The Global Story: The fight for the Arctic

0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:02so you don't miss a single episode. Here's my colleague Katya Adler. During Donald Trump's first time in office, when he said he wanted to acquire Greenland, many dismissed this as hyperbole, a nonsense even. But now, days away from taking office a second time, he seems on an expansionist role, taunting Canada. It should become the USA's 51st state, that he wants America to reacquire the Panama Canal and insisting that Greenland must become a US property for strategic security, he said. People really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it. But if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security.

1:48That's for the free world. I'm talking about protecting the free world. Greenland, the biggest island in the world, is an autonomous Danish territory. Rich in oil, gas reserves and other natural resources like zinc, gold and copper, it sits between the US and Russia and is already home to a US military base. Its geostrategic significance is very clear. It's also hugely important in terms of climate conversations and its melting ice is also opening up new profitable maritime trade routes, a development catching the attention of countries further afield, like China. With all these competing interests, could we be looking at a brewing Cold War in the Arctic, or as some are calling it, an ice war?

2:39It made headlines all over the world this week. Donald Trump refused to rule out the use of military force or economic coercion against NATO-allied Denmark to wrest control of Greenland. And as he was doing that, his son popped over to the territory he claimed for an innocent tourist visit. Here as tourists, we're just really excited to be here. Awesome country. The scenery coming in was just spectacular. But to those in the know, Arctic security and the battle for influence there has been a growing concern for a number of years. Mr. Trump is certainly not the only one with a keen interest there.

3:18Conveniently, before he returned his focus to Greenland, here on The Global Story, we were already preparing an episode for you on the role of China and Russia in the Arctic. I sat down with the BBC's defence correspondent, Jonathan Beale, and Tim Marshall, journalist and author of Prisoners of Geography and the Future of Geography.

3:41Let's start with some basic geography, Tim. Which countries are Arctic countries? So when we're talking about the Arctic Circle. We tend to look at a map and there it is up at the top of the map. A much better map to understand the geography of it is looking top down onto it as that circle. And then you see those countries' coastlines on the rim of the ocean itself. So more than half of the coastline is Russian. And then there's land in parts of Canada, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway. Even the circle comes down into parts of Sweden and, of course, America with the Alaska part of it. Not everyone gets a chance to go to the Arctic and experience the conditions there, but both of you have.

4:28Jonathan, I think you've been to every part of the Arctic, is that right? No, I haven't been to the Russian bit, which is probably the most interesting bit, but I've been to the Norwegian part of the Arctic, the Finnish part of the Arctic. I've also been to Alaska, where the US has some military bases, missile defence systems based there. First threat in the system now showing impact location of Chicago. We are engaging at this time. Director, MCS reports a second quick alert. This is the control room where America would launch its ground-based missile interceptors. Director, comms, brought to Chicago, successfully intercepted and destroyed.

5:04These operators linked up to satellites in space and radar on the ground can respond within seconds. I don't think anyone has crystal ball clarity of where the threat is and where it'll come from, but know that our crews are trained, ready and prepared. I mean, most of what I've covered is military elements of the Arctic. I have been close to the border between Norway and I went on a border patrol with the Norwegians, actually, on their small border with Russia at the top near Kirkenes. a very odd experience because they patrol the borders. Sometimes they do actually pass Russian patrols, but they're not allowed to interact with them.

5:44But yes, I mean, it is a much more sort of potentially, you know, dangerous area now, given that the tensions that have been between, well, not tensions, the war that exists between Russia and Ukraine, and clearly Russia worried about what NATO is doing. And let's have a look, Jonathan, at why we're talking about the Arctic right now. geo-strategically, what's so important? Because you might be forgiven for thinking, well, I mean, there's not much there, the vast expanse of ice that we've been describing, sadly, bits of it melting. But why is it interesting for countries to compete to have control over the Arctic?

6:25Yeah, I think the simple answer is oil and gas. That is, there are large reserves in the Arctic region. And that is why a lot of countries are interested. I mean, there are more basic economic reasons. Russia, I think, gets about a third of its fish from the Arctic region. And then there's the melting ice. So the disappearance of the ice in the Northern Sea passage. And that is opening up a potential trade route from Asia to Europe, which could be exploited better in some years than other years. But for example, in theory, if you were going from Asia via the Suez Canal to Europe, it would take you around 37 days.

7:06If you were able to navigate through the Northern Sea passage, that would take you 23 days. So that's one of the reasons possibly that countries are getting more interested is because they realise that that is a sea route. And as Tim mentioned, Russia swallows up more than half the territory of that sea route and therefore would like to control that sea route. And we've seen what's happened in the Pacific with China and the seas around it trying to control the freedom of navigation, which is worried, particularly the US. The same worry could happen in the Arctic. And it isn't just sea passage trade, Tim, is it?

