Is Amazon's Drone Delivery Finally Ready for Prime Time?

20 Dec 2024 · 1 h 3 min

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Hard Fork Podcast Episode Notes

Episode Title

Is Amazon's Drone Delivery Finally Ready for Prime Time?

Overview

In this episode, hosts Kevin Roose and Casey Newton explore Amazon's latest drone delivery service, Prime Air, in a field trip to Phoenix, Arizona. They engage with David Carbon, the Vice President and General Manager of Amazon Prime Air, and observe the process of drone delivery firsthand.

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Key Topics Discussed

  1. Setting the Stage
  2. Location: Phoenix, Arizona, chosen for its favorable weather and testing opportunities for tech innovations.
  3. Context: Amazon's drone delivery concept has been in development for over a decade, with prior tests conducted in California and Texas.
  1. Amazon Prime Air Overview
  2. Current Capabilities: Amazon aims to deliver items within 60 minutes using drones.
  3. Delivery Mechanism: Items are packed in specialized boxes designed for drone transport, equipped with a cushioned base to protect contents during drop.
  1. Facility Tour
  2. The Paddock: The area where drone deliveries are processed.
  3. Drone Specifications:
  4. Size: Comparable to a Labrador Retriever.
  5. Weight: Approximately 80 pounds.
  6. Delivery Range: About 8 miles (11 kilometers).
  7. Safety Features: Equipped with redundant systems to ensure safe operation.
  1. Observations on Drone Operations
  2. Takeoff and Delivery: Drones do not land but drop packages from a height, which could raise concerns about safety and noise.
  3. Public Perception: Initial excitement about the drone delivery service contrasts with public apprehension, especially following drone sightings in New Jersey that led to widespread concern.
  1. Challenges and Concerns
  2. Public Acceptance: Hosts and guest discussed the potential negative public reaction to drones in neighborhoods, likening it to the introduction of other disruptive technologies.
  3. Safety Regulations: Emphasis on compliance with FAA regulations and the importance of public safety in drone operations.
  1. Future Aspirations
  2. Expansion Plans: Amazon aims to scale up delivery capabilities significantly, projecting the ability to deliver 500 million packages per year by 2029.
  3. Environmental Impact: Discussion on the environmental considerations of drone operations and Amazon's commitment to sustainability.
  1. Conclusion and Key Takeaways
  2. Community Engagement: The episode showcases the need for educating the public about drone deliveries and addressing concerns proactively.
  3. Vision for the Future: Amazon is committed to developing drone technology that integrates seamlessly into everyday life while maintaining a focus on safety and efficiency.

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Key Quotes

  • David Carbon on Public Concerns: "Our job in the commercial drone delivery industry is not to be a nuisance."
  • On Delivery Efficiency: "If you think about 10 minutes back and forth doing 21 cycles off those two pads, there's the magic right there."

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Additional Notes

  • The episode concludes with a humorous carol, reflective of the show's playful nature and engagement with listeners during the holiday season.

Sign Off

  • Listeners are encouraged to provide feedback and engage with the podcast through email or social media platforms.

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This markdown file summarizes the key points from the podcast episode, highlighting the main discussions, challenges, and future aspirations of Amazon's drone delivery service.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:03All right. Well, here we go, Kevin. Casey, where are we? We are here in beautiful Phoenix, Arizona, in a part of town that is known as by the airport. And it's got a lot of really amazing things, such as a Marriott and some office buildings. Believe it or not, Kevin, a younger version of me lived just a few miles away. You were in Arizona. I was sort of cutting my teeth, as they say, practicing the trade of journalism at the Arizona Republic. And then after I did it for six and a half years, I was allowed to leave. And so I did. I also feel like Phoenix has become the kind of testing ground for a lot of our great technology companies.

0:58You know, like Waymos, they were in Phoenix before they were in a lot of places. These drones we're about to see are here. Because it has good weather year-round. It's hot and dry. Hot and dry. Which turns out to be a good recipe for testing new technology. Exactly. And maybe they're a little more loose about stuff like regulation. Oh, no. They are a lot more loose about regulation. I knew it was time to leave Phoenix when I went into a coffee shop. And I went to order coffee. And there was just a guy sitting, like, reading with his gun on the table. And I thought, there's no call for that, sir.

1:36He really said, if you touch my Java. Yeah, he really said, don't talk to me before I have my coffee.

1:48I'm Kevin Roos, a tech columnist at the New York Times. I'm Casey Noon from Platform. And this is Hard Fork. This week, we're in Arizona to test out Amazon Prime Air, the company's initiative to deliver items to your door in 60 minutes or less, ya flying drone.

2:15All right, Casey, we are here in Phoenix. What are we doing here? Well, today we have been invited to sample Amazon's latest and possibly craziest way of getting goods to customers, drones. And the idea of using drones to deliver packages in the air is not a new one. Amazon first released at least the concept of a drone delivery program more than a decade ago. And since then, the company has tested drone delivery service in Lockford, California, and they also offer a version of it in College Station, Texas. But this new program here in the West Valley, Phoenix metro area of Arizona is the next major step for Amazon to prove that this service can work at scale.

2:55So the company invited us to check it out. We said yes. And then all hell broke loose on East Coast as seemingly everyone who looked out the window in New Jersey saw a swarm of drones. Yes. And we won't spoil it, but let's just say we got to the bottom of whether these drones belong to Amazon or not. Yeah, we got a conclusive answer on that one. And we also learned a lot more about Amazon's drone program, their aspirations for it, why it's taking so long to get these things up into the sky. And we actually got to see a delivery ourselves. Yeah. And I mean, look, if you're listening to this and you have concerns about a bunch of drones becoming the default way that Amazon delivers goods, so do we.

3:36This was one of the reasons why we wanted to actually come down to the facility, talk to the people who run it, because that's not obviously a good idea to us. And so we wanted to put some of those questions to them. At the same time, I will admit it is cool to watch things fly and take off and land. And that is another reason why we wanted to do this. Yes. So let's go over to the Amazon facility and see how these things are delivering packages.

