What does the ceasefire actually say?

0:00Support for Here and Now Anytime comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software, to design and develop engineered systems, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science. Learn more at mathworks.com. WBUR Podcasts, Boston. I think this is coming from what the Iranians believe is a position of strength, and that's because they have control of the Strait of Hormuz.

0:29Holly Dagres:What needs to happen in peace talks between the U.S., Iran, and Israel? Well, first they need to settle on what the ceasefire they agreed to actually means.

0:48Holly Dagres:It's Thursday, April 9th, and this is Here and Now, Anytime from NPR and WVWR. I'm Chris Bentley.

0:57Holly Dagres:Today on the show, Iran says its ceasefire deal with the U.S. and Israel includes Lebanon, which Israeli forces invaded and have been heavily bombing since shortly after they and the U.S. attacked Iran. But yesterday, Israel bombed civilian areas of Lebanon anyway. Chaos was unleashed across the country and in Beirut with what the Israeli military said were over 100 strikes conducted across the country and including in Beirut in densely populated residential areas. Also casting doubt on claims of a ceasefire is what's happening, or not happening, in the Strait of Hormuz, which President Trump claimed was open, but appears still to have relatively little ship traffic.

1:39Holly Dagres:So is the Strait of Hormuz open or not? And who's going to control it going forward? All that coming up in a few minutes. But first, how is Iran thinking about all this. Holly Dagras grew up partly in Tehran. She's now with the Washington Institute for Middle East Policy. And she told Indira Lakshmanon that despite condemning Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon, Iran is still planning to attend talks in Pakistan this weekend. Well, I think for all of us, we're still trying to make sense of what the ceasefire is. We heard from Vice President J.D. Vance, I believe yesterday, saying there were three versions floating around.

2:18And the prime minister of Pakistan is saying Lebanon's occluded. And as the earlier reporting was noting, that the Iranians also think the same thing. And so I think there's going to be a lot of misunderstanding about what version of the ceasefire that they're going to be agreeing to. And I think that it looks more likely than not that the Iranians are going to be double downing on the, especially on the nuclear issue and ballistic missiles, which are the red line. And it was clear because the English version that they had put out is different from the Persian version, which included that Iran could still enrich uranium.

2:59So I think that that's what I'm going to be looking at very closely to see how the talks pan out in Islamabad on Friday. Well, to your point about Lebanon, both Iran and Pakistan have said that Israel's attacks on Lebanon violate the terms of the two-week ceasefire deal that they made with the U.S. But the White House, meanwhile, is backing Israel, who says that Lebanon was not part of the deal. So Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, put it starkly. He said the U.S. must choose ceasefire or continued war via Israel. So given that, how do you expect they can even resolve that point before they get to the dispute over the 10-point proposal that Iran has versus the U.S.'s own demands?

3:43Well, there's a couple of things there. First, it's not that if we are to agree with the current text that the prime minister in Pakistan put out on social media the other day, then the Iranians are also violating it. They've been attacking countless Arab neighbors. They've been attacking Israel. And so there's technically two violators, if we're going to put it in those standards. But I think that the way that Foreign Minister Abbas Arochch was talking, where he would say there's either going to be a ceasefire or not if Lebanon's not included, I think this is coming from what the Iranians believe is a position of strength.

4:18And that's because they have control of the Strait of Hormuz. And they recognize that this is a real port and pressure lever that they can utilize in this moment, given the situation of the oil prices, given that there are all these shipments that are stuck related to fertilizer and global food prices and farming and so on. And so I think that they believe that between that and the fact that the Islamic Republic has survived as a regime, granted it's a rump regime that's more hardline and repressive and unfortunately not in the benefit of the Iranian people, that they feel that they can use these pressure valves to make these pushback on the ceasefire in different ways, including on the topic of Lebanon.

5:03Well, you make the important point that both Israel and Iran appear to be violating what the other side felt were the terms of the ceasefire. There's also been a lot of international backlash against Israel's big attacks on Lebanon yesterday in which more than 200 Lebanese were killed and many more wounded. Today, however, the ceasefire appears to be holding, and there are some vessels that are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. So sort of putting ourselves forward into what needs to happen in talks to get beyond a ceasefire towards an end of the war, I want to ask you, you know, is anybody budging?