7:44I mean, Jonathan mentioned oil and gas, but there are other minerals on there, zinc, nickel, iron, and there's a worldwide race for those these days too. Yes, because some of that stuff is the stuff you need for renewable energy. And that's part of the sort of the new gold rush. There's definitely gold itself up there. There's zinc and there's nickel. The natural resources, I mean, these figures are so vast. I personally don't understand them, but it's more than a thousand trillion cubic feet of natural gas proven to be there. 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, 90 billion barrels of oil.

8:19And again, we come back, as I think we will continually, to global warming and climate change. It's hard to get that stuff out in that harsh environment. But the warmer it gets, the easier it is to get to that and to the gold and to the zinc and to the nickel. So, you know, for all those reasons. And also, I do think increasingly what Jonathan referred to, the Northern Sea Route, if that's taking more than a week off your passage time, then it becomes a much more important trade route. Now, the problem with that is the trade route along the Northern Sea Route hugs the Russian coastline. I'll try not to go into too much detail, but you have 200 miles of your EEZ, your exclusive economic zone, from your coastline.

9:05Some of the routes through the narrow straits near the Russian coastline are well within that. And the Russians are beginning to tell everybody, that's our seas, our areas, you need to ask us. And the Americans and others are saying international waters, international trade routes, we don't need to ask you. So if and when Russia decides to make a thing about that, they will fall back on those grounds. So you put the whole thing together, the trade, the minerals, the oil, the geo-strategic advantages, and it's warming up. It's warming up, as you're implying there from your tone, Tim, of course, in more than one way.

9:49And another way is what Russia is doing in its part of the Arctic, which has led to the Western Military Alliance, NATO, to say there's a real security threat building in the Arctic. Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov vowed that Moscow would defend its interest in the Arctic, both in diplomatic and military terms. As one can expect from a defensive alliance, NATO will also defend its interest in this region. And the High North is important for the whole alliance. We have a responsibility to protect all our allies, including the seven here in the Arctic. And we want to uphold the international rules-based order, which includes freedom of navigation.

10:41So Jonathan, what signs have there been in recent years that Russia has been trying to expand its dominance? Well, I think you have to, in military terms, you have to realise how strategically important the Arctic region is to Russia. And that's mainly because their strategic nuclear bomber fleet, their submarine fleet, Their ballistic missile submarine fleet is based in the Kola Peninsula right there at the top of the Barents Sea. That is the submarine base they will use for patrols into the UIC gap. That's the gap between Greenland, Iceland and the UK. Very important to go into the Atlantic there for the Russians.

11:20And obviously tensions have increased there. So, for example, you know, a couple of years ago, we had the chief of the defence staff here in the UK saying that Russian submarine activity. a few years ago had increased tenfold. So it's an important part of the world for Russia, not just for its strategic fleet, but also for its weapons testing. It's tested its hypersonic missiles up in the Arctic. It's got a number of nuclear facilities up there, and it has expanded its military presence. Now, clearly, that expansion was happening at a greater pace before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, after 2014, but before the full-scale invasion.

11:59And they have, for example, at least three major bases, 13 airfields, radar stations, border outposts right across that coast. And, you know, the plan was to increase that military presence. Now, given what's happened recently with the fact that NATO has been expanded with Finland and Sweden joining, And that's one of the reasons why Putin, not the only reason, but one of the reasons why Putin went to war, because he didn't want Ukraine to be a member of NATO. When he sees expansion of the NATO alliance up into the north, you've got to ask the question, you know, the likelihood that he'll be just as concerned.

12:41And that's, I think, the reason why people are worried. And that is why you've seen both increased Russian military presence and also increased activity by NATO countries too. When you mentioned about Sweden and Finland coming in, when you look at the map, there's Norway right to their left. And because those two have joined, Norway is now building supply lines out of Norway, across Sweden, into Finland. And what's next? Murmansk in Russia, the Kola Peninsula, where their key, key defence, including their nuclear defences. And so not justifying anything, but I just really wanted to back up what Jonathan says.

13:19You have to understand why they suddenly feel very nervous about this. I found it very interesting traveling to Arctic countries, Finland, Sweden and Norway as well. The changing of attitude and the idea, particularly with Russia's neighbors, Finland and Norway, was manage the relationship with Russia. Don't antagonize Russia. However, the full scale invasion of Ukraine really has changed these relationships, you know, in the Arctic and sort of in the Western in general, isn't it? It's not a small thing for Finland and Sweden to join NATO. It's massive for those countries. It is. You're absolutely right.

