Sephora & Olive Young Predictions: The Beauty Trends That Will Define 2026

25:26And so I think that there is going to be, again, these movements of building in public. What is the next iteration of that? It is really teaching people. I might disclose that I'm making $100 million, but like, I'm still not taking a salary more than$150 ,000 a year or even$400 ,000 a year. So I think that there's going to be a feeling for founders to want to connect, want to share. And it's like, what is 2.0 of being a founder led brand? And I think it's actually bringing the consumer along on the journey. So being able to disclose like, where is that money going? And I think it'll be even more interesting for creator-led brands because a lot of the time, one of the through lines that I've seen is part of the reason why people want to be a creator-led founder brand is that they don't have to take a salary.

26:16They can make all of their money from their brand deals. And even that level of transparency, like Chelsea Park often says that. She's like, I make$0 from Park. I put it all back into the business. That's why she's one of the founders that has disclosed her numbers. She's been honest. I make all of my money through my brand deals. So I think that in the world of brand building, and especially just like the sheer volume of content, we are just about to see a lot more people manufacture that vulnerability because it doesn't come easily. There are a lot of cons to doing it. The biggest one being that expectation of people that you can afford to pay something.

26:53We even saw that when we disclosed our fundraise. Newsflash. was like the rates that we were once quoted for doing certain creative concepting or photo shoots or graphic design, 10X. And we were like, wait, where is this coming from? But then when I sit back and I think about it, we're even the same way when someone discloses the fundraiser. We're like, oh, they just came into a bunch of capital. They're not running a leaner machine. But I think that, again, we are about to see the breakout stars, like the age of the ordinary influencer is dead, the average influencer, it is going to become the iconic influencers and the expert-led influencers.

27:32And I think that those expert-led influencers are really going to start to disclose their numbers. I mean, it goes back to everything we're talking about. There's so many threads back to authenticity, humanity, and it won't just be enough to be like, hey, I'm the face of a brand and come and buy it because I'm a founder and you know who's actually making the product, you're going to have to go the level deeper. And so I think that ties into your next prediction, which is like, when you share things, it gives people the permission to have an opinion of it, which sometimes might not be liked. But in order to be liked by some people, you have to be disliked by others.

28:09So you're feeling like being disliked will really be a badge of honor in 2026, which will bring out the humanity of your haters. And when chat is known to agree with you. Like we're all in validation mode. So how can we break out and have that like difference of opinion and thought and celebrate that going into 2026? Did you see Nikki Glaser's Golden Globes to Leonardo DiCaprio? Yeah, I loved it. So you know, when she says this line where she was like, that was cheap, like, you know, we just don't know anything else about you. Like your last interview was in the 90s. And all we know is like, do you still eat pasta?

28:45that is actually all we know of leonardo dicaprio and the fact that he dates really young women and i say that because to your point like whenever you do put yourself out there whenever you are sharing your opinion you are going to get a volume of hate from the opposing side against that for us the only thing on leo is the fact that he dates young girls but imagine if he was doing interviews you can pick apart every single thing that someone says and manufacture your own narrative And I think especially in the world where chat is known to agree with you I think anyone listening to this that uses chat gpt like there are times where i'm like hey Are we looking at the same document like you're just complimenting me and this is actually like not at all what I was asking You to do I was asking you to poke holes in this and I think that Even in stephen's episode bringing it back to there.

29:33It's like You are never going to be able to find your community if you are not able to have another group of people that really disagree with what you're doing. That is a very hard lesson because even looking at some of the comments from Steven's episode, they were like, the interviewer really needs to like let him finish and not jump in and not give her personal experience. Like we are here to listen to Steven and not necessarily her. Well, my style is not interviewing. It is a conversation. It is a back and forth where it's two people's opinions. It is two people's lived experiences. If you went out for dinner, which is how I've talked about my content journey from the beginning, like my number one piece of advice for any person who wants to build a personal brand this year, which is a non-negotiable, it is write down the topics that you would authentically talk about at a dinner with a friend.

30:27That is where your sweet spot will be creating content because you won't burn out from it. And if I was at dinner with someone, I wouldn't be asking them a million questions and never relating, never taking in what they were actually saying and giving something back. That is a Q &A type style. And that's just not our style of interrogation. And so I think that that, again, looking at the comments from that interview, there's maybe over a thousand. There are probably over a hundred comments ripping apart my interview style. And as much as that is hard to read, and thank you for deleting some of them, it also made me feel a lot closer to the people who just thought that conversation completely changed their year.

