Why Elliott Abrams wants Trump to topple Maduro

0:00Support for WBUR comes from Is Business Broken? A podcast from the Mehrotra Institute at Boston University that explores questions like, why is innovation in health care so hard? Is ESG just greenwashing? And, of course, is business broken? Listen wherever you get your podcasts. WBUR Podcasts. Boston. Secretary Hegseth stands behind Admiral Bradley 100%. Admiral Bradley made the right call, and unlike the previous administration, we have our warfighters back at this department. The Secretary of Defense says he did not order a double-tap strike on a boat off the coast of Venezuela, but he supports the killings anyway.

0:56It's Tuesday, December 2nd, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WBWR. I'm Chris Bentley.

1:06Today on the show, longtime conservative presidential advisor Elliot Abrams pushed for U.S. military intervention across Latin America in the 80s and the Middle East in the 2000s. Now, he says regime change is the only way forward in Venezuela. Hitting little boats in the Caribbean won't do it. I think more is going to be needed. And the question for President Trump is, how far is he willing to go? Also, Dr. Mehmet Oz says the government is working out a solution to address the rising cost of health insurance, with a deadline to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits just a few weeks away. Before we get to that, though, the Pentagon held a press conference today, doubling down on yesterday's denial from the White House, which claimed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth did not order the secondary strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean.

2:01The attack in question happened on September 2nd at the order of the Defense Secretary. The follow-up strike killed two remaining survivors. Both the White House and the Pentagon say Navy Admiral Frank Bradley is responsible for the second order, which is under heavy scrutiny as a potential war crime. For more, we called up NPR's Tom Bowman. Here's what he told Peter O'Dowd. First of all, the Washington Post and CNN reported this week that Hegseth ordered the strikes on that September 2nd alleged drug boat, including the second one that killed the two survivors, and NPR confirmed that. As we just heard, you know, the White House said that's not true.

2:42Hegseth authorized the strikes that were then ordered by Admiral Frank Mitch Bradley, the top officer of the U.S. Special Operations Command. Now, the New York Times is reporting that Hegseth did indeed order the first strike to kill people on the boat and destroy it, but did not address what would happen if there were survivors. And the Times reported that Admiral Bradley ordered the second strike to comply with Hegseth's original order to take out the boat and those aboard. Hegseth said on exit, Admiral Bradley is, quote, an American hero, a true professional, and has my 100 % support. I stand by him in the, get this, in the combat decisions he has made on the September 2nd mission and all the others since.

3:28Now, some military officials I talk with said that seems to shift the responsibility from Hegseth, who was a targeting authority, to Bradley. And Congressman Adam Smith, the top Democrat in armed services, told NPR's morning edition this is a CYA moment for Secretary Hegseth. Is there anything to indicate that Hegseth was unaware of what was happening or not fully looped into that final decision? Well, that's on the second strike. Yeah, that's one of the main questions he's going to be asked by members of Congress. We do know that the day after that September 2nd strike, Hegseth went on Fox News and said he was watching the live video of the attack on this boat where 11 people were killed.

4:12So one question for him is, well, if you're watching the live video, did you see those two survivors hanging onto the boat or did you not? Right. Elsewhere on the program today, we spoke with Elliott Abrams. Now, he served as a special representative to Venezuela in President Trump's first term. Here's what he said about the boat strike. When you're an admiral, you've been in the Navy for 30 years. You know you're not allowed to shoot people who are flailing about at sea. So the notion that an admiral would actually give that order strikes me as unlikely. So that's one informed opinion. When you speak with people inside the Pentagon, is there a sense that the White House is looking for a scapegoat to protect the defense secretary?

4:56That's a sense of some military officials I speak with. And there's no question, as Elliot Abrams said, that you cannot shoot people who are, first of all, unarmed, and secondly, wounded and flailing about in the ocean. And you couldn't do that on land either. So there's some serious questions about, is this, you know, an illegal killing? And what happens now? Is someone going to actually face charges for this? No question that shooting people in this instance was illegal. Just briefly, Tom, are we ever going to see the video of this strike? Well, the Congress is asking for it. they have said remarkably, they have not seen the full video of this strike.

5:43All right. NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman, thanks, as always, for your information on this very complex story. Appreciate it. You're welcome, Peter.

6:05Well, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth today said, we've only just begun killing alleged drug traffickers at sea. The strikes are part of a pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which includes a massive military buildup in the Caribbean. After the break, we'll hear a lot more from Elliot Abrams, that former Trump advisor who we heard questioning the defense secretary's denial a minute ago. He says the U.S. shouldn't stop at executing people in boats off the coast of Venezuela. It should bomb the South American mainland. He also says fears of the country blundering into another forever war are ridiculous.