5:45Is there enough common ground between the U.S., you know, sharp demands and Iran's sharp demands? particularly on the issue of uranium enrichment. You know, and this is to my point earlier, I think this is why the ceasefire has the potential not to hold because I see that the president is doubling down. The Iranians are doubling down. These are two countries that are at war with each other, separate from Israel in this context, and they both believe that they're victorious in this moment. And so when you have people on both sides of the aisle that are thinking like this, I think it really is hard to find common ground.

6:22That being said, there's so many other actors involved. I know that China has played a key role in this, and there's been really concerns as Iran's top oil buyer what this means for China. And they've actually been the ones that have been pushing Tehran to soften their position. Of course, not just Pakistan leading mediation, there's also Egypt, Turkey, we saw Saudi Arabia. So I think given that there's so many other actors and there's so much at stake, there is a possibility to find some middle ground. But from my understanding, if those middle ground issues are no enrichment of uranium, no ballistic missiles, the Iranians are not going to bend the knee for that.

7:02And they will happily fight that out and continue a war because they've lost so much over the years. They've had scientists that were assassinated. They've spent billions of dollars on their nuclear program. And they've had now two wars over these issues. So I just can't imagine the Islamic Republic being like, OK, after all this, we're going to give in to those demands. And I think that that is the mentality that they have. Well, even to get to the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal under the Obama administration, they did not give up enriching uranium. They were just enriching it under supervision with guardrails and inspections and doing it to lower levels for energy, as you point out.

7:45All right, Holly, well, President Trump's rhetoric has swung back and forth between threatening to wipe out Iranian civilization and then hours later saying that there's a workable proposal on the table. Knowing what you know about the Iranian side, what can you tell us about Iran's peace negotiator, Mohammed Bagher-Ghalibov? He was a four-time presidential candidate. He was the police chief and the former mayor of Tehran. And I think arguably he's been wanting this moment for a long time, given that he's been wanting to be president. So I think he finds himself in a position he's been creating for himself for decades now.

8:26And so in some ways, he's an interesting cat and has some commonalities with Trump. And I think that he, I think that in this moment, he has positioned himself in this role. But I think the question is, will he be able to deliver on the Iranian side the demands that the president's asking for? And I just don't see that to be the case. Holly Dagrez is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a specialist on Iran and U.S. relations. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you.

9:06Holly Dagres:We've got to take a quick break, but in just a minute, we'll get a firsthand view from Lebanon. Stick around.

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10:41Holly Dagres:Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today ordered his cabinet to begin direct talks with Lebanon after Iran said Israeli attacks there blatantly violate the ceasefire. Yesterday was the deadliest day in Lebanon since Israel invaded in March. Lebanon's health ministry says Israeli strikes killed more than 200 people in attacks on civilian areas that Israel says included targets with the militant group Hezbollah. There's still widespread fear in central Beirut, Lebanon's capital, where NPR's Lauren Freyer and Jawad Rizkala met with some of the more than one million people who have been displaced in this war.

11:22Holly Dagres:People like Lama Dimashk, a 31-year-old accountant who says she's been sheltering in a vacant building for six weeks. Where you go, there's no more safe place. You don't know when the bomb will come at your head. For more on the unfolding humanitarian crisis, we called up Ramzi Kais. He's a researcher with Human Rights Watch in Beirut. He spoke to Indira Lakshmanan. Yesterday, many people across Lebanon woke up to the news shared in the early morning by Pakistan's prime minister that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement. But a few hours later, a statement issued by Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Yatsenyahu, indicated that that was not the case.

12:03And that became clear in the early hours of the morning with strikes happening in the south. And then with the Israeli military spokesperson issuing the now typical displacement orders calling on people to leave areas south of the Zahrania River in Lebanon, which covers 15 % of Lebanon's territory. And then a few hours later after that, chaos was unleashed across the country and in Beirut with what the Israeli military said were over 100 strikes conducted across the country and including in Beirut in densely populated residential areas. Over 200 people have been killed just in one day. That's over 10 % of all people that have been killed in Lebanon since March 2, since the escalation of the hostilities, were killed in one day yesterday.

12:45People are still stuck under the rubble, and some individuals remain missing. Well, Israeli ground forces have been pushing deeper into southern Lebanon, and this U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that started at the very end of February has become also a war on Hezbollah. You visited southern Lebanon last week. What did you see? What's going on on the humanitarian side because of these attacks? When I was in South Lebanon, we met with hospital officials, with local authorities, with paramedics and displaced people. And they all described to us how the Israeli strikes on bridges across the Letani River, which is the river that separates parts of southern Lebanon from the rest of the country, have really complicated their ability to deliver humanitarian aid to displaced individuals, medical supplies to hospitals, food to people who remain in the city despite displacement orders being issued.

