21. 4 Downs in Stats Town: Reviewing Team Consistency, MVP Picks, and AFC vs. NFC Playoff Chaos

0:22I'm Victoria. you. I'm Giovanna. The game's on. Welcome back to another episode of your favorite football podcast by the girls for everyone. The game today, Giovanna and I are talking some stats. We have our four downs talking about a player that is standing out some playoff projections, updated season leaders, conference check in and kind of what we expect. What's interesting this week in week 13. I think that so many people will say that this season is not what they were expecting, which I also feel like makes it one of the most fun seasons to talk about. Because in previous seasons, we were seeing maybe just like the Chiefs and the Eagles dominate over the last couple of years or back when Tom Brady was around, like just constant domination.

1:15And so I think that this little bit of chaos is creating a more interesting conversation than we've had in the last few years. So let's get into it. Going in with our first down, the Stat King, who is dominating right now statistically and on paper. And Giovanna, we have Drake May and you have a note here saying MVP candidate. Yeah, it's interesting because a lot of people were throwing out Matthew Stafford's name. There was some like other quarterbacks in the picture, but now Drake May has literally emerged as the favorite in this MVP race. Simply for the fact that the Patriots are dominating, Drake May is tied for third most games with a 75 % completion percentage and two passing touchdowns.

2:07And to put this in perspective, he's completed that in six games this season so far. And he's tied with Matt Ryan, who is a really good quarterback. In this like category of stat, Tom Brady leads the stat line and he did this with eight games in 2007. I believe that year he also was an MVP candidate and then ended up winning MVP that season as well. But to just put in perspective, Tom Brady was at eight games. Drake May is at six right now. So let's say he finishes out the season. He could be tied with Tom Brady or be better than Tom Brady, which as Drake made to say that is insane. And so that is one of the biggest reasons why he is MVP candidate.

2:51I have to also shout out Jared Goff. He did, he's at seven right now in a 2024 season. So that's pretty interesting too. But when you look at Drake May and what he's done, it's interesting too, because we talked about this a little bit with Stefan Diggs on the Patriots. He hasn't even been utilized as like the number one guy in the Patriots. It's been Kayshaun Booty and Hunter Henry and some other really good role players on that Patriots offense. And then I was listening to something earlier this morning and it was talking about how the Patriots don't have like a superstar receiver or a go-to guy.

3:23Drake Mays is kind of out there and everyone's still doing their job, but Drake Mays is kind of out there slinging the rock and winning games. So it's kind of dominating right now. Yeah, I love it. I think that this stat line is crazy to me. So it's most games with a 75 % completion percentage in one season. But it's crazy to me that six games out of like a what? It's always been like 15 to 18 game seasons that nobody's past completion is that high. So I think the stat in general, just that it's not that high is crazy. I think that Drake May is coming in and able to do that is also crazy. According to ESPN, his actual average is 74.6 % throughout all of his games.

4:12So that's like insane. He's right there. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, I think that, you know, I was talking to somebody. I don't think it was you. I was talking to somebody the other day and they were saying that they want the Patriots to lose because they don't want to hear the Drake May Tom Brady comparison anymore. Because, you know, I think that people in sports hate a team that dominates for too long. If you have more than two good seasons, people turn against you, which is what we're seeing with the Chiefs, which is what we saw with the Patriots dynasty. Anytime there's like a dynasty in sports, people hate on them because they're a dynasty.

4:56But I think that Drake May being on the Patriots just feels a little bit. it's too soon since Tom Brady retired and Tom Brady's still around too much for the Patriots to have a comeback this fast. But it is what it is, right? Like you, you can't make it up. You know, I think it's really interesting about the comparison. Unfortunately, I don't think we're going to ever have the non-comparison of Drake May and Tom Brady for two simple reasons. The fact that Drake May is almost getting close to and almost beating Tom Brady's records in some categories. And we forget Mike Rabel and his first year coaching the Patriots.

5:37Mike Rabel played with Tom Brady from 2001 to 2008. So that's already a close connection. Tom Brady, yes, he does broadcasting in the league. So he's still very much around. But when you have your head coach on the Patriots play with Tom Brady and then your quarterback is showing flashes of Tom Brady, it's hard to not, maybe comparison is too far, but it's hard to not mention Brady in the same breath when you talk about this Patriots team because of the connections that they still have. Yeah, and anybody who plays well on the Patriots these days is going to get compared to Tom Brady for the next probably 100 years.

