After Venezuela, where will the 'Donroe Doctrine' go next?

0:00Support for WBUR comes from Is Business Broken? a podcast from the Mehrotra Institute at Boston University that explores questions like, why is innovation in healthcare so hard? Is ESG just greenwashing? And of course, is business broken? Listen wherever you get your podcasts. WBUR Podcasts, Boston. For me, it is clear that there were a lot of people, you know, that maybe was giving information to the United States. And probably one of them is Delphi Rodriguez. An exiled Venezuelan journalist says the U.S. had help in high places when it snatched Nicolas Maduro.

0:54It's Wednesday, January 7th, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WVUR. I'm Chris Bentley.

1:03Today, the American military said it boarded two oil tankers, one in the Caribbean Sea and the other in the North Atlantic. The one in the North Atlantic had eluded the American naval blockade of Venezuela weeks ago and was reportedly flying under a Russian flag. The other tanker was stateless, according to U.S. Southern Command. Seizing ships is just one way that the U.S. is remaking the Western Hemisphere by force. And a little later on the show, we'll discuss President Trump's overtures to a new era of American imperialism. Also, oil is a valuable resource. But you know what's even more valuable in an era when you can gamble on the outcomes of world events?

1:50Information. There were more and more bets. I think it was close to$32 ,000 worth of money was pumped into this idea that Maduro would be toppled. And then, of course, when he was arrested, that turned into some$400 ,000. It's quite the windfall for this gambler. A questionable whale on Polymarket. Before we get to that story, though, after putting the president of Venezuela in jail, the U.S. is taking control of the country's oil industry. President Trump says Venezuela's interim government will turn over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said today the U.S.

2:31is seizing not just those barrels, but the whole Venezuelan oil industry. He spoke this morning at Goldman Sachs' annual energy conference. We're going to market the crude coming out of Venezuela, first this backed up stored oil, and then indefinitely going forward, we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace. We will have U.S. as the supplier of diluent that's got to get down there to enable that production. We're going to have that flowing again. A big reason that that oil has not been flowing so much in recent years is American sanctions, which have been in place since 2005, but got significantly harsher during Trump's first administration.

3:11Now that they're taking the oil for the U.S., Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said they want to use the money they make selling it to benefit Venezuelans. But how much of the proceeds will actually go to Venezuela, and in what form, they haven't said. There is a lot of need in Venezuela. American sanctions and corruption have decimated the economy there. So we've been trying to reach someone in Venezuela for an update on daily life. That's proven difficult. Journalists we've reached out to have said they're afraid to speak because of government repression. Militias are reportedly detaining people, including reporters, and checking their phones.

3:54Scott Tong did manage to reach Roberto Denise, a longtime Venezuelan investigative journalist, with the publication Armando.info. But he left Venezuela after being threatened with arrest. So Scott reached him in Bogota, Colombia. There is a lot of fear right now in Venezuela. These images of the militias, like we call them in Venezuela, that are civilians with guns that are under the orders of people of the Venezuelan revolution. and that was a clear message from some internal forces. Well, don't go out to protest. Don't go out to celebrate. If you want to celebrate that Maduro was captured, it was a powerful message to intimidate.

4:43And that is the reason because there are a lot of fear and afraid right now in Venezuela. Yeah. So you have reported for a long time on Maduro and his inner circle, including Delce Rodriguez, where she was the vice president, immediately after Maduro was taken. She became the interim president. Why do you think she is now at the top? Yes, Delphi not only was the vice president of Nicolás Maduro, she also was the oil minister in Venezuela. There is a key role in Venezuela as an oil producer country. I think that maybe at this moment, this is an unfolding story. We don't have all the elements. But for me, it's clear that Delcy Rodriguez was trying to make a deal with the United States, even before the capture of Nicolás Maduro, you know, to send a message to the United States.

5:41Well, how we can solve this? Now, Donald Trump saying that, well, Delcy is in charge and Delcy has to follow our instructions because now we are in charge in the country. I think that Delphi Rodriguez is facing right now this pressure, the external pressure of Donald Trump administration and also the internal pressures, the other force in the revolution that started to see her like, you know, a kind of traitor, a person that maybe made a deal with the United States, a secret deal that nobody knew until all of this started to happen. Wow. So can I just, I want to make sure I understand, because after Maduro was taken, right, it was reported that the U.S.

