Trump warns of more US deaths in Iran war

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1:10Just the good stuff your body craves. So instead of adding to your backstock of supplements that over-promise and under-deliver, simplify your progress with just two scoops of the highest quality ingredients. Stick with your wellness goals. Go to kachava.com and use code NEWS for 15 % off. That's kachava.com and use code NEWS. K-A-C-H-A-V-A dot com code NEWS. This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Janet Jaleel and this edition is published in the early hours of Monday, the 2nd of March. The US announces its first military casualties since it began attacking Iran on Saturday.

1:54President Trump warns there could be others. Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones in response, targeting countries across the Middle East and a key oil route. The price of crude is surging as a result. The conflict has widened as the Israeli military strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Also in this podcast, the UK agrees the US can use British bases to attack Iranian missile sites. The only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire the missiles.

2:40President Trump has warned that there will likely be more American military deaths as the US and Israel continue their attacks on Iran. Three U.S. military service members were killed as Iran carried out retaliatory strikes on American military sites in neighboring Arab states. Deaths were reported across the region as airports, luxury hotels and shopping malls were also hit by Iran. Mr. Trump said the U.S.-Israeli military operation would continue until all objectives had been achieved and that it could take up to four weeks. His political opponents have labeled the actions against Iran as illegal.

3:20But on Sunday evening, the president released this video to justify them. These actions are right and they are necessary to ensure that Americans will never have to face a radical, bloodthirsty terrorist regime armed with nuclear weapons and lots of threats. For almost 50 years, these wicked extremists have been attacking the United States while chanting the slogan, Death to America or Death to Israel or both. They are the world's number one state sponsor of terror. We are the world's greatest and most powerful nation so we can do something about what they do. These intolerable threats will not continue any longer.

4:07I once again urge the Revolutionary Guard, the Iranian military, police to lay down your arms and receive full immunity or face certain death. It will be certain death. Won't be pretty. I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment, to be brave, be bold, be heroic, and take back your country. America is with you. I made a promise to you and I fulfilled that promise. The rest will be up to you, but we'll be there to help. Mr. Trump has not addressed the nation directly since the start of the war against Iran on Saturday, but has released this video message as well as another one and had several telephone interviews with journalists.

4:56Senior officials from his administration, including the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are due to make their case for the attack on Iran before Congress on Tuesday. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy spoke to CBS about Mr. Trump. Americans want him to focus on the crises here at home. Instead, he is busy getting us involved in quagmires overseas that already are becoming deadly to American soldiers. This is a disaster. It is illegal. And the president is obligated under the Constitution to come to Congress and ask for an authorization of military force. He wouldn't get that authorization if he asked for it.

5:36Congress wouldn't vote to give him the permission to do it. Our North America correspondent David Willis gave me his take on President Trump's latest comments. With each American casualty, the pressure grows on Donald Trump to bring about a quick solution to this conflict. And with so many elements of it out of his control, that leaves him in a very uncertain, some might say precarious position. A Reuters poll suggests only one in four Americans approve of this military operation. And so much depends on how quickly he can pull this off. And today, as you mentioned, he conceded it could take a month or longer to resolve the situation in the Middle East.

6:22And what's worrying his critics even more is the fact that he seems to be sending out mixed messages. One moment telling Iranians to rise up, then saying he's open to talks with the regime. And it's still not really clear what his ultimate endgame is in Iran. It is not clear, you're right, what his objectives are here. Is this about regime change or the elimination of Iran's nuclear missile program or destroying Iran's navy? We really don't know for certain, And neither does Congress, which is why we've heard growing calls in recent days for the Trump administration to explain its actions to lawmakers and to give some idea of a likely timetable and to find, of course, what constitutes an end game as far as this operation in Iran is concerned.

7:10Mr. Trump has issued two video statements, but aside from a couple of brief calls with White House reporters, he has been uncharacteristically silent. He didn't speak with reporters on his journey back to the White House on Air Force One this evening, nor on his return to Washington, D.C. And it has since emerged that administration officials, including the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have now agreed to brief members of Congress tomorrow. And the U.S. Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, who's also maintained radio silence up to now, is due to give a press conference tomorrow morning. And another figure who's been pretty silent is J.D.

7:54Vance, the U.S. Vice President. What should we read into that? Well, that's interesting because Mr Vance is one who is known to have pushed for a diplomatic solution to the crisis with Iran. One that those in Oman who were playing mediator to these talks between Iran and the United States suggested was within grasping distance before Mr Trump unleashed, along with the Israelis, this assault on Iran on Saturday. so I suspect we might not be hearing a great deal more from Mr. Vance for the time being. We'll just have to wait and see. David Willis. For the first time since the US-Israeli strikes began on Saturday, one of Iran's proxies in the region, Hezbollah, has entered the war.