6:13Like, until everybody who watched Tom Brady on TV is dead, like, we're going to hear the comparisons if anybody's coming in and making a big splash. Yeah, exactly. So when you say Mike Rabel played, like, played on the field or was coaching? No, they were teammates. They played together. Yeah. Crazy. And they won three Super Bowl titles together. So, yeah. Yeah, and I mean, you play with him, you watch him, you study tape of, you know, your team and what's going on in that organization, in that building. It's not that surprising. However, I do think it's a little, like, I feel like it might be a little soon.

6:56Because, like, okay, so we have this record of, like, completion percentage. like that's great. But he is only a second season quarterback. So he's avoiding like the sophomore slump by having like a breakout season. But I'm curious to see the longevity of his play. Some like general stats on Drake May, if you're kind of unfamiliar with him, he's 6 '4", 225 pounds from Huntersville, North Carolina. He's 23. He was born on August 30th, 2002. He was drafted round one pick three to the Patriots. And this is his second season of play. He currently has 3 ,412 yards, which is the top number of yardage.

7:4323 touchdowns, fourth in the quarterback lineup on number of touchdowns. Six interceptions. This one's funny. Tied for 63rd. like thank you to the Browns for having a billion quarterbacks who have gone in so that he could be what is happening I don't know crazy 63 is crazy yeah like someone feels off about that one but you know whatever and his quarterback rating according to ESPN 72.8 which is fourth so there's no denying if you look at like the most basic of basic stats that anyone can find he is in the top, I would even venture to say two quarterbacks that we're seeing and consistency alone, which is so under, I mean, is it even underrated?

8:29We're not seeing consistency in this way across the board at all from any other team. Even we saw like the Colts, Daniel Jones last week, really bad game, like inconsistency. Patrick Mahomes can't find his receivers, can't pull out wins when he needs to. Jared Goff, one of the most highest completion percentage quarterbacks over the last three years, is losing that in some capacity and unable to consistently reproduce. So having Drake may be able to reproduce week over week over week, even though he's younger and even though he's not in the full, hasn't played every single game this season, you can't ignore it yeah you can't I mean people people are feeling it and one other quarterback I have to mention since we're on top of the quarterback is Josh Allen I mean his completion percentage this season I can only imagine it's not up there but he did break a record and he hit 76 rushing touchdowns which is the most of all time by a quarterback in NFL history and I think that's just amazing because Josh Allen is a period.

9:44Like you have to put a period after that. It's Josh Allen period. He's just an amazing quarterback and it sucks to see the bills and the position that they are because he's forced to play hero ball day in and day out, which is why he probably has 76 rushing touchdowns, but it's still really impressive. So shout out to him. As we have a first down updated season leaders, Victoria mentioned that Drake may is the current passing leader with 3 ,412 passing yards. Rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor is still up there with 1 ,282 receiving yards, Jackson Smith and Jigba with 1 ,336. What's interesting about JSN is he did not score a touchdown in this past game against the Vikings, which I'll talk about the Vikings a little later in this episode, but Sam Donald used to play on the Vikings.

10:31He's now the quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks. He had three fantasy points, three or four fantasy points this week, which is crazy because when you look at the score, it does not reflect that the score is a complete blowout. The Vikings didn't even put points on the board, but JSN did not have a touchdown and he hasn't scored a touchdown in six games thus far in the season, but still has a bunch of yards and is still leading in the category. So might not be getting in the end zone every single game, but you know, Sam Donald's throwing him dimes to at least get down there close in the red zone.

11:03So it's really interesting. Yeah, I love that. I, you know, I think the Colts have been a little bit on the outs the last two weeks with last two games being losses and then an overtime win over the Falcons. So they've been a little bit on the outs of the media. We're just not hearing their name as often as we were three weeks ago. However, Jonathan Taylor is, you know, one of the top running backs in the league and he's holding his spot. He said, I don't care if we're winning or not. I'm going to do my job. And you know what? That's also one of my favorite things about watching players is players who, even if their team is absolute garbage, who still play as if their team was winning and still like make plays for themselves.

