What the Ohio and Indiana primaries hint about November's midterms

0:00Melanie Turner:Support for Here and Now Anytime comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software, to design and develop engineered systems, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science. Learn more at mathworks.com. WBUR Podcasts, Boston.

0:22Kate Sosin:In pretty much every state that's had a primary so far, you've seen a surge of Democratic turnout, and Republicans have been more, eh. Which, if those feelings continue through November, it's going to make the country's politics look very, very different next year and for the final two years of Trump's term.

0:41Stephen Fowler:Voters in Ohio and Indiana offer a glimpse of the political mood ahead of the midterms.

0:55Stephen Fowler:It's Wednesday, May 6th, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WBUR Boston. I'm Shiko Theuri. Today on the show, Smith College, one of the country's largest institutions for women, is under investigation over its policy of admitting transgender students. And the issue of affordability is especially acute for our nation's teachers. We hear how one in California is getting by. I myself have been able to live in the city of Oakland where I work, but I've usually had two or more housemates or roommates, including other children. But first, we're six months away from November's midterm elections.

1:37Stephen Fowler:Yesterday, a pair of primaries in the Midwest provided more insight into how voters are feeling right now. In Indiana, President Trump's push to punish Republican state lawmakers who blocked a redistricting plan worked. And in neighboring Ohio, Democrats had a higher voter turnout than Republicans expected, which means the Buckeye State is in for more competitive gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races this fall. NPR's Stephen Fowler shared some analysis with Robin Young.

2:06Melanie Turner:So to Indiana and the president's, you know, somewhat unusual interest in state Senate races. Flesh that out. Remind us.

2:13Kate Sosin:Well, last year, before the Supreme Court ruling in the redistricting arms race has reached a fever pitch, Indiana was pushed to draw out its two House Democrats. There were a number of Republican lawmakers who balked, that effort failed, and Trump sought revenge. There's been well over$7 million in TV ads alone that were spent trying to convince a small handful of Republican primary voters to oust seven state Senate incumbents on the ballot. And as of right now, five of the seven incumbents lost, one held on, and the final one is between three votes. So expect more recounts of things happening there.

2:52Melanie Turner:Well, that's tight. But what does it tell you?

2:55Kate Sosin:Well, it certainly says that there is something still to be said about what Donald Trump says and does in the Republican Party and in the primary. and that even though there's not much different ideologically with the old lawmakers and the new ones, Trump is king.

3:12Melanie Turner:Right. And he wants those states redistricting in order to get more Republican votes. It's pretty clear about it. What about Ohio? Neither party had competitive primaries.

3:25Kate Sosin:Well, there were still a lot of people that showed up at the polls, even though we knew going into this that the governor's race was going to be Republican Vivek Ramaswamy versus Democrat Amy Acton. And for the Senate, former Senator Sherrod Brown is challenging incumbent Republican John Husted. Those brought people to the polls, even if it didn't really affect the primary. Speaking of redistricting, Ohio had to redraw its map under state law because way back in 2021, lawmakers did not agree on a map. Currently, there's 10 Republicans and five Democrats. The new map makes it slightly harder for two of those Democrats to be reelected.

4:02Kate Sosin:But here's where it gets interesting. If you look at the primary votes, there were more Democratic primary voters than Republican voters in seven districts, including a few Republican-held districts that Democrats hope to try and flip in what is expected to be a good year for them.

4:18Melanie Turner:So that's Ohio. But how do, you know, overall, the early Republican primaries compare to these early Democratic primaries that we've seen so far? And what does that mean? I mean, what will you be looking for as we head to many more primaries in the summer?

4:33Kate Sosin:The Republican primaries have really seen little fireworks, with the exception of the still to-be-decided Texas Senate Republican runoff, and of course the targeting of Indiana lawmakers. I mean, Trump's endorsement is powerful nowadays. It comes earlier than ever. It's more concentrated among incumbents. And it's a little bit chicken and egg with the type of Republican that would even consider running in a Republican primary race. On the Democratic side, I have been reporting on this thread of constant Democratic overperformance in special elections and regular elections since Trump returned to office.

5:07Kate Sosin:Yesterday was no different. There was a special legislative election in Michigan that was considered a purplish 50-50 seat. The Democrat there won by 20 points. And zooming out for Democrats in every state that's had a primary this year, Robin, there has been a surge in turnout compared to the last midterms. There are more Democrats than Republicans that voted in North Carolina and Texas key battleground states, and it's nearly even in Ohio.

5:33Melanie Turner:Yeah. Well, you know, back to Indiana and here President Trump wins. His, you know, the candidates he did not want to win did not. So how do you square that with his low approval ratings?

5:44Kate Sosin:Well, his low approval rating isn't low among the one group that matters, Republican-based voters that actually show up in a primary. Even still, we have this new NPR-PBS News Marist poll that just came out that sheds some more light on how you should square things. That record low approval rating is driven by declines in virtually every group you could think of that was important to Trump's win in 2024. Voters in the South, those who make less than$50 ,000 a year, white men and women without college degrees, millennials, men, parents of children under 18, rural voters, and so on.

6:18Melanie Turner:It seems like almost everyone, but we take your point. That's how he won. So for Republicans still facing a primary, what should be their takeaway? What would you say from last night's results?