6:47Stick around.

7:18to find you the best fit for your health, your lifestyle, and your budget. And they work for you for free. Get the right life insurance for you and save more than 50 % at selectquote.com slash anytime. That's 50 % off at selectquote.com slash anytime. Elliott Abrams was Special Representative for Venezuela during President Trump's first term. Before that, he was a foreign policy advisor on the Middle East to President George W. Bush. and he was Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs to President Ronald Reagan. In all those presidencies, he promoted U.S. intervention abroad, including wars from Nicaragua to Iraq.

8:02He's now at the Council on Foreign Relations and is calling for regime change in Venezuela, and not for the first time. We wanted to ask him why he thinks things are going to be different this time. In this conversation with Scott Tong, he promised amnesty for members of Nicolás Maduro's government if they helped the U.S. push him out. We're not looking for revenge. We're looking for democracy in Venezuela. That's on the messaging side. On the military side, I think that if the president is serious about bringing down the regime, there will need to be military strikes in Venezuela. Does it seem clear to you that this administration is considering the military strikes that you're suggesting?

8:45Well, they're certainly considering them. I mean, you don't assemble this gigantic armada in the Caribbean, something like 15 percent, I believe, of all American naval power, including a largest carrier. You don't assemble that without at least thinking about using it. I don't think the president has fully made up his mind. I mean, I don't know. I'm not sure. I don't talk to him. But I think there's still a possibility that he would say, well, this was always about drugs. The amount of drug shipments going through the Caribbean has come down. And so he can walk away in January and claim victory.

9:28But I think he realizes that he's raised the sakes now. And that if Maduro survives, Trump loses. So I think he will probably do more. It is reported that President Trump and Maduro spoke by phone last month about Maduro having a potential safe passage out of Venezuela. That deadline, reportedly, according to the Miami Herald and Reuters, passed on Friday. And then over the weekend, the president said Venezuelan airspace was closed in its entirety. Is a window for a peaceful exit for Maduro closed, in your view? No, not at all. I think the administration is still trying to persuade Maduro to leave.

10:13And I think they'll be persuading him even after there are airstrikes, if they happen. I think they'll start and then the messaging will continue. Now's the time to go. Now's the time to go. Get out while you can. You've written in Foreign Affairs about a potential scenario where something goes wrong and it allows Maduro to stay. He has, according to many scholars, been a survivor and been in power more than a decade after he succeeded Hugo Chavez. What, in your view, is a scenario where things could go wrong and Maduro stays? The United States is, I think, counting on either Maduro leaving at some point because he'll look at the fate of Panama's General Noriega in federal prison for years and decide, OK, I don't want to risk that.

11:04Or there will be a military uprising. Neither of those things could happen. And if they don't happen, then the president has to decide whether to raise his stakes and increase the amount of American military pressure. I think that diplomatic pressure, political pressure, economic sanctions, hitting little boats in the Caribbean won't do it. I think more is going to be needed. And the question for President Trump is how far is he willing to go? You have said, Elliot Abrams, that Venezuela is a better candidate for regime change than Afghanistan or Iraq or Syria. Can you lay that out? Why do you say that?

11:47I think it's a much better candidate for a return to democracy. First of all, it would be a return, unlike, say, Libya, where there's never been a democracy. Venezuela overthrew its military dictator in 1958, and they had about 50 years of democracy. So many, many Venezuelans understand what democracy is like. They have all the institutions of democracy. It's a unified country, unlike, say, Iraq or Syria, where you've got Sunni and Shia and Jews and Kurds and no, no, not in Venezuela. What do you say to critics who say the evidence of narco-terrorism against Venezuela is debatable or thin, and that this, as they put it, is Venezuela's WMD moment?

12:32That is, the U.S. could be moving into another long-term forever war. Well, the idea of a forever war is ridiculous. I don't think the president has that in mind or will ever do that. And anyway, you don't have a forever war against a country in this hemisphere. I think that concept is really silly. First, I would note that the notion that this cartel of the suns, cartel de los soles, exists, was actually the position of the Biden administration. It's not something invented by President Trump. And I think it's widely known, really every NGO that studies this has said so, that the regime in Venezuela is involved with the trafficking of cocaine from Colombia into Venezuela and then out flew the Caribbean to the United States and to Europe.

13:34I think that's really incontrovertible. I don't see how this gets... I think the debate is how central Maduro and his inner circle is to this action. Right. But I think, again, if you look at the Biden administration, It was the Biden administration that first referred to the Cartel of the Suns and the role of the Maduro regime in trafficking. I think it's been very clear that there is protection from the top of the regime and the military. And in fact, they survive in part on the money they get from protecting, allowing and engaging in drug trafficking. As to the idea of a forever war, that time Donald Trump, I mean, you've seen how he uses force against Iran.

