In short
A conversation with Vote Leave CEO Lord Matthew Elliott about how Brexit was campaigned for, whether Brexit made Britain poorer, and how modern campaigning (social media, micro-targeting, AI) will evolve. He also discusses his autism diagnosis and his current work as president of the Jobs Foundation, focused on getting autistic people into employment.
Guest background
Lord Matthew Elliott is the former chief executive of Vote Leave (No2AV and Vote Leave campaign experience). He previously helped build campaigns such as Taxpayers Alliance and Big Brother Watch. He was diagnosed with autism in his early 40s and now leads the Jobs Foundation.
Key claims
Effective campaigns need a clear objective and focused early priorities. Modern campaigning is faster and cheaper, but harder to cut through due to paid social promotion and algorithm changes. Brexit’s force came from financial-crisis-era stagnation, migration pressures, and anti-politician sentiment, plus a shift toward “cultural” voting. For referendums, target both core and swing voters using polling and messaging. AI enables more granular micro-targeting (compared to the US).
Notable examples
Recruiting Andrew Allum via Taxpayers Alliance networks; Vote Leave’s bus tour with Boris Johnson; polling since 2014; a “quadrant” model of leave/remain and turnout likelihood; Jobs Foundation stats (about 30% autistic employment vs ~75% national average) and JP Morgan’s 2015 study (48% productivity gain after hiring autistic workers).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOReflecting on Brexit and the Campaign Journey
0:04 to 0:27
Discussing the impact of Brexit and Elliot's reflections on his journey.
“It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks.”
Reflecting on Brexit and the Campaign Journey
2:28 to 3:42
Discussing the impact of Brexit and Elliot's reflections on his journey.
“Matthew, welcome to Jimmy's Jobs of the Future.”
Building Effective Campaign Teams
3:44 to 6:04
Elliott shares insights on how to build and manage successful campaign teams.
“What skills are you looking for in a kind of campaign team?”
Recruiting Talent for Campaigns
6:04 to 8:08
Exploring how to spot and recruit talent in the political landscape.
“with Taxpayers Alliance obviously I knew Alistair Heath from LSE and running the hike site together over being long-standing friends and worked together as a think tank after university.”
Measuring Campaign Success
8:08 to 12:06
Elliott discusses how to measure the success of political campaigns and pressure groups.
“You know I would be at the Marcus of Granby on a Friday night and there with the researchers the interns and sort of get to know them and be part of that mix.”
The Evolving Landscape of Campaigning
12:06 to 14:01
An exploration of how campaigning has changed and the challenges faced today.
“Yeah, that's a good way of thinking about it.”
The Evolution of Campaigning
14:01 to 18:01
Explore how campaigning has changed over the last decade, especially with social media.
“So just to show how things have changed in that time.”
The Role of Traditional Methods in Modern Campaigns
18:01 to 21:17
Discuss the effectiveness of traditional campaigning methods like buses and slogans.
“But of course, now, if you're getting most of your content through looking at YouTube or Instagram.”
Logistics and Teamwork in Campaign Management
21:17 to 24:17
Understand the logistics behind successful campaign rallies and the teams involved.
“which is one of the things that you're a specialist at, but that might be quite an interesting kind of case study.”
The Impact of AI on Political Campaigning
24:17 to 28:00
Learn how AI is transforming targeting strategies in political campaigns.
“And that's before you get on to the admin people, the ops people.”
Show all 24 chapters
Building a Digital Profile for Voter Targeting
28:00 to 32:33
Explore how digital profiles can influence political campaigning and voter behavior.
“If essentially you can build a digital profile for somebody based on their activity on Gmail or indeed WhatsApp.”
Understanding the Forces Behind Brexit's Popularity
32:33 to 36:46
Analyze the social and economic factors that made Brexit a significant political issue.
“Why do you think that Brexit became such a forceful issue?”
Cultural Issues vs. Economic Growth in Politics
36:46 to 42:00
Discuss how cultural issues have overshadowed economic growth in political discourse.
“because in a way, and I was struck by this in the book, you've always been focused on economics and growing the economy.”
Campaigning and Leadership Dynamics
42:00 to 44:10
Explore the distinctions between operational and political roles within political campaigns and the impact on leadership success.
“with Lyndon Crosby, et cetera, which is the campaign needs to be done by one side and then you need preparation for government almost need to be separated out.”
The Future of Campaigning
44:10 to 46:38
Discuss the evolution of campaign strategies, particularly the rise of single-issue campaigns and their implications.
“We've touched on AI a bit, but what are the things that we might see coming down the line?”
Diagnosis and Personal Insights
46:38 to 49:16
Delve into the speaker's personal experience with autism, its diagnosis, and its impact on professional life and understanding self.
“And that actually prompted me, why couldn't I be more flexible and adapt to this, as most people seem to?”
Employment Challenges for Autistic Individuals
49:16 to 51:46
Highlight the low employment rates for autistic individuals and discuss initiatives aimed at improving their workplace integration.
“Did it just give you more awareness and able to explain to people, look, this is the best way to work with me, etc.?”
Post-Referendum Reflections and Career Moves
51:46 to 55:51
Reflect on the professional challenges faced after the Brexit referendum victory and the founding of the Jobs Foundation.
“No, I remember Matt Hancock coming out about dyslexia definitely inspired me to kind of talk about it a bit more and, you know, sort of realise my ways of working, of, you know, not being a great writer.”
Building Coalitions in Politics
56:00 to 57:35
Learn about the importance of coalition building in political campaigns and its challenges.
“but we launched three years ago, co-founded with George-Jana Bristol.”
The Role of Business in Job Creation
57:35 to 59:08
Explore how businesses serve as a force for good by creating jobs and opportunities.
“And even if you get in there at a sort of fairly low level, if you work hard and consistent, you can sort of climb up the ladder, that's a great thing that businesses do.”
Future Employment and Economic Adaptability
59:08 to 1:01:01
Discuss the future of jobs in the context of economic trends and technological changes.
“But also takes me into my wider love of economics and having a good sort of pro-market, pro-enterprise economy where businesses can thrive.”
Evaluating Brexit's Economic Impact
1:01:01 to 1:04:39
Gain insights into the positive aspects of Brexit and its effects on the UK economy.
“One thing I would say is that, funnily enough, this slightly ties back to Brexit.”
Regulation and Economic Growth Challenges
1:04:39 to 1:07:57
Understand the challenges posed by regulation on economic growth and how to address them.
“not basically the basis of relationship that went back 40 years before that.”
Coalition Building and Personal Insights
1:07:57 to 1:09:41
Reflect on the skills required for coalition building and their relevance to personal experiences.
“And, you know, in a sense, pick some winners by making sure we've got the most optimal regulation in those areas.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:01This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. When you need to build up your team to handle the growing chaos at work, use Indeed Sponsored Jobs. It gives your job post the boost it needs to be seen and helps reach people with the right skills, certifications and more.
0:38Spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes. Listeners of this show will get a$75 sponsored job credit at Indeed.com slash podcast. That's Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Welcome to Jimmy's Jobs of the Future. Today I'm joined by Lord Matthew Elliott. Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, Matthew was the chief executive of Vote Leave, pulling off one of the most remarkable victories that's ever been seen in British politics. It ushered in a decade of huge change in British politics.
