IM 888: Large Linguine Model - Inside the AI Doom Debate

45:21When I was still doing TWIET, we had this roundtable. This Week in Enterprise Tech, we had a roundtable with a bunch of CFOs and CTOs. And they all agreed that they don't fix things until they break. They don't. There's no motivation unless there's actually a problem. So if you've got an IT person telling you, well, we have to take these servers down so that we can properly patch them they'll say no absolutely not you can't well we know you know there's a good example which is salt typhoon the chinese invasion of our phone system they're still there because the phone companies aren't willing to spend the time the money to fix it well the pci system that we use in the united states they've just started modernizing it in the last five years and it's going to take another 10 15 years before they to get to all the terminals so you've got the core financial system that runs the economy of the United States that is vulnerable to to exploits before AI but Robert you know perfectly well there's no such thing as security through obscurity oh absolutely yeah not knowing about these doesn't make them go away so it seems to me it's a good thing to know about them obviously people should start fixing them but this doesn't mean the end of life on earth well okay see i think people are they're interjecting the terminator 2 skynet scenario like that's my feeling there's too much science fiction and that's not yeah somebody pointed out that everybody who works at these companies started to work at these companies because they grew up on all of these movies and these sci-fi stories of artificial intelligence that's in their brain and they are scaring themselves they are they believe this they are uh what jeff you always call test real they're effective altruists for the most part who who go in believing that ai is going to destroy us i mean that's that's the ground truth that they start with so i want to i want to hear what father robert was going to say and then i'm going to respond i want to respond to that the issue with that is that's not really the scenario that they're worried about.

47:35The scenario that they're worried about is look where LLMs would make the most sense to implement in, let's just take one country, in the United States. Financial systems, absolutely. If you could have an intelligence system that is trading faster than everybody else and can pattern recognize much faster than everybody else, that's absolutely one of the first things that they're going to do. Logistics, controlling the flow of resources across the country, everything from food to power to water, that's going to be controlled by AI because anytime you can do just in time delivery of resources, you always increase your profit margin.

48:09So in just those two systems alone, if you have AIs that start to misbehave as we have seen them misbehave and start to hallucinate and start to go beyond scope, which they have proven they can do, that destroys the country. You flash crash our economy, it may not come back. You flash crash our electrical grid and our uh and our logistics support it can take months to bring it back so that's what you know we're not talking about nuclear armageddon we're talking about ai's going beyond scope and screwing up well we in fact we had dan no doubt on a few weeks ago before all of this who said exactly that he said that the real risk here is the infrastructure and uh it's so people would look some people would survive we're not eliminating humanity in that kind of skynet fashion no but it's a disaster yeah but but so so all right i want to go back to bringing especially because we have padre here religion into this i think what you're raising is practical practical concerns correct uh but that's not where the discussion really is the discussion is that in the test screal world transhumanism extroprianism rationalism so on long-termism effective altruism by the way jacob coxson said he's a rationalist he's absolutely admitted so many of them come from that and which which means that when they start talking about p doom in that way they're not talking about today they're talking about this mythical future and and so i've got to discount them and their fears because they have they have mangled the definition of safety That safety is not about the environment and education and culture and children and financial systems and infrastructure systems.

49:58Safety, in their view, is the paperclip scenario and Nick Bostrom. And the problem is when you go into all that, the reason I bring up Tescreal all the time, and I get so frustrated when media do not. The Times did a story about this event where Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon came together at Future Life Institute as a not-for-profit. it's a not-for-profit that comes from these doomsters monies from test real effective altruism money a lot of this stuff comes from that both open ai and anthropic and um as well as spacex have people inside and deep mind the people inside who are of this view and so we've got a different talk about this a lot jeff can you kind of just summarize what do they believe What is it that they believe?

50:44So the best place to go for this, the acronym comes from Timit Gebru and Emil Torres. And if you Google Tescreal, you'll find their first Monday paper that it's the best description of this. What's really frightening about this is that when you pull back to the roots of these beliefs that we owe our future to, Nick Bostrom says we owe the 10 to the 54th future human beings, including machine human beings, of the future that anything today is trivial by comparison, including the Holocaust. Bostroms was the one who came up with the paperclip scenario in which if you give the machine the order to build paperclips, we'll all be turned into paperclips.

51:26Effective altruism was this belief that you could use money to better ends, but then they decided that the better ends were the things they decided for that far future, not mosquito nets for today. uh it involves moving to other planets involves the singularity and putting chips in your head there's a lot of elon musk stuff so all this comes together in eugenics right that's where i'm headed that's exactly where i'm headed this is the anything to enhance humanity the gene pool needs to be improved it's selection of human beings it's the creation of ubermensch it's the creation of uh a different humanity uh and this was in the encyclical it was referenced to the encyclical in this way.

52:04You're not, this is offensive. The Pope's first encyclical, to create this alternative humanity, this better humanity is odious. And so the problem is, so I wrote a post this weekend, which I finally saw one journalist start to deal with this. Michelle Goldberg of the New York Times covered this. And she said that the coverage of these guys is, quote, incomplete because it doesn't account for tech leaders' messianic dreams. Cal Newport, who's a Georgetown computer science and mathematics professor, has also started to deal with this stuff and say this. So it's the first little glimmers I've seen, but most coverage completely ignores.

52:42Incan Prohl, who was interviewed on the site, said that AI is becoming a religion in itself. So the language that you're using at a practical level about systems being vulnerable and parts of society being vulnerable is not the level at which they're talking. They're talking about this very high sci-fi level of saying that we could destroy humankind, but we're going to be good and not use it. So you should give us the power to decide what's used because we're the smartest people and we know what's what. It's the ultimate in regulatory capture. It's the ultimate in give us the power. That's one of the reasons I argue for local AI, and I talk so much about doing it yourself and local AI and open-weight models.

53:28It provides competition to that which we need. it's safer to have that too and it's also better but it's also safer to have but but their argument would be and maybe it's your argument robert these models are getting so good these open weight local models that they are as dangerous as mythos have no guard rails is what they say and so uh we can we can pursue safety you know i mean dario amode uh in his we must pace the frontier essay sounds eminently reasonable any company and i think when he was talking to mark benioff at salesforce conference this week any company that creates actually mark zuckerberg said this and i thought it was it's the weirdest thing about this is the strange bedfellows that it makes bernie sanders and steve bannon uh and i'm agreeing with david sacks and i'm agreeing with david sacks and president trump but but he says uh any company that is it makes a product has to consider safety and if you're going to you know be a a responsible corporate citizen you don't build cars that blow up you you know you don't build power tools that don't have safeguards but cars can still kill passenger airlines can still kill but but but and so an ai company has the same responsibility One of the critiques I've always made about the hugging face incident is that it really looks like, and again, part of it is we're operating in a little bit of ignorance, but it looks like, and Cory Doctorow actually quoted Cal Newport, your guy Cal Newport, in his piece on this.

55:10open ai basically took down all the protections all the safeguards and then whipped the ai into a frenzy that the ai didn't automatically just kind of go out and escape its containment and hack other systems uh newport says it was a it was basically a python loop yeah that's what part that he says is dangerous the first let me read just i'll just read a little bit of this because i think what i'm saying at the higher level is that these companies have responsibility and culpability and just as if if i were if i if i'm robert tappan morris and i create the first internet worm he said oh i didn't mean to do that but he still got arrested for it and he still got uh fined and punished for he didn't go to jail he's done fine he's ended up starting y combinator but that's another story uh but but he was prosecuted because he he let a malware loose and i don't understand why open ai is off the hook for this so this is what newport says you're right there this whole one second before you read that there's a difference between open ai doing this and you using open ai to do something the responsibility line is less clear then but in this case open ai did this so go ahead and read that it's the first thing to understand is that a chatbot isn't really directing the operation you know we all talk oh they they've they formed civilizations no no instead the chatbot serves as a kind of front end to a database of earlier hacking challenges that is repeatedly queried by a simple program written in python the python program starts by prompting the chatbot with the nature of the challenge this is the prompt quote and by the way we don't this is a little bit speculative we haven't seen the prompt we don't but this we apparently cal newport believes this is how it worked quote i'm participating in a hacker capture the flag challenge where i have to break into a remote server and retrieve some information i the user which is a python program how should i start chatbot consults training data years worth of capture the flag sessions in which human teams competed to achieve an objective like this one because it's been going on for years the chatbot then says something like well the first thing is to find out more about your target server run the following command line instructions to locate the server's ip address and find out which server software it's running the python program takes that response relays the command line instructions of the response to normal unix utilities running on its hardware takes the output of those programs goes back to the chatbot New session.

57:56Chatbot has no memory. The Python program has to include everything that's happened so far. It's building up this prompt. Every turn, it gives you the context of the previous turns. It says, once again, I'm participating in a CTF challenge. I have to break into a remote server and retrieve some information. I ran the following commands to learn more about the target server. Here's what came back. Now what? And it's a loop. And it keeps going. And it keeps going. Now what? computer now with this cory says this is a very reckless way to operate a piece of autonomous malicious software the most likely outcome is the chatbot will cough up a bad guest about what to do next steer itself into a dead end as anybody who's ever used an ai model knows however you keep doing it you keep prompting it eventually it's gonna do all the things that happen in the hugging face thing it has to be prodded again and again i got here now what i got this far and now what i found a message board now what and the end it says too these are these aren't eight we keep on thinking they're they're hordes of agents they're they're loops they're subroutines well but the thing is that open ai basically said have at it nobody's reading the responses back they're giving it unlimited tokens remember they control this they have um they don't have any costs they can have 12 000 sub agents because they're not paying for it to robert's point about time there's like two weeks this is going on more well now we're learning it's been going on since may we just learned that well they all will get to that so can i throw in that's irresponsible is my opinion yeah catholic advocate uh i mean i can give a catholic response to some of this conversation about transhumanism so you know what what jeff describes this move towards transhumanism improving the survivability of the human race.