8:44It fired rockets and drones at Israel, the first time it's done so since a ceasefire came into effect with Israel nearly a year and a half ago. In return, the Israeli military carried out strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and ordered residents of dozens of villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate. Lina Sinjab in Beirut told us more about the situation there. The explosions that happened in Beirut were, you know, very loud. I've counted almost like around 20 that I've heard from where I'm standing here. The explosions, the attacks, like, shook the city. Everyone woke up.

9:20big lines of civilians fleeing both south of Lebanon and southern Beirut. People are too scared, living the memories of the attacks that were launched by Israel last year to cripple Hezbollah, a war that destroyed many of the south of Beirut and southern Lebanon. The prime minister issued a statement blaming whoever was behind this is dragging the whole country into a catastrophic situation. Nina Sinjab. With more on this, here's our Middle East Bureau Chief, Joe Floto, who's in Tel Aviv. Israel's certainly been bracing itself and readying itself for this moment. It's called up around 100 ,000 reservists and some of that focus has been on the north.

10:03But if you take back a bit of context, Israel and Hezbollah and Lebanon signed a ceasefire deal about 14 months ago. In that intervening period, there's barely been a day in which Israel hasn't struck Hezbollah targets inside Lebanon, much to the annoyance of the Lebanese government and the Lebanese people. Hundreds of people have been killed in those campaigns. And when it came to this new front against Iran, well, the expectation was that a group like Hezbollah that has been backed to the tune of billions of dollars by Iran, and which is ideologically and religiously close to the Islamic Republic, would not be able to stand on the sidelines and wouldn't be able to just let this war between Iran and Israel go by without responding.

10:54And the death of the Ayatollah appears to have been the prompt here. In their statement, they say that he was unjustly martyred, unjustly killed. Interestingly, in the statement, it appears that they're trying to limit their response to this one target near Haifa. Now, the Israeli defence forces are not going to limit their response, it appears. They have for a while been asking for the opportunity to attack a wider range of targets. And indeed, in the preceding week, they have struck Lebanon several times, attacking the Beqar Valley, which is the headquarters of Hezbollah, and seeking to degrade their capacity to strike Israel.

11:37Joe Floto in Tel Aviv. President Trump has repeatedly urged people in Iran to rise up against their government despite the huge security forces it still has at its disposal. Security forces that last month did not hesitate to gun down thousands of peaceful protesters. So how likely is it that the people of Iran will once again take to the streets? BBC Persians' Batman Qalbassi is monitoring the situation there. Clearly the bombardment, especially in the city of Tehran, is having a major impact both on the military and intelligence targets of the government but also in daily life of Iranians. We've seen images of a famous hospital in northern Tehran being impacted by bombs that were dropped right next to the building and a residential area, as well as the major broadcasting corporation of the state.

12:33And so the reality of the extension of these bombings into the second day and longer, obviously, will make the life of a lot of millions of Iranians more complicated as it goes on, but also the question of how much of it will impact the forces of the government that were used just under two months ago to suppress the protesters? Or will they be targeted in the coming days? One police station in Tehran, it was famously one that was a place of attacking protesters, was burned down by one of these bombs. So that sort of juxtaposition of what the targets are and how it impacts the life of Iranians.

13:17Bauman Qalbassi. He also told us there is still very limited internet access in Iran. Many Iranians outside the country are struggling to contact their relatives, including one woman who's spoken to the BBC. We're not naming her for her own safety. She started by giving us her reaction to this weekend's attacks on Iran. My opinion about what happens in Iran right now, it's a little bit complicated. well I'm happy that Khamenei died someone that killed many people tortured a lot of people I know some people some of them my friends that they're tortured and have in prison because of his orders and I know people that lost their you know family members because of this person and to see him going down and uh you know dying finally i'm happy i'm extremely happy especially as a minority i'm even happier because um he didn't have the nicest view the most practical view when it came to minorities in iran and now he's dead and just like me my family members and everyone is happy although uh because of this regime we still don't have any internet this is weird because the last time in 12th air war they didn't turn off the internet but now they do so they can have more control over their people so they are thinking about that more than protecting their own people they think about you know killing their people and it is making me stressful I cannot talk to my family members some of my friends in Turkey helped me and this is a chaos because in some way I'm happy in the other way I'm extremely stressed out my friends here that have family members are stressed out we don't know what's going to happen to our family members we don't know the future of iran so i only wish the best um and of course any kind of invasion is not encouraged um i don't like war of course but i think this was a necessary intervention to stop the killings um although we still have some executions.

