Paramount Trumps Netflix in Warner Bros. Sale; BAFTA’s Complex Controversy; Anticipating the Actor Awards

0:06Anne Thompson:Welcome to Screen Talk, IndieWire's weekly podcast, bringing you up to speed on what's going on in Hollywood. There's a lot going on. I'm Anne Thompson in Los Angeles.

0:16Ryan Lattanzio:And I'm Ryan Lattanzio in New York. And yeah, if you are reporting in the industry, it has been a somewhat brutalizing week. This week, we're going to look at the impact of the BAFTAs on the Oscars and how I Swear and John Davidson took over the narrative of the show. Meanwhile, the Berlin Film Festival has seen its own tempest brewing. And this weekend, we're also going to preview two big Guild Awards. We got the PGA and SAG's Actor Awards, still getting used to calling them actors, not SAG Awards. But first, we're going to need to talk about some seismic late-breaking news that took place Thursday night, which is Paramount declaring victory over Netflix in the bid for Warner Brothers Discovery.

0:55Anne Thompson:Well, the photograph that ran online that is haunting me is a picture of Ted Sarandos. Well, there's two pictures. There's one of Ted Saranda. It's sort of like one of those things they put online. Ted Sarandos arriving in Washington, arriving at the White House to have a meeting with Pam Bondi. And then there's the picture of him leaving. And he looks shattered. He looks... Crestfallen. I'm not, I'm not, I mean, obviously I'm projecting onto his face, but he looks ashen. He looks haggard. Yes. And so I know I'm reading into that, but he made this announcement. They made the announcement. Netflix withdrew from the bidding just a few hours after that meeting.

1:42Anne Thompson:So my sense, I think this is, you know, I'm guessing because I don't know what happened in the meeting, but the meeting had been set two weeks prior. So it wasn't new. It was something they had set up. And the thing about this is that Ted Sarandos really was trying to make this work. If you listen to his interview with Matt Bellany, he's very competitive. He's very, he's trying to sell everybody on why it's a good deal and everything. But I think that the reality of the Washington politics and the regulatory oversight they were going to come in contact with, I think that just really doomed them.

2:19Anne Thompson:And he got out while the going was good. And he always did say, as we have a quote, you know, that the transaction was always a nice to have at the right price, not a must have at any price. That's what the two co-chief executives stated in there. But that's the thing. If you think about it, that meeting and then just a few hours later, the press release. I mean, they did not wait. They had four days to make this decision. So basically what happened is that Netflix announced that it would not improve its$83 billion December offer to buy the Warner Brothers studio and HBO. The streamer walked away from the deal after Paramount Skydance upped its bid for the entire Warner Brothers Discovery package, including cable assets and CNN, to$31 a share.

3:07Anne Thompson:That's a$111 billion deal. And Netflix had initially won the bidding, had a chance to counteroffer, but declined to do so. So, Ryan, what is your reaction to this?

3:22Ryan Lattanzio:Well, it's early days, but in this moment where corporate monopolies are de rigueur, I do feel somewhat numb. I know a lot of people are gutted and shocked and they have very confused feelings. Now, I mostly am left with a lot of questions in this Paramount takeover scenario. This is not a vertical merger, which is the idea that Ted Sarandos was at least proposing with Netflix. Netflix was only going to take on Warner Brothers film and HBO Max and HBO and not necessarily all of its other linear channels and properties and so forth. Which are in decline in general.

3:57Anne Thompson:Yes.

3:57Ryan Lattanzio:Yeah. Yeah. And so I don't know how Paramount, even though it is promised so, can maintain their respective studio output alongside Warner Brothers' current output, especially as Paramount is taking on a huge amount of debt worth more than half of the sale price. And when you think about something like there's some parallels to the AT &T and Time Warner merger, and that obviously didn't go very well, you know, almost 10 years ago now. And so I worry that offsetting that debt is going to portend an acceleration of all the existential threats that are already stalking the industry, such as relying on AI slop at all levels and regurgitating familiar IP once again.

4:35Ryan Lattanzio:Also, we're going to see a lot of layoffs, cost-cutting, consolidation. When Disney acquired Fox, more than 4 ,000 people lost their jobs because you identified duplication and redundancy. Why would you have Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network when you could just have one family kid's channel? And then, you know, what happens to Pam Abdi and Mike DeLuca, who are coming off a great year and with Warner Brothers with an industry leading 30 Oscar nominations? Or what happens to the recently created Warner Brothers contemporary specialty label led by those three neon veterans? I think overall we're facing a situation where this company is going to own at least 40 percent of the box office.

5:16Ryan Lattanzio:And it just means we're going to see fewer movies and far less room for innovation.