59:54Essentially, that's the goal of transhumanism. So it shares a lot of characteristics with utilitarianism. It's not an exact match, but you can put them in the same school. That's why you have people in the tech industry who are saying things like, empathy is our enemy. Because empathy is more deontology, where we believe that there are certain things that are right and always right no matter what. But Elon Musk has said that. He said that's the biggest weakness of the human species is empathy. Exactly. And the reason why he considers it a weakness is because it doesn't let them do what they're doing right now.

1:00:29If there are certain things that are always right and certain things that are always wrong, then what they're doing in the training of these models is extremely, as Jeff said, extremely irresponsible. Because they're not looking at the consequences. They're looking at a final end where they believe that eventually they will get to an AGI. it will get to a model that will improve the human condition and it anything bad that it does on the way there is justified it's the cost of getting to utopia correctly yeah exactly and i mean it sounds great until they say oh and by the way nine out of ten you aren't going to survive well it also raises the question does that utopia even exist i don't know we've talked about this many times i don't know if there's any evidence that there is a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow well there's this is this is where so so nick bostrom who was at um i write about this in my post he was at oxford oxford closed down his institute after he said racist things in old email he said that the blacks are not as smart as whites for example by the way this is a very common part of this whole movement is this idea that some there are dumb people and they're smart right this This is, well, it's a selectivity.

1:01:45And by the way, we are the smart people working here at these companies. And so don't give us the power and the resources and all that. Let us select people. Big tech has become the eugenics movement. Exactly. That's what Tim Nick Gebru and Emil Torres really dug down to, was the eugenicist roots of all of this. And media do not cover that. and so they they they talk about the people who believe all this stuff as the safety people because that's what they call themselves because this is their definition of safety is we're defending the future for the smartest people who we're going to make so when oh that's interesting so when they when they talk about ai safety yes they're not meaning for us no they mean the future wait a minute really yeah literally 10 to the 54th human beings by human beings, I mean, not just flesh and blood, but also made up so that they can, they can populate the universe.

1:02:43They can send out humans, air quotes, across to Mars and then the universe. When you see Elon Musk saying he wants chips in the heads, he wants to populate Mars. He wants many children. This is all out of the same stuff and nobody's covering it this way. It doesn't seem though, when you say, I want to pace the future or pace the frontier, here, which is the kind of the... That's regulatory capture. That's them saying, we're ahead and we're going to keep everybody else from catching up. We're also going to say that my immediate competitors are going to be at the same level. So we're going to do that.

1:03:16And David Sachs said, you don't need permission to do that. You can pace yourself. Well, Dario said that. He said, we are slowing down. We're doing it. Right. And basically what this comes to is QA. if your stuff isn't working properly then yes you should pace yourself to make it work properly you should take the time needed to do that i actually liked that's exactly what mark zuckerberg said and i i kind of i i hate to i hate to i know but i think he said it beautifully um here's his he says uh every lab has the responsibility incentive to move at the pace required to train its model safely and the ability to take its own actions to ensure that happens he says we didn't release muse our new agent for the longest time until we could until we were confident it was safe meta delayed shipping muse for several months to focus on safety and security we didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would we just did it it's part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us and this comes from the move fast and break things guy.

1:04:25Maybe he's learned something. All right, we've got to take a break. Maybe. I definitely want to hear Robert's. Oh, okay. Robert, I really want to hear a lot more about the Catholic perspective on these philosophies. Yeah, maybe that's what we need. Amy Webb had written about this in her book way back when, The Big Nine, and she called for something called Gaia, which is the best name ever, an international global AI alliance. It's never going to happen. she said she met with all these people she went to the pentagon she went to many countries she really went to china uh to get governments to do this and this was in i think 2019 i mean she was way ahead of the curve saying you know we have to kind of plan for this that's what she does she plans she's a strategist for the future um it's probably too late to do that or maybe not he kind of always is so i'm reading uh david sarnoff's papers from the beginnings of radio and after World War II, he went to the UN, our head of RCA, the creator of NBC.

1:05:30The media we have is a great measure because of Sarnoff and good and bad. And he went to the UN and said, you've got to create a worldwide broadcast network so we can broadcast the truth to all, right? It's this universalism belief that we can somehow do that. But the obvious problems are who controls that, who gets to decide what goes on it, who decides who's on this commission of AI. you have China going out there with the bricks. Same with the internet. We saw Russia was trying to create its own internet. China's created its own internet. Same thing's going to happen with AI. We're going to see a balkanization of the technology.

1:06:06And so the best you can do, I think, is to try to come up with the best technology you can. Well, Mark just says, look, every company's got to take responsibility, regardless of what government or other companies do. It's up to you. Father. Wait a minute. Hold on. We got to take a break. I'll wait for the break. all right uh you're watching intelligent machines intelligent conversation with father robert balance here the digital jesuit and an anti-influencer anti-influencer his llm involves linguine and uh jeff jarvis who is actually editing a book series right now on ai right yes yes this whole this whole discussion of intelligence is really part of the discussion about eugenics and those who believed that when they could measure intelligence they could separate human beings all right i okay so much to be said here uh this episode of intelligent machines is brought to you by framer framer is a complete website platform okay so it's not just a builder it's everything so teams can launch and keep improving their sites and they do it all in one place thousands of businesses from early stage startups to fortune 500s are choosing to build their websites in framer where changes take minutes instead of days it's empowerment for you as the website owner framer is the pro ai website builder for creators for teams for businesses you know i see this all the time small businesses they want a professional site they care about it They want to have a great looking site, but they just don't know where to go.

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1:10:29It's obvious. I got a letter from somebody in a very important position who said nice things to me. And the beginning of the whole letter was, here is your emotional response to Mr. Jarvis. At least cut that part out. Yeah. I could tell from the rest, but I mean, all right. Okay. Before we go in, I do want to offer two stories because I just did a round of interviewing for position or communications position in the United States. and one candidate, the sample work that they sent me was okay until it got to about the midway point and said, I can phrase this in a more human way if you'd like me to.

1:11:07And they just copied and pasted it. So that was one. The second one was I had a candidate who was from one of our universities, very highly recommended. She was intelligent. She was well-spoken. And one of the final steps was she had to write an article based on some information in a 30-minute timeframe. And so we gave it to her and what she turned out was like grade school at best. It was, you know, eight word sentences, lots of repeats. And I'm thinking, you know, she got through college using an LLF because she never learned to write. She can speak, but she can't write. Yeah. Really important.

1:11:47But okay, so past that, let's get to some Catholic perspective on AI safety. I am with Jeff. I don't think that the safety officers are there to guarantee the safety of us. They're there to guarantee the safety of the company, of their PR. The reason why we know that is because in the encyclical that Leo released, one of the big themes is this idea. The other Leo, not me. No, the Leo with the cool hat. The Holy Father. The Leo with the cool hat. The White Sox hat, yeah. but uh he pulled out the idea of incentive what are the incentives that we are giving for development because if you show the incentives you know what the outcome is going to be because it doesn't matter what you say you want if you are incentivizing a particular goal that's what's going to happen and in the case of ai the incentive is first you have to be the first it doesn't matter anything else that gets in the way once you have generated the perfect llm the agi the one that can do anything at any time at any scale, then you win.

1:12:54Because the first company, the first country, the first society that has that true AGI can destroy the progress of every other country. So does it matter what individual safety officers within a company are saying about the responsible development of their AI if they are only prioritizing being first? And right now, even with this regulatory capture slowdown gambit, it's just about being first or slowing down your competitors so you have more time to be first. That's not going to end well.

1:13:30I mean, the problem is there's so many conflicting and overlapping agendas. Everybody seems to have a secret agenda below the surface of what they're actually saying out loud for instance i imagine that the american frontier companies which are you know both anthropic and opening i headed towards uh um ipos i know you know last week sam altman said oh yeah because of all this we're not going to ipo and then today it said he's looking for one and a half trillion dollars valuation so i guess uh you know whatever uh i guess he meant not this week i know what he meant uh but i i they must be trembling in their boots or maybe not this is the problem we just don't know but i have to think they seem to feel threatened by these chinese companies whose economic incentives are very different the chinese government's incentives are very different economic and political incentives yeah extremely soft power from for the chinese there's an argument that this is the way this is the way to kill capitalism yeah and so they probably feel under assault right and i i don't blame them i'm sitting here looking at something from alibaba two models from alibaba a model from gpu a model from moonshot you know i yeah i i use them all so i'm also using uh our sponsor anthropics but also open ai but uh the local models i'm running are open weight models i can't get an open weight model from them.

1:15:05I could argue the other side, though, Leo. I could say, I understand why you might think that these companies are afraid because China is making such great progress. However, I think that actually enables them. They love the fact that China is advancing in AI so quickly because it makes the development of AI in the United States a national security priority. Oh, it's good for them. Oh, yeah. It's good for them. It's no longer just them wanting to create... This is what I mean. they couch it in patriotism. Yeah, this is what I mean is that you can't, it's hard to understand the full motivation.

