Rory Sutherland | The Future of Marketing

16 Sep 2025 · 1 h 6 min · 27 chapters

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In short

Rory Sutherland (Ogilvy) discusses the future of marketing and branding through behavioral science, social proof, and how information design can change behavior more effectively than infrastructure or regulation. He argues businesses should focus on persuasion first, use better “proxies” for talent than degrees, and build marketing channels to avoid press-office risk aversion. He also addresses EV myths and how Octopus Energy’s brand makes energy feel fun.

Guest background

Rory Sutherland is a UK advertising/branding figure associated with Ogilvy. He’s known for high-impact talks (e.g., Design Museum, 2016) and viral social media clips.

Key claims

Social proof can mislead; “cover-ups” are more plausible than conspiracies; curiosity predicts creative talent; focus groups optimize for knee-jerk soundbites; branding can make or break good ideas; market feedback (profit) beats bureaucratic “defensible reasoning.”

Notable examples

London Overground “tube-map” marketing; calorific/energy labeling; Lucky Saint alcohol-free beer framing; “dementia tax” branding; nuclear power’s bad naming; Taleb’s brain-surgeon appearance example; EV range myths; citizens assemblies as better market research.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Rory's Background and Insights

0:04 to 0:27

Rory shares his experiences and thoughts on marketing and branding.

“It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks.”

Rory's Background and Insights

1:55 to 3:00

Rory shares his experiences and thoughts on marketing and branding.

“the show now i'm absolutely sort of team android and i've got a samsung galaxy uh s24 ultra i've We've got an Android tablet.”

Social Proof and Trust in Brands

3:00 to 4:13

Discussing the concept of social proof and its implications in branding.

“What are the counterintuitive examples of social proof?”

The Nature of Work and Cooperation

4:13 to 6:06

Exploring the differences between academic and work environments.

“We're here in the Ogilvy offices, the amphitheatre bit.”

Bottlenecks in Opportunity

6:06 to 7:46

Rory discusses the issues in educational systems and opportunity access.

“Do you think academia should have more sort of collaborative things?”

Spotting Talent and Curiosity

7:46 to 10:00

Rory shares criteria for identifying talent and the importance of curiosity.

“And it's not a great way to create actually either a fair or a diverse, pluralistic and economically wealthy society.”

Conspiracy Theories and Their Implications

12:15 to 14:00

Exploring the nature of conspiracies and their relevance in society.

“Apparently it's become quite a popular question now in America, higher echelon places, to ask which conspiracy theories people believe in.”

The Risks of Leadership in Politics

14:00 to 15:00

Explores the consequences of risk-taking in political leadership.

“But I think you're probably seeing this with Ferraro's Boris Trump phenomenon, right?”

The Role of Irrationality in Decision Making

15:00 to 17:41

Discusses the potential benefits of irrational decision-making in declining situations.

“And there's a brilliant, by the way, a podcast.”

Living with Dyspraxia and ADHD

17:41 to 19:48

Shares insights on the challenges and advantages of neurodiversity in creative fields.

“There's probably some sort of compensatory mechanism.”
Show all 27 chapters

Comedy as a Tool for Perspective

19:48 to 22:54

Explores how comedy offers alternative viewpoints and solutions to serious issues.

“He's not actually the Prime Minister of Bangladesh.”

Marketing Genius Behind London's Overground

22:54 to 25:57

Analyzes the marketing strategies that transformed the perception of London's Overground.

“So again, it teaches you that difference between winning an argument and solving a problem.”

The Power of Information Presentation

25:57 to 28:00

Examines how changing informational presentation can influence behavior more than infrastructure.

“Now, when you go to Transport for London and you have a problem, their reaction, their knee-jerk reaction will be, we need to change the infrastructure.”

The Impact of Consumer Labelling

28:00 to 30:31

Explore how labeling influences consumer choices and retailer standards.

“OK, so they're not opposed to labelling.”

The Rise of Alcohol-Free Beers

30:31 to 32:36

Discuss the success of alcohol-free beers and their market framing.

“which I think is an interesting match of marketing and technology, the sudden explosion in alcohol-free beers, is fascinating.”

The Entrepreneurial Mindset

32:36 to 35:33

Understand the differences between entrepreneurial and bureaucratic mindsets.

“Well, the epiphany was working in direct marketing.”

Tribalism and Identity in Modern Politics

35:33 to 38:00

Examine how tribalism affects political identity and social media dynamics.

“And also, if you can talk to even an audience of 100, OK, it's still a big network effect.”

Humor as a Tool for Managing Differences

38:00 to 42:00

Learn how humor can help navigate cultural differences and foster relationships.

“Well, you have, if you think about it, a kind of middle-class, which doesn't really come much into contact with people who don't think like that.”

Psychological Hacks in Business

42:00 to 45:00

Explore how psychological strategies can mitigate stereotypes and biases in business.

“And, you know, the solution to a lot of these things is to have people aware of things but not give a shit about it.”

The Role of Creative Risk in Business

45:00 to 47:40

Discuss the importance of creativity and risk-taking in successful business ventures.

“as a press officer if you keep everybody out of the press altogether.”

Customer Experience and Marketing Insights

48:20 to 54:40

Understand the significance of customer service and marketing in business success.

“It's exactly like, you know, there are loads of things, by the way, which nobody knows what they mean, OK?”

B2B Marketing and Creative Approaches

54:40 to 56:00

Examine the uniqueness of B2B marketing and creative campaigns that stand out.

“I work in Ogilvy Consulting precisely because I don't care what the media spend is.”

Innovative Legal Solutions for Transport Companies

56:00 to 57:18

Learn how a unique pricing model for legal services can benefit transport operators.

“They have a very simple pricing model, which is to cover all your legal needs, you pay, I think it's 20p, it might have gone up now, 25p per vehicle per day.”

Psychological Pricing Strategies

57:18 to 58:28

Discover the importance of rebates over price reductions in B2B marketing.

“Now, price framing, okay, A lot of these psychological things, which we've kind of discovered through working in consumer marketing, can be not transplanted, but translated into B2B.”

Challenging the Status Quo in Advertising

58:28 to 1:01:13

Explore how the payment model in advertising can hinder creativity and value delivery.

“And that would also be true, I think, of legal firms and everybody else.”

The Future of Warfare: Cognitive Strategies

1:01:13 to 1:02:31

Understand the implications of cognitive warfare discussed in historical and modern contexts.

“Ultimately, engineering is constrained by the rules of physics, which are annoyingly strict.”

Marketing Kept Humble: The Art of Claims

1:02:31 to 1:04:22

Learn about the delicate balance of self-promotion and external validation in branding.

“I'm not sure he ever wanted to be Prime Minister in the end.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:01This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. class it up with crocs you know back to school is coming in fast so why wait to find your new fave footwear step into a local croc store and step into your new look try it style it make it yours because the right pair doesn't just show up it shows off first day fits handled walk out ready for whatever's next.

