Tony Blair | Classic Episode

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0:49So go build your dream team today with Indeed. Get a$75 Sponsored Job Credit at Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Welcome back to Jimmy's Jobs of the Future. Today we are revisiting a classic episode with Sir Tony Blair. It recently won Interview of the Year at the Political Podcast Awards and it feels more relevant today than ever before. It was recorded in December 2024, just after Donald Trump had won his second term as US President. This episode is brought to you by Octopus Energy. Tony, welcome to Jimmy's Jobs of the Future. Thank you very much, Jimmy. What is the job of a former prime minister?

1:35That's a question I've never been asked before. So you stumped me. I think it's whatever you decide you want to make it. But I think the strange thing is about politics, especially when you're in government, is you're obviously, you know, I sometimes say you start at your least capable and most popular and you end often in politics at your least popular but most capable. I think one of the things that you do is learn over time how to do the job better. And therefore, when you finish, it's strange if you don't make use of that experience. and you know I I often reflect now when I'm I'm seeing other former prime ministers I've worked with in my institute that you know they've that they can talk to leaders in a language the leaders understand because they've done the job and they've been there and you know you do learn a lot from doing it and it's it's one of it's one of the very few walks of life in which people can both come into a senior position without really any experience of having done it before and then leave it without people ever trying to learn from the experience they've then acquired.

2:51Yeah. And why did you write the book? And who is the audience in mind that you have for it? Well, the audience are people who are either in government or want to be in government. But in fact, I think the leadership skills are pretty much the same, whatever you're trying to do. So people who read it and who are running companies or even just community organizations, they get a certain amount from just the lessons of leadership that you can apply across the piece. But I wrote it because over time, not just in the work I did when I was prime minister, and that's a 10-year, more than 10-year stint, so that's a long time to be doing it.

3:33But also, you know, we work in roughly 45 countries now. So we've got relations with leaders all over the world. And what is interesting and the reason in the end I decided to put it all down in writing, but try and put it in a simple form, is that you realize the lessons are the same. In whatever, even though countries offer different enormously at their stages of development and their potential, the actual lessons of leadership are pretty much the same. why do you there's a whole sort of industry around masters of business administration why do you think that doesn't exist around government so much because this probably is the best instruction manual i've come across for government and it's a bush out book i wish i could have read pre-number 10 working in there why do you think that just doesn't exist as much yeah it's a really good question and i i think the answer is because people regard government and politics as the same thing Whereas when you actually get into government, you realize there's politics and there's government.

4:33But the governing part of it is really about executive capability. The politics part of it is all about politics. So getting the right narrative, persuading people, going out and doing the glad handing, mounting the political campaign. When you're in government, it's very similar to running a company or an organization, except more complicated. because you've got lots of different interests that obstruct change. But the actual process of leadership in terms of getting things done is, you know, that's the hardest thing about government, getting anything done. Yeah. You know, I used to say to people, I'd sit in Downing Street at the beginning and think, look, I'm prime minister, I've got a huge majority in parliament.

5:23I therefore am in theory at least the most powerful person in the country so if I take a decision in that cabinet room then presumably something happens and after a time you realize nothing happens so you you have to go back and then focus on on implementation. And how do you make sure that things do happen I remember you talking on stage with William Haig as well at your conference you both having the same thing of well yeah I'm one of the most important people in the country I say something, therefore it should happen. But as you say there, it's not. What's the one thing that leaders can put in place to make sure their decisions are carried out by the system?

6:00Well, I came to the view, and this is why we changed the way the government operated at the centre in my second term, that you need an actual implementation focus, and we call it a delivery unit, but you can call it whatever you like, which take your key priorities and just track their implementation so that all the time you're getting feedback as to what you said would happen, what is happening, and what needs to bridge the gap between the two. Yeah. You have become a big proponent of technology and the power of technology when it comes to government. And this podcast is all about jobs of the future.