4:06All right. So we are here at an Amazon facility. This is SAZ2 outside of Phoenix. And we're here with David Carbon. He is the vice president and general manager of Amazon Prime Air. Did I get your title correct you did you're one of the first thank you okay um and we're gonna see their new drone operation uh and we're in the middle of this facility which is huge but apparently very small by amazon standards uh where things are moving around and being packed and shipped off to people maybe for the holidays casey you look great in your safety vest thank you thank you as do you as do all of us really yeah um yeah well let's hear more let's go see some stuff how It works, yeah.

4:47Now, the part of the facility that handles the drone deliveries, do you call that the drone zone? That's very good. We should have, had we thought about it. But now we call it the PADIC. Okay. The PADIC. The PADIC. And that's at the other end of this facility. Well, that's not as catchy as the drone zone. So if you want to take that name, it's free. I'll give it to you without a royalty. It's not. It's not as catchy. We're too far into it now to change this. So we're sticking with it. Okay, well, call me next time when you're naming something. I will. I will. It is very good. Okay, all right. So you're doing these drone deliveries now, but you're processing them out of a facility that also processes deliveries that go out on vans the traditional way.

5:26When an order comes in that's going to be sent to a customer on a drone, does it go through the same process up until the very end, or does it sort of get put off into a separate process as soon as the thing comes into the warehouse? It pretty well follows the same process to the point that it becomes a prime air package. And we'll walk you through that. But the only difference when we get to the end is rather than then put your order into a bag or into an envelope, they put it into a prime air box, which we use to put inside the drone, and the drone then delivers to the house, which you folks will see today.

6:04Cool. All right, let's take the tour. Okay. So these are picking stations. So we're looking at some employees sort of picking and packing various envelopes and boxes. They're putting it onto a conveyor belt. The conveyor belt's taking it up and away. So this is the special drone box. This is a special drone box. To the neck and I, it looks like an ordinary box. It's got a hidden floor, right? So you'd think there's probably about, you know. Oh, so it's got some padding in there. Yeah, so that basically acts what we call as a trampoline. It's got some give in it. And every delivery goes in this box, whether it's a tube of toothpaste or something that might take up the whole box.

6:45So here's an order. It's just come in, and it's going into one of the special drone boxes. That has the cushion at the bottom. Yes. So his item was picked from behind. He's now going to pack it. This is like a super small item that's going into a fairly large box. That's why I'd like to go and ship in own container. It looked like it might have been like a tube of lipstick or something. I couldn't tell, but it was like... It was probably a gift card, I think. Oh, it was a gift card? I could be wrong. Could be. So now what happens is the package goes to what we call a water spider. A water spider?

7:22Yeah, a water spider is manufacturing operations term for somebody that takes a package from one point to the next. So what we're going to do, we're going to walk the package down the path it would take to get to the paddock. So we shouldn't dilly-dally because somebody's waiting. Yeah, let's go. Let's go, people.

7:42Okay, so we are here at the paddock. David, what happens when a box gets out of the warehouse and comes over to this facility? This is the official handover. There should be music when this happens. This is the official handover from the Sub-Same Day Center. That's now a package given to the drone airport. And then they'll put it in the drone and send it on its way. So these are the new version of the Amazon drones. These are the MK30s, right? MK30 Block 10. They're larger than I thought they were. They're like the size of, like, you know, a Labrador retriever or something. Yeah, I've never heard them described as that.

8:23Maybe a little bigger. I don't know. Yeah, for the listener, it's probably about the size of a Labrador. But if you think about it, it's probably three and a half feet as fuselage. And everything else is control surface. So an upper and a lower control wing. And then six motors around it. The front part is systems, like cameras forward-facing, two on the outside, two looking down. And then you've got your battery on the top. You've got your computer underneath. And everything else is empty space for a package. Yeah, let's go see a takeoff. I want to see this Labrador go. So now, go stay within the green line.

8:57Stay within the green line. No funny business. So we're seeing one of these big MK-30 drones. It's like on the sort of like launch pad. It's got a, we're in sort of, you know, a section of a parking lot that's been sort of fenced off. This is the airport. We're in the airport. We're in the airport, yes. And we are watching. It's a federally regulated. Takeoff. Airport. Yeah. Essentially. And, yeah, it's sort of pointed upright, and it's going to take off vertically. It's blue and white. It has an Amazon logo on the tail. If you were picturing, like, a drone like you would get your child for Christmas, this is not that.

9:37It is much larger. Yeah, this, this, uh, how much do these things weigh? 80 pounds. 80 pounds. Just on the 80 pounds. Like a Labrador. Yeah. I have Labradors about 80 pounds. Yeah. So now we're hot. Right, so watch this. Okay. It'll run through a sequence now. You'll see those motors spin. Okay, it's powering up. It says I'm good. Motors have just lightly spun. Now they spin. 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. My little gift card.

10:23Have a good trip. So if you think about it, you only hear it for about a minute at either end. And then it's gone. Yeah, it's like a temporary very loud swarm of bees. It's not very loud. It's not very loud at all. If I'm taking a nap and one of these things flies over me. You won't hear it inside. You don't think? I guarantee it. No way. But if I'm out on the hammock, I'm waking up. The hammock. If you've got the benefit of having a hammock, right? But you can't hear that. You can see it. You can't hear it. Yeah. Yeah, now I can't. What is the range of these things? How far away can they go? 11 kilometers, 12 kilometers ultimately.

11:00I'm American. You're going to have to put that in miles. Like eight miles. Yeah. Eight miles. Have you ever lost one? No. Did you just come back? No. Well, I mean, we treat them well. We put them on power. We've got no reason not to come back. And so we have two launch pads, three landing pads, so we can deconflict and cycle. I see. Oh yeah, this is one coming back. This is one coming back. So we can run both these pads at the same time. So what the drone's doing is stopping, it's checking in its conformance volume that nothing is obscuring its path, and it's clear to land, and it'll come down and it'll land on the pad.

11:46Fully redundant safety system, so there's no single points of safety critical failure. Is an operator landing this or it is? No, it's almost on this.

11:59Now, I have to say, it's quite loud when it's coming down and taking off. I have to disagree. Yeah, I mean, that just seems like if that's flying through your neighborhood, you're going to notice. Let's take you where we're going today, where you'll have general aviation, helicopters, Cessnas, and golf carts. and then let's revisit your idea. Okay, okay. Because I think this thing's 40 % quieter than the previous drone. And we're in the 70s from decibel rating. And if you listen to the acoustics of the drone, it's pretty soothing, right? If you think about noise, like a buzz, a mosquito buzzing is a pain, right?