0:51Visit your nearest croc store today. Welcome back to Jimmy's Jobs of the Future. Today I'm joined by the UK's most popular podcast guest, Rory Sutherland. Now I first came across Rory Sutherland in the Design Museum in 2016. He was speaking to a room of several hundred, maybe even a thousand tech entrepreneurs and he just gave the most spellbinding speech and at that moment I thought I really hope I get to sit down with him one day for longer than ever. He's obviously become a bit of a TikTok star, social media star over the last few years as some of his takes have been clipped up. He has a very engaging way of speaking.

1:29As many of you wrote, after the first time I interviewed him, Jimmy could just hit play and walk out of the room and let Rory go. It definitely feels like that sometimes. But in the second half of this interview, we had some very interesting takes on where the world of branding and marketing is going. but yeah it's a it's a great episode i really hope you enjoy it this episode is powered by octopus energy and in particular their electric vehicles we'll be talking more about it later in the show now i'm absolutely sort of team android and i've got a samsung galaxy uh s24 ultra i've We've got an Android tablet.

2:11And the reason is a bit weird, which is I'm happy to admit that the latest iPhone might be better slightly. However, I also know enough about human psychology to know there are about 200 million people in the world who, if Tim Cook stood up and announced that the next iPhone was going to be a turd on a stick, they'd still rush out and queue and buy it. And therefore, I trust Android buyers to be actually rational actors, and therefore the popularity of any Android phone is a reliable signal of its quality because they've bought it despite the fashion. Whereas in Apple, I would argue that the herd mentality and the complete cultish nature of the thing means I can't quite trust social proof.

3:00That's interesting. What are the counterintuitive examples of social proof? Well, an interesting example would be Nassim Taleb's suggestion that if you have to choose between two brain surgeons, and one of them looks like a brain surgeon from central casting, you know, Ivy League degrees, you know, grey hair, and the other guy looks a bit like a butcher with a tie not done up and his top button undone, you pick the latter, because the latter one has succeeded despite his appearance, whereas the former may have succeeded because of his appearance. Yeah. Okay? And so, generally, whenever anybody appears on television as a spokesman who looks implausible or unlikely, the most underrepresented group on TV, by the way, which would be older women, were also the sanest part of the population by and large.

3:52OK? So women in their 40s, 50s and 60s are probably the most sensible demographic in the entire population by some measure. and yet they're the least likely to appear on television and be asked their opinions. When those people appear on television, there's a really good reason for them to be there and therefore you should pay double attention. That's really interesting. We're here in the Ogilvy offices, the amphitheatre bit. What was the first thing that you ever did for money? What was your first job? Oh, that's interesting. Well, I did various things like envelope stuffing and paper rounds and things like that.

4:28Then as a holiday job for two years while I was a student, I worked in the Beecham's Ribena factory in Colford. The first year as a kind of dog's body, and the second year as a forklift truck driver, which I have to say I enjoyed immensely. If you ever get the chance to drive a forklift truck, you should definitely take it on because it's a joy. And what did that teach you about the world of work, etc.? I mean, that's very different to the creative agency we set out looking out over St Paul's. There's a huge component to the world of work which is unexpectedly gratifying, which is, when you think about it, most academic activity is kind of rivalrous and individual.

5:12Yeah. So you might argue the education system does an incredibly bad job of judging people's ability to work cooperatively with other people because it's so interested in sifting and sorting people individually. Yeah. That it's got a bit better. There's more teamwork involved in academia. But one of the things you realize that actually work is social... Yeah. ...in a way that actually academic work simply isn't. And actually, academia is remarkably non-social. I mean, I've got a wonderful friend called Paul Dolan who complains that, um, having come from a kind of working-class East End background, he says that the thing he really misses when he's in academia is there's a complete absence of banter and badinage.

5:55Um... And actually, when you get into the world of work and you suddenly realise, hold on, we can actually solve this problem through cooperation, it's a bit of an epiphany. Do you think academia should have more sort of collaborative things? Because you're right, I mean, you don't really work with anyone. And so my daughter did geography and planning at Newcastle and quite a lot of the work was team projects where they each played to the individual strengths. And so not everything was judged purely on an individual basis. Yeah. I mean, the other problem with academic sorting is that in order to be fair, you have to apply the same criteria to everybody, which means you effectively select for the same things every time in every person.

6:41Yeah. And the same people win every time. There's a great book by a guy called Fishkin. I think, is it Lewis Fishkin? Who's a UCLA legal professor who argues that the whole point of equality of opportunity leads to bottlenecks, because you need then to determine who deserves the opportunity. And in order to do that fairly, you have to apply the same criteria to everybody, and only some people are good at that one thing. Yeah. And Fishkin argues very convincingly, I think, that to remove these kind of bottlenecks, the book is called Bottlenecks, to remove these bottlenecks, what you need to aim for is plurality of opportunity, diversity of opportunity.

7:22So what you need is a society where lots of people have an opportunity to be successful in lots of different ways, in lots of different moments in their life. Yeah. And what we've created is an opportunity for some very specific people to be disproportionately successful at one particular skill, at one particular moment of their life. Yeah. And it's not a great way to create actually either a fair or a diverse, pluralistic and economically wealthy society. Because you're basically overemphasising those metrics which you happen to have arbitrarily chosen to be the way in which you discriminate between a first class degree and a 2.2.

8:07And how do you spot talent? What are the sort of markers that you've developed over the years for spotting it? Could you go out and about a lot as well? One thing I'd make as an optimistic point, which is there's an awful lot of kind of dissing on Gen Z, but my general impression of the young is that they are overwhelmingly sort of more sophisticated and informed in most respects than my own generation would have been. And it occurs to me, of course, that one of the things, one of the unsung benefits of the internet is that it's removed or massively reduced what you might call geographic inequality and access to information.

8:52Yeah. So I was reading someone who went to a university from a deprived background, OK? I think it was about 15, 20 years ago, and they were offered hummus, and they didn't know what it was, OK? By the way, I totally sympathise. I mean, I'm old enough. My aunt, very sophisticated architect, towards the end of life, had never eaten a bagel. and wasn't entirely familiar with the concept. And if you just grew up in a more provincial milieu, you were denied access to a whole level of stimulus that was available to people who lived in, say, London or Manchester. Yeah. And that... I mean... The extent to which digital technology has reduced what you might call regional inequality in terms of opportunity to access information and stimulus and so forth is, I think, one of the big unsung contributions of the last 20 or 30 years.

9:46But in picking talent from young people, ultimately, we've got to remember that everything you do is a kind of proxy, that actually judging people at their real-world performance at a task is vastly more reliable than using kind of weird proxy measures like degree class. Now, obviously, there are areas where, you know, in certain areas of maths or finance or insurance, someone's mathematical ability is a pretty useful indicator. But to what extent a good humanities degree is an indicator of your ability to work in advertising is not entirely clear. I would look for someone who was good at something else.

10:25In other words, they've got a bit of a hinterland. Someone with a weird, curious obsession, whether it's steam, traction engines. David Ogilvie described a good copywriter as being characterised by being an extensive browser are in all kinds of fields. Yeah. So I emphatically look for curiosity. I'd look for someone who had a... either a hinterland or what you might call a, you know, um, you know, a second or third area of interest. There's a lovely story in advertising of someone who was hired as an art director. I think this was back in the 70s or early 80s. And they were an art director, but they turned up for a job interview and they'd already finished the Times Crossword.