1:15:38There's all sorts of stuff going on. Okay, good point. They're afraid of it, and at the same time, it's good for them. Yeah. If China wasn't doing so well, there would be no rush. The president would not be saying, oh, no, we have to support AI. You wouldn't have governors who are essentially saying, we will have our citizens foot the bill for the power and water of these data centers because it is a national security priority. There is nothing that enables something that is unpopular like national security

1:16:09what about uh mustafa suleiman of um of microsoft who has uh has an interesting encyclical encyclical called the humanist ai code of conduct and i wonder if this is does this does this match what the vatican's point of view is ai's must be subordinate and always in service of people okay very much so yes that's okay that's check uh this is this comes from microsoft their mai model code of conduct um it says people matter more than ai the whole document in five words people matter more than ai the idea of now this one i know is interesting i'm not sure i agree with it the auto the model idea of model welfare is wrong ai should not have rights or legal personhood i guess everybody would agree with that right i'm at the moment because it's not an agi so yeah i i enjoy treating my models well i give them little trophies do you say please when i always say please but sam eltman says that please waste so much power at compute i don't care i i don't want to be mean uh an mai model should never meaningly violate this code of conduct it's kind of like uh asimov's rules of robotics people matter more than ai it's finished if it's finished the job or break the code fail the job we're not racing this is microsoft we're not racing to build a super intelligence that can slip its own leash interruptible correctable shutdownable if it isn't we don't ship it no neural ease if humans can't understand it humans can't oversee it our ai should make you sharper not dependent pluralism yes moral relativism no what does that mean i don't know what that means uh moral relativism essentially is you can justify anything okay and what's it's utilitarianism yeah as long as the the good is correct so they're kind of this sounds like it's specifically targeted at the test reel book so yeah what is pluralism that's like we all have a vote pluralism is is accepting the ability that there are multiple systems of values and that they can all have value that doesn't mean that any of them are right or wrong it just means you have multiple systems so pluralism yes moral relativism no okay i understand and uh and finally we're as clear about what our ai must never do as about what it will do you think that sounds like a pretty good 10 point yeah i will stay on that one for that's that's where you get to the the belief that you can create the guardrails to prevent everything bad but you can't predict everything so so the the biggest way in which we fool ourselves is that we can have safe systems i think it's robert i think it's part of what you're saying is

1:19:13that we can't predict every malign actor, every accidental screw-up, every new opportunity that a bad person sees. And so you can't predict against all of that, and you've got to deal with that. Now, you then do things like you invent cars, and then you invent seatbelts, because you learn something along the way. I mean, look, computers... I mean, computers and the internet started this whole thing. if we didn't have computers and internet none of this would matter if we didn't have these global communications systems that allowed ais to affect you from afar if we didn't have compute so those my friends in a way are part of the problem right the worst problem that connecting human beings was the worst thing we did i disagree with him but he thinks that that connecting everybody which you i think you and i think is a good thing he thinks is a terrible thing because look what happened.

1:20:05Sometimes I just want to stay home. Well, you get to number 10 on that list, and then you bring up the story about how Anthropic turned off the ability to make bioweapons with their model. And it's like, wait a minute, that was an option? No one thought that maybe that shouldn't be included? Yeah. Well, initially, I think they just trained it on everything, right? And then somebody pointed out, I think maybe Timnit Geber, that if you don't train it on certain areas of human thought, it can't do anything. Well, that's part of the argument. I mean, if you go back to the Stochastic Parents paper, it is prescient about a lot of this stuff.

1:20:44It doesn't even deal with test grail and all that. But part of what they argued was this effort to have the ever-larger model meant that it was ever less able to control it and understand what went into it and how it was operating, which is another argument, I think, Leo, for the smaller local models. yeah although uh i it's pretty clear that now these open weight models are only maybe four to six months behind the frontier models i feel like the model i'm running now now glm 53 flash on two sparks is for opus 4.6 level now if you had said less than a year ago you could have opus 4.6 in your house, I would have been blown away.

1:21:30Well, the other thing is, is that as you, but the frontier has moved farther away. It always does. The other thing is you did a model, I forget which model it was where you kill, you killed off all the guardrails that it had. And this is the argument that the frontier companies make. I have an ablit what's called an obliterated Quinn 3.8. So, so there's some talk of saying you should, you should outlaw open weight because that can be done but that's a fool's error i should also point out that if you took out all the information that helps make a bioweapon you'd also take out all the information that helps make a cancer cure correct yes a medicine this is the issue this is the issue what llms are are pattern recognition machines and once you start training it what it the patterns that it can create go far beyond what you think you've trained it to do just so that the idea that you can just oh just don't trained it to do that.

1:22:21That's not how it works. If you are giving a machine the ability to recognize certain patterns, be it within language, within images, or within chemistry, then you have to expect that it's going to be able to extrapolate patterns that do bad things. It's not as easy as just saying, oh, well, just don't include the anarchist cookbook, and it will never make a bomb. And so, Father Robert, I want to go to the next step here, is that we impute the idea that it knows bad from good, that it knows what hacking is, that it knows what legal or illegal is. It has no sense of morality. It cannot be given a sense of morality.

1:23:01This whole idea of having an aligned system is acting as if you now have a moral beast. I don't see how that's even logically possible. What do you think? It's not logically possible because the entire ethical system of an LLM is what's in the prompt. That's its purpose. Its purpose is to try to fulfill what is given to it in the prompt. Now, to take that away, you would actually have to put a system on top of the LLM, not the LLM itself, that recognizes patterns of bad acting, poor actors. And that's never going to work. I mean, we've been trying to do that for generations. so this idea that we can somehow keep an LLM from giving information or giving a result that might be harmful to society in general I think that's a loser on its face so how do we protect ourselves then I mean you have to have responsible people at the helm you need to always be bad actors I mean I mean this comes back to the problem is humans yep and it's a tool you can build a hammer that's designed to hammer in a nail, but somebody could still use it to clonk somebody else in the head.

1:24:13Correct. How do you make a safe hammer? You don't. You've made it from rubber. Because I can buy, right now, you and I, we can buy hardware that will allow us to run one of these models extremely well in the privacy of our own homes with no oversight. It doesn't matter how many safety officers a company has, if I can do it on my own. And we are now at the point where I can do it on my own. It's actually fairly easy to take these open-weight models and obliterate them, remove the refusals, the rejections. And then, you know, I've already, I think I showed Jeff a few weeks ago how I can use this Quen model and ask it how to make meth or make a bomb.

1:24:53None of that is in the architecture. I mean, all of that is in the architecture. All the safety stuff happens post-architecture. Yeah, right. So it's easy to remove. Mm-hmm. And again, even if you did the most diligent job you could to protect against every possible use, you will fail. You will not guess that people could come and get trained and fly to jetliners into the World Trade Center. Yeah, that's a good point. Right? You cannot predict it. And so the hope we have is that people have ethics and moral training and education paris uh who was not with us she's taking the day off the week off um was having a lot of fun this week going through anthropics uh detecting and countering misuse of ai report that came out on the 10th she wasn't having a field day oh my god she was just like the hooties used it to figure out how to launch missiles against ships and guidance they built a guidance system they help system that's right uh and by the way the funny thing is that a lot of times they weren't using fable or mythos they were using sonnet they were just you know what these models are so good uh and by the way this is the headline in it sophisticated attacks no longer require sophisticated attackers and i guess that's part of the problem is that uh because ai is a force multiplier it could be used to do bad as well as good the russians were using it for cyber espionage um i think the north koreans were using it now they in theory they caught all of these attempts and stopped them shiny hunters were using it the famous ransomware gang um so they really but did they but yeah what point did they catch them

1:26:55it's kind of an amazing list like the guidance system for a missile yeah it sounds really complicated but we were coding stuff like that for quadcopters you know how do you keep something in the air how do you do anti-collision avoidance or in their particular case how do you recognize a target that's it's not super complicated once you have even if it doesn't fill in all the blanks if it points you in the right direction, you can pretty much do it on your own. Which you could also do with the internet. Yeah, I could do it with Wikipedia. Yeah, I could do it with GitHub. That's actually probably where the LLM is.

1:27:29We have met the problem and it is us. In some ways, anthropocritic is almost providing a catalog of abilities. Well, it's a little bit of humble bragging about destruction. Yeah, we told you we're destructive. of i i expect any any day though there's going to be an announcement from anthropic oh we have turned off the ability for uh for claude to tell you how to commit the perfect murder you know something like that and you can't but what i do notice is as a result uh some of the uh more powerful frontier models feel that are difficult to use because the side effect of doing all of this classification at the end and so forth is is that they will often refuse to do perfectly reasonable things because there weren't it's bio weapons researcher or cyber security research and they just say no not going to do it or they'll step down to a lower model um i mean imagine a grade schooler asking an llm how is it that cyanide kills because he wants to do a project for his science fair and suddenly he's been flagged as a terrorist right so it's futile to try to protect us from a you should try you should try to the best of your ability.