12:44But that doesn't mean decibels are high, right? it's the type of sound, right? So we work really hard on the type of sound of the drone to bring it into modulation that people can actually appreciate rather than think. Maybe you should put some Christmas music on the things, like have them sing a little ice cream. That would cause you to come out of your affluent hammock. Or the Wicked soundtrack. People love Wicked. You can just play the Wicked soundtrack on the Wicked. My wife fortunately just went and watched it without me, so I feel very good. I'm not a musical guy, but um like to put in perspective your idea of it's loud we're about what 12 feet away from where it's taking off yeah i mean if i were next if i were this close to a normal plane i would have to be wearing air protection yeah yeah i mean i think you know if if one or two of these landed in your neighborhood during the day i don't think you would really notice or mind i think if this becomes the dominant way that people get their amazon deliveries it might be more of a shame It'll never be the dominant way.

13:42No, no way. And ultimately, we'll never do much more than 10 % of what people are going to order anyway because of what we can take. This is just another option to get people what they need really quickly. Well, David, thank you for the tour of your, what do you call this, the launch pad? Paddock. Paddock. Paddock, yeah. And not to be confused with haddock, which is a type of fish. No, it's not a haddock, it's not a fish. But you can order Haddock through Prime Air if you go to the right place, I think. I haven't checked that. I'm pretty sure we don't do fresh fish. No groceries yet? Okay, no groceries.

14:14We're not dropping fish from the sky. Stay tuned for maybe a future announcement. That would be messy as well. That would be messy. But now we get to go do a drone order of our own. Yep. Is that right? Yep. We're going to go to a local property. Yep. And we're going to order. And seeing is believing, right? This is the key. When you go to someone's house and you see what a regular backyard looks like or a regular front yard, because we're delivering to empty space, you see the dynamic nature of an environment. And that's when you really see the genius. Like this, at the end of the day, is a choreographed paddock, right?

14:46This is the way it's meant to run. When you see what's happening in someone's house, that's cool. Yes. Cool. Let's go see that when we come back.

15:17All right. So after our tour of the Amazon facility, Kevin and I, along with our producers, Rachel and Ryan, drove about 12 minutes to a nearby house that Amazon had rented to test drone deliveries. The house was in a suburban neighborhood, lots of neatly laid out homes with similar size front and back yards. It had a pool and it jutted up against a golf course, which wound up being kind of funny. So we sat down at a table there with David, who, as a reminder, oversees all aspects of the Prime Air program, not just here in Arizona, but all over the world.

15:54I would like to try placing an order with Prime Air and seeing it come to this place where we are. We're in like a rented house in the suburbs of Phoenix. Can we place an order and then it'll come? Let's place an order. Okay, so Casey, I went through the product list. So you all have like something like, how many different types of items can be delivered by drone today? Around 60 ,000. $60 ,000. Okay, so I didn't go through all$60 ,000, but I did pick a few out of the list that I wanted to get your take on. Yeah, some gems. Some gems. So some of the items that we can order in an hour or less are a cheese grater, a copy of the children's book, Good Night, Good Night construction site.

16:34That was potentially for my kid. I know he would love that. There's something called Brazilian bum bum cream that we can order. That's for two bums at the same time? Exactly. A copy of the U.S. Constitution. Every house needs one. Or dental floss. I do actually have something stuck in my teeth right now. I didn't want to bring it up, actually. Yeah. So which of those sounds best to you? I mean, I think, to me, it's somewhere between the bum bum cream and the U.S. Constitution. Where are you leaning? I think we should get the bum bum cream, just because I don't even know what that is. I don't know what it is either.

17:04Well, you ditched your child very quickly. He's got enough books. The holidays are coming up. He's going to be getting enough stuff. Okay. so we can get uh yeah brazilian bum bum cream by sold a janeiro it's visibly firming cream i don't know it's it will firm us it will firm us um took a very dark turn very quickly well you sell it so you're buying it we're just we're just perusing the okay so now i go to the cart and i go to checkout and just so people know how much is the bum bum cream it's 24 Okay. All right. What are they putting that cream? So the drone delivery, it says for one item is$9.99.

17:43That's just a charge that you tack on. Okay, so I'm going to say within. Oh, and then it wants me to confirm. It shows me like a little satellite picture here of the house. So it's basically, it's making sure that you know where in your house it's going to drop. Yeah, so this is going to drop off in the backyard by the pool. And it says, selected area must be kept clear of people, pets, and objects. so I will continue. I will use this delivery area. Oh, so that's it. So if you had a dog, you'd want to bring the dog inside while you were getting the delivery? Yeah, you want to get it out of the way of the delivery area.

18:15But what you're doing now happens the first time. I see. Like you would any other order. So it's the first time you're doing it. When you do it, if we order the next package, which presumably will be the Constitution. That's right. Which is very patriotic of us. That's the right thing to do. And you wouldn't have to go through this again unless you wanted to change that delivery location, of which in some properties you'll get up to three choices. In this, it's pretty tight outside. It's a tight environment with the pool and the trubs and the golf course behind us and that sort of stuff. Do you always try to deliver in the backyard or do you do the front yard as well?

18:51We don't care. Okay. As long as it's got the available space, we'll deliver it. Got it. Okay, so it looks like a pretty standard Amazon checkout process except for this sort of delivery area thing. And then I'm going to go ahead and place that order. And then it says by 2.16 p.m. today, which is in exactly one hour, we are predicted to get a delivery by drone. So while we wait for our drone delivery to show up, David, we do have some more questions for you. I want to start by asking about different drones, the ones that are currently flying over New Jersey. People are very upset about this. There's a lot of people who are going outside and taking photos of them and posting them on social media.

19:32This has become like a big national news story. Are those your drones? Are those Amazon drones? They are absolutely not Amazon drones. All right. Period. Okay. We can rule that one out. We've moved that story forward, Kevin. It's cutting edge journalism. Yeah. Not us. But I do want to ask you about this, not because I think you have any special knowledge or insight about these particular drones, but because I think it's the reaction that people are having. I'm wondering if you watch that as someone who wants to take commercial delivery drones mainstream and says, oh, this might actually be challenging.

