Why bright-red Iowa may now be a toss-up

0:00Marisa Lagos:Support for Here and Now Anytime comes from MathWorks, creator of MATLAB and Simulink software, to design and develop engineered systems, accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science. Learn more at mathworks.com. WBUR Podcasts, Boston. Democrats point to 2018, a midterm election during Trump's first term when three Democrats won the four seats in Iowa. Republicans control all levels of government in Iowa, but some of them are nervous heading into the midterm elections.

0:40Kay Henderson:It's Monday, June 1st, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WBR. I'm Chris Bentley.

0:55Kay Henderson:Today on the show, there are primaries this week in six states. And no offense to Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, or South Dakota, but we are going to focus on two states today, Iowa and California. Find out what's going on there in just a few minutes. Also, Maine Democrat Graham Plattner's Senate campaign fends off more controversy. Revelations he was sexting women after he was married. His wife is defending him.

1:26Anthony Brooks:No marriage is perfect, and I don't want a perfect marriage. I want my marriage, and I want to be married to Graham.

1:34Kay Henderson:But what do voters think? We'll hear from a few of them coming up in about 10 minutes. But first, Democrats in Iowa think they have a real shot at winning an open Senate seat and flipping two or three seats in Congress. It will not be easy. President Trump won Iowa three times in a row. Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and hold almost every statewide office there. Last year, two-term Republican Senator Joni Ernst decided not to run again, and this week Democrats will settle on the man they'll nominate to replace her. Kay Henderson, news director at Radio Iowa, tells Peter O'Dowd the Democratic race has winnowed down from five candidates to two.

2:20Marisa Lagos:It's Josh Turek. He is a state legislator from Council Bluffs, which is part of the Omaha Metro. He represents in the Iowa House of Representatives a district that was easily won by Donald Trump two years ago by double digits. He won by a six-point margin there. And then the other candidate on the Democratic side is Zach Walls. He is a state senator. He comes from a really Democratic part of the state, Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. And so this has really turned into sort of, I guess, what's happening at the national level. Turek is approaching this election with the idea that independent voters will be the kingmakers in this race.

3:08Marisa Lagos:That's the way he puts it. He is campaigning in red areas and in blue areas of the state, whereas Walls is really focusing on committed Democrats in the eastern part of the more populous part of the state and has really made this kind of a referendum on Chuck Schumer, if you will, accusing Schumer of preferring Josh Turek, his opponent.

3:37Kay Henderson:Yeah, interesting. Both Turek and Walls have pretty interesting personal stories. Can you just briefly touch on who each person is?

3:44Marisa Lagos:Zach Walls came to have kind of a viral moment when viral moments were a big thing just starting. He was 17. He testified before the Iowa House of Representatives against a constitutional amendment that would bar same-sex marriage. He is the child of two moms. Josh Turek is a four-time Paralympian for Team USA, wheelchair basketball. He was born with spina bifida, and he has won two gold medals for the USA.

4:16Kay Henderson:All right. Well, whoever wins the primary there is likely going to go up against a Republican named Ashley Hinson. What are Republicans saying about this Senate race? Are they feeling nervous or confident because it's Iowa?

4:29Marisa Lagos:Well, Republicans hold a significant voter registration edge in Iowa, so that gives them confidence. Ashley Henson has proven herself to be a competent, if not phenomenal, fundraiser. And on the day she announced that she was running for this seat in September, she got President Trump's endorsement. So that is a significant move in Iowa for Republicans here. Trump won the Iowa caucuses in 2024 with over 50 % of the Republicans who participated in the caucuses.

5:06Kay Henderson:There are four House seats in Iowa occupied by four Republicans. Is there any chance Democrats could flip any of those?

5:14Marisa Lagos:Well, Democrats point to 2018, a midterm election during Trump's first term when three Democrats won the four seats in Iowa. This time around in this midterm election, there are two Republican incumbents that seem to be targeted by Democrats nationally, Marionette Miller-Meeks, who won her first race for the House in 2020 by just six votes. She is facing a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannon, who again comes from Iowa City, therefore mentioned sort of Democratic stronghold in Iowa. And then there is an open seat in northeast Iowa, which used to be Ashley Hinson's. And then there is an incumbent in central and southern Iowa, Zach Nunn, a Republican who is seeking reelection, and his race is targeted as well.