1:15Seems particularly prescient as we might be on to our sixth or seventh prime minister by the time that we publish this episode. it is quite extraordinary to think of all the change that has happened but what fascinates me about Matthew is understanding how he pulls together campaigns it's one of my great beliefs that we'll see more and more campaigns in the modern era and we talk quite a bit about that on the show as well in terms of we'll see lots of sort of mini and micro campaigns being set up around single issues and so on and so it was great to speak to the man who has built several campaigning machines has been somewhat of a political entrepreneur all the way through his life and also figuring out what to do after vote leave and what to do after that referendum and how he's now become president of the jobs foundation uh it was really interesting talking to him about all that and how jobs is become the key issue of which something we are in firm uh agreement on so it was great to sit down with Matthew and talk about all of these things I really hope you enjoy this episode.
2:28Matthew, welcome to Jimmy's Jobs of the Future. Thank you. A real honour to have you here. I've been somebody I've long admired as a kind of politico entrepreneur, having set many campaign groups up over the years. And so I'm really looking forward to talking to you about it all. And you've also just come out with this book 10 years on. Yes. Because you were the Vote Leave CEO. And it's 10 years, well, I think we'll be publishing this on the day pretty much, since Britain voted to leave the European Union. But what I really enjoyed was reading all about your backstory and so on. And you and I have known each other 15 years.
3:04But actually, you know, all the stuff about Leeds grammar and so on, I wasn't aware of. So how does it feel to have this out in the world? It goes from the very beginning, doesn't it? It feels great. And 10 years felt like the right time. So still some people remember what Brexit was and when it all happened, but also time has passed. So some of the initial sort of blowback and high tempers and all that sort of stuff have now slightly faded away. So it gave me a bit of perspective when I sort of went back to the book and basically rewrote for the new year to get it ready for publication. Excellent.
3:43Well, where I wanted to start was by talking to you about building campaign teams, because that's what you've done so often. And how do you go about it? What skills are you looking for in a kind of campaign team? I think the first thing to say is that I've always built campaigns that I believe in. And that may be an obvious thing to say, but of course, in the world now of lobbying, lots of slightly astroturfing campaigns are set up, which have a hidden interest, perhaps a corporate interest or something, or another interest. Whereas mine have always been, I've sort of spotted an issue, believed in it, and basically ran at it.
4:29So that goes way back to Taxpayers Alliance, Big Brother Watch, Business of Britain, all the different campaigns have had that as its core. I think the key thing is to have a very clear objective. Now, I can tell you what I've learned from the different campaigns in the sense of Taxpayers Alliance, a clear message in the sense of wanting to sort of fight government waste and to bring down taxes and that sort of thing. But to me, it was my first campaign I set up. I was in my early 20s, and I learned so many lessons from it. So, for example, I set off with this big idea. I'd sort of been to the US and seen all sorts of different taxpayer groups doing all sorts of wonderful things with, frankly, sort of multi-million dollar budgets and those European taxpayer groups as well.
5:17And I always tried to do everything at once. you know the newsletter the the waste book the the big book on how to cut taxes you know everything at once yeah um i think the key thing i learned from that was basically when you set something up new um focus on a few things to start off with and of course you'll build over time and you've got great projects for the future and ideas for the future but you've got to really focus on a few things and do them well and what how did you go about recruiting those first people because one of the chapters in the book that I love, the one things that I learned from it was how you met Alistair Heath at a Freshers' Fair event essentially.
5:55I thought how life could have been so different had that chance meeting not taken place. How do you go about kind of recruiting? So with Taxpayers Alliance obviously I knew Alistair Heath from LSE and running the hike site together over being long-standing friends and worked together as a think tank after university. So he was on the scene and his sister was, who I was very friendly with. And his sister, Florence, bumped into somebody called Andrew Allum, who she met through some political circles. And Andrew was also evangelical about cutting taxes and cutting waste. So we got him involved. And what was interesting about hiring Andrew, not hiring him, sorry, recruiting him, getting on board as a partner in all this, was the fact that he was slightly older than us, not too much, he was still very youthful, very energetic, but he brought a bit of sort of experience to the whole thing.
6:54And also, crucially, he was a member of the Business for Sterling's or no euro set of business leaders who were against Britain joining the euro, which may sound tangential to what we were doing at TPA, but that was a key group of business leaders who believed in these sort of more free market, free enterprise ideas. So it was a node into that world through him. But also, frankly, for me, being in my early 20s, I'd never set anything up. I'd just been a researcher and a university student. He gave me a bit of discipline and experience and know-how in terms of setting up an organisation and doing everything from the accounts to managing other people to teach me all of that.
7:36He did a great job of that. but it's also interesting about how much and this must be i assume one of the things that you're kind of proudest of is the amount of people that had started out at the organizations that you've worked at sort of alex deans mark wallaces daniel hamilton susie squire emma boone like that this sort of goes on and on how do you spot talent at a kind of early age before it's almost fully formed with people. I would say it was easier then than it is now and I say that because of course when I was doing Taxpayers Alliance I was in my sort of late 20s to sort of mid to late 30s sort of thing.
8:17You know I would be at the Marcus of Granby on a Friday night and there with the researchers the interns and sort of get to know them and be part of that mix. Now you know having with family and two girls and life in the suburbs and all that sort of stuff life is a slightly different stage so i'd actually say it's tougher now so i'm not as in with that current group of people who are coming through so i rely a lot more on the people we've got in the team already who are at that sort of younger age group to bring in their friends to events and to point out good talent um and how do you in a campaign how do you go about sort of developing talent as well because sometimes, particularly with No2AV and Vote Leave, it can be quite a short period that the campaign is really at full throttle.
9:08With something like a referendum campaign, it's quite difficult to sort of develop talent on a campaign like that because it's just so intense. It's developed in the sense that they're thrown into the deep end and they get the experiences straight away and they learn from sort of really highly skilled people who are involved in the campaign and it's a great place to learn. But you can't really do it in a formal teacher-learn way and that sort of thing. But I'd say similarly, when it comes to the campaign groups I've done, I've never really wanted to be the one sort of doing all of the media. It's not something I'm really comfortable with.
9:47It's not something I'm great at. So having brilliant spokespeople like, you mentioned the names, Mark Wallace, Susie Squire, Emma Boone, Dear Chakovati, many others. They're so articulate. They're great communicators. And I think in their sort of mid-twenties, as they were in the Taxpayers Alliance, to have the media wanting them to go on and talk about everything from government waste to MPs' expenses, the exposure they got was huge. And it was basically just saying, well, go for it. You know, there may be some mistakes along the way, but, you know, go for it. I want you to shine. and how do you set targets because obviously when there's a referendum there's very easy vote at the end of it how do you sort of measure things like tpa and big brother watch how do you measure their success and how has that changed over the 20 years it's interesting so um with let's say taxpayers alliance you know what's the objective overall it's really to make sure that money is well spent and that tax is a level where businesses can prosper, basically, essentially.
10:54Now, could we really be sort of held to account for the level of taxation within the country or the level of spending in the country? Not really as a sort of pressure group with 10 members of staff and that sort of thing. So I do slightly more in terms of the number of media hits.