31:11And it's something that I can't act like some guru. I don't feel those lows too. I definitely do. And it's so interesting to be on the other side now of that volume of criticism. But you won't get any positive reinforcement without that criticism in today's world. And I actually think the more that you get that, the more that you feel you're being pushed closer to the people who need to see your message. So when you are getting that hate and that criticism, it is going to feel like a badge of honor. Like, wow, I'm actually building something that people really don't like. Again, a key lesson from the Lindsay Carter episode.

31:48The set active sales were never better than when they were in their worst controversy ever. Think about that. That is shocking. and it's a harsh reality for people for the keyboard warriors who think like i'm gonna blow up this person's day and tear them down and make them feel awful about themselves guess what if you're in the right frame of mind you use it as fuel and it activates the base who actually care about you to circle around put their arms around you and be like i love you set active i love you hsr like i could never love you more and that's like how you really find your people. And so I think going into another prediction, which we've kind of talked about, is like human generated will replace the blue checkmark or even like AI generated.

32:32And I think that goes back to this of like, be human. 2026 is the year we get hot, smart, and rich. But there is such a thing as being too hot. And that's what happens when you run as hot as I do when you sleep at night, I didn't realize how much of a difference your sheets make. Truly. One of the biggest upgrades I made was investing in sheets that actually keep me cool so I can get the eight hours of sleep I need to perform at my best this year. I kept seeing cozy earth everywhere. So I finally tried them because I could return them hassle free. HSR, not only do these keep me cool at night, but they are the softest sheets I have ever felt.

33:17Perfect that they now sponsor my show. And now is the time. It's the new year, the perfect moment for a reset. And if you don't love them, you can return them hassle-free. I'm so excited to be partnering with Cozy Earth because they stand by their product with a 10-year warranty. So visit CozyEarth.com and use my code HSR for 20 % off. So one of the ones that I want to jump to because I think that I got a lot of questions on after I posted this was around family offices becoming more well-known in the consumer brand space and VCs will become a waste of time. So I think consumer VCs are way too nervous and they are not actually willing to take the bets that like the VC industry was founded upon, which was like true innovation in Silicon Valley to move society forward.

34:12And it got slowly diluted into like, let's just find businesses that could have a really big potential upside one day, give them a little bit of money and like basically have a better outcome, hopefully a 10X. So there was a period of time in the VC world where consumer VCs were doing the same level of investment that technology companies were getting into consumer brands. And ultimately, there's not enough exit opportunities to validate that thesis. And so what ended up happening was consumer VCs realized, okay, we are really realistically only going to get a 3 to a 7x return on something like this.

34:45It doesn't make sense to put in a ton of money because we are never going to see the same outcome that a technology brand will get. And slowly over time, I think that as exit opportunities have gotten a lot more quiet, consumer brands do not IPO, like very rarely do they IPO. the consumer brand space is actually less about venture capital and it's more about private equity. It is about taking very safe, large ownership equity into companies that are growing, not at a very high risk, very high reward. It is actually very low risk, very low reward for venture capitalists, if you're being honest.

35:22Most venture capitalists today will not even look at a company unless they're doing a million dollars of sales. That is actually not true, high risk, true reward investing. It's just not. And I think having Jacqueline Johnson on the podcast is so interesting, who was just on talking about angel investing. And she made millions of dollars from a$12 ,000 check into away luggage. That is so the anomaly. That is not the norm in angel investing. That is a very lucky situation with a number of shots on goal. Family offices are these safe spaces for these consumer founders to learn more about because essentially what a family office is, it is a family that has enough liquidity to be able to have a very large diversified portfolio, usually that equates from like real estate, public markets, and private market investing.

36:14They typically do not do anywhere close to the same level of diligence. We call them like smart investors and dumb money. I wouldn't say that family offices are dumb money by any means, but it is an easier way to get an investment than a venture capitalist because it is investing their own money. And that is really the difference between venture capital where it is investing other people's money. You are running a business. You have projections. You are mapping to a very specific return for your investors that you owe them money back. Whereas with family offices, it is your own money. You don't have to answer to people when like this goes to shit.

36:50And so even for myself being in the family office world, it's like I look at the diligence that is done for family offices. And it's like, do you like the founder? Do you believe in the vision? Do you want to be a part of this? And do you kind of believe that there will be an exit one day? If so, an investment is made. That is not the case when you're diligencing a company on the venture capital sign, they are making you run through every single hoop in the book. And so I just think as a polarizing, very hot take, venture capital is dead for consumer brands. And it is all about angel investors and more so family officers until you are at a seed stage in your business.