6:05Kay Henderson:Interesting. You know, you have a Republican state legislature and a Republican governor, but I've noticed that I haven't heard much from Iowa about drawing new maps. Is that at all on the radar to try to secure Republicans' grip on the congressional delegation?

6:21Marisa Lagos:Well, that's a question that reporters have been posing to Republican legislative leaders, and they have said they're not interested in reopening the districting maps. Iowa has a unique system for redistricting, a nonpartisan system, and they have expressed support for it and have expressed no interest in reopening it. However, one would think that if some of these seats in Iowa's House delegation flip, there will be pressure from outside of Iowa to do what you described.

6:54Kay Henderson:Kay Henderson, News Director at Radio Iowa. Primary days tomorrow. Thanks for talking to us.

6:59Marisa Lagos:Thank you.

7:08Kay Henderson:There is also a governor's race in Iowa after Republican Kim Reynolds decided not to seek re-election. It's the state's first open seat race for governor in 20 years, which incidentally was the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Iowa. we'll keep a hawk eye on those iowa elections later this year so click that follow button if you like election coverage that's measured and focused on what matters we'll be bringing you voices from around the country and digging into issues not just following the horse race so follow here and now anytime wherever pods are cast we've got to take a short break now but in just a minute we will check in on the primaries in California.

7:54Kay Henderson:It's the most populous state, and it may have the biggest slate of candidates for governor. More than 60 people are vying to succeed Gavin Newsom, and a whole lot of money is being spent in the process. Scott Tong has that one in just a minute.

8:14Marisa Lagos:This message comes from IXL. IXL is designed to help students strengthen core skills and build confidence before the new school year begins. The adaptive platform provides personalized learning for pre-K through 12th grade and is used in 96 of the top 100 school districts in the United States. One hour of tutoring can cost more than an entire month of IXL. Receive an exclusive 20 % discount on an IXL membership at IXL.com slash NPR.

8:44Kay Henderson:Support for NPR and the following message come from Rippling. These days, you can chat with AI about almost any business problem, but Rippling AI is designed to actually solve them. That's because Rippling AI is built on your live global workforce data, so it doesn't just uncover insights into your business, it uses them to take complex actions across your departments. Ready for AI that isn't all talk? Head to rippling.ai slash NPR and get AI that turns insight into action. That's R-I-P-P-L-I-N-G dot A-I slash NPR. Sign up today. California holds primary elections tomorrow for governor. That is who succeeds the outgoing Gavin Newsom.

9:29Kay Henderson:In this blue state, there is no clear front runner among Democrats. We should note California has a particular primary process. Every candidate, regardless of party, is placed on the ballot. and the top two vote-getters then move on to the general election, even if those two are from the same party. Joining us now is Marisa Lagos, politics correspondent for member station KQED in San Francisco. Hi, Marisa. Hey, Scott. So California Democrats had a frontrunner, Congressman Eric Swalwell, who dropped out in April over sexual misconduct allegations. So now, who are the key Democrats still standing?

10:05Anthony Brooks:Well, Javier Becerra, former Health and Human Services Secretary under Joe Biden and a former California attorney general, has really surged ahead in polls since Swalwell's exit. That was a bit of surprise because as recently as April, he was polling around 5 percent. He does seem pretty likely to get a top spot now. Fighting it out for number two is billionaire Democrat activist Tom Steyer. And Republican Steve Hilton, who's a former Fox News commentator and businessman and who did notably get President Trump's endorsement. Yeah.

10:39Kay Henderson:Now, it's remarkable that around 60 names, I believe, are on the ballot. And there has been concern or had been among Democrats that the crowded field could make it easier for two Republicans to end up top two and move on to the general election. Is that a likely possibility at this moment?

10:57Anthony Brooks:It is not. I want to repeat, it is not. That really concerned a lot of people nationally this spring when it did look like just the enormous number of Democrats and really their low name identification could split the vote and allow Hilton and perhaps Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, also a Republican, to get those spots. Since Swalwell's exit, and really starting around the time when Swalwell started surging, I think we have seen Democratic voters really pay attention. They outnumber Republican voters almost two to one in this state. So I do think to some extent it was a little overstated, but it was a possibility there.