11:11Social media impact is now a big one. We do. to. Getting out certain reports was always really important to create that buzz. We often had targets in terms of seeing people from the different parties. That was a really important part of it all. So it's more those sort of interim targets, if you like, rather than the sort of big challenge of basically actually bringing down the tax burden. Although I would say, actually, when it comes to taxpayers' lines in particular, I dread to think how much spending would have gone up or taxes would have gone up had it not been for the pressure of the TPA. I can regale countless stories where you get internal memos from the civil service saying, what would the taxpayers' alliance think about this?
11:53It's that pressure of knowing that we're out there, the TPA, ready with our FOI requests and asking MPs, written questions, lots of stuff, to keep people held to account. That was a pressure on the government. Yes. Yeah, that's a good way of thinking about it. And for anyone that's thinking of getting involved in campaigning, because it's at the exciting end of politics and policymaking, I often think, and it is where some young people can learn and thrive quite quickly, as you say. give us an overall structure of a campaign and and who you've got we've talked about the media people a little bit but there's kind of like ops people as well what are the sort of verticals to use a dreadful corporate speak phrase um about the the sort of the organogram as it were so what's really interesting is going back to even when i was setting up the um taxpayers alliance things were done in still quite a traditional way with creating a not-for-profit limited company and having a company's house account and bank account and accountants.
13:10It was all quite bureaucratic and traditional in how things were done. Now, I think the exciting point is the fact that things can be done slightly more on the fly. Basically, all it needs is somebody with a social media crowd and a couple of microphones to a podcast and you can start things going extremely quickly. And of course, then you need to fill in with doing everything properly in terms of legals, accounts and finance and what have you. But things can be scaled up much faster. Whereas going right back to when I was first involved in campaigning at university, think tanks and campaign groups were extremely traditional.
13:44We were literally mailing things out to people by post. We were faxing press releases to journalists. I remember my first think tank in the year 2000. The head of research had his personal Hotmail account, which was literally put on the magazine of the think tank as the contact point for the think tank, a personal Hotmail account. So just to show how things have changed in that time. And I would say this has cut the cost of campaigning, which has been a great thing. So you get more campaigns but then again if you've got more campaigns you've got more noise it's quite slightly more difficult to um cut through yes but it is also true as well that it's like easier to do the astroturf stuff now as well like it is i'm really intrigued to talk to you about how campaigning is has changed and particularly over the last 10 years right it seems to have just it has become so much noisier like how you cut through all of that noise or can you even sort of cut through now isn't just the point that you're you're going to have to add to it it is difficult to cut through um and socially as the um algorithms of the social media companies have changed moving much more towards uh paid advertising and paid promotion of um tweets tweets and posts.
15:07That's made it more difficult, particularly for startups. But I think if you can get creative and get some more high profile people involved and get them to lend you their social media channels, there's a lot you can do in that respect if you do that. So take, for example, the Jobs Foundation, the charity I'm currently present of. Bizarrely, our social media of choice is basically LinkedIn, because we're trying to reach out to businesses and business owners and employers across the country. So what better channel than using LinkedIn? It's the obvious one. And then when we do case studies and try and sort of talk about the great work these companies are doing in terms of getting people into work, getting them to post the content on their channels gives a wider reach and thereby gets more followers for us.
15:59So we're trying to think creatively like that. Yeah. employee generated content. No, I think it's a big thing. And I think it's going to become more important. And a lot of corporates don't actually trust their own staff to do it. And I think it is an interesting change that we're going to see over the next few years in terms of people being encouraged to do that. I remember a lovely line once hearing from some people who'd been helping the police forces with their kind of social media and Twitter accounts. And it was just like, we trust you guys with truncheons and to take people's liberty away, I think we can trust you with a Twitter account.
16:38I think that will become more important. How do you think the Brexit referendum, you would fight the campaign now 10 years on? Do you think it would be much more socials-based than it was? Because it made me think Twitter was definitely a thing around 2016, but it wasn't as big as it is now as part of the news cycle as much. So Twitter was fairly big and perhaps it was driven more by personal Twitter accounts. So there are a few instances when Dominic Cummings would send a tweet out and get the headlines going within the media in quite a big way. we chose to use our advertising budget towards the end of the campaign in that sort of final fortnight when people really sort of focused in and threw a lot at Facebook and Google at the time to get our content out on YouTube during that final fortnight whereas the Remain campaign was still slightly more traditional so it's slightly more sort of I don't think they quite did newspaper ads but they certainly did billboards and the sort of classics to a billboard and a politician standing in front of it.
17:53And you don't really see much of that now, do you? Really, when it comes to general election campaigns, it really is a lot more social media. And of course, this has been another key shift in UK politics, where if you go back 20 years, of course, we don't have paid TV and radio ads like in the States, where it's a big component of campaigning in the US, they're banned in the UK. But of course, now, if you're getting most of your content through looking at YouTube or Instagram. You can have ads on there. So that really has changed the nature of UK political campaigning. That's interesting. Yeah, of course.
18:34Well, how do you think the future for that will play out in the next few years? Do you think the government will try and alter that? Already, we've seen change in the rules whereby you have to identify where the content has come from yeah and who the content was targeted at um so there's all sorts of rules around that um i could see that being pushed um even further um of course there's another bill going through parliament very soon in terms of um the rules and regulations around um elections um i don't think that has a sort of social media component at the moment but i could see one being sort of tagged on before the bill reaches its, becomes an act.
19:15And, but of course, as well, like, quite old school methods can work as well. I mean, the bus and having the kind of the, take the 350 million pound back was actually something that hadn't been used for sort of 10 years. And actually something old school like that, which then can take a life on socials, works just as well. The bus was iconic. We had a bus for the No2AV referendum campaign, and I don't think it had a slogan on the side. Having the slogan on the side was fantastic. And, of course, one thing we were really blessed with at Vote Leave was having Boris Johnson, frankly, as a spokesperson.
19:56And when he came out for leave, that was a crucial point and definitely worth more than the percentage we won by, for sure. So he was that decisive factor. so having a combination of sort of Boris touring the country on the bus being able to pull up in a town or market square with the bus you know whack a sort of soapbox there have the microphone ready with the inbuilt speakers and be able to generate a crowd that's an image in its own right yeah so really that worked that worked really really effectively but it required having a politician who was willing to actually get out there and have a bit of back and forth with the public.
20:37And perhaps the consequences were lower for him in the sense that he was the most popular politician in the UK at the time. So, you know, going up and down the country with him, everybody was mobbing him for selfies and wanting a signature and all that sort of stuff. So it was perhaps less of an ask for him. And if you're the sort of PM or lead the opposition, it's more of an ask. but that certainly worked really well, providing an instant backdrop with the slogan, great footage for TV and basically a backdrop for little speeches and gatherings. Yeah. Talk to us through this sort of bus and actually like all the jobs that go involved in creating something like that.
21:16Because that's quite, because you've got the kind of polling and research, which is one of the things that you're a specialist at, but that might be quite an interesting kind of case study. And then getting the bus designed and all that kind of... Okay, so getting to the bus. So obviously you need the market research to start off with. And there's a whole bunch of testing and focus groups to make sure the messages are really hitting home. Lots of ABA ads and you count as testing to make sure that all works well. And really on Brexit, the polling for that went back to 2014 when we started testing things in a sort of serious way on all of that.