11:07Yeah. Now, what that is, I have to confess, that would kind of impress me automatically. An interest in cryptic crosswords, an interest in true-life crime, serial killers, if they're willing to countenance the fact that Lucy Letby might be innocent, etc. Those kind of things. In other words, that they deploy their intellect not purely to the extent that it's immediately and commercially necessary. Yes. That would be one of the criteria. Apparently it's become quite a popular question now in America. higher echelon places to ask which conspiracy theories people believe in. Right, speaking of conspiracy theories, electrical vehicles are stacked with them.

11:48They run out of range, they're hard to charge, they're expensive to charge. Turns out, not true. I've had my Octopus Energy EV for six weeks now, I've not run out of power once, and it's been surprisingly cheap to charge. In fact, it slightly blew my mind the other day, because it was so windy and sunny, they were actually paying me to charge the car. So if you want to check out any of the deals with Octopus, then just email me at jimmy at octopus dot energy and we can discuss it. Right, back to Rory. Apparently it's become quite a popular question now in America, higher echelon places, to ask which conspiracy theories people believe in.

12:27Like, all have the most credibility. There's another question, which is, what is the belief you hold, or at least hold to be possible, which would be treated as outrageous or unusual? Yeah. So, in other words, someone who believes every conspiracy theory probably isn't a brilliant employee, OK? Because, you know, they would have a level of paranoia which would make it extremely difficult for you to cooperate with them. But equally, I'm also sceptical about someone who believes no conspiracy theory at all. Yeah. There's an Australian. I don't think he's right, but it always strikes me as interesting that the Kennedy assassination was that actually, in response to Oswald's first shot, someone in one of the following cars picked up a gun and accidentally shot Kennedy in the back of the head.

13:14Yeah. And therefore, this was not a conspiracy but a cover-up. Yeah. Okay. And that strikes me as a very, very interesting theory because it always strikes me that conspiracies are much, much rarer than cover-ups. Yes. Conspiracies require prior cooperation operation between a group of people all of whom stay mum both before and after the event yeah with in some cases an incentive to actually tell the truth yes okay a cover-up is a very very plausible theory because everybody has a has an incentive to cover up their own incompetence in an institutional setting particularly yeah that's true i mean in politics it's often talks about it's probably cock-up rather than conspiracy but actually cover-up is a good third element of it because that's cover-up yeah it's quite a common phenomenon and of course because people are blame-averse yeah okay um and reputationally you know very vulnerable in politics as well in that you know one one weird cock-up can actually haunt you for ridiculous things like you might easily reasonably argue that actually politicians who don't cock up aren't taking enough risks yeah Yeah, yeah, quite.

14:21I think that's true. But I think you're probably seeing this with Ferraro's Boris Trump phenomenon, right? I mean, those guys have made so many mistakes. But there is the feeling that something big might happen, OK? If you were choosing someone as a boss and you thought your company was slightly heading down the tubes, OK, you would probably be more optimistic to hear that Trump had been appointed the new CEO than Kamala simply because if you believed that desperate measures were required, it was more likely that he'd do something fundamentally eccentric and left field than the managerialist. Yeah, managed to come out.

15:00And there's a brilliant, by the way, a podcast. It's a philosophy podcast, fairly recent, featuring Paul Bloom, the professor of psychology at Yale, who gives about five or six actually rational reasons why sometimes doing totally irrational or deviant things may make sense and why, in some ways, we're evolutionarily conditioned occasionally to bet the farm on things, to roll the dice, to do things which are wholly unexpected. Yeah. One of the reasons being, by the way, simply that if you're in slow decline, it's likely that you may be trapped in what complexity theorists would call a local maximum.

15:42And the only way to actually get uphill is to go downhill first. Yeah. So doing something that's actually, you know, Jaguar, if you like, okay, doing something which seems incredibly left field, if the alternative is being trapped in a declining market, okay, is not an irrational thing to do. Yeah. It may seem what you might call, the rationality it's using isn't deduction or induction. It's more like something like a ductive inference, which is an imaginative leap. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's an uncertain imaginative leap, but it's actually probably better than doing the rational thing if the rational thing merely traps you into a kind of spiral of slow decline.

16:24What's the worst part of your job? Oh, the diary management. The whole... Because I've got myself in an annoying situation where I have a busy diary, but I can't cancel anything and I can't be late for something because my presence is more and more material. and that's the bit that gets really tedious, to be honest. And it's odd, actually. The job itself is fundamentally enjoyable. It's the logistics around the job that are tiresome. What was the first pitch? I quite enjoyed lockdown. I'm honestly honest with you, because you got out of bed, you put a cardigan on over your pyjamas and you clicked join meeting.

17:05This morning, our meeting required me to get dressed, perform a load of ablutions, travel to a station, buy a rail ticket, buy a parking ticket, catch a train, change trains at London Bridge, OK? Yeah. The amount of... I find... I'm basically slightly dyspraxic, I think. And so I find the actual... What's notionally the hard part of the job fundamentally interesting and what you might call the logistical hassle around that job that's necessary in order to perform it just by appearing in an office somewhere. I find that actually a pain in the arse. What are the advantages of being slightly dyspraxic, though?

17:44There's probably some sort of compensatory mechanism. I joke occasionally that the great thing about advertising is it's one of the very few ways where you can monetise ADHD. And so having a little bit of that... Yeah. I do worry about the medicalisation of ADHD because at some level, are you not treating creativity as if it's a disorder? Yeah. Yeah, you know, it depends what you're required to do. You know, someone with ADHD who's required to work in air traffic control I'd rather hope they were faintly medicated. But there's a wonderful woman whose name I've briefly forgotten who's a professor at, I think, King's College London, who makes the argument that a lot of these neurotypical qualities are, in evolutionary terms, necessary.

18:32That a group that contains people who are non-neurotypical has significant advantages in things like collective decision-making and action that an entirely homogeneous neurotypical group wouldn't have. And I think that's an entirely plausible theory, actually. It's why I also think that comedy is valuable. That comedy is another way of looking at things, and it's complementary to what you might call the mainstream, serious way of looking at things. and that very change in context, the very change in outlook, has a value in and of itself. And then comedians could make quite good... I think, OK, here's Jimmy Carr's solution to American gun law.

19:18The general solution is you ban guns or you don't ban guns. Jimmy Carr's solution, which is very interesting, because I think it's informed by evolutionary psychology, is in order to own a gun, you've got to be a member of a gun club, and the members of any gun club of 100 people or so are held collectively responsible for the behaviour of their membership. Now, if you think about that, that's really rather clever, OK? Because everybody... It's very much an insight actually taken from micro-lending, you know, the whole business of... He's not actually the Prime Minister of Bangladesh. Yeah. Yeah.

19:56OK, your noose, isn't it? Which is that if you lend a group of people money and they're jointly and severally liable for repaying the loan, the reliability of the repayment is very, very high because the group is its own internal police force. Yeah, completely. And so that business of devolving responsibility along with the devolution of power at a scale appropriate to the maintenance of safety is a really important insight which government could probably replicate in lots of different ways. What if you made property development work that way? You said, OK, here are the 100 households that are going to be affected if we give planning permission, OK, to build on this field.

