Netanyahu, Trump and what comes next in Iran

0:04There is a big question as to whether the maximum Iran is prepared to offer will meet the minimum that President Trump is prepared to accept. And that really comes down to one person, and that's Donald Trump. Talks between Iran and the U.S. have brought Israel's prime minister back to the White House.

0:32It's Wednesday, February 11th, and this is Here and Now, Anytime from NPR and WVUR. I'm Chris Bentley.

0:41A little later on the show, we'll hear how the Trump administration is further deregulating greenhouse gases, making it easier for companies to spew climate pollution. The reason they're doing this was telegraphed in so-called Project 2025 to basically dismantle environmental protections in the U.S. as a gift to industry and to put their thumb on the wrong side of the scale. Expect a Supreme Court case on the endangerment finding before Trump's term ends. But first, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington today for his seventh meeting with President Trump in the last year. The Israeli leader wants to influence any deal that involves Iran.

1:29The U.S. and Iran are negotiating through intermediaries amid an American military buildup in the Middle East, and fallout over Iran's violent crackdown on protests that killed thousands, according to human rights groups. Israel and the U.S. bombed Iran last year, and they've threatened to attack again if there's no deal. For some commentary, we called up Jake Sullivan, a national security advisor to President Biden, who was involved in years of talks that resulted in a nuclear deal with Iran under President Obama. That's the 2015 deal that President Trump ripped up when he was first elected. Here's Jake Sullivan's conversation with Indira Bakshmanan.

2:12Ali Larajani, Iran's top security official, is in Oman for talks aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program and staving off a U.S. attack that President Trump has threatened. What do we know about the progress of those talks? Well, we can't be certain because I think both sides are posturing in public. But what it appears is that the Iranians are prepared to make limited concessions on their nuclear program. For example, potentially shipping out some of the highly enriched uranium stockpile that is still in their country. but they're not prepared to do the bigger deal that a lot of people are telling President Trump is necessary on issues like missiles, support for terrorist proxies across the region, and other things.

2:59So I think there is a big question as to whether the maximum Iran is prepared to offer will meet the minimum that President Trump is prepared to accept. And that really comes down to one person, and that's Donald Trump. Well, what does Prime Minister Netanyahu want from President Trump on this visit? Ali Larajani has accused Israel of potentially playing a destructive role in trying to sabotage talks. I think Prime Minister Netanyahu is mainly coming to say, Mr. President, do not settle for something limited or partial. Ask for the moon. And if you don't get it, then take military action. And the question really is, would President Trump prefer some diplomatic progress, even if it doesn't involve getting everything the United States wants from Iran?

3:46Or is President Trump prepared to actually take military action for the second time? Obviously, the United States bombed Iran last summer. I think an important thing that's kind of getting obscured a bit, the reason that we find ourselves in this position right now is President Trump actually said that if Iran killed protesters, he would take action against them. So there's still this open question about the red line that President Trump drew and what, if anything, he's going to do about that. Netanyahu, as you know much better than we all do, has a lot of experience with U.S. presidents. And he has pressured a succession of U.S.

4:23presidents to act more forcefully against Iran. So I want to ask you, does Israel effectively have veto power over any conceivable deal that Trump might agree to, but that Israel doesn't want? I don't believe they do have veto power, no. I mean, they didn't have veto power in previous administrations. They were strongly against the Iran nuclear deal that went forward anyway. And I think if President Trump determines that he doesn't think military action against Iran is wise, he won't do it. The interesting thing to me is I believe that there's an increasing number of voices in Israel around Prime Minister Netanyahu and actually believes regime change is a possibility here.

5:03I myself am highly doubtful of trying to effectuate regime change by bombing a country, but these kind of voices are growing in and around the Israeli prime minister, and I'll be interested in the extent to which he makes the case to President Trump. Now is the moment to strike, not just because of the nuclear program, but because we could actually change the regime in Iran. And so to clarify, do you think it would be a right time to strike in hopes of regime change, or you just think that's a bad idea full stop? I think it would be a mistake for the United States of America to embark on a military bombing campaign of Iran with the goal of changing its regime.

5:40I also believe that the only way you can effectively deal with Iran's nuclear program is actually through a deal. Remember, last year we bombed Iran alongside Israel, and President Trump at the end of it said, The Iranian nuclear program has been totally obliterated. And many of us came out and said, well, hold on now. Has it actually been totally obliterated? They still have a stockpile. They still have centrifuges. They still have scientists. Now here we are, and we're talking again about Iran's nuclear program, which obviously wasn't totally obliterated. And if all we do is just take military action to try to deal with their nuclear program, we'll be back here again and again.

6:16The right way to deal with this program is to lock it in a box through a long-term negotiated deal that can be verified. And I think that that is what the outcome of Oman should produce. Whether it will produce that outcome is a totally different question because I think the possibility of military action remains very real. You were involved in secret meetings with Iranian officials dating back to 2013 that set up a framework for two and a half years of talks that I covered, traveling with Secretary of State John Kerry back and forth and back and forth to Switzerland and Vienna that paved the way for the 2015 nuclear deal.