6:31Kate Sosin:Well, the midterm environment is a rebuke on the party in power. Polls show voters are unhappy with rising gas prices, the war in Iran and other Trump policies. But the takeaway for Republicans seems to be have no daylight from Trump. You're seeing that play out with the rush of southern states that are still trying to explore redistricting to eliminate Democratic seats, even though it isn't likely to save control of the chamber and with a large number of House and Senate Republicans that have opted to leave Congress instead.

6:59Melanie Turner:Yeah, well, and there's a lot of time between now and November. A lot could happen. We were in a sort of war with an eye on Cuba. But can you take something from these primary results to November?

7:12Kate Sosin:You see why Democrats feel like they have a chance at retaking the Senate by capitalizing on that erosion in Republican-led states that have soured on Trump. And back to the polling data, people keep saying it's the economy. And a lot of those core issues aren't things that can be resolved or addressed overnight. The other thing is watching enthusiasm. Democrats have been super down on the Democratic Party, but love their Democratic candidates. And that looks to continue.

7:37Melanie Turner:NPR political reporter Stephen Fowler, thank you so much.

7:40Kate Sosin:Thank you.

7:49Stephen Fowler:Coming up next, the Trump administration is investigating an all-women's college for admitting transgender students. Details after the break.

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10:05Stephen Fowler:Get 15 % off plus a bonus gift when you subscribe at prolonlife.com slash NPR. As students take their final exams at Smith College in Massachusetts, the Trump administration launches an investigation into the school. The probe into one of the country's largest women's colleges is focused on its policy of admitting transgender students. It's just the latest target of transgender people by the administration. Kate Salson is a journalist with our reporting partners over at the nonprofit newsroom The 19th. Here's their conversation with Indira Lakshmanon. So the Trump administration says Smith College is violating federal civil rights law by admitting transgender women.

10:48Stephen Fowler:First, can you explain their argument? Yeah, the administration argues that a women's college loses all meaning if it admits what the Trump administration deems is biological males. And that is the term that the administration often uses to describe transgender women, which, of course, is a controversial way to describe trans people. It says that the school is violating Title IX, which is the 1972 law that prohibits sex-based discrimination. It says that an all-girls school that enrolls male students professing a female identity would cease to qualify as single sex under Title IX. Hmm. Well, there are now some 30 women's colleges in the country.

11:32Stephen Fowler:Many of them now accept transgender women, which perhaps we should define as people who are born male but identify as female. Why was Smith specifically singled out? That's a very good question. You know, the Trump administration has increasingly targeted LGBTQ plus friendly spaces and states. So it's not clear why Smith was chosen or targeted. But we've seen an increase in trans friendly spaces and states over the last year and a half. There's been some reporting from the Boston Globe that Smith awarded an honorary degree to Admiral Rachel Levine, a transgender woman and former Biden official, and that it was after that that a conservative watchdog group filed a federal complaint.

12:24Stephen Fowler:I want to ask you in a statement, Smith College has said it is, quote, fully committed to its institutional values, including compliance with civil rights laws, but it won't comment on a pending investigation. What's the reaction been on campus and what does Smith stand to lose here if the Trump administration says they're violating civil rights law? Yeah, that's correct. You know, Smith is overwhelmingly an LGBTQ plus friendly institution and its policy of accepting transgender students, which has been in place for more than a decade, has been largely supported by students, faculty and staff.

13:06So the backlash against this has been pretty swift and severe, both within the college and the larger college community.

13:17Stephen Fowler:Um, the school stands to lose quite a bit. Um, and it's worth noting that this school is part of a five college consortium. So it accepts students, um, via a collaboration with Smith, Mount Holyoke, UMass and Amherst, um, into classes and its campus community. That's right. So it means there are already male students at Amherst, Hampshire, um, UMass Amherst who can attend Smith as well through this consortium. Let me ask you, as you say, Smith began admitting students who self-identify as women in 2015. There had been intense debate about whether to allow transgender students on campus. Is this federal investigation now gonna reopen that debate at Smith and at many other women's colleges that admit transgender women?

14:08Stephen Fowler:I think that's a great question. And the answer is probably yes. There's this question over What does Title IX mean and what does it do? It's been a battlefield for this question of trans inclusion. The Obama administration interpreted it to mean that the law to understand that sex discrimination includes gender identity and protects transgender people. But the Trump administration has taken the exact opposite route in pretty much all areas of public life and has weaponized it against them. And that question has gone unsettled when it comes to sports, when it comes to passports, when it comes to health care.

14:48Stephen Fowler:And now we're seeing it play out in education. Well, as you've reported, the Trump administration has targeted policies about transgender people involved in sports, bathrooms and the military. What does it mean now that they're looking at college admissions? And we have just about less than a minute left. Yeah, it means that we're ramping up and also that we're seeing that almost no space is going to be safe from these threats. I think it's going to be incumbent upon colleges to challenge these rules. And it'll be interesting to see how this in particular plays out and whether or not colleges stand up to the Trump administration on this.

15:32Stephen Fowler:Kate Sosson covers LGBTQ plus issues for our editorial partners at The 19th. Thanks so much for joining us, Kate. Thanks for having me.

15:47Stephen Fowler:Coming up, finding affordable housing is hard these days, especially for teachers. We hear from one after the break.

15:59Stephen Fowler:You don't have to wear a cape to be a hero.

16:01Kate Sosin:You could wear rubber boots or goggles or a very special pocket watch or a belt made of seaweed.

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