The cost of war with Iran

0:00Negar Mortazavi:Support for Here and Now Anytime comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software for technical computing and model-based design. MathWorks, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science. Learn more at mathworks.com. WBUR Podcasts, Boston.

0:25Mark Cancian:This stuff does happen. You have to determine what took place, why did it take place, and how do you minimize the risks of it happening in the future.

0:33David Petraeus:There is more evidence that it was an American missile that blew up a girls' school in Iran.

0:49David Petraeus:Today is Monday, March 9th, and this is Here and Now, Anytime from NPR and WBUR. I'm Chris Bentley. Today on the show, who is Iran's new commander-in-chief? And what does his rise mean for the war launched by the U.S. and Israel? Also, a little more than a week of war in the Middle East has already shocked the global economy. Each day also costs American taxpayers directly to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.

1:17Mark Cancian:The largest expense has been the munitions. We used high-end missiles to beat down what was left of Iranian air defenses.

1:26David Petraeus:When a single missile can cost up to$4 million, you ran up a tab pretty fast. Before we crunch those numbers, though, the real cost of war is in lives, not dollars. A seventh member of the American military has now died in the war, one of more than a thousand people killed in the region, according to the Red Crescent, since Israel and the U.S. launched attacks nine days ago. Most of the dead are Iranian. Israeli airstrikes on oil tanks and refineries over the weekend poisoned the air over Iran's capital, Tehran, turning the sky and rain black. Meanwhile, there's more evidence it was an American attack that blew up the Minab Girls School in southern Iran in the first hours of the war, killing 175 civilians, mostly children.

2:19David Petraeus:Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the U.S. is still investigating. And we are also learning more today about Mujtaba Khamenei, who will succeed his father as Iran's spiritual and political leader and commander-in-chief. The 56-year-old is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated on the first day of the war in a U.S.-Israeli attack that also killed several other family members of the new leader, including his wife and at least one grandkid. Our first guest today is retired Army General David Petraeus, who led the U.S. and Allied forces in the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

2:57David Petraeus:He spoke to Robin Young.

2:59Negar Mortazavi:And can we just quickly get a brief reaction to that video? That does seem further proof that it was the U.S. that struck this school. The U.S. is the only one using those Tomahawk missiles in that area. You're well-versed in the fog of war. What would you advise a president to say now? And what does it mean to you that this school was struck, NPR is reporting, it may have been because of outdated targeting information?

3:24Mark Cancian:Well, having not seen it, having not been aware of what the targeting information was, whether that was mistaken, all you can do in the wake of any of these kinds of situations is try to understand exactly what happened, determine why it happened. And our guidance for dealing with the press was be first with the truth and then come out and be first with the truth. If it was a mistake on our part, we should acknowledge it. If it was determined to be some other, we should point that out and show why it is that we have concluded that it was not our tomahawk. This stuff does happen. When it does happen, again, you have to determine what took place, why did it take place, and how do you prevent it or at least minimize the risks of it happening in the future.

4:09Negar Mortazavi:MATLAB and Simulink software. Okay, to the new leadership. Accelerating the peace of engineering and science. Ayatollah Haminei's son, Mustafa Haminei. Just before that announcement, Iran's more moderate president came out with an apology to Gulf states for Iran's attacks on them. What is the choice of, you know, something that will be a continuation of this repressive regime say to you?

4:31Mark Cancian:So a couple of reactions here. First, the president's statement was seen to be reassuring, and it was certainly well-received, And then right after that, of course, missiles and drones hit infrastructure throughout the Gulf states. So it shows something about which the president has complained in the past, that he has very little power.

4:51Negar Mortazavi:This is the president of Iran, yeah.

4:53Mark Cancian:The president of Iran, Pazeshkin, yeah. And then, of course, the selection of the supreme leader's son, who's not even an ayatollah, by the way. He's a mid-level cleric. And we're going to have to see whether his character is that of his father or not. One would assume, given his own experience and expertise, time with the Revolutionary Guards Corps, time certainly in his father's office, that he would be similarly hardline, ideological, and clerical. But let's wait and see, see what his statements are and so forth. If he is the same as his father, then we're in for a tough situation here. Yeah.

5:37Negar Mortazavi:I've heard you, as well as other military leaders we've had on the program, say that you saw the war at least a week ago as being a tactical success. But I'm wondering how you're feeling about it now. Now, we're hearing a lot about this being a war of attrition, who runs out of weapons first, an asymmetric war, Iran launching relatively cheap drones to draw other countries into using their interceptors to knock them down. And the possibility of boots on the ground not being ruled out. What's your sense today?

6:08Mark Cancian:I think that the military operations have been hugely impressive. They have focused on a number of different targets, the regime leaders, the air and missile defenses, because, again, that allows us to use non-stealthy aircraft in the airspace. That brings in the B-1 and B-52 bombers. And also, of course, going after the regime forces in general, their headquarters, their infrastructure, their logistics bases, and so on. And also, over time, the remnants of the nuclear infrastructure that were so dramatically damaged or destroyed during the 12-day air campaign. So all of this actually, from an offensive standpoint, has gone quite impressively.

6:48Mark Cancian:But clearly, you now have a hardliner. And if he's not going to be willing to negotiate, that is problematic. And I think perhaps the most immediate challenge that I'm sure is being in the subject in the White House today and the central command in the Pentagon is when can we start escorting ships? When can we reestablish freedom of navigation in the Gulf and through the Strait of Hamuz? Noting that at least two countries had to stop producing oil in that region because they're out of storage space. And apparently the Saudis are starting to slow down as well.

7:23Negar Mortazavi:I just have been curious about this. When you led U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, in Iraq, you famously shifted U.S. strategy from consolidating forces on large bases to this population-centric counterinsurgency. approach, working with the people. What can we take from Iraq to apply to Iran, or are they completely apples and oranges?