6:55You have talked with so many Iranian negotiators over the years. You also know Netanyahu well. You've met him many, many times. Do you think that there is any conceivable deal that Iran, Israel, and the U.S. could agree on with the conditions we have now? I don't think so. I don't think that Israel, even though at times it says, you know, we just want a better deal, I don't think this Israeli government would support any deal with the Iranian regime short of just abject surrender. So Israel just expanded its control of the West Bank, including areas administered by the Palestinian Authority, reportedly in violation of the Oslo Accords.

7:38Yesterday, President Trump told Axios that he is against annexation of the West Bank. Is part of Netanyahu's reason for being here to win Trump's support for expanded Jewish settlements in the West Bank? I would not be surprised if Prime Minister Netanyahu makes the case for that. My guess is that the number one agenda item will be the Iran issue because I think Prime Minister Netanyahu is nervous, is worried about watching these talks unfold, this diplomacy unfold between the U.S. and Iran. But I think he's going to make his case, his quite extreme case on Israeli activity in the West Bank. Jake Sullivan was President Joe Biden's national security advisor.

8:19He's now a professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and co-hosts the podcast The Long Game. Jake, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you for having me.

8:41Coming up next, an overwhelming majority of the world's scientists determined decades ago that humans burning fossil fuels was causing global warming. Many people have seen the effects of climate change firsthand in the years since then. And in 2009, the EPA recognized those heat-trapping greenhouse gases were endangering human health. That's the legal basis for climate regulations on everything from cars to power plants. And now the Trump administration is about to undo it. Indira has more after this short break.

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10:03No other organ brings together science and spirituality quite like the human brain. Our thinking is very different from what we have imagined. Studies about the brain are, at heart, studies about ourselves. So why, even after centuries of research, has the brain still remained such a stubborn and elusive mystery? I'm Meghna Chakrabarty. Listen to On Point for our special series, Brainwaves, wherever you get your podcasts.

10:32The Trump administration is deregulating greenhouse gases that scientists have determined are hazardous to human health and well-being. Starting tomorrow, the Environmental Protection Agency will no longer regulate pollutants from fossil fuels such as methane and carbon dioxide under the Clean Air Act. That will loosen emission standards for cars, trucks, and fossil fuel companies. Let's bring in scientist Michael Mann to help us understand the impact. He's a climatologist and geophysicist at the University of Pennsylvania. His most recent book is Science Under Siege, How to Fight the Five Most Powerful Forces That Threaten Our World.

11:08Welcome, Michael. Thanks. It's good to be with you. So the Trump administration is repealing a scientific finding that allows the government to restrict climate pollution. Let's listen to White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt speaking to reporters about this yesterday. This will be the largest deregulatory action in American history, and it will save the American people$1.3 trillion in crushing regulations. So explain to us why is the Trump administration doing this and what are they referring to when they say it's going to save$1.3 trillion? Yeah, well, they're making that up out of thin air.

11:46The reality is that climate change and the emission of these gases when it comes to water pollution, air pollution, and the climate change that is causing the extreme weather events around the world, billion-dollar disasters, weather disasters that are increasing because of the warming of the planet from the burning of fossil fuels. What will cost us dearly is failing to regulate these carbon emissions. And the reason they're doing this, it was telegraphed in so-called Project 2025 to basically dismantle environmental protections in the U.S. as a gift to industry. and to put their thumb on the wrong side of the scale to provide incentives for additional fossil fuel energy infrastructure that is behind the warming of the planet and the damage it's causing.

12:38So this so-called endangerment finding from 2009 came out of a Supreme Court ruling during the George W. Bush administration that mandated that the EPA regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. Explain to us what are the health risks that we face from removing these restrictions on pollutants. By some estimates, 25 % of all premature deaths are caused by the pollution, the water and air pollution from fossil fuel burning, added, of course, to the detrimental impacts of climate change. And people are going to suffer, people are going to die because of these actions by the current administration.

13:19Now, just last September, the National Academies of Science released a report reviewing the health threats from greenhouse gas emissions, and they said that this so-called endangerment finding has stood the test of time. My question is, the U.S. is the largest emitter of man-made climate pollution. So what is the signal to the world if our federal government repeals this and says, go for it, emit that climate pollution, even if it causes damage to human health? Yeah, well, it sends a terrible message, of course, to the rest of the world. As you said, we are the world's largest legacy polluter.

13:55We've put more carbon pollution into the atmosphere than any other country. Now, with the rise of China and India and their energy economy, they are now catching up. But we have put more planetary warming gases into the atmosphere, pollution into the atmosphere, than any other country. And that means that we have to lead on this issue. And when we do lead, and we saw that under the Obama administration and the Biden administration, when we lead, we see that other countries come to the table. So, Michael, transportation is the largest source of direct greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. Now that this is going to be deregulated, what is that going to mean for the pollution that comes from cars and trucks, from vehicle emissions?

