Oscar Nomination Reactions & Winner Predictions

0:00So good, so good, so good. Spring styles are at Nordstrom Rack stores now, and they're up to 60 % off. Stock up and save on Rag & Bone, Madewell, Vince, All Saints, and more of your favorites. How did I not know Rack has Adidas? Why do we rack? For the hottest deals. Just so many good brands. Join the Nordiclub to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack.

0:35Welcome to Screen Talk, IndieWire's weekly podcast that brings you up to speed with the goings-on in Hollywood. I'm Anne Thompson in Los Angeles. Hello, I'm Marcus Jones, also in Los Angeles. You're in the office. I'm at home. We both got up at 5.30 this morning to deal with the the nominations. We both filed our respective stories about it. So Marcus is our awards editor, Marcus Jones. Ryan Latanzio, my co-host, is up in Sundance. But we're going to go through on Gold Derby, our sister site at Penske Media, we're going to go through all the 24 categories. Believe it or not, don't sign off. It'll be fun.

1:23On Gold Derby this morning, they have put up all the new nominations. And so you have to go in and pick what your, you know, the order that you want them to be in to, you know, the winner at the top and so forth. So we're going to do that. We're going to skip the shorts. We'll deal with the shorts later. But we're going to start with international film. And I am going to say, based on the fact that it had nine nominations so far today. I'm going to be including best picture, director, screenplay, and actors all over the place. Stellan, Skarsgård, Renat Rensvi, the two supporting actresses, which is a great big son of strength.

2:08Elle Fanning and Inga Ing's daughter Lilius. Sentimental value is going to be the frontrunner in International. What do you think is the second one? Oh, see? So I might differ. I'm going to go with The Secret Agent because here's the thing. It's been winning. I think it got it at Critics' Choice and Golden Globes for whatever that's worth. I know that's not Academy voters, but Clever Mendoza-Filo did get his moment on live TV at the Globes. Nobody. No. Oh, well. But hear me out. We'll get to it later. It also got into casting, which Sentimental Value did not. That is true. And the reason for that, because one of the casting directors explained this to me, is that they knew that, you know, the casting people did, showed up at the bake-off, right?

2:57Right. And so they explained. And in that particular case, Sentimental Value, both Stellan Skarsgård and Renat Rensvi, they were in before anything else, you know, got started on the casting side. So that was why they didn't put that in. All right, I'm going to put Secret Agent second because I think, obviously, with four nominations, it's doing extremely well, including Best Picture and casting. As you said, that was a big win for Secret Agent and Faggermura, of course, which is a big category to be in. Then, and there is a sort of Brazilian block at the Academy. Okay, documentary. On this one, I think it's going to be Perfect Neighbor, the only Netflix film to make it into the top five.

3:48Yeah, I mean, that's been huge because they've been getting iced out since My Octopus Teacher was a little too popular. I feel like any documentary too close to the sun often gets overlooked by the branch. I was surprised to see Alabama Solution nominated. Well, that's one where it's so critical of the American prison system, especially in Alabama, that I think the international voters probably responded critically. They understood what a good movie that was. And it was also one of the like-perfect neighbor in a similar way. It used technology. It used the inmates' own phones in the prison. It was very innovative in terms of how it put things together.

4:34So I would say The Perfect Neighbor, though. Cover up would have been a call. But you know what? Laura Poitras has won before. She's been nominated before. I think they weren't going to be super kind to Netflix, as you say. Yeah, I think the other reason why I agree about The Perfect Neighbor is not only is it emotional, it's innovative. It's a film that's using body cam footage, CCTV footage, et cetera, all to paint this unfortunate narrative of this neighbor. Yeah. Geeta Gambier actually really did an extraordinary feat with her editor on that one. And also she's very popular in the documentary branch.

5:23They love her. Okay, moving on to animated feature. Let's say it. We already know. You called it before. K-pop, demon hunters. We are going up, up, up. We are golden, baby. So this is a good day for Netflix on several fronts. Obviously, they had 18 nominations along with Neon. Both of them got 18 nominations altogether. But Netflix can count on this to be a winner. And they need to win a few Oscars this year instead of just racking up nominations and going home empty handed. Yeah. And it's interesting. Ultimately, I like that this is a little bit more. They've already won this category before with Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio.