14:01And, you know, before Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, I would go on exercises, military exercises up to the Arctic region. The British go there, the American Marines go there. They regularly hold what they call cold response, a NATO exercise. And you would not be able to get anybody to say the word Russia. They would all talk about, you know, if there is a threat to this region, we will be ready to respond. And then you'd ask, well, who's that threat? And they would not. They'd always try to avoid mentioning Russia. You go now, you go after the full scale invasion. It is Russia that's the threat there.

14:35That is why they're there. And that's why they're on exercise. There is this question, isn't there, about it's chicken and egg. Is it NATO's expansion that makes Russia feel defensive? Is it Russia's expanding of its military recommissioning old Cold War bases, for example, that's making the West feel that it needs to up its game? And we heard Canada's Defence Minister Bill Blair speaking to the BBC's hard talk programme in May. We understand that in order to actually keep the peace in the Arctic, we have to be strong in the Arctic. It's one of the reasons I've turned our national defence policy strongly towards that responsibility.

15:14And we're going to work very closely in collaboration, obviously for the continental defence with the United States, but for the Arctic defence with all of our NATO allies. I think it's a shared responsibility. And when we are collaborative and we work together, I think we can be strong and we can deter that ever becoming a theatre of conflict. Jonathan, how much of a change is that? Because, you know, on top of that, Russia will be watching Finland and Sweden, which, as we've said, has joined NATO, merging their air forces with Norway as well. I mean, it's a real regional bristling, isn't it?

15:46Yeah. And I've spoken to some of the pilots, the Norwegian pilots who fly up towards the Barents Sea. And, you know, they regularly come into interactions with the Russians. It hasn't escalated, thankfully, but, you know, that is how tensions can get out of control if somebody takes action, military action, in other words, does something that they shouldn't do. And then you've got to look at the rhetoric from the Russians as well. And, you know, Russian rhetoric is not generally as conciliatory as Western rhetoric that you've just mentioned there. For example, Lavrov, the foreign minister, has said it's absolutely clear to everyone that this is our territory when he's talking about the Northern Sea route.

16:32I heard from former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said, given NATO's desire to build up military potential near the Russian borders, retaliatory measures are required to create an appropriate grouping of troops in northwest Russia. So, you know, the rhetoric is heating up. I would caveat everything that even though, yes, there are tensions there and those tensions in the future could cause something that neither side wanted. And I don't think either side want to see conflict in that area at the moment. But Russia's military focus has been on Ukraine and that, you know, some of its plans to expand its military presence in the north has had to be constrained because of what's going on in Ukraine.

17:18So I don't sense any immediate threat when you go up there. You know, NATO exercising, they're clearly worried, but you do not sense an immediate threat and that this is going to break out into some kind of conflict. But that is, of course, the fear in the longer term. So we've looked at what's at stake in the Arctic and rising tensions between Russia and the rest. Next, non-regional power China. What's it up to in the Arctic?

17:52If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

18:35This is The Global Story. We bring you one big international story in detail five days a week. Follow or subscribe wherever you listen. With me is Jonathan Beal and Tim Marshall. Could we now have a look at another country that might make Russia feel less alone in the Arctic, but that's making the West a bit more nervous? Tim, China has become increasingly interested in the Arctic, even though, of course, it's not an Arctic country itself. Yeah, China obviously is not in the Arctic, but China obviously is interested in the Arctic because it's seen this northern sea route. It's seen that its temporary friend, a marriage of convenience with Russia, gives it opportunities and Russia might need some assistance.

19:22And so, lo, it has observer status at the Arctic Council, but also is up there on an island called Svalbard. Now Svalbard is a Norwegian island high up in the Arctic Ocean above Norway, but it's very complicated. But there's a treaty in the 1920s in which Russia got mineral rights there as well. And so Russia has mines there. And China decided it'd be really interesting if they had a scientific base there, which they do. And tourists with very long telephoto lenses who appear to be interested in all sorts of things that are going on up there. And you can see what I'm alluded to here. Every great power does this.

20:05There is espionage going on up there. Are they about to build a massive port and see the Chinese fleet there? No. Are they taking a keen interest and leveraging their interests with Russia? Yes. And Jonathan, joint military operations. We've spoken about Western joint military operations in the Arctic. Russian and Chinese bombers flew together for the first time as well. The US military intercepted Russian and Chinese bombers in international airspace off of the coast of Alaska yesterday. Officials say two Russian and two Chinese fighter jets were detected, tracked and intercepted. The US official says that this is the first time Russian and Chinese aircraft have jointly entered the area.

20:46However, Norad notes that the activity is not seen as a threat. Yeah, and they've been doing naval exercises too in that region or close to that region. I think there is a difference in that China's interest is more mercenary, it's economic, whereas for Russia, it is both economic, but also strategic. In other words, you know, what is worrying the West at the moment, a growing relationship between China and Russia does not inevitably mean that they are in total agreement. And Russia will be concerned in some ways, as it is about NATO expansion, about Chinese expansion, but at the moment needs it.