11:45because we also forget that their overall stats impact their next year's contracts. And so, you know, we hear sometimes about like, are, you know, somebody DM'd me the other day and said, are the Chiefs, if they lose this weekend, are they going to throw the rest of the season to get a higher draft pick? And I know that that's something that happens under the table, essentially. However, asking a player to do that is like asking a player to like throw away money or throw away their opportunity to get traded, especially from a team that's not producing. So I like it when a player does their job and does it well, regardless of, of how the team is performing.

12:29Yeah. I'm glad you brought up the Chiefs because this brings us right into second down conference check-in. We'll start with kind of the ASC. So as of right now, Now, the Chiefs have a 41 % chance to make the playoffs. If they lose this Sunday, that drops to 14%. And let's talk about who they're playing on Sunday. They're playing the Texans, which is the number one defense in the league. They have only allowed 198 points this season. Broncos, who we consider another really good defense in the league, they've allowed 218. So that's already a little bit of a difference between when you look at the best defenses in the league, the Texans and the Broncos.

13:09The Patriots offense is high flying. We see it. So when you come into this Sunday game and you're playing a team like the Texans, they only allow 265.7 yards per game. I don't know. That playoff chance might drop to that 14 % for the Chiefs because this is going to be a hard matchup for them, especially coming off of a loss on a big day against the Cowboys. Yeah. And I think when the Texans shocked the world and played the Bills and just came out so hot, but also so clean, like I think that's what really separates the Texans defense from another defense is when you watch the Lions defense play like full out.

13:56It almost sometimes can look like aggression for aggression sake. And I think one thing that the Texans are doing so well is they are so strategic in where they put their aggression. It's not everyone just charging for charging sake to be an aggressive defense. It's being aggressive in the right spots at the right time, which is also why we haven't seen any super major injuries on their defense and why they're so scary to play. And I think that if they play the way, if they play the Chiefs the way that they did the Bills, there is no way the Chiefs are winning. There is like just no way because the Chiefs offense already isn't connecting.

14:41And you put the Texans in those red uniforms and I think the Chiefs are going to end up in that 14 % chance for the playoffs. However, Andy Reid did come out last week saying, he said like something kind of gross. I think I erased it from my memory, but about how they're essentially going to try and win out and how that's on the table for them. and I don't know if they have the quality behind those words, but I know that the Chiefs are going to come out hot. So I think that's, you know, one of the games to watch this weekend for sure. Yeah. I mean, they have problems in their offensive line. They have a couple of rookies that are playing games in the offensive line, which was a major deal.

15:18Patrick Mahomes, even from the Cowboys defense, which Cowboys defense looked a lot better in this last game, but it was really interesting to see the amount of pressure that Patrick Mahomes was getting. And mind you, I'm going to, let me take Patrick Mahomes out of this equation, because I think people put too much pressure on him and people are saying, oh, Mahomes is not him anymore. Mahomes is not the good. No, Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks we've seen since Tom Brady. So taking out of the court, the equation, you look at the receiving core, Mashear Rice, yes, Mashear Rice is a phenomenal threat, but he has some rooms to grow.

15:49The defense has been playing with the Chiefs defense. So I think this team as a whole is losing a little bit of its lackluster. And I think that's kind of the reason why they're struggling a little bit. But again, it's Mahomes. You can never count him out until you count him out. Yeah. I also think CJ Stroud had not an incredible game, but a decent game last weekend. I mean, he beat the Colts. You still have to score. Even though your defense is doing a lot of the work for you, you still have to get the ball into the end zone. I think CJ Stroud coming off of a win and that amount of confidence.

16:25You know, to have confidence in your defense already and then to beat the Colts is going to also make that game interesting. C.J. Stroud's completion percentage is 62.9%. So if you think, you know, 12 % more is what Drake May is playing at is kind of crazy. But other interesting thing about this game is that the Colts are only one game on either side away from the Texans. So Colts are 8-4, Texans are 7-5. So if the Colts were to lose this weekend and the Texans are to beat the Chiefs this weekend, they're going to be tied in record, which would be a Colts fall from grace and a Texans kind of rise from the ashes, which there are no surprises left this season because everything's a surprise.

17:17Yeah, unfortunately in the AFC, I feel like no, which is so hard to say, But I feel like the AFC championship game is going to be between the Patriots and the Broncos. And I feel like that's kind of where it's going to end. But it's also really interesting because for the first time in NFL history, five divisions hold a lead less than one game this late into the season. So in the AFC North, the Steelers and Ravens, both are 6-6. They lead by zero games. AFC South, Jaguars and Colts, both 8-4, lead by zero games. NFC West, Rams, and Seahawks, both 9-3. So those three divisions alone, it's a straight tie.

