The race to secure Iran's nuclear material

0:00David Albright:Support for Here and Now Anytime comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software for technical computing and model-based design. MathWorks, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science. Learn more at mathworks.com. WBUR Podcasts, Boston.

0:23Fawaz Gerges:Well, I think Lebanon now is in the eye of the storm.

0:29Allison Lang:The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran intensifies. Now Lebanon is in the crosshairs.

0:44Allison Lang:It's Wednesday, March 11th, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WBUR Boston. I'm Shiko Tehuri. Today on the show, Israel launches attacks on Lebanon's capital of Beirut after Hezbollah fired at Israel for killing Iran's supreme leader. So even though Hezbollah's decision to retaliate against the American-Israeli war against Iran was reckless,

1:10Fawaz Gerges:Hezbollah made it very clear in the past 13 months that Israel's continuing attacks on Lebanon will not go unanswered. So here we go again.

1:20Allison Lang:And we get an update on the awe-inspiring performances at the Paralympic Games. But first, the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran appears to be shifting to the Strait of Hormuz. That's the narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of the world's oil. The U.S. military's Central Command said on Wednesday that it could not protect civilians at shipping ports in the wake of recent attacks by Iran. Meanwhile, the Pentagon says 140 American service members have been wounded since the war began. And President Trump is considering sending troops into Iran to secure the country's hidden stockpile of nuclear material that could be used to make weapons.

2:00Allison Lang:Experts say Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to create 10 nuclear warheads. The stockpile was not destroyed in airstrikes last June. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly told Congress that, quote, people are going to have to go and get it. Let's get perspective from David Albright. He's a physicist and weapons expert and the founder of the Institute for Science and International Security. Here's his conversation with Robin Young. You said this in a New York Times opinion piece.

2:29David Albright:It would seem obvious, but why do they have to deal with these canisters? Well, one is it's just as what the IAEA said. It's material that can be further enriched up to weapon-grade uranium and used to make nuclear weapons. And sort of what we call the fissile material, the weapon-grade uranium side, that's the long pole in the tent of making nuclear weapons. And so you don't want to leave Iran with this capability that at a time of its choosing, maybe five years from now, maybe two years from now, they decide to try to make a nuclear weapon. And the world maybe is very different then. Maybe it's half asleep to these kind of threats.

3:12David Albright:So I think it's a residual capability that's too dangerous to leave it alone. Well, also, if the Iranian government, which has been sort of protecting this, is decimated, it could be another group that comes in and get these canisters. That's been pointed out. But in that same Times opinion piece, the writers W.J. Hannigan and Massimo Calabresi conclude, after speaking to experts like yourself, it's no exaggeration to say the future of the region may well depend on whether the U.S., having triggered this crisis, is successful in finding and securing the stockpile. that serious? I think it is. I mean, it's Iran with nuclear weapons with this kind of regime would be very threatening to many in the region and probably would start a whole chain of proliferation in countries like Saudi Arabia, maybe even Turkey.

4:03And the more nuclear powers

4:06David Albright:there are, we know Israel has nuclear weapons, the more unstable it becomes and the bigger chance that nuclear weapons could be used. Plus, if Israel attacked Iran in June of 2025, we're now back at war. Part of the reason we're there is because this stockpile was not addressed. Now, of course, there's a threat of missiles that Israel feels particularly threatened by. But there's also the nuclear question. And I think if we don't settle this now, we will probably end up in another war six months, 12 months, 18 months from now to deal with this issue again. Yeah. Well, we've been mentioning the IAEA, you know, the inspectors, the agency's head, this is Rafael Grossi, has said recently he's not even sure where this enriched uranium is.

4:55David Albright:I mean, that's one of the problems. What are some of the others? Well, he believes that it's probably in the nuclear facilities. he said yesterday that that it half of it is he thinks is under the esfahan mountain the rubble yeah uh but it's well it's an intact facility yeah um and but he's also said he doesn't know that for sure and so you do have to worry that it's been moved um and so you you do need to investigate this right now using intelligence services to try to understand where all this material is. Because as you point out, others could be interested in it. If things become very unstable in Iran, there could be terrorist interests.

5:44David Albright:There could be just capitalist interests. This highly enriched uranium is extremely valuable to some states. And as I said, some terrorist groups. Yeah. By the way, just in case people are listening saying, what? But, you know, this isn't dangerous in its form, or is it? I mean, could somebody bomb it and cause a conflagration? Well, it's in thick canisters, and there's maybe 25 kilograms or up to 25 kilograms per canister. But the material itself is uranium hexafluoride, and the fluorine is extremely toxic. And so if the canisters have been breached and the room is contaminated, you definitely want to be very careful about entering that room.