6:36You've written a report recently on the impact of AI on employment over the next 20 or 25 years. firstly how would you define AI because in the book you talk about it being sort of one of the most overused and widely used phrases at the moment how would Tony Blair define AI

6:59well I mean AI has got many different forms in a way but essentially what it is is is the ability to accumulate large amounts of data and to make sense of that data. That's the basic artificial intelligence. But now with generative AI, you can actually take that data and predict what would be the sensible outcome of all that data that you have so that you start to be able to write briefings and shorten all the process that goes into government. And finally, you will get a stage of artificial general intelligence when you will be able to, with all of that data, and remember the vast amount of data that we use has been created in the last decade, you know you will be able for the machine as it were to think for itself and therefore to help devise policy so you're going to be able to it is a transformative thing and you know one of the things that's most challenging about politics is that people live in their own political history and they find it very hard when something as new as this comes, because this is a revolution, right?

8:25And I always say this is the 21st century equivalent of the Industrial Revolution. People find this in politics. I'm constantly having conversations with politicians saying, this is the single biggest thing. So the report that you've just mentioned on what is the employment impact of AI, I mean, it's going to be enormous, right? So it should be the thing that occupies government really as its central mission, because it can also change the way you do health care, the way you do education, the way you do crime fighting, the way you do government. And it's going to transform the private sector. Now, if you sit, as I did just a couple of weeks ago, with a whole range of top CEOs from around the world, and I was at a conference, And I said to them, you know, where would you place artificial intelligence in the top three of your priorities?

9:19And virtually all of them said the top. Not in the top three, the top. So if you've got the, and this was a broad range of private sector organizations, not just financial companies, but retail sector, tourism. if you've got them all saying that it's a strange thing if you're going into government and it's kind of something amongst all the other things yeah but why is it that governments aren't taking it as seriously because i think as well one of the things that's different about the uh ai revolution compared to the industrial revolution is that you could be just three or four electoral cycles away from this you know sort of completely changing the economy right that is a that is an incredibly quick change when you look at the grand sweep of history etc so why are governments not taking it more seriously well they they do in a look the conversation i used to have with politicians three or four years ago were really almost like i don't know what he's talking about why does he think this i mean he's been out of frontline politics for too long okay so that was conversation then now it is yeah no i i get it it's a really big thing but you still have that they struggle I think, with how do you turn it into a political narrative?

10:33Yeah. So a lot of people say to me, yeah, but when we do focus groups, you know, they talk about technology, they kind of, you know, they look at you a bit blankly or they're actually frightened by it. And I say that the first job of the politician is to work out what they really believe is happening in the real world and what the country needs in order to succeed. and the next stage is to work out how you turn it into a political narrative. But you can't because something's difficult to define in political terms or because, for example, which it doesn't, doesn't really fit into right and left.

11:09Right. In those circumstances, your job as a politician is to find the way of translating that into a political narrative, not to say, well, it's too difficult, so I'll talk about something else, because it is the big real world change. So if you take the central problem of developed countries today is we're taxing a lot, we're spending a lot, poor outcomes. Technology is the answer to that, for sure. It's the thing that can transform your healthcare system and go right across public services and change it and produce huge savings. So you're producing better public services at lower costs. That's the challenge of the developed world.

11:49The challenge of the developing world is how do they accelerate development? Do they have to go and build the legacy systems of the West and develop nations in order to succeed? The answer is no, they don't today. They can use – we never create the NHS in the way it operates at the moment if we had these technological tools available when the NHS was created. So this is why if we're in the serious business of politics, which is about affecting change for people, not just engage in politics, in inverted commas, you've got to take this revolution seriously. It is the mission of the government, should be, of any government in the modern world.

12:33One of the things that citizens are most worried about, as you point out there, is the potential for job losses and so on. Basically, you have these four different sort of scenarios that you talk about in terms of breeze, tailwind, jet stream and whirlwind. It's really interesting the way it's kind of all break and downs on. But essentially, it looks that in the sort of breeze case scenario, it's one million jobs displaced over the course of the next 15 to 20 years, right up to three million. Now, I wondered if you were being almost a bit too optimistic on that, because when we did some polling, one in three people thought that AI could be doing their jobs by 2028.