20:07People's reaction when they see drones flying above them in the sky, at least if people in New Jersey are typical, is not, oh, this is great. Let's invite them to come to our neighborhood. It's get this thing out of my face. Get this thing out of the sky. People don't like nuisance. Yeah. Right? So we would have the same reaction. It was like 500 motorcycles at the front of your house. you'd have the same reaction. And so, you know, we've been purposeful about integrating into airspace, integrating into aerospace fundamentals in order that we're like everybody else that legitimately flies or legitimately does commercial delivery or legitimately moves a passenger or package.

20:47And that's the key. It's, you know, none of us want to be messed around with at our house, right and particularly when you have no control over it um so you know whoever's doing it stop it um and you know like aerospace regulation is it's the law yeah i guess the question i have is like people from a distance of a couple hundred feet up in the sky you can't tell if some a drone is up there delivering packages or if it's part of some you know surveillance operation it's it seems like it's scary to people. So how do you change the culture where when people see something flying in the air above them, their first thought is not, oh no, I'm under attack.

21:28It's, oh, here's my Amazon package. Yeah. I don't know that I would categorize people's first thought when they see something in the air, I'm under attack. Not in this country, at least. I mean, I heard people on the news talking about wanting to shoot these things out of the air. They're New Yorkers. Look, I grew up under a flight. I'm probably the wrong guy to ask. You know, my dad worked for Qantas, I worked, you know, I've been involved with aviation or been exposed to it all my life. I grew up under a flight path about five miles from an airport. So to me, seeing things in the sky is still, holy cow, how does something like that fly?

22:02People don't want to be bothered. And if they're bothered, they're upset. And if they're upset, they're vocal. And our job in the commercial drone delivery industry is not to be a nuisance. So let's go back in time to 2013, when Jeff Bezos originally unveiled the vision of Prime Air. He did a big segment on 60 Minutes, and he framed this as a huge disruption that was coming to the world of package delivery. And I took him to be saying essentially that we have to build this because someone's going to build this and customers want fast delivery and we're going to be the ones to give it to them. Is that still the vision for Primera today?

22:41Yeah. I mean, our mission is to deliver a delivery capability that's capable of delivering 500 million packages a year within 30 minutes of order. That's our job. And the one thing we know is people are never going to compromise safety for speed, right? If I said to you, you know, something bad is going to happen, but I'll get you your package in 10 minutes, you're never going to order, right? So we've got this bar for safety that is an aerospace bar for safety that's assessed by the FAA. And then as delivery experience gets faster, people will shop more, right? So to me, it's an imperative. If you're going to be in e-commerce, you have to be able to get people things fast.

23:19And that's what we're here to solve in these particular types of environments. So Kevin just brought up 2013, the vision is announced. I know you guys have been doing a lot since then, but I still cannot use one of these things to get a delivery at my house in San Francisco. So what's been taking so long? It's really hard. It's like, this is not about can a drone fly, right? Wright Brothers proved things can fly. It's not about can a drone carry something. It really is about developing a technology suite to deliver packages at scale where people live around the world. And to do that, you have to fundamentally start with what's the safety target you have to have, right?

24:03And for us, that is magnitude safer than general aviation and a magnitude safer than driving to the store. And that's what we're designing up into. On top of that, Amazon's been going for 30 years, right? So you have to integrate into an existing Amazon stack that has been able to take orders. Firstly, it was a couple of days, then it was one day, then it was sub-same day in a big fulfillment network. And really, if you think about what we have to do, the fastest we normally can do anything is two hours. We have to get that package from the point of click to us at the drone fulfillment center or the paddock within 15 minutes.

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24:47Some of these facilities, you can't walk from one end to the other in 15 minutes. So let's talk about regulatory hurdles, because my understanding is that's a big piece of why this has taken so long to get these things up and running. What has been the hardest thing to get the FAA to sign off on within the U.S.? Regulation isn't the holdup. But the reality is nobody was really ready to go and execute deliveries at any form of scale in open airspace that wasn't over paddocks and fields where no one lived anyway, regardless of the FAA. And I think the industry needs to own up to that. I mean, they spend a lot of time lobbying for ignoring standards or aerospace conventions.

25:33And certainly from the minute I walked in at least, and I know this was Amazon's position anyway. we were advocating that there needed to be a policy framework, there needed to be a regulatory framework, and it needed to be steeped in aerospace practice. But you do need specific licenses and approvals, like to operate a drone outside of what's called the line of sight. That takes a special kind of certification. So there were hoops that you had to jump through, but you're saying this was not what kept the industry. You still need a drone. You still need a safe drone system of systems, right? So it's a bit like saying there's no roads but you don't have a car or there's no roads but you have this car that you built in your garage but every third time you start it up it blows up right so the bottleneck was the hardware in other words not the software hardware the integration of all of it working at how you integrate into airspace and then if you had all of that then you need a framework and um in around 2022 if i got really serious about how it handled this space and And through whether it be policy or whether it be the establishment of a section that focused on this area, we were able to work through what that policy suite looked like for this type of drone.

26:50I'm not suggesting for one minute the framework was there. Don't get me wrong. But I would argue vehemently that no one was ready. Even if it was there, no one could build into it anyway. There was some reporting by Bloomberg about some of the incidents and crashes that had happened with the drones at the Pendleton, Oregon facility, including one in 2021 where there was a drone fell out of the sky, caught on fire, and ended up sparking something like a 20-acre brush fire. What was the story there, and how confident are you that something like that isn't going to happen with these latest drones?

27:24It's tests, right? So if you test for failure, you get failure. and you test in controlled environments, right, where you can have a fire like that and you have emergency response ready to respond emergently. It makes for good news, but it doesn't make for great engineering. I would be skeptical if somebody wasn't testing something, the failure, in this mode. Now, if you've got a big commercial airplane, well, you're not flying it into the ground, right? So that was an intentional crash. That wasn't like a malfunction in the system. That particular case was a malfunction system, but it was a malfunction we were testing for.

28:01So we'd induce that malfunction. We have the luxury of not having humans in danger. And so therefore, the hardware is not so expensive that you wouldn't test it to failure. So as I said, it makes great news. But if you ever interview a technologist or an engineer that is not testing stuff to failure, I would be highly skeptical about what they're putting up around the public. Right. Tell us about, we have some sort of questions about various scenarios that we think are in people's minds when they think about a retailer like Amazon putting a bunch of drones up in the sky and delivering products.