6:27David Albright:Okay. Well, and the question, you know, that everyone is dancing around is the fact that this would take boots on the ground. Can you explain why? I mean, because we understand it would be troops, but maybe accompanying nuclear experts. I mean, people who know what to do when they find it. And that's feasible if the situation is stable. And the material that we believe is in the Esfam Mountain is a situation where the tunnel entrances were buried by the Iranians. And so a commando raid can't go to the bulldozers and trucks. They're not going to be able to do that. But if the situation is stable where the people going in are protected against essentially a strike from the Iranians, then you can do it.

7:19David Albright:I think what alternative that is, I believe, Israel and the United States are considering is that you really try to destroy these mountain facilities. and then you try to use intelligence methods and then finally negotiating methods to make sure you've gotten it all. David Albright, physicist, weapons expert, founder of the Institute for Science and International Security. We've got a second here. Does this keep you up at night? Yes, it does, actually. This situation does risk getting out of control. Well, we will stay in touch. Thank you very much. Thank you.

8:06Allison Lang:Coming up next, the regional war in the Middle East is now targeting Lebanon. We dig into why after the break.

8:21David Albright:This message comes from Wealthfront. It's time your hard-earned money works harder for you. With Wealthfront's cash account, you earn a competitive APY on your cash from program banks higher than the average savings rate with free, instant withdrawals to eligible accounts. Go to Wealthfront.com. Cash account offered by Wealthfront Brokerage, LLC. Member FINRA SIPC, not a bank. Funds are swept to program banks where they earn the variable annual percentage yield.

8:50Allison Lang:The Israeli defense forces continue attacks on Lebanon. Today, it struck an apartment building in central Beirut, the second strike in the capital since the war began. The UN now says that nearly 700 ,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced from their homes. Israel claims to be targeting Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah is backed by Iran and launched drones and missiles at Israel after Israel and the U.S. first attacked Iran. For more on what this escalation could mean for Lebanon, we reached out to Farwa Zergez. He's a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. Here's his conversation with Peter O'Dowd.

9:31David Albright:So there's a long history here between these groups. Most recently, when Hezbollah started attacking Israel from Lebanon to avenge the death of Iran's supreme leader. From your point of view, how serious is this latest round of violence that's displaced now? as we said, 700 ,000 people in Lebanon?

9:48Fawaz Gerges:Well, I think Lebanon now is in the eye of the storm. I think Israel has used Hezbollah's retaliation against the assassination of the Supreme Leader in Iran as a justification to launch all-out war against Hezbollah. What we need to remind your listeners is that since the ceasefire was signed more than a year ago, Israel kept attacking Lebanon on almost daily basis. Israel occupies five major hills in southern Lebanon. Israel violates Lebanon's sovereignty on daily basis. Since the ceasefire was signed more than 13 months ago, Israel has killed hundreds of Lebanese and injured more than a couple of thousand Lebanese.

10:38Fawaz Gerges:So even though Hezbollah's decision to retaliate against the American-Israeli war against Iran was reckless, and Hezbollah's decision did not take into account the human and the political and economic costs of Israel's retaliation, Hezbollah made it very clear in the past 13 months that Israel's continuing attacks on Lebanon will not go on onset. So here we go again.

11:04David Albright:In this ceasefire you're referring to, 2024, there was a similar eruption of violence between Israel and Hezbollah related to the war in Gaza. What I want to ask you about now is Lebanon's response to this conflict, because after Hezbollah started attacking Israel, the government of Lebanon made some pretty major steps saying Hezbollah's military campaign was illegal. Tell us about that and why that is such a significant step.

11:35Fawaz Gerges:Well, the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, and the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, are very angry with Hezbollah because Hezbollah's decision to retaliate was not really, the Lebanese government was not consulted. And the Lebanese president made it very clear that the decision by Hezbollah to retaliate risks basically all out war by Israel against Lebanon. And the Lebanese government has decided now to ban Hezbollah's military and operational activities in Lebanon. There is a real danger of domestic instability and even civil strife if the Lebanese government decides to really try to act and ban Hezbollah's military activities, because Hezbollah is a major power in the sense that even though its capabilities were degraded during the 2024 war with Israel, it continues to have major operational and military capacity as the last few days, you know, have shown.

12:46Fawaz Gerges:Even Israeli leaders are surprised and shocked by the ability of Hezbollah to really respond to Israel's attack and fire missiles at the very heart of Israel's military bases in Israel and also on the Lebanese-Israeli borders.

13:03David Albright:So you're saying that the military power is still quite strong. What about Hezbollah's political power? It has a major network of social services and schools and health care facilities. I mean, my understanding over the years has been that Hezbollah kind of de facto was the government. Is that changing? Is public opinion turning against the group?