13:10And I just thought, gosh, that is a marked sign of how people are actually thinking about this. Now, obviously, jobs evolve, and we're not going to talk about 10 million people there being displaced completely. But are people right to be worried about AI and how it will impact their jobs? Well, it will definitely impact their jobs. I mean, I think of the four scenarios, we in the end think the tailwind one, which is a relatively steady accumulation of change, is the most likely one. But I honestly think you can't really tell. It depends what happens once people see the benefits of it. And, you know, because I study a lot what's happening with technology startups and so on, it's interesting, for example, in the legal profession, you're getting a lot of startups now that are providing legal services through AI with vastly reduced workforce.

14:08So I do think you will automate a lot of processes. But I think in many cases, and this is the other thing that's hard to judge at this moment, in many cases, AI will become a co-worker and not necessarily a displacer of your job. So I think for doctors, for example, and nurses and indeed teachers, you know, AI will become a help and, you know, an aid to them. It won't necessarily put them out of a job because most people will say, OK, so AI can give you basic diagnosis and give you lots of information. It can, you know, you're able as a doctor to have at your fingertips all of medical science.

14:50but most people will still want a human mind at this stage at least to make the final decision so in those circumstances it becomes a way of increasing your productivity without necessarily displacing the job but in other cases yeah I think it will displace jobs but you know our basic experience with technology over the years is that some jobs get displaced and others get created completely although you did say something there which would be remarkably difficult for an existing politician to say, which is, you said, I don't know. And I think that is part of the problem that we have in politics and government at the moment is that everything tends to be black or white, particularly on the campaigning side.

15:30And truth be told is we don't know the impact that this is going to have. Yeah, we don't fully. But you know, one of the advantages of being outside frontline politics is you're able to say, I don't know the answer to that. One of the things that we do know, though, in the UK is we've got close to a million more people not in work now than pre the pandemic, which is a remarkable statistic. And we seem to be struggling a lot more than other countries with this. Why do you think that is? Yeah, well, I'm not sure is the honest answer, but it is a massive problem. I think that a lot of, I mean, there may be some aspects of long COVID, but then that shouldn't affect us more than it affects any other country.

16:23I think we have become very, very focused on mental health and with people self-diagnosing on mental health. I think we need a proper public conversation about that because, you know, I think it's a very, very difficult question. We're spending vastly more on mental health now. than we did a few years ago. And it's hard to see what the objective reasons for that are. And if we're not careful, we get into a position where people, you know, life has its ups and downs and everybody experiences those. And you've got to be careful of encouraging people to think they've got some sort of condition other than, you know, simply confronting the challenges of life.

17:12And so, So, you know, we need a proper public conversation about this because you really cannot afford to be spending the amount of money we're spending on mental health. And the ramp up of that just in these last few years has been dramatic. Do you think we need some sort of review or commission in regards to that? Well, I think we just, we need to, we need, and this, again, technology can help with this. It can help, by the way, there's some really interesting innovations happening in different parts of the world on how technology can help with mental health issues and problems that people have.

17:53But we need also to be helping people to understand that there are, in life, there are going to be problems, right? Now, you've got to be careful of translating those into a mental health condition rather than losing your own agency in a way to govern your own life. So I think it's very, very difficult, but it's a conversation we need to have. And like so much of the problems that we have today, they don't really fit into party lines. And I think the more that you can try and resolve some of these without putting them into that arena of political debate, partisan political debate, the better. Yeah.

18:38In terms of how government can learn from technology and technology innovators, you talk about in the book Elon Musk and how he is a sort of one extraordinary innovator and how he's almost reengineered every aspect of cars, technology and also space travel, etc. What do you make of his appointment by President Trump to the American government? Well, I think it's very interesting. It'll be interesting to see what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object. But you see, everything that we're talking about here at the Institute, because we have this whole program called the Reimagined State, is all about how you use technology to create a state that's probably significantly smaller but much more strategic.

