Why ending the war won't heal the economy

0:00This message comes from Dataiku. AI is everywhere, but companies struggle to prove results. For that, they need people, orchestration, and governance working as one. Dataiku is the platform for AI success, built to bring it all together. Visit D-A-T-A-I-K-U dot com slash NPR. WBUR Podcasts. Boston. We have now seen things that we've never seen happen before. This is bigger than the 70s energy crisis. Gas prices might go down a bit. It'll be a while before they go down a lot. Even if the war is over, and that's very much an if, the global economic turmoil is not.

0:58It's Thursday, June 18th, and this is Here and Now Anytime from NPR and WBUR. I'm Chris Bentley. Today on the show, Senate Democrats say the president's new acting director of national intelligence is only being picked for the job because he's loyal to Trump. And my fear is that Mr. Pulte could fabricate a piece of intelligence or take a single piece of intelligence, use as an excuse for interference in our elections this year. We'll also hear from some voters in Wisconsin about the agreement to end America's war on Iran. We essentially got nothing out of it. It's hurt our economy and accomplished the square root of nothing.

1:36Also, New Yorkers celebrate their NBA champions, the Knicks. Oh, the mood is like pure joy. I've never seen anything like it. But first, pure joy might be a bit much to describe the mood in France, where President Trump signed a preliminary agreement to end the American war against Iran. But there is certainly an air of relief for many. Iran has also signed the Memorandum of Understanding, which reopens the Strait of Hormuz and kicks off a period of negotiation between the two countries. We wanted to zoom in on what the potential end of this war means for the global economy and your wallet. Today, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the U.S.

2:22fell below four bucks for the first time in months. But what would the end of the war mean for the economy more broadly? MS Now's Ali Velshi told David Folkenflik, it's going to take a while for the global economy to recover, if the deal even holds. First of all, it's Israel and America's war, Israel's not part of this memorandum of understanding. They didn't sign it. They claimed they hadn't even seen it. And part of the condition of this deal is that Israel and Hezbollah stopped fighting. They're not part of this. So it's not clear that this deal even lasts the 60 days they're supposed to discuss it.

2:57The problem with energy prices is that there was always extra oil floating around the world. We've used up a lot of that oil since this war began. So even if the Strait of Hormuz opens up and things start floating through, it could be up to a year before we're in the position we were in before the war started. So, you know, they say with oil prices, they go up like a rocket and they come down like a feather. I'm not sure. We're still more than a dollar more than higher than we were before this war started. So as you say, this memorandum of understanding could go up in flames, but let's pretend as though this is a done deal and it settles so that we understand the potential implications.

3:34Gas prices are down. You say they're unlikely to return to pre-war levels. Obviously, the price of gas affects cost of fertilizer and flights and other goods, too. What would need to happen in order for that feather-like descent to accelerate a bit and for oil and gas prices to come down? We'd have to get to full pre-conflict energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz. That's not going to happen until 2027, assuming this agreement holds. Part of that is because energy facilities have been destroyed. Iran has actually attacked a lot of energy facilities, and the U.S. have attacked energy facilities on Karg Island, which is Iran's main center.

4:14So they've got to be rebuilt. Some of that's going to take years, particularly in Qatar, where natural gas facilities were destroyed. So that's got to happen, and producers of oil and natural gas may be reluctant to even restart the repairs and the production until they're convinced that this deal will actually become a deal and it'll hold. So we may be 60 days away from anybody even starting to do the kinds of things. It's not just a matter of the oil going through the Strait of Hormuz. It's all the oil that's being produced inside the Persian Gulf that we're not sure is going to get restarted all that quickly.

4:49The Bank of England issued a warning today, kind of sounding the cautionary style note that you are as well. The bank said inflation will stick around because there's a lot of economic uncertainty still lingering related to this war with Iran. Here in the U.S., the Fed kept interest rates steady and, in fact, hinted that it could set interest rates higher later this year. What signals do you think that folks at these two major institutions are watching for on inflation? Well, the Bank of England and the Fed, as you said, have held their interest rates steady. the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have raised interest rates.

