Syria special

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0:49Hello, I'm Oliver Conway. We're recording this at 18 hours GMT on Saturday the 7th of December. Rebels in Syria are bearing down on the capital Damascus from the north and south. Government forces say they've put a strong cordon around the city, but the insurgents are reported to have closed to within 10 kilometres, and there have been protests in the suburbs. We'll ask, is this the end for President Assad, or can his Russian and Iranian allies save him once again?

1:21Ever since the uprising sparked by the Arab Spring nearly 14 years ago, the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has maintained his grip on power. He's faced opposition from pro-democracy activists, various jihadist groups including al-Qaeda and ISIS and other militants, but with the help of his allies from Russia and Iran and a devastating bombing campaign, he held on. For the past few years there's been an uneasy stalemate, but now after a lightning advance by Islamist insurgents, there are real questions over whether President Assad can survive. On the outskirts of the capital itself, there have been reports of protests.

2:09Footage on social media of demonstrators toppling a statue of President Assad's late father Hafez in a Damascus suburb. Other videos showed portraits of the president himself being attacked and the Syrian flag being pulled down at a busy intersection just eight kilometres from the city centre.

2:31Well, amid that anger from ordinary people, government forces are on the back foot in central, southern and eastern Syria. Rebels from the south are said to be just 10 kilometres from Damascus. In the east, the Kurds took control as the authorities pulled out, but the main threat has come through the heart of the country, from Islamist insurgents of the HTS group, which arose out of the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda. After taking Aleppo and Hama, they are now moving into Homs, a strategic city that links the capital to the Assad Alawite heartland on the Mediterranean coast. For the latest, I'm joined by our Middle East correspondent, Lina Sinjab, in Beirut.

3:11Lina, tell us about the threat to Damascus. The rebels are advancing in quick pace. We're hearing reports that they are really surrounding Damascus from different parts. They certainly came from the south, from Deraa and other parts of the south approaching the city, something that the government in Damascus is still denying. But talking to residents in Damascus, in the capital itself, people are worried, are watching with cautiousness. Many people are staying home. The markets, shops are closed. Syrian pound devaluated. Basic commodities are scarce. So it's really a chaotic scene and people are worried.

3:49They feel things will not go back the same at all after. But what's going to happen after, nobody knows. Some reports and some people suggesting Assad should go. Others are saying that he's staying put and he's going to defend until the last minute. And in between the two versions of the story, people are worried about violence erupting, mainly by the government so that they protect their positions. Yeah, the Syrian army says it is boosting its defences around Damascus, but so far they haven't been able to slow the advances. Certainly so, and we're also hearing reports from Homs that the rebels are advancing, and Homs was like a very crucial city for the regime because they thought if they control Homs, they control the highway to Damascus, they control their links to the coastal cities, and if Homs falls, it means that the roads are cut to the coastal sides, and that's where many of the Alawite supporters of President Bashar al-Assad are located.

4:47I'm also hearing that many of the Alawites who are in Damascus are worried. Some have already fled to the coastal cities. Things are really hurting up on the ground. While meetings are ongoing in Doha between the Turks, the Russians and the Iranians, there are some talks about a peace roadmap that should be followed. We're hearing some leaks that President Assad may stay for six months in power and hand over power to an interim government to be elected. But all this is hard to confirm now as we have to see what the president comes out and speak about officially to his own people, something that he hasn't done yet.

5:26Yeah. And looking at that central city of Homs that you mentioned, a rebel commander say they've overrun an army camp there and a string of villages. Are government forces putting up a defense? They have been putting up some defense until this morning. I've been talking to people inside Homs, some of the Alawites' family who opposed Assad secretly and decided to stay. They're hearing some shooting, some fighting, sometimes sporadic artillery shelling, but they also know that the rebels have advanced. There is communication going on between Alawites outside and those who decided to stay inside.

6:02They are communicating also with the rebels to give assurances to the Alawites who stayed. And I've also heard from them that there are a couple of towns where the rebels have entered, where there are Alawites living there, no attacks to civilians, no records of any violations against civilians from the Alawites. So things are moving so fast to be able to grasp what's going to happen next. But obviously, Assad has lost, you know, cities. And the final call is actually in Damascus. What happens in Damascus will decide the face of the coastal cities where the Alawites are based. And briefly, he was saved before by his allies, Russia and Iran.

6:43Any sign of them? That has changed. I think the whole operation started at the moment. The rebels have ceased because Iran and Hezbollah are weakened, weakened in Lebanon, weakened in Syria with continuous Israeli airstrikes against their military bases, their weapons, preventing them from crossing into Lebanon and sending weapons into Lebanon. And now we've heard reports that Iranians have ordered all their non-essential personnel and families to leave. We've heard reports about them leaving via airports in Damascus and via Lebanon. Hezbollah is already weakened in Lebanon and the few fighters who remain in Syria.

7:20We hear a hearing report that they are in Qusayr, close to the border between Syria and Lebanon. Russia is very busy with Ukraine, but also upset with Assad that they have been asking him for sitting down on the table with the Turks and he has been refusing. So it seems that the table has changed, but we just have to wait to see what officially is going to come out as what's going to happen. Many people I speak to on the ground, they say the distance is big between what the politicians are talking about in these meetings and the reality on the ground with the fast advancement of the rebels. Lina, many thanks indeed, Lina Sinjab from Lebanon.