21:55So you've got the market research behind the slogan. Then, of course, you've got the fundraising. People often forget this. With any campaign, you do actually need to raise the money to hire the bus and to get it painted and decked out and get a driver and all this sort of stuff. So it's actually the fundraising is a key component. And on a campaign, one of the tough points there is the fact that just like the attention of voters only really comes in towards the end of the referendum, it's really the same with donors too. They slightly want to sort of hold back until they sort of can see the end in sight and they know where things are going and what's precisely happening.
22:34And then they will transfer the money or write the cheque to a campaign. So the fundraising is a key element of it to get it early on. That's really important. Then, of course, you've got all of the logistics people, the ops people. Again, organising a nationwide bus tour and getting the politicians in the right place at the right time, making sure there are friendly venues where you can pitch up at and do little meetings, organising all of the hotel accommodation for all of that, coordinating that with all the journalists and broadcasters to make sure they're in the right place at the right time.
23:11Those ops people are vital to all that. Then, of course, you've got the press people who will be there as well. You'll often have on the bus, of course, the politicians and some of those key staff. You probably have a few visiting journalists as well who are there for the day and want to follow Boris or Geetzer, whoever it was, or the candidate in the election, around for the day. And having those press people there is vital because, of course, you've got politicians there who are in their downtime, in between events, you know, trying to sort of perhaps catch a few winks, have some food. You've got journalists who want a story, peppering them with questions all the time.
23:51So you need those press people to act as a buffer in between. And then, of course, you have the researchers as well. So actually coming up with, you know, not only the things like a slogan, but the arguments behind a fact and, you know, buttressing it and, you know, sourcing it. Those researches really crucial to it all as well. So the combination of all those people makes crime campaign quite epic. And that's before you get on to the admin people, the ops people. We've got to say we had an HR person as well. It does get a very big organisation. Yeah. It's interesting on the fundraising and how people come in late to it.
24:32Oh, I can totally imagine that being the case. What is the, how do you think AI will sort of change all of this? Because there's part of me which thinks, well, AI is going to change everything fundamentally. But then sometimes with things like campaigning, actually, it might not alter it that much. It might alter the tools and the amount you can create. But actually, a lot of it is still going to remain the same. I think it's good to look to the United States to see how things will change. because they're so far ahead, because their budget's so much bigger for their elections. And if you go back a couple of decades, in the US, people basically bought mailing lists.
25:17And they assumed that if you liked basically a right-wing magazine called The National Review, you're more likely to be a supporter of the Republican Party. So you'd have a candidate who is vying to be a candidate in a certain state, you know, fighting a primary. Part of their early efforts were to buy mailing lists from centre-right magazines and organisations and write to those people asking them for money, to try and raise money for their campaigns. So that was the basic end of sort of campaigning. So it was basically based on mailing lists, postal mailing lists. Then, if you fast forward to where things were in 2016 for the Brexit referendum, what we were doing was basically looking at people's online activity, but basically, were they part of any fan bases for perhaps, you know, they liked Nigel Farage or they liked UKIP or they liked other sort of Eurosceptic groups or they liked Boris.
26:20you were trying to sort of think of tags like that to basically target people who like had those likes but we target them with our ads that was the very basic level now fast forward to where we are now and this has been done less in the uk but it's certainly been done in the us there is so much personal information about individuals now in the us and of course data laws are a lot laxer in the US than they are in the UK. It is basically at the level of people knowing from people's Gmail accounts what their specific likes and interests are, and being able to tailor ads to them based on precisely what they as an individual want.
27:02Not part of a group, they as an individual, their own activity. And this may sort of seem all very time consuming, how you can do this. of course with AI it's possible so really when you talk about micro-targeting this is micro-targeting down to the very individual yeah and that's where the cutting edge campaigning is now in the states wow that is uh that is insightful and and gmail becoming a bigger part of that then because i'm i'm intrigued about how yeah we talked about twitter earlier but like twitter is almost like a digital lobby in some ways, whereas Facebook, Instagram, you know, are actually the places where people are having the conversations that might influence people more than the sort of digital lobby that is Twitter X.
27:53But how does Gmail play into it? If, of course, the privacy laws in the US are much laxer than they are in the UK. If essentially you can build a digital profile for somebody based on their activity on Gmail or indeed WhatsApp. I think that can be looked into far more in the US than it can in the UK. You can build a very full picture of what that person is, what they like, what their interests are, what their preferences are, what their political persuasions are, to be able to make sure that the messages you're sending to them are very targeted. Interesting. And you talked about, in the book, 10 Years On, about the sort of quadrant of people.
28:38Yes. Talk us through that a little bit, because I found that fascinating. So with the referendum, basically one key thing to understand about a referendum is basically a two-candidate race. There are only two options. It's not like a general election where you can vote for perhaps six or seven candidates in your local constituency. There are two people you can vote for, essentially leave or remain in this case. And so that's one dimension. is somebody firmly for leave, firmly for remain or a swing voter. That's one dimension you've got to look at. The other dimension is basically how likely are they to vote?
29:14How enthusiastic are they about the referendum? How likely are they to vote? So, of course, your core vote is basically those people on my side who were for leave and extremely likely to vote. That was our basically core vote that we had to go for and had to get out on the day. of course you also need to go for the swing voters as well and the thing we identified early on was the fact that basically speaking you know shorthand people split up into thirds a third leave a third remain hardcore you couldn't change any opinions and a third of swing voters in the centre and for those third of swing voters in the centre they were instinctively inclined towards a more eurosceptic point of view perhaps not leave at the beginning but certainly wanted some powers back from the EU and had some doubts about what the EU was doing.
30:06But they also had doubts about the economics of it all. They had worries about what would happen when it came to, you know, growth and unemployment and what have you, worry to leave the EU. So you had to sort of satisfy those objections. But also, crucially, it's in terms of who they wanted to hear from. They didn't want to feel they were going to vote UKIP or vote for Nigel Farage by voting leave. So they wanted to hear from perhaps more mainstream politicians and ones who, like them, had gone through the journey of making up their minds. So that moment where Boris Johnson, who up until the moment he came out of his front door and came out for leave, nobody knew what side he was on.
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30:47And he put out briefings on both sides, and people really were guessing until the very last minute, would it be for leave or remain? That whole process, that whole build-up, and the fact he hadn't indicated which way, and he was the most popular politician in the UK, when he came out for leave, that was hugely important. What it meant for people is that they may also have been slightly doubtful and slightly on the fence and wondering which way to go. So to see Boris do that, who was very popular, swayed a whole bunch of people. And, of course, the other key thing was that with David Cameron, with the Bloomberg speech, what he'd said was that Britain would be better off out an unreformed EU.
31:28So when he failed to get anything meaningful from the renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the EU, essentially on his terms, he should have been voting leave. So it was actually quite a jump when he went in for Remain, and enthusiastically and full-heartedly, and then almost sort of said that the world would collapse, we were going to vote leave. So he lost credibility at that point. So we were thinking of the electorate really in terms of how will they leave or remain or swing voters and how enthusiastic were they going to be. And there were a lot of people at the beginning of the referendum thinking that it would be a fairly sort of, perhaps not low turnout, but like a low general election turnout, in which case would be the enthusiastic voters who would be turning out and that would be the key race.