20:36let's see what happens if we devolve power to the same people who are effectively responsible what what would be a likely kind of uh acceptable compromise which is usually we get a waitrose okay right okay but okay but nonetheless okay that's an interesting finding yeah in other words i'm a big fan of these citizens assemblies not that i'm not sure they should actually enact things but as a vastly better form of market research one of the problems of politics and it's worth noting that politics nick this from the ad industry to an extent is the focus group is not a very good way of determining what people can be persuaded to do believe think yeah okay it's a very good way of getting a knee-jerk response to a soundbite and consequently politics that's optimised around the focus group is not going to be optimised around what you might call deep problem solving and new forms of consensus.

21:39It's going to be optimised for snappy little phrases which have a disproportionate effect. Now, that was probably perfectly appropriate if you were researching an ad in the soap powder category. That's relevant information. How does someone making a very snap decision respond to a very small amount of information? And how does the way you couch that information affect their response? It's still worth doing in politics, OK? Because we've all seen things in politics where bad branding has killed a good idea. The dementia tax, which was obviously... That was a journalist who called it the dementia tax for quite peculiar and specific reasons, OK?

22:18But the dementia tax was actually an attempt to solve the social care problem, which was not altogether unintelligent. If you want the worst case of branding ever in world history, which has had deleterious consequences, nuclear power. It's probably, using the word nuclear to describe nuclear power generation, probably was one of the most catastrophic, unintentional cases of bad branding you could possibly imagine. Yeah, no, I agree with you. That's a really good point. What was the first pitch you worked on here at Ogilvy? the very first one was i think a pitch for british airways for their loyalty program in about

23:031989 i was the account person then as a creative person i think it was a pitch for sainsbury's for a loyalty program no holiday i must have done been involved in some before that um but i started in direct marketing which is a fantastic place to start because you actually get quantifiable results in response to your messaging. Yeah. And as a consequence, you learn much more rapidly than other people learn that what seems to be ostensibly persuasive in terms of argumentation may not change behavior very much, whereas what seems surprisingly oblique can have an enormous emotional effect, which then changes behavior a great deal.

23:47So again, it teaches you that difference between winning an argument and solving a problem. What was one of the most underrated marketing campaigns of all time? The one I always choose is the London Overground. I don't know why they've divided it into seven lines and given them weird names. Yeah. That strikes me as just... I'm not objecting to the politics behind it. Yeah. Although, notice, they're all positive images of women. I think you should have a bit of diversity and have, like, the Rose West line or the Eileen Wuornos line to prove that women aren't actually flawless, OK? You know, I think we should, you know, we should be conscious of this.

24:23But... No, I'll part back. OK. But what was genius about the Overground is it already existed. More people use the Overground in a day than use the Elizabeth line. And yet the Elizabeth line cost£20 billion and the Overground cost£200 million, which means it's 1 % of the cost. The reason is all the infrastructure existed, no-one was using it. And the reason they didn't use it is that Londoners use the tube map as their kind of proxy map of London. And no Londoner, except for South Londoners, considers above ground surface rail to be a solution to any London travel problem. They basically think of railways as places you get to Manchester on, OK?

25:07Therefore, all they did with the overground, they spent 200 million improving the lighting, the rolling stock, increasing the frequency, increasing disabled access, extending a few platforms. and building about five miles of additional track. The marketing genius was they pretended it was a tube line. They called it the overground, they made it orange and they added it to the tube map, okay? And the point I'm making there is that what was genius about that is on the first day it appeared on the tube map, usage went up like 400%. For the first time ever, it wasn't that the infrastructure had changed, it was our ability cognitively to understand the role that infrastructure might play in our lives, which was transformed basically using ink and pixels far more than it used engineering.

25:57Now, when you go to Transport for London and you have a problem, their reaction, their knee-jerk reaction will be, we need to change the infrastructure. And my view is, no, no, no, you may just need to change the informational presentation. If too many people are using the central line and not enough people are using the circle line in the summer, OK? Very simple. You just put circle line brackets air-conditioned wherever the circle line intertwines with the central line, OK? And you'll get 10 % of people to change their journey. Yeah. OK? And you should always... The thing that annoys me with politics is it starts with law, which is compulsion.

26:41Then if the lawyers fail, it moves to economics, which is bribery, and then only if those two fail does it consider persuasion. Yeah. Now, obviously, all three things have a part to play in changing behaviour and improving society, but shouldn't you approach things the opposite way round? Let's see what we can persuade people to do. Then if the persuasion fails, we'll try incentives, and if the incentives fail, then only then should we resort to compulsion. But because government's dominated by the legal mindset, you need more Steve Norris and you need more Grant Shapps. You need a few people who've been photocopier salesmen for 15 years.

27:17That's who you need in politics. Because it's dominated by the legalistic mindset, it automatically accords greater status to legal solutions than solutions that... Now, I was at the Adam Smith Institute last night giving a lecture. At the Adam Smith Institute, pretty hardcore, libertarian, free-market guys, although with a healthily strong Austrian and Georgist bent, I might add. OK? But one of the things they said is, even at their most libertarian, the Adam Smith Society never opposed labelling. They didn't oppose calorific labelling. They didn't oppose labelling of energy efficiency on domestic appliances, because they go, you're free to ignore that information if you want to.

28:00Yeah. But on the other hand, it makes salient at the point of purchase something the consumer may not find easy to compare and therefore leads to better informed consumption, which, in the viewpoint of the great Adam Smith, would therefore improve overall human flourishing. Yeah. OK, so they're not opposed to labelling. Now, interestingly, the labelling actually worked in two ways, by the way. So when you had tumble dryers, you know, A, B, B +, whatever it might be, consumers then suddenly factored in energy efficiency at the point of purchase, which was previously something that got dwarfed by how attractive the interface was or whether it matched the colour of the kitchen.

28:42But the secondary effect was that big retailers like John Lewis and Curry's said to the manufacturers, OK, in 12 months' time, everything you send us had better be a B or above because we're not going to sell anything below a B because it makes us look crap. Yeah. So it actually worked at two levels. You know, you might say, if you're at McDonald's, the way calorific labelling works is... Do you know what the most calorific thing at McDonald's is? by the way it's not a burger it's probably a double double chocolate muffin okay now if you're a mcdonald's you may say actually the way this works isn't the consumer not choosing a double chocolate muffin because they've been to mcdonald's they're probably in the mind for a bit of a treat but it might well be mcdonald's going okay on the calorie board that muffin looks ridiculous we need to reformulate you've managed to get your daughters to drink pints rather than wine I'm happy for them to drink half pints if they wish.

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29:37Half pints. But one of them, actually, both of them drink Guinness. One of them is a very loyal Guinness drinker, and it's my greatest achievement as a parent, that they drink beer. And I've got three daughters, all under five. Well, we've just got early. There's alcohol-free Guinness now, OK? It's never too early. Well, I just, yeah, I think I'm going to have so many big bar bills. But I just didn't want to be buying... There are certain drinks that I just find irritating, rosé and prosecco yeah i just every time you're asked for one there's a little bit of your brain which is oh for fuck's sake you know and so the fact that both both my daughters are beer drinkers and and especially guinness drinkers is a point of pride for me as a father because i don't have to do that kind of i mean they will drink rosé annoyingly um but nonetheless the fact that they're you know they're quite large by the way uh you know a small discursion on the sudden surge which I think is an interesting match of marketing and technology, the sudden explosion in alcohol-free beers, is fascinating.