5:29Now, Donald Trump has been railing against the guy he made the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for a couple of years now to try and convince him to lower interest rates. He then finally got his guy, Kevin Warsh, into the seat as the head of the chair, head of the Fed. The whole goal, the whole thing was to get interest rates lowered, and now all of a sudden you've got a Fed not talking about lowering interest rates, possibly talking about increasing interest rates. So we saw, even though this memorandum of understanding was released, you'd think stock markets would go up on that news. We saw them drop because markets are now betting that interest rates will increase between now and the end of the year.

6:06Remember, we have inflation, and again, it may taper because if oil starts flowing, but inflation was 4.2 % in May. That's the highest level in three years. You cannot lower interest rates while you've got that kind of inflation or you end up with something called stagflation, which is almost impossible to get out of normally. So at this point, this is going to be tough for Americans because they've got inflation right now. Nobody wants higher interest rates, but you may actually end up with higher interest rates. Yesterday, President Trump said that oil reserves could have run out in four weeks if the Strait of Hormuz hadn't been reopened.

6:40How much leverage did that give the Iranians? Lots. I mean, look, this thing started ostensibly over nuclear stuff, and it ended. It's an energy deal. In fact, I was talking to Ernie Moniz, the former energy secretary of the United States, who negotiated the Iran deal in 2015. He said, there's nothing to do with nuclear in this deal at all. It's correct. This is an energy deal. So Iran has leverage it didn't have at the beginning of the war. What it had at the beginning of the war was a threat to squeeze oil supply in the world. Then it used that threat and it found out that it worked a lot more effectively than even the nuclear threat did.

7:15So this is why this memorandum of understanding is not meeting with a big embrace, even by Republicans in Congress who think that America may have given away too much for too little in exchange from Iran. Looking forward, how lasting do you think this economic upheaval will be for the region and for the U.S.? Well, this is going to be big. We have now seen things that we've never seen happen before. This is bigger than the 70s energy crisis. So this is going to need more than a memorandum of understanding. It's going to need more than a deal with Iran. It's going to need the U.S. taking a leadership role in the world and saying this is how we're going to make sure that energy flow is sustained in years to come.

7:54We're not anywhere close to that right now. So, yeah, gas prices might go down a bit. It'll be a while before they go down a lot. Ali Velshi is MSNOW's chief data reporter and host of The 11th Hour with Ali Velshi. Ali, thanks. My pleasure.

8:16Coming up next, the continuing saga of the man who would be spy chief. For about a week now, we've been covering the back and forth between Trump and Congress over the president's controversial pick for director of national intelligence. After the break, why some Democrats say the man who is set to take over the post tomorrow could do a lot of damage, even with a temporary position. Stick around.

8:53This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination-focused dining, and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. And every Viking voyage is all-inclusive with no children and no casinos. Discover more at viking.com. This message comes from Rosetta Stone. Their latest innovation, Rosetta Stone Sapphire, helps you go from knowing phrases to speaking confidently. They have helped millions learn languages for over 30 years. Take your language skills to the next level with Rosetta Stone Sapphire.

9:32Get unlimited access to all 25 Rosetta Stone languages, plus all the new Sapphire learning tools. Visit rosettastone.com slash NPR and receive 20 % off today. Bill Pulte will take over as acting director of national intelligence tomorrow. Democrats and some Republicans object to his appointment because they say his main qualification as being loyal to Trump, and they fear he will use spy powers to retaliate against the president's enemies. The fight over that post derailed some legislation last week, and Trump stepped in seemingly to patch things up by nominating U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for DNI.