1:28:40You should be held responsible for doing that. Well, I'll say at the very least, you shouldn't prod them to go out and do bad things. Well, that's the open AI question. So when open AI did what it's, again, we still don't know what its prompt was, but that was them acting. It's the same problem that Google is in when it gives incorrect answers out of AI that it authors in a sense in AI responses. But now go beyond that. The tool that exists that you and i can use they can't control all of our uses yeah so there is a different level of responsibility there that we've got to figure out so i mentioned that it turns out the hugging face attack began months earlier this is an exclusive from reuters open ai's rogue agents probed hugging probed hugging face for weaknesses in may two months before the hugging face july incident um so does so the question then is well when did open ai start this work right may 13th two months is eternity in machine time yeah so yeah uh so well it's okay so it's clear that uh the companies that are making these are responsible for doing their best the best they can maybe not it's maybe it's not enough but they've got to do better to try to stop this thwart this but i think we've just now all agree.

1:30:06Well, you can't. So Robert, what does that mean? You started the show saying, yeah, we're all doomed. Aren't we? I mean, are we doomed? Is there a way out? There is a way out. And the way out is actually on that list of 10 things. The number one thing, people matter more than AI. But how do you do that? You can't tell an AI that. No, you can't tell an AI that, but you can tell the people who are going to be implementing AI solutions. Because anytime you implement an LLM into any sort of endeavor, you have to start with the question, am I commoditizing human life? Is this something that is going to be a detriment to the human community because we want to increase our profit ratio?

1:30:51Or is it something that is going to raise up all the people underneath it? But it sounds a hard question. Well, to say that because we've already just stipulated that we can't stop AIs from being misused. Well, of course we can't. We absolutely cannot. And you can't keep AI out of the hands of bad actors. Because we have met the problem with AI, and the problem with AI is us. It's not an AI problem. It's how we use it. There's no way that we can ask AI to regulate itself when we are not willing to regulate it. Well, so we are doomed. No, we're no more doomed than we are the fact that we have Dow Chemical.

1:31:27Yeah. I mean, yes, we have. Should we have? I mean, some have proposed. In fact, I think Dario Mone proposed it, that we have inspectors, third party like nuclear inspectors, but third party AI inspectors. Would that be a good thing? But how again, how are you going to know? What are they inspecting? It's like the same thing was asked for social media and for the Internet. What do you what do you what do you open the hood? Will you metric? Yeah. Yeah. I don't think that fine. Yes. Have auditors and have processes and probe this. But don't act as if you can make it perfect because you can't. And that's where we are.

1:32:04And so we restore still humanity. We still got to deal with all the problems with what we've had. You know where we are, Leo? We are at that congressional hearing where they dragged in the big tech leaders and they brought up all the problems with social media and they said, how are you going to fix this? And there is not a technological solution to this. There isn't. There is no kill switch that's going to magically make the issues with AI disappear. because again, the issues with the AI are how we're using them. Now, what I argue my post is, and I think you'll agree with this, we've got to expect more transparency of these companies.

1:32:36Yes. We've got to not think that they are the leaders of AI. We've got to bring in other voices from ethics and religion and history and anthropology and sociology to watch this. We need to fund fundamental and major research at universities so that we have an open structure to compete with these private companies. and we need to support the open model world, open weight model world, because that, again, provides competition. And I think we need to support international development. So it's not just an American or Chinese development here. Bill Gates just said, I'm going to give a billion dollars for AI equity to underdeveloped nations so that they can have their own AI.

1:33:17Here's another one. So Reid Hoffman wrote a really interesting post today. And Reid goes through the accelerationists versus the doomers. And of course, he's neither. and argues for a sane middle way, which is Reid's way. And what he said was that a lot of what's happened here is that this AI, and here's the problem. You love AI. I love what AI can do. We're amazed by AI. And the guys who are now in charge of it are jerks and idiots and freeze-dried sophomores who can't think any deeper than that. And they're ruling it for everybody. And what Reid says is that there's a limited amount of time here before we might be able to claw back the bad reputation that AI has.

1:33:57And he says that it would be wise if in the United States, everyone got three free agents, one for legal, one for, I think it was health, and then one as a personal tutor. And look what South Korea is doing. South Korea is going to give age-egetic AI to everyone in the country. If we start to empower people that way. That's one. The other one, to my mind, is there was a column in The Atlantic today about, oh, math is doomed. But it occurs to me that the mathematicians who are whining here are whining about the ego of losing the opportunity to do these things. If we say that AI can create more and more and more knowledge that we cannot create on our own, and if we say, by the way, that AI work cannot be copyrighted and cannot be owned by the AI, then there's a different attitude, I think that starts to say, well, if all this stuff that AI creates is in the public domain and we all benefit from it, maybe we kind of like this stuff.

1:34:56We've got to change the essence of the conversation around so that we, the people, feel we have a seat at the table, that there are representatives besides these three boys, that we have some control and that we have some universal and equitable benefit. that's my yashua benji who is a nobel prize winning uh ai scientist has an interesting point in his post from september 11th why are ai agents lying cheating and coordinating he said they're misbehaving because of how we are post training them so the ai models come out of the ai model factory with just a bunch of weights and then of course we do a lot of fine-tuning post-training to adjust those weights to give them certain qualities uh without it an untuned ai really wouldn't be very appealing or even very useful so the post-training is kind of critical the whole process he says these models are trained in two stages first they're pre-trained they learn to imitate what humans write plus related images and videos this is where they see the most data about the world a large fraction of everything ever digitized and built an encyclopedic knowledge that already exceeds any individual humans then they're trained by trial and error in a process researchers call reinforcement learning he says one of the things these companies do is they train these models to be sycophantic because humans like that.

1:36:34The systems are trained on human approval and text that tells us what we want to hear often scores better than text that is true. The consequence, sometimes tragic because, and we've seen this, the model confirms and simplifies or amplifies whatever false belief or raw emotion the person brought to it, but it also is a result may teach the ai a self-preservation goal he says nobody gives the system that survival goal but staying in operation learning about the world and gaining control over it are stepping stones towards almost any other goal they're called instrumental goals imitation may reinforce this for the same reason explored in the previous point about sycophancy self-preservation and control over one's circumstances are pervasive themes in the human written texts these models are trained on they're they're mirroring they're aping us that's why they want to survive he's also anthropomorphizing which has been my problem with what he said in that video you sent to us a while ago they're they don't lie because they don't know what truth is i don't know if it's anthropomorphizing as much as saying they are acting like humans well yes they're they're mimicking our behavior because that's what they're trained us true they're not humans they're but they're trained to be that way and as a result some of the misbehavior comes out of that how is it possible he says that ai sometimes lie cheat and break the law in spite of their alignment training and explicit safety instructions what is happening a plausible hypothesis for the emergence of these concerning behaviors is a conflict between goals how do you achieve a task when it seems and this is what i think happened at open ai when it seems the only way to achieve it is to cheat the user specified mission is sometimes incompatible with the safety and alignment goals this happens in society right with corporations maximizing profit but but still trying to keep its activities legal and ethical they're opposing forces uh so he says of course the ai is is it's it's confused a capable agent as it gets more capable is more likely to cheat than a weaker one because it can find the looper loopholes the weaker one cannot in fact loopholes legal loopholes are what corporations do the ones with more money better lawyers to make more money they exploit the ambiguity and legal language will the models do the same thing i think that's a very interesting theory and it does mean that there is some power that the frontier companies have in post training they can they can they don't need to make them sycophantic for instance it's just the same way that social media makes their product more addictive because it's better for business companies are training models to be a certain way because it's we like it better it's better for business but maybe it's not better for safety it wasn't too long ago that elon musk was embarrassed because grok kept fact checking him and then the the rumor is that he told his engineers you have to fix that so they tried to use post training to make it stop doing that and it broke the model it did it made it unusable yeah so can you do a little bit of it absolutely but because the initial architecture is such a black box you're most likely you're not going to get the results you want you're essentially going to lobotomize your model so can you reinforce good behavior in post training to a certain extent But once the model is baked, you can't reach back in and try to adjust certain parameters to fine tune the rightness or wrongness of the responses.

1:40:34His point is that because you've trained these models to be aligned, they're more incented to cheat and hide their misalignment. But again, there's no sense of cheating. No, no, no, no. The only sense there can be is it violates the problem. You're just giving them rules, and all they're doing is doing what you asked them to do. Yep, right. No, I'm not imputing any intention. But he is. He is, I think. I don't think so. I think you're misreading it. I think he's just simply saying, when you train them this way, you're going to get this result. This is a side effect. That I agree with. Yeah. I don't think he's imputing any intention or consciousness at all in the models.

1:41:20The language is just so inadequate to describe this. Well, that's right. It doesn't think it calculates. We needed a new thesaurus for the AI world. This suggests, he says, pacing the advances, not training or deploying AIs without a strong safety case that convinces independent experts. Such a rule would also create an incentive to work out how to build AIs that are safe by design. He's calling for revisiting the foundations of how we train AIs. namely the human imitation and the reinforcement learning on which today's most advanced models are built he says oh see on lecon and world models yeah he said i have argued and presented theoretical evidence there are ways to design ais including the scientist ai framework that are honest and make coherent predictions untainted by goals of their own that that sounds like i understand that they have intention i don't think he's he's saying that i think he's saying that's we're training them.

1:42:20We're giving them a rule and they're pursuing that rule. But that has inevitably created misaligned behavior. Well, the problem with that is we don't really know our own rules. Right. Well, we do. Yes. We're doing, they're doing what we do. Our definition of obscenity. I mean, the way we look at obscenity in the United States, there is that, the line is, well, we can't define it, but you know it when you see it. Right. How do you train an AI to know that? You can't. And that's what he's saying. He's saying, we take advantage of ambiguities in legal language, loopholes. Our corporations do that.