13:40And they described to us the fact that the last remaining bridge, the Qasimiya Bridge, was a literal lifeline for those communities that are still living there, tens of thousands of people. Yesterday, that bridge was struck. However, it remains operable. A land crossing right next to the bridge was destroyed. It flew over and landed on the bridge, temporarily cutting off access, which has then been cleared. But there's a huge risk now that should that bridge be struck, a central lifeline to people still living there would be cut off. And there's no answers to the questions of how will food continue to be supplied?

14:13How will humanitarian aid, medical supplies continue to be provided to the area south of the river? So, Ramzi, Israeli officials have said that they plan to occupy a swath of southern Lebanon to establish a so-called security zone for the safety of Israelis in northern Israel right along the border. Meanwhile, Israel says it's targeting military infrastructure, but humanitarian groups say that Lebanese civilians are bearing the brunt of this escalated invasion. Tell us, what is Human Rights Watch's position on Israel's prosecution of the war in Lebanon? So I think in addition to the statements that the Israeli military has issued indicating their intent to occupy and control the area south of the Etanian River, there have been other statements that have been issued by Israeli government and military officials indicating an intent quite blatantly to commit more atrocities.

15:07These are statements that were issued, for example, by the defense minister, who has said that hundreds of thousands of Shia residents, Muslim Shia residents of southern Lebanon will not return to their homes until the safety of Israel's northern residents is guaranteed, raising very serious risks of forced displacement or war crime. And under international law, people who are displaced must be allowed to return to their homes once the hostilities cease or once the conditions for their displacement cease to exist. Their return cannot be tied to a vague safety standard that is decided upon by the Israeli military.

15:40In addition to this, the Israeli defense minister has come out with a statement saying that he and Netanyahu have ordered the destruction of all homes along Lebanon's border villages in line with what he said was the Rafah and Beit Hanun model in Gaza. And, you know, we have documented war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide in Gaza, which is very alarming to hear him use that again as a model to be replicated in Lebanon. We've heard Israel's finance minister Smotrich saying as well that Lebanon's southern suburbs would be turned into Khan Yunus. So there's a very alarming rhetoric that is being issued by Israeli officials, as well with military conduct on the ground that reflects grave violations.

16:19And since 2023, we have documented repeated, apparently deliberate attacks on civilians. This includes health workers. This includes journalists. It includes peacekeepers. We've documented, apparently, deliberate attack on civilian objects, all raising serious violations of the laws of war and also apparent war crimes that are being committed in a climate of impunity in Lebanon, quite frankly. That's Human Rights Watch researcher Rumsey Kais in Beirut. Rumsey, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me.

16:49Holly Dagres:One more short break, and then Scott Tong picks up the story with a look at what's getting through the Strait of Hormuz, what's not, and what it means for the global economy. We'll be right back.

17:08The ceasefire Rumsey was just talking about is not yet pushing down gas prices. Let's talk now about when the markets and we might see some financial relief. with Ali Velshi. He's host at MS Now, where he's also chief data reporter. Ali, let's look at the energy data here. National gas average,$4.416. Oil's still high, about$100 a barrel. Is that because only a few oil tankers right now are going through this rate of hormones? Yeah, very, very few, actually. The concept of whether it's open or closed, depending on who you ask, is perhaps marginally less relevant than whether or not anything's getting through.

17:45And right now, just a handful of tankers have gotten through. There are hundreds waiting to get through in both directions. We saw, after the announcement of the ceasefire, we saw about a 15 % drop in the price of oil. However, the price of gas, which is, you know, directly correlated to the price of oil, but it lags a little bit. So in fact, you're probably going to see gas go up a little bit more just to catch up. The question is oil, as you said, about$100,$90,$97.42 for U.S. oil right now. It's unclear, depending on whether there's real durable ceasefire, whether that price goes down to what it was before the war in the 60s or whether it goes up again into the hundreds and teens or even higher.

18:25Yeah, well, I mean, you and I have talked to, you know, the energy pros in this space. I mean, it seems to be lots of things in the chain have to happen here to get back to normal, not just the shipping, But oil production has to restart. I've been told drilling is kind of like riding a bike. You know, if you stop, it takes a bunch of work to restart the machine of drilling. And then psychologically, right, the market needs confidence. Things have really calmed down. I mean, a lot of things have to happen, yeah? Yeah, that third part, the confidence is probably the biggest one. Because let's say you've got something that looks like a durable ceasefire.