28:38One of them is just, what do they do about the sort of tall trees and other like, you know, dense areas? How are they able to avoid those? that's a really great question um so stuff that's there is not dynamic now things like trees grow right and so we our um algorithms our sense and avoid algorithm and our perception algorithm um is trained over hundreds of thousands of data sets right we have another group um called da2 which basically stands for data collection it's a second fleet where we put our cameras on a, for want of a better word, a mule fleet, and we go and take aerial images of different environments from the ground, phone sticks and attached to helicopters and all this sort of stuff.

29:26And we use that to train our algorithm. And so that's one part of our safety layer. The other part of our safety layer is to then go and say, does that look like it's meant to look? And if it doesn't, is it safe? Third part of our safety layer, it doesn't look the way it's meant to look, and it's not within the profile that I can deliver. So therefore, I'm out of here. I imagine that another thing that people are going to be thinking when they hear about Amazon drones potentially coming to their neighborhoods is, what if they hit stuff up there? I mean, what if they collide with a plane or a bird or maybe a stationary object that's tall in the sky?

30:02Talk to us about that. Yeah, we shouldn't hit anything. We hit something, something's wrong. Someone's trying to hit us if we hit something, because we've designed the drone to sense and avoid. So it can avoid a bird. Yeah, it can avoid some birds. I mean, the bird's going to want to go straight at the drone. The bird's coming off second best. I mean, that's how it sort of works in aviation. This is a message to birds. Do not mess with the drone. Birds are unnoticed. Look, we have done everything that's humanly possible to sense and avoid what's around us and sense and avoid. We're not going to be flying into airplanes.

30:40We're not going to be flying into static objects. We're not going to be landing on things we shouldn't be landing on. The bottom line, that's part of what you designed for, right? Anyone, like if your listeners sort of know anything about aerospace design or even automotive design, right, you lay out your failure cases. You lay out what those allowances need to be. And in aerospace, we design through redundant systems. So, you know, the drone can lose a motor, can lose a prop, can lose compute, it can lose battery, and it's going to get back home. I'm curious on the sort of sensing and avoiding of it all.

31:13I know that most of the systems are automated. Do you also have a way for like a remote operator to sort of take control of a camera and say like, oh, yeah, that actually is a crane we didn't expect and do something? Or how does that work? No, an operator can't take control of the vision. In fact, that's not how it works. An operator can abort a mission. They have two options, launch and abort. and we have the same two options in a podcast by the way but go on it's not live but you know they if they see something dynamically happening that the drone isn't seeing which you know frankly is 0.0 percent or nothing that's not going to happen but but they can if they're concerned about something that's dynamically happening they can abort um the mission and abort means the thing will turn around come home right one more thing that i think we should talk about is the risk that people will try to take these things out of the air.

32:09There was a man who was arrested in Florida earlier this year for trying to shoot down a Walmart delivery drone with a pistol. It's Walmart, right? Yes. A judge recently ordered that man to pay$5 ,000 in compensation. But I think this is a fair question to ask of Amazon as it goes through this delivery drone process, because people, some number of them are just going to hate these things flying around. Some of them may try to take a shot at it. So have you had that happen? Do you plan on that happening? What are the contingency plans if that tries to happen? Are you going to be prosecuting people?

32:41Talk to us about this. We have not had that happen. Will it happen? Probably. If it does, we'll use a full force of the law. I mean, it's federally dictated airspace. So it's like shooting in an airplane. And if you're silly enough to do that, well, then you're going to jail. It's just that simple. last one of these concerns and i have to say this was actually kevin's idea and so i'm just gonna see kevin do you want to do it no do it oh you shot me a look it's a really good i hadn't thought of it so here's the idea the idea is you see an amazon drone coming in and you think aha i can take that off the lawn and resell it so is there any concern that the drones are going to inspire a new generation of porch pirates who can just watch where the drone lands and then go grab the package.

33:31You've stumped me. No, look, I'm not because unlike dropping something off at someone's front door, we're typically dropping stuff off in someone's backyard, right? So we've got that advantage. And typically if you need something in 30 minutes, and in this case, if you're in Phoenix and you've paid for it, you're going to want it at 30 minutes. You've typically standing by to get it. I mean, I know how keen you are to get the butt cream. He's very keen. It's bum-bum cream. Bum-bum cream. And he's very keen, let's just say. So, you know, we're listening out for the drone. We're waiting for it to come.

34:07Now, we're not going to hear the drone from inside, but, you know, we know it's coming. It gave us a time. So if you want something that keenly, you're going to get to it before anybody else. We have to ask about the cost. I know you're not going to answer, But I think once they – particularly if they see the video and the entire production, they're going to say, how much money is Amazon losing on these deliveries? So I know you can't answer it, but like tell me – could this possibly be profitable ever? Yeah, absolutely. How? And by the way, if you do want to tell us how much money Amazon is losing on every delivery via drone, feel free to do that.

34:44I would like to think of it as an investment. Okay. Okay. How much money is Amazon investing in every drone delivery? Look, the one thing Amazon does better than any other company in the world that I have seen in my time is we take long-term bets. And we take those long-term bets on behalf of our customers. So imagine the mocking you would have got, I'm going to sell books on the internet. And 30 years later, look what you've got, right? So this is just the very start. And our models show that at the end of the day, you know, when we say by 2029, we want to deliver 500 million deliveries, we're cost positive because you can't deliver packages indefinitely at a loss, right?

35:29But at the end of the day, right now, this is learning to scale up to where we need to be. And if you think about the flywheel, it's pretty simple, right? The more customers you can serve, the more packages you can deliver, the more locations you can operate, the cost comes down. My questions are sort of around like the density of packages. I mean, it seems to me like Amazon and every other e-commerce retailer depends on being very optimized in the fulfillment centers, in the, you know, packing the packages tightly into vans and trucks and sending them out on optimized routes. It's like sending things one at a time on a drone seems incredibly inefficient.