13:24Fawaz Gerges:Well, I mean, I think what we need to understand is that Hezbollah is deeply embedded in a very massive social and political context in Lebanon. Hezbollah has the support of almost two million citizens in Lebanon, who basically mainly the Shiite community in Lebanon. I think what we have seen in the past one year or so is the decline of Hezbollah's popularity in Lebanon, particularly among the Christian communities and the Sunni communities. But I would argue that its base of support within the Shiite community remains very strong. So Hezbollah is not just a, you might say, a military organization.

14:07Fawaz Gerges:Hezbollah is a major political and social movement in Lebanon. And that's why any kind of clashes between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah could really trigger civil strife. And that's why the Lebanese government is very cautious and very concerned about any major confrontation with Hezbollah.

14:27David Albright:Yeah, Lebanon is asking for direct talks now with Israel to end the fighting. I'm curious if Lebanon is strong enough to root out Hezbollah without sparking a civil war, the kind that you mentioned. I think you're making it sound, your question is that somehow this is really Hezbollah versus the Lebanese government and Israel versus Hezbollah.

14:49Fawaz Gerges:What we need to understand is that Israel has been striking Lebanon nonstop since the ceasefire in 2024. The Lebanese authorities have urged the U.S. government and the French government to basically convince the Israeli government to stop its attack on Lebanon, to pull out of its occupation zones in Lebanon. And the Lebanese government have promised that if Israel basically discontinues its attacks and pulls out of Lebanon, the Lebanese government will move forward and try to basically disarm Hezbollah. In fact, Hezbollah said, quote unquote, all along that Hezbollah is willing to basically come to an understanding with the government, but only when Israel stops violating Lebanon's sovereignty and only when Israel pulls out of southern Lebanon.

15:45Fawaz Gerges:So far, we have not really seen any major American intervention. We have not really seen any major change. I doubted very much whether President Trump or his administration will basically try to pressure Israel to stop its attacks on Lebanon. And final point on this, what I fear is that what Israel is trying to do is to really force the Lebanese government to basically move against Hezbollah, triggering civil strife in Lebanon, because in Israel's point of view, that's the only way it would really deliver a fatal blow to Hezbollah. So considering what you just said, do you see any viable off-ramp to end this war,

16:27David Albright:either the war directly in Iran or the one that is spread now across the Middle East?

16:32Fawaz Gerges:The American-Israeli attacks on Iran are no longer a limited war against Iran. Now you have a region-wide conflict, not just between Iran and the United States and Israel, but also in the Gulf, in Lebanon and Iraq. I would not be surprised if the Houthis in Yemen do not join the war in the next few hours and next few days, point one. Point two, even if the war in Iran ends, Israel will not end its war in Lebanon. Israel now has a justification from its point of view to really move against Hezbollah, launching a massive, you know, ground attack in order to deliver a fatal blow against Hezbollah.

17:14And in this particular sense, in fact, what I fear the most is that Lebanon now is in

17:20Fawaz Gerges:the eye of the storm. And the massive, as you said, it's a massive humanitarian situation. Israel is punishing the entire population of South Lebanon, of the Beqa Valley, of the So sadly for Lebanon, it seems to me that Lebanon is basically pressed between a rock, the rock of Hezbollah's unwillingness to disarm and a harder place, Israel's decision to really launch all-out war in order to weaken and defeat Hezbollah.

17:56David Albright:Fawaz Zerjez is professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, author of The Great Betrayal, The Struggle for Freedom and Democracy in the Middle East. Professor, thank you so much for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you.

18:19Allison Lang:Coming up, a cross-country skier snags her third gold medal, making her the most decorated American winter Paralympian. Details after the break.

18:34David Albright:This message comes from Wealthfront. It's time your hard-earned money works harder for you. With Wealthfront's cash account, you earn a competitive APY on your cash from program banks higher than the average savings rate with free instant withdrawals to eligible accounts. Go to Wealthfront.com. Cash account offered by Wealthfront Brokerage, LLC. Member FINRA SIPC, not a bank. Funds are swept to program banks where they earn the variable annual percentage yield.

19:03Allison Lang:It's day five of the Paralympics. So we called up CBC Sports Digital host and bronze medal winning Paralympian Allison Lang to break down the latest highlights with Robin.

19:14David Albright:I have to apologize in advance, but I'm going to start by asking about hockey. And it may be sensitive. The U.S., you know, had two gold medal wins in the Olympics after beating Canada in both men's and women's finals. So sorry. but how are the U.S. and Canadian hockey teams faring in the Paralympics?

19:28Allison Lang:Yeah, that is a fair question. You know us Canadians. We love our hockey, and both Canada and the USA are undefeated in this tournament so far, and both play in their semifinal this Friday, Canada versus China and USA versus Czechia. And if both win, it will be another Canada versus USA gold medal showdown, of course, similar to the Olympic Games. You did win, but the Paralympics are hoping for a third time's the charm for Canada. Revenge.