32:13But what became apparent was actually that, as this was seen on referendum day itself, it was people who hadn't voted for years. and successive cycles hadn't been voting, who came out. And when that happened, we knew from that diagram we did right at the beginning that those people were more likely to be for leave. Yeah. Why do you think that Brexit became such a forceful issue? And what I mean by that is, in some ways, it's actually quite complex contracts law. And it's quite technical policy-wise. And yet it became this sort of lightning rod for the country in terms of it being such a significant issue that really stoked passion so strongly.
33:08Why do you think that happened? I think Britain, like other Western democracies, was going through a lot of change at the time. And you can see this in other countries too, where a combination of the effect of the financial crisis, that was crucial. And if you look at the period from 07-08 through to 2016, basically people's living standards hadn't really gone up very much. So people were feeling poor. And that whole thing of the 2.5 % growth we had until 2007, collapsing down to 1, 1.5 % growth a year after that, people really felt that in a big way. So they were feeling poorer than they were.
33:56Of course, you also saw the effects of migration. That became a huge issue politically. And that was really affecting people. And the whole idea of people saying, we want our country back. that sort of feeling was really hitting into politics. And also there's a rise of a sort of anti-politician feeling, which really came to the fore in the UK with the MP's expenses scandal in 2008 and 9-10, that sort of time. And that was a huge issue. But what I would say is that these three issues were happening across the Western democracies. And of course, we saw it within America with Donald Trump, who was the sort of same year, 2016 as well.
34:41But also we've seen in other European countries, with a slight lag to the UK, we've seen how politics has gone from being, broadly speaking, a centre-right party and a centre-left party, a sort of very traditional parties dominating the scene, to moving towards the extremes. And look at France, look at Germany. You see the rise of the populist parties on the right and the Green Party and Socialist parties on the left. This has happened in all the countries for all those similar reasons. But I think in the UK, and this again goes through the countries as well, there was a very traditional voting pattern in the UK up until really the 2000s where basically people were voting along some economic lines.
35:28And roughly speaking, the more well off you were, the more likely you were to vote Conservative. Yeah, broadly speaking. But it was very much a sort of two-party system, taking up the whole race. You've seen a change really since the millennium to now, where that sort of economic voting has been replaced by, some people call it cultural voting. Some people talk about, you know, more internationalist versus more sort of country-centric voting, nationalistic voting, different ways of describing it. but basically people's voting has changed. And now you almost have a situation where people are more likely to vote on the left if they're wealthier and they can be slightly sort of protected from the globalisation and migration and issues like that.
36:16And actually you tend to get people who are slightly poorer being more inclined towards the right now, voting reform and the like. So politics has really changed in a big way. Now, the fact it happened in the UK in 2016 with the referendum, that really criticised everything. And that was, in a sense, a big bang, just like Trump's election in 2016 was a big bang in US politics. But I would argue that similar changes have happened in other democracies for similar reasons. Why do you think the cultural issues have become so much more important? because in a way, and I was struck by this in the book, you've always been focused on economics and growing the economy.
36:57It's a big thing, yeah. And yet that has been a big problem since 2008. And yet rather than it kind of ratcheting up the political agenda, it's sort of, as you say, kind of, there are other things that have come in and sort of crowded around it that we expect from our politicians. We've come a long way from Bill Clinton, it's the economy, stupid. Yeah. Why? So I see the one reason for the culture wars as being low economic growth. And if you have basically GDP per capita stalling, in fact, going backwards in some areas. so people fighting over a static economic pie and having to be cut up into many, many more pieces, that's when you start having fights between people and people saying, well, your rivals shouldn't be getting this money.
37:52That's where the economics hits culture. If you've got a growing economy, you can absorb more migration and you can have less cultural tensions than if you've got a static economy. Yeah. It's interesting because every politician has almost defined this like they have led our country over the last few years from Liz Truss to Keir Starmer you know and Richard Sunak all saying growth is going to be my number one priority and then they get blown off course by it in one way or another and it just strikes me it is the issue that counts above all else and yet it doesn't seem to get interest. I think another problem is that politicians had longer time horizons if you go back to, let's say, the 80s when Thatcher was around.
38:42So what Thatcher did with her pro-growth free enterprise policies, she knew that when she brought them in, there would be a hit. But she was seeing things in terms of an electoral cycle of basically four or five years before the next election, where she could make some changes. She would have a dip in popularity for year one and two of her period in office. But by the time we got to years three and four, things will be on the upswing, people will see the benefits and will come round to the party again. Now you don't see that. Now basically politicians I think are much more obsessed by the short term, by following where public opinion is at any one time, by always keeping their popularity up and not be willing to do anything that's tough or difficult or will hit their popularity.
39:26And I think that's partly also changed in terms of how the media operates and things are much more bam bam bam rather than sort of daily news cycles and the ability of politicians to sort of separate themselves out of it i mean it was interesting i was talking to a labour mp the other day we are recording this before andy burnham has fought the kind of make feel by election which shows just how fast i need to say that but admitted that essentially they got caught up a bit in the kind of like hysteria and the momentum of it and living on twitter and we're now actually thinking like should i you know should we back starmer essentially which i just think is an interesting point but they've already come out and said that you should go and so you know it's just it's just really difficult but they got almost got caught up in that kind of crazy 48 hours i mean the labour party is my area of expertise but But I do wonder whether, looking back, when Keir Star was writing his memoirs, he'll think, you know, crikey, I wish I made more of the opportunity of the election in 24.
40:32Because from where I was sitting, it seemed like for basically a year, two years before that election, it was fairly obvious who he was going to win. So at that point, you could have really been preparing the ground and thinking about what to do. So when he came in, he could have had a really successful first 100 days, first budget, really focused on growth and things like that, making some difficult decisions when it came to things like planning to get house building going, perhaps making some difficult decisions in terms of tax rates for businesses to attract investment, knowing that they may slightly isolate his core vote on the left, but actually see the rewards come to the election, people actually realise why he was doing it.
41:15But the fact he didn't come in with a plan meant he lost momentum so quickly and in fact seemed to go contrary to what he was saying during the election. He was saying sort of go for growth, go for wealth creation and then bringing in the increase in employers and things like that. Just really cut that off straight away. Yeah, it's funny. The Maguire Pogren book I think is amazing on this in terms of like the lack of preparation that there was. I mean, it's like within 100 days they'd got the problem that, you know, they had to change the chief of staff, get rid of Sue Gray, etc. and it just seems mad kind of looking back on it all really.
41:52And how do you think, it's quite interesting though, isn't it? Because almost some of these things need to be separated out, right? It's like you need to let the campaign, it's actually what I think the Conservative Party got sort of quite good at with Lyndon Crosby, et cetera, which is the campaign needs to be done by one side and then you need preparation for government almost need to be separated out. They are two very separate things, which has probably only come about in the last 25 years or so. I think so. This is much more your area than mine. But it does strike me, if you look back at successful prime ministers of recent years who have sort of achieved what they were sort of setting out to achieve.
