Is Cuba about to collapse?

0:00Jeffrey DeLaurentis:Support for Here and Now Anytime comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software for technical computing and model-based design. MathWorks, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science. Learn more at mathworks.com. WBUR Podcasts, Boston.

0:22Linda Bilmes:Using humanitarian suffering as a tool for political change, I find really not only uncomfortable, but not the United States that I know. Trump's foreign policy is not exactly winning hearts and minds.

0:46Linda Bilmes:It's Monday, March 23rd, and this is Here and Now, Anytime from NPR and WBR. I'm Chris Bentley. Today on the show, the economic toll of war. It's not just gas prices.

1:01Jeffrey DeLaurentis:The impact on energy costs, shipping costs, insurance costs, all of these costs are going to be enormous.

1:08Linda Bilmes:Also, we'll meet a man who left his job at the Department of Homeland Security and now works as a paralegal on immigration cases. But first, the U.S. is now weeks into a war with Iran that it initially claimed would be a quick operation with no end in sight. And at the same time, the Trump administration is pushing regime change in Cuba. Cuba's communist government has held on to power for nearly 70 years, despite economic warfare and coup attempts from the U.S., but the country is now suffering its worst humanitarian crisis in decades. On top of its long-standing trade embargo, the U.S. recently imposed a total blockade of oil reaching the island, crippling Cuba's power grid and forcing cuts to everything from trash collection to hospital service.

1:57Linda Bilmes:Jeffrey De Laurentiis was the top diplomat at the American embassy in Havana from 2015 to 2017. And he tells Indira Lakshmanan, the U.S. is escalating things quickly. We've moved from economic reform and a gradual approach. And then we heard talk about the U.S. wanting the removal of so-called older officials who remain committed to the ideas of Fidel Castro. And then I'm guessing there might have been some blowback from the Cuban diaspora wanting more than gradual economic reforms. And the secretary of state said what the Cubans have suggested is not enough. And I think we'll have to see.

2:41Jeffrey DeLaurentis:Cuban leaders say they're preparing for a possible U.S. invasion, but the two sides are reportedly also in talks. Is the Trump administration pressure campaign having the desired results? In terms of the administration,

2:56Linda Bilmes:well, representatives of the administration have been going around for weeks saying 2026 is the year the Cuban regime is going to fall, transition is going to begin. And clearly, they had the Venezuelan model in mind. And that's why they've begun to talk to Raul Castro's son and grandson and grandnephew and so forth. This seemed to be the model they were looking at it. I call it maybe a bit glibly, kind of a coercive version of Obama 2.0. And this now seems to have gotten stuck.

3:39Jeffrey DeLaurentis:Well, let me ask, because Cuban leaders have offered vague promises of reforming the economy and even the government. Do you believe, having lived there and interacted with this regime, that real change is possible with the current government? Raul Castro is still alive and is seen as the power behind the throne. Or are they simply talking about reform just in an effort to avoid more drastic U.S. intervention?

4:08Linda Bilmes:Well, the Cubans have been talking about economic reform for a very long time, and they seem to make one step forward and a couple of steps backward. Perhaps here they're playing for time. On the other hand, they have a humanitarian crisis on their hands. It's been – it's really the worst I think we've seen since the beginning of the revolution. I think it's worse than the special period in the early 1990s, which I witnessed personally. Maybe they're more serious now about economic reforms, but I haven't heard any of them talk about significant political changes.

4:54Jeffrey DeLaurentis:All right. If President Trump tries to remove Cuba's president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, like he did in Venezuela, what do you imagine the consequences would be?

5:05Linda Bilmes:Yeah, it's a good question. And if you're talking about some sort of military extraction, I think that to me feels like, so far anyway, a remote possibility. So I think we're just going to have to see.

5:21Jeffrey DeLaurentis:There's been reporting that the Trump administration is considering various wealthy Republican donors who have Cuban ancestry for potential leadership roles in Havana. What's your reaction to that?

5:35Linda Bilmes:Yeah, I think one of the problems here and one of the reasons the administration began on the, let's say, economic side of the ledger was because they were looking for a more gradualist reform that would take place slowly, step by step, because they don't want the country to collapse. there's not some large opposition group as there is in Venezuela in waiting. So I'm sure they've been talking to folks in South Florida, but I just don't see how all that would unfold. And I also have to say, particularly with respect to the oil blockade now, using humanitarian suffering as a tool for political change, I find really not only uncomfortable, but not the United States that I know.