36:09And I just don't understand how you get to the kind of unit costs and economics that you have with something like traditional delivery if you're only able to send out one package or even a handful of packages at a time. Most people order about 1.4, 1.6 packages at a time. I'm not talking about people ordering multiple things at a time. I'm talking about like a bunch of, you know, hundreds of packages go into an Amazon van that goes door to door delivering stuff. That goes along a very optimized route. It's not doing like one trip to the warehouse, one trip to a person's house, one trip back to the warehouse like these drones are.

36:45That seems incredibly inefficient. Ten minutes. Okay. Ten minutes. And look how many people are working at the Fifth Formant Center today. When you can cycle 21 with that many people, it literally all is cycling. If you deliver one package to 12 people or you deliver 21 packages for 12 people, the cost of the package is less because you pay for the drone once, right? So do I want somebody being able to order as many packages as they can fit in that box up to five pounds? Absolutely. And that'll come by the end of one queue next year, we'll have that. Do I want you being able to order, build a basket?

37:20I'd say, look, I want all these things delivered to me by drone in the next hour. Yep, we're not there yet. But the reality is when you think about 10 minutes back and forth doing 21 cycles off those two pads, utilizing 12 drones, there's the magic right there. It's cycling. Over a longer period of time, do you hope that that drone can carry 10, 15, 20 pounds? Do you see the drone sort of making multiple stops? Not that morphology. We'll create a different morphology. You mean like a different shape of thing? Yeah, like you'd ever bet. You're going to have to use small words around Casey. I know what a morphology is.

38:00He's very good, actually. I studied morphology in college. He's morphing right now. Yeah. My grandfather was a morphologist. I'm sorry. Go ahead. We will need to look it up. We will create different shape for, you know, where we need to go. But this drone size, it is the backbone. because if you think about the way this thing is set up, it's to get into backyards or yards or spaces like the one we've got now. And there'll be some stuff we release next year which will show the utility of this drone utilizing other delivery modes for sure. So people can now get deliveries via drone if they live in the designated area.

38:42I assume you chose Phoenix because the weather is very mild here. It's, you know, there's not a lot of rain, not a lot of snow. For people who live in parts of the world where there is worse weather, should those people expect to wait longer before something like Amazon Prime Air is available in their area? Our plan is to start rolling out at scale effective next year. And this drone has been set out for where our customers are anywhere in the world. That's how we designed it. Now, we're not going to be doing icing conditions, but arguably no one's flying in icing conditions. Look what happens when it's icing at the airport.

39:15Aeroplanes are getting sprayed. It's chaos, you know, that sort of stuff. but that's what it's been designed for and by the end of 2026 we'll be doing low light deliveries nighttime deliveries you know that sort of stuff so this is just the start um and and you're right like putting a gift card in a box and shipping it somewhere that's not the end that's the beginning what about dense places places where people maybe don't have a backyard with a you know area big enough to drop a package in what about people who live in apartment buildings that's a wonderful question you should ask me midway through next year.

39:49Okay. We do deliver to apartments today. Yeah, if you have like a good enough landing pad for them. Yeah, well, it's not even a landing pad. It's a delivery location. A delivery location. Not to be pedantic, but hang on to that question next year because it will answer itself. Let's just say the delivery location has to have a certain morphology in order to be a configuration. Yeah. A certain configuration. All right. I have another efficiency question. And really, basically any time on the show we talk about any kind of physical technology, our listeners want us to ask about the environmental impact.

40:22So what can you talk about the environmental impact of making a delivery that requires a custom drone to, you know, fly maybe eight miles and back? And is there anything that you can do to kind of mitigate that impact? I love it. It's a great question because we design, you know, we got the climate pledge, right? Amazon climate page. And so we designed the drone to be recyclable. The materials will be used in a recyclable fashion. It's got a battery powered, which is not emitting anything along the way. And so really right now, you know, unless we're running an electric van, it's the most environmentally conscious way of delivering.

41:02Now, when you get into a van, a Rivian van, for instance, is carrying more packages. So it's hard for a drone that we've created to do this sort of mission to compete with that. But at the end of the day, it works backwards from the climate pledge. We're going to pause because we're going to go outside. Oh, the drone is here. The drone is here.

41:24Our drone is here and that means we got to go outside and pick it up. When we come back, we'll tell you what's in the box. What's in the box, Kevin?

41:45We've now moved to the rear morphology of the home, where we're awaiting the arrival of an Amazon drone with Kevin's bum-bum cream. It's technically our bum-bum cream. We purchased that as a joint operation. We did. So now we are in the backyard of this house. We are waiting for the Amazon drone to arrive with our package, and it's going to come flying out of the sky from some direction and it's going to drop the package, ideally, onto the lawn behind us. We're next to a golf course also and it looks like someone's in the sand trap, so sorry about that. I mean, there's a chance he could hit the drone with the ball if he shanks it to the right.

42:28Honestly, that'd be pretty impressive. Oh, here comes our drone. Look, it's just like we predicted. It came out of nowhere. Okay, wow. Okay. Here we go. All right. Hello. Okay, it's identified us.

42:49Making sure it's safe to land, I guess. Slowly descending. All right, it's coming down. Casey, go grab it. No! Wow! Ow! Okay.

43:09It did not touch down. It did not touch down. It just dropped it. I don't know why I assumed it would touch down.

43:20Thank you.

43:25You'll have to describe what to sound. Okay, so the drone just came over. It descended to a height of around 14 feet. A little compartment opened in the bottom, and then the package that we ordered dropped onto the lawn in a little cushioned box. And then the drone just elevated and flew away and it's already out of sight again. Shall we go see what's in our box? Let's go see what's in our box. Casey, this is your Christmas present from me. Oh, great. Yeah.

44:02All right.

44:08And what do you know? Our Brazilian bum bum cream. For the man who has everything. For the man who has everything. Look at that. Amazing. It's a caffeine-rich guarana extract. And in the words of Sol de Janeiro, love it, flaunt it, you've got it. That's what it says on that package. Love it, flaunt it, you've got it. Hello. You guys from Amazon? Yeah. Well. You're scared to death. I've got a lot of people. What the hell is that? What's going on? Associate you guys with New Jersey? Yeah. Yeah. A little difference. They're probably 16, 17-year-olds having fun. You guys are a lot older. These guys are from the New York Times.