30:42I was on a podcast called Cleaning Up with Mike Lieber a few weeks ago, and he made the brilliant point, which is that the profusion of acceptable non-alcoholic drinks in pubs is the kind of thing which government would have fantasized about from a public health perspective and a motoring safety perspective, okay? and yet it seems to have happened entirely spontaneously without any government encouragement or intervention, unless you maybe include the tax system, which makes them very lucrative. Yeah. OK. But what was interesting, talking to the people at Lucky Saint, they think that a large part of the reason for the success was that everybody before Lucky Saint had sold alcohol-free beer as, wow, it's alcohol-free and it's beer.

31:27And they said, this is a great beer, and by the way, it's got no alcohol. Yeah, yeah. And they thought that actually the relative framing of how they framed the alcohol-freeness of that beer was decisive in their success. And that's what they were doing. Quite often, you have... I doubt it, the alcohol-free beer is better. I mean, Guinness Zero is indistinguishable, I would argue, from mainstream Guinness. And I would argue psychologically delivers some of the conviviality of beer drinking simply... Because there's a weird phenomenon among alcoholics, which is called dry drunk, isn't it? Yeah.

32:02That effectively, if you give alcoholics a drink they think is alcoholic, which isn't, they will basically still act drunk. And I think drinking alcohol-free Guinness, I'm getting, by mental association, by my brain's predictive mechanism, I'm getting some of the conviviality without the incapacity. Yeah. Which I think is actually a psychological mind trick, which is really interesting. When did you first become really interested in behavioural science? Like, when was that? Because it is an industry that's become much bigger in the 21st century than before. Well, the epiphany was working in direct marketing.

32:38Actually, it was probably before that. My father ran a small business. The great thing about growing up in a small business, whether it's a shop or a cafe or a restaurant, if you've got a family business, it's like a free MBA. Yeah. Okay? And so you automatically start to notice. And the entrepreneurial mindset is... The bureaucratic mindset hates outliers and surprising information because it messes with their mental model. And they react to counter... What you might call counterintuitive information with hostility, just as the original behavioural economists were shunned by the mainstream economists because it was viewed to be messing with the neatness of their own artificial model.

33:21the entrepreneurial mindset is absolutely opposite if it notices anything weird it looks for an arbitrage opportunity yeah okay and the governmental bureaucratic mindset is i must maintain consistency so that i can avoid blame for my decisions by preserving fidelity to the model which i use to justify my own activities to create a spurious veneer of rationality around everything i do with the ultimate aim of avoiding blame and responsibility. Yeah. The entrepreneurial mindset is what the fuck's going on there? Hold on, if I know this and nobody else does, there's a market opportunity here. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

34:02Fundamentally, they're two absolutely opposing mindsets in the way... The detective mindset is, well, that was weird. Someone drove a van through, you know, past the house three times in the same evening. There might be an innocent explanation, but let's have a little bit of a looky-loo, okay? The legalistic mindset is that is irrelevant information because it has no evidential value, okay? Right? And so this is where I go cops in many ways are much cleverer than lawyers in their approach to information. Yes. And so, by the way, I mean, scientists, if you think about it, nearly all significant scientific breakthroughs don't start with a proof.

34:41They start with an observation. You know, Darwin with Finch's beans. Yeah, yeah. Newton with an apple, Fleming with penicillin and the funny little thing, Viagra with the strange behavior of the people on the trial. Yeah, yeah. Okay? All of those things started with a freak, in many ways, to the bureaucratic mind, annoying piece of discrepancy. And the creative act was not a spontaneous creative act. It was having the insight to see the possible implications and possible explanation for this unusual finding. Are there any podcasts that you have not appeared on that you would like to? You've done so many.

35:28Yeah, I mean, a lot of that was during lockdown where my argument was, well, there's nothing else to do. And also, if you can talk to even an audience of 100, OK, it's still a big network effect. And if you have an audience of... We don't think like this, but a podcast audience of 50 ,000, that's a goddamn stadium. Yeah. Okay? You know, 80 ,000, that's the Melbourne cricket ground. Yeah. That's Taylor Swift numbers, okay? No, I don't have the album sales or, indeed, the ticket prices or the price elasticity. But nonetheless, I think we tend to... We got so obsessed with broadcast TV... Yeah. ..that we tended to actually think, oh, it's only 20 ,000.

36:09That's an enormous multiplier. I mean, the largest physical event I've probably spoken to is 2 ,000 people. So an online audience of 20 ,000 is immense. And my weird street fame, where people come up to me and demand selfies all the time, actually is kind of proof that 100 ,000 people is a lot of people. Yeah. I suppose...

36:35The rest is politics would be fun, because I find both the hosts mildly annoying. and i would like to rile them okay but they're you know they're overconfident kind of remainery harris supporting kind of um default mode um and i you know i i do find both of them actually slightly irritating in that it is that business of you know making confident pronouncements yeah without actually considering considering the opposite well i would love to hear you on that Okay. I mean, by the way, I have a very unusual opinion on Brexit, which is that I voted Remais. I have contents to vote Remais. I don't think it was that important.

37:17I genuinely still don't. I mean, it inconveniences me personally less than roadworks on the A25. Yeah. Okay. Now, this is genuinely true, okay? Now, my only point is, if it really was that dire, first of all, why weren't the people protesting business people? Yeah. But they were teachers, okay? It was an identity problem. No one... The economic problem was a total post... In other words, the whole economic question was called into service, OK, by people who weren't happy to make the emotional case of loss of identity. But why have these cultural issues and identity issues become so much more prevalent in our politics?

37:58Ten years ago, they weren't really... They were at, well, 15 years ago. Well, you have, if you think about it, a kind of middle-class, which doesn't really come much into contact with people who don't think like that. And, of course, you could argue that social media merely exacerbates the bubbles that already existed in the physical world.

38:21You could... I mean, we are essentially trying... My argument is there's a kind of very weird attempt to kind of eradicate tribalism in one form, unless it fits a definition that suits some sort of Marxist academic theory about class, gender, race or sexuality. OK. And we are just a bit tribal. Yeah. It's inevitable. I'll tell you an extraordinary story. So my daughter does a DNA test and it turns out that she's got something like 2 % to 3 % of West African DNA, which almost certainly comes from me. OK. And the reason is not because there were a lot of Ghanaians in the north of Scotland, hence the name Sutherland.

39:07It was because there were quite a lot of Sutherlands in Ghana, and it's a reverse correlation. In fact, the country in the world after Scotland, maybe Canada, where Sutherland is the most common name, is actually Ghana. Right. Where I'm sure the Sutherland family were performing missionary work. Let's not ask, OK? Let's just not go there. But what was quite funny is that after discovering, you know, that my DNA is partly West African. My daughter was on the phone to one of her breasts. OK, I don't even discover this now before. And she said to her friend, and according to my DNA survey, which showed we were related to a lot of people in Inverness and Wales and et cetera, which all made sense.