6:14But just establishing Netflix as a real competitor to the Disney Pixar that's dominated this category since it was established around 2000. thousand so technically though sony made the movie okay you know yes and they let it go to netflix in a in a very controversial deal that tom rothman made it could have been so i think he got 20 million for it or something so so it's it's one of those things where uh i wouldn't say that netflix gets the credit for making k-pop demon hunters but they certainly get the credit for releasing it and putting it in not only on the platform but in theaters as well yeah all right And visual effects.

6:56I'm going to call this one for Avatar, Far and Ash, the James Cameron movie, which only got two nominations this year, which is better than nothing. Wicked got nothing. I mean, it's one of those things where like we already felt that it was going to win it before we even saw the film. And I think the film does deliver. I mean, just to see even more detail on like the Navi's faces. But this I mean, I feel like 2025 was particularly bleak in terms of visual effects. I get a kick out of The Lost Bus receiving the nomination, but I can't help but try to mirror like the sentient fire that like whips down the mountain whenever I talk about it.

7:43That being like its primary effect, which I guess still looked better than The Wolves that were in Frankenstein, which is not nominated. Pay attention to the Bake Off because there was word out of the Bake Off that Lost Bus did really well there. And so they were right. They were right. All right. For Best Sound, of course, the news of the day is that Surratt got into the category. But I'm going to call, oh, this is an interesting case. What do you think is going to win? This isn't obvious to me. Is it obvious to you? It isn't. F1, I understand. because it's the car sound so far. But I do think in terms of live performance capture, I mean, Sinners was really wonderful.

8:34I'm right now looking up what won last year to see if people cared about the live recording of Wicked or Bob Dylan. Well, sometimes they go with the music movie. sometimes they do oh dune won last year well that's scale and scope which is what f1 is okay yeah i guess i'll go with f1 too yeah all right then best song is um k-pop demon hunters and that's the one golden right and that's the one that that netflix the other one that netflix will will win in this category i did find it really surprising i mean wicked not getting anything getting completely shut out even in best song seemed dramatic even sing half a note of either new song no no no and i'm a fan i thought the ariana grande song was stronger but ultimately the girl in the bubble yeah you didn't see a lot of events where ariana or cynthia were able to to perform these songs live.

9:44Then we go to score. In this category, I was surprised that Begonia got in. That was a shock to me. But I would definitely give this one to Sinners. This is Ludwig Goronsen's win. Yeah. Though I had Juriskin Fendrix for Begonia just because he had gotten in for poor things. And I liked the story of he didn't know what the film was gonna be. He just showed up with his music. And Yorgos found it to be just perfect, just what the film needed. I think he was given a rubric at best, but it was still a fun story. I do think that Johnny Greenwood did a great job with One Battle After Another. It's just hard to compete with the complexity of Sinners, which has so many different elements, including that extraordinary sequence that sort of put the movie over the top, the musical movie, you know, Music through history, dance sequence, which is so amazing.

10:45Yeah. Leads us to the next category. Production, design. Well, in this case, our Gold Derby Confederates are going with Frankenstein, which I will agree with. Yeah. I mean, I do think with Sinners, the juke joint is like the best location that I saw from last year's films. But Frankenstein has so many different towers and the Medusa head and everything and the labs. The frozen ship, you know. Oh, yeah. I forget about the ship. The frozen ship is my favorite thing. Makeup and hair. Hairstyling is Frankenstein also, I think. Yeah. Shout out to Mike Hill, IndieWire Honors, Wavelength winner with Jacob Elordi.

11:40The prosthetics in particular are modeled after these ivory dolls. And so it gives us this new idea of what the creature, or I guess Frankenstein's monster, could look like. And Michael had to refit the whole thing to fit Jacob Elordi, who was cast at the very last minute. And did you know, too, that he had done, why am I blank, the Justin Curzel show where he was like a prisoner of war? And so not only was it last minute, but Jacob was having to like regain all his weight because he was so gaunt from the TV show. And they still had to fit the prosthetics and get it right. They did an amazing job.

12:25We'll give that one to Frankenstein. So Frankenstein ended up with nine nominations. It looks like it's going to make most of its wins in the crafts. So best film editing. Now, one of the movies that didn't make it into this category was Hamnet, which I thought was rather significant. But on the other hand, it's a small scale movie. It doesn't have the big elements that some of the action elements that some of the other films have. So I'm going to go with our presumed best picture front runner one battle after another for this. yeah um because i do think like in terms of you were just talking about hand that when you look at the other nominee is f1 sinners marnie supreme sentimental value i think you really see a lot more style with the editing um but i think one battle after another would be my choice as well just because it's like two and a half hours long and it zips right through i never and the last sequence on the highway gives it a lot of juice.