44:52I'm from Amazon. Yeah. The Amazon. So what the heck? I'm Kevin. Kevin, I'm Gino. Gino, nice to meet you. Neighbor Gino. So you've seen a number of these drone. I come out one day I seen the truck and I seen all that equipment first thing that hit me well it's a Reynolds doing a you know porno here yeah yeah has that happened before not here but I have no other place a drug delivery point this is quite a series so then I went in there and I talked to a girl out in front she says yeah it's Amazon the film so I came here so I said well shit maybe I can get in the movie saying, hey, look at the old man.

45:32He'll wait for his drone. You want to use this cream. His Viagra to come in the mail. You want to use this cream. Jeno, thank you very much. Thanks, Jeno. Don't shoot the drones, please. You're a legend.

45:50Kevin, Casey, can you just recap what happened? Yeah. I'll put my clothes back on. We had just sort of picked up our drone delivery when a neighbor popped over to sort of see what the commotion was about. He apparently helps to take care of the pool. That was an Amazon drone. Yes. Yeah. Any feedback? Yep. From about 14 feet high. And if you live in this area, you can get anything that they offer within one hour. Yeah. See you guys. Thank you. So that was where the house abuts a golf course. And so a couple of golfers just stopped by. We assumed they were Hard Fork fans, but it turns out they wanted to know what the drone was.

46:33So, yeah, so we met Gino, the neighbor, who was taking care of the pool and stopped by to kind of share stories from his life and his impressions of drones. Yeah. Yeah. And then we talked to some golfers. So it's really rallying the community to say, hey, what is that thing? Yes. There do seem to be a lot of reactions ranging from, like, those golfers thought it was pretty cool. Yeah. And Gino, the neighbor, thought maybe this was something that people were a little more concerned about because of all the drones flying over New Jersey and stuff. They just didn't know what they were. So probably, as with any new technology, a range of reactions.

47:09All right. Let's go inside. Let's go inside. I'm hot.

47:17So one thing I noticed about the delivery is that these drones attract attention, right? You know, I know you said it's quieter than the previous version, but it still makes a pretty noticeable sound if you're outside and nearby. And they're visible and they fly through the air and they're somewhat novel. And I'm curious if you think that's a good introduction to the world of drone delivery for people or if you're trying to make these things a little less noticeable as they're making their way through neighborhoods dropping off packages i'm trying to make them safe right and that's what i'm trying to do um it's not you know the morphology or the configure word of the day word of the day um the configuration the drone needs to be the configuration of the drone that makes it safe and not a nuisance and we all saw what we saw right like two golfers smiling asking intrigued geno came in geno was buzzing right like he was he was happy he was telling us stories you know um but he said the neighbors had had concerns about them because of these drones flying around so i just want to say that not to say that everyone is concerned but these things fly through the air they're they're noticeable um and they do freak some people out yeah he said he said they were wondering what was going on considering what was happening on the east coast right um and so that's not that i wouldn't say geno was i mean he didn't look concerned he looked happy as a clam.

48:35But so our job is to make this normal, right? That's our job. And until it's normal, people are always rightfully skeptical of change, right? And it's just a changing delivery sequence. But when you need something in 30 minutes, you will very quickly become used to the fact that you can order from up to 60 ,000 items, 70 ,000 items, depending on the SSD, and get it within 30 minutes, right? I promise now 60 minutes, but there's no substitute for that. I mean, it probably sounds somewhat dismissive to frame it this way, but I'm wondering if maybe the main benefit to Amazon of Prime Air is the marketing effect.

49:20Because if you're a customer and you do need something in a hurry and it comes, whatever expense went into it for you, for all the turmoil of making that happen, that person is probably going to think, Like, yeah, I'm just going to use Amazon for everything. And it also strikes me that people do acclimate fairly quickly to new things. I mean, I remember when Waymos and other autonomous vehicles first started driving in the streets of San Francisco. You would stop in your tracks. People would point. People would stare. And then a couple months go by, you start seeing them more and more. And now I barely notice.

49:51The only people who stop and point are tourists because they've never seen them before. And for people who live in San Francisco, they're just sort of part of the landscape. So I can imagine something like that happening with drones too, but it does seem like we are just at the start of that process. Yeah. I mean, look, you know, for me, our job is not, we're not about the drone. That's the thing, that's the hardest thing to get people's head around. We're about 30 minute click to delivery at scale, 500 million packages by the end of 2029. If I do my job right, no one's going to care about the drone.

50:24What they're going to care about is did I get my package within 30 minutes? And if you think about it like that, my job is not the drone guy, right? Even though I've been known the drone on, but my dad joke. Honestly, I'm surprised that it wasn't one of us that made the joke first. So congratulations. I was just crossing that off my list of dad jokes here. It got cut off the script at some point in another event. I thought I should try it somewhere. But honestly, like my job is not to, my job is to deliver packages within 30 minutes. and that's what I say my job is, right? The only way we know how to do that today is in the air.

51:02Can you give us any sense of what is coming in 2025? Is there a number of cities that you're hoping to open up in or what can you tell us? Yeah, 2025, you know, there's a bunch of announcements going to come out. You know, we've got features coming on board. We've got multi-product ordering. We've got basket building and then more locations coming next year that we'll talk a little bit about. And we'll go international. We've talked about Italy and the UK, but we want to expand beyond that. Once we get our Italian certification, that opens up Europe. So, you know, this isn't – what I love about this stage of a development program, and I've been on quite a few in my career, is we're no longer gonna do, we're doing.

51:45And that's the joy of, like, when you can learn and see this sort of thing, and you see people's reactions, you feel like you're delivering something that's going to change the world, right? Beats anything else on earth. So Amazon delivers billions of packages a year. Give us a sense of what 500 million packages would represent in terms of the overall volume of Amazon. You know, it's in the single-digit percentages of what we deliver, right? And if you think about our plan, 500 million packages a year to 100 million customers from over 140 sites. It'll be more or less that varying degrees. If you do the math on that, it's 4.5 packages per year per customer.

52:35That's less than a single digit percentages, one hand percentages of what people ordered today in a year. Does that represent a scaling back of the original vision here? I mean, I'm not sure that Jeff Bezos attached specific predictions about package delivery back in 2013. Maybe he did. But my sense from watching the press that he did back then, the 60 Minutes interview and whatnot, is that he anticipated that this was sort of the next frontier in delivery and that this would, I don't know if it would eventually overtake ground delivery as the main way that people got Amazon packages, but certainly not a single digit percentage of Amazon deliveries was what he was sort of envisioning and projecting out.