14:22The notion that he would do, for example, what we did in Panama and send in 30 ,000 troops is really almost unimaginable. Yeah. I imagine you have heard the concern, though, that Venezuela, it's a pretty large country. It's larger than Texas. One other possibility is if you remove Maduro, you could have this void, this power vacuum, where life for regular people in Venezuela could be worse than it is today. If the Maduro regime is removed, I assume that we and others will, first of all, be trying to help the recovery of the economy. But in terms of avoid, in terms of chaos, they have security forces.

15:10And I think the thing that we would need to help with, help the new elected government with, is paying the police and the military. Nothing would do more to achieve their loyalty to a new government, I think, than paying them. Elliot Abrams is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He also served as Special Representative for Venezuela in the first Trump administration. Elliot Abrams, thank you very much for the time. Thank you.

16:05Coming up. As part of the deal last month to end the government shutdown, Senate Republicans promised a vote before the end of the year on health care subsidies. That hasn't happened yet, and Republicans can't agree on how to proceed, leaving lots of Americans in limbo. More after the break.

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17:14Congress has until the end of next week to hold a vote on extending subsidies that help Americans pay for health insurance. But that doesn't mean they're united on what to do about the soaring cost of health care. Democrats want the government to keep paying for tax credits that help people afford their coverage on the Affordable Care Act health exchanges. Tax credits that got a lot bigger in 2021 because of the COVID pandemic. President Trump suggested extending those temporarily, but backed off after pressure from other Republicans who oppose any kind of tax credits or subsidies. White House economist Kevin Hassett said the Trump administration has a solution for cost-sharing that will be worked out by Christmas, but that's left a lot of Americans anxious about their health insurance heading into 2026.

18:03We asked the government's administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services about this, Dr. Mehmet Oz had one message he was eager to get out. Open enrollment, do it by Sunday, Medicare.gov. But given all the uncertainty over the costs that we were just talking about, open enrollment might not be so simple. Scott Tong asked Dr. Oz if the White House would let those health care subsidies expire. Here's what he said. Let's take a step back and examine what these subsidies are. So the ACA, the Affordable Care Act, has hefty subsidies already in it. prior to COVID, more than 80 % of the premium, the money that an individual would have to spend to get insurance was covered by the US government.

18:46During COVID, because of the emergency, there was an additional 10 % added. So it took it up into the low 90s. So most people had to pay a little bit, but many paid nothing. It was zero premium dollars. And that created all kinds of fraud in this system. So the challenge right now is what to do with that extra 10%, not the 80%, That's going to stay intact. So worst case scenario, you go back to the original Obamacare where 80 % of the dollars are covered. I do think Congress is working hard. Many are calling our agency for technical assistance and advice on what ideas might work, how much money would it cost if you do one version versus another version.

19:23I don't know where the Senate is specifically in terms of the upcoming vote, but I think Kevin Hassett was right in saying that there are options that are out there being discussed, like cost-sharing reduction, that I think both Democrats and Republicans think might be an efficient way of improving the quality of services within the ACA. Doctor, you've talked about fraud in Medicaid and trying to address that, potentially saving $200 billion. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the budget and tax cut bill the president signed will see 10 million more Americans become uninsured. Do you worry about that?

19:56I don't think that's a correct assessment, because I don't really think you can detail what's going to happen when someone is given the option of going to work versus having free health insurance, because that's the real deal we're offering to the American people. There was never an envisioned program in Medicaid where you would take able-bodied people and provide them lifelong insurance for free. In most countries, in this country in particular, we've always had a belief that work was part of social welfare programs. Every president, including every Democratic president, since the creation of Medicare and Medicaid has believed that work was a part of the process.

20:29In fact, that's what the Clinton welfare reforms were about in the 90s, and they were.

20:38Those new work requirements that Dr. Oz is talking about take effect in 2027, thanks to the big domestic policy bill Republicans passed this summer. If you want to hear more from Scott Tong's interview with Dr. Mehmet Oz, you can find that and a whole lot more right now at hereandnow.org. That's our show for today. Here and Now, Anytime comes from NPR and WBUR. Today's stories were produced by Hafsa Qureshi, Jenna Griffiths, and Thomas Danielian. Today's editors were Julia Corcoran, Michael Scotto, and Kat Welch. Technical direction from Caleb Green, Matt Reed, and Marcel Damiano. Our theme music is by Mike Moschetto, Max Liebman, and me, Chris Bentley.

21:17Our digital producers are Alison Hagen and Grace Griffin, and the executive producer of Here and Now is Alan Price. Thanks for listening. We'll be back with you tomorrow.