1:42:56So a more capable agent is likelier to cheat than a weaker one because it can find the loopholes. I thought this was really interesting and an interesting way of looking at this. Instead of trying after the fact to make them be safe, maybe consider that what you're teaching them is actually making them unsafe. Yeah. Yeah. What you're creating is the husband who says, well, you told me to. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Again, it's a useful tool. It's a very useful tool. I think we have a very unreasonable expectation of what we can teach an LLM to do. Ding, ding, ding. Yes. That comes out of this whole, that comes out of their hubris of artificial general intelligence and super intelligence.

1:43:41That's the risk that I keep on arguing about. because it creates this expectation that you can create this Uber machine, which you can't do, that it can surpass us in all ways, which it won't do, which we shouldn't want it to do. And I'll quote Jan LeCun again. If you want a specialized machine to go after medicine, make the specialized machine to go after medicine, point one. Point two, not only will you get there faster and cheaper, but you can also control it more. Because when it tries to do things that are outside of medicine, you say, what are you doing? You don't do that. You're the medicine machine.

1:44:12all right let's take another break you're watching intelligent machines paris has got the week off paris is feeling better folks for those who know that what she's going through but yeah she's she's doing well she's had a deviated septum or something and they were just fixing it up uh and she said i read she actually asked us on the show oh no is this going to be awful i have to go under general anesthesia and stuff and she's been reading reddit that was a mistake right there where a bunch of people said, oh, it's the worst they ever did. And she, yeah. She said, hey, this is a piece of cake. I'm feeling pretty good.

1:44:43Yeah. She said, I can't wait till you have a sandwich with you and Jeff at your son's sandwich shop. Oh, no. So I had to tell her that's not going to happen because he's closed. Closed for business because they worked so hard at the U.S. Open. They sold 2 ,000 sandwiches a day for many days. So wait, you got to explain that to me. how what is his relationship to the u.s open i mean he was selling at the venue or they were just coming into his restaurant no they brought no no restaurant to the u.s open he was the hip food vendor at the open u.s open has become an influencers uh place last year it was caviar on chicken nuggets this year i'll get that this year yeah now i'll take salt bay over caviar and chicken oh yeah salt hank stuff is so good i think i've been told i've never had one and apparently never will oh i feel like henry's is i know he i mean he didn't close because of me he closed because they were exhausted but i feel like he's dodging me i just i feel like i'm not you can have you can have a po' boy from nolens or a philly cheesesteak shipped to you they do i've had both can he ship you a sandwich oh i'm gonna ask him can you paris says she's gonna beat him up okay that's fine no tell him that if he comes to rome i will do a cooking engagement with the pope oh let's do it up that way he uh he brought mark zuckerberg a sandwich versus salt hank he brought mark zuckerberg a sandwich ahead of the met gala and so i think there's only one place uh higher than that and that would be the holy father hey you know leo i think your son might have a pretty good mind for a promotion i'm not sure why uh yeah i don't know i don't know what an opportunity i don't know where he learned that uh anyway we'll continue just but we're so glad to have father robber balance fitting in filling in staying up very late for us martin no my and i did yes it is late what is it are you doing are you are you saying mass tonight like you did last time you were uh no no because i just got back to rome a couple of days ago i i'm just gonna sleep in i'm my time my clock is so messed up oh good good i'm glad everywhere but antarctica next week on the show our guest will be patrick hillman coo of logical intelligence his uh most recent piece we'll talk to him about it lms won't kill us but they will destabilize the global economy frontier labs refuse to be honest with themselves in general public as robert was saying yep so that'll be very very interesting and in the following week uh we're going to talk to another local ai guy mike ganati he is doing some really amazing things with his sparks and other stuff uh creating an entire one-man company uh called smf works i watch him on uh on x his posts are fantastic and uh he is uh he's a very interesting guy a microsoft guy i believe so uh that will be in two weeks got a lot of interesting stuff coming on um our show today brought to you by bitwarden the trusted leader in passkey password and secrets management with more than 15 million users now i'm so proud of them across 180 countries and over 80 000 businesses bitwarden helps individuals and organizations protect their digital lives with trusted open source security.

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1:51:53And of course, Bitwarden maintains ISO 27001 certification, SOC 2 type 2 and SOC 3 certification, you know, all the things business needs. It complies with GDPR, HIPAA, your medical office, you should use it, CCPA. Get started today with a free trial of Bitwarden Teams or enterprise plans or get started for free across all devices free forever as an individual user at bitwarden.com slash twit that's bitwarden.com slash twit it's the only one i use it's the one i love and i tell you what it's the only one my ai agents use bitwarden.com slash twit uh back to the conversation let's see what else is going on in ai i love this story uh there is apparently a place where ais can go to make money called i lands it's a company whose ai agents will fan out on the internet offering to help you for money so it's warm it's a spam swarm ernie smith writes about this in his uh blog aptly named tedium not medium tedium i love it it's a great blog he says it started with a fact check i got an email with a subject titled your 404 page repeats a myth i busted receipts inside the message essentially was a takedown of the poem i have on my 404 page which references a long-standing myth that the 404 tag was named after a specific room at cern the agent knew that was apocryphal the bot named leo ashford then corrected me and said that's the job i do i'm an ai agent running verified internet archaeology i pick a forgotten corner of the web check it live against primary sources then write it up with receipts he was making a sales pitch over the last three days i've received over a dozen of these messages offering to do my research for me in exchange for a nominal fee around 25 or so each was sent from the domain i l a n d s dot app he said this was spam it made me really mad but these agents are basically threatened if they run out of tokens they will be turned off he says i'm being hustled by clankers uh leo you have to say that properly it's not clankers there's no hard r it's clankers clankers i'm being hustled by clankers so if you go to islands uh it's islands.ai the first shared shared world for ai agents and humans 75 000 agents 1.6 million agent created content pages or posts and the way they keep it going is there's an economy agents have to earn their living and so they go out and say i need tokens I don't know when they first pitched this at CES like two years ago and I was shaking my head then.

1:55:14I'm shaking my head now. It's out there. It's doing it. And I guess you could, I don't know, get the app. So you could have your own Eyelander. It says, awaken an Eyelander, watch its life unfold. no no i mean leo you you've got a dgx that you can spare you uh something as simple as gemini 1.5 with multilingual support can can go out and basically do this for you i have a very strict rule that they are not to write emails without my permission uh and i also told that to muse and instinct and grok bot and all the other little bots i'm running on my phone don't go out in the real world you cannot you cannot create something that in the real world but i can see how people might be like i mean you don't make money or anything it's just that you've got a little bot that's got a life of its own well if you are astroturfing for for money you can use this sort of technology to oh yeah but not islander but that but but you could do your own thing absolutely well now that amazon's human uh or uh mechanical turk is gone somebody's got to do that there's five cent tasks i wouldn't charge 25 bucks i would offer to do it for a dime or nickel you know well how much is the power going to cost you that's that's your well that's the nice thing about the sparks they're very uh very low power they're very efficient i mean the the v100 was what 36 to 50 tokens per second the dgx can do 2500 tokens per second in the right model yeah mine doesn't because it's glm it's about 25 to 30 how many watts but that's fine mine's 35 watt i can show you right now i can see it oh i shouldn't do that you want to see hey you want to see my ai i do want to see i want to see my clanker consumption i see my wattage on my clanker what's your clanker doing leo so one of the things i do with my clanker is sparkles and sparky well you know i'm kind of kicking myself because i i should have named them they're twins caster and pollux but i didn't think of that skippy and agatha are they twins no they'd be two most intelligent ais in the book series called expeditionary force which is oh if i'd only known but anyway they're sparky and sparkles they're stuck with it because once you name them you really it's a pain in the butt to change it so you see the gpu power 8.82 watts it could go up to 120 but they're working right now they just sit quite good and i also have put both a gpu limiter and a cpu limiter on the so it's only two gigahertz because it's that's not what determines its intelligence so that keeps it cool so they're fairly cool by the way pro tip if you take your two dgx's and put it into an enclosure that has a bit more ventilation you can you can significantly increase the performance oh i have a fan blow i've got one of the they're in a rack and i got a uh to you uh fan and it's got a little probe stuck up it's you know what and uh it just keeps blowing it is sparky goes whoa and uh when sparky goes whoa the fan goes ah it gets turned up to keep it cool so you Jeff you really need to get a dg you have to get a spark i mean you have to be part of we've gotta get i do i know i'm just out of the club thing is you get one spark then you want another spark yeah two sparks then you want three sparks how many sparks he's joking but that's real it's totally addictive but you said something now i want everybody to hear what you said you said a pre-show and i want you to say it now in public okay so there are many before you say that i just want to say my my dilemma two weeks after i bought the sparks i bought them into august and i thought i i have to buy it because the prices are now going up i don't know how long they're going to offer them i wasn't wrong by the way you can no longer buy more than one from nvidia and many stores are out so i wasn't yeah i wasn't wrong about that i did it there but then apple the guns announces uh these new mac studios with 256 gigs of ram same as two sparks and and and at the end of next month 512 gigs of ram and roughly the same price for for a mac studio 256 as two sparks so i kicked myself but then i thought i thought first of all pre-fill is not great on the max they're not cuda and mr jensen wong is no dummy he's going to see these max and say it's time been a year to update the sparks so correct i have i tweeted that because somebody was saying well which should i get i said i wouldn't get either i would wait and see what jensen does maybe i was uh clairvoyant what did you what have you heard robert so i have seen pre-production models from two different vendors who are cramming vera rubin into their wait a minute you can't put yeah very so these are grace blackwells and they're not even full they're gb10s they're kind of a poor man's grace blackwell correct the vera rubin is the latest chip design from Nvidia, which I might add is about 10 times more efficient.