42:30This is probably controversial now, but let's say Tony Blair. Tony Blair in office. Having Jonathan Powell look after the operational side as chief of staff, and having the political side looked after by really sort of Alice Campbell and sort of Peter Mandelson, I guess. Yeah. Philip Gordons in the polling. So very clear division between the two. And similarly speaking, I'd say with David Cameron's time in opposition and into government, having Ed Llewellyn, very operational, you know trains running on time that sort of thing and very effective chief of staff very low-key with the politics being looked after by really sort of George Osborne in a sense yeah and Andy Coulson and people like that but again a very clear division between the two from my reading what happened within Labour is that Keir Starmer thought that Sue Gray would be the operational chief of staff making sure that Whitehall was running smoothly all the preparations were done and she seemed to try to take over from McSweeney and try and take on his political role as well, causing a whole bunch of infighting and, you know, frankly, ruining his first 200 days.
43:36Yes. I do think it's interesting in that sort of Downing Street chief of staff role, how both Llewellyn and Powell seem, well, works alongside the two longest-serving prime ministers of this century, right? And how much of the foreign affairs side of it they were able to pick up, I always think, is an interesting thing because that ends up taking up so much of the PM's time and people don't see that as much. So yeah, fascinating. What are your thoughts on how campaigning will change over the next 10 years? We've touched on AI a bit, but what are the things that we might see coming down the line?
44:17I think one thing we're seeing in terms of campaigning is really a much bigger focus on single-issue campaigns, which are perhaps slightly shorter-lived, perhaps in response to a certain government policy or a certain issue that's flared up in a country, and will only last that issue with that period of legislation. But those shorter-lived campaigns are a big thing. And like I was saying, with campaigning becoming much more um you know faster paced you can set things up quickly on social media uh they'll need less sort of back office if you like less resource to make it happen i think we'll see a lot more shorter lived single issue campaigns rather than perhaps the bigger more established campaigns that carry on for decade after decade after decade yes i think that's that's true it's my great worry actually you know sometimes we talk about universal basic income and whatever is that we'll just if that came in everyone would turn into like mini campaigners and it would be an essence of more left-wing stuff that's being campaigned for um so yeah that's a uh it's an interesting observation one of the most heart warming parts of the book is where you is the afterward where you talk about being diagnosed with autism and the kind of impact that's had, but also understanding how you've got special skills, partly as a result of it.
45:48What prompted you to go and get the diagnosis? Because you got it in your early 40s, right? It's a very good question. Funny enough, it was actually, I'd often had, I'd long had sort of suspected it. But when COVID hit and COVID affected us all in different ways, but for me, I'm quite regimented in my approach in the sense of going to the office at the same time every day, doing things a certain way, eating in the same places. I'm quite sort of boom, boom, boom. That's how I've always operated my life. And that's what I've been most comfortable with. And of course, when COVID happened, all that was disrupted.
46:26Going into working from home, in my case with our second child, just called the first day of lockdown. So, a toddler in the house does a new baby, and lockdown happening, and what's happening. That really threw me one. And that actually prompted me, why couldn't I be more flexible and adapt to this, as most people seem to? so that really thought okay right let's go from sort of thinking i might be autistic to actually getting it properly diagnosed so i did and i'm really pleased that day because i think it helps me understand myself a lot better and it's given me um some great traits um in particular i think the the focus i have um has been a big sort of help so uh the whole thing with um special interests and for me, basically not just politics more broadly, but also the single issue campaigns I sort of grab on.
47:24And to be able to sort of channel that interest into all the ups and downs of sort of setting something new up means it perhaps gives you a bit more resilience and perseverance than perhaps other people would have. So as you know, with any startup, you need to see through difficult times. So for me, having that sort of focus has been a great help with those sort of single issue campaigns. It's had some sort of difficult sides too. I think that with politics, obviously a lot of it's verbal and about communication. That's never been a thing that's come naturally to me, going way back to my sort of childhood and, you know, speech therapists and non-verbal and all that sort of stuff.
48:05So that's always been a challenge to me. So I've had to sort of think of waves around that, not least hiring great people to do a lot of the comms for me, which has been helpful. But having that diagnosis really helped. And also, I think it helped me, funny enough, helped give me a little bit of an insight into what I do now with the Jobs Foundation. And one of the challenges facing the autistic community in the UK is very low rates of employment, about 30 % compared to a national average of 75%. But one of the crucial challenges is getting more autistic people into work. So for me, that sort of sparked a little bit of an interest in terms of what I'm doing with the Jobs Foundation now.
48:50But I feel very comfortable with it and I haven't really started talking about it until recently. But I felt that with the book, with the memoir, because I talked so much about it in quite a personal way and transparent way, I hope, in terms of my career and some of the ups and downs of different campaigns and Brexit and the aftermath, I thought I had to have that additional dimension in there as well and talk about my autism. And how did it change the way you approach things? Or did it? Did it just give you more awareness and able to explain to people, look, this is the best way to work with me, etc.?
49:27Like, how did it change your approach? I think it has helped internally in the sort of the team and office environment. Again, I can be quite structured and quite rigid and I like things done in a certain way. And I would hope that with colleagues, being open about it has helped them as well.
49:51Yeah, I think that's a key one. Talk me through some of the stats about autistic people and the work at the Jobs Foundation. Because I was quite struck by like how big the divergence is. Sure. So the employment stats, you know, 30 % of autistic people who work should be sort of 75 % of its national average. There's 45 % gap there. There are all sorts of great businesses who do lots of good work in this area. I could name a few we've seen like Green King, the pub chain. They have a special scheme to help neurodivergent people into work, in particular autistic people. What they've often found is actually there can be some – this is why they have training schemes and special schemes for it – initial issues in terms of making sure that people can integrate well and understand the job well.
50:49But once they're in the job and working there, actually their longevity in the job and the fact they stick around tends to be much better than most employees. JP Morgan did an interesting study back in, I think it was 2015, where they hired four autistic people to come and do work in the bank. And what they found was within six months, those people were 48 % more productive than the people who'd been there for a long time. So actually getting people into a job, training them, point them in the right direction, you can see huge productivity gains. That scheme is now done by many professional companies across the world.
51:33So I think as people become more aware of neurodivergence, I think you'll get more companies doing schemes like this. and actually in the world of um we talked about ai earlier and ai changing the employment market um you may get companies actually thinking they need people who do perhaps see the world in a slightly different way yeah i think that's true and i think it's an area that we've probably underutilized well definitely underutilized in terms of it um but it will be fascinating to see how it uh how people do do it because i think it is such a it is such a scale uh and i was thinking there's the stat that you had around 700 000 uh uk adults with autism i part of me thought about your own story in that and i wondered how many are undiagnosed beyond that potentially as well like it's i think there'll be a lot and i think over time there'll be more and more who come out and perhaps more um open about it which I think would be a good thing.