6:29Linda Bilmes:And that's not going to be a strategy to win the hearts and minds of the Cuban people.

6:35Jeffrey DeLaurentis:Well, the current Cuban government has been in power for more than 60 years now. Do you think that it can survive the current crisis?

6:44Linda Bilmes:I think we'll have to see. And I would say, if you put Venezuela and Cuba and Iran on a sort of scale of degree of difficulty, Venezuela is the easiest, Iran the hardest, I would kind of put Cuba in the middle. So it's going to be much more complicated than the Venezuela operation and plan went.

7:08Jeffrey DeLaurentis:Ambassador Jeffrey De Laurentiis was the top U.S. diplomat in Cuba from 2015 to 2017. Thank you so much for joining us.

7:16Linda Bilmes:Thank you.

7:21Linda Bilmes:Well, speaking of complicated attempts at regime change, American military costs are mounting in Iran. After the break, Indira asks, Just how big a tab are we running up? Thank you.

8:04Jeffrey DeLaurentis:life insurance policy. Life insurance is never cheaper than it is today. Get the right life insurance for you for less and save more than 50 % at selectquote.com slash anytime. That's selectquote.com slash anytime. President Trump said today the U.S. and Iran are having, quote, very strong talks toward ending the war, a claim that Iran rejected. And as the war enters its fourth week, it's already costing the U.S. tens of billions of dollars. The Pentagon reportedly told Congress in closed session that the first six days of the war cost more than$11 billion. So where is all that money going? And what are the long-term costs of this war to our economy and the national debt?

8:49Jeffrey DeLaurentis:Linda Bilmes is a professor of public finance at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. Her forthcoming book is called The Ghost Budget, Paying for America's Wars. Linda, welcome. Thank you. Linda, you predicted in a recent op-ed for the Boston Globe that the price tag for this war could reach$50 billion or more. What is all that money being spent on? Well, the$50 billion has already been eclipsed by the fact that the administration is asking for$200 billion for immediate costs. And that is to pay for the very, very rapid pace of consuming munitions as well as planes, fuels, and a wide range of missiles, bombs, mines, torpedoes, et cetera, that we are using in these wars.

9:36Jeffrey DeLaurentis:But also, this is related to the fact that the president had already, prior to this war, asked for a 50 percent for a$500 billion increase in the defense budget, which is unprecedented. That's a higher increase than we've seen any times since 1951 percentage-wise, since during the Korean War, right? It is, but during the Korean War, taxes were also raised, top taxes, to 92 percent by President Truman to pay for that. This time, this is being requested with no mechanism to pay for it apart from more borrowing. Even though we're being told that the war is now costing us about a billion dollars a day, that there are hidden costs that might actually double that to$2 billion a day.

10:23Jeffrey DeLaurentis:And you're saying that there are all sorts of hidden costs we're not thinking of, which is equipment replacement down the line. What are some of the other hidden costs we may be missing in this current war? Well, two major costs that we are missing that are long-term costs are, one, paying for disability benefits in medical care for those who are currently serving, who will become veterans. We know from previous wars that veterans cost peak a long time after the war. Just to give you an example, the 1991 Gulf War, which was a short six-week war, 37 percent of those who served currently receive lifetime benefits.

11:04Jeffrey DeLaurentis:There are hundreds of billions of dollars over their lifetime of cost that will be incurred. This war is being financed with borrowing at a time when the national debt is already$39 trillion. Explain to us the long-term consequences of all that debt and borrowing. Well, this is a very interesting question, and it's the subject of my forthcoming book, because starting after 9-11, we changed the way we paid for war. We used to pay for wars through higher taxes and reduced non-war spending. But we have now, since 9-11, cut taxes four times and increased non-war spending. So this war is following this same pattern that we are paying for everything in Iran and paid for all of the pre-war costs through debt.

11:57And debt, of course, means that we have to pay interest on the debt. And we still have to figure out a way to pay that debt back.

12:07Jeffrey DeLaurentis:But right now what we have done is just transferred the cost of these wars to our kids and our grandchildren. Well, let me ask you, George W. Bush, when he was president, said the Iraq war would cost$40 billion. You wrote a book with economist Joseph Stiglitz on how that price tag ballooned. Current estimates of that eight-plus-year war are that it cost us American taxpayers$8 trillion. Why did it end up costing so much more than we were told? Well, I think that historically, those who get into wars typically underestimate both the duration and the cost. And the Iraq and Afghanistan wars were extremely expensive, both in terms of operations, the personnel on the ground, the amount of weaponry and reset, and the very, very significant costs of caring for the veterans for those wars.