39:46But apart from this West African component, which I think is reverse correlation, my daughter's on the phone to her friend, and she goes, and according to my DNA report, I'm 3 % North African. And I shouted to her, we're not fucking North African, we're West African. OK, no, this was an identity I'd only been made dimly aware of two hours before. But the idea that my affinity with the Ashanti of Ghana or the Eboo was now being confused with, you know, Algerians and Moroccans, suddenly it was an instinctive reaction that I was making this repel. It was, I admit, the most absurd reaction. I looked at myself going, why the hell did you react like that?

40:27Now, the point about tribalism is not that you're... Or even nationalism is not that you deny it away, OK? You find manageable, amusing and beneficial outlets for it. Yeah. And you harness it. One of the most important components to managing human difference is almost certainly comedy and humour. There's a fascinating phenomenon, which is a comedian called Andrew Schultz. Yeah. Who, if you presented his textual content to an audience of American academics. They demand that he was cancelled and prevented. However, his audiences are entirely multi-ethnic and entirely participate in the abuse, OK, which is equal opportunities abuse, OK?

41:12In other words, everybody gets it, OK? Now, what fascinated me about that is it's exactly the answer which is, that I always make about psychology, which is in psychology, unlike physics, the opposite of a good idea can be another good idea. Yeah. And the opposite of hiding something is to make fun of it, to make light of it. And, you know, you might argue that anybody who has... is English but has a French friend. Yeah. Okay? Um, controversial, I know, okay. But they've reached this accommodation already. They both take the piss out of each other slightly, but actually that contributes to, rather than diminishes, the affection you feel for each other.

41:52Okay? And the idea that you pretended away is actually not really psychologically feasible. Yeah. And, you know, the solution to a lot of these things is to have people aware of things but not give a shit about it. Yeah. OK. You know, um, you know, I don't think there's going to be a day where, you know, if you're Welsh, there aren't going to be the odd sheep comments. But what the Welsh have done there, if you look at a rugby international, is they only insults and take inflatable sheep and wave them around in the crowd, okay? In Wisconsin, people wear enormous wedges of cheese on their heads because they're stereotyped as cheeseheads, so they're fans of the Milwaukee Brewers or whatever it is, or, you know, own the insult.

42:36Yeah. There are lots and lots of evolved psychological hacks which exist in the human to actually solve these problems or at least to massively mitigate. OK? And what you might call the direct legalistic logical approach, which we've often seen recently, is perfectly well-intentioned. In a logical world, it should actually work quite well, but empirically, we have to acknowledge that it might actually be counterproductive. As a final... So, if you're an empiricist, your quality of reasoning is subordinate to your quality of outcome. Yeah. OK. What we've created is a world where the outcome, you're not so much judged on the quality of your outcome, on the consequences, but on the rigour of the reasoning which led you to that action.

43:29Yeah. And that's what happens in a risk-averse or bureaucratic institution. It doesn't really matter what happens so long as my sequential logical flow that justifies my actions is easily defensible. Yeah. And whether it doesn't work or not is really your concern. Now, the great thing about business is you've got a feedback mechanism, which is the profit. Yeah. OK. You can have the best idea in the world in business, but if you don't sell it, you're out of the gene pool. OK. You can have an utterly stupid idea in business, which makes no goddamn sense at all. Red Bull. OK. OK. OK. You can have an absolutely dumb idea in business, but if somehow the public picks up on it, the quality of your reasoning is irrelevant to your ultimate success.

44:16So free market things are market tested by the end user who is an accurate evaluator of value. The bureaucratic system delivers services according to their own measure of value which is not generally what the consumer values. It's simply something that's easy to measure or defend. The way that this podcast actually makes money is that we make podcasts for businesses. And we are trying to sort of, this part of the, we're encouraging businesses to be more adventurous with it, etc. We have built... The problem you have is businesses now have a very risk-averse person called the press officer. Yes.

44:53Who is entirely focused on downside risk minimisation. Yeah. And you reach the supreme achievement as a press officer if you keep everybody out of the press altogether. With the consequence that, if you think about it, If Newsnight has a question about or the Today programme needs to interview someone about business, they generally can't get hold of a business person because the press office is having connections and it takes three days to get approval and legal, I think, as a consequence of which the whole world of business, which is, you know, the greater part of the British economy, is massively underrepresented in news media, whereas academics, who are free to pitch up any time they like and probably aren't that busy to begin with, OK?

45:37They dominate the conversation because they can, you know, some bloody economist or academic, then pitch up and sound off entirely freely, whereas the corporate reputational paranoia has caused the business interest to be fundamentally underrepresented. But this is why I think them creating their own channels will give them the security of it. I think that's why it's going to be a big thing. There are 20 ,000 people who could have done what I did. the truth of the matter is they probably weren't allowed to. Yeah, yeah, exactly. If I'm being honest about it, which is, you know, let's just, you know, business is a highly creative act, okay?

46:13Contrary to what everybody likes to think, most of the effort in business is pretending it's deterministic and boring when the reality is that it's probabilistic and exciting and creative. I know, but that's, yeah, I mean, that's what I want to do with the podcast is sort of shine light on all these different business stories. And the start of every business... When I say that the great thing about capitalism is it produces white wall tires, fins on cars, frozen parathas, by the way, which I'm going to plug. Yeah, yeah. Okay. One of the greatest products of the last 10 years. Go to the freezer aisle, folks, and I'll find the brand.

46:47I think it's called something like Shawa, is it? You would show me. I will find it on my Android phone. I will go and find this. And you just, okay, you can keep it in the freezer. Don't let it defrost. It's called Shana is the brand. It's one of the most miraculous food products you'll ever have because within three minutes, frying in a pan from frozen, and don't let it defrost, it's better if you put it straight from the freezer into the pan, you'll have something which is as good a paratha as you've got in a Michelin-starred Indian restaurant. Now, you know, that's what happens at the point, the frozen paratha and the white-walled tyres and Red Bull, that it can produce things that, if you think about it, the Soviet Union was completely wrong-footed by the popularity of denim.

47:29OK? OK? Yeah. that's what's magnificent about it the fact that it's fucking bonkers and yet it's been hijacked by all these accountants and finance people who are desperately pretending that it conforms to narrow neoliberal economic theories and everything makes perfect sense I wouldn't want to work in business if it were like that yeah yeah quite why would you want to do that? well so we've built it I want to get some live marketing advice because as all companies we could do with more sales etc so we have built a podcast calculator on this which as a podcast champion you might be interested so basically you put in all these different parameters with podcasts like how many episodes do you want it filmed i mean all podcasts are filled now but all these different things premium definitely yeah like trailer intros you notice i press premium without even knowing what it meant Yeah.