15:44I think this was necessary, but if it goes on too long, I don't think that Iran will come out in one piece. The view of one Iranian woman now living in Turkey. Still to come in this podcast... Specific intelligence came from a combination of Mossad and CIA and perhaps some of the signals intelligence elements that support them. And really, the overall campaign is a result of decades of work. An insight into the complex operation that resulted in Israel and the US assassinating Iran's supreme leader.

16:37and try to silence dissent. The sound of war has reverberated around Ukraine for three years. Dramatic geopolitical upheaval alongside threats of intimidation and imprisonment. Our Man in Moscow. Watch with a subscription to bbc.com and the BBC app. Visit bbc.com slash docs to learn more. The US and Israeli strikes and the Iranian retaliation have sent shockwaves worldwide through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business, particularly in the Gulf region. When the Asian markets opened on Monday morning, oil prices jumped more than 10 percent, not just because of the war, but because Iran has told tankers to keep away from a vital shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, with several ships in the area coming under attack.

17:32Around a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz in normal times. Our business reporter Nick Marsh in Singapore gave me this update on oil prices and stock markets. The reason for the big jump is clear. You've got the most crucial choke point for oil tankers in the world effectively becoming a no go zone overnight. The reason for this easing after that initial spike not quite as clear It could be traders just taking a breath, looking at the fact that the oil market was generally actually quite oversupplied anyway before these latest developments. Other major producers are stepping up their output.

18:10And, you know, for now, we've only got three confirmed attacks on ships. The Iranians seem to be focusing much more on the US bases, not quite as much on the oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. In terms of stock markets, yeah, they're down generally here in Asia. 90 % of this oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia, by the way. Gold is also up. That's traditionally a safe haven in times of uncertainty. But generally, we're not seeing dramatic swings because, frankly speaking, the market did know that something like this was possible. And if the sort of freezing of the shipping going through the Strait of Hormuz continues, what would that mean for the global economy?

18:52The longer it goes on, the more significant it is. The Strait of Hormuz is very, very important. It's this narrow stretch of sea just south of Iran, north of Oman and the UAE. As you say, one in every five barrels of oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Now, for now, there's no formal blockade preventing tankers from passing through this choke point. But Iran's repeatedly warned vessels not to pass through. Shipping companies understandably just don't want to take the risk. We've seen attacks in the past, seen a few attacks, obviously, this time round. In the short term, if you're wondering about things like the price of petrol or your energy bills, that's not going to change.

19:33But even if other countries do start producing lots more oil, you know, to mitigate this, if this situation continues and this crucial route remains impassable for several days, weeks, maybe, that oil can't go anywhere anyway. And that really would have an impact on prices and the whole world economy. It just really depends how long this goes on for. There's also been major travel disruption in the Middle East. Yeah, absolutely. So Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dubai, those three massive connecting travel hubs all closing their airspace. That means you've got thousands and thousands of people stranded. Governments around the world are going to look at how to get them out.

20:14Again, depends on how long this goes on for. Nick Marsh. In a joint statement, the UK, France and Germany have accused Iran of carrying out indiscriminate and disproportionate strikes on their allies in the Middle East. The leaders of the three European nations say they'll work with the US to stop Iran's revenge attacks, which also threaten their citizens and military personnel in the region. As part of that effort, the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who had refused to let the US use British military bases for its attacks on Iran, has said he will now allow America to use them, but only for defensive strikes against Iranian missiles, a move he says is in line with international law.

20:56Our decision that the UK would not be involved with the strikes on Iran was deliberate, not least because we believe that the best way forward for the region and for the world is a negotiated settlement, one in which Iran agrees to give up any aspirations to develop a nuclear weapon. But the only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source. The United States has requested permission to use British bases for that specific and limited defensive purpose. I asked our political correspondent, Rob Watson, whether this marked a significant shift given Britain's earlier refusal to allow the US to use its bases for strikes.

21:45Yes, it is a significant shift. I mean, up until now, the British position has been to really try and distance itself from the operation, but of course, without criticising it. I guess the British government would say that this was an evolution in policy rather than a screeching U-turn, as some will describe it, and will argue, as Sir Keir Starmer has done in a video that is Essentially, it's responding to events on the ground, and in particular what he called a scorched earth policy by the Iranian regime. In other words, that missile attacks in the region threaten British civilians, he said, but also threatens UK allies, UK interests, and therefore in what he called an act of collective self-defence, the US would be allowed to use UK bases for this very specific and limited purpose of targeting missile launchers in Iran.