13:03Jeffrey DeLaurentis:If we think just about veterans' costs, if you look at the financial statements of the United States, we currently owe, just in disability benefits to veterans of previous wars, more than$7 trillion. And these are costs that are never considered at the outset. Last question, Linda. We're already seeing gas prices going up dramatically with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, what are the other ways in which this war could impact the global economy? There are huge economic costs that will dwarf the budgetary costs, but it's too early to put a price tag on them. But the impact on energy costs, shipping costs, insurance costs, for example, the United States has just opened a$20 billion reinsurance facility.

13:51Jeffrey DeLaurentis:All of these costs are going to be enormous. Linda Bilmes is a professor of public finance at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Her upcoming book is called The Ghost Budget, Paying for America's Wars. Linda, thank you so much. Thank you very much, Indira.

14:11Linda Bilmes:We've got one more story for you on today's show. Coming up, a man who once deported immigrants for a living now helps them fight their cases. Peter O'Dowd has that story in just a minute.

14:36Eric O'Denius:This message comes from Babbel. Babbel's conversation-based language technique teaches you useful words and phrases to get you speaking quickly about the things you actually talk about in the real world. With lessons handcrafted by over 200 language experts and voiced by real native speakers. Start speaking with Babbel today. Get up to 55 % off your Babbel subscription right now at babbel.com slash NPR. Spelled B-A-B-B-E-L dot com slash NPR. Rules and restrictions may apply.

15:10Linda Bilmes:For more than two decades, Eric Odenius works on immigration enforcement at the Department of Homeland Security. He started out as a van driver, taking detainees to their deportation flights. Later, he worked as a security guard in an immigration court and a deportation officer interviewing detainees in prisons and jails. Now, he's working with many of the same kinds of cases, but from the other side. He's a paralegal assisting immigration attorneys whose clients are caught up in deportation proceedings. Eric Odenius is with me now. He's from a suburb of Minneapolis. Eric, good to speak with you.

15:46Linda Bilmes:My pleasure. I want to walk people through the trajectory of your career in immigration enforcement. How did you start out working for the federal government and what kind of work were you doing?

15:55Eric O'Denius:Well, it was basically the immigration equivalent of a U.S. marshal. I was taking them to flights, but I was also taking them to immigration court or if they had to see a doctor or some kind of specialist or, you know, transfer to another district because their proceedings were out of state, anything like that. Whatever it was, I was basically the person who made it happen.

16:19Linda Bilmes:How did you feel philosophically about the job? Did you feel that immigration agents like you were doing important work, keeping the borders secure, or was it just a job?

16:29Eric O'Denius:No, it was very important. You're a sworn officer. And when you're on the job, politics is out. You're not political anything. Congress sets the law. You are applying the facts to a given situation and you are predicting an outcome. and you take that recommendation up to your chain of command or to the attorneys at the office of chief counsel, and they ultimately make the final decision. You're just the guy who's gathering the facts and making the recommendation. It really is kind of like Dragnet, you know, where Jack Webb says just the facts. That's basically what it is.

17:08Linda Bilmes:You've got this really fascinating 360-degree view of a complicated issue because you spent so many years helping in one way or another deport people. Now you're kind of trying to help them stay as a paralegal. What made you decide to make this pretty profound switch?

17:28Eric O'Denius:One phrase of wisdom that I heard when I went the first time I went to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals is that it's all about jurisdiction. Either you've got it or you don't. If the person in front of me turns out to be a U.S. citizen, the immigration rules don't apply to him, and we shouldn't be involved with him at all. And until I'm satisfied that my jurisdiction does or does not exist, I have to continue to research the issue until I'm satisfied that, yes, we can proceed or no, we shouldn't. And that was kind of the rule I tried to live by. Should we even be involved in a particular case.

18:06Eric O'Denius:Is there good reason to do something one way rather than the other? And that's what really kind of piqued my interest and trying to figure out the conflict of laws, what takes precedence. It's really, it's quite fascinating.

18:23Linda Bilmes:I want to get your thoughts on the tactics that ICE and Border Patrol agents have been using during the first year of President Trump's second term. We've all seen what happened in your home state of Minnesota earlier this year. You live in a suburb of Minneapolis. Two U.S. citizens killed, violence against protesters, detaining children. Did all that hit close to home to you?