53:15So do you think that Amazon's ambitions in drone deliveries have been paired back? No, they've grown from when I got here. So I can say categorically, no. And you got here in 2020. 2020. And, you know, I wrote the product roadmap to lay this out, right? So I don't think Jeff was wrong. I think Jeff was right. I mean, I think people like to look at when the announcement was made and how long it took, but no one looked at, we just saw it. Just happened, right? And, you know, I feel like Ricky Bobby. It's real. Did that just happen? Yes, it did, right? And if you think about it, you don't need everything in 30 minutes, right?

53:56That's the point of what we're all talking about, right? So it's this flip side debate where people are almost arguing against themselves, right? Do you think there's a need for it? Is there a need for it? Is it big enough? Is it not big enough? It's going to be what it's going to be. And the bottom line is no one can ever tell me speed doesn't matter, right? Now, when you're talking about an aerospace artifact, the number one item is safety. And then the next thing is speed. But I can count the last two weeks how many things I've ordered online. And if I could have got all of them in 30 minutes, I would have taken it.

54:30To me, utility and convenience is what it's all about. And if you think about this mode of transportation beyond package delivery and think about pharmacy or think about medical supplies, it's going to come because it has utility. Yeah. Well, David, thank you so much. David, I really feel like you delivered on this episode. You really left a carbon footprint. Well, you know what? I'm glad you appreciate it because everybody else is trying to cancel carbon. So I feel good about that. Hey, guys, thanks for taking the time. And that's a long day out.

55:27And one more thing before we go. We wanted to send you off into the holidays this year With a little holiday cheer

55:36Well Casey It's time to don our gay apparel And that's the apparel I wear Every day but for you it's a special occasion Yes so If you're not watching us on YouTube you won't see We have our holiday sweaters on Yours is like Santa riding on a unicorn With a sword Mine is a Darth Vader Mary Sithmas Sweater And on the whole, I have to say, my apparel way gayer than yours. It's true. But now we also have Santa hats to add to the mix. I'm going to put these on under my headphones. Okay. How do we look? Worse than usual.

56:15Now, Casey, we've started an annual tradition here on the Hard Fork podcast of doing a tech-themed Christmas carol at the end of the year. Yes, we were inspired by Ezra Klein doing the same thing over on his show. Now, I know you hate this part of our program, but I happen to love Christmas carols. And I also love writing parody lyrics to Christmas songs. And so this year, we have written a new version of Hard Forking Christmas, our song from last year. Our hit song from last year. Yes, dozens of people downloaded and listened to it and said that they loved it. So we decided to go again. you're looking at me like you absolutely hate this like you'd rather be doing anything else you know one of my fondest wishes as a boy would be that I had a beautiful singing voice but that was not on my journey you actually do have a nice singing so that's really the difference it's not so much that I don't like to sing it's that I feel self conscious about my voice oh I see well maybe they can use auto tune or some other kind of magic in the production process prayers up to the engineers for what's about to happen okay here we go let's sing the new version 2024's edition of A Hard Fork in Christmas.

57:27Before we do that, shouldn't we sort of offer some holiday wishes to our listeners? Yes. Yeah. So I guess I would just wish that all of our listeners have a wonderful holiday. We are very thankful that you listen to us each week and manually install Hard Fork on not just your phone, but all your friends' and relatives' phones. And generally just talk about Hard Fork constantly in every circumstance. It means a lot to us. We have so much fun making this show, and it's so rewarding to know that people are out there listening. And we just want to keep doing this again next year, and hopefully we'll get the chance.

58:00Yeah, fingers crossed. Yeah. Thanks, everybody. Happy holidays. Thank you. And on that note, let's hear some musical notes.

58:11On a hard fork in Christmas, my true love gave to me Some slop made by ChatGPT On a hard fork in Christmas my true love gave to me Two Waymo rides and some slop made by ChatGPT On a hard fork in Christmas my true love gave to me Three Vision Pros, two Waymo rides and some slop made by ChatGPT On a hard fork in Christmas my true love gave to me Four crypto coins Three vision pros Two Waymo rides And some slop made by ChatGPT We're doing great On a hard fork in Christmas My true love gave to me Five aura rings For sleep tracking Four crypto coins Three vision pros Two Waymo rides And some slop made by ChatGPT On a hard fork in Christmas My true love gave to me Six stupid TikToks Five aura rings Four crypto coins Three vision pros Two Waymo rides Handsome slop made by ChachiPT On a hard fork in Christmas My true love gave to me Seven neon brat memes Six stupid TikToks Five aura rings Four crypto coins Three vision pros Two AMO rides And some slop made by chat GPT On a hard fork in Christmas My true love gave to me Eight scary deep fakes Seven neon brat memes Six stupid TikToks Five aura rings Four crypto coins Three vision pros Two Waymo rides And some slop made by ChatGPT On a hard fork in Christmas My true love gave to me Nine blue sky follows Eight scary deepfakes Seven neon brat memes Six stupid TikToks Five aura rings Four crypto coins Three vision pros Two Waymo rides and some slop made by ChachiPT.

1:00:44Get it together. On a hard fork in Christmas, my true love gave to me. Ten rocks for eating. Nine blue sky follows. Eight scary deep pics. Seven neon brat names. Six stupid TikToks. Five aura rings. Four crypto coins. Three vision pros. Two Waymo rides and some slop. Almost done.

1:01:39Last one.

1:02:10Happy Holidays, everybody!

1:02:39You can watch this whole episode, and you should, on YouTube at youtube.com slash hardfork. Special thanks to Paula Schumann, Pui Wing Tam, Dalia Haddad, and Jeffrey Miranda. You can email us at hardfork at nytimes.com with your drone order.

1:03:09Thank you.

From the publisher

This week, we took a field trip to the Phoenix suburbs to see Amazon’s newest iteration of drone delivery service in action. We toured the facility where these drones are in operation, spoke with the vice president and general manager of Prime Air, David Carbon, and watched from a local backyard as our own order dropped from the sky.

Guest:

  • David Carbon, vice president and general manager of Amazon Prime Air.

We want to hear from you. Email us at hardfork@nytimes.com. Find “Hard Fork” on YouTube and TikTok.

Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

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