14:39Yeah, transportation in the U.S. is our largest source of carbon emissions. And we are basically going backward, right? Changing fuel efficiency standards and removing the main instrument that the U.S. government has to restrict the continued emission of planet warming carbon pollution. And so this is a gift to the auto industry. It's a gift to, in particular, the fossil fuel industry. They gain, at least in the short term, we all lose out in the long term. All right. So let me ask you, what are the legal implications here? This, of course, is all rooted in a Supreme Court finding that's almost 20 years old.

15:28What kind of appeals or legal battle do you foresee? Yeah, I think we can expect to see this challenged fiercely by environmental groups, non-governmental organizations. Of course, we have a Supreme Court with a different composition of the Supreme Court that originally recognized the endangerment finding. And so, you know, it may be more of a challenge for environmentalists to win in court. On the other hand, the fossil fuel industry itself is a little bit worried about this because of the legal exposure. If there's no federal regulation of carbon emissions, then suddenly they may be more prone to state-level lawsuits for the damage that they've caused.

16:08The one thing that has restricted that was the fact that there was federal policy. In the absence of federal policy, they're vulnerable to lawsuits brought by states for the damage that they've caused. Michael Mann is director of the Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. His most recent book is Science Under Siege, How to Fight the Five Most Powerful Forces That Threaten Our World. Michael, thank you for joining us. Thank you so much.

16:45Well, whatever happens in Washington, the atmosphere is indeed still warming. Last week, the International Olympic Committee said it might move up the start date for future winter games to January from February. because of rising temperatures. There is still snow for now in Italy, thankfully, and after the break, we'll get an update from the Olympics. Stick around.

17:16Have you been watching the Winter Olympics in Milan, Cortina? There's been something for everyone in the games so far, whether you're up on the latest figure skating drama or still learning what half the sports even are, like NBC's beloved correspondent Snoop Dogg. Earlier today, Robin Young got an update from reporter Steve Futterman, who is in Italy, where the games got underway on Friday. Figure skating, the back-flicking quad god Ilya Malinin, regrouped a little after the team competition. This is his first Olympics, and now he's topped the leaderboard going into Friday's free skate. Just how's he looking and remind us who he's facing?

17:54Well, I mean, his His biggest competition is himself. If he does what he's able to do, there's no one better in the world right now, and it's not even close. In the short skate program last night, he had the best score by five points. Five points may not sound like a lot in football, in figure skating. It's an enormous margin. So if he can perform like he's capable of, he's going to probably easily win. He is going to perform on Friday, we think six or seven quads. he may perform one jump that's never been done successfully in the Olympics before. So again, he is the overwhelming favorite. I think everyone feels he is clearly the best in the world.

18:38But just because you're the best in the world doesn't mean you win every single competition. Still has to skate, but he is quite a dominant skater. And he's really transforming the sport. I mean, he's not just a great skater. He is a transitional skater. He is changing the sport, and you're going to see more quads performed in the years ahead than we've ever seen before. Well, and more like freeform. He's like jazz on ice. But we want to stay with ice and the Team USA and all eyes and hearts, I think, over with Max Naumov, who lost both of his parents in last year's plane crash. Remember that?

19:15He won a bronze at the U.S. Figure Skating Championships just last month, which was stunning to see him get out there. But what's the thinking here? uh he's probably not going to be challenging for a medal uh he's back in the back of the pack right now but just the fact that he's here just the fact that he's made it to the free skate uh it's just a remarkable i think achievement and i think you feel inside the arena that everyone is rooting for him it's not just the fact that he's there i think everyone has a bit of their heart tugging for him right now. Last night on the scoreboard, they had a quote where he thanked his parents in the kiss and cry area.

19:54That's where the skaters go, where they watch the scores. The joke is they either kiss or they cry, depending on what the score is. But he was quite emotional, holding up a picture of himself as a youngster. So it's very touching. It reminds us all of what happened to the team, his teammates who were killed, that horrible crash and how he was affected. But again, if there's anyone I think that everyone's rooting for with their hearts, it's him. You can hear the rest of that conversation at hereandnow.org. And there's lots more on the Olympics at npr.org, including profiles of the couples of ice dancing to America's Gen Z curlers.

20:38And make sure you're following this podcast wherever you're listening to us right now so you get all of our episodes. We'll have more Olympics coverage to come. But that'll do it for today's show. Here and Now Anytime comes from NPR and WBUR Boston. Today's stories were produced by Jill Ryan, Lynn Mennegan, and Jenna Griffiths. Our editors were Todd Munt, Michael Scotto, and Kat Welch. Technical direction from Marcel Damiano and Andre Peralta. Our theme music is by Mike Moschetto, Max Liebman, and me, Chris Bentley Our digital producers are Alison Hagen and Grace Griffin And here at NOW's executive producer is Alan Price Thanks for listening We'll be back with you tomorrow