6:31military intelligence, they had somebody on the inside. They had a mole, an informant who was telling the U.S. exactly where Maduro was, where he was moving, how to find him. Are you suggesting that it could have been Delcey Rodriguez? For me, it is very clear that Delsi Rodriguez was negotiating with Donald Trump administration before all of this happened. I am not totally sure that maybe she was the one that said, well, this is all of the info that Nicolás Maduro, that you need to capture him. Probably we also can suspect about some military forces or some even inner circle of Nicolás Maduro war.

7:17For me, it is clear that there were a lot of people, you know, that maybe was giving information to the United States. And probably one of them is Delphi Rodriguez. Probably one of them. Okay, I understand. Now, Delphi Rodriguez is reportedly very wealthy, as are others who are still in the inner circle, right? The Interior Minister, D 'Otado Cabello, the Defense Minister, General Padrino. Why are they so wealthy? Yes. You have to think the Venezuelan regime, not only an authoritarian regime, but you have to think Venezuela right now also as a kleptocentric government. All of them manage millions and millions of the Venezuelan public funds in contract with the state.

8:05And that is the reason they are so wealthy. and they are... You're talking about they're at the center of the corruption in the system. Is that what you mean? Yes, totally. Yes. And as a journalist, of course, I would like to be right now in Caracas in Venezuela reporting, but it's so risky and it's so difficult to think in that possibility right now. Roberto Diniz is a longtime Venezuelan investigative journalist. He joined us from Bogota, Colombia. Roberto, thank you so much. Thank you so much. Well, all that corruption we were just hearing about is one reason Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave for the U.S.

8:45seizure of Venezuela's oil industry. Rubio said the U.S. will control how oil is dispersed, quote, in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people, not corruption, not the regime. Adding that control of the oil industry gives the U.S. a lot of leverage over the Venezuelan government. But that's not the only reason Rubio's given for taking Venezuela's oil. Here he is on Meet the Press. Why does China need their oil? Why does Russia need their oil? Why does Iran need their oil? They're not even in this continent. This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live. And we're not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States.

9:26We've got lots more on the Trump administration's designs to expand American influence under the threat of military force coming up after a short break.

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10:23Support for NPR and the following message come from the Lemelson Foundation, dedicated to improving lives through invention, innovation, and climate action. Today, the White House press secretary said the decisions of Venezuela's interim government, quote, are going to continue to be dictated by the United States, end quote. And the U.S. is throwing its weight around at sea as well, announcing the seizure of two more oil tankers. The U.S. military said today on X that the Russian-flagged ship it had chased for weeks and eventually captured in the North Atlantic was in violation of U.S. sanctions.

11:04Russia accused the U.S. of violating maritime law. That wouldn't be the only pillar of international law disregarded by the Trump administration, which has been threatening countries from Cuba to Denmark this week. We wanted Jim Walsh's take on everything that's going on. He's here and now's security analyst and a scholar at MIT. Here's his conversation with Scott Tong and Indira Lakshmanan. Well, that registration and reflagging was hastily done, but nevertheless, it was done. And my major reaction is not to that as much as the Russians decided to send naval surface ships and a submarine to escort that oil tanker back to Russia.

11:46And so we had, you know, circa World War, not World War, but, you know, Cold War, we had a confrontation, a near confrontation between Russian and American military ships and assets in the open sea. Now, the bluff was called. The Russians did not attempt to protect the tanker and all worked out well. But, you know, it's worth footnoting because it's all great when it works out, but it's a bet. And if you're mistaken in your bet, if someone screws up, if there's a dead soldier as a consequence of that sort of interaction, then you're in a very different place. So I think they correctly bet the Russians weren't going to make a big risk, especially when they've got Ukraine and that's their top priority.

12:33But, you know, it's normally not a great thing when military assets are face-to-face at sea. And, well, Jim, I mean the U.S. is talking more about enforcing oil sanctions, right? The Russians have long been known for running this shadow fleet. These sanctions have not always been enforced on the high seas. But if there's more of this, there might be more of these moments. I think so. I mean, at the broader level, there's no way the U.S. is going to be able – has enough naval resources to intersect every single tanker that is running in the shadow market. And if you attempted to do that, you would run the U.S.

13:12Navy into the ground. I mean, as it is, we've had all these assets parked off Venezuela. You know, those seamen and women have been there for an extended period of time. The boats are in sea and degrading. They need maintenance. They need to be in the dry dock. So it's not the sort of thing that you can run these operations forever and to counter everything. But the point is to sort of create some stress and some fear in the heart of the Venezuelan government. Jim, I want to move you over to Greenland now, that semi-autonomous Danish territory in the Arctic. Many of the people who live there are part Inuit, part Danish.

