sent this report from the scene.

22:22and the vandalism of a law court and also a few shops. But police, we've seen a few police vehicles full of anti-riot police officers and also backup from the base to try and stop this protest from happening today. But people still say that they will show up to voice their discontent with what's happening. But there's reports of aircrafts showing up in the facility, aircrafts flying in, big aircrafts that are supposed to construct this facility that is now barred by the courts. It's still ongoing, and the president and the Ministry of Health looks firmly in control of what's happening. And they say that they're going to keep this up because it's good for the Kenyan public.

22:56But the people will show up again. Everything is safe today. But they are saying that they will show up. Protesters from more places outside Manuki will come here to try and bolster the protests that will hopefully not stand violent. But they may occur today and we'll keep briefing you on what happens here. Mohamed Yacoub Janabi is the Africa Regional Director for the World Health Organization. He's just come back from visiting Bunia, the epicentre of the Ebola outbreak in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. So what I saw on the ground was humbling and inspiring. I met with health workers, communities and religious leaders, partners, organisation, working day and night under very extreme difficult conditions.

23:40My message to those affected communities was very clear and direct. Ebola can be stopped, but only if we respond quickly together and with trust, because I saw the contact tracing is still around 45 percent. And for our WHO standards, at least 80 percent to reach 95. People, they tell you, they've got their beliefs. Some believe it's poison. Some believe it's a curse and it's a mining area that maybe is a blessing when more people die. One of the efforts, Director General Tedros and myself when we were on the ground, was to engage the community. Because to me, any outbreak, including this one, there are three main things.

24:25One, to engage the community. Two, to protect your frontline health workers. And three, it's a very rapid diagnosis. And you can't get the diagnosis without tracing the people. Communities need a very clear, very accurate information in the languages they use and from voices they trust. Local leaders, faith leaders, women's group, youth leaders. People must understand what is Ebola, how it is spread, the symptoms to look for, and why early care dramatically improves survival. We have discharged six of our health workers who contracted in the early stages. The message should never be do as we say, but rather let us work together to protect your family and your community.

25:15It's starting to get through. Community engagement is not an add-on. It's one of the most powerful tools we have to stop transmission, especially when you are dealing with the bodybuja, which you don't have any validated therapeutics or any vaccine. So it's very important to educate. I'll give you a very living example. When my photos went out there in the social media, a very close family member wrote me, why don't you wear a mask? You are there. This is not an airborne disease. This is a direct contact with a patient, not direct contact to people who are healthy, direct contact with someone who is Ebola positive.

25:57Now, what brings even more challenges now is when borders are closed, When you close the borders, which the borders themselves, they are porous. People will just use illegal entry routes, which it will be very difficult to get the contact. Mohamed Yacoub Janabi from the World Health Organization. A British man, John McFall, lost a leg at the age of 19. It has not held him back. He won a bronze in sprinting at the 2008 Beijing Paralympics. He's worked as an orthopaedic surgeon and he can fly a plane. Now, an agreement has been signed by the UK government with the US commercial space industry known as VAST that could see him go to space.

26:43He told Justin Webb more about it. This particular agreement brings me one step closer to hopefully realising a world's first, which is a professional astronaut in space who happens to have a physical disability, living and working as a professional astronaut. the reality is we don't know what it is like for someone with a disability I'm a lower limb amputee what it's going to be like for someone with a disability like mine living and working in space is missing a leg going to be a hindrance is having wearing a prosthesis going to be of benefit what happens to the physiology of someone with a limb missing in space because I have slightly less lower body volume to start with i.e missing a leg will there be less fluid shift up towards my trunk and my head.

27:28And we know that fluid shift in living and working in microgravity can cause problems with the eyes. So might I be less susceptible to those conditions? There is an awful lot to learn. I mean, those are interesting questions, but the basic fact that you are medically fit to go has already been sorted out. You are, aren't you? Yeah. I've met all the medical requirements to fly to space and technically met the operational requirements. And it's just a question of now realising that opportunity, getting an opportunity to fly in space and demonstrate actually that it is feasible and also learn an awful lot of when doing it.