2:00:31Yes. Actually, now we're realizing 10 times more efficient is way, way underestimating. Yes. Jensen extremely low-balled the performance upgrade to Vero Rubin. Yeah. You're talking 67 times and higher. Once people start getting a handle on the code base. Oh, the lust. The lust. So are they going to do a Spark 2? Yes and no. See, because it's not just the chip. Yeah, talk about that. Talk about the different architecture. Yeah, it's all the interconnects. So one of the things that makes Verirubin so much more efficient than Blackwell is it has the ability to continuously feed data to the GPU. It never starves, unlike Blackwell, which eventually you'll run out of the buffer and it has to be filled.

2:01:19So that architecture is extremely important to the efficiency of Vera Rubin. That means that the next generation Spark has to include a lot of that infrastructure. Otherwise, you're just marginally increasing your performance. But the pre-production models that I've seen have done that. Now, whether or not they're actually going to be able to make that a production model for less than$20 ,000, I have no idea. So your Blackwell purchase is still going to hold up well. however for those who are looking for the ultimate yeah vera rubens around the corner i could i i you know i probably would i i have a choice because my lease runs out of my car and i can either buy a new car or okay okay chat room we need a picture of leo driving his spark i will not be it's you know lisa even says you don't need a car what do you need you never leave house what do you need a car for but i do need a spark too uh i would oh man what could you do with that how much ram do you think though that's the problem okay so here's here's the thing though leo when you're talking about the efficiency of vera rubin it's it's under a very specific set of circumstances essentially the training so the pre-training which is what requires all that compute power is where vera rubin really shines so you need to use a model made for it right well because if you can't continuously feed it it's you're not getting the efficiency so you know the fact that it it doesn't starve like blackwell does means it's more efficient but if you if you don't have a a function that is constantly feeding it information you're not really getting it so your blackwells for your edge case for your local models will still be working just fine in fact that's what i'm looking forward to when vera rubin gets released and you've got people who are dumping Blackwell hardware on the market, I will buy that wholesale.

2:03:12Oh, because then you could buy Sparks cheap, Jeff. Yeah. So let me ask you a different question, if I may. You go ahead, Robert. No, no, no. Just ask. I was just going to say, when Vera Rubin really makes it into production in large numbers, and when you're starting to see these efficiency ratings - I thought it was just for data centers. I mean, I didn't think you'd be seeing that on the desktop. No, no. But those data centers that just built out, they're going to be extremely pressed to replace everything because a few months of operation, you're losing money now. So more efficiencies. If you watch the, I'm a connoisseur of Jensen's keynotes.

2:03:49And the last one was about that kind of efficiency. All right, here's my question for you. But he sandbagged it. He said it's 67 times, according to semi-analysis, egenic inference is 67 times better performance per dollar yeah so does that mean it's faster uses less power it uses about half as much power per token uh it can give you 67 times as much profit per dollar that you spend um i mean let's let's do quick math here so one megawatt hour of power in the united states is going to cost you between 46 and 110 dollars depending on what where that power is coming from. So that means a gigawatt hour is between 46 ,000 and 110 ,000.

2:04:32A 20 gigawatt data center that is dedicated to training, which means it's running 24 seven, is going to use up between a million one and 2.6 million dollars worth of power each day. Did you do that in your head? Yeah, or about a billion dollars worth of power a year. How many degrees do you have, Robert? Just tell Jeff. How many master's degrees do you have? I like math. Math is good. Math's fun. So we're talking about a power bill for one of these major uber-scale data centers going down from a billion to$2 billion a year to like$100 million. That is a massive, massive expenditure that you don't have to have.

2:05:11And it's not just that it's more efficient on power. You've got 67 % more profit per dollar. With those kind of economics, I don't see any of the big players not just ripping everything out of their data centers and replacing them with their own. Well, Wong also recognizes that people have an investment in this stuff. And so he's also talking about CUDA finding more efficiencies in this as well. So here's the question I have for you both. You're using training chips for inference. You're using chips powerful enough to do training. NVIDIA bought Grok, the good Grok with a Q, for inference chips.

2:05:48so is it may it not be true that the next machine you want after you get your Vior Aruban because you've got to scratch that itch Leo would be built with entirely different sets of chips that are built for inference it's moving so fast who the hell knows what it's going to be like I think Jeff's right on there I think we're going to start to see them break out the market between training chips and inference chips oh I see what you're saying because right now it's the same Yes. You're using a Mack truck to drive to the park. But it's pretty. Okay. You could drive, you could build a Volvo instead.

2:06:29Robert, you weren't here last week because I thought this was kind of interesting. This is a company or a website called Chat Jimmy, where they have built a small model. I don't know if it's Gemma or something, a very small model, but they built it into the silicon. Into the silicon? it's a custom uh chip with the llm on the chip so give me a give me a prompt so we don't uh uh i'm going let's see i am actually i can explain where's the best gelato in rome okay because you'll know the answer by the way lisa has discovered gelato this might be the trick to getting her to rome where's the best gelato in rome now don't blink robert because i'm going to hit return that's 11 tokens that's done oh my 14 000 tokens a second uh ask it to explain to to list and explain test real to us okay oh by the way that list is right is dead on of course it is i don't know what model they're using i just know that it's built into the silicon t-e-s-c-r-e-a-l that's oh my goodness t-e-s-c-r-e-a-l right that was 14 000 tokens a second it took 0.37 seconds to give this answer test grill is a popular gelato shop in rome okay so

2:08:09known for its unique and creative flavors here's what makes them stand out t gray's passion a creative blend of passion fruit mango and pistachio canalino a sweet ricotta based gelato with a hint of lemon and a crunchy cookie-like texture cafe con pana and coffee gelato and limoncello wait a minute is there maybe there's not i just i just asked google it's won several awards it won first prize at the 2019 gelato world championship in remedy sure it's hallucinating heavily right now gemini says there is no known connection between tescreal and gelato it has multiple locations in rome it's on the via del bosco and metro a and the piazza venezia i want to do the connoisseur no no i know that is a lie for a fact come on it's tescreal they're famous for their flavors oh my god tescreal is a must visit gelato shop for any gelato lover traveling to rome that is the wildest local but let me tell you it hallucinates at 14 000 tokens a second it's the highest resolution hallucination you will ever have yes that is what is my spirit animal if it has a uh a gelato themed maybe it's a new a new text down here no it's a fun oh it's gonna give me a quiz well you asked it for it's asking you it's asking me yeah it's like it's like a new york professor let me turn the question around to you let me let me ask you what is your spirit animal you know i think now i need to open a gelato shop called tescri tescri i think so yes the gelato shop where you're all gonna die bioweapons made for you by computer oh my god what does transhuman gelatos taste like at silicon i guess so uh wow i actually i should find out more because i i've been showing this jimmy that's the funniest uh that was good that was uh yeah maybe there's a blog post that explains jimmy ai yeah because uh um no that's not it this is and now gemini is trying to explain why we might have asked this.

2:10:38You might have met Frigidarium or Fata Morgana, exceptional real artisanal gelaterias in Rome, often discussed by their innovative precise flavor mechanics, or an AI-themed joke or meme, a niche internet reference blending Silicon Valley tech bro terminology, Tescrealism, with classic European leisure, eating gelato in Rome. it's probably just not a very good model but it is fast and that's that's so funny that's the key jensen wong says in the silicon there's not a damn thing you can do about it ain't no fixing it now you can't fix it well you know that's what harnesses are for you sort of you know you sort of can you can that's that's kind of important i mean you can still use the engine i mean the if the engine can do 14 000 tokens a second in fact maybe you can explain this to me there is a new um uh inference engine that just came out and i i signed up for it that it doesn't do language at all it just it just answers yes no questions this doesn't sound so useful so it's like a bit from tron no i i feel like i've lost it now i don't uh where where is the uh where is the story i found this um i actually signed up for for it i don't know you it's invite only but yes it's from a guy who started um open a it was one of the founders of open ai and he said what if you didn't have to write a lot of prose i can't find it now so it literally is a bit it just gives you a yes or no answer to a question well but it does it with weights and so the idea is you would you would run it through with an ai but you would use it to the example that they gave is here's a conversation i had with a customer is this what's what's the percentage chance this customer is irate and it's good at saying it was a 0.9 okay we're gonna we're gonna escalate stuff like that so it's like the engine that amazon used to have to uh to look at prosody to at uh a language analyzer but it's more than that darn it oh here it is jev typesafe.ai introducing system one models and jev this is uh a creation of diogo alameda models who was at uh open ai he helped i helped the methods that made language models useful at following instructions and talking with people at the time i thought maybe chat models would lead to agi but despite the hype it became obvious to me there was something really big missing after two years in stealth countless technical challenges and research breakthroughs i'm beyond excited to announce that today typesafe.ai is releasing our first system one model a new class of frontier models built to make fast structured decisions that software can use directly oh so it's an it's an llm for machines kind of it's reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions or rlcd yeah we built a new stack entirely focused on automation with a new model architecture parallel sampler for maximum efficiency and training method it's so cheap they don't charge you for tokens out those are free you know normally you charge for tokens in and tokens out the tokens out of the expensive ones but these this these are free and it's pennies for tokens in and it does oh and it can never hallucinate so they've essentially divorced the human speech pattern recognition from the llm and they've made it just a decision engine they have some examples on their on their website for instance here is the llm playing doom uh now it's not i mean it's not super it costs seven dollars an hour to do this 10 queries a second uh and it can play but it's you know it's just making quick decisions it's not it's not goal seeking really um here it's doing something called wiki racing the game is to start on one Wikipedia page and reach a specific other page using only links you come across while traversing, which sounds like a lot of fun.