48:24You see that? I just chose the premium intro. It's exactly like, you know, there are loads of things, by the way, which nobody knows what they mean, OK? Sourdough, nobody's got a clue what it means. It just means posh bread, OK? Organic, nobody knew what it meant. It just meant posh food, OK? Anyway, sorry. Yeah, well, you are going to have a premium intro. How many social video clips for episode 10? Fuck that. Do you need a host for the show? Yeah. No, I'll be my own host. Yeah, yeah. I'm outsourcing. do I need help with publishing oh yeah always do you need artwork ah we can probably provide our own we should be able to my podcast series would cost£64 ,000 plus VAT so that's the amount of sponsorship I need in order for it to be economically desirable that is the first way of looking at it yeah that's actually a really helpful app what's the app called so I can plug it it's Boxlight on our it's our company that we've got it make b2b things absolutely fantastic by the way i mean total total um kudos for being a b2b entity yeah the thing you're going to realize okay and what we've got to get business to realize is that big ideas require big behavioral change behavioral change is difficult therefore just as small behaviors respond to advertising yeah big behaviors require it and my joke i'd always make to greg jackson of octopus who i absolutely venerate okay i think he's absolutely extraordinary man and if If this were America, businesses like Ocado, businesses like Octopus Energy, really innovative companies like that would be absolutely idolised.

50:00Greg would be stocked in the street. Wise, for example, TransferWise, Starling. Those people would be rock stars with their own trailer and entourage. But in Britain, we're almost too egalitarian in terms of our willingness to get excited about homegrown, brilliant ideas. But I'd still say to Greg, if you'd called Octopus greenecotech.com and you hadn't had a big pink Octopus's logo, you'd still have 20 ,000 customers. Yeah. OK? So let's not forget that this door requires two keys to unlock. It's a bit like those nuclear missiles where you need two separate people to turn a key at the same time.

50:43Yeah. In the bunker, OK? You need to unlock the technological door. In other words, the technology has to deliver and be meaningful and offer significant benefits. But if you don't unlock the marketing door, which is people can appreciate those benefits and feel comfortable about paying for them and changing their behaviour in consequence, then you still haven't got a great idea. You've got an invention, but you haven't got an innovation. What do you think it is about the Octopus brand that is so strong? The Octopus? Yeah. It's pink. Why does it work? OK, this is driving a bunch of bloody energy scientists completely batshit crazy, isn't it?

51:21Yeah, I know you're doing some really clever stuff with the Kraken software and the whole idea of distributed pricing is great. But actually, the fun nature of the thing means that the gamification of energy, when Octopus comes out with something really interesting, OK, our attitude is, oh, that's cute, rather than, what the hell are they doing now? Yeah, yeah. It fundamentally changes the... The big car. My kids love it, though. They play with it. Have you bought the plushie? Yeah. Yeah, I bought the plushie as well. I've got actually a big pink, you know, furry octopus that sits... My wife's not totally keen.

51:53She's a bit farrow and bald. She's English. But they've got a big pink octopus in the middle of the table. And... But it's an... You can get a dog toy as well. You know that. And then on their shop, the Octo shop, there's also a really hot chilli sauce. What's it doing there? No, no logic at all. But that fact that actually we are approaching a category which was tedious, okay, and we're innovating in the spirit of optimism and fun. Yeah. By the way, we also ought to give a big shout out to their approach to customer service. Yes. Which is entirely different to the customer service approach. Because, by the way, I come from advertising, but I would happily say to two thirds of our clients, can you actually cancel a few of those ads and invest for more people in your call center, please?

52:41Yeah, yeah. Because it's very difficult. All businesses are over-invested in acquisition and under-invested in customer retention because the former is easier to quantify than the latter. Very hard to prove what difference a really good call centre person makes. My contention is there are organisations where my propensity to repurchase goes up by a factor of four because of a single really good call centre experience. And nearly all businesses are under-invested in this. And then you see the Financial Times writing an article which says, how did customer service get so bad? Well, I might say to the Financial Times, if you actually acknowledge the importance of marketing occasionally, which you don't, and actually admitted that there might be something important about a business other than its quarterly financial results, then maybe business wouldn't be in this shit place to begin with.

53:30So physician, heal thyself, if I may say so. But Octopus Energy. That's horrific in the UK. Okay. The Financial Times pays no attention to marketing. the economist had a marketing um uh correspondent who hated marketing because all economists hate marketing because all their economic models assume perfect information yeah and therefore they operate in a world in which marketing wouldn't be necessary so they see it as a poisonous distortion of consumer preference you see whereas of course um you can't change behavior without it yeah yeah um i i always but i think part of it with octopus energy and the octopus brand more broadly is is they do have personality and they do try and do things differently whereas you know a lot of the other energy companies like you there is no differentiation between them differentiation no no and actually ovo we ought to credit i mean yes yeah similarly seems to be innovative um uh octopus is an extraordinary potential off um export story because of course it's a software company now a little like a cardo actually part of the reason they run the shop is so that the actual what they learn by doing the thing for real then becomes effectively applicable in other markets and with other with other retailers so it's just you know it's part software play part retailer who if people want to go and listen to more rory sutherland content at the end of this who whose podcast did you enjoy appearing on the most which sticks in the mind um because you do do a lot i actually enjoy all i'm chris williamson i'm always very happy yeah yeah very very happy to do yours by the way because the whole b2b arena okay b2b marketing yeah can be just as creative as consumer marketing it receives less attention not because it's less effective but perhaps because historically ad agencies judge the importance of a client by the size of its media spend.

55:27I work in Ogilvy Consulting precisely because I don't care what the media spend is. I simply care about the size of the opportunity and that you have some money to spend. But I'm not doing this entirely philanthropically, am I not? But nonetheless, one of the areas which strikes me as enormously important, because B2B is 50 % of the British economy. Yeah. And yet it's talked about inordinately less. What's a good example of a B2B business? marketing campaign you've seen? There's a company called Backhouse Jones which ensures effectively vehicle operators so it might be bus companies, haulage companies etc and the insurance they provide is they provide all your legal affairs and I think increasingly your HR function okay as a back office and rather than pricing the way most lawyers do which is we're free until you're in the shit, at which point we charge you a bloody fortune.

56:26They have a very simple pricing model, which is to cover all your legal needs, you pay, I think it's 20p, it might have gone up now, 25p per vehicle per day. Notice they don't express that annually. They express it in an amount that sounds like a rounding error to anybody who's just bought some massive Foden vehicle for 250 grand, OK? And to deal with all the possible legal ramifications of the ownership of that vehicle, 20p per vehicle per day. And the guy, Mr Jones, a fellow Welshman, I imagine, although he's actually Mancunian, but, you know, never goes away. When he markets, when he speaks at transport conferences, he goes and puts sort of 25p underneath everybody's chair.

57:09And he presents their proposition, and he says, and if you look under your chair, you'll see I've paid for the first day for you. So it's a brilliant example. Now, price framing, okay, A lot of these psychological things, which we've kind of discovered through working in consumer marketing, can be not transplanted, but translated into B2B. Yeah. So let me give you an example. I'm always horrified when I see a B2B company offer a price reduction. Okay? And my argument is don't reduce the price, offer a rebate. Now, that would be true if you're ASOS, right? If you give people£5 back when they buy something, they're going to buy something else.