5:21Anne Thompson:Yeah. I mean, the scenario that you cite with Fox and Disney is unfortunately the likely scenario. And they have to get rid of a lot of, I mean, I think the number ranges from 6 billion to, according to Saranda, 16 billion in cuts. And they have to, you know, in order to function. And that means layoffs. That means getting rid of a lot of people in a time when a lot of people already are struggling for employment here in Hollywood. Netflix looks smart. It's an interesting thing. At the very beginning of this, a lot of people were crying in their beer about Netflix. like, so the horrible Netflix that hates theaters and everything.

6:11Anne Thompson:And of course, Sarandos was insisting that he would follow Windows and run Warners as a separate studio. And I believe him. You know, he was going to try to see if he could make that business work. But now they collect a$2.8 billion termination fee paid by Paramount. Their stock has already gone back up. It was struggling. The shareholders were reportedly nervous about the pending deal. So part of that face that Sarandos had, I think, was recognizing reality that the world was telling him that he had to get out of this deal and not to pursue it further. And he may have been disappointed about that.

7:00Anne Thompson:But at any rate, he's a disciplined businessman and they come out ahead in the end. And they look like they're disciplined people. I don't think, but in the end, the Hollywood reaction now, after all these months have gone by, everybody was coming around to recognizing that the relatively, quote unquote, woke Netflix and having CNN go off into a different universe was a good thing. And and and there are good business people. They know how to run a company. They they're they're forward thinking. I don't have any confidence in Paramount, you know, the Ellisons and what they're going to do with CBS, with CNN.

7:53Anne Thompson:This is part of Trump's agenda.

7:55Ryan Lattanzio:They want to control CNN is my I mean, this is a highly plausible, fascinating and horrifying conspiracy theory going around that basically this is all on the heels of the midterm elections. Larry Ellison is bosom buddies with Trump. I mean, Ellison was ready to green light a fourth Rush Hour movie at Trump's behest. And Brett Ratner, who was accused of sexual assault and was recently seen in photos with young women in the Epstein files. So there are a lot of conspiracy theories to be had around this news aspect of it.

8:26Anne Thompson:Now, the head of CNN is denying that there's a merger with CBS, or at least what he's really saying is don't jump to any conclusions until it happens. So we shall see. But it isn't going to be good. It isn't going to be good. It's going to mean that this administration is in control of most of the major news outlets. Culture. Yeah. All right. On that dour note, we can return to discussing our usual beat. Is there more you want to say, Ryan?

9:02Ryan Lattanzio:No. So, yeah, Anne, there were some big surprises at BAFTAs last weekend. What do you think their impact on the Oscars is?

9:09Anne Thompson:Well, mostly it opens up the two supporting actor races because both winners were surprises. They weren't the frontrunners. Wunmi Masaku is the local hero. And I think the voters wanted to give Sinners a win. And Sinners did very well. I mean, obviously, one battle after another got the six big awards. But they like Sinners, too, and gave it an original screenplay, which is what you would expect and score, you know, for Ludwig. But what we will look forward to at the Oscars is another matter. You know, is it going to be Tiana Taylor? And is it going to be Wunmi? moving forward, going forward with that heartfelt, warm, centerpiece performance that sort of holds Sinners together with the two brothers played by Michael B.

10:06Anne Thompson:Jordan. I don't know, honestly, Ryan. I want to see what happens at SAG, and that's the same thing as the Sean Penn win. Now, the deal there is that Sean Penn never won at the BAFTAs, and one battle after another did push him forward, and he's probably the best-known star of the bunch. He's won two Oscars, so that does matter back in La La Land. But he isn't beloved in Hollywood. He's been a bad boy for years, even if he has philanthropy on his side. Do you agree with that, Ryan?

10:45Ryan Lattanzio:I do. I don't know. Maybe those stories have not made it across the pond, though I can't believe that they haven't. I mean, yeah, it's not a very British role, obviously, and I certainly don't peg Sean Penn as a UK icon, but probably they were amused by this particular archetype of this racist colonel who had a fetish for black women. It's a complex, interesting role and a very good performance. Also, I don't know if that will repeat at the Oscars for the reasons that you're saying.

11:18Anne Thompson:Is Sean Penn going to win SAG? He might. I briefly, I still say SAG. I know it's called the Screen Actors Awards now. They still say SAG, I'm sure. Most people do, at least for the moment. Because they're the Guild Awards. SAG is the Guild. The thing about SAG is that it's not always predictive. It is often predictive, but not always. They don't always match up. And I do think in this case, you could see Sinners winning SAG for Best Ensemble. The SAG awards voters have leaned into mainstream movies with Black casts before, and that includes The Help, it includes Hidden Figures, and it includes Black Panther.