52:35Yeah, absolutely. No, I remember Matt Hancock coming out about dyslexia definitely inspired me to kind of talk about it a bit more and, you know, sort of realise my ways of working, of, you know, not being a great writer. And actually it's something that AI has helped with a lot, right? Because I can get good thoughts down on paper, but, you know, it really helps sort of tidy it up and stop silly spelling and grammar mistakes. um what was the process like after vote leave and after you've won the referendum and how did you decide kind of what to do next that's a great question um i was probably being very naive after vote leave so i sort of almost thought that um you know uh historic unexpected referendum victory um you know companies will be sort of falling over backwards too so welcome me to their great hauls or great salaries.
53:31It wasn't like that. Of course, the shock of the result and the backlash from it meant there was that period afterwards where basically, I won't say I was cancelled in any way, but I suddenly wasn't welcome in some of these great companies. You mentioned in the book about social invitations and things sort of drying up, definitely. Social invitations definitely dried up. And funnily enough, there's some bizarre examples too. I did actually go to work part-time for Shore Capital Group, which I loved working in a bit of investment banking. That's my side of things. I loved that. One day out of the blue, somebody got in touch working for one of quite a big corporate, I'm not going to name them.
54:17We started exchanging articles about Brexit and that sort of thing, as you do on LinkedIn and messaging. And they were working quite close to where SureCap is. And they said, do you want to go out for coffee one day? And I said, sure. And it was all sort of set up. And on the day itself, when it came, they cancelled. And they cancelled because they'd mentioned it to their boss. And their boss said, it wouldn't be a good idea if you do that. He's a Brexiter. So literally, because I was a Brexiter, they thought I couldn't go out for coffee. It wasn't going to be any sort of financial transaction.
54:50and there was nothing based on it. It was just purely two people with an interest in basic current affairs and what was going on beating up. Couldn't happen. That is mad. Yeah. That's how I just don't understand how it became so sort of totemic for people. Like, it's quite strange. Yeah. But talk to us about sort of the Jobs Foundation founding that. Like, what were the other sort of process? Once you got through that, But I mean, and also one of the things I found in that period was that it sort of, it dipped for a while in terms of Brexit anxiety. And then there was the challenge with the general election result.
55:32And then it just, then it started to go up and up and up again towards 2019. And it just, yeah, it was kind of, there was a weird, from my perspective, where I was. But there was a sort of, there was a law and then it all ratcheted back up again. I guess it sort of got caught up with Tory wars, frankly, in a sense, and post-2017 general election and all that. In terms of where I'm now, president of the Jobs Foundation, which I founded basically five years ago, but we launched three years ago, co-founded with George-Jana Bristol. And really, that's a great example of being able to use transferable skills.
56:13because one thing which is a sort of continuation throughout my career is building coalitions and sometimes tricky coalitions and you know in the book there's all all the sort of story in terms of building the vote leave coalition but it was same with the no to av campaign where we had to convince two-thirds of labor mps and peers to come on board as no even though ed milliband their leader at the time was in favor of yes getting different unions on board and i was there who's fresh from fighting MPs' expenses at the TPA, trying to get these people on board and sort of join a campaign, that was tough.
56:49So actually building those coalitions is perhaps one of the skills I've developed. And that's been helpful with VOTO AV, Vote Leave, definitely Jobs Foundation, and now trying to build a coalition of companies, large and small, but cross-party as well. And And it was brilliant to be able to publish a pamphlet recently on energy costs and North Sea oil and gas and get the GMB to write the forward. That's fantastic. So we're campaigning for the same thing. So I love that sort of coalition building side of things. And that's possibly why I've always kept a slightly lower profile in politics. It's easy to build those coalitions if you're not out there commenting on every bit of news that goes out there.
57:35Yeah. as we now see so often uh there's always a tweet um yeah exactly and and what's the what's the kind of aim of the jobs foundation and what are you trying to uh achieve with it so the aim of the jobs foundation is really to show how business is a force for good really for the jobs and training and opportunity that provides and i think this is a great untold story and you know it may seem obvious to you and me, especially with your podcast, that basically the fact that business is out there and creating all of these jobs, and it's not just a job, it's not just a pay packet at the end of the day, it's an opportunity for somebody.
58:15And even if you get in there at a sort of fairly low level, if you work hard and consistent, you can sort of climb up the ladder, that's a great thing that businesses do. And then that takes you on to the sort wider context of how can you make sure that businesses are thriving so they can create even more jobs. And then that leads you into the whole issue of economics. What's the right energy policy to make sure you have low energy costs? What's the right tax policy, making sure we don't have higher employees? And I, that's killed a lot of jobs and really harmed the NEATS employment market in a big way.
58:53So really, it takes me on to the wider economic policy. But But really, for me, the personal thing of making sure there are jobs out there and giving people that leg up in life, that's really important to me emotionally, actually, as a sort of mission in life. But also takes me into my wider love of economics and having a good sort of pro-market, pro-enterprise economy where businesses can thrive. and where do you see the future of jobs in terms of do you think now that we are in a permanent sort of declining employment force etc or you know because it was only six years ago that we were sort of at peak levels of employment and it's it's now one of these things again it's like one of those slow trends now that it's more more people becoming unemployed and it's interesting talking back to you about the sort of low productivity and low economic growth.
59:47I just wonder if we sit down in five, ten years' time from now, what will look like we're living in right now when it comes to jobs? When it comes to the employment rate in the UK, let's focus in particularly on NEETS. It's easy to think that perhaps the NEETS crisis and NEETS challenge is perhaps to do with, you know, reckless youth or social media and things like that. Well, if that was the case, why do other countries not have a needs crisis post-COVID? So it is slightly structural to the UK and the UK jobs market. And I'm really confident that the UK can get this right, but we need to have flexibility as an economy.
1:00:33AI is coming. We've got to be flexible to adapt with it. We've had technological changes before, and we've always had the flexibility to make sure that the new companies of the future, the new jobs of the future, are being created and set up. But if we're too inflexible, that's when we'll really be hit by AI. So I really hope that we have a flexible enough economy, one that will attract the right investment set to the new companies, that we don't get hit too hard by it. One thing I would say is that, funnily enough, this slightly ties back to Brexit. By being in charge of our own regulatory regime, it has meant we'd be able to carve a bit of a niche out on things like tech policy.
1:01:16That's one of the great drivers behind the tech in the UK, which is one of the key areas of growth. Ditto life sciences, that's really helped with it as well. So you can find these areas of the economy where if you have control over the regulation, you can make sure that you actually carve out a good future for the UK. So I hope that whoever's prime minister in a few weeks time, when they're thinking about the economy going forward and employment going forward, they're making sure that the UK as an economy is able to attract the right investment, the right talent, to be able to make sure we have those jobs and companies of the future.
1:01:51one of this i really enjoyed towards the end of the book was the chapter of sort of evaluating brexit and kind of how it's gone on because i don't think enough of that deep analysis happens and i think there becomes a trait that is happening amongst people to sort of say that it was there is a kind of consensus forming around the kind of metropolitan liberal elites yeah that it's not been a good thing, it's damaged economic growth, etc. Now we can all see that. Whereas actually, you had a list of reasons pointing out what had gone well in it. But it feels like that conversation does get... That argument doesn't get put forward as much.