19:30and that's I think where things are going, where the citizen is more empowered in his or her relationship with the state and you don't have a situation where you think that every problem is just going to be solved by increasing the power of the state. So we'll see what happens with the DOGE, I think they're calling it. But they're putting their finger on what I think is the challenge of modern government, which is how do you make it work more effectively? And how do you use technology to make it work more effectively at a lower cost? And look, I come across this the whole time. I mean, I've just been having a conversation earlier today with people trying to do business in Africa and seeking the help of Western agencies in, you know, allowing them to go and invest in Africa because you've got all sorts of political risks you've got to take account of and just describing the nightmare of bureaucracy they get into.

20:40And then you have this conversation with Western diplomats and politicians where they say, why is China doing so well in Africa and we're not? And I say to them, because we are hopelessly bureaucratic. And if anyone wants to get anything done, they go to the Chinese, something happens. They go to us and three years later, nothing's happened. So this is part of a bigger conversation that, again, I think, especially if you're from my side of politics, right, the progressive side that has tended always to favor the state as an answer. You've got to realize that the mood today in the Western world is one which is aligned to disruption.

21:23That exactly the same disruption that technology is creating in the private sector is disruption people want to see in the way the state operates. And if you're simply operating a status quo state, you're going to find yourself in trouble. what is your advice to business leaders going into government

21:47well usually long most of all we can talk other people but it's something you talk about quite a bit i mean i look i personally think we should be getting a lot more business skill and capability into government and i think i think we've really got to get over this notion that somehow business people come into government because they've got some profit motive of their own you know most of these business people are going to come into government because they genuinely want to help the country and use their skills to do it. And we should be welcoming them. But I mean, I have this experience when I brought business people into government, I'm afraid they just get beaten up from day one.

22:24So my advice to business people going into government is first of all, understand if you think it's going to be an easy ride, it's not. But they do have a skill set that's really important. And, you know, one of the things I talk about in the book is you've really got to understand today that in a world of rapid change, your traditional bureaucracy are not going to be the innovators. You're going to have to bring the innovators in from outside because it's not the way they work. Any system, any bureaucratic system in government is risk-averse. Yeah. Right. And the whole point about innovation is taking risk.

23:12And what people, and I'm afraid this is just, it's not a British issue, it's anywhere you go. The problem is that if you're in the civil service and the bureaucracy, you can get punished for taking a risk, but you'll never get punished for not taking a risk. And that's just the way it is. And it probably always will be like that. So if you're looking for that engine of innovation, you're going to have to look outside. Yeah. What advice would you give for leaders trying to understand technology and the progress of change? Because, for example, I think of Keir Starmer now, probably going to be prime minister for another four years at least.

23:56Technology is going to change a lot in that four years. and how can he kind of stay up to date with what's kind of happening? How can he find the time to do that? Well, you've got to, first of all, bring the capability into government. You've got to have people who are going to advise you who are doing it. But, you know, people are, we've got some great technology companies and leaders in technology in this country, all of whom would be very happy to help. You know, you've got Matt Clifford, who's advising the government at the moment, who's absolutely excellent, who's both done it and, you know, has a lot of knowledge about it.

24:31So you've got, and we've got in deep mind, we've got probably one of the finest, not the finest artificial intelligence company in the world. So there's masses of stuff we can do. The important thing with politics, and this is not just in relation to AI, but more generally, is one of the hardest things is for leaders to find the time to think strategically whilst they're dealing with the day-to-day. But you really do have to do that, especially in a fast changing world and you know one of the things i i say to leaders today is that often there are technical areas in which the leader doesn't really need to know anything about the technicalities they just need to know what the political decision or executive decision is but in this area i think you do need a certain amount of knowledge you know i've spent a lot of time over these last few years because you know technologies i've understood its importance but never tried to really understand the detail.

25:25But I have tried to do that in these last years. And I wrote a chapter in the book about it, which is people can sort of mock us as a chat GPT version of artificial intelligence. But I really tried to go back and understand how we're now in a permanent revolution of technological change. And I do think it's necessary for leaders to have at least some basic knowledge today. And how did you do that learning? Like, how did you go about it? Because I think it's really interesting. I mean, you say in the book as well, I've been surprised, shocked, and more than occasionally appalled at how much I've learned since leaving office.