21:24And I think there's also one other thing that is in common interest between Russia and China, and that is breaking up what are the UN laws of the sea, UNCLOS, which essentially is about free passage. And that's exactly what China is trying to do in the Indo-Pacific region. And I think the concern will be that from the Western countries is that will be what Russia and China try to do in the Arctic. So I think we've established that neither Russia nor the Western countries in the Arctic circle are looking for conflict in the Arctic, even though there's suspicion and competition. But what about unintended consequences?

22:05We often hear warnings about that in the Middle East, also in the South China Sea. What about the Arctic? I think there's always the danger that even if you haven't got direct conflict between Russia, and let's be honest, it is now NATO countries up there, that there will be what we're seeing as a result of the Ukraine war. There is sabotage. That's certainly what the West is accusing. And there is evidence of it by Russia in Western countries, whether it be at arms factories, targeting individuals in the past. And I think one of the concerns, for example, that we have seen in the Arctic region is some fibre optic cables being cut.

22:46And that certainly happened in Svalbard a few years ago. And questions as to, well, was this just natural or was this a deliberate operation by Russia? We know that Russia, for example, has underwater craft that can essentially got a big pair of scissors on them and can cut cables. And the Russians have been hovering over cables. So I think it's always the concern is that there may be some sort of hybrid, what they call hybrid, in other words, not full scale combat, but activities, military activities that could target individual countries and disrupt Western communications. and I think the other thing we haven't mentioned is you know Russia has we talked a bit about climate change earlier Russia's got lots of nuclear not just weapons but also nuclear power stations but also nuclear systems that are basically being buried underground there and there has been increase in radioactivity across the border and you know that's a worry too so So I think there's plenty to worry about.

23:49It's not just full-scale blown war, which I think is highly unlikely, but I think there's plenty to worry about below the threshold of war. Yeah, it's the interrelated things. So often there are what sometimes seem like minor incidents, but they're not minor incidents in the bigger picture of things. If you look at the South China Sea, what looks sometimes like minor incidents regarding Taiwan are not minor incidents because if one side or the other does not stand on that what looks like a minor point the bigger point then arises so you know if the Americans don't stand by Taiwan what is the point of being an ally of the United States in that part of the world there isn't any and so when we come to the Arctic what what we will see over the next few years sometimes when they people do bump up against each other is what looks like a minor incident is about something much bigger and i think the best example is probably what jonathan talked about earlier freedom of navigation operations phonops where if you are sailing through a strait through the uh the northern passage now that goes along the top of russia in order to get you through the arctic circle and down towards europe if the Russians say one day, well, actually, no, you need our permission to do it.

25:09And if the Americans or somebody else says, actually, no, we don't, then you start getting these rows. And then it, because, and it's not just about that one ship going through that one passage. It's about a bigger picture. So I returned to what I said earlier, we need the forums and we to keep the lines of communication open in order to navigate both that strait and the future. And Tim, we've spoken a lot about security concerns in the Arctic. We've only touched on climate and climate security. We need to emphasise that a bit more, don't we, the breakdown in trust and cooperation there. Do you see that changing in the near future?

25:51if when the conflict in Ukraine ends, could that be sort of a trust-building exercise that's more neutral than many other things where the West and Russia could cooperate again? It's certainly one where they need to, but I just think that the relationship between Russia and many countries in the world, mostly to their West, is broken possibly for a generation. Now, in the event that Mr. Putin falls under a bus, it's not exactly that liberal democracy will break out across Russia's 11 time zones. So, you know, you're not going to see an immediate rapprochement. But if there is a more pragmatic person that eventually emerges, one, as Mrs Thatcher famously said about Mr Gorbachev, someone we can do business with, well, yes, you can then begin to build those bridges, which is why I hope the Arctic Council does continue, because it is a very useful forum that once we enter the next phase of the relationship, which looks to me years away.

26:51But when you do, you need those structures in place, allowing you to reach across the divide, at which point, yes, you can start cooperating on climate change. You know, we do need the scientists in the various parts of the Arctic. We do need exchanges of information, including satellite information about what is going on on the climate issue. There are already villages being impacted along the Bering Sea coast, other areas having to relocate because coastlines are eroded because of warming. We're seeing animals moving. Polar bears are having to move further north. And the last thing I'd say is that what happens in the Arctic is actually a global concern because if the waters rise in the Arctic, they don't just stay there.

27:41It will contribute to rising waters in places such as Bangladesh. So the Arctic is a global issue. Tim and Jonathan, thank you so much. Thank you very much. Thank you.

28:11later. Until then, bye-bye.