1:02:38Now, it's partly, I think, because the Brexiteers don't have the institutions. And so they've sort of... They've kind of disseminated a little bit. I'd just love your take on that. This comes back to campaigning. When you're in opposition, if you like, you have every reason to basically pull together a campaign. So when Britain was inside the European Union, of course it was Eurosceptics who were sort of setting up campaign groups and campaigning away and creating the weather in the media. Now we've left the EU, it is more the pro-EU side, the Remain side, if you like, who are out there campaigning away and creating the stats and feeding these to the media.
1:03:18So in a sense, the Brexiteers have taken a step back, which is perhaps a mistake. I would say though, that when it comes to Brexit itself and evaluating it, I think you do need sort of a cool head. Of course, it wasn't project fair. That didn't happen. The economy didn't collapse. and we didn't get a spike in unemployment, that didn't happen. People talk about how perhaps there was a sort of decline of growth because of Brexit. What I would do is basically track us against other Western European economies. And we've certainly done better than Germany and Italy by a long shot. And we've done roughly the same or perhaps slightly better than France, depending on the stats that you've got, per capita or as a whole.
1:04:06So I'd say within that swim of sort of Western European economies, we're basically with them. And I think that Tony Blair was writing his essay a few weeks ago when he said that it's not about Brexit. And if you think that rejoin the EU will change things, that's basically his own comfort blanket. We've got to actually look at where we are as a country now with the world economy as it is and the rise of AI and the rise of the Middle East and China. and evaluate our position from that basis, not basically the basis of relationship that went back 40 years before that. So I think as a country, we really need to think, we do have a growth problem in the UK.
1:04:49How do we fix that? All the tools are there. And I can sort of plug another book that I wrote last year on prosperity through growth. You very kindly had Arthur Laff on the podcast last October, I think it was, to talk about that. But in terms of the tax spending, regulation, trade, monetary policy the formula for economic growth is there if you have the political will and the stamina to follow it what do you think about the power of regulators that is one of the things that really strikes me now that is the biggest challenge that we have with our economy is that these regulators that's obviously regulations existed 30 40 years ago but these things and it's one of the reasons why i'm very skeptical about the football regulator because it will just get bigger and bigger that all of these do and the power they amass is actually quite large and there is no democratic accountability for a lot of them the football regulator is a great example because of course people almost don't don't sort of see the um premier league as being a business do they no they sort of think it's almost like sort of part of civil society perhaps yes um but it is actually at its core really a business isn't it and there's a big chance with the football regulator, that will kill off the Premier League as being a sort of, you know, key asset for the UK and being sort of the best football league in the world.
1:06:13It's a real danger. At a more sort of granular level when it comes to regulation, I think there's some basic things we could get right. One is planning. That's a huge one. And, you know, the government, of course, came in with, you know, great aspiration to build a lot more houses as every government comes in with that aspiration to build more houses. And there's some basic things in there, like things like the Habitats Directive from the EU, which is basically at its heart why HS2 ended up costing so much. There's some basic things like that that we need to look at and take a sort of serious look at these rights to make sure we're building and sort of growing as a country and having the right infrastructure and housing for people.
1:06:55So we need to look at things like that. But also I think that when it comes to regulation more generally. I think, for example, Eurosceptics after the referendum, once we left the EU, there's almost a feeling that let's just reverse all of the Brussels regulations. That will fix everything. Now, that basically wasn't going to happen because there was so much of it. Much better to incorporate it as it was already incorporated in law and then basically work out right as a country what do we want our economic future to be where do we see the growing parts of the economy being uh yeah we've got a great specialism in life science that's great for the uk uh we've started one in sort of tech we're doing pretty well in that um the other sectors too yeah universities and what have you where we really excel at the moment how can we make sure that regulation and tax policy is properly optimized to make sure that those areas, those bets we're placing, are the ones that will really take off over the coming years.
1:07:56And I think that any government coming in really needs to sort of think about the economy in those terms. And, you know, in a sense, pick some winners by making sure we've got the most optimal regulation in those areas. Yeah, I completely agree. One final thought I just wanted to ask about, perhaps ties a few of the threads together a bit, is you've talked about your kind of special skill building coalitions. That is not a trait that would probably be normally associated with autistic people in terms of they are often seen as sometimes they work in a way that is suitable for them, etc. That's interesting.
1:08:38But it's quite... So I just wonder how you sort of pull that together. I don't know. That's a very interesting thought. Maybe one will have to come back. With coalition building, a lot of it is perseverance too. So actually having that map in your mind of basically, right, what's the coalition that we need to be able to win this thing? Who are the people we need to be involved? You know, that's all. You'd call it stakeholder mapping, wouldn't you, in PR and public affairs. You know, who's that universe of people that we need to approach and who are the right messages for them and what's the right message?
1:09:12When I start out with a campaign, I do have a vision of how it can be won. And basically from the beginning to the end, what's the right message for it? Who are the right messengers? What's the right medium to get the comms out? So actually be able to sort of see that vision for how it should look and then be able to piece it all together. And having the patience and persistence to actually bring it all together. That's perhaps a skill. I think that is a very neat way to finish. Lord Elliot, thanks very much for coming on Jimmy's Jobs for the Future. It's been a real pleasure.
1:09:47you you
From the publisher
Lord Matthew Elliott on Vote Leave, Modern Campaigning, AI Microtargeting, and the Jobs Foundation
Jimmy interviews Lord Matthew Elliott, former Vote Leave CEO and author of “Ten Years On,” about building and running political campaigns, recruiting and developing talent, and measuring success through objectives, media impact, and interim targets.
Elliott contrasts traditional campaigning with today’s faster, noisier, social-driven landscape, describing Vote Leave’s use of polling, fundraising, Facebook/Google ads, and the iconic bus tour with Boris Johnson, plus the operational roles behind it.
He discusses how AI and data-driven microtargeting, especially in the US, could reshape elections, and predicts more short-lived single-issue campaigns. Elliott reflects on Brexit’s effects, arguing the UK avoided “Project Fear” outcomes and has performed comparatively well versus some European economies.
He also shares his adult autism diagnosis, links it to his focus and work, highlights low autistic employment rates, and outlines the Jobs Foundation’s mission to promote business-led jobs, training, and pro-growth policy.
Chapters:
00:00 Brexit Ten Years On
01:14 Meet Matthew Elliott
02:43 Building Campaign Teams
04:40 Recruiting Early Talent
07:50 Developing Spokespeople
09:22 Measuring Campaign Success
11:12 Modern Campaign Playbook
13:23 Cutting Through Noise
15:44 Brexit Campaign Today
18:11 The Iconic Bus Strategy
20:08 Behind the Bus Operation
23:34 AI and Microtargeting
27:31 Winning Swing Voters
31:33 Why Brexit Hit Hard
34:37 Culture Replaces Class
35:45 Why Culture Wars Rise
37:28 Short Term Politics Trap
40:50 Running Government vs Campaigning
43:05 Future of Campaigning
44:29 Autism Diagnosis Story
48:53 Autism and Employment Gap
51:58 After Vote Leave Fallout
54:56 Building Jobs Foundation Coalitions
58:18 NEETs AI and Flexibility
01:00:51 Brexit Reassessment Debate
01:04:13 Regulators Planning and Growth
01:07:10 Coalition Building Skillset
01:08:36 Closing Thanks
**********
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