10:12But for now, that seems to be shelved. The president canceled Clayton's confirmation hearing yesterday, surprising senators on both sides of the aisle, including Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia and ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He spoke to Scott Tong. Mr. Pulte has got no national security experience, but more frightening, he has confirmed to run the mortgage entities Fannie and Freddie, and he has not even been able to keep secrets there to himself. He has weaponized personal information about people like Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Bank, Tish James, New York Attorney General, Adam Schiff, one of my colleagues.

10:52And the idea that Pulte, whose only criteria seems to be he is a total sycophant, the idea that he's going to now get exposed to all of our nation's secrets is terrifying. And look at all of the Republican senators who've pushed back as well, as well as people within the White House that have – that are serious about national security. Do you fear that, you know, Mr. Pulte, very close to the president, could cherry pick the intelligence to suit the president's agenda, withhold intelligence the president doesn't want to hear, that kind of thing? Absolutely. You know, the value of intelligence, there's only a value in intelligence if intelligent professionals are willing to speak truth to power.

11:33If you shade the intelligence, if you politicize it, then you end up in wars like we got into in Iraq 20 plus years ago. There are intelligence appointees of Mr. Trump who are terrified about Pulte as well, who are professionals who are saying, my gosh, what do we do with this guy? And what also is a problem is our allies, this whole notion of how we share intelligence with allies is based upon trust. And there are allies that had already pulled back from sharing intelligence. The Dutch government publicly acknowledged this a number of months ago. But if more allies don't share because they're concerned Mr.

12:13Pulte may not keep the secrets, then again, America is less safe. So are you saying you're worried we could in this scenario have another kind of yellow cake moment? That is the intelligence being shaped. Perhaps the narrative comes first and that kind of thing could happen again. Right. My other concern, the former director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, she was in Atlanta when they seized those ballots. She should not be dealing with domestic issues. And my fear is that Mr. Pulte could fabricate a piece of intelligence or take a single piece of intelligence, use as an excuse for interference in our elections this year, calling out ICE, calling out armed forces to our polling stations.

12:54You know, we have a corrupted election this year. I don't know how we ever recover from that. Senator, until yesterday, the Democrats were prepared to support Jay Clayton, the other pick, and in the process, renew a program allowing the intelligence agencies to conduct phone surveillance on foreign nationals. what happens to that that that is if democrats for certain reasons stay resolute is that going to compromise the nation's intelligence gathering well this is a critically important tool it's called section 702 of the fisa bill it is about foreigners talking to foreigners but there are occasions where two foreign spies are talking about mark warner and the name comes up you want to see if mark warner is actually a spy or mark warner is a a victim of for example, of an effort to try to get blackmailed.

13:48We had worked closely on trying to get a renewal of this tool in a bipartisan fashion. It's always controversial. Then Mr. Pulte being thrown into the mix, the president now saying that he doesn't want to renew Section 702 unless he also gets the so-called SAVE Act, which is a voter disenfranchisement law. So the idea that he's going to put renewal of this Kia item off is really problematic. Now, the good news is there is still, you know, there's kind of an extra innings requirement. Even though Pfizer expired a week ago, there is still the authority for a number of months. And so far, the good news is the telephone companies and some of the hyperscalers like Google and Apple are still working with the government.

14:31So we've not got a lapse. But at any point, because if the companies could say, well, I'm not going to work with the government anymore because I don't have the indemnification. We shouldn't be playing with national security this way. It should not be a political football. Senator Mark Warner is a Democrat from Virginia. Senator, thank you so much. Scott, thank you, sir. When we come back in just a minute, we'll hear from people in Wisconsin who flipped parties to vote for Trump and are regretting it. And we'll be dancing in the streets with the guy behind New York's good baklava, because why not?

15:10This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination-focused dining, and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. And every Viking voyage is all-inclusive with no children and no casinos. Discover more at Viking.com. President Trump's approval ratings continue to fall to record lows. And we wanted to hear from some swing voters about why that might be happening. Wisconsin narrowly voted for Trump in 2016, then Biden in 2020, and back to Trump in 2024. Rich Tao has been hearing from folks there with his firm Engages, which hosts focus groups for the Swing Voter Project, an NPR partner.