37:26And I think so many consumer founders that DM me and ask me about it, they're like, how do I raise money? I'm running out of money. And unless you don't need money because your business is so profitable and growing so quickly, you are shit out of luck pitching to VCs until you have at least, at least a million dollars in revenue. It is a waste of your time. I have a friend who runs a beauty brand who is launching into 1800 targets this year. She could not raise venture capital money for two years of the first start of her business. She started pitching family offices. Her first check size was 250K from a family family family office yeah one call wow one call was that too did you see steven's post about his investment into gronk yes scooter brawn called him and was like i need this i need you to go into this company like that's how it gets one phone call gave him i think it was a 20x return on his investment and it's like low effort high impact low impact quadrant having to go to 100 people to maybe get one check for$50 ,000.

38:34No. And I think we also saw this with even topicals they recently raised around. All of mine had in the business of fashion disclosed like Angel Reese, WNBA star. I went the celebrity capital route because I can't even get VCs to pay attention to my brand that is doing way more than a million dollars in revenue, probably 10, 20, 30 million dollars plus in revenue. She can't even get them to pay attention to her. No, which is why I think the conversation was so interesting with Jacqueline Johnson, where she was like, I regret not raising venture capital money. And I think that that would be a different statement if it was in today's world where it'd be like, I just regret not raising money.

39:12And I think that there is a level of breathing room that raising capital gives you, but you are setting yourself up for failure if you are a consumer brand and you are pitching to venture capitalists below that threshold. It is literally a fucking waste of your time. the most fun prediction that I had which was actually like this is what I love about doing predictions and this is why I think girl boss town rose so quickly you get to see if they come true or not and be held accountable like creators are not held accountable so when things that you predict come true it is like the coolest thing ever so this just happened to me because I posted this video I think probably 10 days ago now and I was like so fed up being a creator because I'm getting these offers for brands and it's like mandated three story frames equals one story set that are full that are full videos like reels basically hit these talking points you have to talk about the use cases and benefits of the product and i push back as you know on every single brand partner and i say this doesn't move the needle it actually deters the audience from buying your product when they see three story frames of the same product in a row immediately swipe off.

40:24And so it was kind of this like anger and frustration from like founder mode being like, I'm not doing this for brand partners because it doesn't work. And I am lucky enough to see the back end on a lot of our investments to know that it doesn't work. And I made this prediction that the brands that will win this year will entertain us, not sell us features and functions. And then just a week later gap i would argue one of like the best comeback stories in the last like decade honestly hollister they recently just brought on pam kaufman who is the new chief entertainment officer that is a c-level executive role at gap that's shocking huge news she's gonna oversee content licensing and entertainment and i think that this is one of the reasons that gap has had such a strong comeback.

41:17It is like Americans still do buy based on brand loyalty and you do have to invest into brand building as a US based brand. And so how do you actually do that? We've seen it work so well with the brands that prioritize these short form like movie montages where it's actual scripting of hilarious content that keeps you entertained and engaged. And in the spirit of building in public, like we when we launch this big project that we've been working on for HSR, the massive marketing moment was an unscripted show, a reality TV show that is actually a genuine representation of how this came to be because this is where content is going.

41:59And honestly, nobody does that better than Serena fucking Kerrigan. So good. She is a mastermind in influencer marketing and paid advertisements that come across as the most authentic thing. and I think that brands really need to look at a few people. If I was a brand right now listening to this, I would look at two people for this type of storytelling, Serena Kerrigan and Valeria Lipovetsky. They are two of the best brand marketers as influencers I've ever seen because I think they have earned the right to push back and this is a directive I gave to you at the beginning of the year. I said, I am not taking any brand deal that mandates features and functions and mandates three story sets because it's not authentic and it actually dilutes the leverage that we will have in the marketplace to be able to create content that will entertain our consumers.

42:48So to put that prediction out, live by that prediction in our own business, like what we talk about is not just hypothetical, do this. Like we actually apply all of these things to our own business. And then to see Gap bring on a chief entertainment officer, like that is a brand that I am watching. And I think will be a role that will become even more important in any single business. For sure. And to think Gap is probably the last business I ever would have thought would bring on a chief entertainment officer. And the fact that they have just signals like they've gone in and they've done the work and they are figuring out what is going to keep them relevant.

43:26And so like even a call back to the CIF episode where she's like, I'm a master at trend forecasting. And by the time you're already seeing the trends taking place, if you're not there, you're behind. so this is the warning to brands like if you're not thinking about your customer engagement and entertainment strategy like get on it you know what else you're going to be behind if you start launching it now is a protein brand so the last thing that i really wanted to talk about today because i think it's just the new celebrity beauty brand which the angels were begging for today by the way they were like can you please talk about celebrity protein in your celebrity segment so So the new celebrity skincare brand is the new celebrity protein brand.