13:32I mean, F1 certainly is a competitor, no question about that. So is Marty Supreme in Sinners. Sentimental Value, it's a sign of how strong the movie is that it got into this category, and you could argue it probably got the Hamnet slot. But I'm going to go with one battle after another. How about you? Same. Costume design. Now, the shocker here, as you wrote in your snubs and surprises piece is that Paul Tazewell did not get into this category for Wicked after having won it for the first one. But I'm going to, but the front runner all along has been Frankenstein and I think it still is. Also, it's a surprise that Avatar got in there.

14:16That's wild. But you know, once you see Varane, it's like she's probably wearing a belt as a top and I'm still like fierce. But yeah, I was going to say, so with the one thing that jumped out to me when I went to the Frankenstein exhibit and saw Kate Hawley's work is that the snow was still on like the ship's, the men on the ship's coats. And so I almost wanted to like snatch it off the mannequin and like wear it for myself. It looks like a very like avant-garde, stylish winter coat that I would have loved to have worn. though it's already like 80 degrees in LA right now. All right, we're going to go to cinematography.

15:04Now, I understand that the Train Dreams people have a Brazilian cinematographer in the running here, and his name is Adolfo Veloso, And he is going to put up a big campaign with the Brazilian branch of the academy, as it were, the bloc. So obviously Secret Agent has its supporters in the Brazilian voting community, but there seems to be some hope for Train Dreams as well. But I'm not going to go for that, for the win. I'm going to go for Sinners on that one. Well, yeah, because Autumn Gerald-Archipaugh, first woman of color nominated in the category, would be the first woman ever to win the category.

15:53Rachel Morrison was nominated and so was Mandy Walker, who was also nominated in the past. Yes. But nobody's won. You're right. So that would be a big deal. And it's the kind of thing the Academy would like to see happen, I would argue. And I think it's deserved. Not only that. So I just everything about the part of the selling point of Sinners early on was that video that Ryan Kugler did with Kodak about the different formats and how much thought they put into how the film would transfer onto theater screens. Agreed. And if you look at the film, especially in IMAX, and they shot a lot of it in IMAX, those sequences outdoors with the convertible car up against the cotton fields in the sky, they're just incredibly stunning.

16:44And again, if we talk about that music sequence in the juke joint, there's some amazing set pieces that she very much delivered. So, all right. Yeah. Casting. And then casting. I'm going to go with Francine Maisler for Sinners. She's very popular. She's very respected. She's a star. And she did a great job. I went to the American Cinematheque's Tribute to Crafts on Friday. And she received the award for casting. and it was like really interesting to just see a casting director give an acceptance speech because that's something that's going to be new for us. Well, I've seen, yeah, you and I were both at Middleburg.

17:37Right. And that was the first time I think that Nina Gold had, from J. Kelly, had the chance to be part of an interview, a Q &A. She wasn't very good. And I think that the casting directors have all been learning how to play the game. But Francine knows how already. She's very articulate, very, very smooth. Yeah. I mean, if the category had existed in earlier years, she would have already won. But now? Yeah, she's a star. Then we have original screenplay. And Ryan Kugler is going to take this one. Assuming he doesn't win director. this is the consolation prize as it always is for black filmmakers ain't it i i though also i mean if he were to win best director i feel like we'd have to wait another hundred years for another black director after won it again so um but yes i do think brian coogler is going to be up again He will be up again.

18:48So in this category, I thank God Jafar Panahi did make it in. The surprise is Blue Moon. That was a shocker. I did not think that was going to happen. And I didn't think it was going to be up for Best Picture either. But Ethan Hawke did squeak in. So I'm glad about that. I think it is kind of carried by Hawke because his performance is so like mile a minute that one thinks of the script as well. I can see that. Adopted screenplay is one battle after another, clearly. Do you agree? Yeah. I mean, I don't think there's anything else that... I mean, Hamnet's interesting in the fact that director Chloe Joult co-wrote it with the novelist Maggie O 'Farrell.

19:37I actually went back and read the book, and it's pretty cool. It's a very, very good book, And it's an interesting case to look at the book in if you've already seen the movie and recognize how it was adapted. It's fascinating, actually. I heard the film is different, but still very much in the spirit of. It isn't that different, except for there's a there's a sequence in the book where Shakespeare is cheating on his wife. They didn't put that in in the movie. I mean, Paul Meskel really wouldn't have been nominated. Meskel was, yeah, he never would have been nominated then. He was already pushing it in terms of being likable in the movie.