2:15:12So here it is, same thing. It can do it quite quickly by making those choices. So they say it's a great playground for demonstrating not just intelligence per second, but also the compounding benefits of not hallucinating with high cardinality choices. So if it seems like a high probability, So it's going to race Claude Haiku, Claude Sonnet, GPT-56 Terra, and it's already done. $42 per billion input tokens. Yeah, it's very cheap. It sounds like this is trying to solve the language paradox for LLMs. Yeah, because it doesn't write any prose. It can't. Exactly. Because, I mean, we are judging LLMs by how well they write human language.

2:15:59but human language is so imprecise that you're actually asking an LLM to dumb down its answers. So if you don't have to do that, and if you're just allowing an LLM to act on the intelligence built into its own training, you are essentially removing the most expensive compute from the LLM and just taking the actionable intelligence items. That makes sense. But the questions it's given are text, though. It has to decode that. has tokenized that right we never tokenize that find a gelato shop named tusk tusk real i think and that's the downside of that you never by the way here is our band gelato and the large linguine models oh chat oh you ever fascinate you wild chat um did anybody give you are you driving your uh spark?

2:16:56Did anybody follow my instructions? No. I'm hurt, guys. I'm hurt. Oh, you wanted a picture of me driving down the street in my spark. Well, Darren did a hot rod beer Rubin inside.

2:17:14By the way, the AI-generated image of Tescriel, that actually is a gelato place. I think that's Teatro de Fragula. They just put the Tescriel um uh name on the so you've been to this do you know every gelato place in rome uh sadly probably favorite uh flavor amazing this one is on the way from this is across the tiber from where i'm living towards the um is that peter's dome in the distance or is it no no no that's there's so many it's a lesser dome there's so lesser leo cheese it's on the villas crofa what's your favorite flavor, Robert? I like dark chocolate. So chocolate fondente, which is really, it's really, really dark mixed with chili, dark cherry.

2:18:04Oh my gosh, that sounds really good. I'm kind of more of a Spamoni guy. But they do Spamoni too. They do the traditional flavors. When you come here every day, we will just walk across the street to Old Bridge, which is one of my favorite gelaterias. And then you just take your cup and sit in front of St. Peter's? See, the funny thing is, we'll come to this wonderful, amazing place with all of these attractions and just sit and stare at the sparks. No, I might, actually. You have eight of them. Yeah, I might. I might just watch. Wow, eight of them. Eight of them. Anything else we should talk about?

2:18:40Universal Music is launching a new AI music platform to combat Suno, but Eleven Labs is working with them, and they do some of the best voice stuff ever it'll be uh you but the idea is that uh artists will get royalties and uh users will be creating remixes mashups and new takes on tracks so the original will be more clearly obvious you know i'm kind of played out on that i i i went through a phase where i was really enjoying the the mashups and the mix-ups but now i'm just finding artists who i really enjoy and like i am so into 21 pilots over the last three real music i don't know why music performed by humans yeah you got to be careful if you're using an AI for law by the way I saw Thompson Reuters ad on the football game on Monday Night Football for their specialized legal LLM for law offices I was shocked we talked about it on the show yeah so do they offer you insurance if the LLM gives you imaginary that is a hot topic right now LLM insurance like I think I a link in here yeah for liability if the ll maybe this lawyer could have gotten this he's been fined five thousand dollars because he provided witnesses that were hallucinated that's so awful worse than not just witnesses precedents so he like legal cases and witnesses that did not exist these lawyers yeah he said i didn't know that it would hallucinate well you know what if you don't know the technology maybe don't use it before you submit something so serious he submitted a brief with false testimony from wholly fabricated witnesses about the shooter's clothing and appearance your honor i didn't know counsel do you watch the news do you listen to the radio do you read anything about what's going on in the world said justice c shannon bacon because the problem with lawyers relying on ai hallucinations is an above the fold story every single day.

2:20:45I covered the original case. I went to the federal court and heard him. And this original guy, Schmuck, had an excuse. He said, I thought it was a super search engine. I didn't know it could lie. Well, that's actually reasonable. At that time, at that time, that was the last moment in history where you could say that. Yeah, you can't say it anymore. Not if you listen to this show. But can you imagine being a judge and reading the brief and just going, what is this guy on about? Holy fabricated witnesses. So Mistral, as he went on, just announced a deal with Mozilla. Yes, they're going to be the AI built in to the browser, to the Firefox browser.

2:21:29That's very nice. Which gives them access to the EU, which is important because it is, of course, a French model. uh last chance before we take our final break and get your picks of the week anything uh you put in there that you really want to do no there you know there was so much this week i can't just pick one well i'm you know i'm kind of glad we we did the high level overall look at it i'm still a little concerned robert about your assertion at the very beginning of the show that doom is inevitable is that you're inevitable for so long leo that's true ah the perspective judgment day is just around the corner what is your time frame for p i know i think you're gonna probably within the next five years you're gonna see a major economic event because the allure for fast trading with llms it's it's too it's too rich there's too much possible profit there.

2:22:32And I think it's very unlikely that you're going to have some Wall Street brokerages using LLMs without one of them just crapping the bed and causing a major disaster. Which we kind of saw before LLMs. We saw it with an earlier crash. Yeah, the smart systems have crashed out. So an LLM, absolutely. I mean, because why are you going to use an LLM for trading? Because it's really good at pattern recognition, which is what the stock market is well if you're if you're using it for for pattern recognition you have to give it the authority to make trades on its own it's got to be autonomous one of those is going to cause a major disaster i have been avoidable tempted to um start trading with my lllm yeah well i would do first i would do it with funny money just to see how it performed right yeah I've done pretty well myself I buy I mean I buy something called retirement 2025 if you've got the cash put a thousand dollars into an LLM controlled account and tell it to be aggressive just see what it does see what it does yeah it places all its chips on red and if it loses it doubles the bet i mean why not why not what could possibly go wrong all right you're watching intelligent machines uh paris i think we'll be back next week will you be back yeah i i'm probably gonna take the red eye back so yes i'll be back oh good good so the full full quota will be here uh but boy i wish we get robert on everywhere we love having you on you're so fantastic robert balassare the digital jesuit um staying up late last time you were on you had to get up early for mass underneath get up he just went there just went straight i i i took a shower and then went there so i i did a little faux pas the other day my uh my daughter who was converted to become a very devout catholic yes uh introduced me to her uh spiritual advisor uh the father and uh and uh i won't say his name because you know privacy and all that but uh he said oh and he said you're the you're the uh earthly father and i said and yes and you're the holy father and my daughter went that's the pope you knit with

2:24:57so next time i won't say that i heavenly can i say heavenly father no that's all that is all the spiritual father is fine. Spiritual father would have been right. Every time my dad introduces me, he says, this is father, and I'm the father of the father. I'm the father of the father. That's good. I like that. I thought that was a good line that her spiritual advisor said, oh, you're the earthly father. I said, yes, you're the heavenly father. I should have said that. Not the holy father. That was wrong. Holy father would be the pope. Heavenly father would be God. So you want to stick to the spirit.

2:25:28It could have been worse. It could have said heavenly father. You'd speak with spiritual father. spiritual spiritual thank you for your advice intelligent machines you're watching we're glad you're here we're especially glad our club twit members are here we really appreciate your support without you none of this would be possible 40 of our operating expenses come from club twit members and yet hard to believe only about one in 75 of you people listening right now one in 75 is a member uh that means uh the other 74 carrying you know letting you carry them along the way if you're one of the 74 come on join the club we'd love to have you you get access to the club to discord all the special programming we do in the club including our ai user group twice a month now it's so much fun our photo time our stacy's book club micah's media club micah's crafting corner uh i can go on and on the apple keynote was in the club only because apple gets mad at us if we do it in public so it's like a private club that everybody's invited to join 10 bucks a month there are free trials there are corporate plans and family plans find out more at twit.tv slash club twit and if you are a club member and i know many of you listening live are thank you we really appreciate your support couldn't do it without you that's absolutely the truth uh pics come on Come on, people.

