6 Americans detained in Iran face ‘unprecedented danger’

0:00Roger Carstens:This message comes from KeyBank. Scaling a successful business takes more than just grit. It takes the right relationship. KeyBank pairs the right strategy with the right financial tools to keep your business moving forward. KeyBank opens doors. More at key.com slash B2B. WBUR Podcasts, Boston.

0:25Roger Carstens:They have a few Americans, we believe a total of six. they're holding them to whenever it's appropriate for them to try to use them as leverage against us.

0:35Kathryn Anne Edwards:Several Americans face what advocates call unprecedented danger as detainees in Iran.

0:50Kathryn Anne Edwards:It's Thursday, April 16th, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WBUR Boston. I'm Shiko Thayoudi. Today on the show, the S &P 500 hit a new record this week as traders remain optimistic about a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. And fewer than half of all Americans have$1 ,000 saved up in case of an emergency. Why aren't we able to save more? There's lots of great policies to turn America into a country of savers. We have them. We know they're successful. We do not implement them. But first, there are new signs of diplomacy after almost seven weeks of war in the Middle East. President Trump has announced that Israel and Lebanon will begin a 10-day ceasefire at 5 p.m.

1:37Kathryn Anne Edwards:Eastern time today. Meanwhile, Pakistan's army chief is in Tehran to try to extend a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, but there's no date for the next round of talks. In the midst of this conflict, at least six Americans are being held in Iran, according to detainee advocates, and their future could be tied to what happens at the negotiating table. Roger Carstens knows this well. He served as the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs under Presidents Trump and Biden and helped bring home more than 60 Americans held by foreign governments and armed groups around the world. Here's his conversation with Lisa Mullins.

2:15Roger Carstens:Before we get to the diplomacy, who are the Americans being held right now? And do you know how long they've been held? Yeah, so we have two Americans that really pop up right on the list. There's Reza Valzetta, and he's been held since last September. He is an interesting gentleman. He was a dual American-Iranian citizen who went back to visit his parents, his elderly grandparents. As I understand, there was also some issues of government duress involved in his return. He was a journalist for many years, worked for Radio Farta, Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, and reported extensively on corruption and election manipulation in Iran, and also the abuses of the population.

3:01And he went back and was arrested immediately, put up, I would say, in a sham trial for collaboration,

3:07Roger Carstens:that charges collaboration with a hostile government and is currently serving a 10-year sentence. And then additionally, we have another gentleman, Kamran Hekmaadi, a Jewish-Iranian-American citizen who's charged with visiting Israel within the past 10 years. And of course, that's, you know, strangely you might come to know, that's a crime in Iran. So he's also serving his time in Evin prison. And there are also four other Americans that we believe to be there. But for reasons of their own privacy and their family's desires and security, no one's really publishing their names. So they are being detained there, presumably for leverage.

3:48Roger Carstens:I mean, it's called wrongful detention in the eyes of the United States. We know the pattern is that foreigners are picked up in Iran on vague charges and then held and used to pressure Washington during negotiations. To what extent are there likely conversations going on right now about the fate of these detainees? And do you call them hostages? So it's a great question. Let me let me take the last question first. We call it wrongful detention. It's kind of a term of art that's used mainly only by the United States of America. European countries tend to call it the arbitrary detention. And yet it's essentially state hostage taking.

4:29Roger Carstens:You know, there are legal reasons in international law that we gravitate towards terms like arbitrary detention, wrongful detention. But when it comes right down to it, it's when a nation state takes a citizen of another country and uses them as a political bargaining chip. And, you know, to me, that's also a hostage. I was the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs for five years. And for all five years, I would always scratch my head and wonder why we couldn't just simplify this into the word hostage. And to answer your second question, Iran's interesting. There are some countries that will grab one of our citizens because they have a specific thing in mind.

5:05Roger Carstens:Iran was not like that. They would usually just arrest like three, four, five Americans. And at a certain point in time, maybe come to a conclusion that they might want to get something A or thing B. and then meet us at the negotiating table and then bargain for what they wanted. But they didn't necessarily take the American citizen with an end state in mind. And I think this is the case here. You know, they have a few Americans, we believe a total of six. They're holding them to whenever it's appropriate for them to try to use them as leverage against us. For what reason would Iran want to continue to hold them?

5:40I mean, if they want to have them in their back pocket, so to speak, that's presumably to use them at one point.

5:46Roger Carstens:If they're not going to use them now, then when? What's the rationale? Yeah, I spent years trying to figure that out. I would say that there probably will be a point in the negotiations where it hangs on a thread or it could just take a small push in one direction to get something that they want. And then the prisoner issue would be added in as what we call a sweetener. Not like a critical issue, but something that might get you over the hump and into a completed negotiation. So my thought is that if the prisoners are brought up on the Iranian side, it will be as a sweetener. I think on our side, I would like to see it more as a fundamental issue that has to be resolved.