13:45Shortly after Nicolás Maduro was removed from Venezuela, President Trump was asked about Greenland and he told reporters we need Greenland from the standpoint of national security. Now, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was just asked this question about Greenland today. Will you take military intervention off the table? I'm not here to talk about Denmark or military intervention. I'll be meeting with them next week. We'll have those conversations with them then. All right. Well, Rubio wouldn't rule out the military option. That seems like a huge deal considering Denmark is a NATO ally, an attack on one is an attack on all.

14:21Remember Article 5? So how huge of a deal is it that the United States is actually talking about potentially seizing Greenland from a NATO ally? It's shocking. It's unbelievable. It's absurd. First of all, as you point out, NATO is an ally. We already have a U.S. base there. If we wanted to put more people in there, we could. And it's not just that they're a member of NATO. There are a lot of slackers in NATO, but Denmark has been one of the most robust supportive allies you could have ever wanted, you know, during Iraq, during Afghanistan, when some European countries simply kept their soldiers in barracks.

14:58The Danes were out taking losses. They were fighting. They have a lethal force. They count, and they're our friends. And the idea that we would turn, you know, what does NATO do if an attack in one is an attack on all, and you're being attacked by your own ally member. It's stunning. And if it were to happen, it would certainly mean the end of the most important security alliance in the history of the United States. And even if it doesn't happen, it just is another straw on the camel's back, you know, in addition to insults and tariffs and all the rest. Well, it's utterly head scratching. But will Trump's idea of buying Greenland go anywhere?

15:36It seems like the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, has completely knocked that down, saying forget about it. Well, of course, they're not going to sell Greenland. I mean, imagine you're the head of that state, and then the United States is bullying you, threatening you, you know. How do you think your domestic population is reacting? They're pretty darn upset. This gives her no room to maneuver. And in any case, I can't believe that they would do it. And none of the Europeans are supportive as well, for obvious reasons. Well, Jim, I saw the French foreign minister quoted today saying, you know, gone are the days when you can purchase Louisiana.

16:10From the French. So anyway, but that's where that came from. More broadly, just in the region, right? President Trump says the U.S. needs Greenland for national security. It comes a few days after removing the president of Venezuela. The president has talked about a doctrine. You know, this is our neighborhood here in this in this hemisphere. If you're a leader in this hemisphere, notably if you're in Latin America and you hear the president threatening Greenland, or Cuba, do you have to take it seriously? If you're a military planner, you have to present your leader with all appropriate options for all appropriate contingencies.

16:51How could you not? You would be derelict of duty if you didn't at least think about it. You have to, even as you work as hard as you can to prevent that from happening. Jim, the president has made a lot of controversial out of the blue statements or threats in the last year. But after we've seen the administration follow through and actually send a delta force in to oust Maduro, are foreign leaders, including our allies, taking these statements much more seriously? Something that would have been unimaginable a few weeks ago, maybe now is imaginable. They have to take it seriously. They have no choice.

17:26And let's face it, there is a record here. In 2025 alone, 365 days one year, President Trump has bombed seven different countries. He's bombed seven different countries, threatened Canada, threatened Mexico, threatened Denmark, threatened Colombia, even as he pardoned a Honduran president who was involved in drug trafficking. This is not about strategy. It's not about the Monroe Doctrine, And like, do we really think Trump read the Monroe Doctrine? It's not about party politics. It's about personality, one that is unpredictable, one that says one thing one day and something else a minute or a day later.

18:08So in that uncertainty with what is clearly antipathy towards our friends and allies, you're going to have to hedge and protect your back. Any head of a state would be forced to do that. Yeah. And Jim, we got about a minute here. Just briefly back on Greenland as we're kind of watching moment by moment what happens here. The president says this is national security. Greenland has minerals. You know, it's in the Arctic, touchy part of the world. Do you buy that this is national security here? There's definitely a national security component, but it's irrelevant. I mean, Greenland is important. The Arctic is important.

18:46But we already have it, if you will, have in quotation marks, because it's being protected by our dear ally who allows us to station U.S. personnel, including military, on it. Like, what more do—why is it that the deed has to say Donald Trump? That escapes me. I mean, you wouldn't want—you couldn't ask for a better ally than Denmark. What else can they possibly do? It's not about control of Greenland. It's about us. It's about Trump owning it. And these threats extend not just—it's not the Monroe Doctrine. And it's not just Latin America. It's wherever his attention takes him that he feels like, well, we should own that.

19:26I mean, for all we know, it'll be Manchester, England next. We will keep watching that with you here and now. Security analyst Jim Walsh, senior research associate at MIT. Thanks so much for joining us, Jim. Thank you.