15:59He shared some of what he found with Scott Tong. Well, most of these swing voters in Wisconsin are unhappy with the overall performance of this administration since the president was re-inaugurated. Ten of the 13 said that they disapprove of what he's been doing since January of last year. Well, President Trump just signed a memo of understanding with Iran to end the war. Here is a response to that from Wisconsin voter Corey, and we're going to be referring to voters by their first names. We essentially got nothing out of it. It's hurt our economy and increased expenses for the everyday American, and it accomplished the square root of nothing.

16:34Square root of nothing. Rich, did you detect any kind of patterns in responses on the war issue? Overall dissatisfaction. None of these swing voters in Wisconsin thought that America came out better as a result of this war. Most of them thought we came out worse. Okay. OK. Now, as you know, NPR separately has new national polling data, finding voters in most categories unhappy about the economy. And it hit home for voters in Wisconsin as well who you talk to. Here is Robin. I had to raise all my deductibles on everything, my car insurance, my health insurance to lower my premiums so that I can continue to make it.

17:13So, Rich, this is someone who, you know, is having a problem with her economic needs. What about economic wants? Did people talk about that, things that they want to do? We found that six of these 13 swing voters have had to give up something that they liked or enjoyed or wanted to pay for because it increased their quality of life. Economic impacts are hitting these people in very profound ways. And I understand you spoke to a voter named Jalen. We're going to play some of her sound. Yeah, I've given up all my extracurricular hobbies, paddleboarding, yoga. A lot of my subscriptions I've cut out along with my daily coffee.

17:52And economically, would anything turn them back to supporting Trump? Say, you know, if prices come down, did they address that question? Well, for a number of them, the economic impacts are what drive their view of the president. So if gas prices went back down, other things at the grocery store and elsewhere became more affordable, housing and health care were things that they cited as being too expensive. Those kinds of things would improve people's view of the president because their lives would become easier economically. Yeah. And the 13 people in your focus group, can you talk a little more about who they are, either voting patterns, demographic information?

18:27Well, the most important thing to recognize about them, they're a diverse group of people of different ages, genders, and so forth, but they voted for Biden in 2020 and then flipped to Trump in 2024. So they're up for grabs in elections. That's the most important thing to understand. They are the ones who determine the outcome of presidential elections. More from Rich Tao of Engages at hereandnow.org, including how those swing voters in Wisconsin feel about America's 250th birthday coming up. But meanwhile, it is parade day in New York for the NBA champion Knicks. They won after 53 years of trying.

19:04And those celebrating include Roy Donk, a.k.a. the Baklava guy. Baklava? Oh, is this the dude?

19:19He's a fixture at fish shows, and I can personally vouch for the veracity of his signs advertising good baklava. He told Scott he's been building his brand one pistachio-laden wedge at a time, but today he's giving it away for free to celebrate. Typically we sell it in the parks. I'm obsessed with commerce, but it's one of those days where money has nothing to do with it. This is a celebration. This is a celebratory dessert. And we're here to share with all New Yorkers. Oh, you're sharing. It's our honor. So you've gone viral here. Why is it? Have you been hanging out at Madison Square Garden in the playoffs?

19:56I mean, tell me why so many of us have heard of you. Good question. So we've been all over the place a lot of the time outside Madison Square Garden, but we've also been outside Radio City. We threw our own unpermitted watch party in what they're calling Dime Square in downtown for game five. We rented a video wall truck and put the game on both sides and then threw a party that gathered approximately 5 ,000 people. We closed Ludlow in division and watched the Knicks win the finals. And I think it was the greatest day of my life. Unpermitted watch party. I never pulled a crowd like that. Yeah, unpermitted watch party.