6:23From your perspective as somebody who has been able to help negotiate,

6:28Roger Carstens:Evan Garshkovic from The Wall Street Journal, get him out of prison in Russia, Brittany Greiner, the WNBA star. If negotiations take place at a time like this, really key negotiations with Iran, and the detainees are not considered, is that a lost opportunity forever? I mean, what's your view? I would say forever. I mean, I think where there's a will, there's a way. And failure is not really an option. So no matter what, we have to get these people back. So I think this is something that the U.S. government will pursue regardless. But boy, now would be a great time. And if you look back historically, even when nations are at war, they often find a way to trade prisoners of war or other prisoners back and forth.

7:13Roger Carstens:In 1973, we were able to get our prisoners out of Vietnam, despite the fact we were still in a hot conflict. The Russians routinely trade prisoners with the Ukrainians, despite the fact that they're fighting tooth and nail. So there is an opportunity here. And to me, in a way, part of our duty as a country to get our citizens back. Roger Carstens is the former U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, and he is now a distinguished senior fellow with the McCain Institute. Very nice to talk with you. Thank you. It's a pleasure. Thank you.

7:50Kathryn Anne Edwards:Coming up next, the markets hit a new record this week. Details after the break.

8:05Kathryn Anne Edwards:This message comes from Easy Cater, the workplace food platform. Easy Cater helps organizations order food from favorite restaurants, meet dietary needs, and stay on budget. With employee meal programs, flexible payment options, and 24-7 customer support, all on one platform. Learn more at easycater.com. Support for NPR and the following message come from HomeServe. It never happens at a good time. The pipe bursts at midnight. The heater quits on the coldest night. Good thing HomeServe's hotline is available 24-7. Call to schedule a repair and a local pro will be on their way. Trusted by millions.

8:43Kathryn Anne Edwards:For plans starting at$4.99 a month, go to homeserve.com. Not available everywhere. Most plans range between$4.99 to$11.99 a month your first year. Terms apply on covered repairs. No one knows when the war on Iran will end. The Strait of Hormuz is still a point of contention, and even if a formal peace deal is reached soon, things may take some time to get back to some semblance of normal, which makes us curious why investors seem to be optimistic. On Wednesday, the S &P 500 hit a record high. So did the Nasdaq. Ali Valshi is host and chief data reporter at MSNOW and joined Peter O'Dowd to make sense of it.

9:27Roger Carstens:I like to remind people that the stock market's not the economy and is often driven by momentum. You know, over the time, we've called it broker trading or we've called it day trading. But that's what's happening here. Unlike the trade in oil, which has remained stubbornly high, with oil, ultimately, someone is buying something that they're going to take delivery of at some point in the future. So it's a real looking through, you know, the glass and trying to see what's happening. Stocks don't have to do that. You can buy stocks today and you can sell them tomorrow. if things look like they're more positive today, buy the stocks today.

9:59Roger Carstens:So that's the non-fundamental part of what's happening in the stock market. There are some fundamentals. Defense stocks are up and oil stocks are up. So that has been driving things up because when oil prices are high, stocks go higher. The United States keeps on talking about more missiles and more troops, and there are still people who are worried about an ongoing war. That always helps defense stocks. And somewhat unrelated to this, but somewhat related, There's been this surge for the last over a year in AI-related stocks. And as we now know, AI-related stocks are very, very closely related to defense.

10:31Roger Carstens:In fact, most of the major AI players that we know of, including ChatGBT and Google Gemini and Anthropic, which is Claude, they're all involved in the stuff that's happening in this war right now. So the demand for their products and services are going up. So that's why the stock market may not be making sense to people as to why it's surging when things still look very uncertain about this war. I see.

10:53Ali Velshi:OK, I take your point because from an outside perspective, it does sound like investors are essentially taking President Trump at his word when he says the war is almost over. The president might be wrong. He's not in full control of what happens in the Middle East. But you're saying, if I'm hearing you correctly, that there are actually other things going on in the stock market. There are a few other things, yes.

11:13Roger Carstens:OK, all right. Left to its own devices, the stock market would be doing okay. And so, yes, you can add in that the war might be ending or that you believe that Donald Trump is saying that. If you don't believe it tomorrow, you can sell those stocks. And that's part of – the stock market is more nimble than the oil market right now.

11:29Ali Velshi:I want to play some tape from Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank. She was at a Bloomberg event in Washington, D.C. earlier this week, and she said there's a big split right now happening among investors. There is a tendency by some to assume that it's business as usual. And I think there is a bit of a dichotomy between those who regard business as usual and those, on the other hand, who are saying, watch out. It's a very significant shock. Ali, what do you think about that? Are we being too optimistic?