17:57And the NFC North, the Bears are 9-3. The Packers are 8-3-1. Packers technically wouldn't be 9-3 if that game didn't end a tie with the Cowboys. And then in the NFC South, the Bucs are 7-5. The Panthers are 7-6. So there's half of a game lead, essentially, between those two teams. So it's still kind of the NFC still is pretty much wide open. And I think this game between the Cowboys and the Lions on Thursday night is going to put a little bit of the pieces in the NFC together. Because if the Lions win, I think there's still strong contenders to make it to the NFC championship. But if the Cowboys win and mind you, the Cowboys playoff percentage is lower than the Chiefs right now.

18:45So I think it's like a 30 or something. But if the Cowboys win, they could shoot up really high. Dak has the best QBR in the league right now. Cowboys have the best offense in the league. Cowboys have the number one total yards in offense in the league right now. So there's a lot of firsts for the Cowboys. And, you know, as a Dallas girl, I'm very proud. But I'm still not going to get too excited yet because it's still too soon to tell. That game is going to decide a lot for this NFC division. And then looking at the Steelers from the AFC North, I think the vibe of Aaron Rodgers is just really off from what you would want to see from a playoff team.

19:26Like, I don't necessarily feel like I would be excited about him going. They're 6-6 right now in the AFC North. And they did a lot this season to make sure that they could be a winning team, and they're just not. You know, they're right at 500. You know, they're still in the hunt, but all of the trades that they did, getting DK Metcalf, extending TJ Watt, paying Aaron Rodgers, believing Jalen Ramsey was going to do the most. And we're just not seeing the fruit of all of that. And I personally think that it's an Aaron Rodgers problem. So I'm kind of curious to see what the Steelers, do next. They're second in, I mean, they're tied with the Ravens at six and six, both of them in the AFC North, but I'm not really having any expectations of them moving forward.

20:26Yeah, I think this point in the season, you have to start looking at the top of the top, the creme de la creme. And if you're not in the creme de la creme, then unfortunately, we're not talking about you. Well, again, at this point in the season, because it's just like, yeah, I mean, the unthinkable could still happen you could get a wild card spot then who knows you could pull off a really big upset against the team but i don't see that in this future so yeah so moving on okay let's go into our third down what's interesting this week stats meets storylines looking at what is going on jackson dart on the outs he's been contacted while throwing a rushing 95 times since week four.

21:13He was out on concussion protocol, came back. A girl in the chat said that it was now Monday night football instead of football, which I thought was funny. But something has to change over there. We talked about it. We talked about this like a month ago. So I don't understand what's not going right in that organization that Jackson Dart is still having issues in these categories, especially knowing that they're out of the running for the playoffs at all. Well, it's not the organization. It's Jackson Dart trying to be a hero and trying to be like the Josh Allen and play hero ball for a Giants team when it's just not necessary.

21:59And I think while we're hearing it over and over and over again, it's because he's consistently putting his body on the line for no reason. I mean, he got hit by, he's getting hit by grown men. This is not college anymore. And in a press conference after the game against the Patriots, he was like, I'm going to still keep doing what I'm doing. Like, that's just how I play. I keep following my career up until this point. My caveat to that is you cannot play like that. This is the NFL. These are grown men. You're not playing against college caliber people anymore. These are, they're bigger, they're faster, they're stronger.

22:36you get hit how many times you hit 95 times since week four you're in the hospital paralyzed then what happens your team goes down your receivers don't have a quarterback that they can throw to your coach's jobs are on the line because then their team sucks so i i think it's a little bit bigger than him at this point yes we want the gusto and we want him to play like very out and we want him to do him. But at a certain point, you have to, A, protect your body, and B, do what's right for your team. Getting a couple more yards to extend plays and holding the ball too long in the pocket is not going to help your team if you end up getting hurt.

23:17So I think that's why he's in this situation for too long. Okay, I have a hot take on this, though. If he's getting hit 95 times, that's also his offensive line's fault no but the thing is it's not it's not him getting hit behind the line of scrimmage so yes on paper when you look at this you would say oh it's the offensive line now he's getting hit when he's rushing out of the pocket he's running and instead of sliding or going out of bounds he's trying to extend the play and get those extra two three four five yards and he's getting body rocked literally there was a play in this last game against the patriots he gets rocked out of the sideline.