20:23So that was clearly not going to be in there. And the ending is somewhat different, for sure. They definitely tweaked the ending effectively. But I think that takes us to a supporting actor. We can just jump right in. Paul Meskel, not nominated. Sad about it. It's a weird thing. It's just one of those things where Jesse Buckley is sort of like Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. She's the one. She's Carrie. It's her story. And other people became more important for the voters to go for. I still think Stellan Skarsgård has the best shot to win this category. Veteran, well-liked, lots of movies under his belt, many of them big Hollywood films.

21:08What do you think? I agree. I mean, with One Battle After Another, the two actors, Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, have already won an Oscar before. And they might cancel each other out. Yeah. I was very happy to see Delroy Lindo nominated. Wonderful. That's been a long time coming, even though I probably, I think he deserves earlier recognition. Because they split, they cut out the best scene he has, the split diopter shot. Did you see that from Sinners? They cut it out? Yeah, it's something to look up. It's a really interesting shot. But yeah, I feel like because we didn't have precursors like BAFTAs out there, everyone had been questioning just how popular sentimental value would be, especially it getting iced out of the guilds.

21:57I knew those were American guilds. Right. I wasn't even worried about sentimental value. And then look at the European Film Awards. I mean, it just swept. Yeah, it did amazing. And so I think by now, knowing what we know, it's hard to deny that Stellan Skarsgård is the frontrunner. But, you know, credit to Jacob Elordi. Those performances that rely on heavy makeup as well are often Oscar contenders. And so I wouldn't totally count them out. He's got heat. Yeah. So Best Supporting Actress. Tiana Taylor will win, don't you think? Yeah, I agree. I mean, I think that there's a lot of representation for one battle after another in the acting categories.

22:43It didn't totally get all the nominations it wanted. But you have to think that voters would at least want to give the film one win. And I think Tiana Taylor is more than deserving, even if some would argue the role is controversial. But I think there's a lot of nuance there. she's handled herself extremely well in in the campaign um she's been very classy she's been you know expressing her uh who is she who is she like slabbering she was slabbering over somebody who uh she got to meet finally julia roberts that's it that's it at the golden globes that That was a good call to make. And then her outfits have been amazing.

23:33She's playing the game real well. And anyone who has seen A Thousand in One will recognize what an extraordinary actress she actually is. Okay. Then we go to, I mean, Amy Madigan would be great. I would be delighted. I think the two sentimental value actresses knock each other out. but Amy Madigan has a shot I think but I think it's still Teanna Taylor yeah though I mean I've heard some people say like if not now when for Amy Madigan I think it had been quiet for a little bit 40 years yeah so you call the best actor go for it oh as much as it paints me, I think it's Timothee Chalamet. Not to say that he didn't give an amazing performance.

24:27I am just running antithetical to what you and Ryan have said. I love it when he is at his peak confidence accepting these awards. And I've been a little down about how dour he seemed. No, we've been complaining about that too. We've definitely been complaining about that. I mean, the surprise would probably be Wagner Mora, but if it didn't happen for Fernanda, it's hard to think that it would happen for him, but he is more well-known in the States off of shows like Narcos or Dope Thief. yeah so I mean I would love that as well but I do think Timothy is kind of doing everything he has to do to get that win he's playing the game which is a little more boring but it's probably you're probably right it's probably the thing to do alright so we have Jessie Buckley nothing's going to steal it from her I don't think so I mean, yeah, at this point.

25:38And Kate Hudson getting in was a surprise to me, I have to say. I almost put her in. I debated it. I actually changed my vote at one point to Kate Hudson. I finally put her in. I couldn't let go Chase Infinity. It was just too painful. I couldn't either. I left Chase Infinity in, but it was wrong. Yeah, but here's what I'll say, because I get all these media alerts about the different campaigns that they're doing. When she did a Q &A with Demi Moore, Leonardo DiCaprio, Al Pacino, Mark Ruffalo, David O. Russell were there. She did a lunch where The Rock, Awkwafina, all these stars were there the same week as voting.

26:23She did a Q &A with her mom, Goldie Hawn, who's an Oscar winner. So she has been making every, like pulling out every stop she can to get this nomination. So, I mean, you got to give a bit of kudos to her and her manager, who you've talked about plenty of times, Jason Weinberg. No, Jason Weinberg definitely delivered on this one. He called it. He said if she gets SAG, she's going to get the Oscar. That's what he said. Well, here's the thing. He backed it up. They really worked to back it up. They got the club, obviously, the nomination. But Jesse Buckley, it's kind of undeniable. Okay, so Best Director, after 11 nominations for various different categories, it is time for Paul Thomas Anderson to win the Best Director Oscar.