26:08Yeah, it's true. It's a terrifying thing. But how have you learned about it? Because I did find that the sort of history of AI and technology really interesting. Yeah, it is really interesting. But I thought, like, it's, in a way, you could get chat GPT to churn that out for you, but actually you've got to understand it, right? And I think this is sort of the next level of education and learning that we perhaps don't understand yet. Yeah, so I spent an entire holiday, much the irritation of my family, just poring over all of the... I literally went back to the telephone and Alexander Bell and all the rest of it, how it all began and then how, you know, the first transistors were created and then you realize and how you know computers developed and then you you you get to this point where you start to understand that once you've got the mobile phone and the internet and the two are joined up then you're creating this vast amount of data and then you realize that the more data you create then the better your artificial intelligence becomes And then, of course, you get to the stage now where you've got these large language models where you're just training them on vast amounts of data.

27:24And what will happen with all of that is they'll create more data. So you'll have even more potential. And that sort of the nature of this data revolution and the consequences of it and the ability ultimately to get to, as I say, artificial general intelligence, which we're not at yet, but most people believe we will arrive at. I mean, once you understand that, then, you know, a lot of what you deal with in government becomes secondary to what the implications of that are for the way you govern. What have you used ChatGPT for? Well, I've used it for just basic things like giving me information about, you know, particular subjects.

28:11But I did a really interesting thing the other day. So I was at some conference. I won't say which conference. I won't say listening to the speech of which president. But I was listening to the speech of the president about his country and what it was doing in relation to renewable energy. And I thought, well, this is a really boring speech. And what's more, he's not really telling me very much at all. So I went off and put it through chat GPT, name of country, what they were doing on renewable energy. I got a speech the same length, much more interesting, much better, much more informative than the one he'd given.

28:51So, you know, you realize, yeah, it's, you know, chat GPT at the moment, it's a toy. But it will ultimately develop into something much, much more powerful. and you know already you you you're you're going to find whole you see government's all about process this is what i say to people in government if you're in the private sector ai is obviously important and it can improve productivity is probably the only answer to the productivity puzzle but government's all about process so think how much you could change think how much of our planning system is tied up in analysis of masses and masses of detail and the application of certain rules to it which take months and months hold everything up hold the economy back it could make all that so much quicker yeah um what there's also another another line that really struck me in the book which to you may have been a bit of a throwaway line but really hit home with me you say I've tried to build and develop businesses and not simply just think about regulating them it's a lot tougher than I thought how has it been tougher building a business than you thought um well because in government you see you just get this structure given to you so you you use the structure but then when you're building a business you've got the hiring of all the people.

30:23You've got, as you grow, we're now a large organization. You get legal, you get compliance, you get, you know, you have to try and prevent yourself becoming bureaucratic. You're constantly evolving because you realize some things work and some things don't, so you have to be able to adjust. And, you know, government can often be a problem rather than a solution. on that in mind is it a problem at the moment that non-the labour front bench have built a business or really been involved in the private sector well i i'd never i mean i was a private sector lawyer but i never built a business but you can you know you can learn a lot from talking to people and and but you've got to come with the attitude i think that business is part of the solution and not just a problem.

31:15And by the way, you know, one other thing that's important to emphasize, because whenever I talk about AI and technology, people kind of say he's going messianic on it. But I completely agree there are all sorts of problems that are going to come with this technology revolution. Huge challenges. The bad actors can use artificial intelligence as well as the good actors. And in some cases, for example, in organized crime, they're doing much better at the moment than law enforcement agencies. So I've got absolutely no doubt there are going to be massive problems. It's just, it's not a question of whether, you know, I debate this often with leaders, they say, well, is it a good thing or a bad thing?

31:53And I say to them, well, first of all, you've got to understand it's a thing. Whether it's good or bad, you can debate, but it's happening. Yeah. But do you wish that you'd had more private sector experience when you were prime minister yeah absolutely and i i mean i the private sector experience i did get was i was a lawyer in the commercial industrial sphere so i was actually interacting a lot with companies and i did learn a lot from that yeah i mean i okay it was only for seven years but i did doing employment cases for and against employers for example or doing commercial and business cases.