57:47Yeah. I always say, don't reduce your price. Give the finance director an annual rebate conditional on something or other to make it feel of high perceived value. A finance director would much prefer a rebate to a cost reduction. Why? Because it's money which he can put wherever he likes. He can go, oh dear, we're a bit behind on this little pot. Let's just take this rebate and move it. Because that's what they do, finance people, isn't it? They basically just move money. They don't actually create any value. They just move money around to make it look more impressive. now it's not i'm not gonna get my expenses signed off for the next five years now okay i'm teasing guys okay no no but what i'm saying is that a rebate will be much more attractive to a financed person yeah an annual rebate will be much more attractive so the same money has a different value depending on how you pay it yeah okay that would just be one example um what is how do you describe your actual job here at Ogilvy to a sort of 15 year old what I try and do here now is maintain particularly as we're paid by the hour in advertising um uh we have become a little bit over procurified in that the problem of payment by the hour coupled with a client procurement department is that the most valuable things you can do for clients as an advertising agency for the most part are probably things they didn't ask you to do.

59:13Yeah. OK. And that would also be true, I think, of legal firms and everybody else. Yeah, yeah. This business of payment by the hour is based on the presumption that ab initio, the procuring company, knows exactly what they want. OK? Very similar to the assumption in economics, by the way. OK? And it is simply the job for you to satisfy their initial specification. Nearly all processes are iterative, OK? and you decide what you want as a by-product of actually doing it. It's like going shopping, right? You go to TK Maxx, you don't go with a shopping list. You effectively, your preference function is amended by the knowledge of what's available, okay?

59:56And your utility function is continually updated according to your exploration of the market. And consequently, I think a lot of professional services firms, including management consultancies, ad agencies, by this dumb payment-by-the-hour thing, which is an appalling, stupid way to actually charge for what we do, we've become too linear. And my job, I think, is to basically continually provide the hinterland. And actually, it means being a bit of a pain in the arse, because part of that job, to a linear mindset, that means you're derailing things. You're throwing a spanner in the works. but actually as long as I can be, I can judge my moment.

1:00:39And by the way, derailing something at the beginning is much less annoying than derailing something at the end. Okay. You know, one of the worst things you can do on any creative project is start work straight away. Okay. There's a kind of messy preliminary phase where it is absolutely correct to dick around with the brief, not least to ask the question whether the objective of the brief is the right one even to begin with. Yeah. my example that you know if you give them the brief for high speed two to disney rather than to engineering firms they would have said i don't we're not interested in all these questions about time speed duration and capacity the question we want to ask is how do you make a train journey so bloody enjoyable that nobody wants to go by car right yeah i don't know how disneyfied the solution would be but that's a much much more interesting question because psychology allows you far more potential for breakthrough moments than engineering does.

1:01:34Ultimately, engineering is constrained by the rules of physics, which are annoyingly strict. You know, gravity, the fact that air resistance will increase exponentially with speed. All those things are fixed. If you start going into saying, let's operate by the rules of psychology, not the rules of physics, your actual opportunity to resolve a paradox or to escape a trade-off is much, much greater. You can make the train really, really slow, but make the journey fantastic. We had William Hague on the podcast a couple of weeks ago, not to name John, but one of the most interesting, terrifying...

1:02:09Actually, brilliant man who got everything right except timing. Yeah. But he thought... Literally, mind-bending thing he said was that the next phase of warfare will be cognitive warfare. And how... Well, it's already happening. Well, quite. Yeah. But, like, yeah, it just sort of... It was pretty terrifying. But, yeah, you're right. But although I don't think... I'm not sure he ever wanted to be Prime Minister in the end. I don't know. It's a very funny business, isn't it? I mean, the people I... Because we're weird in politics about ambition as well, because in politics you can say you're ambitious and you want a top Cabinet job.

1:02:49Everybody's fine with that. But as soon as you ask somebody if they want to be Prime Minister, if you ask one of these new Labour MPs... Well, Margaret Thatcher famously denied it, didn't she? Yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah. But it's just... It's a British problem about ambition that we have, I think. I think, I suppose... I mean, you could argue that the... I think it was the Hesseltine ambition that people always joke, sort of kiboshed him, that when he was at Oxford. Yeah. And there is that very strong thing of don't tempt fate. Yeah. So there's a company I dealt with, which is really funny, OK, which is actually a very brilliant company called Airporter, and I spoke to them.

1:03:30They collect your luggage from your home in the home counties and they basically check it in at Heathrow or Gatwick. It's flying on EasyJet, British Airways, a few other airlines. And actually, that's sometimes really, really useful because you can now take public transport to the airport. You get your luggage collected a few days beforehand. If you've got a really early flight, you basically can go straight through to departures. I've used it quite a few times. I had to ask the question. Have you ever lost a piece of luggage? No. They said, maybe you should tell people that. And they go, we're too frightened.

1:04:00It's tempting fate. You see what I mean? Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, that actually, you know, they've never had a single failure, which is pretty damn impressive, but it's something other... It's a bit like claiming to be a design classic, okay? Or using the phrase luxury. Other people can say it of you, but you can't say it of yourself. And so that would be similar. Should be Prime Minister. That's very effective marketing. would make a great prime minister, brilliant marketing. I want to be prime minister, terrible marketing. It's a bit like someone declaring themselves a car manufacturer, the Peugeot 205 design classic.

1:04:39Everybody else can say that. You can't. You can't say it. Yeah. And it's similar. You know, I am funny. Doesn't work. OK? Doesn't work. OK? You can either prove it or you can get other people to verify it, but you can't actually claim it of yourself. Yeah. Rory, thanks so much. It's been a brilliant combination of comedy, marketing, politics, technology, everything. Thanks so much. It's been great. Anytime. Absolutely delighted. Thanks ever so much.

1:05:21Thank you.

From the publisher

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Marketing is broken - and Rory Sutherland is here to fix it.

In this unfiltered episode of Jimmy’s Jobs of the Future, legendary ad man Rory Sutherland (Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, TED sensation) returns to dismantle everything you think you know about logic, branding, and business.

Rory dives deep into why rational thinking leads to bad marketing, how companies are ignoring the most powerful tools in psychology, and why irrationality is the ultimate competitive advantage.

Expect riffs on iPhones vs Androids, what government and business get wrong about people, and how comedy, curiosity, and weirdness are the superpowers of great thinkers.

Plus: Rory’s thoughts on neurodiversity, conspiracy theories, alcohol-free beer, tribalism, and why your business probably needs a podcast.

This isn’t just marketing - it’s how the world works.

👀 If you like Rory on Diary of a CEO or his TED talks, this might be his most honest interview yet.

00:00 Intro

02:20 Android vs iPhone

04:23 Why Aren’t There Old Women on TV?

08:26 The Truth About Gen-Z

12:28 How to Use ADHD to Win

19:00 Jimmy Carr & Gun Laws

24:00 Most Underrated Marketing Campaigns

39:30 The Rise of Alcohol-Free Beers

32:35 Entrepreneurs vs Politicians

35:28 Why is Rory on Every Podcast?

37:09 Brexit & Rory’s African Roots

40:56 Andrew Schultz

46:00 Why Capitalism is the Best

53:15 Rory vs The Financial Times

56:10 20p Lorry Insurance

01:02:18 Why Disney Should Run UK Trains

**********

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