19:42Coming up in Back to the Future Part 2, Biff Tannen gets a sports almanac from the future that gives him advanced knowledge of the outcomes of gains. If the movie were made today, he wouldn't need a sports almanac to get that infinite money glitch. Just a newspaper. After the break, how one whale made$400 ,000 gambling on the ouster of Nicolas Maduro, and what it says about this brave new world of prediction markets. Indira Lakshmanan has that story after the break.

20:42over shared values to protect the climate and environment. LOE spotlights fascinating new science and research and features big-picture discussions about living authentically. Look for Living on Earth wherever you get your podcasts.

21:02Support for this podcast comes from Nature is the Solution, a podcast from the Nature Conservancy. When it comes to the environment, it's easy to focus on doom and gloom. But that's not the whole story, especially when there are so many projects working towards bringing people and nature together. In this moment, optimism isn't naive, it's necessary. Follow Nature is the Solution wherever you listen to podcasts and discover stories of impact and possibility.

21:35It's fair to say that most people were surprised when they woke up last Saturday to news that the U.S. Army's elite Delta Force had conducted a top-secret pre-dawn operation to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and spirit them out of the country to face drug charges in New York. But at least one person out there was betting on it. Literally. Starting on December 27th, an anonymous bettor placed a series of high-stakes wagers that Maduro would be ousted within weeks. The last bet was placed just hours before Maduro was removed, and this person raked in more than$400 ,000 on their gamble.

22:16Wagers were placed through a crypto-based betting platform called Polymarket, and their raising eyebrows among finance industry professionals who suspect the big wins may have been more than just a lucky guess. Let's bring in NPR technology correspondent Bobby Allen, who's been following this story. Bobby, welcome. Hey. So this sounds like a very bold and very lucky guess, or like someone may have had some insider knowledge about U.S. plans. Apparently, this winner has already cashed out their winnings. For folks, including me, who had never heard of Polymarket before this happened, please explain to us what it is.

22:52Sure. So Polymarket is a prediction markets app, and it's basically a place where you can go mostly on your phone and bet on anything. Right now, prediction markets are mostly for sports, so like college football, college basketball, you name it. But you could also bet on world events. Like will OpenAI CEO Sam Altman use the word safety the next time he speaks? Will President Trump nominate this person or that person for Fed chair? Will we deport X number of migrants in the coming months or Y number of migrants in the coming months? So people are betting on all sorts of real world events and making lots and lots of money.

23:29Now, Polymarket, during the Biden administration, was actually put under. They were pushed out of the U.S. They were seen as basically operating illegally in an unlicensed way. There's a competitor called Kaoshi. They are still in the U.S. Polymarket is about to make its return. And it's kind of complicated, but to break it down, there's basically two Polymarkets right now. There's one that is for sports only, and then there's an overseas one where people are accessing it through a VPN. But essentially, these are apps where you can turn the whole world into a casino. Okay, so you're basically telling me that through this overseas poly market, you can bet on anything from whether a fictional character in your favorite soap opera will have a fictional affair to whether the leader of a nation might be ousted by another leader of a nation.

24:17So that means this could have been an American bettor using a VPN but betting on the overseas poly market. So let's talk about these bets. How many were placed and how much were they worth? So people started noticing the Friday before the operation that arrested Maduro that there was some money, tens of thousands of dollars being put into a wager that asked would Maduro be toppled by the end of January. And that raised a lot of eyebrows because at that point there was no intelligence or reporting or really anyone credible saying that this was going to happen. And so it really raised the question, does this trader know something that everyone else doesn't?

24:58Come Saturday morning, there were more and more bets. I think it was close to$32 ,000 worth of money was pumped into this idea that Maduro would be toppled. And then, of course, when he was arrested, that turned into some$400 ,000. It's quite the windfall for this gambler. And people are saying, was this just a bunch of well-timed bets or was this a U.S. official Or was this somebody who had access somehow to classified information from the military? We just don't know. And there's a lot of online sleuths sort of going through and trying to trace the transactions through the various crypto wallets.

25:36And there's a lot of theories that are sort of knocking around social media. Nobody has been able to exactly figure out who this person is. You know, you can't use insider trading to bet on stock or commodities like grain or oil. But are there any bodies that regulate betting markets like Polymarket? Well, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission does regulate Kaoshi, which is Polymarket's competitor, and does regulate some parts of Polymarket. Now, this particular bet seemed to be placed on the overseas arm of Polymarket. So it is in this sort of legal gray area that might not be under the jurisdiction of regulators in the U.S.