23:5915 % of the time, is it because of his O-line? Sure. But the other 80 % of the time, it's because he's just not being a smart quarterback, which just comes with the maturity of growing in this league and realizing, hey, I can't play the way I've been playing in college because I'm not at Ole Miss anymore. I'm in the NFL. I play for one of the worst teams in the franchise and in the league. So I have to be very smart and I have to be very calculated on how I'm holding the ball, when I am choosing to slide and all of these things. Yeah, I think it's tough because if you look at every quarterback that's truly, truly praised in this league right now, which the, I would say the top two most praised quarterbacks in this league are Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

24:45And both of those guys use their legs like nobody's business. They're praised for it. We talk about it every week. Everyone is talking about it. And I can empathize with Jackson Dart saying, I want to be them. And the way to be them is to do this. And unfortunately, he has to realize that one of the reasons why they're able to do that is because they're poised under pressure and not scattering under pressure. and he's doing a little bit of like cat and mouse under pressure rather than taking the L when he needs to take the L. But I do also think that this does come back to coaching. I think that it is a little bit of ego from him for sure.

25:28Like a little bit of ego and a little bit of him trying to be the guy. And I think also if you watch even from younger days, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, the amount of poise and you said maturity. And I think that as well, if you watch younger ones of them, they're not trying to be flashy guys which I think Jackson Dart okay this is what I think I think Jackson Dart is attractive I think he's gotten girls wherever he's went I think that he has thrived off of being on the cockier side and I don't mean that he's an asshole I don't really know that much about him interpersonally but from what he's showing in press conferences side of the field, etc.

26:08It's that his expectations for himself or that he's hot, that he is attractive to whether that be women or the media or other players. And I think like that ego is putting him in these negative situations. But I do think that it's on the coaching staff to say, if you're going to play like this, you're done. We don't need we don't actually need someone that's going to get rocked like that. We're already out. Well, the problem is you have to let the guy learn and the coach participation is already abysmal because they fired their head coach this season so you have their i think defensive coordinator the offensive coordinator taking over play calling right now and the head coach position so yes yeah there needs to be a cultural shift and mind you abdul carter another very very very high pick that the giants got from penn state abdul carter is Michael Parsons 2.0.

27:02Literally. That's Abdul Carter. He got benched after the first quarter because of behavioral issues. This, I am so, so over these players, missing meetings, not taking stuff seriously. You're in the National Football League. You know how many people want to be in your, no, like that, that is unspeakable to me. You can, you can go home and I can cut you right now for my football team, because if you're not going to take this seriously, there is 15, 13 ,000 other little boys out there that will die to be in your position. And you want to tell me you're going to get benched because you can't, you're, you can't show up on time for stuff.

27:39Absolutely. Really close to me, but to go back to the coaching situation, that organization does need help in that department. And I think that's going to be a big reason how Jackson Dart learned and grows from this first season is when this new coach comes in. And a lot of people are saying this in the media, the giants, GM, he has a huge decision to make because this next coach that's going to come in is going to either make or break the Giants season because if the right person walks in that door and is the head coach of the Giants, they could be the Patriots in 2026 because they have the talent on that team, especially with Jackson Dart.

28:16It just depends on his coaching football team. Yeah, I think like, I don't know, to close out the Jackson Dart conversation, I think that he probably, like I think if we had a heart-to-heart with Jackson Dart, that's so cute, we would learn that especially after cam scadaboo left especially with the losing record especially with his original win he feels an immense amount of pressure to be able to make things happen and he doesn't trust his team or his coaching staff to make it happen and so it feels more worth it to him to have better numbers to get extra yards because he doesn't not that he doesn't trust them as people, but he doesn't trust the team to make plays.

28:58And he's shouldering a lot of that burden, whether that's correct or incorrect. I think that that's what we would uncover. And I think especially with Cam going out, he's like, well, now this team is on my back. And so maybe it's an ego thing, but maybe it's like, I mean, I know in my life, I put immense pressure on myself for reasons that like from the outside, people would be like, there's no reason for that pressure. And I'm like, well, this is how it feels to me. So I am curious to see who is the head coach going to be? How are they going to do with another offseason? You know, kind of knowing this is Jackson's inclination is to run.