11:36Yeah.

11:36Kay Henderson:You talked a little bit about Javier Becerra. Can you talk a little bit more about Tom Steyer, the Democrat, and Hilton, the Republican?

11:45Anthony Brooks:Yeah. So Steyer is really interesting. He was a hedge fund manager, made his fortune really in like high risk investments and did leave that world about a little over a decade ago, became a big Democratic activist, has funded a number of ballot measure campaigns here for progressive causes, also helped push the first impeachment of President Trump and briefly ran for president in 2020. Steve Hilton, you know, I think is trying to toe an interesting line here. I would say in his heart, he's a more traditional Republican, very much about cutting taxes, cutting spending, cutting regulation. But he has been supported by Trump and really has some of the consultants and sort of MAGA world behind him.

12:32Anthony Brooks:And I think that has allowed him to surge, even though his Republican opponent, Chad Bianco, is really more like the president in both his rhetoric and politics.

12:41Kay Henderson:Yeah. Let me ask you, Maurice, about money. A corporation, special interest groups, have spent at least$88 million in this race, more than double what they spent in 2018 when Gavin Newsom won, big number. On top of that, the Democrat Tom Steyer has put in$213 million of his own money. How is all this spending playing a role in this race?

13:03Anthony Brooks:Yeah, I mean, it's fascinating. You cannot turn on your TV or computer without seeing a Tom Steyer ad. And money talks, right? I think it's helped propelled him into this top three, but it hasn't been enough to completely like, you know, put him in the top spot. And I think that shows that in this very expensive state, there is some skepticism, both of money and politics and just of a billionaire in this moment among Democrats. We've seen because of Becerra's late surge, the spending coming late, but certainly millions being put into independent expenditures on his behalf as well. and just a lot of inundation, I think, in this final days of the campaign for voters.

13:44Anthony Brooks:So, you know, which would probably continue if we see a Steyer-Becera runoff, you know, between two Democrats. It will be definitely a heated, very high-profile, you know, contest. And that$216 million Steyer spent, that dwarfs any previous self-funding record. The last one was 2010. 10 Meg Whitman. She spent$140 million, but that included the general election. So we're feeling it here, Scott.

14:13Kay Henderson:Yeah. Let me ask you kind of real quick. As of Sunday, I understand 15 % of all ballots had been submitted. Seems like a low number. Does that signal anything?

14:22Anthony Brooks:I think Democrats have been holding onto their ballots and waiting because of how unsettled and messy this race has been. A lot of concern. Voters kind of trying to, you know, be more pundits to decide who's more electable, I would expect to see a really big turnout, not big turnout, but a decent turnout in the coming days.

14:43Kay Henderson:Yeah, maybe. Sitting on the fence for now. Marisa Lagos, politics correspondent for KQED in San Francisco, and she's co-host of the podcast Political Breakdown. Marisa, thanks.

14:53Anthony Brooks:My pleasure.

14:54Kay Henderson:Thanks for having me.

15:01Kay Henderson:Coming up, there are 35 Senate seats up for election in November, and 11 of them are considered competitive by the political bean counters. But maybe no race has gotten quite so much attention as the one in Maine. Democrats hope to unseat Senator Susan Collins and replace her with a progressive critic of leadership in both parties who vows to fight oligarchy. Graham Plattner also has some skeletons in his closet. But do voters care? More in a minute.

15:38Marisa Lagos:This message comes from Mercy Corps, helping families persevere through crisis, hunger, and natural disaster, and equipping vulnerable communities so they can adapt and thrive. Your support helps deliver life-changing support in over 35 countries. Visit mercycorps.org slash donate to build a stronger tomorrow.

16:00Kay Henderson:This message comes from Bombas. Upgrade your summer staples with soft socks, cushy sandals, and breezy basics. One purchase means one donated with over 200 million donations and counting. Go to bombas.com slash NPR and use code NPR for 20 % off your first purchase. It's damage control time for the campaign of Graham Plattner, once a long-shot candidate who is now the presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine. A combat veteran and oysterman, Plattner has excited voters with an anti-establishment message. He's also acquired some enemies, including the two-term governor whom he forced out of the race.