19:00And let's say you start building the oil production and shipping infrastructure and the natural gas infrastructure. that needs to go through. The main thing about the Strait of Hormuz is that oil tankers have to get insurance. And the insurance depends on how certain the insurer is that the ceasefire is durable or will hold, and the prices for insurance have skyrocketed. So that's part of the problem. But the infrastructure is a real problem too, including natural gas, which has to leave Qatar by ship. They've destroyed natural gas plants. So in some cases, it's weeks or months to get things going again.

19:32In some cases, it's actually years to rebuild some of the infrastructure. So we will not get back to normal, whatever you think normal was, to where we were before the beginning of the war. That's not a matter of weeks or months. The question is whether the oil markets will psychologically believe that normalcy is coming and return prices lower. Let me ask this question on psychology. I mean, blocking the Strait of Hormuz was always this nightmare scenario for folks in the energy business. Now it's happened. You know, after September 11th, people said we can no longer go to September 10th. Similarly, can the world kind of no longer go back to February 27th?

20:11Well, it's got to do one of two things, right? It's got to figure out there are various choke points economically in the world, and the Strait of Hormuz always was one. It was never used this way. Now that it's there, what do you do about that? Do you decide that you want a durable, enduring peace by all the people in the area who can cause trouble for ships trying to get through? Or do you find alternatives? That's kind of why canals and pipelines were born, right? People wanted alternatives to get goods through in a safe and secure manner. That's, of course, an infrastructure problem that will take not maybe years but maybe even decades to figure out.

20:42But, no, you're absolutely right. Once it's happened once, it's clear it can happen again. The other issue is Iran would like to institute a system of tolls. That's illegal under international law, but Donald Trump has actually suggested it's possible that that could happen and Iran and the U.S. would split the money they get for the tolls for allowing a joint venture. So, again, illegal under international law for both parties to suggest it. But, no, normal won't happen for a while now. Yeah, I want to go back to our pocketbooks and airline fees. Southwest Airlines just upped its check bag fee to$45.

21:13Delta did something similar yesterday. United JetBlue raised fees last week. Is this because they're paying more for jet fuel or they're raising prices because they can? It's never clear with airlines, right? Often they add a fuel fee, fuel surcharge, and then the fuel surcharge doesn't quite go away when prices come down. Baggage fees have been increasing over the past few years, but you're right. It's$45 for this first bag. With Southwest,$55 for the second bag. Same thing on Delta now. That's a$10 increase for both the first and the second bag. By the way, don't take three bags on Delta. That's$200.

21:47Jet Blue is$39.59. I would argue some of this is opportunistic. In other words, some of it's real. It's valid. baggage costs money to fly. When fuel gets more expensive, there are increased costs. I would suggest we see these things move up faster than we see them move down. So you might just be, again, psychologically get people used to the fact that they pay$45 for a bag, or you do something in terms of getting airline loyalty or using their credit card to get a discount. And last question on energy inflation, right? There's talk the Federal Reserve may respond by raising interest rates instead of lowering them as a lot of...

22:22So for you and me in the prices we pay, is that also a real possibility going forward? Yes, and that's the real problem here. You might say, I don't drive a car, so I don't pay for the increased fuel. First of all, you pay for it and everything is delivered or shipped to you or grown on a farm. And secondly, you may pay it because in order to fight the inflation that it forces, you may have to pay higher interest rates, so you end up paying it across the board. Across the board, whether you think you use gas or energy or not, you do. That's Ali Vilschi of MSNOW. Ali, pack a light. Thank you. Thanks, my friend.

22:55Holly Dagres:That's it for the show today. Here and Now, Anytime comes from NPR and WBUR Boston. Today's stories were produced by Wilder Fleming, Hafsa Qureshi, and Jenna Griffiths. Our editors were Todd Bunt, Mikaela Rodriguez, Michael Scotto, and Kat Welch. Technical direction from Caleb Green and Matt Reed. Our theme music is by Mike Moschetto, Max Liebman, and me, Chris Bentley. Our digital producers are Alison Hagen and Grace Griffin. And here and now's executive producer is Alan Price. Thanks for listening. We'll be back with you tomorrow.