12:03Anne Thompson:So it's possible that they would go with Sinners in this case. It wouldn't be a surprise to me. Now, what's the one that's winning everything all the time? One battle after another. So it could go either way. But that's the other thing. I mean, is Tiana Taylor a given because she's in one battle after another? Or could it go with one Mimasaku or Amy Madigan, who's up for a SAG award and is being talked about?

12:29Ryan Lattanzio:Amy Madigan's a long beloved actor who gave a very real transformation here, which they always love and has stood up for actors' causes over the years. So it could be any of those three. This is a completely wide open.

12:42Anne Thompson:I agree. The two supporting actor races are hard to call. And when we see what happens at SAG, we will have a better idea what might happen at the Oscars. So do you think Sinners could win Best Ensemble? Do you agree with that?

12:55Ryan Lattanzio:I was going to say I think Sinners will win that category. Just because what you're saying, I mean, all these other movies you're using as exemplars. In those same years, there were other movies that were also winning everything. So it's very possible for SAG to go in an errant direction in this category.

13:11Anne Thompson:They often do. They often do.

13:13Ryan Lattanzio:And there's a whole groundswell now that's suggesting that sinners could win Best Picture. We'll have to see what happens at the PGA Awards. I'm more skeptical.

13:21Anne Thompson:That's what's going to tell us that answer. They are predictive. They are really predictive. Almost always. Not always, but almost always. And I will say here and now, the one battle after another will win the PGA. and it will win the Oscar for Best Picture and Director and Adapted Screenplay. Those things I'm confident about. I really am. And Sinners will win Original Screenplay, and it will win Score, and Frankenstein will win Costume. If you go down the BAFTA craft lists, you could just transfer them all over to your Oscar ballot, except for one category, which is cinematography. That, I'm pretty positive, is going to go to Sinners.

14:10Ryan Lattanzio:Yes, I agree. Autumn Duralde-Akipa, and this would also make her the first female cinematographer winner.

14:17Anne Thompson:Correct. And that's one of the reasons why I think that's going to happen. And the other reason is, I mean, the only other thing is, I don't know about you, but just judging from what's coming in on my emails and social media, there are huge, I mean, Netflix does not give up. They do not abandon hope. They are pushing for Train Dreams to win in cinematography, pushing hard. And it did win at the Spirit Awards. But I think that's not likely. I still think it'll be sinners.

14:50Ryan Lattanzio:It's more of a niche choice, for sure. But, you know, I think Netflix has reason to hold out hope for Jacob Elordi, also winning Best Sporting Actor at SAG. And I realize you and I have kind of differed in our thoughts about where that will go with the Oscars, but he's still certainly a spoiler in that category.

15:06Anne Thompson:And I just think he's very young. I think he's very hot right now, though. He's popular. And I think that's more likely to sway the SAG voters. I've toyed with the idea of picking a Lordy for best actor at SAG. I think he will win the SAG award. You do. Over Sean Penn.

15:25Ryan Lattanzio:Over Sean Penn. Sean Penn's already got a few SAG awards. I mean, not that that really matters, but in this case, I think Jacob Elordi, there's a lot of support for him.

15:34Anne Thompson:You know, apparently the screenings that he was. People are going wild in these. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't know. You can't. As we say, these categories, these two supporting categories, anything can happen. So, all right, let's go back to Bath. But you agree that one battle after another will win the PGA and the Oscar.

15:57Ryan Lattanzio:Yes. God, and just me just consenting and agreeing. It's like, it's getting really painful this award season. It's going on for a long time.

16:06Anne Thompson:Well, the Olympics always mess things up when this happens.

16:10Ryan Lattanzio:All right. So the other story that has been dominating headlines all week, and why don't you just walk us through what happened when presenters Delroy Lindo and Michael B. Jordan came out on stage.

16:21Anne Thompson:So they were offering the first award of the night for VFX, which was, of course, won by Avatar, Fire, and Ash. But the two of them stood there while the N-word rang through the hall. And it was because John Davidson, who is the subject of a movie called I Swear, which I saw, and this man went through terrible things and came out shining as an advocate for others with this difficult condition, which puts every sufferer in the crosshairs of the people they manage to insult on a daily basis because they have no control over the words that come out of their mouth. And they're often the worst words, the words you should not say in each situation.

17:05Anne Thompson:It's a very strange and bizarre condition. And when you see the movie, you understand it. But most people haven't seen the movie. By the way, the star of the movie, Robert Aramayo, won Best Actor at BAFTAs. That's how popular the movie was in Britain. And he beat Chalamet for Best Actor. So you can see how, I mean, for example, John Davidson, actually, you know, the movie begins with him worried about blurting the wrong thing as he accepts an MBE from Queen Elizabeth in 2019. So he's been through this stuff before. He gets it. But I understand why the BAFTA producers wanted him to share in the celebration of the movie.