27:10And I don't think, even though, as we've discussed, Ryan Coogler is totally deserving, and even Joaquin Trier, you know, is obviously very respected here. I don't think anything will take it away from PTA. Okay. Here's my thing. The fact that a black director has not won best director is ever present. I've pre-written so many articles about so-and-so becomes the first black filmmaker to win best director. And so that's something that's ever present in this race as well. Given the narrative around Paul Thomas Anderson is that he just hasn't won an Oscar period. He's been nominated 11 times in several different categories.

28:00And so all I'm saying is something to consider. The constant snub of this particular category could be more top of mind than the fact that this person who is going to win an Oscar in March has never won an Oscar. I think that there is a lot of love for sinners. Yeah. And if anything, I thought Hamnet would be the one to challenge one battle after another. And things change in the second phase. In phase two, the momentum can completely shift for a movie. And it's possible that one battle after another has peaked. and that all these wins that it's had are not going to continue. I don't think that's true.

28:52I think there's enough wind in the sails there for it to go all the way. But if something were to catch up with it, it would be Sinners now, I believe. Which I do think, because I think the most frustrating part is it was so predestined. Even when we were talking about one battle after another before it ever came out, It was that Sinners looks really strong as an Oscar contender, but if one battle after another, despite whatever it does at the box office, gets good reviews, it is going to become a priority for Warner Brothers. and it came out and it got the best reviews of the year. So it's more than deserving, but it does suck in a way that the fact that one battle after another could overshadow Sinners was already in the ether before the film even ever came out just because they're the same studio.

29:48Right. Well, we've done it. We have to do Best Picture. Yeah. This picture is the last available category. Now, in this case, there's 10 movies, obviously. And we just discussed it. I mean, it is one battle after another versus sinners. That's it. That's the argument we just had. Yeah. I mean, how are we? Well, OK. How well do we think we're saying all of this? And then I think Hamnet is going to win at BAFTAs. So I'm almost like I'm going to be a bully. A lot of attention of BAFTAs. And Hamnet, in a way, leans into the international vote, the way sentimental value does. And sentimental value is strong.

30:33It is very strong. And so is, by the way, Train Dreams. Yes. Train Dreams is one of those movies that looks like a best picture, feels like a best picture, has the emotions of a best picture. It's just very small. And it's Netflix, which, you know, the voters don't like. So, you know, I would put Train Dreams higher up than the bottom of the list. Right. Ahead of Begonia, Shay. I'd probably put, let's say, F1 at the bottom. Yeah, no, F1's at the bottom. And then The Secret Agent, and then Begonia, and then Train Dreams, and then Sentimental Value. I'd probably put Secret Agent higher than Train Dreams.

31:18I think Train Dreams is higher than F1 and Begonia. But yeah. No way of really gauging that, except maybe, maybe Secret Agent got four nominations. So that gives it a little more juice. It's a question of who's seen these films. You know, and, you know, I the steak eaters obviously voted for F1. Right. Do you like Marty or Frankenstein more? I think Frankenstein's ahead of Marty, even if Josh Safdie got into director. Well, there's we talked about this. There's five dominant movies that won the that got nominated for the PGA, the DGA and the Screen Actors Ensemble. And those movies are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein, and Marty Supreme.

32:10And those five are really the leaders across the board. And it is harder to go up against them, I think. So the question is, what order are they in? And I would go with One Battle After Another first, followed by Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein, and Marty Supreme. okay i have one battle sinners hamlet sentimental value frankenstein um and then one supreme also so hamlet got eight nominations by the way let me just say this right out loud and clear the number of nominations is irrelevant there have been movies like lincoln or whatever you know they got like 11 nominations and one two or there have been movies that have gotten enormous numbers of nominations and won nothing.

33:03I mean, Martin Scorsese had two, right? Killers of the Flower Moon and The Irishman. That's right. Got a bunch of nominations, no wins. One thing I wanted to point out in terms of, we're talking about this Best Picture race, and I thought it was a funny stat, but it could be illuminative when talking about BAFTAs. There was almost zero British actors nominated in the acting categories. Until Delroy Lindo, who we know as an American actor, but was born in the UK. And Woonmi Misaku got Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. BAFTAs. You know, not... They've been pretty predictive. Not historically the place where performers of color...