20:32For the people, by the people. We're not a big biz. I mean, it cost us a good deal of money. We'll make it back in other ways. It was just a community event. Yeah. Well, okay. Baklava 101 here. It's a pastry made of paper-thin phyllo dough topped with chopped nuts and syrup. Even thinner than paper-thin ours. Ours are 40 layers of see-through thin dough. We're only using Gaziantep Turkish pistachios, which are known to be the best in the world. Is that your best seller, the pistachio? That's our only seller. We refuse to put any other nuts in them because it's not baklava if there's other nuts in it, in my opinion.

21:09I'm sure I'll run into some issues if I say that super publicly, but that's my take on it. Wow. And so when you're out in the streets, how much do you take with you? So I have huge trays of 96 pieces. And on a good day, you know, a good day for me is two on a Monday, six on a weekend. And then if we're at a music festival like Coachella or something, that could get up to 15. It gets crazy sometimes. 15 trays each of which has about 100 pieces approximately 15 1400 pieces of bakuban wow and so it's like a park hustle gone wild and how much for a piece and honestly is this an opportunity for you to for you to raise prices um i'm gonna keep it the same i do joke it's market price if we have to like drive cross-country in a van and take some risks the price does get a little increase but then if it starts raining it also plummets so i joke it's market price market price has been three pieces for ten dollars for approximately like three and a half years.

22:04We're not going to let inflation hit it. But if we have to drive cross country, we got to pay for that gas somehow. Three for 10. Your brand, I understand, is Good Baklava. Do you have that on your t-shirt? I understand your t-shirt has a bit of a message. So we have a bunch of fun, different merch. We make themed merch as well. Our site is goodbaklava.net where you can see all of it. And our slogan is no drugs because we're in these fun places that fun people like to go. So like people are like in the pistachios from Turkey are so green. They look different than the California ones. So people think that there's weed in it.

22:41And I'm like, no, I'm sober. I've been sober over five years. I used to have other hustles that would get me in trouble. This one has got me in trouble. It will never get me in the same trouble I used to get in. Well, it's good to hear. Now, are you serving Knicks fans or are you a fan yourself? So I grew up in the kingdom of New Jersey as a Knicks fan. When I was a kid, I was in the Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter era. It was awesome. And then I kind of grew up. I started kind of partying. And like, I ate mushrooms and had this whole kind of take that sports are like the worst. I got sober.

23:16And then I'm like, nah, I think sports are the best. So I'm back in New York City. I live here. I've lived here for a while. I need a team. And it seems like the Knicks need an unofficial Baclaba guy. So it's a pretty good match, if you ask me. Am I hearing you're a converted Knicks fan then? Is that what you're saying? Fully converted Knicks fan. I will definitely be at some games next season. I'll definitely be bringing that baklava with me. Okay. At games next year, where are people going to find you on the street? MSG. I like to go to fish concerts also. So I'll be at MSG a couple times this summer.

23:49I'll be back for New Year's with the baklava. There's going to be some shows in between. But next season, you'll see me on the corner of 7th and 33rd giving out free baklava to make sense. I think we'll go all the way next year, too. Roy Donk, hey, thanks for the time. Thanks for staying clean. Appreciate it. Take care. Rock and roll. Thanks so much for having me. Let's go, Nix. To paraphrase a contemporary poet of social media, my baklava's Turkish, my parade is non-denominational. My podcast subscribed, Nix in 5.

24:27But seriously, you should follow this podcast if you're not already. Click that follow button. And if you are following us, leave us a rating on Apple Podcasts or wherever you're listening. It really helps us. And thanks. Hear It Now anytime comes from NPR and WBUR Boston. Today's stories were produced by Julia Corcoran, Lynn Mennegan, and Wilder Fleming. Today's editors were Mark Navin, Micaela Rodriguez, Michael Scotto, and Kat Welch. Technical direction from Caleb Green and Andre Peralta. Our theme music is by Mike Moschetto, Max Liebman, and me, Chris Bentley. Our digital producers are Alison Hagen and Grace Griffin, and here and now's executive producer is Alan Price.

25:04Thanks for listening. We'll be back with you tomorrow.