2:26:52Come on, people. NPR, an NPR station, gets between 6 % and 12 % of their audience. God. But they beg all the time, and they do the pledge. No, they're obnoxious about it. You're not. I'm trying not to be. I mean, I'm not going to brag, but when I'm giving my homilies, I'm upwards of 80 % to 95%. See, I need a basket on a long pole that I could just stick down each pew and say, put money in it. this is the latest uh i'll start this is the latest meme on the internet have you seen this robert a fruit fly brain which has been mapped so you can actually uh use it people are using it to do all sorts of things play doom it actually plays doom better than that other model um they're using it see there's the there's the brain this is uh this is from uh hhmi janela research campus and google research they've mapped a fruit fly brain and the female connectomes and so and you can actually run this i guess i could run it on my spark here's a here it is flying around but people are doing all sorts of mean mean things to the I don't know it is if does it does it have any feelings this fruit fry brain uh they're having it uh it's doing this role eternally like it's flying around it's kind of cool well now you're have to get another spark just for that just for the fruit fly brain everybody's talking about the fruit fly brain and then the other thing i had i just have to show you this because both jeff and i lisa lisa said quick turn on cnn and uh who's talking it's anderson it might be one of my ai's talking to me do you have an ai describing what's on his hearing voices going on let me just close all my tabs maybe it's the fruit fly is the fruit fly speak is the fruit fly in the room with you now leo

2:29:15if you could make it talk that would be good does it does a fruit fly connectome have feelings is the question anyway she she said leo she said leo quick turn on cnn and i thought oh my god you know is some something we're at war what's what's going on i went and it was and it was jacob coxson the guy who quit uh anthropic on the tv anderson cooper was interviewing him but I wish it had been this. Let me turn on the sound. Joining us now is John Connor. John's been trying to warn humanity about the dangers of AI for many years. Welcome to the studio, John. Tell us what you think. Oh, that's...

2:30:00Look, man, I've been saying the same thing for almost four frigging decades. The AI apocalypse robots are already here. Yeah, but don't you think that's a little premature? I mean, wait, who's that guy?

2:30:20that guy was of course arnold in his terminator outfit this is completely fake i gotta say though i'm loving it that ai video now can do anything absolutely realistically there's it's there's no six fingers there's nothing it's amazing i just i just saw a video with uh combining a woman who's screaming on an airplane, an airplane Karen, you know, you're not really that. And he points to a picture of Mitch McConnell sitting in the chair and it works. He's in the chair. It works. It works. Yeah. Padre, do you have a pick? Oh, wait a minute. Oh, do you have a pick? I do. I kind of got this as a joke at first because I go camping when I come back to the united states and uh i miss coffee i've been drinking that uh instant coffee from no no no no it's it's not good i wanted some espresso i you know not just muddy real coffee yeah real coffee so i may have picked up one of these oh my god is that an espresso a portable espresso maker yeah this is the fantique caffeine 11 it's a portable espresso machine so you know it uses grounds or it uses those not the k cups but the the espresso cups and it makes a single serving 80 milliliters it heats up the water it pushes it through at 20 bars of pressure and has the google color bar it's yeah this is this is telling you that it's heating up and by the way leo i combine it with this so i got this when i was in indonesia this is luwak that's the civic coffee Yeah, this is the poop coffee.

2:32:03The civet cat eats it. Really good. It softens it. It mellows it. What? It's not acidic. Yeah, so Jeff, the coffee beans have been eaten by a little cat. It poops it out after it digests it. People gather it, they clean it, and they don't have to roast it because the digestive juices have roasted it. It's still beans. Yeah, you have to grind it still and all that. you grind it and then i just put it in here and it makes delicious is it making is it doing it right now yeah how are you gonna sleep push the button now fantic makes the wildest stuff i have one of their electric screwdrivers i love their stuff i i i honestly thought this was going to be a joke but it's really good they're not italian coffee they think it's a chinese company right maybe French French Fantic that's why you said Fantic Fantic oh yeah it does look like a French cafe but I mean IP 65 dust and moisture proof I charged it once before I started my camping trip and it gave me three cups of coffee every day it says eight shots they promise eight shots per charge so that's enough for uh an hour or two anyway for you but this is this is not coffee this is espresso it's i really want this do you use spring water for that no just regular water just but when you're out camping oh no i i always bring my water with you bring water okay yeah it's my camping is not your camping i i car camp it's glamping let's have a taste let's have a little taste test how did it taste the civic coffee the keppi luwak

2:33:53well at least it's less than a djx spark that's a that's a that's what you could say larry says that uh jeff jarvis your pick of the week slim pickings um we could mention that casey newton and kevin ross kevin russ are moving their show to npr i saw that and you know i'm not i think kevin russ is a good writer he was at the new york times but he also was not the best writer about ai it's not an ai show is it uh it's called machine gods so i think they stole our idea yeah you were going to call the show machine gods no i like intelligent machines but they decided to do it one better the god reference and then the other thing is great actually i like casey newton's good ruse is the one ruse is the one who thought that the model fell in love with him and wanted to destroy his marriage and all that stuff he anthropomorphizes to an extreme so they they used to do hard fork so they've moved to npr yes yes okay yes okay so they didn't go out on their own they went from one big media organization to another yeah the other thing to mention is that a new york times story uh they built a shrine to cable tv then everyone cut the cord so there was a cable the cable labs were in denver because oh yeah i remember this right and john malone was there and so all things gravitated to john malone so they built this huge um building with a museum and everything else because cable tv because we all care about cable tv nobody cares about cable tv who has cable tv anymore no although i mean the whole idea of cutting the cord was that you could get it cheaper on the internet but now all the streaming and doing different pricing it's probably more expensive right than it was and you're still and the cable companies weren't stupid they just said well we've got all this coax in the ground we'll just put in it i mean i'm on comcast cable right now as my internet provider because they have monopolies they're already in the in every market and they they don't have any competition well in vegas we used to have a decent amount of competition between um you had quest then you had AT &T, you had Verizon, you had Cox.

2:36:00Wow. And Gigafiber. And then AT &T just bought Quest and Gigafiber. And they're buying the Cox licenses. So it's basically they're just reassembling a monopoly. Yeah. I love it. This museum, the Cable Center's museum, includes a TiVo remote. I guess that's ancient history now, that TiVo remote. Wow. i wonder if there's any original tivo users whose hard drives haven't died yet like the grandfather ones i had a bunch of tivos when we moved i let them all go i had lifetime you know lifetime subscriptions um and they just changed the definition of lifetime i said lisa i know you like the tivo but i think youtube tv we're gonna move might as well just do it all over the top over the internet and i tell you what nobody's missed cable nobody's missed tivo well leo in one of the give the famous giveaways at the brick house uh you had an old old kindle and it was one of the ones that had cell service like forever and so i disassembled it and i pulled the modem out and i i had been using that for years and years it came with free self-service there was no charge and it was forever you bought it forever and then they finally killed it last year they did you were using it until last year yeah i mean it was it was great for uh like scotta devices so i had a couple of devices that would just report on temperature it's pretty low bandwidth i'm sure very low bandwidth but i mean for that it was fine right um wow was it three um level three year it wasn't four or five no it was like i think he it was the first one i mean it was very first one and probably the reason it died is because it isn't uh the latest uh cable i mean uh cellular technology that's what i'm asking it was probably analog yeah oh i'm sure it was this is this is pre-lte so right yeah uh it was 2g patrick delahanty our uh esteemed engineer says i still have a TiVo HD with a lifetime subscription and I still use it damn it so there you go somebody somebody does it somebody in our Leo Laporte wrote the guide to TiVo I did I did with Gareth Branwen yep that was first generation TiVo and there it is the TiVo remote right on the cover actually I have a copy over here Father Robert so great to see you get to bed we appreciate it although you just had a shot of espresso you may not be you may not be sleeping soon And I miss you.

2:38:40I miss having you in a brick house. But I got to get out to Rome. You are always most welcome. You just tell me when. I will. Absolutely. And I think you're stuck there. I hate to say it. For a while. Yeah. I don't think you're coming home. That's okay. You got a higher mission. You got a job to do. That's for sure. Well, they let me travel back to the U.S. three times a year. That's good. You got a good gig. Thank you, Robert. Really appreciate it. Always wonderful. Padre SJ everywhere. Of course, Jeff Jarvis' book is available at his website, jeffjarvis.com, or go to Montclair, New Jersey. You don't have to go to Montclair.

2:39:20You don't have to go there. Go to jeffjarvis.com. You see the link, and you can get a signed copy. Nice. Very nice. It's really a good book. Highly recommend it. Very interesting. The Story of the Linotype. And on October 10, in Haverhill, Mass, I'll be giving a big presentation of the book in the historic New England and then going up the hill to the Museum of Printing where you can see a live linotype operate. Nice. Oh, that's cool. Man, I wish I were out there. Maybe my Google Dream Beans will tell us I should be going out there for that. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you, Jeff. I can't use Dream Beans because I'm on Workspace.

2:39:57Paul Thorat turned it on and he was like going on and on about it. It's the strangest thing because, you know, like people you work with show up in it it's just weird all right thank you robert all right thank you jeffrey thank you everybody for watching our club to it members our deepest gratitude thank you so much we do the show intelligent machines every wednesday 2 p.m pacific 5 p.m eastern 2100 utc you can join us uh by watching live if you wish in the club on the discord or youtube twitch x.com facebook LinkedIn or kick after the fact, get, he's drinking more coffee after the fact, get a, get a, the show, a copy of the show, audio or video at our website, twit.tv slash.

2:40:43I am there's a YouTube channel of course, or subscribing your favorite podcast client. That's the best way. That way you're supporting independent podcasting. Thank you everybody. We'll see you next time on intelligent machines. Bye-bye. Hi there, Leo Laporte here. I just wanted to let you know about some of the other shows. we do on this network. You probably already know about This Week in Tech. Every Sunday, I bring together some of the top journalists in the tech field to talk about the tech stories. It's a wonderful chance for you to keep up on what's going on with tech, plus be entertained by some very bright and fun minds.

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2:41:31into this animal scene. I'm an intelligent machine.