7:56Well, let's talk now to Mahmoud Ali Hamad from BBC Arabic. We were talking briefly about the south. Now, you are from Duraa, which was one of the centres of the original protest movement, and that has fallen to opposition forces. What are you hearing from there? What we are hearing is that the whole province has been left to the rebels. There's been a safe corridor that ensured those forces would reach Damascus with no issues. So this is probably the easiest takeover of a city in modern history. And are they the forces who are now pushing up towards Damascus? No, I think so far, we are ignoring the fact that the borders with Jordan, that's down south, is quite different from what we are witnessing on the Turkish borders, where there is lines of logistical support coming through the borders and the freedom of movement that the fighters there enjoy.

8:52This cannot be said about Daraa. Daraa's borders are under the direct control of the Jordanian and the coalition forces led by the United States. And there's a military base in the Tenev, which is very close to Daraa province. So I think at this point, the rebels in the south are trying to stabilize the front, maybe hoping, if you think about the military objective, is to link with the rebels' forces coming from the north. We've heard about the takeover of the T-4 airport, a very important military airport to the Syrian regime, and was to the Russian up until 2018 before they withdrew their assets from there to send to Ukraine.

9:38So that airport to the east of the capital has been taken over. So now the capital is vulnerable from the north and the east. The south now is just waiting to create that linkage where they can actually get more ammunitions, more military hardware if they are ever going to have a chance of advancing into the capital. We know that the capital is not really controlled by the army itself, the traditional, regular Syrian army. There are still some Iranian allied militias and from the Iraqi militias are stationed in very important intersections in the capital, guarding the palaces, guarding sensitive institutions such as the Syrian television, state television.

10:23And there is the security compounds that have traditionally ruled the city. So now the regular forces that have pulled back from Homs, they are trying to concentrate their forces south of Jadat Artuz, which is the northern gate to the capital. And we have heard from our contacts in Damascus, people who live actually less than two kilometers away from Jadat Artuz. And they are telling us that they can hear the fighting approaching the city, which is creating a sense of apprehension. But there's no lawlessness so far. Things seem to have gone to plan or even better than what's been planned by the rebels.

11:05The regime, if you watch what they are putting on social media or on state national TV, I mean, it has become a pastime entertainment for me to watch the Syrian state TV in the last 48 and 72 hours. And it's quite bizarre. It's like they are living in a parallel world. And obviously, you understand why they're putting out such statements. It's because the only thing that is left for them is to reassure the population of the capital that we are still here. It's not over yet. And maybe they are trying to buy time because from the lookout of it, it is actually a very bad situation to be in for the Syrian regime.

11:45Mahmoud Ali Hamad of BBC Arabic. Well, we're also joined by our Middle East regional editor, Sebastian Arshad. So there are all these different groups approaching Damascus from the north and from the south. They've lost control in the east. I mean, what does the government still control in Syria? We don't know 100%. I mean, I think as Mahmoud was saying there, I mean, the real key is the hardcore Praetorian guard, essentially, around President Assad. Is that going to hold? I mean, forget about the government forces. I think that is an issue that's finished, essentially. They haven't shown any appetite for the battle in any of the places so far, whether it's the south, the east or the north.

12:26But you would think there are very, very strong vested interests, obviously, that have developed over the war, but already existed, but even more so, which are allied both to the economic and the military support for President Assad. And it's basically, are they going to stage a fight? Do they think there's still something to fight for? Or are they basically going to get out while they still can? and President Assad, we don't know if he's there, we don't know if he's not. I mean, there are rumors flying around. We had the president's office saying that he is, denying rumors that he'd left, saying that essentially he is about his official business.

13:00I would say that looking at what happened in the past, I mean, there were moments like in 2014, 2015, when it looked like President Assad was about to lose before the Russians came in and he didn't leave then. I would say that going by that pattern, it may well be that President Assad is still there. He is still perhaps holding to a belief that there is this circle of steel, as the interior minister was talking about, Mahmoud says, but it's been almost like a fantasy land hearing about that, that they're still using those words. And there may be some reality to that still. I mean, the real, as I say, hardcore that has surrounded President Assad, we do not know if that is broken yet.

13:38And there may be a sense that they feel they can hold out. And if they can buy time, again, as Mahmoud said, that could change the situation. The rebels are not united. There were divisions before. It wasn't just for Russian and Iranian supporters. The rebels were fighting amongst each other, that they didn't get support from outside, etc., etc. All of that could still be holding out hope for President Assad and the elite around him, that they can stay the course. And they've got a huge amount to lose if they go, yes, they've got money. Yes, they can go outside. but I mean that can be frozen, there can be all sorts of issues.

14:10So I think they will hold on for as long as they believe that there is a chance and I don't think they might have reached that stage yet where they feel the final chance is snuffed even as we watch from outside and it feels like the rapidity of this as Lina was saying is so intense that it can't be withstood. And that is all from us for now but we'll have an update in our regular edition of the Global News Podcast in a couple of hours. This special was mixed by Derek Clark and produced by Nikki Verrico. Our editors, Karen Martin. I'm Oliver Conway. For now, goodbye.

15:07It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.