12:01Roger Carstens:Yeah, I mean, oil is above$100 a barrel. It's still, that tells me more than the stock market tells me right now. There are some very serious things going on. Prices of everything are being affected. Inflation is up again. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have both said that there's a real concern of a global recession coming up. Remember, when there are recessions, the way to fight that is to drop interest rates to stimulate spending. Well, in an inflationary world, when you drop interest rates, you make inflation go higher. So you end up with a situation called stagflation.

12:32Roger Carstens:So it's very hard to fight. And on top of that, there are some real practical concerns. There are reports now that Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel left because they're being affected by the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. So, you know, think about global commerce. Think about travel. Think about all those things that are going on. There's probably more reason to be thinking like Christine Lagarde than not to be. But people like her, international economists, they think about risks on the longer term. Most of us should be thinking about the stock market in the longer term. But right now, there's this competing – there are competing interests of people who are making money on short-term gains and bets versus what's going to actually happen in the next six months to 12 months.

13:13Ali Velshi:We've been talking about what's happening in U.S. markets. Take a look at the global picture right now. How are stock markets and other cities around the world viewing all this?

13:23Roger Carstens:Well, stock markets are generally tracking the U.S. In other words, on a good day, things go well. On a bad day, things go poorly. The distinction is stock markets that are affected directly by the things that are going through the Strait of Hormuz. So if you get your oil from the Strait of Hormuz, which is most of Asia, you're being affected more negatively. Or if you're Africa and you're getting your fertilizer and products that go through the Strait of Hormuz, you're being affected very negatively. The bottom line is the United States and most Western countries are not particularly dependent on energy that comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is why Western economies generally are faring more strongly than Asian and African economies.

14:00Roger Carstens:But Asia is about to feel the pinch right now because they're affected directly. They buy the actual oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz.

14:07Ali Velshi:Ali Velshi is MSNOW host and chief data reporter. Ali, always good to speak with you. Thanks. My pleasure.

14:20Kathryn Anne Edwards:Coming up, Americans aren't the best when it comes to saving. We dig into why after the break.

14:36Kathryn Anne Edwards:Hopefully you were able to file your taxes on time this year. The White House said that this would be the, quote, largest tax refund season in U.S. history. The jury is still out on whether that's actually true. Question is, what are you going to do with your refund? Splurge on a vacation? Maybe pay down your credit card debt or store it away in a savings account? A lot of Americans have trouble saving money, and here to help us understand why is Catherine Anne Edwards. She's a labor economist based in Houston and co-host of the Optimist Economy podcast. Here's her conversation with Peter.

15:11Ali Velshi:Those refunds, they do look bigger because of some of the new tax breaks and tax deductions out there. What are you seeing?

15:17Kathryn Anne Edwards:The one big, beautiful bill's massive cost, which was around$460 billion a year, was extending the tax cuts originally passed in 2017. So that means that people are going to continue paying a lower tax rate than they did in prior periods. But some of those numbers are skewed by the fact that the biggest tax cuts went to the highest earners. We have a progressive tax system. When you cut taxes, you end up cutting taxes for the richest more simply by the virtue of our progressive system. So at the time that the bill was passed, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that it would make the difference of under$1 ,000 for the vast majority of families.

15:57Kathryn Anne Edwards:And you don't get the big dollars, the$3 ,000,$4 ,000,$15 ,000 more a year back in taxes unless you're amongst the highest 10 % of earners.

16:07Ali Velshi:I see. All right. So for people who are getting a tax refund this year, there are some retail surveys out there that suggest more people plan to use that money this year to pay off bills and debt rather than save. Does that line up with what you're seeing? And if so, what does it say about the economy?

16:27Kathryn Anne Edwards:It lines up perfectly with what we've seen from the labor market and from credit markets. The U.S. labor market has had a low unemployment rate but has been in steady decline for about four years. We're not seeing as many people quit. We're not seeing as many people get hired. And we're not seeing high wage growth. So how do you afford a more expensive life when your wages aren't rising that quickly? You borrow. And so in tandem, we have seen an explosion in consumer credit, consumer debt, and even over the past, say, nine months, a steady increase in the number of 90-day delinquencies on that rolling debt.

17:02Kathryn Anne Edwards:Now, it's not like the 2000s when a lot of the explosion in debt was coming from housing market, right? You saw mortgage debt and home equity lines of credit take off. Today's debt is much more in the consumer credit market, so auto loans, credit card loans, and other unsecured loans.

17:18Ali Velshi:Bankrate's annual survey says that less than half of Americans have$1 ,000 saved up in case of an emergency. And I think you just laid out the reason for why.