22:40Do we know which bases are likely to be used? We do. We think there's going to be a base in England called Fairford and we think there's also going to be the base at San Diego Garcia, which of course has been in the news because Britain has been trying to arrange a deal with Mauritius. to have a long-term lease on that base, which is seen as absolutely vital. It's in the middle of the Indian Ocean and is currently used by the US and the UK. And Keir Starmer, very keen to stress that these bases are only going to be used for defensive operations, not any attacks on Iranian interests, because he says the UK has learnt the lessons from the Iraq war more than 20 years ago.

23:21Yes, and this is Sakhir Starmer being well aware of the scepticism amongst many voters about, number one, the UK's military partnership with the US, and particularly anything involving regime change and attempts to introduce democracy, whether in the Middle East or anywhere else. So this is very much a nod to that. And certainly there is quite clearly a divide in the UK, and we're seeing that playing out over the last 24 hours, with those on the left broadly very critical of the US and Israeli action against Iran, and those more on the centre and right saying that Britain's position of sort of trying to sit on the fence is pretty reprehensible, and that they should get behind what the UK should get behind what Israel and the United States are attempting to do.

24:08So absolutely a very, very divisive issue in this country. Rob Watson. And just hours after this announcement, the British Defence Ministry said an Air Force base in Cyprus was targeted by a suspected drone strike. No casualties were reported. More details are emerging about how, months after their 12-day war with Iran, Israel and the US were able to assassinate the Ayatollah and around 40 other senior Iranian figures. Former CIA Director General David Petraeus told the BBC that it was a culmination of many years of painstaking intelligence operations. The specific intelligence this time, I suspect, came from a combination of Mossad and CIA and perhaps some of the signals intelligence elements that support them as well.

24:59And really, the overall campaign is a result of decades of work. In fact, when I was the Central Command commander back in 2009, We developed the plan to destroy the Iran nuclear program, many features of which are part of this campaign, although obviously the 12-day air campaign used some as well. Our security analyst, Gordon Carrera, said timing was crucial. It does look like this was a moment, a window of opportunity that the US and Israel store because they got this intelligence on the whereabouts of the Supreme Leader and knew where some of the other senior leadership figures were. And that explains really that unusual fact of a strike effectively mid-morning, about 9.45 Iranian time on Saturday morning, rather than the night-time strike for surprise that you'd normally get.

25:47Because they had this advance notice of where the Supreme Leader would be, which appears by some reports have come from the CIA and built off this long period of trying to track and understand movements. Effectively, then, they decided to act on and move a plan into place that they already had to launch the whole campaign based on that initial leadership strike. We know it would have to be there early because it's going to take a couple of hours for the jets to get from Israel to Tehran or to be in striking distance of Tehran, roughly 90 minutes to two hours. And you need advance warning to make the decision and to put all the other pieces in place to launch the campaign.

26:21So it's no good knowing where the Supreme Leader is now. You need to know where he's going to be in a few hours' time. And that's clearly something they had, and knowledge of other leadership figures at the same time. What does it say about the intelligence penetration? It's massive. I mean, we know that even from last summer's 12-day war in Operation Midnight Hammer, when they took out the Iranian nuclear programme, that they'd been able to identify specific scientists, know where they were, and target them. And that level of penetration of the Iranian system has been enormous. And some of the reports are they're inside the telecom system, they're inside the mobile phone networks, they know who the bodyguards of people are and then are able to watch them, understand their movements and work out where they might be.

27:03I mean, what is striking is that, of course, Iran saw that last summer and has not been able to close up the vulnerabilities. And they saw it with Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas, who was killed in an IRGC compound. Exactly. And they saw it a few years ago with Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was the head of the Iranian nuclear programme, who was taken out on a drive. So they've known for a long time that their top figures are being tracked and they've not been able to deal with that. Now, whether they've failed to close the gaps or whether the US and Israel have been able to find new ways in, new methods, but a lot of this, and you can see some hints from Donald Trump's social media post, involves tracking.

27:39It's likely to be a combination of maybe some human sources, networks in there, but also the ability to do things like track phones, associate with people and get inside the system. Gordon Carrera talking to Christian Fraser. And that's all from us for now. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk. This edition of the Global News Podcast was mixed by Daniel Fox. The producers were Chantal Hartle and Siobhan Leahy. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Janet Jalil. Until next time, goodbye.

28:21The BBC's Russia editor. In Our Man in Moscow, I'll show you what it's like being a news correspondent in Russia as the Russian authorities wage war on Ukraine and try to silence dissent. The sound of war has reverberated around Ukraine for three years. Dramatic geopolitical upheaval alongside threats of intimidation and imprisonment. Our Man in Moscow. Watch with a subscription to BBC.com and the BBC app. Visit bbc.com slash docs to learn more. Thank you.