44:10And it was interesting because I was reading an article on self. I think it's like self-health. Yes. And it talked about the origins of it. So when I was actually building brands for celebrities, we would put celebrities into brands and give them a fancy title. And in return, they would get equity. The first one that I can think of for the protein market is Jennifer Aniston and Vital Proteins. That was like almost a decade ago, probably. So likely, I don't know exactly how that deal was structured, but I would assume she got a certain percentage of equity. They had a really healthy exit. And she was really one of the first people that was like the face of a protein brand.

44:42Since then, we have had protein be the core ingredient that Americans are focused on consuming. Health has never been more important, I think, even to this point. Like the number one 2026 New Year's resolution for people was working out and eating healthy. It surpassed previous New Year's resolutions around saving money. It was so much based on financially before. And I think in the world of GLP-1s, it is so based on what we look like. And the one ingredient, going back to Korea, this is all connected, is focusing on ingredients. Protein has somehow become this breakout star where Americans are focused on consuming it.

45:22Celebrities and their teams see the opportunity to build these brands around this hero ingredient and bring it to market. So it has evolved from the Jennifer Aniston face of a brand that is actually run by like a pretty sophisticated team to now being the co-founders. And so we've seen obviously Khloe Kardashian with Cloud Popcorn. We've seen now most recently Mel Robbins with Pure Protein Genius, which is a 23 gram protein shot. Obviously reminds me so much of those five hour energy shots that you see right at the checkout. Do I think mel's will do well? Yes Do I think I would drink it? No I think that protein is a is a gender Neutral option for people So when you are a female launching a beauty brand you are talking to 50 % of the population Maybe a bit more but with something that is a consumable like a food and beverage You are talking to everyone.

46:22You don't have that gatekeeper anymore So I think for females we're going to start to see a lot more females start to launch protein brands I think it also is around celebrity recognition and from my years building brands for celebrities like shelf space at cash is the most Desired space in the entire store. So if you have a recognizable face I read in that article that mel robbins has over 90 million followers across platforms Wow, 90 million. That's huge. I had no idea She is a recognizable face at checkout when you are hungry You've heard protein is everywhere and you see that little shot and you're like i'm gonna have that i'm gonna have a mel robbins protein Immediate purchase.

47:08Yeah. Wow So I do understand the move into it I think that we're even seeing a lot of larger more established legacy brands make these big changes So for the first time in 17 years beyond meat has moved into the beverage aisle with a new protein drink. This is their first non-meat product in 17 years, strictly protein. And in the same article, I read that more than half Americans are trying to increase their protein intake. More than half of Americans are walking around every single grocery store thinking, I need more protein. So of course, we are about to see a gold rush into this. And I am so excited because I believe in the episode right after this one launches, we have on the celebrity trainer that does Haley Bieber, Kaya Gerber, like the it girls of LA, who also owns a protein company.

48:05And I got to sit down and ask her everything about what she is seeing in the space, what ingredients to look out for, why people are consuming so much protein, what brands you should absolutely stay away from that are totally in the pop culture zeitgeist. And it is going to be your guys' guru guide on protein because you can't believe everything that you see. And protein is completely different from another in terms of better for you. So I can't wait that that is an episode that we have lined up for people because it is going to be your guide to go grocery shopping and feel confident the things that you are putting into your cart are actually going to help you meet your goals like Haley Bieber and like Kaya Gerber.

48:45It was such a good episode. I'm really excited for that one. So with that, I think that we've wrapped it up. Yeah. So these are your HSR MSR predictions for 2026. These are my HSR MSR predictions for 2026. One of the things that I would love some feedback on because I actually did an interview last night and the beginning is so intentional when you're interviewing someone and it's like so purposeful. And I don't feel like after doing this for a year, I have a good ending. And so I would love to hear from my angels on how you best see podcasters and hosts actually wrap up and end an episode. Like, is there a specific type of question that we should ask or way that we kind of stop the show?

49:26Do you want to see the mics get pushed over and the guests leave the room and like the authentic conversation that happens after? That would be something because I always ask guests how HSR can help you. So HSR, how you can help me is figure out how to better wrap up the episodes. That would be so much fun to get your thoughts on. So send it in the angel chat because I'm always watching. I'm like a lurker in that chat. Or just DM me and I would love to hear from you. But thank you so much for coming on, Katie. And can't wait for next week's episode. Bye angels. We all have that dream trip we've been wishing we could go on.

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