7:48Mark Cancian:That was a completely different war. We were conducting a counterinsurgency operation against essentially terrorists, extremists, insurgents, and Shia militias supported by Iran. We pulled that country out of a civil war, but that does not bear much resemblance to what we see right now. We are conducting major offensive conventional combat operations. This is a big war. I think the president's right not to rule out anything, including boots on the ground, keep the Iranians guessing, keep the option open if you decide you need it. I mean, there are various options you could actually pursue and might give you considerable leverage without extraordinary risk.

8:29Mark Cancian:But you'd need to think that through very, very carefully. And I actually was a bit relieved, perhaps, to hear the president in a way recognize that even tens of thousands of Iranian Kurds are not going to challenge a million men under arms. So again, I think keeping options open is correct. Obviously, thinking very, very carefully about them before choosing one of them when it comes to putting boots on the ground is also correct.

9:01Negar Mortazavi:What do you think the end looks like?

9:04Mark Cancian:Well, it depends. I think there are a number of indicators that the national security team is watching, you know, the achievement of military objectives in particular. And is there the emergence of serious opposition forces that might lead us to continue a bit longer to give them a chance. We don't see it yet, but watch that space. So I think all of these indicators, the metrics in each of these different areas bears careful watching. And it is they that will determine the decision, I think, for when to cease hostilities from our perspective. Because I really have always thought it ends when President Trump decides that it ends.

9:45Mark Cancian:But I think what will guide that decision or the timing will be these items that are just enumerated.

9:52Negar Mortazavi:Retired Army General, former CIA Director David Petraeus, thank you.

9:56Mark Cancian:Good to be with you again, Robin. Thank you.

10:04David Petraeus:We've got to take a short break now, but Peter O'Dowd will be back in just a minute with more insight into what's happening in the Middle East.

10:17Thank you.

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11:12David Petraeus:Let's bring in Negar Murtazavi. She's senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C., and host of the Iran podcast. Negar, welcome.

11:22Negar Mortazavi:Thank you for having me.

11:23David Petraeus:So there had only been two supreme leaders in Iran's history since the 1979 revolution. What do we know about the man who is now in charge of Iran?

11:31Negar Mortazavi:correct so Murshaba Khameneid is essentially a man who's been in the shadows many Iranians don't even didn't even know what he looked like or never heard from him so this selection is a bit unconventional in that way at least if we compare it to just the two other examples and then one other issue I would say is that his father interestingly was opposed to him becoming the successor because he was worried that this would enact essentially power being handed down from father to son. And he wasn't in favor of his son becoming, but nevertheless, this is the result.

12:11David Petraeus:Right. And so what does it signal to you that the clerics chose the son to take over for the father, even though the father didn't want it?

12:20Negar Mortazavi:So I think this has a lot to do with the circumstances. If there wasn't a war, if the father wasn't assassinated, if this was a natural progression, maybe from natural death or some other form that didn't involve this kind of absolute foreign pressure and intervention, maybe this wouldn't have happened because there were other candidates whose names were in the mix. Some of them were moderates, some of them with more experience, for example, former President Hassan Rouhani and many others. But I think the circumstances of the war, the fact that his father was assassinated, so choosing him shows some form of continuity, essentially, it's a show of defiance to the enemy.

13:00Negar Mortazavi:And, and the fact that the country is in a, in a war time, and they wanted to essentially regroup and put the house back together and, and have someone who can run not just the country, but this war, I think all of these contributed. And then of course, he is close and is supported by the more military security intelligence apparatus in and around those institutions, like the Revolutionary Guards, the ones that are front and center fighting this war against the U.S. and Israel. And this also shows that sort of the consolidation of power of some of these institutions and who we can tell who may be coming on top when this war ends.

13:38David Petraeus:Well, as you say, there were more moderate choices. Do you think that he will rule in the same style as his father, who, as we know, had cracked down violently on dissent and had authorized the murder of thousands of peaceful protesters earlier this year?

13:55Negar Mortazavi:I mean, he comes from the same sort of hardline, whatever we know of him, hardline conservative camp. It's certainly supported by the hardline, more militaristic, that core, the hard core of the Islamic Republic. But I think also, we don't know. This is a new chapter. It literally is a new Khamenei, a new generation. And it's also someone who lost his father, his mother, his wife, one of his children in that bombing, the assassination. It certainly will be a new chapter in the Islamic Republic because his father was ruling based on essentially policies and his own rulings and comments that had over three decades of history behind it.

14:42Negar Mortazavi:Essentially, when you're ruling for that long, sometimes changing a policy is defying your own self, things that you have said, things that you have done, as opposed to if you have a president coming every four years. So I think that, in a way, somewhat limited any form of change with the Islamic Republic because that person was in power for such a long time and was ruling with such rigidity and harshness and essentially violence. So maybe this new chapter will open the door for a shifting of gear, at least some new policies and shifts.

15:13David Petraeus:Do you think it will be a new chapter for the Iranian people? We're noting the reporting the New York Times that after his announcement, the announcement of his succession, there were people shouting death to Mujtaba, you know, from their apartment windows. How do you see that?

15:28Negar Mortazavi:Well, the Iranian society is very polarized, I would say. I mean, we see people on state TV. If you watch Iranian state TV, you see an outpour. you first saw an outpouring of grief. People were on the street grieving right after the assassination, the killing of his father. And then you saw an outpouring of celebration. These are the base of the Islamic Republic, people who support the state. And then on the opposite end is the opposition, a more radical opposition within the society that wants the state and this regime gone with any means. Some of them even support the war, even the bombing of their own homes and cities.